NYC777
Topic Author
Posts: 5076
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 3:00 am

Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:16 pm

IAD787 got an interview with Richard Aboulafia. There are some really interesting points here about the 787-10 and A350-1000. He covers other topics like the 737 replacement, challenges for the 787 program and aviation headlines in 2017.

Full Interview Here:
http://flightblogger.blogspot.com/20...stions-with-richard-aboulafia.html

Fair Use Excerpt:
----------

Q: How should Boeing respond to the A350-1000? Stretch the 787-10 to 350 seats or upgrade the 777-300ER?

A: There's a lot we don't know about the A350. Any further design changes could greatly affect its competitiveness, probably for the better. That metal skeleton might either go away, or be replaced by a composite skeleton. But even with the current A350 design, the -1000 looks like a very respectable player, and Boeing should take it seriously as a competitive threat.

I think Qantas, and perhaps others, are expecting too much from a 787-10. One thing that makes the 787 a great design is that it is optimized for its current range/payload. The price for this optimization is limited growth potential. While a 300-seat 787-10 looks very promising, I think Boeing will introduce an all-new or major derivative 350-400 seat aircraft to replace the 777-300ER, probably around 2017. Given Boeing's likely revenue and profit over the next ten years, there are no financial restraints on Boeing's competitive response.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2002
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:21 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
I think Qantas, and perhaps others, are expecting too much from a 787-10. One thing that makes the 787 a great design is that it is optimized for its current range/payload. The price for this optimization is limited growth potential. While a 300-seat 787-10 looks very promising, I think Boeing will introduce an all-new or major derivative 350-400 seat aircraft to replace the 777-300ER, probably around 2017. Given Boeing's likely revenue and profit over the next ten years, there are no financial restraints on Boeing's competitive response.

I agree. I think Y3 is far more likely then anyone gives Boeing credit for. I think they are just waiting until after Airbus has solidified the design of the A350 and can't change it easily.

I rather suspect that the usual Airbus boo birds won't be complaining about Richard Aboulafia in this thread.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13772
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:35 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
I think Qantas, and perhaps others, are expecting too much from a 787-10. One thing that makes the 787 a great design is that it is optimized for its current range/payload. The price for this optimization is limited growth potential. While a 300-seat 787-10 looks very promising, I think Boeing will introduce an all-new or major derivative 350-400 seat aircraft to replace the 777-300ER, probably around 2017. Given Boeing's likely revenue and profit over the next ten years, there are no financial restraints on Boeing's competitive response.

Yep. Exactly spot on (except maybe 2018 or 2019 for Y3). The A350 will be a good plane, and has to be. But Boeing can respond within a few years, just as they did with the 77W to the A346. Ultimately, that turned out fine despite being 2 years "late" in responding.

But Dixon, as I said in that thread, is expecting too much from the 787, and claiming it's what was promised. It's all hogwash, that. But it's a testament to the game changing nature of the 787 that everyone seems to want it to be all things to all people...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23199
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:39 pm

Dixon wants a super 787-10 because it would allow him to leverage his investment in the 787-8 and 787-9.

Y3 - and the A350-1000 - brings with it the same issues the 777 did for QF - a new type different from their current fleet.
 
EA772LR
Posts: 1285
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2007 2:18 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:43 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
Given Boeing's likely revenue and profit over the next ten years, there are no financial restraints on Boeing's competitive response.

Bingo  dollarsign   dollarsign  Boeing has their hands full with the 783, 788, 789 now plus a 737 replacement on the horizon. I think Boeing will develop a ten for a sweet 772ER replacement while not spending too much bringing the 787-10 to market. So Boeing may give up a few orders to the 350-1000, wooptydoo, (they can't win all of the orders) but there are a lot of 773ER's yet to be delivered, and those will not need to be replaced when the 350-1000 enters service. If Boeing does build Y3 (a 773ER-747 replacement) and it enters in the late 2010's, then Airbus will indeed be in trouble. No doubt the 350's will be badass jets however. This should become very interesting indeed.
We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
 
baroque
Posts: 12302
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 2:15 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:47 pm

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 1):
I rather suspect that the usual Airbus boo birds won't be complaining about Richard Aboulafia in this thread.

