ltbewr
Posts: 12361
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:43 am

As some of you know from the news, Hurricane Dean looks like it is headed for the Caribbean in the next few days, and perhaps in the next day or 2, hitting some of the Caribbean islands including Puerto Rico, Cuba then heading into the Gulf of Mexico, making landfall from the Mexico's Yucatan to Florida as up to a Class 5 hurricane in the early to middle of next week. It looks like it could be pretty bad to any land in it's way.
Have any airlines made any decisions today to prepare for this storm, including adding flights to get tourists out of the area, move aircraft, suspend flights?
 
PlaneGuy27
Posts: 289
Joined: Sat Jan 24, 2004 12:38 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 3:45 am

Press Release Source: Delta Air Lines, Inc.


Delta Takes Steps to Assist Customers as Hurricane Dean Approaches Caribbean
Thursday August 16, 2:39 pm ET


ATLANTA, Aug. 16, 2007 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) -- Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL - News) customers booked on flights to or from select cities in the Caribbean may make adjustments to travel schedules in preparation for Hurricane Dean, which is expected to affect the region during the next several days.
Customers who purchased tickets by August 15, 2007, and are scheduled to travel August 16, 2007, to August 22, 2007, to, from or through the following cities on Delta, Delta Connection(r) or Delta-coded flights, may make a one-time change without penalty or additional fees if tickets are changed by August 22, 2007. Travel must begin on or before August 22, 2007.

Impacted cities include the following (note: cities may change):



-- Antigua
-- Barbados
-- Martinique
-- Grand Cayman
-- Kingston, Jamaica
-- Montego Bay, Jamaica
-- Guadeloupe
-- Punta Cana
-- Santo Domingo
-- Santiago, Dominican Republic
-- St. Maarten
-- St. Lucia

Changes to origin and destination may result in a fare increase. Any fare difference between the original ticket and the new ticket will be collected at the time of rebooking. Customers whose travel plans are affected by cancellations may request refunds or reaccommodation on alternate flights without fee or penalty.

Additional cities may be impacted by this weather system and customers are encouraged to visit delta.com/travelupdates for the quickest and most up to date information. Customers may also call 1-800-325-1999 for flight information.

The Delta Air Lines, Inc. logo is available at http://www.primenewswire.com/newsroom/prs/?pkgid=1825



Contact:
Delta Air Lines
Corporate Communications
404-715-2554


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Delta Air Lines, Inc.
 
toltommy
Posts: 2465
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RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:30 am

Wow, sucks for CUN......
 
cloudyapple
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RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:39 am

Affect is the verb, effect is the noun. You may want to change your title.
A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
 
MSYtristar
Posts: 7543
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:52 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 4:56 am

Well I have a friend who lives in SXM and I know she's about ready to high tail to it higher ground....
 
Indy
Posts: 3898
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 5:01 am

Dean doesn't look good. Right now it looks like there is a good chance that the storm splits the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane. The difference between this storm and Katrina, Rita and Wilma is that Dean would enter a body of water completely undisturbed by tropical systems. The water is very warm and will support a cat 5 storm. Right now I'd give it a 30% chance that the storm hits somewhere between Galveston and Mobile. That could put MSY or IAH in the line of fire.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
n844aa
Posts: 1266
Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2003 10:38 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 5:04 am

I'm supposed to go to Jamaica in the next few days. Should I cancel this trip? It would be a shame, but it would be better to figure that out now rather than later.
New airplanes, new employees, low fares, all touchy-feely ... all of them are losers. -Gordon Bethune
 
aajfksjubklyn
Posts: 458
Joined: Wed Jul 25, 2007 10:46 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 5:07 am

AA has the same policy going too, take AAdvantage now before everyone clogs the phones!
 
Indy
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Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 5:10 am

Quoting N844AA (Reply 6):
I'm supposed to go to Jamaica in the next few days. Should I cancel this trip? It would be a shame, but it would be better to figure that out now rather than later.

