n917me
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Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Fri Aug 10, 2007 10:47 pm

With today being August 10, 2007, AirTrans offer is "scheduled" to end. However, Joe and Co have a history of extending their offer over and over. So, will Joe stick to his word and pull the offer if YX says NO?

My thoughts are that Joe and Co will extend the offer and make a statement that they are extending the offer because there are other parties interested in YX, and they want to give YX time to evaluate all options, however after YX reviews its options, the board will clearly see that FL is the best option as no one else can create the synergies that a combine YX/FL will. The combination of the two carriers will create the largest coast to coast low cost carrier. We aim at taking the best from both carriers.... FL is the only carrier to offer free
satellite radio in all seats.. FL is the only low cost carrier with Business Class. (ummmm, US Airways is a LCC with first and business)...
Same crap.. different day......
 
B757capt
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Fri Aug 10, 2007 11:19 pm

Quoting N917ME (Thread starter):
With today being August 10, 2007, AirTrans offer is "scheduled" to end. However, Joe and Co have a history of extending their offer over and over. So, will Joe stick to his word and pull the offer if YX says NO?

My thoughts are that Joe and Co will extend the offer and make a statement that they are extending the offer because there are other parties interested in YX, and they want to give YX time to evaluate all options, however after YX reviews its options, the board will clearly see that FL is the best option as no one else can create the synergies that a combine YX/FL will. The combination of the two carriers will create the largest coast to coast low cost carrier. We aim at taking the best from both carriers.... FL is the only carrier to offer free
satellite radio in all seats.. FL is the only low cost carrier with Business Class. (ummmm, US Airways is a LCC with first and business)...
Same crap.. different day......

AirTran will not extend the offer. YX's investors will begin to sue and the leasing companies will begin to raise leasing prices or pull the airplanes completely.

Either way Midwest has written its final page. Hell is might be cheep for FL to get the planes right from the leaser then buy midwest and all of their debt.
The views written by this user are in no manner the views of my employer and should not be thought as such.
 
MKENut
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Fri Aug 10, 2007 11:54 pm

Quoting B757capt (Reply 1):
AirTran will not extend the offer. YX's investors will begin to sue and the leasing companies will begin to raise leasing prices or pull the airplanes completely.

Either way Midwest has written its final page. Hell is might be cheep for FL to get the planes right from the leaser then buy midwest and all of their debt.

Why would the leasing companies raise the leasing prices on Midwest's Aircraft? Aren't lease agreements signed contracts? Sounds like collusion to me.
 
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mke717spotter
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Fri Aug 10, 2007 11:55 pm

Here's an article from the Milwaukee paper regarding NW making a bid for YX:
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=645072

It also mentions in the article that Joe has "vowed" not the extend the deadline again because he wants a deal ASAP. Looks like we may be heading into the final hours of all this. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for YX!  crossfingers 
Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
 
airtran717
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 12:01 am

Quoting B757capt (Reply 1):
AirTran will not extend the offer.

So certain? Do you know something we don't?

I don't hear any singing at all, much less from a fat lady.
 
sideflare75
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 12:23 am

Quoting B757capt (Reply 1):
AirTran will not extend the offer. YX's investors will begin to sue and the leasing companies will begin to raise leasing prices or pull the airplanes completely.



I have to ask also why would the leasing companies raise the lease rates? Midwest met it's covenants in the second quarter and the lease rates on all the 717s went down. I see no reason why Boeing would just go and up them.

Quoting B757capt (Reply 1):
Either way Midwest has written its final page. Hell is might be cheep for FL to get the planes right from the leaser then buy midwest and all of their debt.

Midwest has virtually no debt other then the aircraft leases. Lot's of cash though.
 
daus
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 12:26 am

Quoting B757capt (Reply 1):
and the leasing companies will begin to raise leasing prices or pull the airplanes completely.

Just utter nonsense. The leasing company would love to see AirTran go away. A merger means one less customer for them.
 
n917me
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 2:45 am

Quoting B757capt (Reply 1):
AirTran will not extend the offer. YX's investors will begin to sue and the leasing companies will begin to raise leasing prices or pull the airplanes completely.