As Ikra remarks, the comments are not that far from some recent discussions of the A350 where the effects of the size of its wing are discussed in relation to the limits that appears to be posed for the 787. And once the 787 gets a bigger wing, it might be a good idea to have a wider fuse and....maybe by then it IS a Y3.
 
Lumberton
Posts: 4176
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 7:34 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:52 pm

Quoting EA772LR (Reply 4):
Boeing has their hands full with the 783, 788, 789 now plus a 737 replacement on the horizon

Last I looked, the A350--all versions--were still "on the horizon", and likely to remain that way for the next 5-6 years. As noted in the Steven Udvar-Hazy thread (by Elvis777) it can afford to be "all things to all people" for now.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
Poitin
Posts: 2651
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2006 6:32 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:54 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
I think Qantas, and perhaps others, are expecting too much from a 787-10. One thing that makes the 787 a great design is that it is optimized for its current range/payload. The price for this optimization is limited growth potential.

I think he has it right. You can get only so much optimization out of a design. Witness the A330, which was excellent, and the A320 which did well, and the A340 which was a not-so-good.

The big question is just where the future of airline travel is headed. Are we going to continue to see large numbers of passengers go between a limited number of city pairs, such as New York and London, or will we see more and more point to point pairs as longer range smaller aircraft such as the 787 come on line? Many believe that is the case, and if the number of 747s now in service as compared to 20 years ago is any indication, we may well see even aircraft the size of 777s become "too large."

The nice thing for Boeing is they can afford to wait and react when they know where the market is actually going. That should be in the 2012 time frame, making a 2017 Y3 doable.
Now so, have ye time fer a pint?
 
EI321
Posts: 4788
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:55 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 3):
Y3 - and the A350-1000 - brings with it the same issues the 777 did for QF - a new type different from their current fleet.

But they dont have a choice by the sound of things, they will buy one of them.
 
grantcv
Posts: 410
Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2005 1:28 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Mon Aug 06, 2007 11:59 pm

Quoting AirFrnt (Reply 1):
I think Y3 is far more likely then anyone gives Boeing credit for. I think they are just waiting until after Airbus has solidified the design of the A350 and can't change it easily.

Boeing will produce the Y3 when the technologies and market warrant it - not just because Airbus has produced the A350. The A350 will be allowed to dominate that part of the market for as long as the market is dormant, as it will become in a few years once the current cycle has passed. Waiting to catch the right wave, and in so doing, letting the A350 get out ahead for a while will be what makes Boeing successful.
 
airfrnt
Posts: 2002
Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2004 2:05 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:14 am

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 9):
Boeing will produce the Y3 when the technologies and market warrant it - not just because Airbus has produced the A350.

The A350 being successful will warren Boeing breaking into the market. Also if the A380 gets any traction, it allows Boeing to take a hammer to it.

Remember also that this will be Boeings second composite plane, while the A350 is Airbus's first. Second, we know from decisions like the panel decisions that the 787 may have better technology on first flight then the 350 would. That gives Boeing a commanding lead when it comes to the second new plane. 1000 orders ain't bad for a plane model esp given that it's competitor had a five year lead and less orders.
 
DAYflyer
Posts: 3546
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:35 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:30 am

The 787 will not be, nor should ever be viewed as the end all design for Boeing. The 777 will require replacement by the Y3 before 2020, and Boeing will have had sufficient time and resources to implement 787 technology into this vital program. It will essentially be a 777 sized 787 with a 6 wheel bogey, 400-450 pax and 9000 nm range with 30% gains in operational cost reductions over the present 777.

