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elvis777
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Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Mon Aug 06, 2007 3:04 pm

Howdy All,

there is an interview with Udvar-Hazy on Aviation week. It is actually pretty Interesting

here ore some excerpts

"On the wide-body side, there are some airlines that would like to see the production rate of the 787 reach 10 or more a month. But I’m not sure that’s achievable with Boeing’s partners and suppliers. They still can’t demonstrate a flawless execution of producing more than 10 airplanes a month. In fact, we will see whether they can even get to 10 on the schedule they have discussed."

"As far as Airbus is concerned, it’s easy to talk about it producing 10 or even 15 airplanes a month in 2015, since you can make promises far out that most people will forget. Frankly, it has to figure out how it is going to build airplanes, who will be in the supply chain, what percentage of the plane it will build in-house and what percentage will be subcontracted out. But first EADS, the parent company, has structural governance issues that need to be resolved."

And my favorite!!
"Airbus ........ Currently, it lacks the capability to build a single-barrel type structure. Boeing has cornered the proprietary capability on that technology, and I don’t see Airbus or EADS being able to make the investment to acquire it in the next 2-5 years."

“Yes, Steve, you are 100% right, but you are not the one who has to write the checks to develop this new airplane, and now we are in such a hole on the A380, over budget, and have a revenue gap because we are not delivering [A380s]. So how in hell can we spend $12-15 billion to do the perfect airplane?” It is easy for us experts to tell Airbus the requirements of a new airplane, but the question is how can it translate that input into a corporate investment when it has got all these uphill issues to deal with? That’s the dilemma.


"I think some of the customers that have signed up say, “Look, Airbus, you’ve got six years to get your act together. When you’ve built this airplane, if you come up 2%, 3%, 4% short—we hope you don’t, but if you do—you will have to write us a check every month for the shortfall.” The thing is, Airbus can’t refuse that type of a commitment, otherwise it can’t sell the airplane. Because now there’s a benchmark called the 787."


And loads more. Really interesting article

You can find the rest here

Straight Talk
Aviation Week & Space Technology
Aug.,8,07, pp 58


peace

Elvis777

[Edited 2007-08-06 08:05:11]
Leper,Unevolved, Misplaced and Unrepentant SportsFanatic and a ZOMBIE as well
 
AA7295
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Mon Aug 06, 2007 3:22 pm

Wow. Certainly some handy info there.

If Boeing introduces the 787-10, will they have to increase production?


Regards,
AA7295
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Mon Aug 06, 2007 3:36 pm

Quoting AA7295 (Reply 1):
If Boeing introduces the 787-10, will they have to increase production?

Boeing's ability to increase production and desire to increase it is in no way related to the 787-10. Currently they are limited in the production rate they promise by time. Its a waiting game to see how the currently production ramp up is going before they can promise any more increases in production in the future. With that increase in production, they currently have plenty of customers willing to drop cash for getting 788 or 789 ASAP. So If Boeing increases the production rate, It will still currently sell out even without a 787-10. Now Its true that they put off the 787-10 till 2013 for the simple reason that there is no point to having it sooner with the ability to fill any number of slots prior to that with other models, and a 100% sell out rate on the current production plan.
 
slz396
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Mon Aug 06, 2007 3:43 pm

I think UH is right on the things he knows most about: production issues.

Both manufacturers will introduce their new planes with modest and cautious production rates, and slowly increase them as they get confidence in the abilities of their supply chain. I am pretty convinced in there lays one of the reasons for Boeings reluctance to launch the 787-10, the other one being that it would be a greatly inferior plane without a serious re-do for which Boeing doesn't feel much appetite (cost-time-efford-and most importantly ending off the entire 777, whereas the 787-10 only replaces the 772).

On the technical note however, UH is all too easily loosing the big picture so it seems:
It has been discussed in detail several times in the past already -and the conclusion has always been- that barrel vs pannel approach could indeed hand operational decisive superiority to the barrel planes, but on the barrel vs shell approach their is no decisive winner really.

Whether one slices up the composite hull in longitudinal shells, or circumferencial barrels, the result is that composite pieces need to be joined together on a frame: the only differentiator remaining is the number of joints and that greatly depends on the size of the pieces one needs to join together and any way even on the plane with the largest number of joints (in relation to its size) the number of joints will have been reduced massively against the current production processes, making the percentage difference between the 2 methods so small that it is very well offsetable through other means, like more efficient wing, better engines etc etc...

