FWAERJ
Topic Author
Posts: 2600
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2006 1:23 am

JetBlue At FWA?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 9:03 am

You aren't going to believe this...

As I was getting off an NW Airlink (Pinnacle/9E) flight from DTW at FWA yesterday, we had to exit from airstairs at Gate 4 instead of the normal jetway at Gate 5. While grabbing my bag from the valet claim check, I overheard a 9E ramp crew conversation. One of the two folks said that JetBlue is coming to FWA, and the other one said "Are you serious?". In response, the other ramper said "Yes, I am serious."

I couldn't hear much else, as I was busy making my way into the terminal building, but is this true? It's no secret that FWA wants service to the NYC area, but B6 to JFK would be a real surprising treat... especially given that I thought that MQ would start FWA-LGA first.
"Did he really need the triple bypass? Or was it the miles?"
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 6185
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

RE: JetBlue At FWA?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 9:30 am

Those rampers were probably reading this very message board.
Don't get your hopes up yet.....if you believe that Pinnacle ramp employees know what B6 is planning.

I find it very hard to believe that B6 would venture into FWA at this point in time, when there are many, many more "low hanging fruit" availalble.
 
toltommy
Posts: 2519
Joined: Tue Dec 09, 2003 9:04 am

RE: JetBlue At FWA?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 9:39 am

It's well known that the most authoritative members of the airline community are $9/hr rampers....

Perhaps they were sitting in their Ops between flights reading all the other FWA threads?

Is has been said ad nauseum in other threads, there are a lot of bigger markets with more potential for any airline to start NYC service of some kind. FWA just doesn't have the potential that many other markets have.

As I've said in other threads, what does FWA have to offer? A little stash of high yield travelers? TOL has a large SCASD grant, and can't attract a carrier. Does FWA have $1 million to dangle out there in order to entice a carrier to come in? If not they are behind TOL in attractiveness, and TOL doesn't seem to able to find a prom date either.

Sorry, I'd never say there's 100% no possibility of FWA-NYC service, but I don't think the chances of it happening are out of the low single digits....
 
FWAERJ
Topic Author
Posts: 2600
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RE: JetBlue At FWA?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 10:11 am

Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 2):
As I've said in other threads, what does FWA have to offer? A little stash of high yield travelers?

They also have the TRIP incentive program. New airlines get 2 years of their landing fees waived, while existing airlines get 1 year of their landing fees waived for adding a new city or 6 months waived if they increase capacity to an existing city (like what MQ did when they boosted ORD and DFW service).

Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 2):
Does FWA have $1 million to dangle out there in order to entice a carrier to come in? If not they are behind TOL in attractiveness, and TOL doesn't seem to able to find a prom date either.

No, but FWA offers extra incentives for certain new major routes on top of the aforementioned TRIP incentives.

Perosnally, I think that FWA is more attractive than TOL for one reason: FWA's leakage can be fixed, while TOL's can't. As has been said many times on a.net, TOL's 85+% leakage is caused by the very close proximity to DTW, as many people in TOL's catchment area can drive to DTW just as fast, if not faster, than they could to TOL. Hence, TOL-area pax are satisfied with flying from DTW.

FWA's (currently) 55% leakage can be fixed... people here would prefer to fly from FWA than from IND, especially given that the drive from downtown Fort Wayne to IND is 2+ hours (you can drive from many parts of Fort Wayne to FWA in less than 20 minutes). The only thing that's stopping people from choosing FWA is the fare differential and the lack of nonstop flights, especially to East Coast cities.

As for the prom date: Could it be that no one wants to date a pig? Dave Young from FWA told me this funny ancedote once regarding TOL's inability to get lucrative NYC service: "No matter how you dress it up, a pig is still a pig".
"Did he really need the triple bypass? Or was it the miles?"
 
nosedive
Posts: 2176
Joined: Sun May 23, 2004 2:18 pm

RE: JetBlue At FWA?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 10:40 am

Wild rumors for, $100
 
kcrwflyer
Posts: 2550
Joined: Tue May 18, 2004 11:57 am

RE: JetBlue At FWA?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:16 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 3):
As for the prom date: Could it be that no one wants to date a pig? Dave Young from FWA told me this funny ancedote once regarding TOL's inability to get lucrative NYC service: "No matter how you dress it up, a pig is still a pig".

Funny he would make a joke about another airports inability to get NYC.....

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 3):
No, but FWA offers extra incentives for certain new major routes on top of the aforementioned TRIP incentives.