I do not know if it will be a A-350 killer, but it will certainly be a competitor.
One Nation Under God
 
NYC777
Topic Author
Posts: 5076
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 3:00 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:39 am

I wonder if Boeing can size hte Y3 into the 500+ seat categories. We hear a lot of talk of the Y3 being the 350-400 seat airplane but what about beyond that?
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
DAYflyer
Posts: 3546
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:35 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:41 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 12):
I wonder if Boeing can size hte Y3 into the 500+ seat categories. We hear a lot of talk of the Y3 being the 350-400 seat airplane but what about beyond that?

I think it will all depend on what the airlines ask for.
One Nation Under God
 
Glom
Posts: 2051
Joined: Sat Apr 23, 2005 2:38 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:48 am

Quoting Grantcv (Reply 9):
Boeing will produce the Y3 when the technologies and market warrant it - not just because Airbus has produced the A350.

This is a sound strategy. The excruciating story of the A350 has been entirely due to Airbus developing it as a reactionary response to the 787 rather than developing it because they saw a market and had the technology to fill it.
 
EA772LR
Posts: 1285
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2007 2:18 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:51 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 6):
Last I looked, the A350--all versions--were still "on the horizon", and likely to remain that way for the next 5-6 years. As noted in the Steven Udvar-Hazy thread (by Elvis777) it can afford to be "all things to all people" for now.

Yes but I would generally think that the design of the 350 is much further along than the 737RS. We have no idea what the hell the 737RS will look like, or any specs....then again we really don't know that much about the 350 either. Airbus have done several about-faces with the 350 program, they could pull another one with the 350 again (composite barrels, etc.)
We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23199
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:12 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 8):
But they dont have a choice by the sound of things, they will buy one of them.

QF always has a choice. They may buy one or the other or they may just stick with the 787-9 on the low-end and the A388 on the upper end. After all, operating just the 767/A330 and the 747 didn't seem to have hurt them. The only thing the A350-1000 brings to the table the 777-300ER didn't is better efficiency, but then the 777-300ER brought that compared to the 747-400 and yet QF continued to buy 747-400s.

Quoting Poitin (Reply 7):
The big question is just where the future of airline travel is headed.

Good point. The 777 opened up the Pacific much as the 767 opened up the Atlantic. Being larger then the 767 - and somewhat close to the 777 - one wonders if the market for a 350+ seat twin will continue to grow or will new city-pairs open that a 200-300 seat plane will work?

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 12):
I wonder if Boeing can size hte Y3 into the 500+ seat categories. We hear a lot of talk of the Y3 being the 350-400 seat airplane but what about beyond that?

I am sure Boeing can, but I am not sure they need to.

A Y3-100 at 350 seats and a Y3-200 at 400 seats would probably be plenty. The 787-10 would become the new 777-200A / A330-300 replacement as well as handle many 777-200ER / A340-300 missions, leaving the Y3-100 to replace the 772LR/A345 and Y3-200 the 77W/A346.
 
A342
Posts: 4017
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 11:05 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:25 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 11):
400-450 pax



Quoting NYC777 (Reply 12):
I wonder if Boeing can size hte Y3 into the 500+ seat categories.

But that would cannibalize the 748i...
Exceptions confirm the rule.
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 4970
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:34 am

Quoting A342 (Reply 17):
But that would cannibalize the 748i...

Boeing should worry about cannibalizing the 748i every bit as much as Douglas should have worried about cannibalizing the DC-7 with the DC-8 in the fifties. When new technology comes along (especially if you are the one who started it) worrying about preserving your obsolete products is the height of backwards thinking.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
EI321
Posts: 4788
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:41 am

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 12):
I wonder if Boeing can size hte Y3 into the 500+ seat categories.

But that would just be another version of the A380.
 
sunrisevalley
Posts: 5006
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 3:26 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:43 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 16):
as well as handle many 777-200ER / A340-300 missions,

Geoffrey Thomas's article in the August issue of ATW would suggest that the 787-10 will be able to handle ALL 777-200ER missions.
link
http://www.atwonline.com/magazine/article.html?articleID=2025
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23199
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:46 am

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 20):
Geoffrey Thomas's article in the August issue of ATW would suggest that the 787-10 will be able to handle ALL 777-200ER missions.