Want my honest opinion? Don't go. They are darn near in the bullseye right now. Only question is whether the storm goes just south of the island or whether the eye goes right over it. The odds of them taking a very hard hit right now are too great. I'd consult the airline on that though.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
n844aa
Posts: 1266
Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2003 10:38 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 5:45 am

Quoting Indy (Reply 8):
Want my honest opinion? Don't go. They are darn near in the bullseye right now. Only question is whether the storm goes just south of the island or whether the eye goes right over it. The odds of them taking a very hard hit right now are too great. I'd consult the airline on that though.

Thanks, I appreciate that. If I call up CO, can I expect helpful advice? Or is it going to be "Well, you have the option to change without the fee if you want"? Because I wouldn't expect more than the latter, for a variety of reasons.
New airplanes, new employees, low fares, all touchy-feely ... all of them are losers. -Gordon Bethune
 
Indy
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Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 5:53 am

What I might ask is what their hurricane policy is. Maybe call the place you will be staying at as well. Find out what your window of opportunity is to change your reservation whether it be a date change or a cancellation. I think you'll know shortly whether that storm is going to hit the island or not. BTW I believe it is up to 100mph sustained now.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
chumley
Posts: 65
Joined: Wed Jul 18, 2007 2:39 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 5:57 am



Quoting N844AA (Reply 6):
I'm supposed to go to Jamaica in the next few days. Should I cancel this trip? It would be a shame, but it would be better to figure that out now rather than later.

Check The Weather Channel or the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center regularly. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Doesn't look like a great idea right now.

 
Indy
Posts: 3898
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:01 am

Check this...

http://www.climatepatrol.com/forum/33/2815/pg1/index.php#pid10891

Right now it looks like Jamaica will be in the absolute worst part of the storm. It will be on the right side of the eye. We'll have regular updates on this. I'd like to tell you that there is a good chance that Deal will miss the island but that just isn't the case.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
n844aa
Posts: 1266
Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2003 10:38 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:10 am

Yup, thanks guys. I appreciate the help here. The hotel will let us cancel, and MBJ is definitely on CO's list of affected airports. I think we're going to go ahead and call it off.

Right now I'm trying to see if I can find a decent last-minute deal to an unaffected tropical destination, but not surprisingly, there's not much out there. Too bad, it would have been fun.
New airplanes, new employees, low fares, all touchy-feely ... all of them are losers. -Gordon Bethune
 
Indy
Posts: 3898
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:19 am

What about the Bahamas?
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
yellowtail
Posts: 3709
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RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:29 am

Guys..if you want REAL weather info go to www.weatherunderground.com/tropical.....don't waste your time at the USA centric Weather Channel.

I suspect BZE, CUN, MID and CZM will be added to the lists soon.. Everyone already starting to prepare here...me ...I am taking out my Shutters on Saturday.....hope i don't need them.

AA and CO already seem to be preparing here.....last time CO flew exta flights..even a DC10 to get everyone out.

While I feel for all my Caribbean and Mexcian brothers...really and truly the last thing BZE needs right now is a hit....we already have the politicians  Big grin
When in doubt, hold on to your altitude. No-one has ever collided with the sky.
 
pitops
Posts: 470
Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 3:22 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:38 am

Quoting Indy (Reply 5):
Dean doesn't look good. Right now it looks like there is a good chance that the storm splits the Yucatan peninsula and Cuba and enters the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane. The difference between this storm and Katrina, Rita and Wilma is that Dean would enter a body of water completely undisturbed by tropical systems. The water is very warm and will support a cat 5 storm. Right now I'd give it a 30% chance that the storm hits somewhere between Galveston and Mobile. That could put MSY or IAH in the line of fire.

Looking at it now, I would say anywhere from New Orleans to Texas. I doubt Florida will have to deal with this unless we see a real steering current which I don't see happening.

Quoting Indy (Reply 10):
BTW I believe it is up to 100mph sustained now.

Correct. NHC just upgraded it to a Category 2.

Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 15):
Guys..if you want REAL weather info go to www.weatherunderground.com/tropical.....don't waste your time at the USA centric Weather Channel.

I always get my info from the National Hurricane Center. Screw the Weather Channel. Wunderground is one of the fastest to update info.
Ground Ops, Southwest Airlines, CMH
 
Indy
Posts: 3898
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:39 am

Quoting PITops (Reply 16):
Screw the Weather Channel. Wunderground is one of the fastest to update info.

Oh so true. The TWC has become a machine of politics. I know I can get good info from Wunderground. I think of them as the weather site for the more knowledgeable user.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
pitops
Posts: 470
Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 3:22 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 7:23 am

Quoting Indy (Reply 17):
Oh so true. The TWC has become a machine of politics. I know I can get good info from Wunderground. I think of them as the weather site for the more knowledgeable user.

Exactly. Or you can use the National Weather Service.
Ground Ops, Southwest Airlines, CMH
 
Indy
Posts: 3898
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 7:29 am

Quoting PITops (Reply 18):
Exactly. Or you can use the National Weather Service.

Oh god don't get me started on the NWS. Lets just say I'm starting to put them in the same category as The Weather Channel.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
Sketty222
Posts: 904
Joined: Sat Mar 04, 2006 6:36 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 7:42 am

The best website I know of is www.wunderground.com
It gives up to date info on all tropical storms/ hurricanes and also gives pilot weather reports

I work for BA Holidays and from what I got told at work today, BGI, UVF, KIN, MBJ and GCM are going to be the worst hit
Lets hope that the hurricane doesnt do too much damage

Lee
There's flying and then there's flying
 
redngold
Posts: 6673
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2000 12:26 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 7:52 am

Quoting Indy (Reply 14):
What about the Bahamas?

This storm is well south of the Bahamas latitude, and is being steered by a strong HIGH pressure system that will keep it on a westerly course for several more days.

Also at high risk are Haiti and the Cayman Islands (I see Delta mentioned Grand Cayman.) Cozumel and Cancun could be in the crosshairs after that.

Jeff Masters' Tropical Weather Blog at Wunderground.com is very well written and obviously well-informed.
Up, up and away!
 
User avatar
SLCUT2777
Posts: 3407
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2006 12:17 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 7:55 am

Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 15):
I suspect BZE, CUN, MID and CZM will be added to the lists soon.. Everyone already starting to prepare here...me ...I am taking out my Shutters on Saturday.....hope i don't need them.

 checkmark  Hopefully you won't need them as well. The Atlantic has been so quiet this year thus far, and I guess they come in pairs. Now the Cape Verde season is well underway, and the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico will be under fire through mid-October. People in MIA, FLL, PBI, RSW as well as TPA should also take note since projected track errors can vary greatly.

Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 15):
AA and CO already seem to be preparing here.....last time CO flew exta flights..even a DC10 to get everyone out.

DL has this one on their home page, yet I go to the CO and AA sites and don't see such.
DELTA Air Lines; The Only Way To Fly from Salt Lake City; Let the Western Heritage always be with Delta!
 
Indy
Posts: 3898
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 7:55 am

Quoting Redngold (Reply 21):
Jeff Masters' Tropical Weather Blog at Wunderground.com is very well written and obviously well-informed.

What? You don't want to take advice from "Dr" Heidi Cullen from The Weather Channel?  Smile
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
mkorpal
Posts: 73
Joined: Wed Aug 17, 2005 6:47 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 7:59 am

This one looks bad. At least we can see it coming. But those along the ocean in Texas might want to look into a vacation in the mountains or something like that. If I were there, I would already be making reservations.
 
redngold
Posts: 6673
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2000 12:26 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 8:00 am

Quoting Indy (Reply 23):
What? You don't want to take advice from "Dr" Heidi Cullen from The Weather Channel?

Nor do I trust AccuWeather... I trust the NWS and my own impressions of the radar and steering factors (although I am not an expert.)
Up, up and away!
 
