airbusaddict
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Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Fri Aug 10, 2007 7:01 pm

Hey,
I am wondering what routes from Milwaukee on Midwest Connect, using the Dornier 328 and CRJ-200, are overserved, or have to many flights daily that they can fill two flights into one plane. I am going to use this information on some research that i am trying to do, to see if Midwest can use any planes to start service to another market, such as FSD, FAR, RAP, etc.

Im probably gonna see if the people at the Northwest Airlines ticket counter can see how many people over a weeks period are traveling to Milwaukee via Northwest. Since Northwest is Midwest codeshare partner. I dont think United would, cause if they saw that i was trying to get a new carrier into like Sioux Falls or Fargo, that their hub was just north of the Blue and Chrome Silver tailed battle grounds we know as ORD.

So if anyone can find out the loads on some underserved markets or just give me any information on routes that are not doing to good for Midwest Connect, I would appreciate it so much.
Thanks,
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access-air
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:52 pm

I for one think that Skyway/Midwest Connect is stupid for wanting to drop their Beech 1900s and routes that they serve....
The cylce is repeating itself...The commuter airline in the beginning serves smaller communities with small 15-19 passenger turboprops and little by little get larger aircraft often times jets....Pretty soon all the smaller planes and cities somehow dont matter any more...They are just as important as all the new bigger cities but they get cut out of the picture .
Now it will take someone else coming in to replace them..But this time it will be worse because they wont have that Online connection potnetial that Skyway provides and these smaller communities once again are lft out in the cold!!
I think once Commuters these days get a a taste of the bigger planes and bigger cities they often forget what put them into the place they are in to afford the larger aircraft.
A successful Commuter Airline is one that can servve both smaller and larger communities and not be worried about keeping up with the latest games that all the other airlines play. If they are worried that their smaller communities are not showing as much profit as they would like...Then maybe they need to start little advertising campagins or actually send a Sale representative (Oh theres a concept that has been swept away) to local travel agencies to help bolster bookings.
Just what will happen in the smaller towns when Skyway decides to fly their last Beech 1900s?
Plain and simple, smaller communities get cut off again. They need airlines that are committed to serving those smaller communities no matter how large their system gets. Take it from a person that has worked for Two commuter airlines in such a town...now we have nothing...We have to drive....to either MLI RFD or Chicago... Sad


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tjwgrr
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Fri Aug 10, 2007 10:48 pm

Quoting Access-Air (Reply 1):
Just what will happen in the smaller towns when Skyway decides to fly their last Beech 1900s?

Great Lakes is going to be flying the EAS routes out of MKE for YX. Skyway is getting rid of all their B1900's. This has been discussed on and off here for quite some time.
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access-air
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Fri Aug 10, 2007 11:44 pm

Quoting Tjwgrr (Reply 2):
Great Lakes is going to be flying the EAS routes out of MKE for YX.

Wow this is news tro me... I wasnt aware that Great Lakes was goiong to come back to the Upper Midwest....I know they are poised to take over the routes that were closed down in to STL for AA when RegionsAir was shut down....but I have not heard anything about Great Lakes coming back into these cities....
Maybe they will reinstate service to alot of the cities they walked away from when they packed it all in and moved to Denver.
Heck they could pick up their Milkrun from Spencer to Ft Dodge to Mason City the Waterloo and fly into MKE from there....They could fly Quincy to Burlington to MKE....Thats in addition to the routes picked up from Skyway.

I think that MKE has to potential for alot of connecting traffic to a majority of the US business centres. And at least YX would be willing to interline with a regional airline as apposed to Southwest aboout 70 miles South at MDW....

Just thought I would thro in that idea....Sheesh, liitle by little I keep revealing all of my ideas for if I was going to start my own Commuter airline....Oh well...LOL.....

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mke717spotter
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Fri Aug 10, 2007 11:52 pm

Quoting Access-Air (Reply 3):
Wow this is news tro me... I wasnt aware that Great Lakes was goiong to come back to the Upper Midwest....

That's because after it was announced that Great Lakes had been awarded the routes, we haven't heard anything on the matter since.
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access-air
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Fri Aug 10, 2007 11:57 pm

Quoting Mke717spotter (Reply 4):
Quoting Access-Air (Reply 3):
Wow this is news tro me... I wasnt aware that Great Lakes was goiong to come back to the Upper Midwest....