It may very well be able to. Boeing likely wants to see how LN001-006 perform in flight-test to see how well the planes are hitting their projected targets. The "Achilles Heel" of the 787-10 is MTOW. She has plenty of space to install fuel tanks, however the weight of that fuel would eat into payload.
 
A342
Posts: 4017
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 11:05 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:59 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 18):
Boeing should worry about cannibalizing the 748i every bit as much as Douglas should have worried about cannibalizing the DC-7 with the DC-8 in the fifties. When new technology comes along (especially if you are the one who started it) worrying about preserving your obsolete products is the height of backwards thinking.

That's an apples-to-oranges comparison. The technology differences between the DC-7 and DC-8, especially considering the engines, were fundamental.

But nevertheless, applying your logic, Boeing would already think about replacing an aircraft which hasn't even been built, leave alone flown. IMO, that would show how obsolete the 748i already is.

Please note: This does not reflect my personal opinion!
Exceptions confirm the rule.
 
sunrisevalley
Posts: 5006
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2004 3:26 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 2:09 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 21):
The "Achilles Heel" of the 787-10 is MTOW.

No doubt you read the linked article.How go you interpret Bair's statement "meet airline demands of "777-200ER range" without increasing MTOW." My interpretation is, and I may be wrong, 777-200ER payload and range within the present limitations of landing gear etc., that is a MTOW of about 564000lb.
 
JayinKitsap
Posts: 627
Joined: Sat Nov 26, 2005 9:55 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 2:12 am

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 20):
Geoffrey Thomas's article in the August issue of ATW would suggest that the 787-10 will be able to handle ALL 777-200ER missions.
link
http://www.atwonline.com/magazine/article.html?articleID=2025

It seems possible that these could go into both the 783 and 789 models. If sufficient weight could be saved in the 783 to add even 500 nm to its range payload curve would make it much more marketable. Further, saving weight would reduce the landing fees for both JAL and ANA.
 
aerohottie
Posts: 706
Joined: Mon Mar 29, 2004 3:52 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 2:18 am

I personally believe Airbus would respond to a 773ER Y3 replacement with its own aircraft placed between the A350 and A380 with a possible 10-11 abreast single level Y configuration. This would allow Airbus to compete with Boeing in all classes. The question this strategy would raise is "what about the 737/320 replacement"?
In Airbuses case, I think they would do a deal with Embraer to do the A320 aircraft as a partnership, allowing Airbus to do both a Y3 competitor and A320 replacement at the same time after completing the A350.
What?
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23199
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 2:44 am

Quoting SunriseValley (Reply 23):
How do you interpret Bair's statement "meet airline demands of "777-200ER range" without increasing MTOW." My interpretation is, and I may be wrong, 777-200ER payload and range within the present limitations of landing gear etc., that is a MTOW of about 564000lb.

Widebodyphotog calculated that with a 540,000lb MTOW and current 787 engines, a 787-10 would fly 7600nm with a typical passenger payload. However, these figures were based on Boeing's old projections of an 8800nm range for the 787-9. That range has since shrunk about 300nm so one can imagine that the 787-10 is now closer to 7000nm, which is what Blair has said earlier this year and around 700nm less then the 777-200ER and with a lower total payload by upwards of 5t.

To get 8500nm out of a 787-10, Widebodyphotog calculated an MTOW of 600,000lbs with engines of 88,000lbs of thrust. It would still carry 15t less "useful load" then a 772ER, but max payload would only be about a ton less and it would burn about 1.5t less fuel per hour.

Now, if Boeing has been able to reduce the MEW of the 787 family 10t or more, then that is incredible and the long-term prospects of the A350-800 just got a great deal more dim.

Quoting Aerohottie (Reply 25):
I personally believe Airbus would respond to a 773ER Y3 replacement with its own aircraft placed between the A350 and A380 with a possible 10-11 abreast single level Y configuration.

