kbdude
Posts: 124
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2006 7:03 am

Boeing May Build 16 787s A Month

Thu Aug 02, 2007 1:10 pm

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/325864_air01.html

Was reading the above article.... got me wondering and....I played around with some numbers on a spreadsheet. Have some questions for the forum:

1. Any speculation as to what the production rates will be in 2010? 2012? or 2013? Specifically the years before the A350 EIS?
2. Boeing has stated that it has delayed the 787-10 oficial anouncement cause it cannot secure production slots for the 787-10 test planes.....although it seems like there could be plenty of slots prior to 2012...is Boeing being intentioanlly mis-leading?
3. Which Boeing partner company is the real / confirmed bottle-neck to 787 production in 2010 and beyond? Spirit? Mitsubishi?
4. How many A350XWB will be in the air by 2015?

My observations:

1. Amazing that even in that my most conservative production of 6x787 per month in 2010... there will be nearly 450 787 planes in the air by 2013 (A359 XWB EIS).
2. Seems like Boeing could have a lot of planes in the air by 2015....anywhere from 300 to 900 planes... and incredible number. With 683 firm orders between 2008 & 2013... seems like there will be a lot of 787 planes in the air.


Any comments from the forum? Sincere questions and not intended to shed a negative light on B or A!


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787 rate
 
XT6Wagon
Posts: 2644
Joined: Tue Feb 13, 2007 4:06 pm

RE: Boeing May Build 16 787s A Month

Thu Aug 02, 2007 3:24 pm

Quoting Kbdude (Thread starter):
1. Any speculation as to what the production rates will be in 2010? 2012? or 2013? Specifically the years before the A350 EIS?
2. Boeing has stated that it has delayed the 787-10 oficial anouncement cause it cannot secure production slots for the 787-10 test planes.....although it seems like there could be plenty of slots prior to 2012...is Boeing being intentioanlly mis-leading?

One of Boeings problems is that it takes time to ramp up production, but they can't start now planning for huge production. They have to get the current line up and running smoothly at a moderate level before they can demand that it go to the next level of production.

So in reality the production rate for 2010 can't be set today, but it might be set in 2008=> early 2009 based on existing problems/non-problems and desired production rate. Same for 2011 but a year later.... etc.

Right now Boeing has a real problem of everyone wants a 787 yesterday, are demanding higher production ASAP, and demanding guarenteed slots 5 years from now based on higher production rates than Boeing is currently willing to offer. Which they are not willing to do, as past experience has branded into thier memory just how stupid promising the world on the production rate can end up making for months of no planes going out the door as screwups are cleaned up and planes re-worked so they are customer ready.
 
tdscanuck
Posts: 8572
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 7:25 am

RE: Boeing May Build 16 787s A Month

Thu Aug 02, 2007 5:33 pm

Quoting Kbdude (Thread starter):
Any speculation as to what the production rates will be in 2010? 2012? or 2013? Specifically the years before the A350 EIS?

Average of 5 per month in 2008/2009, ramping up to 11-13 per month by 2012. 16 per month probably won't happen before 2013.

Quoting Kbdude (Thread starter):
Boeing has stated that it has delayed the 787-10 oficial anouncement cause it cannot secure production slots for the 787-10 test planes.....although it seems like there could be plenty of slots prior to 2012...is Boeing being intentioanlly mis-leading?

There are very few, if any, slots available before 2012. This is something that Boeing is fighting during sales campaigns now...no matter how much you want a 787, you basically can't have one until 2012/2013.

Quoting Kbdude (Thread starter):
Which Boeing partner company is the real / confirmed bottle-neck to 787 production in 2010 and beyond? Spirit? Mitsubishi?

Probably Boeing, or else one of the titanium suppliers. All of the sub-assembly suppliers have multiple tools. Once they get running smoothing, increasing rate by adding another tool shouldn't be too much of a logicstical hurdle. Boeing only has finite final assembly capacity though...until (if) they build a second production line, I think that will the the choke point. Titanium supply is the wild card. Global titanium supply is very tight and a hiccup there, or lack of increased capacity, would hit most of the major structures and systems on the aircraft.

Quoting Kbdude (Thread starter):
How many A350XWB will be in the air by 2015?

Airbus says 13-16/month by 2016. Assuming they start with 5/6 per month and use a reasonable ramp rate, there should be about 300 in service by the end of 2015.

Tom.
 
Rheinbote
Posts: 1103
Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 9:30 pm

RE: Boeing May Build 16 787s A Month

Thu Aug 02, 2007 6:24 pm

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 2):
Airbus says 13-16/month by 2016.

I think it's completely unrealistic on behalf of Airbus to plan for something like that given their demonstrated proficiency in ramping up large widebody programs effectively and efficiently. I guess they are in a very bad position for negotiating 'favourable' compensation penalty arrangements for non-compliance to delivery projections right now, so it doesn't appear advisable to add yet more risk by upping the ante on early production rates. Good poker players know where to stop.
In turn, this is a good opportunity for Boeing to have the mid-market segment swamped with 787s until Airbus can come up with a decent 350 production rate. But as others have pointed out, Boeing risks falling into their own sword in case they dare ramping up too fast, too early. So far it looks like Boeing keeps the focus on managing business risk and profitability and is not easily lured into the 'market share by number of airframes sold/delivered' trap.

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