worldtraveler
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Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 5:47 am

A look at the traffic results of each of the US network carriers along with their aircraft orders and planned growth of international service provides an interesting comparison.

Right now, AA and UA are pretty tight at the front of the pack as the largest US international carriers with AA having a slight lead so far this year.

CO is next, followed by DL and both are about 25% smaller in international size behind AA and UA.

NW isn't far behind DL>

Now when you look at the size of the middle three carriers' international expansion plans, it becomes apparent that they will probably get very close to, if not overtake AA and UA in the not too distant future.

CO and NW both have sizable 787 orders up for delivery in the near future.

However, it appears that DL has the most international growth coming as a result of its remaining 13 764 conversions, 13 transatlantic 757s coming from TW/AA, 6 and maybe 8 or more 777LRs, 10 737-700s (some of which will be used for Latin America), and some of their domestic 763s which are said to be lined up to fly summertime all-coach domestic flights (partially replacing the 764s doing the same thing now).

Is it possible that DL will become the USA's largest interrnational carrier before this decade is out?

BTW, I'd like to welcome you to my 4th a.net BD party and this thread which marks 3000 a.net posts. While the subject evokes passion, I'm happy to share it with you, my a.net friends. The occassion is all fun! So grab something cold to drink and enjoy the party. This round is on me!
 
777STL
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 6:04 am

I doubt DL will surpass AA in terms of international traffic. AA is huge in Latin America, the Carribean, and Mexico, routes that don't necessary require a large widebody to run. Who knows, it'll be interesting to see if DL can keep those second tier European routes viable. I hope they're able to sustain their rapid expansion.
PHX based
 
dutchjet
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 6:13 am

You made it to 3000.......and what an appropriate post for you to celebrate with.

Being that its your a.net birthday, I will give you the answer that you want to hear: DL will become the largest international airline in the US, it will overtake UA and AA and become the largest US carrier bar none, DL will acquire NW, US and AS causing major problems for the remaining legacies leading to their eventual downsizing and, due to DL's new strength at JFK, JetBlue will simply shut its doors. And, Boeing shall help DL out by opening up a second 787 production line dedicated exclusively for DL airplanes; thus, DL will be among the first carriers with the 787 and will be the first to acquire a huge 787 fleet.

Oh, the capital of the US will move to Atlanta........

Congrats on 3000 and 4 years at a.net, we have had our differences in the past, but its time for a good laugh, I hope that you take this post in the good-natured spirit in which it was intended.
 
Lono
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 6:16 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Thread starter):
So grab something cold to drink and enjoy the party. This round is on me!

Congrats on your 3000!!!.... and thanks for the great idea for a cold one.... I'm on it!!!

Quoting 777STL (Reply 1):
Who knows, it'll be interesting to see if DL can keep those second tier European routes viable. I hope they're able to sustain their rapid expansion.

I agree with this thought.... it will be interesting to see if DL can stay ahead of the competition....
Wally Bird Ruled the Skys!
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 6:26 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 2):
DL will acquire NW, US and AS

NW and AS are both the more likely. I would laugh VERY hard if US came begging them at the ATL door in a couple of years due to the inability of management to get any labor peace. Getting AS would be a large one for DL, since this would give dominance at SEA and a possible Asia/Pacific hub with less competition than LAX.
I agree with WorldTraveler on the likely merger scenarios in the years ahead. Moving the U.S. Capitol to ATL? If Robert Byrd (King Pork) were a Georgia senator rather than West Virginia, then you could count on it!  biggrin 
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
 
Alitalia744
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 7:46 am

WT - Happy BD and congrats on 4th and 3000th.

As for the topic at hand - could DL become the US' largest int'l airline? Good question.

My 0.02 - Short-term possibly, long-term - good question.

AA is limited in growth by their current fleet and lack of new w/b a/c deliveries for at least 3 years (next 777s come in 4 or 5 I belive) but given their cattle-car service to LatAm with AB6s, they can sustain growth given the increase in pax #s down south.

UAL? Who knows, no w/b orders and continously shifting existing routes/gauging a/c has been successful (to an extent) in sustaining short-term growth, but not sure what their long-term prospect is in terms of driving sustainability of that growth.

CO is expected to drive international growth behind the delivery of their 787 fleet which numbers 25+ now I believe. Given they are able to currently grow with their existing ops (using airplanes to the max), one can presume that the 787s will be used short-term for growth and long-term for replacement. Outside of rotating additional 757s internationally, CO is short-term limited in growth.

DL has a good platform to grow from. A few non-competitive international routes where they can command yield-premiums via first move advantage non-stop flights and a fleet of 764s which can be moved off domestic. If we go by assumption - 13 757s (exAA), 3-6 767-300s (moving to low-yielding northern euro routes), conversion of remaining 13 764s, 6+ 777LRs and a fleet of LatAm/Carib capable 73Gs, they have potential (given addition of 30+ int'l a/c) to increase international traffic beyond the competition in the near-term, providing all aircraft are operated on profit-positive, high-load factor flights.

Long-term question is what are DL's aircraft acquisition plans for the future and are they designed to further growth or replace existing a/c. The eldest 763 pushes 20 in 2010. The other thing against DL is that on average, a larger percentage of UA, AA and NWs internationally capable fleet carries more pax than the average DL bird.

Nice topic, let the speculation begin.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 2):
Oh, the capital of the US will move to Atlanta........

We all know the capital of the US is New York City. At least that's what I think.  Wink
Some see lines, others see between the lines.
 
delta7004
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 8:53 am

Keep in mind though that DL is the largest airline across the Atlantic as far as destinations and frequency grows. Since their aim right now seems to be on international expansion, I would be surprised to see them try to push on AA territory in Central/South America eventually, once they get the equipment to do it.

Quote:
DL has a good platform to grow from. A few non-competitive international routes where they can command yield-premiums via first move advantage non-stop flights and a fleet of 764s which can be moved off domestic. If we go by assumption - 13 757s (exAA), 3-6 767-300s (moving to low-yielding northern euro routes), conversion of remaining 13 764s, 6+ 777LRs and a fleet of LatAm/Carib capable 73Gs, they have potential (given addition of 30+ int'l a/c) to increase international traffic beyond the competition in the near-term, providing all aircraft are operated on profit-positive, high-load factor flights.