I honestly do not think Airbus will be in a position to respond with a new plane. They'll stretch the A350 to 80m and hope for the best.
 
aerohottie
Posts: 706
Joined: Mon Mar 29, 2004 3:52 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 2:58 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
I honestly do not think Airbus will be in a position to respond with a new plane. They'll stretch the A350 to 80m and hope for the best.

Although I do agree with you.. I do think Airbus will do as you say initially, I do also believe they will respond with an aircraft between the A350 and A380 "IF" boeings Y3 773ER replacement recieves alot of orders.
What?
 
User avatar
SEPilot
Posts: 4970
Joined: Sat Dec 30, 2006 10:21 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 3:24 am

Quoting A342 (Reply 22):
But nevertheless, applying your logic, Boeing would already think about replacing an aircraft which hasn't even been built, leave alone flown. IMO, that would show how obsolete the 748i already is.

The 748 was a relatively low-cost answer to the A380; it will sell enough as freighters to make it worthwhile. The 748i is never going to be a big seller; it will sell enough (IMHO) to be worthwhile, but the real money will be from the 748F. Y3 is far enough in the future that consideration for the 748 is misplaced.

Quoting A342 (Reply 22):
That's an apples-to-oranges comparison. The technology differences between the DC-7 and DC-8, especially considering the engines, were fundamental.

Granted, the change to jets was much bigger, but CFRP construction is the biggest new thing since then.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
hawkercamm
Posts: 108
Joined: Sun Jul 29, 2007 4:15 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 3:31 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
Widebodyphotog calculated that with a 540,000lb MTOW and current 787 engines, a 787-10 would fly 7600nm with a typical passenger payload. However, these figures were based on Boeing's old projections of an 8800nm range for the 787-9. That range has since shrunk about 300nm so one can imagine that the 787-10 is now closer to 7000nm, which is what Blair has said earlier this year and around 700nm less then the 777-200ER and with a lower total payload by upwards of 5t.

To get 8500nm out of a 787-10, Widebodyphotog calculated an MTOW of 600,000lbs with engines of 88,000lbs of thrust. It would still carry 15t less "useful load" then a 772ER, but max payload would only be about a ton less and it would burn about 1.5t less fuel per hour.

Now, if Boeing has been able to reduce the MEW of the 787 family 10t or more, then that is incredible and the long-term prospects of the A350-800 just got a great deal more dim.

I have calculated almost equal payload ranges too. The question would be is this good enough. I can not answer that. But for shorter missions the 540000lb MTOW aircraft would be better than the 600000lbs MTOW aircraft. That's provided it can haul the payload (number of seats) over the 'required' distance.

The lack of launch for the -10 could be that Boeing can not commit between the short range and longer range aircraft and with the A350-900/1000 somewhat a moving target they are going to take the wait and see route. Boeing also need to see how the 787baseline airplane stacks up with regards to SFC /Drag and OWE targets. Obviously all would have margins of several percent. If the actual aircraft come out on the good side of these margins this would influence the MTOW decision for the -10. Furthermore with time RR or GE may be able to further improve their engines.
 
Rheinbote
Posts: 1103
Joined: Sun May 21, 2006 9:30 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 3:36 am

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):

[Aboulafia:] A: There's a lot we don't know about the A350. Any further design changes could greatly affect its competitiveness, probably for the better.

Read: The design needs to be changed, it actually has to get better to become competitive.

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 11):
The 777 will require replacement by the Y3 before 2020, and Boeing will have had sufficient time and resources to implement 787 technology into this vital program. It will essentially be a 777 sized 787 with a 6 wheel bogey, 400-450 pax and 9000 nm range with 30% gains in operational cost reductions over the present 777.

I do not know if it will be a A-350 killer, but it will certainly be a competitor.

 checkmark  well said, fully subsrcibe to that.