Indy
Posts: 3898
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 8:11 am

Ah... AccuWeather. Probably my least favorite site when it comes to information. As far as the NWS goes they are ok if you want to interpret the data on your own. I take all reports they assemble including watches/warnings with a serious grain of salt.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
chumley
Posts: 65
Joined: Wed Jul 18, 2007 2:39 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 8:30 am

There's a weather blog I visit that consolidates a lot of the various information and models available. I find it to be a good supplemental resource for Atlantic hurricane information. http://www.thestormtrack.com/
 
pitops
Posts: 470
Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 3:22 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 9:52 am

Everyone should check out www.storm2k.org . It is a very good amateur website with a really nice forum.
Ground Ops, Southwest Airlines, CMH
 
DernierVirage
Posts: 222
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RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Fri Aug 17, 2007 10:03 am

The latest forecast is that Hurricane Dean will hit Martinique at around 1 a.m. Friday morning. Both Martinique and Guadeloupe are on "red alert" for force 2 hurricane. That said, the current path of Dean seems to continue directly west, so not heading directly towards Guadeloupe.

AF has delayed its flight to Fort de France tomorrow by 7 hours, I guess anticipating that a late evening arrival will be possible.. As for Guadeloupe, I heard that the airport at PTP is now closed, but the AF website shows tomorrow's flights as normal !

I am in SBH, and for the moment we and also SXM seem to be away from the worst. I only hope that Martinique will not be too badly hit.
 
ltbewr
Posts: 12361
Joined: Thu Jan 29, 2004 1:24 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:57 am

Jamica seems to be in a direct path for a strong class 3 or a lower class 4 hurricane, along with the Cayman Islands. Per the latest (Fri. Aug. 17th 11 am EST) US Hurricane Center report, the center of the storm may go throught the Yuctan Channel, but putting Cancun at considerable damage. Still a little unsure of where Erin will go after the Yuctan, but I would beware of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas (like Corpus Christie). I would suggest not flying going to those areas and if in the potential target area, get out ASAP. I also suspect that most flights to those areas will be cancelled to there for several days. Sadly, Cancun could be badly hurt again just a few years from another major hurricane.
 
Indy
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Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:58 am

Dean is rapidly strengthening and is a category 3 hurricane and will likely reach category 4 strength by midnight. Look here for the latest Dvorak image.

http://www.climatepatrol.com/forum/33/2815/pg2/index.php#pid10952

It shows Dean forming that donut around the eye. Things are going to get much worse as this storm completes that organization. There in my opinion is nothing to stop it from reaching category 5 strength. The question is whether it manages that before hitting Jamaica.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
AEROFAN
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RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 4:16 am

Barbados was not affected. Anyone who wants a tropical isle to visit can consider this
 
AEROFAN
Posts: 1406
Joined: Wed Aug 04, 2004 9:47 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 4:21 am

Barbados was not affected. Anyone who wants a tropical isle to visit can consider this
 
OB1504
Posts: 2985
Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2004 5:10 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 4:37 am

Visible
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

Infrared
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Water Vapor
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

At the rate Dean is going, he may end up stronger than Wilma at her peak.
 
Indy
Posts: 3898
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 4:49 am

The GFDL model has shifted the track dramatically to the right (east). We'll see if the other models shift as well or whether this run was just a bad run and the track shifts back left.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
Indy
Posts: 3898
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 8:49 am

New advisory coming out. It isn't pretty. The pressure is rapidly dropping. More later.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
Indy
Posts: 3898
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 9:18 am

Dean is now a category storm with 135mph winds. Central pressure has rapidly deepened to 946 mb. Further strengthening is likely. I hope those who can get out of Jamaica. This will be as bad if not worse than Gilbert for the island.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
B777ER
Posts: 431
Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2004 3:35 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 9:55 am

Quoting Indy (Reply 35):
The GFDL model has shifted the track dramatically to the right (east). We'll see if the other models shift as well or whether this run was just a bad run and the track shifts back left.

