jasp25
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 6:44 am

China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 8:47 am

Here's the detailed link:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20297896/

-Jasp
-peace and chicken grease!
 
ikramerica
Posts: 14131
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 8:57 am

What does this mean for the 450 737s and A320s on order?

The article talks about how pax numbers have increased, but only talks about cutting flights. Does this mean they will switch to larger jets? if so, this won't cut pax numbers, so why talk about how pax numbers have increased 20% when the real concern is too many flights scheduled per hour (like JFK).
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
TKV
Posts: 368
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:59 pm

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:00 am

The same thread was filed 4 days ago

Pls delete one of them

[Edited 2007-08-20 02:07:35]

[Edited 2007-08-20 02:15:50]
 
jasp25
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 6:44 am

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:05 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
Does this mean they will switch to larger jets?

Quite possibly they will do that.
-peace and chicken grease!
 
TKV
Posts: 368
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:59 pm

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 10:25 am

Quoting TKV (Reply 2):
The same thread was filed 4 days ago [/quote]
----
As my similar thread 4 days ago was not replied, I assume it will be deleted., I will continue to post here.

[quote=Jasp25,reply=3]Does this mean they will switch to larger jets?
Quite possibly they will do that.

I think that the reference to pax no only was included to visualize the grow problem.

This is particularly a problem given the increase of flights mid next year due to the Olympic Games, which will increase the number of international flights, which of course will not be restricted !

Of course, the pax No. at China-intern flights will increase also, as the games are nearly all in Beijing and huge number of visitors will come in from other cities. Now, the announced measures would mean less capacity for more pax. And to divert larger planes from international Chinese routes will be obviously impossible.

If we assume that the Chinese Authorities will maintain the local flight reduction during the games, this would be a real problem. But knowing how things are in China, I would not bet this would happen, safety has, as the news of the last weeks show, not the same priority there as in the West !!

But, as it is probable the measures will be implemented outside the Olympic time frame, it is possible that this will push up twin aisle frames. But as the problem is nearly immediate, orders for new aircraft
will come in far too late, so I could imagine urgent purchases or leases of discarded B767, B742-3 (possibly -4). A330, (possibly A300) or even older aircrafts.

TKV

[Edited 2007-08-20 03:32:08]

[Edited 2007-08-20 03:34:00]

[Edited 2007-08-20 03:36:32]
 
Ozair
Posts: 1514
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 12:05 pm

Quoting TKV (Reply 4):
But, as it is probable the measures will be implemented outside the Olympic time frame, it is possible that this will push up twin aisle frames. But as the problem is nearly immediate, orders for new aircraft
will come in far too late

Too late to solve the current situation but certainly brightens the prospects of the B783!
 
jasp25
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 6:44 am

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 12:24 pm

The problem is that the growth of air travellers have way surpassed the number of safety personnel. Chinese authorities could have seen this problem years ago and prepared themselves especially for the inllux of foreign tourists for the olympics. But yes, I can see airlines decreasing their frequencies by utilizing bigger jets to service their current routes instead of using multiple smaller aircraft.

-Jasp
-peace and chicken grease!
 
TKV
Posts: 368
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:59 pm

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 12:33 pm

Quoting Ozair (Reply 5):
Too late to solve the current situation but certainly brightens the prospects of the B783

?img border=0 src="http://www.airliners.net/discussions/graphics/smilies/checkmark.gif" width="15" height="15" border=0>??img border=0 src="http://www.airliners.net/discussions/graphics/smilies/checkmark.gif" width="15" height="15" border=0>?.Excellent remark. A country with the both large distances and cities as China, with the railroad alternative antiquated and slow, seems nearly ideal for the B783, even before the here discussed flight reduction issue arose ! And the same aircraft is adequated for internationa flights to Japan, and many other sorrounding countries.