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 18):
When new technology comes along (especially if you are the one who started it) worrying about preserving your obsolete products is the height of backwards thinking.

 checkmark  With the 747-8F likely to be profitable on its own, the 747-8i may be regarded as a business of opportunity. In case the A380 would fail to demonstrate superior economies (of scale) or the A380 program ultimately got its plug pulled, the 747-8i provides a nice fall-back option.
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:05 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 28):
The 748 was a relatively low-cost answer to the A380; it will sell enough as freighters to make it worthwhile. The 748i is never going to be a big seller; it will sell enough (IMHO) to be worthwhile, but the real money will be from the 748F. Y3 is far enough in the future that consideration for the 748 is misplaced.

..not to mention, the B748F has happily killed off the A380F (for now at least) and the B748I is nicely applying pressure to the A380..its definitely going to erode profit margins for the A380....a headache which Airbus doesn't need right now and wasn't expecting even a recently as 2004.....

Apropos..I thought Aboulafia was "Airbus Basher#1" and Boeing KoolAid drinker as well as one of "The Great Satans" of A.net (quoting former A.net member Leelaw)....

Maybe this recent piece might shut some of the  blockhead  gobbers here....names who I won't mention....  expressionless 
"Up the Irons!"
 
MIT787
Posts: 30
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 9:22 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:22 am

Quoting Aerohottie (Reply 27):
Although I do agree with you.. I do think Airbus will do as you say initially, I do also believe they will respond with an aircraft between the A350 and A380 "IF" boeings Y3 773ER replacement recieves alot of orders.

So, you are thinking about a 747 sized plane. You think Airbus wants to cut into that huge demand for the 744 & 748? You really must see where the market is heading. There are a lot of airlines that want capacity, but a lot more airlines want range. So, I think Airbus needs to consider a 250- 300 seat aircraft because this is the bulk of the midsize WB market.
 
EA772LR
Posts: 1285
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2007 2:18 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:24 am

Quoting Aerohottie (Reply 25):
I personally believe Airbus would respond to a 773ER Y3 replacement with its own aircraft placed between the A350 and A380 with a possible 10-11 abreast single level Y configuration. This would allow Airbus to compete with Boeing in all classes.

Not necessarily, because Airbus has NO answer to the 788, which has over 500 orders by itself. They handed that market to Boeing by going for the 333-777 market.
We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23199
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:31 am

Quoting Aerohottie (Reply 27):
I do think Airbus will do as you say initially, I do also believe they will respond with an aircraft between the A350 and A380 "IF" boeings Y3 773ER replacement recieves alot of orders.

Airbus is already undercutting the prospects of the A380 by launching the A350-1000. An 80m A350-1100 will twist that knife even more. To then launch a 400-450 seat "A360" would likely slit the A380's throat and stake it through the heart.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13772
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:42 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 34):
To then launch a 400-450 seat "A360" would likely slit the A380's throat and stake it through the heart.

Of course if Airbus had done the A380-800 and A380-900 right from the beginning - 450 seat and 575 seat instead of 550 seat and 675 seat - there wouldn't be a gap. The A380 wouldn't need such a huge wingspan, or have as much wake, etc. and the 748i would have absolutely zero market.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
sstsomeday
Posts: 821
Joined: Thu Oct 26, 2006 2:32 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:49 am

Looking as far ahead as we are, I wonder what China, India or Japan might be up to by that time, considering the joint A/C manufacturing ventures and unavoidable technology sharing being entered into at this time. There may be an independant third player in 15 years, with cheaper labor than in Europe or North America.

Post WW2, Japan was making cheap imitations/knock offs of Western manufactured goods, initially very simple ones. Cut to 1975 and "Made in Japan" was no longer a put-down but a considerable threat. Now more foreign (largely Japanese) cars are being purchased in the U.S. than American ones. And Japan leads in technology, an industry we essentially taught them.

To assume that the large A/C industry will remain essentially a duopoly is whistling in the dark, I'm afraid. Doesn't Japan manufacture the 787s entire wing? (Am I remembering that correctly? or is that England?)
I come in peace
 
EA772LR
Posts: 1285
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2007 2:18 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:49 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 35):
Of course if Airbus had done the A380-800 and A380-900 right from the beginning - 450 seat and 575 seat instead of 550 seat and 675 seat - there wouldn't be a gap.