Anybody else noticed Steve has made some unfortunate comments lately which clearly showed he misses technologicial knowledge to participate in a discussion on the production method of planes, most notoriously his public question to Airbus how they thought to fasten a composite fuselage on an aluminium frame: to which the answer simply was: just like Boeing will do on the 787!  embarrassed 

Maybe SQ should give him a detailed briefing?
 
azhobo
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Mon Aug 06, 2007 3:53 pm

Quoting Elvis777 (Thread starter):
“Yes, Steve, you are 100% right, but you are not the one who has to write the checks to develop this new airplane, and now we are in such a hole on the A380, over budget, and have a revenue gap because we are not delivering [A380s]. So how in hell can we spend $12-15 billion to do the perfect airplane?” It is easy for us experts to tell Airbus the requirements of a new airplane, but the question is how can it translate that input into a corporate investment when it has got all these uphill issues to deal with? That’s the dilemma.

Who is making this comment ("and now we are in such a hole on the A380, over budget, and have a revenue gap because we are not delivering" - in first person) ??? Sounds like someone from airbus, but seems more likely just the reporter from the magazine.
 
cobra27
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Mon Aug 06, 2007 3:54 pm

My favourite statement:

Quoting Elvis777 (Thread starter):
"As far as Airbus is concerned, it�s easy to talk about it producing 10 or even 15 airplanes a month in 2015, since you can make promises far out that most people will forget

Big Mouth talking
 
planemaker
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Mon Aug 06, 2007 4:14 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 3):
Whether one slices up the composite hull in longitudinal shells, or circumferencial barrels, the result is that composite pieces need to be joined together on a frame: the only differentiator remaining is the number of joints and that greatly depends on the size of the pieces one needs to join together and any way even on the plane with the largest number of joints (in relation to its size) the number of joints will have been reduced massively against the current production processes, making the percentage difference between the 2 methods so small that it is very well offsetable through other means, like more efficient wing, better engines etc etc...


You've brought up some good points and, as I've never really thought much about Airbus' approach, I now see that there are some advantages.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
Lumberton
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Mon Aug 06, 2007 9:45 pm

Quoting Elvis777 (Thread starter):
Boeing has cornered the proprietary capability on that technology, and I don’t see Airbus or EADS being able to make the investment to acquire it in the next 2-5 years."

Confirms what several of us have been posting for awhile. Thank you for posting this interview. Hopefully, AWST will post this article on the web soon.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
keesje
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Mon Aug 06, 2007 9:56 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 9):
Hopefully, AWST will post this article on the web soon.

Yes, so we get the full text.

For now he's cool, next time he gives his opinion on the 737 / 747-8 / 777 he is mr Big Mouth again  biggrin 

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Lumberton
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:01 pm

One of my favorite photos, Keesje! But didn't you leave someone out?  Wink
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
EI321
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:01 pm

Quoting AirTranTUS (Reply 5):
Quoting Chiad (Reply 4):
Free food and drinks for the Boeing cheerleaders.

And food for thought for the Airbus lovers.

Agreed. If only the quotes were less selective. I'd like to see the full article, not just a dissection.

Quoting Elvis777 (Thread starter):
"On the wide-body side, there are some airlines that would like to see the production rate of the 787 reach 10 or more a month. But I'm not sure that's achievable with Boeing's partners and suppliers.



Quoting Elvis777 (Thread starter):
"Airbus ........ Currently, it lacks the capability to build a single-barrel type structure. Boeing has cornered the proprietary capability on that technology, and I don't see Airbus or EADS being able to make the investment to acquire it in the next 2-5 years."

What does it say in the part of the quote that you have omitted? For those at the back of the room, Boeing is not building a single barrel structure either, they are building part of it. Its a double edged sword. Most of the composites in the 787 are being outsourced, which brings us directly back to the production issues that form part of the topic of this article.
 
Lumberton
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty S

Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:03 pm

Post deleted by author.

[Edited 2007-08-06 15:04:13]
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
keesje
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:07 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 10):
One of my favorite photos, Keesje! But didn't you leave someone out?

   Yes, I forgot techies have good visual memory. The guy with the funny glasses left the company so is "ex communivcated" btw I used this picture already some time ago without Forgear. I wonder what happened with him..



[Edited 2007-08-06 15:11:24]
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
NAV20
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:10 pm

Quoting Elvis777 (Thread starter):
"I think some of the customers that have signed up say, “Look, Airbus, you’ve got six years to get your act together. When you’ve built this airplane, if you come up 2%, 3%, 4% short—we hope you don’t, but if you do—you will have to write us a check every month for the shortfall.”

First of all, that part is all in quotes - it appears to be a direct quote from Udvar-Hazy. And he'd be in a good position to know what sort of offers Airbus is making, as he must have had negotiations with Airbus within the last month.