Most airports have some sort of program like that. It doesnt really set FWA apart.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 3):
Perosnally, I think that FWA is more attractive than TOL for one reason: FWA's leakage can be fixed, while TOL's can't. As has been said many times on a.net, TOL's 85+% leakage is caused by the very close proximity to DTW, as many people in TOL's catchment area can drive to DTW just as fast, if not faster, than they could to TOL. Hence, TOL-area pax are satisfied with flying from DTW.

What do you consider TOLs catchment area? How far north does it extend?
 
ouboy79
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Joined: Sun Nov 18, 2001 1:48 pm

RE: JetBlue At FWA?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:28 am

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 3):
Perosnally, I think that FWA is more attractive than TOL for one reason: FWA's leakage can be fixed, while TOL's can't. As has been said many times on a.net, TOL's 85+% leakage is caused by the very close proximity to DTW, as many people in TOL's catchment area can drive to DTW just as fast, if not faster, than they could to TOL. Hence, TOL-area pax are satisfied with flying from DTW.

FWA's (currently) 55% leakage can be fixed... people here would prefer to fly from FWA than from IND, especially given that the drive from downtown Fort Wayne to IND is 2+ hours (you can drive from many parts of Fort Wayne to FWA in less than 20 minutes). The only thing that's stopping people from choosing FWA is the fare differential and the lack of nonstop flights, especially to East Coast cities.

Or you can turn this around to say, TOL has more potential growth than FWA. We've seen it before. AirTran came in and the ATL O&D market went from around 40-50 pax per day to well over 200. TMA came and exposed that there was a TOL-SFB market - G4 came in and replaced them shortly after they went bust because of it.

TOL may be a pig, but it has the pax potential for anyone that has a true interest in developing the market. If you understand the development of the Toledo metro area, the population density of the higher wage earning people is moving west and south of the main city itself. This places those people in an area with a shorter commute to TOL than DTW.

Lastly I would definitely open your eyes past any TOL vs FWA competition you think is going on. The two airports have a history tied together where they have grown and struggled together. The TOL-FWA hop use to be operated by many carriers...Delta, Air Wisconsin, and Chautauqua (USAir Express) to name a few. It may be something to revisit to develop the region as a whole...not a flight between the two, but a cooperation amongst the facilities to attracting air service to the rust belt.
 
rampguy
Posts: 68
Joined: Tue Apr 04, 2006 11:35 pm

RE: JetBlue At FWA?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:51 am

JetBlue has not started IND, which is good for DL as we are the only carrier to operate IND-JFK. However, starting Tuesday, Aug. 21, we are going down to only 1 flight from 2. And I can tell you that I see a lot of bags that are expedited to FWA and SBN, because those pax live near there and have driven down to fly out of IND. Probably because of what was mentioned about the fares. Is it that much cheaper to fly out of IND than FWA, SBN or CVG?
 
FWAERJ
Topic Author
Posts: 2600
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2006 1:23 am

RE: JetBlue At FWA?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 12:20 pm

Quoting RampGuy (Reply 7):
Is it that much cheaper to fly out of IND than FWA, SBN or CVG?

Sometimes, no. Other times, yes.

I've seen fares from FWA that cost no more and in some cases less than comparable IND flights to the same city, both domestically and internationally. (In some cases, it's after the cost of gas for the drive to IND is factored in). On the other hand, I've often seen fares from FWA that are $100-$400 more than comparable fares out of IND.

Let's say that a family of four decides to travel between December 16 and December 22 to Nassau to visit a popular tourist-trap resort that is heavily advertised on TV (you know the one). The FWA-NAS fare is $528 per person on AA, while the IND-NAS fare is $290 on UA (both fares are real fares). By flying out of IND, the family of 4 saves $920 on airfare. Next, we need to factor in the cost of gas for the family's SUV that gets 20 mpg on average. To fill up their 20-gallon tank at $2.80/gallon would cost $56. One tank would get them to IND and back. After the cost of gas is figured in, the family of four would still save $856 by flying from IND. (You'll need that money for the expensive food there.)

On the other hand, let's say that same family of four decides to go to Las Vegas instead between December 2nd and December 9th. The FWA-LAS nonstop fare on G4 is $129 each way, for a total of $248 round-trip per person. An IND-LAS nonstop on NW costs $384 per person. By flying out of FWA, the family saves $544. But wait! Factor in the $56 tank of gas to IND and the $12 checked bags fee on G4 (for 4 bags), and FWA is still ahead by $504 in savings. After all, you're going to need that $504 in Vegas, baby.

The moral of the story: Fares do vary widely between airports. It's best to check multiple airports before you travel.

[Edited 2007-08-18 05:31:19]
"Did he really need the triple bypass? Or was it the miles?"
 