Yes, lets hope..here is the model run....can you say, Katrina II. Shows it as a CAT 5 landfall.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...704_v5d.html?extraprod=v5d#a_topad
 
stxbohn
Posts: 84
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2007 1:44 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:54 pm

Well, here on STX, we've had wind, a very small squall line around 12:45 this afternoon and I still have power, DISH, and internet. I was expecting more by this point, figure it's waiting to start raining when I go to bed and it will be wet and windy tomorrow.

Dean got really strong today. He's already a Cat 4 - 145 sustained and 937mb pressure according to NHC's 11:00 pm update. Warm water will only make it worse for Jamaica/Caymon/Yucatan Penninsula. Cat 5 seems quite imminent. A-netters in these places, get out or hole up good.

What sucks is I'm planning on being in H-town next Wednesday-Saturday. Dean's headed right for the gulf coast according to the models now. We'll see how fast he moves, looks like I'll get to double dip.

Be safe.


Brooks
"Thank you for flying City Airlines. We know you have a choice in airlines, and it looks like you made the wrong one."
 
n844aa
Posts: 1266
Joined: Fri Jul 18, 2003 10:38 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 1:50 pm

Quoting Indy (Reply 37):
Dean is now a category storm with 135mph winds. Central pressure has rapidly deepened to 946 mb. Further strengthening is likely. I hope those who can get out of Jamaica. This will be as bad if not worse than Gilbert for the island.

Hey Indy, I don't want to be hyperbolic here, but seriously, thank you so much for your advice a few posts ago. The mainstream weather sources I had been checking said nothing about how serious this storm was looking to be in Jamaica this week. I would have been down there before I had had any idea of how strong this thing actually was. I don't know if you saved my and my wife's lives or what (at the very least, you prevented a disastrous vacation), but thanks again.

I'm sorry for everyone who's in this storm's path. I hope they (or you, if any of you are reading) are able to get someplace safe. Good luck to all of our friends in the Caribbean and around the Gulf.
New airplanes, new employees, low fares, all touchy-feely ... all of them are losers. -Gordon Bethune
 
Indy
Posts: 3898
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:16 pm

Glad to help. You would have been down there at the absolute wrong time. My wife is going on a cruise with her aunt in mid September and I had to tell her that 2 or 3 of her stops are getting hit by this storm. Cayman Islands being #1 on the list. Cozumel and Cancun being the next possible targets.

Be happy you are staying home. I remember the stories that came out of Cancun after Wilma where people were stranded for some time.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
AirTranTUS
Posts: 3313
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2005 9:12 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 2:48 pm

Quoting Indy (Reply 19):
Oh god don't get me started on the NWS. Lets just say I'm starting to put them in the same category as The Weather Channel.

The NWS is great when it comes to Tucson weather. Very good information and easy to use. I can easily access weather reports and see the weather readings taken at TUS every hour.

I like TWC's raar map that shows houses and streets, but it does not update as often as the NWS map. The TWC site is also confusing to get through sometimes. Most certainly my least favorite.

Wunderground is great, too. Lots of information.

And AccuWeather is what ForecastFox uses, and I like having the weather at the bottom of my browser.
I love ASO!
 
Indy
Posts: 3898
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:37 pm

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:11 pm

My objection with the local NWS is the number of false alarms we had last year. It was so bad the local press got on them about it. Severe thunderstorm warnings for rain shows with maybe 20mph winds and a little bit of lightning. AKA a normal thunderstorm. It happened many times.

On the issue of Dean. He is up to 150mph sustained winds. This will be the worst ever storm to hit Jamaica.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
tcfc424
Posts: 444
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2003 11:56 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:14 pm

I use the NHC. They have tools that you have to look for, but most of us Plane guys have an inherent interest in weather. I like looking at their discussion and then look at their imagery. One of their imagery products allows you to view what you are interested in...winds, pressure, etc

NHC, if anything, is slow to make their determinations. They also explain why they deviate (if they deviate.)