Secondly, on the face of it it's crazy in business terms - offering subsidies to your clients if you can't meet specification; effectively paying their extra fuel costs long-term. But Leahy is actually on record as having recommended back in January 2006 that Airbus do just that, in the hope of getting some orders for the A340:-

“Is it a good investment [for Airbus] to spend a couple of billion dollars to get a better aircraft when you can solve the fuel burn problem with money?” asks Leahy. The A340-600 and 777 have “comparable ranges and seat counts and Rolls-Royce guarantees that maintenance costs for four engines are the same as the twin,” says Leahy. “I can agree a figure with a customer that reflects the fuel burn delta and run that out over 12 years and pay it to them,” he adds."

http://iagblog.blogspot.com/2006/01/...us-to-offer-cash-back-on-a340.html

If they really are offering deals like that, IMO it moves the whole thing out of the field of mere business and into the realms of 'musical comedy' - or even 'farce.' Any such deals would be completely open-ended, Airbus/EADS would be just about certain to incur huge losses.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
Lumberton
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:27 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 15):
If they really are offering deals like that, IMO it moves the whole thing out of the field of mere business and into the realms of 'musical comedy' - or even 'farce.' Any such deals would be completely open-ended, Airbus/EADS would be just about certain to incur huge losses.



Quoting NAV20 (Reply 15):
it appears to be a direct quote from Udvar-Hazy. And he'd be in a good position to know what sort of offers Airbus is making, as he must have had negotiations with Airbus within the last month.


Astonishing if this is the case! SUH is offering a rare insight into the way Airbus is flogging this aircraft in order to gain traction in the market place. I would dearly love to see the whole interview.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:29 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 11):
One of my favorite photos, Keesje! But didn't you leave someone out?

Not only that, but they should take out the A-380F since it technically has no orders or isn't even being built.
One Nation Under God
 
ual747-600
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:31 pm

Some other interesting tidbits fromt the article:

1) He doesn't think the A350 Airbus is selling today is necessarily on their drawing boards. It will be refined by Boeings experience with 787.

2) The lack of a committed second engine manufacturer on A350 is putting Airbus at a serious competitive disadvantage.

3) He thinks the 737NNG will be small widebody incorporating 787 technology.

UAL747-600
 
Lumberton
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Mon Aug 06, 2007 10:33 pm

Quoting UAL747-600 (Reply 18):
2) The lack of a committed second engine manufacturer on A350 is putting Airbus at a serious competitive disadvantage.

Although EADS may wait awhile for an A350 order from ILFC (not to mention GECAS!), the EK order for 100 at the Dubai Airshow will certainly breathe life into this program. I know I'm in "broken record" mode by maintaining that EK will order the A350XWB, but the investment by Dubai Inc. almost assures this--Udvar-Hazy's criticisms notwithstanding.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
elvis777
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:44 pm

Howdy All,

Quoting Azhobo (Reply 6):
Who is making this comment ("and now we are in such a hole on the A380, over budget, and have a revenue gap because we are not delivering" - in first

It is UH in response to a question.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 10):
Yes, so we get the full text.

Keesje, the full text is up. You need a subscription for it. The full text is in the same vein. UAL747 added a bit more in his post. I cannot post the whole article! Suffice it to say it is all in the same vein. There was more stuff about eads than boeing.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 12):
What does it say in the part of the quote that you have omitted? For those at the back of the room, Boeing is not building a single barrel structure either, they are building part of it. Its a double edged sword. Most of the composites in the 787 are being outsourced, which brings us directly back to the production issues that form part of the topic of this article.

Sorry I ommitted that part. It was Late. UH was answering a question. Here is the full quote:

AW:Airbus has been trying to convince you that its concept of attaching composite panels to an aluminum substructure to build the A350 fuselage is the right approach. But you disagree because of concerns over weight, fuel economy and long-term maintenance. How strongly do you feel about Airbus needing to devise another strategy?

UH:"Airbus is aware of those issues and is trying to balance a number of factors. Currently, it lacks the capability to build a single-barrel type structure. Boeing has cornered the proprietary capability on that technology, and I don�t see Airbus or EADS being able to make the investment to acquire it in the next 2-5 years.
I recently talked to their chief engineer who is analyzing other options. One of them is a composite skeletal frame to which they would attach panels using some metal threads or metal fused into the composite skeleton. There�s no resolution yet."


Peace

Elvis777
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TKV
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:14 am

I found this article dated Aug. 3 on the Aviation week website, re: a SUH interview. It is not the article referred by Elvis ( I do not know if it refers to the same interview!) but covers some related issues and is certainly interesting
"Straight Talk: More From Udvar-Hazy On Commercial Aviation"
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/searc...w%3Dstory%26id%3Dnews%2FEXILFC.xml

where between other is written:

Udvar-Hazy is confident Boeing Co. can avoid the kinds of severe manufacturing problems, such as parts shortages, that forced a temporary shutdown of some assembly lines in 1997.
"When I talk to [Chairman and CEO James] McNerney and [Boeing Commercial Airplanes President Scott] Carson and their teams, it's clear they don't want to repeat previous mistakes" and push production rates "to the point where one major subcontractor or supplier could create a choke point"
--------------------
"Part [EADS's] problem is that since [former CEO Noel] Forgeard left, there have been a lot of behind-the-scenes changes. If you look throughout the Airbus organization -- in engineering, design, finance -- it's been like a huge revolving door. John Leahy is probably the only one that is still in the same spot, and he has more handcuffs on him".
--------------------
"[Airbus] will have to build an airplane that has more seats so they can offer a lower unit cost per seat, even though the trip cost might be higher on an A350-800 to fly from, say, Los Angeles to London. The only way [Airbus] can do that is with an airline with guaranteed maintenance costs, guaranteed fuel burn and guaranteed runway performance. If they don't, the airplane won't sell."
--------------------
"What Airbus wants GE to do -----------. What they want to do is take the GEnx engine and make some little changes, maybe increase fan diameter a little bit, maybe tweak the compressor section a little bit, do some other things. They do not want to invest in an all-new engine."
]

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 19):
I know I'm in "broken record" mode by maintaining that EK will order the A350XWB, but the investment by Dubai Inc. almost assures this--Udvar-Hazy's criticisms notwithstanding.

1) Dubai investment in EADS, about M$ 800 is small compared with the price of 100 A350 or B787. Assuming net M$ 100 each, it would be B$ 10 ! (the investment being only 8% of the aircrafts total price!)

Consequently, the investment is only one of the factors to be considered by EK, the other being between other net prices, delivery dates, technical data, operating costs at expected real conditions, guarantees and generally, reliability of the offered data and timing. And also if EK wishes to put all their eggs in a sole basket, if not so, a split, even if denied by Tim Clark (possibly only as a component of his negotiating strategy), shall not be discarded.

2) As the Dubai Fund itself has stated, their policy is guided by the criteria to invest in sharply undervalued companies which nevertheless are not in danger of failure. EADS, given its importance within the EU and its strategic relevance, and additionally being the only competitor of Boeing on the non-regional civil market, can and will not fail and therefore recuperate in due time, independently of which way EK's order goes, which is the rationale behind Dubai's attitude.

TKV
 
keesje
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:24 am

Quoting Elvis777 (Reply 18):
Keesje, the full text is up. You need a subscription for it. The full text is in the same vein.

Thnx anyway. Lets hope he stays a strong public 787 supporter in the next few months.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
flysherwood
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:27 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 15):
ot only that, but they should take out the A-380F since it technically has no orders or isn't even being built

Not TECHNICALLY.
 no 


The A380F has NO orders!!!  Wink
 
TKV
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:24 am

Quoting Elvis777 (Reply 18):
AW:Airbus has been trying to convince you that its concept of attaching composite panels to an aluminum substructure to build the A350 fuselage is the right approach. But you disagree because of concerns over weight, fuel economy and long-term maintenance. How strongly do you feel about Airbus needing to devise another strategy?

UH:"Airbus is aware of those issues and is trying to balance a number of factors. Currently, it lacks the capability to build a single-barrel type structure. Boeing has cornered the proprietary capability on that technology, and I don�½t see Airbus or EADS being able to make the investment to acquire it in the next 2-5 years.
I recently talked to their chief engineer who is analyzing other options. One of them is a composite skeletal frame to which they would attach panels using some metal threads or metal fused into the composite skeleton. There�½s no resolution yet."

I see that SUH has circumvented the response to the question "How strongly you feel", !!

If an option as described in the last paragraph or some other are still being considered, this implies that the present solution is still not considered final. If finally chosen, I assume that this would change between other the weight of the aircraft ?? If so, would this have substantive influence on the performance, overall design and engines ??

TKV
 
sunrisevalley
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty S

Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:29 am

quote=Slz396,reply=3]the other one being that it would be a greatly inferior plane without a serious re-do for which Boeing doesn't feel much appetite (cost-time-efford-and most importantly ending off the entire 777, whereas the 787-10 only replaces the 772).[/quote]


A "fair quote" from an article by Geoffrey Thomas in the August edition of Air Transport World......

"787 Program VP Mike Bair has promised airlines that as good as the first 787 is, it will "only get a whole lot better" as the industry further refines composite materials that make up approximately 50% of the Dreamliner by weight. For example, Bair tells ATW that the manufacturer has found ways to reengineer the 787 to save weight and the saving is so significant that it can launch the 50-passenger stretch 787-10 and meet airline demands of "777-200ER range" without increasing MTOW."

So does this mean a 135800lb payload at a range of 5800nm with a MTOW of 563000lb. If so this is a payload improvement of about 6600lb and a range improvement 400nm or thereabouts over previous numbers.
 
EI321
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:37 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 15):
Quoting Lumberton (Reply 11):
One of my favorite photos, Keesje! But didn't you leave someone out?

Not only that, but they should take out the A-380F since it technically has no orders or isn't even being built.

Its not even being offered by the looks of things.
 