Actually, only 10 757s are coming from AA, and their is a good possibility of ATL-LAX/SLC, ATL/SLC/LAX-HNL being the only domestic runs by 764s within the coming months (though the whole 764 fleet should carry Biz-E configurations, as the flights to Hawaii are long and ATL-LAX/SLC should be considered "premium" with that aircraft).
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 8:53 am

First off Happy B-day WT!  Smile

Quoting WorldTraveler (Thread starter):
Right now, AA and UA are pretty tight at the front of the pack as the largest US international carriers with AA having a slight lead so far this year.

Now then, Im not sure if DL will be ahead AA and UA in terms of largest international carriers, but they definately lead the way in terms of number of international destinations served. This is what seems to work for DL. Instead of pileing on many different flights to the same destination (like AA at LHR), DL adds one or two flights to many different destinations. In my opinion this is just as important. I honestly dont have much use for DL, but the one thing I have to tip my hat to DL for is ATL. Atlanta the city isnt anything special (even though I think its a very nice city). It doesnt have that high of an O&D to many places internationally and its not even that big a city, and yet DL makes many most (but not all) destinations work from ATL that would never work otherwise.

But in short, to me it doesnt matter if they are the biggest carrier internationally, because their strategy of offering more destinations with less frequency works very well for them!

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 2):
Oh, the capital of the US will move to Atlanta........

The capital should have been moved to Los Angeles a long time ago!!!  Big grin
It is what it is...
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 9:27 am

I think it's possible for DL to become the largest, though I don't think it will last. I think DL's international route structure will be much more sensitive to an economic downturn. So when that downturn comes, DL will be forced to pull back a hefty chunk of these routes. Carriers like UA and AA would also be affected by a downturn, but I don't see them being forced to pullback as much.
 
dl767captain
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 9:48 am

DL is a strong carrier and is doeing very well after coming out of Ch. 9. DL is definately expanding but i doubt they could overtake UA and AA, but they could definately overtake CO. What will be interesting is in the future when we see what mergers will begin, UA and US obviously want to merge with someone, UA and DL would be great because DL would get the asia routes but the A320's would be an issue, AA and DL and even CO all put together would be great, NW UA and US could join forces. We would have star aliance angainst skyteam (NW would move to star aliance and AA would move to Skyteam). That is when it would get interesting, DL could jump ahead really fast by picking up another airline like CO and join forces.
 
worldtraveler
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 12:27 pm

Thank you all for the good wishes.

I do think one of the biggest determinants of how international growth will play out for each of the carriers will be what they do in Latin America. Widebody and intercontinental travel will be determined to a great extent by widebody orders and conversions. But much of Latin America can be flown with narrowbody aircraft including the 757 which can easily fly from each of the southern US hubs deep into S. America. While CO may be close to maxing out the use of its 757 fleet for international flying, AA and DL are nowhere near close to doing that. AA has the advantage in that most if not all of their 757s are the 250K lb. versions while only the ex-TW 757s are for DL. However, even DL's 232K lb. versions can cover alot of northern S. America from ATL or LAX. And the 738 and 737-700 all are very versatile aircraft for AA, CO, and DL - who are most likely to benefit from Latin American growth.

Alitalia744 has listed a good summary of the challenges and opportunities each carrier faces. I would only counter on the aircraft size piece, that DL's smaller aircraft size will make it much easier for them to start new routes. The 763 still has one of the lowest aircraft TRIP costs and with winglets it is a 6000 mile airplane. The 764 is very cost effective and is actually similarly sized to a 787-8, although w/ alot less capability. The 777LR is obviously the largest aircraft coming into DL's fleet. And if DL does order some 773ERs, their average size will grow and they will be doing it with a very cost effective airplane.

The strength of DL's international growth plan is that they have the ability to do it NOW and they are taking it to every corner of the earth. DL also has LAX which has the potential for significant int'l route development while JFK still is very Europe focused and has the ability to be developed to other regions. And of course, ATL can seem to support routes to just about anywhere.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 2:38 pm

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 9):
DL is a strong carrier and is doeing very well after coming out of Ch. 9.

..I'm sure you meant Chapter 11..... Smile
"Up the Irons!"
 
elmothehobo
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 3:04 pm

Happy A.Nut birthday WorldTraveler!

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 2):

LOL

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 7):
The capital should have been moved to Los Angeles a long time ago!!!  

The US capital, not the capital of Mexico!  duck 

I disagree, though. Consider that American has added very little longhaul service and is still, by and large, the biggest US carrier abroad, save United. When American gets additional aircraft for expansion, there is no doubt that this will remain the same. The same goes for United. Their massive Pacific network is flown entirely by 747s and 777s, that's a lot of seats Delta will need to catch up to.

Delta will, IMO, close in, especially when they get their additional aircraft, and they even stand a chance of bumping up against United - even with their huge Asian network. With more South American and European flights, and a handful of lfights to Asia, Delta could reasonably come close, but overtake them by the end of the decade? Not so sure.
 
SESGDL
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline

Sun Aug 05, 2007 3:40 pm

Here are the international RPMs for the largest US majors year-to-date: (000)

American: 28,163,530
United: 27,605,385
Continental: 22,815,288
Delta: 22,747,180
Northwest: 18,123,190

DL should surpass CO by the end of the year. But look at the statistics for the month of July: (000)

American: 4,610,154
United: 4,365,296
Delta: 4,277,230
Continental: 3,929,204
Northwest: 2,892,884

DL surpassed CO for the months of June and July in terms of international RPMs, and should pass them completely before the end of the year. In July, DL had just 300,000,000 RPMs less than AA internationally, and was less than 100,000,000 behind UA. That's quite impressive considering DL used to have a very small international status in comparison to the other US majors.

Could DL become the largest international US airline? Absolutely! And I think 3-5 years from now they will be. For July alone, DL across the Atlantic had over 3,000,000,000 RPMs, more than any other US airline in any region besides domestically. Impressive!

Jeremy
 
cslusarc
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 3:53 pm

Here's the July monthly traffic data compiled (mainline only; as reported by press release):



I don't know if anybody actually compared the data. AA actually shrunk by 4 percent and was the only airline to do so. UA and DL are like neck-on-neck. However, by July 2008 I expect DL (excluding all flying by DL Connex) to eclipse AA and UA to become the #1 airline in the international segment if DL can continue to grow internationally by 10% or more per annum.