Tan Flyr
Posts: 1579
Joined: Sat Aug 19, 2000 11:07 pm

RE: JetBlue At FWA?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 1:42 pm

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 8):
Sometimes, no. Other times, yes.

Boy, ain't that the truth. As a former resident of both cities I feel a certain warmth for both. On a trip next month to visit family & friends in FWA, I am flying into IND as it was enough cheaper to cover the weekend car rental & gas. I'll also have dinner with an old friend that evening in IND so I am getting an extra "benefit"if you will. But most times I do fly into FWA (Baer Field as we used to call it!) additionally, from FAT is was an easier connection.

Talking about old tag or round about flights using TOL & FWA, UA used to do the DEN thing at one time as a TOL-FWA-DEN (727-222A) routing, and as I recall DL did a TOL-FWA-ATL with 727's also before dropping mainline.

All in all though, time is money no matter where you are..if you are saving 200.00 and it only involves and extra 4 hrs, well then you have put 50.00 per hour on your time. However, if you are saving 200.00 and have an 8 hr round trip to say LAX (by car from FAT) then you only value your time at 20.00. Mine is worth more than 20.00.

I digressed..Perhaps someday B^ can offer a couple of r/t's per day with e190's on a FWA-TOL-JFK routing (return JFK-FWA-TOL) and make the best of both worlds.Every one has a "nonstop"!!
 
skyrat
Posts: 81
Joined: Fri Mar 16, 2007 4:28 am

RE: JetBlue At FWA?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:10 pm

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 3):
No, but FWA offers extra incentives for certain new major routes on top of the aforementioned TRIP incentives.

The airlines are looking for Revenue Guarantees. Thats how RFD got DEN service. FWA's TRIP incentives aren't all that great when other airports are dangling money in front of the airlines.

If any airline is coming to FWA, it's F9 with E170's. Thats the only airline that would make since in FWA. Just look at the shoe they have in the airport.
flown:146,a319,a320,717,722,733,735,738,744,752,763,772,crj2,crj7,crj9,dc9,dc10,e135,e145,e170,e175,frj,md80
 
toltommy
Posts: 2519
Joined: Tue Dec 09, 2003 9:04 am

RE: JetBlue At FWA?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 3:20 pm

If I'm not mistaken TOL is waiving fees for new flights as well...... plus SCASD money for NYC, plus the potential to draw traffic south from DTW....
 
flyinryan99
Posts: 1432
Joined: Sat Feb 17, 2001 6:54 am

RE: JetBlue At FWA?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:09 pm

The reality of FWA-JFK on B6 right now just isn't there right now, especially with real delay problems in NYC right now. I do think doing the JFK-XXX-FWA and return once a day along with 2 other nonstop flights would work (just what Delta had done until they pulled out).

Quoting TOLtommy (Reply 11):
If I'm not mistaken TOL is waiving fees for new flights as well...... plus SCASD money for NYC, plus the potential to draw traffic south from DTW....

They are. I was told there is a new incentive program in place but no details were given and nothing has been made public. The one thing the TRIP incentives have that TOL doesn't - a county tax base to fund everything.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 6185
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

RE: JetBlue At FWA?

Sat Aug 18, 2007 11:10 pm

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 3):
FWA's (currently) 55% leakage can be fixed... people here would prefer to fly from FWA than from IND, especially given that the drive from downtown Fort Wayne to IND is 2+ hours (you can drive from many parts of Fort Wayne to FWA in less than 20 minutes). The only thing that's stopping people from choosing FWA is the fare differential and the lack of nonstop flights, especially to East Coast cities.

I would venture to say that 55% actually isn't too bad for FWA all considering, any airport of their size is always going to have some amount of leakage from the low fare / deal seeking crowd. Some people are always going to drive to IND, ORD, or MDW and a lot of that is a function of the airline pricing, not always just the lack of nonstop service.

I agree, the drive from FWA to IND is long. I couldn't stand doing it, unless it was for a sustainsal amount of money.

Regardless of the validity of what you overheard B6 coming to FWA in the near future just doesn't make sense. In the past 6 months they have essentially gone into a no-growth mode and trying to clean up a lot of their internal operations & processes, change of leadership at the top, and re-evaluated their fleet needs, and performed a top-to-bottom review of their route network. Right now they are being very, very, very conservative - something we haven't seen out of them since they started. When they open up any new stations now, they going to be looking for safe bets - markets that they know will perform without a whole lot of work or time to develop. FWA right now would be a big wild card as its not a sure-bet market for them. Regardless of the incentives out there, its a market that could take a while to develop. Its not a market they absolutely need to enter right now for competitive reasons either. With the number of potential markets they could go to, particularly markets where they would need to put less effort into developing, FWA just doesn't seem to make sense now.

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