SEPilot
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:48 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 3):
Whether one slices up the composite hull in longitudinal shells, or circumferencial barrels, the result is that composite pieces need to be joined together on a frame: the only differentiator remaining is the number of joints and that greatly depends on the size of the pieces one needs to join together and any way even on the plane with the largest number of joints (in relation to its size) the number of joints will have been reduced massively against the current production processes, making the percentage difference between the 2 methods so small that it is very well offsetable through other means, like more efficient wing, better engines etc etc...

The barrel approach does NOT require a separate frame; it does have circumferal hoop frames (composite, NOT aluminum) within the barrels, but there are no longitudinal frame members. Also, all joints are not equal; joints between barrels are subject to much less stress than longitudinal joints. Granted, both approaches are much better than current construction but from an engineering point of view the barrel approach is clearly superior to panels.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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glideslope
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 2:38 am

Quoting Elvis777 (Thread starter):
But first EADS, the parent company, has structural governance issues that need to be resolved."

I love how we all go round and round on sooo many different paths. Yet it always comes down to the same On-Ramp. IMO, Airbus needs to be free of EADS, or it's over. The EU needs to understand that in life, everyone does NOT always receive the same size slice of pie!!!!!!!

It's so simple, yet so cultural. Get over it, and quick.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
birdbrainz
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 2:53 am

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 23):
"787 Program VP Mike Bair has promised airlines that as good as the first 787 is, it will "only get a whole lot better" as the industry further refines composite materials that make up approximately 50% of the Dreamliner by weight. For example, Bair tells ATW that the manufacturer has found ways to reengineer the 787 to save weight and the saving is so significant that it can launch the 50-passenger stretch 787-10 and meet airline demands of "777-200ER range" without increasing MTOW."

Maybe that's why Boeing is waiting on the 787-10. They might figure that they're going to have to reengineer it anyhow. Why not do that once you've learned from the smaller 787?

More importantly, they have their hands full with the existing 787. As long as Airbus is umming and awwing over how to build the A350, Boeing has the luxury of time.
A good landing is one you can walk away from. A great landing is if the aircraft can be flown again.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 3:08 am

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 23):
A "fair quote" from an article by Geoffrey Thomas in the August edition of Air Transport World......

If Boeing has indeed reduced the MEW of the 787 by a significant amount (10t or more), then the 787-10 becomes a much more capable plane at 560,000lbs MTOW. It could make 8000nm at that rate.
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 3:34 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 3):
It has been discussed in detail several times in the past already -and the conclusion has always been- that barrel vs pannel approach could indeed hand operational decisive superiority to the barrel planes, but on the barrel vs shell approach their is no decisive winner really.

This is a contradiction. How could the barrel approach have "operational decisive superiority" but "their[sic] is no decisive winner really"?
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
Rheinbote
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 3:56 am

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 13):

[Leahy:] “Is it a good investment [for Airbus] to spend a couple of billion dollars to get a better aircraft when you can solve the fuel burn problem with money?” asks Leahy. The A340-600 and 777 have “comparable ranges and seat counts and Rolls-Royce guarantees that maintenance costs for four engines are the same as the twin,” says Leahy. “I can agree a figure with a customer that reflects the fuel burn delta and run that out over 12 years and pay it to them,” he adds."

http://iagblog.blogspot.com/2006/01/...us-to-offer-cash-back-on-a340.html

If they really are offering deals like that, IMO it moves the whole thing out of the field of mere business and into the realms of 'musical comedy' - or even 'farce.' Any such deals would be completely open-ended, Airbus/EADS would be just about certain to incur huge losses.

 checkmark  Not that U-H has any problem with that:
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/gener...p?channel=comm&id=news/EXILFC.xml#

"Part [EADS's] problem is that since [former CEO Noel] Forgeard left, there have been a lot of behind-the-scenes changes. If you look throughout the Airbus organization -- in engineering, design, finance -- it's been like a huge revolving door. John Leahy is probably the only one that is still in the same spot, and he has more handcuffs on him. If he wants to put a big deal together and do discounts, he has got to get approvals. Previously he and Forgeard had tremendous latitude."

If U-H was really interested in the long-term well-being of Airbus, he'd rather lobby for having his buddy John Leahy dismissed from the Airbus executive board to end the crazy sales frenzy once and for all.
 
9252fly
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:02 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):
If Boeing has indeed reduced the MEW of the 787 by a significant amount (10t or more), then the 787-10 becomes a much more capable plane at 560,000lbs MTOW. It could make 8000nm at that rate.

Interesting! If there is that much potential weight reduction,could it not be said that both the 788 and 789 will also benefit? Clearly,that implies the 788 and 789 range/payload could increase. Does that give Dixon at QF an aeroplane to fly SYD-LHR-SYD year-round profitably?
 
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:04 am

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 23):
"787 Program VP Mike Bair has promised airlines that as good as the first 787 is, it will "only get a whole lot better" as the industry further refines composite materials that make up approximately 50% of the Dreamliner by weight. For example, Bair tells ATW that the manufacturer has found ways to reengineer the 787 to save weight and the saving is so significant that it can launch the 50-passenger stretch 787-10 and meet airline demands of "777-200ER range" without increasing MTOW."