How would they do this? Could they have done something similar to Boeing and had an extended upper-deck, but not a complete upper-deck as on the existing 380? Tho some would call it a '747 wannabe', maybe it could have saved Airbus a couple billion in development costs, and attracted more customers. However, if the A380 were much smaller than this proposed version (475-550 seats) the 350-1000 would sure eat into sales no?
We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
 
brendows
Posts: 801
Joined: Thu Apr 27, 2006 4:55 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:54 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 26):
However, these figures were based on Boeing's old projections of an 8800nm range for the 787-9. That range has since shrunk about 300nm

The 300nm reduction in range was because of a higher payload (9 vs 8 seats abreast) wasn't it?
 
aerohottie
Posts: 706
Joined: Mon Mar 29, 2004 3:52 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:55 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 34):
Airbus is already undercutting the prospects of the A380 by launching the A350-1000. An 80m A350-1100 will twist that knife even more. To then launch a 400-450 seat "A360" would likely slit the A380's throat and stake it through the heart.


I don't think Airbus will develop an A350-1100. I think the A350-1000 is the largest variant. A potential A360 could come in 2 variants one of 400 capacity, and one with 475 capacity. I also think the A389 will be launched eventually.

This will give Airbus a fleet of:

A350-800 (250 pax)
A350-900 (300 pax) (A350-900R for the ultra-long-haul market)
A350-1000 (350 pax)

A360-800 (400 pax)
A360-900 (475 pax)

A380-800 (550 pax)
A380-900 (650 pax)

[Edited 2007-08-06 22:10:16]
What?
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23199
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:59 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 35):
Of course if Airbus had done the A380-800 and A380-900 right from the beginning - 450 seat and 575 seat instead of 550 seat and 675 seat - there wouldn't be a gap.

I'm not sure that was an option for Airbus, to be honest.

I think a twin would have been out of the question, especially with Al-Li construction. You'd need 80m in length and probably 11-across (at 17.2") in width and MTOW would have been so high Rolls and GE would have needed to get 125,000lbs (or more) out of the Trent 800 / GE90.

If Airbus went for an 80m 11-abreast single-deck four-engined plane, I don't think the economics would have worked out against the 747. It might have gained a bit from a better wing and better engines, but I expect it would be well less then 10% more efficient and Boeing could have undercut them on price and totally blocked them.

And I don't think a shorter dual-deck plane would have offered sufficient improvements in efficiency, either.

No, I think Airbus was forced by economic reality as driven by ego to make the A380-800 the size and form she took.
 
BoomBoom
Posts: 2459
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 2:26 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 5:38 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 40):
No, I think Airbus was forced by economic reality as driven by ego to make the A380-800 the size and form she took.

They weren't forced to do anything.
They would have been better off doing nothing. Far, far better off...
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
astuteman
Posts: 6345
Joined: Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:50 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 5:55 am

Quoting Brendows (Reply 38):
The 300nm reduction in range was because of a higher payload (9 vs 8 seats abreast) wasn't it?

Don't think so.
The Boeing website now lists 2 ranges for the 789 -
8 500 Nm with 250 pax (presumably 8 abreast)
8 000 Nm with 290 pax (presumably 9-abreast).

8 800 Nm no longer appears.

(compares intriguingly with 8 300Nm with 270 pax quoted for the A358.......)

Regards
 
EI321
Posts: 4788
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 6:02 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 35):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 34):
To then launch a 400-450 seat "A360" would likely slit the A380's throat and stake it through the heart.

Of course if Airbus had done the A380-800 and A380-900 right from the beginning - 450 seat and 575 seat instead of 550 seat and 675 seat - there wouldn't be a gap.