They just had their 717 leases lowered,,, why they hell would they raise them based on a failed FL takeover attempt????
 
airtran717
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 3:08 am

I'd have to say B757capt is merely voicing a hopeful opinion. Never say never, especially in the airline industry.
 
Crewchief
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 3:16 am

I don't think AAI will extend for 3 reasons:

1) Extending at the current offer ($9 cash + .582 shares) is currently worth only $12.05/share, not the $14 plus offer of past months, and less than the $14.30 current price of MEH. If AAI shares further decline, their offer will be worth less and less. That reduces the likelyhood that those who did not tender previously will tender.

2) AAI's shares sell at a PE about the same as LUV -- 27 or so. Yet LUV appears better positioned to ride out downturns. As the economy starts to turn south (after all, it's cyclical), AAI's PE should fall. Extending without making the offer richer will hardly convince MEH die-hards that AAI offers a path to riches.

3) I don't think AAI wants, or can afford, a bidding war against 3 other suitors.

Of course, I could be wrong, and YMMV.
 
sideflare75
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 3:32 am

Quoting Crewchief (Reply 9):
1) Extending at the current offer ($9 cash + .582 shares) is currently worth only $12.05/share, not the $14 plus offer of past months, and less than the $14.30 current price of MEH. If AAI shares further decline, their offer will be worth less and less. That reduces the likelyhood that those who did not tender previously will tender.

The offer currently is worth $15.21/share not $12.05. That is using AirTrans current stock price of $10.63. A hefty premium over Midwests current price of $14.37. The original $15.00 a share offer was made when AirTrans stock was $10.27. Anything over that and the offer goes up.
 
Crewchief
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 3:53 am

Thanks, I and my calculator stand corrected. However, I stand by my two remaining points, and add one more:

In the past 3 months AAI has fallen 5%, while MEH has fallen about 1%. Check it out in Yahoo charts.
 
B757capt
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 5:34 am

Folks its common knowledge, go look at Vanguard for example. After they got the md-80 the leasers lowered the rates for them, gave them an even better deal then originally agreed.

Afterward the company went out of business and the leasing company is stuck with an airplane nobody wants, 3 of them are still at VCV and payments they had to make.

Midwest is yes, in a better situation then Vanguard was but the economics are the same. Lets look at YX on its own, a great carrier that people locally in MKE love to fly but there is a problem. THE PEOPLE ARE NOT FLYING. Load factors as reported on the conference call by tim "Could be better" So the future of Midwest?

Not so bright, they continue to purchase a/c that are costing them lots of money when a new long haul fleet type is needed. If you listen to the investment call that is on the press room of the Midwest website all 7 major investors wanted to know 2 simple questions. 1. How can you ignore the AirTran deal? 2. IF you are going to ignore it then fine but, tell us how you will make the money internally that AirTran is willing to offer now? THEY DID NOT HAVE ANY ANSWERS. Tim told the listeners that they are not going to talk about business plans that have not been announced.

Two very simple questions folks that no body at Midwest seems to have the answers to. Blame it on whatever you like, Fighting AirTran required money, fuel wasting mdw-80's required money , low yields didn;t get us money, high salaries mad us spend money,.....Whatever you blame there is one simple answer, Midwest airlines fails to make money quarter after quarter and there is a carrier that has a good plan to keep the employees of Midwest on-board embrace them and expand MKE. AirTran has promised that, now folks make your comments but as of 3:33pm central time I have yet to see any better offer.

Whatever happens I do wish the YX employees the best, no one anywhere wants to see a bad thing happen to any carrier. I'm a proud employee of FL and yes I am partial to a YX buy out but, all in all may the best company win. Even if its not mine.
The views written by this user are in no manner the views of my employer and should not be thought as such.
 
Crewchief
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:08 am

Quoting B757capt (Reply 12):
Midwest airlines fails to make money quarter after quarter

I can't find any facts to back up your statement. In particualr, the 10-Qs don't agree with it. Where do your facts come from? Certainly not their securities filings!

Quoting B757capt (Reply 12):
THE PEOPLE ARE NOT FLYING.

Recent headlines on Yahoo don't agree -- "Midwest Traffic up 25.9%", and stories carry a load factor of 84.6%. Evidently someone is flying.