INTERNATIONAL REVENUE
PASSENGER MILES (000)

AA 4,610,154 [down 4.0%]
UA 4,365,296 [up 1.5%]
DL 4,215,861 [up 13.7%]
CO 3,929,204 [up 6.3%]
NW 2,892,884 [up 4.2%]
US/HP 1,383,547 [up 12.4%]


TRANSATLANTIC REVENUE
PASSENGER MILES (000)
DL 3,022,884 [up 10.0%]
CO 2,092,000 [up 11.4%]
AA 1,965,160 [down 3.8%]
UA 1,603,682 [up 4.4%]
NW 1,138,767 [up 12.6%]
US 1,013,385 [up 21.1%]


LATIN AMERICA REVENUE
PASSENGER MILES (000)
AA 1,965,160 [down 3.8%]
CO 1,152,720 [up 1.0%]
DL 1,044,597 [up 21.4%]
UA 349,860 [down 18.1%]
US/HP 370,162 [down 6.1%]


PACIFIC REVENUE
PASSENGER MILES (000)
UA 2,411,754 [up 3.3%]
NW 1,754,117 [up 0.7%]
CO 684,484 [up 0.8%]
AA 482,163 [down 24.1%]
DL 148,380 [up 51.2%]

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 13):
Delta: 4,277,230

Your number includes flights op'ed by OH and other DL Connex carriers.
--cslusarc from YWG
 
SESGDL
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:02 pm

Quoting Cslusarc (Reply 14):

Your number includes flights op'ed by OH and other DL Connex carriers.

Whoops, my mistake. The numbers are rather insignificant for OH, EV, S5, and OO internationally, as the numbers went from 4,277,230 to 4,215,861. I still shouldn't have included them though.

Jeremy
 
LipeGIG
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:28 pm

The big AA advantage is their Latin America network. Not only because of the fact that they run MIA as a hub but also because many of the countries are slot protected which means DL will be not able to challenge in size for example Brazil or Argentina operations.

But they are getting advantages on Europe and other spots, and with the huge growing levels (up to 10% p.a.) as well as the additional capacity they keep, DL will be able to become 1st in 2 or 3 years.

The question is that, this new scenario, would be so profitable ?
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
FLYGUY767
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 11:17 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Thread starter):
Is it possible that DL will become the USA's largest interrnational carrier before this decade is out?

Give it less than 2 years if all of the talk is true..

The 73G, 752 and 77L are going to boost that combined with as you've mentioned the 764 conversions. Freeing of the 772 from routes such as JFK that will take on the 77L to BOM. Everything will come into play starting next summer. It will be a very interesting year for Delta Air Lines, remember dont rule anything out!

In reference to American Airlines they have not been in a worse situation for years. It truly is sad, perhaps it was a fault of their for not having claimed bankruptcy. The recent labor problems combined with some rather inept decisions are leaving the airline in the cold as far as expansion is concerned. American Airlines for years has had a love affair with frequency over multiplicity.

Delta Air Lines has an advantage being that the business person headed to Milan, Seoul, Dubai, Moscow, Istanbul, Johannesburg, Kiev, and so forth can use one airline. That same person can fly throughout the country on a very dense route network. While American Airlines prefers to put almost all of their European eggs in one basket (London), Delta has made a wise decision by diversifying its product offerings. American Airlines could have made the push to build up Los Angeles but sticks with what it has and basically has added little if nothing to the Los Angeles market for the past 2-3 years.

I further think that a few of the worst decisions American Airlines made were:

*Introducing then Dropping MRTC
*Dropping service to Milan, and Stockholm
*Dropping London and Honolulu from St. Louis
*Dropping the Narita slots of San Jose and Seattle and adding nothing
*Starting Shanghai and Delhi from Chicago and not Dallas
*Starting Osaka from Dallas, Nagoya from Chicago and not Los Angeles
*Trying to rebuild San Jose
*Reno Air Merger
*TWA Merger

We cant solve all of the problems in one day, but I am happy to see Delta Air Lines think outside of the box and expand while its counterpart American Airlines expansion is only to markets already served with redundant frequencies.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Thread starter):
BTW, I'd like to welcome you to my 4th a.net BD party and this thread which marks 3000 a.net posts. While the subject evokes passion, I'm happy to share it with you, my a.net friends. The occassion is all fun! So grab something cold to drink and enjoy the party. This round is on me!

HAPPY 3000!
 birthday   bigthumbsup   birthday   bigthumbsup   birthday 

-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
2travel2know
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 11:26 pm

There's one very important fact that works against DL becoming U.S. largest international airline: DL doesn't have a hub in MIA.
When it comes to have the most attractive prescence in Latinamerica and The Caribbean, having some sort of big MIA (or FLL as an alternative) opeation is a must. Look what happened when UA drop its tiny MIA hub operation, where are they now in Latinamerica? and to make matters worse, AA does have a hub in SJU (even if that one it's not of any big use for AA Latinameican operations).
There's a lot DL could accomplish from its ATL mega-hub with some flights out of JFK, LAX, CVG (!) and even SLC (!), but they would still be less popular than AA MIA fligths.
If DL wants to grow big in Latinamerica/Caribbean they would need to find a partner "south of the border" which they could count as an extra hub.
I don't work for COPA Airlines!
 
FLYGUY767
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 11:38 pm

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 18):
When it comes to have the most attractive prescence in Latinamerica and The Caribbean, having some sort of big MIA (or FLL as an alternative) opeation is a must.

It is not a must and both Continental Airlines and Delta Air Lines are proving that day in and day out. Look at the presence of Continental Airlines to Central and South America from Houston and Newark. Look at the presence of Delta Air Lines from Atlanta, and New York to Central and South America. Not to mention the Delta Air Lines buildup to Mexico and Central America from Los Angeles. An airline does not need Miami or Ft. Lauderdale to have an attractive presence in Latin America, the Caribbean, or so forth. By your measure the only airports that should have service to Asia are Los Angeles and San Francisco.

The airliners.net ideals about what airlines need to do, or what markets can and cant be served are really getting old..

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 18):
There's one very important fact that works against DL becoming U.S. largest international airline: DL doesn't have a hub in MIA

So what does that have to do with anything?

Delta Air Lines has service to Central America from Los Angeles, New York, and Atlanta
Delta Air Lines has service to South America from New York, and Atlanta

Where is it written that Delta needs to have a hub in Miami to be the largest U.S. airline?

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 18):
There's a lot DL could accomplish from its ATL mega-hub with some flights out of JFK, LAX, CVG (!) and even SLC (!), but they would still be less popular than AA MIA fligths.