Theres a reason why they did not - demand for aircraft in the 400-500 seat segment is miniscule. How many 400-500 seat aircraft have been sold in the last five years? Neither large enough to address slot constricted airports, or small enough to compete in the mainstream A330 / 777 size market. It would not be very difficult to do an A350-1100 but the demand may not exist.
 
MD-90
Posts: 7835
Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2000 12:45 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 6:14 am

The top five headlines of 2017 are hilarious:

A: Top Five Headlines in 2017:

"Airbus Board Resolves Dubai-Abu Dhabi Ownership Spat"
"Aeroflot Begins Serving US Domestic Market; Southwest Braces For Competition"
"Bombardier Continues CSeries Studies; Launch Possible In 2018"
"Vern Raburn: 'Mistakes Were Made'"
"2017: Year Of The Very Light Jet"
 
helvknight
Posts: 784
Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 10:35 pm

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 6:19 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 31):
Maybe this recent piece might shut some of the blockhead gobbers here....names who I won't mention.... expressionless

Nah, more likely he'll be abused by the Boeing Kool-aid drinkers for being an A fan.  sarcastic 

I would have thought 2 problems with a 787-10 / 787-11 stretch would appear:

Firstly the extra moment is going to mean a lot of strengthening around the barrel joints which will add weight and secondly long stretches of the 787 with the pax layout it has may mean a very long plane that might not fit the 80m box and would be at risk of tailstrikes.

For that reason I think that Boeing will warm over the 777 with CFRP or go straight to Y3 or cede the segment to Airbus.
I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member - Groucho Marx
 
kanebear
Posts: 852
Joined: Tue May 28, 2002 12:06 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 6:23 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 43):
Theres a reason why they did not - demand for aircraft in the 400-500 seat segment is miniscule. How many 400-500 seat aircraft have been sold in the last five years? Neither large enough to address slot constricted airports, or small enough to compete in the mainstream A330 / 777 size market. It would not be very difficult to do an A350-1100 but the demand may not exist.

Apparently so is demand for 550 seat aircraft... I'm hopeful the plane finds a niche and/or operators figure out how best to utilize it (as with the 757). Otherwise they'll never get to 300 sold, much less the 450-500 they need for breakeven (which will go higher as the dollar slides further).
 
BoomBoom
Posts: 2459
Joined: Fri Nov 04, 2005 2:26 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 6:23 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 43):
Theres a reason why they did not - demand for aircraft in the 400-500 seat segment is miniscule. Neither large enough to address slot constricted airports,

Aren't most operators configuring their A388 at about 500 seats?

Are you saying demand for the A388 is minuscule and it will do nothing for slot constricted airports?

I think we finally agree on something.
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
EA772LR
Posts: 1285
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2007 2:18 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 6:23 am

Quoting MD-90 (Reply 44):
The top five headlines of 2017 are hilarious:

A: Top Five Headlines in 2017:

"Airbus Board Resolves Dubai-Abu Dhabi Ownership Spat"
"Aeroflot Begins Serving US Domestic Market; Southwest Braces For Competition"
"Bombardier Continues CSeries Studies; Launch Possible In 2018"
"Vern Raburn: 'Mistakes Were Made'"
"2017: Year Of The Very Light Jet"

"Virgin Atlantic has finally decides on a "greener" fleet replacement opting for 2,000 VLJ's to operate point-to-point services to every destination offering a comfortable 3 person cabin. 1 first class, 1 business class, 1 economy plus class."  Big grin  goodvibes   rotfl   slaphappy 
We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23199
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Aboulafia: A350 Competitive Threat To Boeing

Tue Aug 07, 2007 6:31 am

Quoting Helvknight (Reply 45):
Firstly the extra moment is going to mean a lot of strengthening around the barrel joints which will add weight and secondly long stretches of the 787 with the pax layout it has may mean a very long plane that might not fit the 80m box and would be at risk of tailstrikes.

A 787-10 would be 69m in length and a 787-11 would be 75m, based on Boeing's 6m stretch of the 787-8 to the 787-9. The 777-300ER is 74m in length, so tail-strikes should not be an issue.