WHAT!!??  Wow! Already?? Damn. Then they could certainly build the 787-8 or 787-9LR versions that reach 9500nm + in range, and as I've said in other posts, build a 'PERFECT' 772ER replacement and potentially win a lot of orders in the 290-330 seat market. And since most airlines don't need 8,000nm range plus of the larger 350's, then the 787-10 could complete an awesome family, with the 77W holding its own for another 8 years.
We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:20 am

Airbus has "guaranteed" the performance of the A350, but they're still working on how to meet those guarantees. If, in the end, Airbus can't meet those guarantees, then you get into the situation of the 77W vs. the A346 - a good plane that, alas, costs you scores of millions more to operate over the life of the airframe then the competition. And even if Airbus offers to compensate you in one area, like fuel burn, that doesn't seem to be enough since A346 sales continue to trail 77W sales.

This is because Airbus is likely just cutting the sales price by a few tens of millions to make the initial capital costs lower. So if Airbus says "at $1.50 a gallon for Jet-A, an A346 will burn $30 million more in fuel then a 77W over twenty years, so we'll just knock off $30 million", the airline has to worry about what happens when Jet-A is $1.75 a gallon. Or $2. Or $2.50. Over 20 years, considering the volatility of fuel prices, a set figure based on today's prices just isn't going to cut it for many (if not most) airlines. Airbus could easily sell A346s for one-third of list, but then they'd lose their shirts. So they discount/compensate as deep as they can and hope for the best.

The same issue will affect Boeing, of course, when it comes to 777 vs. A350 RFPs. This is why Boeing will have to respond with a 787HGW or Y3.

Airbus knocking $15 million off the final price of an A350 if it "doesn't make the numbers" might not help an airline fighting a competitor with a 787 who is spending $3 million a year less to operate on the same route. After five years, the A350 operator has eaten their compensation and now needs to cut costs $3 million a year just to stay even. So the pressure is on Airbus (as it is on Boeing) to meet those guarantees. And this is why I believe Boeing continues to hem-and-haw on the 787-10 and Y3 instead of just guaranteeing some number and then hoping for the best...
 
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:21 am

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 30):
If U-H was really interested in the long-term well-being of Airbus, he'd rather lobby for having his buddy John Leahy dismissed from the Airbus executive board to end the crazy sales frenzy once and for all.

Well, that would be a conflict in interest for SUH, would it no?. Anyone who has bought or sold in the industrial equipment market knows that a manufacturer will give extra discounts to get the order booked by a particular time, such as quarter end, or the Paris Airshow.

For reasons known only to John Leahy, he loves to pack the show with bookings of all kinds, and I am sure he pays for it.

However, perhaps Tom Enders will put an end to it. He should.

Quoting Birdbrainz (Reply 27):

More importantly, they have their hands full with the existing 787. As long as Airbus is umming and awwing over how to build the A350, Boeing has the luxury of time.

Correct, absolutely spot on. More than that, they would be crazy to make any commitment until Airbus does.
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Lumberton
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:38 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 34):
More than that, they would be crazy to make any commitment until Airbus does.

Well put, despite the very public statements of Mr. Clark and Mr. Dixon!

From the article reference by Rheinbote in post #30:

Quote:
John Leahy is probably the only one that is still in the same spot, and he has more handcuffs on him. If he wants to put a big deal together and do discounts, he has got to get approvals. Previously he and Forgeard had tremendous latitude."

This is the first reference I've seen to Mr. Leahy having to defer to "higher authority" like a car salesman!
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:46 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 35):
This is the first reference I've seen to Mr. Leahy having to defer to "higher authority" like a car salesman!

and IMO is too little too late. Even if he had 0% to do with Airbus's current issues, Its apparent that so far every program that has happened on his watch has been a failure. Just the appearance of failure would be more than enough to get you canned at most companies of this size when you are holding the entire sales and marketing bag. The A320 and A330 continue to do well, but they were doing well before he showed up. The Trifecta of A340NG, A350XNB, and A380 failures are fairly easy to lay on his doorstep as he had plenty of control over all three programs and in fact one might assume near 100% control of the A330NG/A350XNB program since that never left the PowerPoint slides he was using.
 
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:48 am

Quoting Poitin (Reply 34):
More importantly, they have their hands full with the existing 787. As long as Airbus is umming and awwing over how to build the A350, Boeing has the luxury of time.

Correct, absolutely spot on. More than that, they would be crazy to make any commitment until Airbus does.

But they should tell (possibly "commit to" will be a too strong term) airlines that they will provide a competitive solution once Airbus commit !!! I would say this is was Tim Clark, if he is being realistic, is expecting !