What are you talking about? Delta Air Lines and Continental Airlines are both on the heels of American Airlines when it comes to service to Latin and South America. Perhaps you are confusing Delta and Continental with United Airlines whose presence in the Latin and South American market is near nothing of what it once was.

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 18):
If DL wants to grow big in Latinamerica/Caribbean they would need to find a partner "south of the border" which they could count as an extra hub

They have one.. It is called Aero Mexico

-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
isitsafenow
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Sun Aug 05, 2007 11:39 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Thread starter):
NW isn't far behind DL>

I not much to strongly disagree, but NW is light years behind DL in Fleet size and boardings.....
sorry.....
safe
If two people agree on EVERYTHING, then one isn't necessary.
 
dl767captain
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 1:03 am

Quoting Cslusarc (Reply 14):

It looks like AA is losing market share all over the place, DL could definately overtake them with growth in a couple years. The only problem is the lack of DLs pacific routes, i guess they could partner with other airlines. But what will happen in 4 years for AA if nothing happens? Will they agree to be bought out or merge with DL or CO (since they are both in the same alliance they could split the needed planes and routes) but im sure it would be a while before american is done
 
FLYGUY767
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 1:12 am

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 21):
It looks like AA is losing market share all over the place, DL could definately overtake them with growth in a couple years.

I think that one of the main problems with American Airlines is their lack of a clean operation. Continental Airlines is a perfect example of a clean operation. Continental operates 2 definitve hubs at EWR, CLE, and IAH. To a lessor extent GUM is a base albeit for Continental Micronesia. The only Focus City if you will is Los Angeles. Thus each hub serves a specific purpose. At American Airlines it is not that easy MIA, SJU, DFW, ORD, STL. Focus Cities are at LAX, JFK, LGA, BOS, RDU. Part of what you can see above is that American Airlines is truly trying to be everything to everyone. This same problem is what plagues United Airlines with their hubs at SFO, LAX, DEN, IAD, ORD.

-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
Acey
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 1:18 am

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 21):
DL could definately overtake them with growth in a couple years.

It's going to take longer than a couple of years, but it could happen.
If a man hasn't discovered something that he will die for, he isn't fit to live. -- Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
FLYGUY767
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 1:22 am

Quoting Acey (Reply 23):
It's going to take longer than a couple of years, but it could happen.

Why longer.... They are recieving 752ER, 77L, and 73G very soon.. All of which will help them surpass American Airlines..

-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 1:31 am

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 19):
Where is it written that Delta needs to have a hub in Miami to be the largest U.S. airline?

You certainly don't need to have a hub in MIA to be the largest. However, if you want to actually make a profit to Latin America that's a different story. I think many would be surprised if they saw DL's financial performance to Latin America.

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 17):
In reference to American Airlines they have not been in a worse situation for years. It truly is sad, perhaps it was a fault of their for not having claimed bankruptcy. The recent labor problems combined with some rather inept decisions are leaving the airline in the cold as far as expansion is concerned. American Airlines for years has had a love affair with frequency over multiplicity.

I think you are being a tad over dramatic here. You make it sound as if AA is losing hundreds of millions of dollars. Just because AA isn't expanding like crazy, doesn't mean the company is failing. That's not to say AA doesn't have problems, they do.

Trust me, it's just as well that every carrier isn't expanding in the fashion that DL is. First, it would trash international yields. Second, it would set the industry up for a massive collapse when the next recession comes.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 1:41 am

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 17):
I further think that a few of the worst decisions American Airlines made were:

*Introducing then Dropping MRTC
*Dropping service to Milan, and Stockholm
*Dropping London and Honolulu from St. Louis
*Dropping the Narita slots of San Jose and Seattle and adding nothing
*Starting Shanghai and Delhi from Chicago and not Dallas
*Starting Osaka from Dallas, Nagoya from Chicago and not Los Angeles
*Trying to rebuild San Jose
*Reno Air Merger
*TWA Merger

I agree with most of these as well. AA could turn DFW in to what ATL is for DL (and I think it could be just a successful), and they choose not to. The DFW are has about the same O&D as ATL and actually has about 1 million more people living in the metro area than does ATL. But AA has more hubs to choose from than does DL. Internationally, DFW is underserved by AA.
It is what it is...
 
MastaHanky
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 1:47 am

I think one of the wildcards for Delta is going to be Africa. There's a lot of potential there that's just being given away to AF, KL, BA and LH that they can take for themselves. A JFK-CAI has been hinted at for quite a while, and it wouldn't surprise me to see it announced sometime this year (service probably wouldn't start until next year of course). We all know there are a bunch of other possibilities like NBO and CMN.

It will be interesting to see if they are successfully able to cope with the issues working out of LOS. What they learn there could definitely help them in the near future for other African markets.
 
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 2:07 am

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 17):
I further think that a few of the worst decisions American Airlines made were:

*Introducing then Dropping MRTC
*Dropping service to Milan, and Stockholm
*Dropping London and Honolulu from St. Louis
*Dropping the Narita slots of San Jose and Seattle and adding nothing
*Starting Shanghai and Delhi from Chicago and not Dallas
*Starting Osaka from Dallas, Nagoya from Chicago and not Los Angeles
*Trying to rebuild San Jose
*Reno Air Merger
*TWA Merger

I agree with the MRTC fiasco, they should have never started that. As well as the TWA merger which brought them nothing they could not have had if they waited a few more months for TWA to fold under it's own weight. However how is dropping Honolulu from St.Louis a bad decision, Hawaii is a tourist destination. Why waste a widebody on a leisure destination from a hub they don't need?

Since we are discussing DL we can mention their boneheaded decisions within the last 7 years.

Song,pilots preventing earlier 777 deliveries
building a new terminal in Boston which sits half empty while canceling a Terminal Redevelopment at JFK which is antiquated, crowded and down right miserable.
Then there's the knuckle head move of the decade dropping LAX-MEX and letting a competitor take over the route, and a year or two later announcing a build up of LAX to an International focus city.

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 17):
The 73G, 752 and 77L are going to boost that combined with as you've mentioned the 764 conversions. Freeing of the 772 from routes such as JFK that will take on the 77L to BOM

10 737-700s, 10 757-200s and 6 777-200LRs. This is not alot of growth, not enough to challenge AA or UAL. DL still has not signed on to the 787 program, at this point who knows if or when they will be able to secure delivery slots. DL has the capability for short term growth, however past 2009 the ability to transfer 767s to International service is going to dry up. At that point CO starts taking delivery of 25 787s, plus the unspecified options. That gives them the advantage post 2008. Besides the substantial firm orders CO has with Boeing for 737-800s, 737-900ERs and 787-8, 787-9s they also have 92 additional options for any type of 737 and 787. That's alot of growth potential, of which CO will realize.