TKV

[Edited 2007-08-20 05:34:35]

[Edited 2007-08-20 05:37:03]
 
Carpethead
Posts: 2579
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2004 8:15 pm

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 12:45 pm

As I wrote in another thread, that (probably) got deleted.
CAAC, the same authority that ordered a gaggle of Airbus & Boeing narrowbodies, is at the root cause of the problem.
I suppose an order for 767, 777, A330 could be eminent to solve short-term capacity issues.
 
TKV
Posts: 368
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RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 12:49 pm

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 8):
CAAC, the same authority that ordered a gaggle of Airbus & Boeing narrowbodies

Do you mean the here announced measures or something before that ?? Thanks in advance for answer !

TKV
 
Fly2CHC
Posts: 443
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2005 10:35 pm

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 2:17 pm

Do they mean no new international carrier will be able to start services to PEK, or that no new Chinese carrier can be formed?
 
jasp25
Posts: 377
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 6:44 am

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 2:25 pm

Quoting Fly2CHC (Reply 10):
Do they mean no new international carrier will be able to start services to PEK, or that no new Chinese carrier can be formed?

That's how the newsbyte sounds to me.. that is almost a setback in the growing aviation industry but yet again, it's a good thing as that is a safety concern that the Chinese authority is giving attention to.

-Jasp
-peace and chicken grease!
 
TKV
Posts: 368
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:59 pm

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 3:28 pm

Quoting Jasp25 (Reply 11):
Do they mean no new international carrier will be able to start services to PEK, or that no new Chinese carrier can be formed?

I am quite sure that this is not the case for the international carriers. These flight have no Chinese personnel (of course, need the attention of the ground personnel) and are all LA and VLA. . As that no new Chinese carriers can be formed, this is expressly stated, but presently there are more than enough !!

TKV
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 4664
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 4:00 pm

Quoting TKV (Reply 12):
As that no new Chinese carriers can be formed, this is expressly stated, but presently there are more than enough !!

Well so much for Virgin China.
It is what it is...
 
anglo2
Posts: 33
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2007 3:48 am

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 5:40 pm

Good decision, there are far too many airlines in the country at the moment. Perhaps other countries with crowded skies will take note of this
 
Carpethead
Posts: 2579
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2004 8:15 pm

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 5:44 pm

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 8):
Do you mean the here announced measures or something before that ?

What I meant was that CAAC should have known that throwing 200+ narrowbodies into Chinese airspace is going to cause congestion. If there is only a fixed number of runway or airway slots, the only way to increase capacity is to utilize larger aircraft.

Hence, look at the example of Japan in the 1970s & 1980s.
In the 1960s, trunk routes were operated by 727 or DC-8-types. Ten/15 years later with minimal increase in frequencies L10s & 747SRs ply those same routes.

While the big three Chinese carriers are finally starting to take A330s in small numbers, 2000-2005 period saw very little widebody growth despite strong growth minus SARS.
 
art
Posts: 2736
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2005 11:46 am

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:55 pm

International Rescue in the form of 748-I's and A380's? And 783's for Domestic Rescue? Or can China upgrade its facilities fast enough to avoid being pushed to use larger aircraft?
 
Ozair
Posts: 1514
Joined: Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:38 am

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 9:00 pm

Quoting Art (Reply 16):
Or can China upgrade its facilities fast enough to avoid being pushed to use larger aircraft?

I think the infrastructure will come, it's China after all where labour is cheap and anything that helps the economy grow is a good investment.

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 15):
Hence, look at the example of Japan in the 1970s & 1980s.
In the 1960s, trunk routes were operated by 727 or DC-8-types. Ten/15 years later with minimal increase in frequencies L10s & 747SRs ply those same routes.

And yet now the infrastructure has caught up we see 767, 777 flights being the norm.
 
TKV
Posts: 368
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:59 pm

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Mon Aug 20, 2007 10:36 pm

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 15):
Hence, look at the example of Japan in the 1970s & 1980s.

Respectfully, and with knowledge of this, I advise not try to compare Japan with China. Other that both are Far-Easterners, they are so similar a Scandinavian to a Sicilian and the airliner's related geographical, social and population related parameters are diametrical opposed.

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 13):
Well so much for Virgin China.