Quoting Rheinbote (Reply 30):
Part [EADS's] problem is that since [former CEO Noel] Forgeard left, there have been a lot of behind-the-scenes changes. If you look throughout the Airbus organization -- in engineering, design, finance -- it's been like a huge revolving door. John Leahy is probably the only one that is still in the same spot, and he has more handcuffs on him. If he wants to put a big deal together and do discounts, he has got to get approvals. Previously he and Forgeard had tremendous latitude."

If U-H was really interested in the long-term well-being of Airbus, he'd rather lobby for having his buddy John Leahy dismissed from the Airbus executive board to end the crazy sales frenzy once and for all.

 checkmark  But I do not understand these remarks of SUH as a endorsement of the strategy of John Leahy, quite the contrary, I think that he agrees with what you say !!
 
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 5:03 am

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 36):
Even if he had 0% to do with Airbus's current issues, Its apparent that so far every program that has happened on his watch has been a failure.

But how much input did Leahy have on those programs? His job was to sell planes, not conceive, design, implement, and produce them. If he had to discount more heavily to compensate for the failings of the engineers, managers and machinists, then the engineers, managers and machinists should be the ones shown the door.

In my mind, Leahy has made a whole lot of lemonade out of a whole lot of lemons. It may not always be the sweetest of concoctions, but neither is it undrinkable.
 
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 5:16 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 38):
But how much input did Leahy have on those programs? His job was to sell planes, not conceive, design, implement, and produce them. If he had to discount more heavily to compensate for the failings of the engineers, managers and machinists, then the engineers, managers and machinists should be the ones shown the door.

 checkmark  couldn't agree more Stitch. As much of a loud mouth Leahy may be, and as much as I disagree with his rhetoric, he is doing what he is hired to do. Sell planes. You can't really fault him for the shortcomings of the 340NG, delays of the 380, and indecision of the 350-albeit unless he convinced Airbus engineers that there was no need to persue a 330 replacement-787 competitor. Then again one would assume that Airbus engineers had access to all of the information in regards to the 787 that Mr. Leahy did, and whether they failed to act or were convinced by all of Leahy's negative-spun comments about the 787 program to not do anything but an A330Lite we'll never know
We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
 
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 5:17 am

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 36):
Quoting Lumberton (Reply 35):
This is the first reference I've seen to Mr. Leahy having to defer to "higher authority" like a car salesman!

Quoting Stitch (Reply 38):
But how much input did Leahy have on those programs? His job was to sell planes, not conceive, design, implement, and produce them. If he had to discount more heavily to compensate for the failings of the engineers, managers and machinists, then the engineers, managers and machinists should be the ones shown the door.

In my mind, Leahy has made a whole lot of lemonade out of a whole lot of lemons. It may not always be the sweetest of concoctions, but neither is it undrinkable



Quoting EA772LR (Reply 39):
couldn't agree more Stitch. As much of a loud mouth Leahy may be, and as much as I disagree with his rhetoric, he is doing what he is hired to do. Sell planes. You can't really fault him for the shortcomings of the 340NG, delays of the 380, and indecision of the 350-albeit unless he convinced Airbus engineers that there was no need to persue a 330 replacement-787 competitor. Then again one would assume that Airbus engineers had access to all of the information in regards to the 787 that Mr. Leahy did, and whether they failed to act or were convinced by all of Leahy's negative-spun comments about the 787 program to not do anything but an A330Lite we'll never know

and IMO is too little too late

I am not sure that anyone would have been able to make the A380, A340 and the original A350 big success, once the B787, B748 and the exploding oil prices appeared !! I do not think that he (or at least he alone) was
responsible by not foreseeing these developments !

But once on the table, if instead mocking and talking down above facts, he would conveyed to the EADS/Airbus leadership the consequences on the marketing, the damage could have been at least strongly reduced, between other, the A350XWB project begun much earlier.

But he had his greatest success convincing for a long time the leadership that all was OK, this being his cardinal sin !!

And also, as Boom Boom says:

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 41):
Perhaps he makes promises the engineers, managers and machinists can't keep.

Look at how often "Old Big Mouth" has had to eat his words in the past.

TKV

[Edited 2007-08-06 22:22:06]

[Edited 2007-08-06 22:26:51]

[Edited 2007-08-06 22:30:00]

[Edited 2007-08-06 22:32:32]
 
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty S

Tue Aug 07, 2007 5:18 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 38):
But how much input did Leahy have on those programs? His job was to sell planes, not conceive, design, implement, and produce them.His job was to sell planes, not conceive, design, implement, and produce them. If he had to discount more heavily to compensate for the failings of the engineers, managers and machinists, then the engineers, managers and machinists should be the ones shown the door.

Perhaps he makes promises the engineers, managers and machinists can't keep.