I don't know who will become the USA's Largest international airline in 5 years, however to think that AA, CO, UAL International growth will be dormant while DL's growth continues un abated kind of flies in the face of reality.
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 3:10 am

Thanks FlyPNS1 & STT757 for providing some balance.

I now that the NW crew shortage/flight cancelations have passed, AA is rapidly becoming a.net's favorite airline to bash.

Each airline has a different strategy and are attempting to do different things in the short term. Up until this point, DL has basically been rearranging the furniture so to speak. Redeploying aircraft off of different routes, canceling some, downsizing others. Look at what DL was operating domestically 3-5 years ago versus now.

Bashing another airline for decisions that were made 5-10 years ago under different economic conditions and different state of the industry is irrelevant. Lets not forget all of the decisions that look stupid after the fact that were commited by DL. Hindsight is so easy, but no one can predict the future.

So much speculation out of the DL crowd these days.....let me know when the press release issued, and better yet let me know when the first flight is flown on any of these specific routes.
 
worldtraveler
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 4:11 am

Very good discussion.... do I need to give my Amex to the bartender to start round two?

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 16):
The big AA advantage is their Latin America network. Not only because of the fact that they run MIA as a hub but also because many of the countries are slot protected which means DL will be not able to challenge in size for example Brazil or Argentina operations.

Yet every advantage can only carry you so far if you don't continue to grow and develop it. I have no doubt that AA will grow and protect its S. American franchise but CO and DL are looking for every opportunity to grow in the region, with DL particularly focusing on deep S. America where AA makes most of its money in Latin America.

Also, the US and Argentina have signed a new treaty that provides more than enough opportunities for several new routes.

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 18):
There's one very important fact that works against DL becoming U.S. largest international airline: DL doesn't have a hub in MIA.

While I agree with you that you must have a presence in the largest US region of the country for a particular foreign region (ie DL knew they had to acquire a presence in NYC if they wanted to be the dominant airline to Europe and thus they bought Pan Am's assets), DL is really not aiming to overtake AA to Latin America. RIght now, DL is on track to be a very strong 2nd and they are doing that by serving every region of the US to Latin America EXCEPT for S. Florida to Latin America. DL is actually quite competitive in the central Florida to Latin America market and there are still opportunities for growth w/o going after the S. FLA market. Only when DL's growth is stalled and they lose contracts because they don't serve S. FLA to Latin America will they turn their attention to the S. Florida market.

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 21):
The only problem is the lack of DLs pacific routes,

Which AA is not overly strong at either. But if DL opens some of the Pacific routes that are rumored for introduction next spring, they will be making a pretty big leap toward being a player in the region again. And if LAX-Asia happens, they will be in a better position in terms of serving the largest Asia-US markets and also serving all of the US to Asia at the same time (ie...not putting itself in the same position as they are in with MIA-Latin America).

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 25):
You certainly don't need to have a hub in MIA to be the largest. However, if you want to actually make a profit to Latin America that's a different story. I think many would be surprised if they saw DL's financial performance to Latin America.

DL has not consistently made money because it has been throwing alot of capacity into Latin America, including alot of beach destinations. You'll notice that there is a shift going on from vacation to ethnic destinations at Delta. And from DL's last quarterly reports, they are moving very quickly to becoming on par with other carriers in Latin America when it comes to revenue.

I'll also remind you that AA is full defense mode against NK who is attacking their MIA to Latin America system all the way down to Peru. AA's profits in S. America will be hit if NK comes even close to succeeding.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 28):
Since we are discussing DL we can mention their boneheaded decisions within the last 7 years.

of course, it's only fair. The real winners in life, though, don't continue to stare at their navel but figure out how to learn from their mistakes. DL used bankruptcy as a chance to completely redefine itself - something no other carrier has done to the degree DL has.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 29):
AA is rapidly becoming a.net's favorite airline to bash.

There is some truth to that but the point is not to bash any airline. There are many of us that want to see AA fix its problems and succeed. Unfortunately, there are far too many stumbling blocks that AA is not addressing and until they do they won't be back in the game.

---

As some have shown by the traffic statistics that I referenced, my proposition that DL could become the US' largest international carrier is not so far-fetched.

I don't think DL has being the largest int'l airline as a goal but there are clear opportunities to become a global carrier like the US has not ever seen and do it profitably.

Given that DL was once the largest domestic carrier and held that title for a number of years, it isn't hard to believe that DL could take that title in the international arena.

Other carriers need to move more quickly and devote more resources to growing their international systems. There are lots of growth opportunities and DL is finding them.
 
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 4:40 am

I think its how you describe "largest"."

Fleet?

Employees?

Flights/day?

All vary from airline to airline.

I do know that using some category, Delta and AA used to flip flop every few years.
"Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital. Capital is only the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital, and deserves much the higher consideration"
 
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline

Mon Aug 06, 2007 4:44 am

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 18):
There's a lot DL could accomplish from its ATL mega-hub with some flights out of JFK, LAX, CVG (!) and even SLC (!), but they would still be less popular than AA MIA fligths.

Who cares? Not every airline needs a hub in MIA for service to Latin America. People said ATL-Latin America wouldn't work for DL in the late 1990s and look what has happened. Latin America is a vastly growing market business-wise and other, and will continue to be. MIA will remain uncontested for service to Latin America as will JFK for service to Europe (which DL DOES have, and which is a larger market than MIA-Latin America), and LAX for service to Asia. But that didn't stop UA from having SFO as its Pacific gateway. UA's MIA hub didn't work, so believing that you must be in MIA for a successful Latin American operation is insane. DL didn't even serve Latin America 12 years ago and look where they are now.

Quoting Acey (Reply 23):
It's going to take longer than a couple of years, but it could happen.

It will take just 2-3 years, and at the rate they've been growing in the past year it would only take a year. But DL's going to slow that growth a little now that the biggest part of their expansion is complete.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 25):
I think many would be surprised if they saw DL's financial performance to Latin America.