Quoting B757capt (Reply 12):
now folks make your comments but as of 3:33pm central time I have yet to see any better offer.

Although not at offer, at 4:31 Eastern the WSJ carried a story about Northwest considering a passive stake in anticipation of a possible bid.

This hunt isn't over yet.
 
jibblets
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 6:15 am

Quoting B757capt (Reply 12):
Midwest airlines fails to make money quarter after quarter

Except for the last quarter, and three out of four quarters last year. But, as usual, facts are not important in these discussions.
 
sideflare75
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 7:51 am

Quoting B757capt (Reply 12):
Folks its common knowledge, go look at Vanguard for example. After they got the md-80 the leasers lowered the rates for them, gave them an even better deal then originally agreed.

Afterward the company went out of business and the leasing company is stuck with an airplane nobody wants, 3 of them are still at VCV and payments they had to make.

Midwest is yes, in a better situation then Vanguard was but the economics are the same. Lets look at YX on its own, a great carrier that people locally in MKE love to fly but there is a problem. THE PEOPLE ARE NOT FLYING. Load factors as reported on the conference call by tim "Could be better" So the future of Midwest?

You are not really comparing Midwest to Vanguard are you? That airline was going out of business for a long time before they finally folded. I don't think the economics of Midwest are anywhere near what they were like at Vangaurd.

Here's a quote from Tim from the second quarter results release:

"While the pricing environment was challenging, demand for travel remained strong in the second quarter," said Timothy E. Hoeksema, chairman and chief executive officer. He noted that the company reported all-time record traffic and load factors for the quarter and first half."

All time record traffic and load factors doesn't exactly sound like no one is flying. Same thing was released today for July. The only problem is the tough pricing environment and Midwest is not the only airline that has been singing that tune lately.

Sure they had to spend some money to get the 2 -88's up and flying, but how much revenue will they bring in now that they are both flying? You have to spend money to make money. And all the while contrary to what some people want to believe Midwest is profitable. Take away the defense costs and they are even more so.

It seems to me that there are alot of people who think AirTran is trying to save Midwest by taking them over when in reality this takeover will help save AirTran. I'm not saying that AirTran is going out of business like most say Midwest is sure to do but no one really knows for sure now do they?

Whatever we all believe this will all be over soon and I hope the best for all the employees on both sides.
 
n917me
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 9:59 am

Quoting B757capt (Reply 12):
THE PEOPLE ARE NOT FLYING. Load factors as reported on the conference call by tim "Could be better" So the future of Midwest?

A. Have you tried to non rev lately???
B. YX load factors are in the 80's. Up over last year, and the year before...

What hole have you been living in that "THE PEOPLE ARE NOT FLYING"?????
 
RJNUT
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 10:06 am

much over 80 percent LF means you are turning away alot of passngers and a great many of your flights are going out completely FULL! and YX is not charging $79 fares...most times MCI-LGA is going for $700-$990 roundtrip...And FL wants to come in and lower fares...WHY!!!!!!

The trend is going to have to be towards higher fares and FL's model is completely based on the opposite..I'm not buying it!
 
n917me
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 10:23 am

Quoting RJNUT (Reply 17):
much over 80 percent LF means you are turning away alot of passngers and a great many of your flights are going out completely FULL! and YX is not charging $79 fares...most times MCI-LGA is going for $700-$990 roundtrip...And FL wants to come in and lower fares...WHY!!!!!!

I can tell you that I look at our bookings daily and go through the VCR's to see what people are paying from my city. YX also has a history of getting a lot of close in bookings ($$$). Last minute fares (under 3 days) RT to MKE are around $800-1200. OW are around 375-400. This is for RJ and 717 service.
 
SkyyMaster
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 10:33 am

Quoting AirTran717 (Reply 4):
AirTran will not extend the offer.

So certain? Do you know something we don't?

FL seems rather hellbent of getting YX, they will keep at it till they get them. How many times now have they extended their offers? Sooner or later, YX shareholders and mgt. will give in. Really sad too, one of the nations best airlines biting the dust and replaced by just another very average airline.
 
daus
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 10:47 am

I hadn't seen this posted anywhere so here it goes...