That's because after it was announced that Great Lakes had been awarded the routes, we haven't heard anything on the matter since.

Ahh, that is prolly the reason we havent seen more about it....thanks!!  Smile

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EXAAUADL
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 12:12 am

Quoting Airbusaddict (Thread starter):
Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Well starting with your grammar...that doesnt do too GOOD.
 
masseybrown
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 12:16 am

Quoting Access-Air (Reply 1):
Just what will happen in the smaller towns when Skyway decides to fly their last Beech 1900s?

Some EAS routes in the East are approaching termination because they are hitting the $200/pax subsidy limit. Since a number of them are in PA and WV, states with influential congressional representation, we may see the subsidy increased if the clamor gets loud enough. With enough subsidy, a Wright Flyer could make money.

Just my opinion: Neither political party would want to see air service cut off to small towns as we go into an election year. The GOP probably won't be happy, but if the Dems propose a subsidy increase, I bet they'll go along. The EAS program doesn't really cost that much.
 
SpencerII
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 12:48 am

Quoting Airbusaddict (Thread starter):
I am going to use this information on some research that i am trying to do, to see if Midwest can use any planes to start service to another market, such as FSD, FAR, RAP, etc.

The information you are seeking is available in many data bases that airline market research departments utilize.
At the airline I work at, we continually review the very information you are seeking to see if it is feasible to consider such services. Most airline companies are seeking the best return they can on the resources they allocate to a market. They are not looking to service cities simply to have "presence" there.

Im not sure where you're going with this, but Midwest has a department for market research & market expansion. If you're interested in working for them in that department, my suggestion would be to contact them about a position. You will probably need a degree and some additional classes from IATA in market research.

[Edited 2007-08-10 17:51:28]

[Edited 2007-08-10 17:54:56]
 
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JBo
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 1:30 am

I can't speak for every Skyway Beech route, but there are a number that have been screaming for something larger for a long time ... which is why many cities have been upgraded to the FRJ.

The 1900s, while having alot of life in them yet, are among the older side of the 1900D line. (all within the first 100 built)

I think the reason we're not down to 4 1900s (the minimum we need given the 4 EAS overnights) is because some are still needed to run FRJ lines since we're still tight on crews.

Who knows when Great Lakes is going to get their act together on MKE. They're probably focusing on STL right now since they had no service at all when Regions shut down, while Skyway agreed to operate the EAS on a new subsidy until Great Lakes gets their act together.
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access-air
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 3:11 am

Quoting JBo (Reply 9):
can't speak for every Skyway Beech route, but there are a number that have been screaming for something larger for a long time ... which is why many cities have been upgraded to the FRJ.

Yes, they are screaming for the FRJ but are they willing to put their money where their mouths are and fill those planes...
I am sure MKG could fill it....As could other cities. However there are still some cities that just cant sem to get their "stuff" together and help the airline out. I am not saying that these smaller cities should pay Skyway to fly into their cities, but they surely could help by offering the airline advertizing packages to promote the local air service and point out its value to the comunites that they serve.
The biggest problem with "EAS Airlines" is that im most cases, they just put flights in a market without co-ordinating the flights to conenct with any flights in the buh they are flying into. Not all do this, but some just apply for th Subsidies just for the Subsidies sake...

Actually, to illustrate my point....Skyway prolly about a year ago or so pulled their flights from Lansing to Milwaukee....The whole reason their ridership was not working is that the plane to/from Lansing was Based in MKE....They ran the schedule backwards..Insterad of basing the plane over in Lansing the reverse happened and most if not all the flights to/from misconnected or didnt connect at all with Big-YX....I realize that Big-YX runs flights like that as MKE is the Origin of the planes into out stations but this same philosphy worked against the flights into Lansing and thats why it died!!
Other cities in the Skyway system have a more traditional set of flights that work well with the comings and goings in MKE....Even Big-YX schedules some of their flights in the correct way to connect with each other and the Skyway flights....
Do you all understand what I am trying to say here?

I just think that Skyway just doesnt want the "stigma" of flying a prop airplane....Somewhere along the line, we have indoctrinated the travelling public into thinking that prop planes are passe and unsafe.....Gosh I think I had this conversation many many times before in different threads.....