As would people of some of AA's routes. Many airlines operate "prestige" routes. For example, I've heard numerous times that AA, UA, NW, and FL MSP-Chicago operations are unprofitable; but because the route is so important airlines suffer the losses anyway. It's the same for major airlines' domestic operations. Why is it that every airline serves all the major cities? They CERTAINLY aren't all profitable, but they simply have to. And DL's quarterly profits are indicative of their overall operation. They aren't hurting too bad, and ATL-GRU and ATL-SCL are some of DL's most profitable routes, so they're doing something right.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 28):
I don't know who will become the USA's Largest international airline in 5 years, however to think that AA, CO, UAL International growth will be dormant while DL's growth continues un abated kind of flies in the face of reality.

It certainly won't go uncontested, but no airline will grow at the rate DL did/is/will. CO, for example, has been expanding internationally at the rate of 5-7% annually, but due to DL's 15-18% growth, will be overtaken by year's end.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 29):
So much speculation out of the DL crowd these days.....let me know when the press release issued, and better yet let me know when the first flight is flown on any of these specific routes.

There's quite of bit of inside info that the "DL crowd (which is not a good name, BTW, LOL)" has, it's not purely speculation. Things have been floated around inside the airline, certainly not all of them will happen, but a lot of it will.

Jeremy
 
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 5:09 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 30):
I don't think DL has being the largest int'l airline as a goal but there are clear opportunities to become a global carrier like the US has not ever seen and do it profitably.

Would it help to resurrect the PANAM logo?  Smile
 
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 5:10 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 28):


10 737-700s, 10 757-200s and 6 777-200LRs. This is not alot of growth, not enough to challenge AA or UAL.

Average capacity on the 737-700 in a two-class configuration is: 124
Latin American at one roundtrip per day within a six month period Delta would gain: 44,640 pax
Taking in all 10 frames Delta could gain: 892, 800 pax

Average capacity on the 777-200 in a two-class configuration is: 268
One flight per day within a six month period Delta would gain: 48, 240 pax
Taking in all 6 frames Delta could gain: 578, 880 pax

Average capacity on the 757-200 in a two-class configuration is: 175
One European roundtrip per day within a six month period Delta would gain: 63,000 pax
Taking in all 10 frames Delta could gain: 1, 260, 000 pax

When all is said and done this new frames will offer Delta up to additional 2, 731, 680 pax seats per year

What was that about not a lot of growth?

Still not enough to challenge American Airlines or United Airlines?

Quoting MastaHanky (Reply 27):
A JFK-CAI has been hinted at for quite a while, and it wouldn't surprise me to see it announced sometime this year (service probably wouldn't start until next year of course). We all know there are a bunch of other possibilities like NBO and CMN.

JFK-CAI, JFK-CMN, JFK-XXX-NBO are all being talked about..

I would go a step further to add that ALG, ABJ, HRE, and CPT may be added as well..

-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 5:18 am

I would venture that the next "airline" to take the title of largest U.S. will be due to a merger of two of the top five or six, since I don't think we have seen an end to airline consolidation. Something along the lines of the AF/KL merger in Europe...

However, I am not well versed enough with regard which airline routes are most compatible for merger, nor do I know which airlines are either interested in such mergers or acquisitions, or may be vulnerable to hostile takeover. That is all outside my area of expertise, and would be more of an interested observed if such a discussion were to evolve in this thread...
I come in peace
 
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 5:21 am

And the DL love fest continues.......

Two questions:

1. Where are the airplanes to fly all of these routes coming from? There are a huge number of routes being discussed in this thread, including some longhaul and ULH services that require 1.5 to 2 airplanes per day to operate. More routes than can possibly be flown by the current DL fleet plus the airplanes on order are all being discussed as ""sure things"" that will be announced within the next year or two? What gives?

2. While DL has had remarkable success growing Latin America out of ATL, DL has had some difficulty with ""secondary markets"" in the region that did not work out of ATL.....ATL-Latin America has not been a ""home run"" for DL. To address this issue, there was discussion that DL, in addition to everything else being discussed herein, would utilize FLL as an additional Latin American gateway city to tap into the South Florida-Latin America market which is quite important; have those plans been shelved?
 
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 5:27 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 36):
Where are the airplanes to fly all of these routes coming from?

This is long term expansion. Wait until Delta orders 787s.
The proper term is "on final" not "on finals" bud...
 
worldtraveler
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 5:33 am

Quoting KhelmDTW (Reply 31):
I think its how you describe "largest"."

Revenue Passenger Miles, the industry standard for measuring traffic.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 36):
DL has had some difficulty with ""secondary markets"" in the region that did not work out of ATL

Precious few failures out of over 50 new routes.

Quoting Evan767 (Reply 37):
Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 36):
Where are the airplanes to fly all of these routes coming from?


Including the 757s which are transoceanic capable, DL is looking at over 30 transoceanic capable aircraft coming online in the next 2 years - that is almost twice the amount of aircraft that have been redeployed so far.

The 737-700s and any domestic aircraft flying to Latin America is icing on the cake - as it would be for AA or CO or any other US carrier that adds Latin America flights (including NK). The rumored MD90 acquisitions would help to free up 738s and 757s for Latin America.
 
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 5:33 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 36):
To address this issue, there was discussion that DL, in addition to everything else being discussed herein, would utilize FLL as an additional Latin American gateway city to tap into the South Florida-Latin America market which is quite important; have those plans been shelved?

I think it would be foolish for DL to establish a Latin American Hub at FLL unless there are dual IFR landings available, and longer runways. At some point they may want to serve more than areas in the Caribbean.
 
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 5:37 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 36):
1. Where are the airplanes to fly all of these routes coming from? There are a huge number of routes being discussed in this thread, including some longhaul and ULH services that require 1.5 to 2 airplanes per day to operate. More routes than can possibly be flown by the current DL fleet plus the airplanes on order are all being discussed as ""sure things"" that will be announced within the next year or two? What gives?

STT757 has already answered that question in a previous post he made:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 28):
10 737-700s, 10 757-200s and 6 777-200LRs.

Keep in mind as is the case with Seoul and Dubai the routes are not flown daily and hence do not require that many frames to operate the service, as they are less than daily markets "at current". In essence the 6 777-200LR could open from 4-6 new markets for Delta Air Lines.

-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 5:44 am

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 19):
They have one.. It is called Aero Mexico

Whose hub isn't the best location (geographically or altitude wise) for amost all of Latinamerica and Caribbean but does have O/D.
There's an airline which soon be joining SkyTeam that could be a better partner for DL.