From the WSJ today... The only way a NWA involvement would make sense I guess.

"The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Northwest Airlines Corp was considering partnering as a passive investor with one of the parties now weighing a bid for Milwaukee-based Midwest.

Citing a person with knowledge of the situation, the newspaper said Northwest hoped to protect a marketing agreement it signed recently with Midwest."


http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/pro...?feed=OBR&Date=20070810&ID=7313625
 
nitrohelper
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 9:52 pm

It's now past midnight in Milwaukee, what's the news? Maybe we have to wait until Monday.
I prefer Northwest with private investors over AirTran's offer. Sounds like that could be more cash than stock.
 
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mke717spotter
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sat Aug 11, 2007 11:52 pm

Yeah, its now nearing 10AM here in MKE and I can't seem to find anything on the matter.
Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
 
KarlB737
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:12 am

I think here is the reason you haven't heard anything on this matter.

Courtesy: WISN-TV

Airtran Urges Midwest Air Group To Agree To Merger

"Orlando, Fla.-based AirTran Holdings Inc.'s $389 million offer expires at midnight Friday, but both sides have until start of market Monday to still decide on a deal."

http://www.wisn.com/news/13871540/detail.html
 
SkyexRamper
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:22 am

It would be a bad time now to agree to a merger with AirTran. Since YX already has 3 other companies looking at them, it would be in best interest to see who wants to pay the most.
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mke717spotter
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:37 am

So would the merger be announced at the start of the start market on Monday or sometime between now and then?
Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
 
SkyexRamper
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sun Aug 12, 2007 12:45 am

Quoting Mke717spotter (Reply 25):
So would the merger be announced at the start of the start market on Monday or sometime between now and then?

Midwest has stated that any news will be made public Monday.
Good Luck to all Skyway Pilots! It's been great working with you!
 
Mainland
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sun Aug 12, 2007 4:03 am

Quoting Mke717spotter (Reply 25):
So would the merger be announced at the start of the start market on Monday or sometime between now and then?

Skyex is right in indicating any news regarding an extension of the tender offer will come on Monday, probably before the market opens.

However, AirTran has come out with some news regarding the tender offer. Total tendered shares have increased to approx 15.5 million shares, or 62.7% -- up slightly (900,000 shares) from June. I wouldn't be shocked if a good portion of that increase comes from Octavian and or Litespeed who have continued to buy (at least Octavian for sure) MEH shares in the past 2 months.
You don't need a passport to know what state you're in...
 
justplanenutz
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sun Aug 12, 2007 4:33 am

Quoting SkyexRamper (Reply 24):
It would be a bad time now to agree to a merger with AirTran. Since YX already has 3 other companies looking at them, it would be in best interest to see who wants to pay the most.

That actually makes it the best time to sell--when there is the most competition. If FL goes away, the others most likely do as well (NW for sure).
 
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mke717spotter
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sun Aug 12, 2007 4:43 am

Quoting Mainland (Reply 27):
Skyex is right in indicating any news regarding an extension of the tender offer will come on Monday, probably before the market opens.

I wasn't talking about an extension of the offer, rather if they reach some sort of deal to merge would we hear it Monday morning or between now and then?
Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
 
SkyexRamper
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sun Aug 12, 2007 7:05 am

Quoting JustPlaneNutz (Reply 28):
That actually makes it the best time to sell--when there is the most competition. If FL goes away, the others most likely do as well (NW for sure).

You don't want to under ball your own company if you're jumping ship. Might as well get the most money for yourself and the company.
Good Luck to all Skyway Pilots! It's been great working with you!
 
justplanenutz
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:37 pm

I don't really know what under balling a company means, but YX is not Microsoft or Wal-Mart. It has opened its books to the 4 parties for 10 days now, plenty of time for buyers to value it.

Again, the time to sell is when you have the most buyers competing. If it was your house and there 4 interested parties, would you tell the only one that had made an offer but also had a deadline to beat it or would you tell the other 3 to put up or shut up?
 
sllevin
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Mon Aug 13, 2007 4:44 am

Quoting Crewchief (Reply 11):
In the past 3 months AAI has fallen 5%, while MEH has fallen about 1%. Check it out in Yahoo charts.