Access-Air
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N2DCaves
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 3:44 am

Quoting EXAAUADL (Reply 6):

Ending with your grammar...that don't do well.


 Wink
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JBo
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 4:19 am

Quoting Access-Air (Reply 10):
out its value to the comunites that they serve.
The biggest problem with "EAS Airlines" is that im most cases, they just put flights in a market without co-ordinating the flights to conenct with any flights in the buh they are flying into. Not all do this, but some just apply for th Subsidies just for the Subsidies sake...

Actually, part of the EAS bidding process are proposed flight schedules. Most of the EAS flights in the Skyway system are arranged to make the most connections out of a few flights ... thus an early morning departure and a midday departure, with a midday and late night arrival.

Currently the only cities in the YX system with Beech-only service, but not part of EAS, are MKG, RHI, and MQT. There are a few others, like GRR and MSN that see a few Beeches along with mostly jets.

I do not know if RHI or MQT could support the FRJ on flights that aren't tied to the EAS cities, but I suppose it's plausible.

The EAS cities themselves are limited to the 1900 in part by their bid, and in part by supporting services at the airports. In the case of MBL, the airport itself is not certified for 30+ pax aircraft under scheduled ops.
I'd take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day.
 
airbusaddict
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 4:46 am

Well I started the topic at like 4:00 in the morning. But yet, i think i was having a blonde moment. Lol. So are they ever going to take the D328 out?
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stapleton
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 4:59 am

Quoting Airbusaddict (Thread starter):
such as FSD

I'm going to give you a head start. One of the databases you can use is:

http://ostpxweb.dot.gov/aviation/X-5...le_files/consumerairfarereport.htm

Go to table 6 for each quarter. It will give you the market (It is alphbetized directionally, so MKE-FSD will show up but not FSD-MKE). You will find the market non-stop distance, the number of passengers (keep in mind, this is total average per day both ways so you have to divide by 2 to get the one-way traffic), the average fare (If you divide the fare by the mileage you will get the simple non-stop yield) and market share and average fare for the two two carriers.

The average number of passengers from FSD to MKE each way for the last 4 quarters were:
Q12007 6.22
Q42006 5.86
Q32006 7.55
Q22006 5.38

Have fun!
 
airbusaddict
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:14 am

Most of the passengers though would be connecting the airport says. What the FSD airport wants is airlines to new destinations. But to hubs, so the passengers could connect through MKE. Out of a Poll I did out of 50 people. 35 said they would fly on Midwest if they offered a lower fare than UA.
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airbusaddict
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:16 am

Most of the passengers though would be connecting the airport says. What the FSD airport wants is airlines to new destinations. But to hubs, so the passengers could connect through MKE. Out of a Poll I did out of 50 people. 35 said they would fly on Midwest if they offered a lower fare than UA. As it seams here!

Milwaukee-Sioux Falls: Northwest, Passengers: 81.25 at the fare of: 303.58 compared to United carrying 16 passengers at the fare of 210 dollars.
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iowaman
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:26 am

Quoting Stapleton (Reply 14):
The average number of passengers from FSD to MKE each way for the last 4 quarters were:
Q12007 6.22
Q42006 5.86
Q32006 7.55
Q22006 5.38

Sounds like a great market for high connecting, low yield, money losing, passengers.
 
airbusaddict
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:42 am

Quote:
Sounds like a great market for high connecting, low yield, money losing, passengers.



So are you saying FSD doesnt have the potential for YX? If they dont, i dont see how DLH got it...
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stapleton
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:49 am

Quoting Airbusaddict (Reply 16):
Milwaukee-Sioux Falls: Northwest, Passengers: 81.25 at the fare of: 303.58 compared to United carrying 16 passengers at the fare of 210 dollars.

Just to clarify, the 81.25 shows NW share of the market (81.25%) United carried 16%.

Quoting Airbusaddict (Reply 16):
Out of a Poll I did out of 50 people. 35 said they would fly on Midwest if they offered a lower fare than UA. As it seams here!