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 19):
An airline does not need Miami or Ft. Lauderdale to have an attractive presence in Latin America, the Caribbean, or so forth.



Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 25):
You certainly don't need to have a hub in MIA to be the largest. However, if you want to actually make a profit to Latin America that's a different story. I think many would be surprised if they saw DL's financial performance to Latin America.



Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 30):
Only when DL's growth is stalled and they lose contracts because they don't serve S. FLA to Latin America will they turn their attention to the S. Florida market.

Travel Agent experience; Latiamerican passengers think Miami. When they discover how less stressful is to fly via IAH or ATL then they would keep flying with CO or DL (unless they are flying to South Florida).

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 32):
UA's MIA hub didn't work, so believing that you must be in MIA for a successful Latin American operation is insane.

IMHO UA MIA hub didn't work because UA wasn't commited to MIA.
They only had domestic flights from/to its hubs and a couple of key airports they added for the hub operation, also some destinations they inherit from Pan Am weren't going to work with the late night / early morning hub hours so were left with very few conections (mostly MCO, IAD and ORD). Another think, if UA knew they were going to feel the preassure from AA in MIA, they could have choosen to move to FLL and build up its Latinameican hub from there.. still good enough to serve Miami.
I don't work for COPA Airlines!
 
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 5:57 am

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 32):
Many airlines operate "prestige" routes.

True. So is DL operating Latin America as a prestige region?

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 32):
It certainly won't go uncontested, but no airline will grow at the rate DL did/is/will.

Which is probably a smart thing. While I'm sure most carriers would love to have a few more widebodies for expansion, they aren't that envious of what DL is doing.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 30):
Other carriers need to move more quickly and devote more resources to growing their international systems. There are lots of growth opportunities and DL is finding them.

To some extent yes, other carriers need to grow their international systems. However, few carriers want to load their systems with marginal international routes that will collapse when the economy weakens. The real test of all this international expansion is how well it holds up when times are bad. Everyone seems to forget that international traffic can be extremely volatile and not very profitable over the long term (profits in good times are quickly wiped out by losses in the bad times).
 
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 6:00 am

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 41):
Whose hub isn't the best location (geographically or altitude wise) for amost all of Latinamerica and Caribbean but does have O/D.
There's an airline which soon be joining SkyTeam that could be a better partner for DL.

Copa will further SkyTeams presence in Latin and South America by leaps and bounds yet Copa itself does not fly to enough US gateways to make it competitive for the average American traveller against the likes of Delta Air Lines and Continental Airlines.

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 41):
IMHO UA MIA hub didn't work because UA wasn't commited to MIA.

100% Agreed...

 praise  praise 

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 41):
Travel Agent experience; Latiamerican passengers think Miami. When they discover how less stressful is to fly via IAH or ATL then they would keep flying with CO or DL (unless they are flying to South Florida).

Remember the term Travel Agent. While I am well aware the Latin and South Americans are still very heavily reliant upon their Travel Agents that is changing day in and day out. As Grandma passes on the grandchildren are educated to use the internet. So within the next 10-15 years you are going to see the need for a Travel Agent in these markets vastly reduced much more so than they are currently.

-JD
Summer Trip 2007: DEN HAAG>DUBAI>LONDON>VERONA>COSTA SMERALDA>CAPRI
 
jacobin777
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 6:34 am

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 17):

*Introducing then Dropping MRTC

-pax in the end didn't want to pay...they should have had E+ on their B777's which would have provided a nice small revenue (like it has been doing for the, BA's, NZ's, VS's of the world). I certainly would (willing) pay for that extra seat pitch and service... yes 

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 17):
*Dropping the Narita slots of San Jose and Seattle and adding nothing

....while I don't know of the figures out of SEA...SJC-NRT lost around $15 million in the last few year(s)-Fellow A.netter MAH4546 knows more about the numbers than I do, but I think took the numbers from one of his posts.

AA needed around 25-30 pax per day for the flight to break even, especially given that they had lost some key cargo revenues.

Some better advertising and probably a plane like the B787-8 might make the route profitable possibly.

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 17):
*Starting Shanghai and Delhi from Chicago and not Dallas

ORD-DEL has been a success (contrary to what's being posted)....load factor has increased in 2007 over 2006 (and while that doesn't mean the route is profitable, fares aren't cheap and upgrades are hard to get)....

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 17):
*Dropping London and Honolulu from St. Louis

...neither route, especially low-yielding HNL could have been supported. STL just didn't have the feed to London, especially given how many frequencies are available from STL-ORD then ORD-LHR...

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 17):
*Starting Osaka from Dallas, Nagoya from Chicago and not Los Angeles

Don't know too much about Osaka, but even with the Toyota contract loss to UA, ORD-NGO was still profitable, but the B777's were needed for more profitable routes.

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 17):
*Trying to rebuild San Jose

....they have tried, can't blame them....SJC is one of those airports which has always "tipping on the balance" of being really good or bad..unfortunately its been the latter lately...

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 17):
*Reno Air Merger

...don't know too much about it...

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 17):
*TWA Merger

..took out a competitor...didn't pay too much for TWA....

...and I actually preferred the TWA B757's in the AA fleet than AA's B757's..

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 17):
but I am happy to see Delta Air Lines think outside of the box

..if DL does well, then they deserve credit for thinking outside of the box.... thumbsup 

Quoting MastaHanky (Reply 27):
I think one of the wildcards for Delta is going to be Africa.

..and for AA

Quoting Evan767 (Reply 37):
Wait until Delta orders 787s.

..they'll have to wait in line....not to mention, they will be ordering B787's late this year or early next year (at the earliest)....

DL is fortunate in that they have exited bankruptcy during the "up-cycle" in aviation.....the true test of DL will be what happens during the next eventual downturn (and it will happen, this industry is quite cyclical in nature)...
"Up the Irons!"
 
dutchjet
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RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 7:35 am

Quoting FLYGUY767 (Reply 40):
Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 36):
1. Where are the airplanes to fly all of these routes coming from? There are a huge number of routes being discussed in this thread, including some longhaul and ULH services that require 1.5 to 2 airplanes per day to operate. More routes than can possibly be flown by the current DL fleet plus the airplanes on order are all being discussed as ""sure things"" that will be announced within the next year or two? What gives?