MEH is being propped up by the fact that there's a persistent suitor in the works with an offer still greater than the stock price. If anything, AAi is getting the hit because with declines at MEH, the deal they've offered begins to look like "chasing the deal."

I personally expect MEH to accept the offer before the start of trading Monday. I think Leonard WILL pull the offer and it's beginning to dawn on MEH management that they will look very bad if the stock plummets back to it's pre-AAI offer price in the $9 range. Especially in the face of a growing tender positon for AAI, they would have to do something with massively tangible results quickly -- and last quarter was a step in the wrong direction.

Steve
 
CitrusCritter
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Mon Aug 13, 2007 5:28 am

Quoting Sllevin (Reply 32):
pre-AAI offer price in the $9 range.

In December 2005 when the original private offer was made, stock was in the $3 range, and then in October 2006 when the second private offer was made, stock was in the $5.50 range. If it were to fall back under $10 or lower, shareholder suits would be forthcoming in short time.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Mon Aug 13, 2007 6:59 am

Quoting CitrusCritter (Reply 33):
In December 2005 when the original private offer was made, stock was in the $3 range,

Joe needs to be careful with this point, which he has made publicly several times. MEH added nearly $6 in value to its stock in the year proceeding public announcement of AAI's tender offer. I think you are correct that if the stock decreases to much below $10 if the offer is withdrawn, lawsuits will result. However, it's entirely possible that the stock settles in the $10.50-$11 region, and then I think things become a lot murkier.

After all, the April increase in the tender offer hardly increased the stock price at all (in fact, the stock closed lower on 2 April, the day AAI announced the increase), which would indicate that some of the increase in stock price over the past 6 months may not be related to the tender offer. If that's the case, and given the rather precipitous drop in AAI's stock price over the past 2 months, MEH could argue in good faith that they are adding value to the stock and that the merger is not good for shareholders.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
CitrusCritter
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Mon Aug 13, 2007 7:15 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 34):
However, it's entirely possible that the stock settles in the $10.50-$11 region, and then I think things become a lot murkier.

Completely agree, but that would be a 33% drop in value.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 34):
which would indicate that some of the increase in stock price over the past 6 months may not be related to the tender offer

I don't think I can agree with that. YX has restated their projections downward several times and hasn't made a sizeable profit since the merger offer was announced. Airline stocks have been falling in general, primarily because of oil prices, to which YX is not immune. YX's stock is being buoyed solely by the tender offer and the institutional buying. Without the tender offer ever having been made, I can not imagine it being higher than the $10 range.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Mon Aug 13, 2007 7:23 am

Quoting CitrusCritter (Reply 35):
Completely agree, but that would be a 33% drop in value.

Sure, but what is the value to shareholders of the merger? What if AAI is trading at $7 when they receive their AAI shares? Suddenly it becomes harder to assert that the tender offer was more valuable than a standalone MEH.

Quoting CitrusCritter (Reply 35):
YX has restated their projections downward several times and hasn't made a sizeable profit since the merger offer was announced.

Their most recent profit would have been lovely had they not had to take charges related to defending against AAI.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
SkyexRamper
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Mon Aug 13, 2007 8:34 am

Quoting JustPlaneNutz (Reply 31):
I don't really know what under balling a company means,

Low ball

Under cut

Self yourself short


....etc...
Good Luck to all Skyway Pilots! It's been great working with you!
 
sideflare75
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:43 am

I guess we know the answer to the original question now.
 
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mke717spotter
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:50 am

Indeed, I'm gonna go crack open a root beer to celebrate!  Cool
Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
 
CitrusCritter
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Mon Aug 13, 2007 11:53 am

Quoting Mke717spotter (Reply 39):

I wouldn't do that too quick. You don't know how much control NW may have over YX. At any rate, I think a mod can lock this thread so that everything goes into the new one, eh?
 
SkyexRamper
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RE: Will AirTran Extend The YX Offer?

Mon Aug 13, 2007 8:23 pm

Pending deal with P.E firm TPG.
Good Luck to all Skyway Pilots! It's been great working with you!