Look at how often "Old Big Mouth" has had to eat his words in the past.
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 5:31 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 33):
Airbus has "guaranteed" the performance of the A350, but they're still working on how to meet those guarantees. If, in the end, Airbus can't meet those guarantees, then you get into the situation of the 77W vs. the A346

I think that any guarantees Airbus has given are not relative to what the B787 does, but hard figures. And more, I'd be surprised if they weren't guarantees Airbus is confident it can deliver on using the current plans for the plane.
 
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 5:40 am

Quoting TKV (Reply 37):
But they should tell (possibly "commit to" will be a too strong term) airlines that they will provide a competitive solution once Airbus commit !!! I would say this is was Tim Clark, if he is being realistic, is expecting !

They're telling every airline about the upcoming 787-10, and it even appears in a PPT presentation that Boeing gave about a year ago in Cape Town. The plane was labeled "787-10" in the chart. (No, I don't have the file handy.)
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 6:06 am

Quoting Joni (Reply 42):
I think that any guarantees Airbus has given are not relative to what the B787 does, but hard figures. And more, I'd be surprised if they weren't guarantees Airbus is confident it can deliver on using the current plans for the plane.

If we try to visualize the situation today if Airbus had not been able to book the large amount of orders in
Paris, we would realize that failure to do so was not an option.

And to succeed, they had to issue performance guarantees satisfactory for customers.

I agree that the Airbus engineers would not have done so if not reasonably confident that they will be able to meet them. But as the amount involved, to be acceptable to customers have to be very, very large,the big question arise: is "reasonably confident" enough ??

IMO, they incurred in a huge risk.
Was this risk justified given the "failure not an option" situation: IMHO: I do not know !!

Quoting Birdbrainz (Reply 43):
Quoting TKV (Reply 37):
But they should tell (possibly "commit to" will be a too strong term) airlines that they will provide a competitive solution once Airbus commit !!! I would say this is was Tim Clark, if he is being realistic, is expecting !

They're telling every airline about the upcoming 787-10, and it even appears in a PPT presentation that Boeing gave about a year ago in Cape Town. The plane was labeled "787-10" in the chart. (No, I don't have the file handy.)

Yes !! But this B787-10 had not the specs as Clark and Dixon expect and therefore I called it a "competitive solution" (referred to the A3510 !) But "competitive" does not mean "similar"

TKV
 
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 6:17 am

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 39):
As much of a loud mouth Leahy may be, and as much as I disagree with his rhetoric, he is doing what he is hired to do. Sell planes. You can't really fault him for the shortcomings of the 340NG, delays of the 380, and indecision of the 350-albeit unless he convinced Airbus engineers that there was no need to persue a 330 replacement-787 competitor

There is no overall answer.
John Leahy had significant influence on particular models, on others he didn't have much influence.

[Edited 2007-08-06 23:23:26]
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 6:41 am

Quoting TKV (Reply 40):
But once on the table, if instead mocking and talking down above facts, he would conveyed to the EADS/Airbus leadership the consequences on the marketing, the damage could have been at least strongly reduced, between other, the A350XWB project begun much earlier.

I imagine Leahy was reporting back to Airbus management what his customers were telling him. I see most of his "jawing" as just sound-biting in the media. I have more faith in the management at the airlines.

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 41):
Perhaps he makes promises the engineers, managers and machinists can't keep.

That may very well have been the case. If in the past it was mostly Gallois running the show, Gallois might very well have told Leahy to promise whatever the customer wanted and then worry about actually delivering it later.
 
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 6:46 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 46):
I imagine Leahy was reporting back to Airbus management what his customers were telling him.

This is the reason why the A350 has become the A350XWB. The famous "clash" on the A350 between Leahy and Udvar-Hazy at a conference was, as many people in Toulouse believe, orchestrated beforehand.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 46):
If in the past it was mostly Gallois running the show, Gallois might very well have told Leahy to promise whatever the customer wanted and then worry about actually delivering it later.

This is utter nonsense. Leahy has much less freedom of action today than he had in the past.
The fundamental things apply as time goes by
 
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Stitch
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty Stuff

Tue Aug 07, 2007 6:49 am

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 47):
This is utter nonsense. Leahy has much less freedom of action today than he had in the past.

Note that my comment related to the past, and not the present.  Smile
 
Lumberton
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RE: Udvar-Hazy Interview 787-350 And Other Nifty S

Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:04 am

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 47):
This is utter nonsense. Leahy has much less freedom of action today than he had in the past.

Not according to SUH! From the Aviation Week article quoted earlier:

Quote:
Part [EADS's] problem is that since [former CEO Noel] Forgeard left, there have been a lot of behind-the-scenes changes. If you look throughout the Airbus organization -- in engineering, design, finance -- it's been like a huge revolving door. John Leahy is probably the only one that is still in the same spot, and he has more handcuffs on him. If he wants to put a big deal together and do discounts, he has got to get approvals. Previously he and Forgeard had tremendous latitude."

Edit. I finally realized that you were agreeing with SUH!

[Edited 2007-08-07 00:21:20]
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
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