Mike S in AUS

By the way, friends of mine wonder why a Cat 5 could be a bad thing for AUS...we are 236 mi. from the coast...a big hurrican can send some serious winds that far without even making landfall!

Do airlines have teams they send out in these situations?
 
OB1504
Posts: 2985
Joined: Tue Jul 27, 2004 5:10 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:15 pm

Quoting Indy (Reply 43):
My objection with the local NWS is the number of false alarms we had last year. It was so bad the local press got on them about it. Severe thunderstorm warnings for rain shows with maybe 20mph winds and a little bit of lightning. AKA a normal thunderstorm. It happened many times.

Better safe than sorry, I suppose. If there had been a severe thunderstorm and the NWS didn't issue a warning, I bet that the local press would be on them about it, too.

Quoting Forecaster Beven, National Hurricane Center:
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR DEAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY
WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.7 WEST OR ABOUT 700 MILES...
1125 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 240 MILES...
390 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER
TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...
240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 930
MB...27.46 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...15.0 N...66.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/180548.shtml

Pressure continues to fall, now at 930 mb, with winds at 150 MPH (chances are he'll be a Cat 5 by morning).

Isn't Dean rapidly approaching the same waters where Wilma had her record-breaking explosive deepening two years ago?
 
2travel2know
Posts: 2236
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2005 7:05 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 4:21 pm

Quoting Yellowtail (Reply 15):
I suspect BZE, CUN, MID and CZM will be added to the lists soon.. Everyone already starting to prepare here...me ...I am taking out my Shutters on Saturday.....hope i don't need them.

For extra safety, I would add LCE, RTB and SAP to that list. Honduras isn't looking for another Mitch.

Word from GCM, still many passengers can't get out of the island. Now looking to charter aircrafts to take them to Centralamerica.
I don't work for COPA Airlines!
 
tcfc424
Posts: 444
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2003 11:56 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sun Aug 19, 2007 2:58 am

So are ops in CUN going crazy now? Are airlines sending relief flights or larger aircraft?
 
ABQopsHP
Posts: 461
Joined: Wed May 24, 2006 10:47 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sun Aug 19, 2007 3:08 am

Here in CRP, Dean is still 4/5 days away. However! We got an email overnight from our manager asking us to advise him who of us were planning to evacuate. I have to work those days, but Im guessing we will get our last flights out weds evening back to IAH and AUS, then close up till it blows over and reopen on friday. Im not sure what we will do with the ground equipment just yet, since our baggage make-up area is only big enough for 1 cart. Same goes for AA,DL and WNs bagrooms. T.S. Erin was a non event here earlier this week, even tho it went ashore just 25 miles north.

JD

PS. Should Dean become at CAT 4 or 5, there is no doubt that a good many will evacuate.

[Edited 2007-08-18 20:12:46]
A line is evidence that other people exist.
 
osiris30
Posts: 2310
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2006 10:16 am

RE: Hurricane Dean Affects?

Sun Aug 19, 2007 3:12 am

Quoting ABQopsHP (Reply 48):
Here in CRP, Dean is still 4/5 days away. However! We got an email overnight from our manager asking us to advise him who of us were planning to evacuate. I have to work those days, but Im guessing we will get our last flights out weds evening back to IAH and AUS, then close up till it blows over and reopen on friday. Im not sure what we will do with the ground equipment just yet, since our baggage make-up area is only big enough for 1 cart. Same goes for AA,DL and WNs bagrooms. T.S. Erin was a non event here earlier this week, even tho it went ashore just 25 miles north.

You guys in CRP need to keep your eyes on this one big time.. I know what the official NHC track says.. I also know what the trust worthy models (as far as this storm goes) are/have been forecasting. At last I checked one of them was right onto CRP  Sad (and missing land and heading through the channel into the Gulf as well, to make matter worse).

Please just keep a very very close watch on this one.. a baggage cart is nothing compared to a human life.
I don't care what you think of my opinion. It's my opinion, so have a nice day :)