While 35 sounds good, here is the dilema. There are two types of passengers on the flights to hubs. One is the passenger flying to the hub, the other is they passenger flying through the hub. Look at the following simple comparison of revenue:

FSD - MKE Local 5 Pax at $200 = $1000
FSD - Connecting 35 Pax at $300 = $10,500 (But you have to share this with the connecting flight) so it ends up being: $1000 + $5,250 = 6,250

Now, increase the share of passengers just to MKE:

FSD - MKE Local 15 Pax at $200 = $3000
FSD - Connecting 25 Pax at $300 = $7500 (Again, share this portion with the connecting flight) and you have:
$3000 + 3,750 = 6,750

Same number of people on the plane, but this simple difference is often what it takes to either make money or lose money. When you consider airlines often make only around 5% return on their money, this 8% difference does and will make a difference.

So, consider this, United in the FSD - ORD market carries about 40 people per day each way that do not connect. If they have 280 seats, that means those 40 people occupy about 14% of the available seats. If that is the magic number that Midwest would need to carry just to MKE to make money, then they would need to carry 14 people out of every 100 seats and currently, MKE is only about 6 each way. If Midwest can stimulate the market to MKE, it might work. If they cannot, it probably would not work.

I hope this gives you some information to play with. I would have given anything 20 years ago to have that data available when I was your age. I'm not trying to discourage you, I just want to give you a head start so that you know how to use the data and can actually make informed recommendations. Good luck!
 
MidEx216
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:56 am

Quoting EXAAUADL (Reply 6):
Well starting with your grammar...that doesnt do too GOOD

Routes that don't do WELL
 
airbusaddict
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:59 am

Okay. So what if they didnt start off with the CRJ-200's. Lets say the move some CR2's to MSN, leaving some D328's in outfield. If you put two daily flights on a 32 seat D328, that means 6 out of 32 seats are not connecting. which means the other 27 seats, can be filled up with connecting passengers. Now what Midwest would have to do is find a point in time of the day where they can get the most seats, such as a morning flight between 6:30a to 8:30a and evening flight leaving at about 5:00p-7:00p where they dont need to have their own gate at FSD, sharing a gate with either NW or United, which at codeshare expense, might be less in cost.

Though, in the first year, Midwest would not need to pay landing fees, gates leasing, etc. So if they were to try the FSD market out, the could do it within 6 months to a year, and see if they could keep the route, or have to shut it down, such as in a trial period that UA is doing with FSD-DEN on the 737's between September and January.

With 64 Seats daily if they were to start two daily flights to and from MKE FSD, they would have (according to the dot thingy) 3 seats on average in each aircraft.

Now what your focusing on in that Dot presentation, is passengers connecting to Milwaukee, from a hub such as MSP or ORD. Now what they arent counting, is people driving from ORD to Milwaukee, which could possibly be a small to medium sized amount of passengers. But if Midwest were to start FSD, as for possibly that trial prediction, like i said before, how do we know that there wouldnt be an increase in passengers flying the FSD-MKE MKE-FSD route?
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kcrwflyer
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:59 am

Quoting Airbusaddict (Reply 18):
So are you saying FSD doesnt have the potential for YX? If they dont, i dont see how DLH got it...

Its not always about the size of the market itself, but instead the demand in that market for more additional seats and its potential for growth. DLH has less competition than FSD, and that is also attractive to a carrier in some situations. DLH has less airlines than FSD. YX will be able to charge more on a lot of connecting routes since they wont be competing with UA and DL, but instead just NW.
 
stapleton
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:15 am

Quoting Airbusaddict (Reply 21):
how do we know that there wouldnt be an increase in passengers flying the FSD-MKE MKE-FSD route?

There most likely would be an increase. You are also correct that the FRJ would more likely work than the CRJ at this time. Now you are starting to put the pieces together. But keep in mind also what

Quoting KcrwFlyer (Reply 22):

said. What is the competition doing and what will they do to react.
 
kcrwflyer
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:30 am

Quoting Airbusaddict (Reply 21):
But if Midwest were to start FSD, as for possibly that trial prediction, like i said before, how do we know that there wouldnt be an increase in passengers flying the FSD-MKE MKE-FSD route?