STT757 has already answered that question in a previous post he made:

Quoting STT757 (Reply 28):
10 737-700s, 10 757-200s and 6 777-200LRs

And, add the remaining 764ERs that will go international:

These are following routes that ""THE Delta GANG"" says are certain to be launched in the near term future (from this and another current thread titled DL's LAX expansion):

1. JFK-TLV (announced)
2. JFK-NRT
3. JFK-EZE
4. JFK-EDI
5. Three or four additional JFK-Europe routes that can work with the 752.
6. The new JFK-Central American routes that have been announced.
7. ATL-ICN to go daily.
8. ATL-DXB to go daily.
9. ATL-PVG
10. ATL-PEK
11. ATL-HKG
12. Five or six additional ATL-Latin America/Mexico/Caribbean routes.
13. SLC-CDG
14. LAX-NRT
15. LAX-NGO
16. LAX-ICN
17. LAX-HKG
18. LAX-Australia (this week its BNE, last week it was SYD, the week before that, MEL)
19. LAX-GRU-GIG
20. LAX-EZE
21. LAX-SCL
22. LAX-LIM
23. Strengthening service on LAX- Central America routes.
24. If Brazil opens up, service from ATL to REC, SAL, MAO and/or BSB.
25. ATL-Cordoba

And, I am sure that there are more......if Delta can pull this off with their existing fleet and the announced orders, then there are even more creative than we realize. And, DL's supposed order for 125 787s does not count, it was said that the above mentioned routes would be introduced in the next one to three years; its unlikely that DL will have a 787 in revenue service in that time frame.

So I ask again, what is the real story here?

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 38):
Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 36):
DL has had some difficulty with ""secondary markets"" in the region that did not work out of ATL

Precious few failures out of over 50 new routes

I hate to disagree, after all this is your party, but the secondary latin american markets out of ATL have been very hit or miss for DL....DL tried a lot of unusual routes (everything from Merida to Fort De France) and the results were not great. Some of route were simply odd (the French Caribbean is beautiful but ""off beat""), in other cases it was using the wrong airplane (Ponce comes to mind, there is no reason why Atlanta-Ponce should not have been a big success, but regional jets have no place on these services) and some other routes are just hanging on. I give DL credit for trying, but even the ATL mega super hub has some limitations.

No one answered my question........is the FLL gateway idea not happening for sure?
 
SESGDL
Posts: 2613
Joined: Sat Jan 13, 2001 6:25 am

RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 8:06 am

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 42):
True. So is DL operating Latin America as a prestige region?

No more so than AA is. Not every AA route to Latin America is profitable you know?

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 45):
No one answered my question........is the FLL gateway idea not happening for sure?

Not likely to happen, as FLL-SDQ performed very poorly. NK's expansion from FLL probably didn't help DL's cause either. It's still up in the air, however, if MIA could potentially become DL's new Latin American gateway as first speculated. DL's South Florida presence is second only to AA, and DL has become much better known throughout Latin America. We shall see.

Jeremy
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 13174
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 8:13 am

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 45):
No one answered my question........is the FLL gateway idea not happening for sure?

It was MIA originally, then FLL.

I think Alan Greenspan said it best, "Irrational exuberance"

I think that says it all.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
MastaHanky
Posts: 224
Joined: Mon May 29, 2006 7:02 am

RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 8:32 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 44):
Quoting MastaHanky (Reply 27):
I think one of the wildcards for Delta is going to be Africa.

..and for AA

Absolutely. I think AA would love to start a variety of routes from both JFK and MIA to Africa. It'll be interesting to watch to see who can get their foot in the door first.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 45):
These are following routes that ""THE Delta GANG"" says are certain to be launched in the near term future (from this and another current thread titled DL's LAX expansion):

The only ones of those I'll put money on being started within a year are #1, #4, #5 and #24. The rest I'll believe when I see a press release.
 
worldtraveler
Posts: 3417
Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2003 6:18 am

RE: Will DL Become The USA's Largest Int'l Airline?

Mon Aug 06, 2007 8:43 am

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 41):
Travel Agent experience; Latiamerican passengers think Miami.

no passengers think lowest fare. if a travel agent can provide it via MIA, fine. Otherwise, they'll go through Timbuktoo if that's how they have to get there...and by booking through the neighborhood 7-11.

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 41):
IMHO UA MIA hub didn't work because UA wasn't commited to MIA.

No, UA couldn't compete against a very strong AA. It made no sense for UA to throw money into a market that lost money by boatloads.

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 42):
While I'm sure most carriers would love to have a few more widebodies for expansion, they aren't that envious of what DL is doing.

They ARE envious of DL's operating profit margin which was above AA, CO, and US in the most recent quarter. If DL can pull it off on the bottom line, that is what counts.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 44):
DL is fortunate in that they have exited bankruptcy during the "up-cycle" in aviation.....

I'm sure you don't want to acknowledge it but DL just might have waited until the end of the network carrier BK cycle so they had some advantages, including a relatively strong economy. The fact that DL reorganized faster than any of the carriers in the 2000 BK cycle also didn't hurt.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 45):

And, I am sure that there are more......

keep in mind that a.net members don't allocate DL's resources. Their route suggestions may be of interest but there are some listed which are not likely at least in the near term and others not mentioned that probably will happen...like ATL-LOS which has been announced but not started.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 45):
the secondary latin american markets out of ATL have been very hit or miss for DL....

You've still managed to pick out less than a handful out of failed markets out of more than 50 added in Latin America alone. And you also fail to mention that DL is increasing its RASM in Latin America while continuing to add capacity... the same thing it is doing in transatlantic markets.

Quoting SESGDL (Reply 46):
Not likely to happen, as FLL-SDQ performed very poorly.

Neither DL or AA knew at the time the route was announced that NK was going to turn its FLL expansion into a full frontal assault on AA. It is in DL's best interests to stay out of S. Florida for the time being. And if you noticed from the schedule, DL was basically using airplane time on the FLL-SDQ route which would have otherwise not been used for anything... so the cost was pretty low.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 47):
It was MIA originally, then FLL.

again, DL never used the term hub to describe anything about S. Florida to Latin America. It could have happened but it certainly won't until NK and AA come to a meeting of the minds.

Dutch,
I'm sure you find this as nothing but a DL love-fest but the reality is that it is a logical discussion about DL's potential int'l network size based on some pretty public pieces of information.

After nearly 7 years and over 7000 posts, you know that a.netters like change. And DL is delivering it in spades.

You do realize that DL will deploy over 2/3 of those 30+ international capable aircraft in 2008 alone. 2008 will undoubtedly be a banner year for DL in the international arena.

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