Cubsrule
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FL Without The YX Merger

Tue Aug 07, 2007 12:20 pm

What is FL's plan for future growth if they do not acquire YX? It would seem that the potential for expansion in Atlanta and Florida has nearly been exhausted, but there is not a coherent strategy outside of those strong areas. I think we can all agree that DFW was a debacle, and recent cuts at IND and MDW call FL's commitment to the midwest into question. So where will they be in 5-10 years if the merger does not happen? I'm curious to hear someone else's thoughts
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mke717spotter
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RE: FL Without The YX Merger

Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:01 pm

I don't really have any idea about them longterm, but shorterm, there's a few things that come to mind. Those 737s are going to have to go somewhere. Most likely FL would add service to MKE and maybe MCI as well. Besides more P2P flying, I think FL needs to open up a some new markets. Some that come to mind: OMA, DSM, SDF, MSN, LAN, OKC, and PDX. I don't know if those are all logical or not, but I'm sure some of them would work.
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jetbluefan1
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RE: FL Without The YX Merger

Tue Aug 07, 2007 1:12 pm

Does FL have any more gates to expand at ATL? If so, there are still some more cities that FL has yet to enter, such as some listed in the post above. Don't forget about the Left Coast as well as SYR, ALB, OKC, AUS, etc.

If not, then FL is really running out of choices. With the recent pull-downs at MDW, IND and DFW, they don't have many options. BOS-ROC/MDW service has been axed, so it looks like BOS isn't working out well either.

Maybe it would be smart for FL to try expanding some more at STL. Or keep on growing MCO and BWI.

JetBluefan1
 
Cubsrule
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RE: FL Without The YX Merger

Wed Aug 08, 2007 12:45 am

Quoting Mke717spotter (Reply 1):
Most likely FL would add service to MKE and maybe MCI as well.

I wonder why they haven't built up MKE especially some more already. With 2 gates, they could easily add 5-10 flights.

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 2):
Does FL have any more gates to expand at ATL?

Not really.

Quoting JetBluefan1 (Reply 2):
Maybe it would be smart for FL to try expanding some more at STL.

If IND and MDW aren't working so well, I wonder why STL would. WN is a formidable competitor at both IND and STL, and AA is larger at STL than NW is at IND, so the competitve environment would seem worse there.
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2175301
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RE: FL Without The YX Merger

Wed Aug 08, 2007 12:58 am

Long term, my guess is that FL gets taken over and vanishes into someone else.
 
SkyexRamper
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RE: FL Without The YX Merger

Wed Aug 08, 2007 1:03 am

Quoting Mke717spotter (Reply 1):
Those 737s are going to have to go somewhere.

I don't see why they couldn't dry lease them to other airlines around the world or get a deal with apple vacations or other such company to fly them under an agreement.
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mke717spotter
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RE: FL Without The YX Merger

Wed Aug 08, 2007 2:21 am

Quoting SkyexRamper (Reply 5):

Which also reminds me of the idea of FL adding international destinations such as CUN, PVR, PUJ, SJU, etc...I'm sure those 737s could do great on some of those routes.
Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
 
n917me
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RE: FL Without The YX Merger

Wed Aug 08, 2007 2:26 am

Short term, I think FL will lease or sell some of their new aircraft and begin "operation desperate" and flood MKE with as many head to head flights with YX, and offer 29.00 fares. Long term, If the YX deal is not completed, they may start hurting. With possible excess aircraft, proven unstability in markets outside the south (and BWI). Remember, no one though WN would ever "tighten the belt", however they offered a buyout to some employees, cut back on growth and their fuel hedging is slowing. Not that they are in bad shape, but once though industructable.
Joe and Co also need to explain why the 6 month trend of their stock has been on a downward trend. For making "wads" of cash, their stock is not reflecting much.
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: FL Without The YX Merger

Wed Aug 08, 2007 2:29 am

Quoting Mke717spotter (Reply 1):
I think FL needs to open up a some new markets. Some that come to mind: OMA, DSM, SDF, MSN, LAN, OKC, and PDX. I don't know if those are all logical or not, but I'm sure some of them would work.

With a growing O&D market at SLC, I think they could come in and make some headway on a few routes.

Quoting Mke717spotter (Reply 6):
Which also reminds me of the idea of FL adding international destinations such as CUN, PVR, PUJ, SJU, etc...I'm sure those 737s could do great on some of those routes.

I think that following B6 into the Caribbean is a natural and F9 into Mexico as well. All LCC's getting a jump on WN who will likely introduce trans-border North American service in a couple of years. That said, I think FL should perhaps look at some Canadian destinations from the U.S. as well.

Quoting 2175301 (Reply 4):
Long term, my guess is that FL gets taken over and vanishes into someone else.

Very likely if things don't change.
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usairways85
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RE: FL Without The YX Merger

Wed Aug 08, 2007 2:33 am

It doesn't seem like they have much of a plan. They add a good amount of P2P service and then cancel it.
DFW-MDW
EWR-MDW
PIT-MDW
BOS-MDW
PHL-RIC
PHL-PIT
PHL-PBI
PHL-RSW
DFW-LAS
DFW-LAX (did they opperate this route?)
 
travatl
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RE: FL Without The YX Merger

Wed Aug 08, 2007 2:40 am

Quoting Usairways85 (Reply 9):
DFW-LAX (did they opperate this route?)

Yep. DFW-FLL was also short lived. As well as:

PITLGA
HOUGPT
DFWGPT
ICTMDW
 
FlyPeoria
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RE: FL Without The YX Merger

Wed Aug 08, 2007 4:01 am

Maybe FL should "pull a Piedmont" and add one or two medium-sized cities as hubs? CAK or DAY in the Midwest come to mind. Slim pickings further west.
 
0newair0
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RE: FL Without The YX Merger

Wed Aug 08, 2007 4:17 am

I have a feeling that FL will start trying to get rid of the 717s if the merger does not go through.

..just my two cents.
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FlyPNS1
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RE: FL Without The YX Merger

Wed Aug 08, 2007 4:31 am

If they could somehow get gates, FL could still expand heavily from ATL. There are still a lot of markets that FL could easily serve from ATL. However, w/o more gates, ATL growth will stall.

I think FL needs to bite the bullet and just pick one city and really focus hard on it. In order to be successful in business markets, you need to have a decent portfolio of routes. It takes time and a decent number of gates to build up this portfolio and there are only a few markets available.

I actually believe BWI has this potential and FL should push to grow there. Of course, WN is a beast in the market, but I think there is room for both. And with WN's costs rising rapidly, they are less and less likely to want to get into a fare war with FL. I don't know how many empty gates are available on D pier, but last I remember there were still some empty ones. I think the first new routes to be added would be SFO, LAX, CAK, FNT, MSP, LAS. As they build marketshare, FL might even be in a position to try some of its smaller markets (SAV, CHS, PNS) to BWI. This build-up wouldn't be easy and FL would certainly take some losses on these routes initially.

Another option is to try and build-up a secondary market like CAK or DAY. These markets are probably too small to be hubs and would have to rely heavily on stealing traffic from their larger neighbors. Of the two, I think DAY would have the better chance given CVG's super-high fares (which will likely go even higher). In reality, the best hope with building up DAY is that it would position FL to hop into CVG if DL were to someday abandon CVG (likely if DL/NW were to merge).

Quoting N917ME (Reply 7):
Joe and Co also need to explain why the 6 month trend of their stock has been on a downward trend. For making "wads" of cash, their stock is not reflecting much.

The stock of almost every carrier is down despite most carriers being profitable.

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