Most new routes lead to some sort of market stimulation, so one could assume that a few more people would fly each day.
 
airbusaddict
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:30 am

My guess to what UA would react is adding either another non stop daily CR7 or CR2 or trying Mainline.
Northwest would not do anything, because they codeshare, and yet they are still YX competition, there would be no need for NW to react to this. UA is the only one that should react to this because it would be new service to a hub north of ORD. If Midwest started service to FSD, i could see them using that 50,000 dollars to use it for paper ads and Television ads.

My Aunt owns a small Emboridery company, but she can also make that T-Shirt Logo things. If i made a deal, i would have her make T-Shirts, we could sell them online or at the airport or someplace, that would have the Midwest logo, and say "Keep Midwest at SF, Book Your Tickets Now" or something attractible from the public. (i think for the public is what i shuld type it like.)
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kcrwflyer
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 7:41 am

Quoting Airbusaddict (Reply 25):
My Aunt owns a small Emboridery company, but she can also make that T-Shirt Logo things. If i made a deal, i would have her make T-Shirts, we could sell them online or at the airport or someplace, that would have the Midwest logo, and say "Keep Midwest at SF, Book Your Tickets Now" or something attractible from the public. (i think for the public is what i shuld type it like.)

Your age is going to make this very difficult to pull off. Also, you dont work for an airport and thats who the airlines talk to. Not saying you cant somehow pull this off, it just seems less than possible.

Quoting Airbusaddict (Reply 25):
My guess to what UA would react is adding either another non stop daily CR7 or CR2 or trying Mainline. Northwest would not do anything, because they codeshare, and yet they are still YX competition, there would be no need for NW to react to this.

I doubt that UA is going to care much about two 328s to MKE. As far as competition goes, thats not much. UA wouldn't loose a noticeable amount of pax to YX anyway. Looking at the amount of service UA has, they must have a large base of loyal customers. YX wont change that, and UA knows that.

NW on the other hand... Well they have the tendency to react to just about anything at any given time. To say they wouldn't react to something is probably an insult in the eyes of their planning department.
 
SpencerII
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 7:53 am

One of the biggest competitors to FSD that has been and will be in the future, and all airline planning departments look at it, & that is WN at OMA. . There are many other factors that determine where an airline places it's resources. At the airline I work for, market expansion is based on many things, including median income of an area, the business index of an area, operational incidentals i.e inclement wx operational expenditures etc.

I don't mean to sound discouraging, but for FSD, I don't believe a letter writing campaign or a Tshirt campagin will cause anyone to give it a second thought. ON the other hand, if you can get 30 businesses in FSD to commit to & guarantee at least
$50,000 in ticket purchases each over a 12 month period, then you will have adequate reason to go to YX with for consideration. That my friend will be very difficult to find in that market.
 
airbusaddict
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 1:43 pm

No, I am on the airport master plan comittee, and also put in like ideas and stuff for future airlines. etc. and how to get them. But no matter what i do, it will still have to go through the airport. And the t-shirt thing was just an idea. Lol. Free Marketing!
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JBo
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 3:01 pm

Quoting Airbusaddict (Reply 28):
No, I am on the airport master plan comittee, and also put in like ideas and stuff for future airlines. etc.

You're between 13 and 15 and are on a planning comittee?  sarcastic 
I'd take the awe of understanding over the awe of ignorance any day.
 
airbusaddict
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 3:27 pm

Yeah. I sent them a letter telling them how they should get airliners to Sioux Falls (when i was like 11) then they said, why dont you attend these meetings, then they put me as the youngest Airport board member. So ya, it was pretty cool.
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SpencerII
Posts: 259
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RE: Midwest Connect Routes That Dont Do Good

Sat Aug 11, 2007 10:06 pm

Quoting Airbusaddict (Reply 30):
Yeah. I sent them a letter telling them how they should get airliners to Sioux Falls (when i was like 11) then they said, why dont you attend these meetings, then they put me as the youngest Airport board member. So ya, it was pretty cool

Even so, as somene who has worked in planning and market expansion for an airline for quite sometime, I can tell you the only thing that will drive another airline to offer service into Sioux Falls is additonal passengers and committment from the community. Something Sioux Falls will not do believe me every airline out there has a file and docket number for FSD. However good luck with your endeavor, and do some reserach into how communities like Wichita, Fresno, Boise, & Spokane have marketed their airport to potential airlines beyond just "we need you here". Then you may see some results to getting the additional traffic you believe your city airport needs.

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