Eve if something like this were formally possibly, it would be suicide for Virgin

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 15):
What I meant was that CAAC should have known that throwing 200+ narrow-bodies into Chinese airspace is going to cause congestion. If there is only a fixed number of runway or airway slots, the only way to increase capacity is to utilize larger aircraft.

To be fair. China has done a lot building airports and related facilities, but the planning was faulty and
many of these were overbuilt in some regions and under-built in other

Quoting Art (Reply 16):
I think the infrastructure will come, it's China after all where labour is cheap and anything that helps the economy grow is a good investment

I am very skeptic here. As other A-netter have stated in past topics, the quality of what they do is very poor if not done under Western, Japanese or Korean strict supervision, and even so, as the examples of
Mattel and the pet-food companies (both billion $ Western companies) show a disturbing tendency.
The main problem is that Chinese think that all tasks are "easy" !!
This apply more so for the training and mentality of personnel, as well to put personnel friendship over ethical and business needs.

The West has chosen to ignore these facts because of the extreme low cost, which probably would not
be so favorable if a thorough supervision and control would exist.

The Japanese a exactly the opposite !!

TKV
 
MCOGVADCA
Posts: 248
Joined: Sat Oct 07, 2006 3:05 pm

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Tue Aug 21, 2007 12:21 am

TKV, Dude we all know that the Chinese don't like to be compared to the Japanese, and in doing such, it usually results in a diatribe about the Nanjing atrocities, but what Carpethead said has no bearing on Chinese culture whatsoever and simply pertains to perceived similarities between the two aviation markets. I dont feel most Chinese would be offended by that, and it would behoove the Chinese to listen to what Carpethead, and others on this board, have to say. Chinese airlines need to use widebodies on routes other than the shenzhen/shanghai/beijing (very obtuse) triangle, and make the transition that Japan did a few decades ago as a result of restricted slots and airports reaching capacity from mostly narrowbodies on domestic flights to predominantly widebodies on trunk routes.
12 months: mdl heh rgn kmg nng sha gmp icn can pvg sfo mco lwc sin dps cdg gva
 
awthompson
Posts: 486
Joined: Sat May 28, 2005 9:59 pm

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Tue Aug 21, 2007 12:24 am

Quoting Jasp25 (Reply 11):
but yet again, it's a good thing as that is a safety concern that the Chinese authority is giving attention to.

I must praise China for working at a strategic level in order to put a peg on safety. This is where safety management should start. This is one advantage of central control which is not so clear in the west.

Quotation from the link;

“In order to ensure safety and bring about the positive, rapid, healthy and orderly development of the industry, the CAAC has decided to carry out an overall adjustment in the number of flights, entry into the aviation industry, and rise in cargo capacity,” the notice said.

China of course has the advantage of observing how disorderly airline growth has been in the west (fortunately not coupled with any real negative affect on safety) and using this knowledge to it's advantage in managing rapid growth in the airline sector.

If this means less flights by larger aircraft, while at the same time not having a detrimental effect on prices and choice, that must be a good thing for China and the world in environmental terms.
 
TKV
Posts: 368
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:59 pm

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Tue Aug 21, 2007 12:28 am

Quoting MCOGVADCA (Reply 19):
TKV, Dude we all know that the Chinese don't like to be compared to the Japanese

Sorry you misunderstood my comments. I was not worrying about the Chinese being offended, but simply stating that the Chinese Market and population are totally different from the Japanese and cannot be compared.
I thought Istated so.

And I am totally open to consider further Carpethead statements !

cordially

TKV

[Edited 2007-08-20 17:30:15]
 
Aither
Posts: 1035
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:43 am

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Tue Aug 21, 2007 6:22 pm

The thing is every small to medium city in China wants to be linked non stop to BJS and these cities can't be served by anything larger than a single aisle aircraft. These cities are growing fast (perharps even faster than coastal cities). Eventually what could be needed is more secondary hubs... basically they have to rethink their domestic network.
On the opposite few routes can sustain widebody aircraft and these routes are huge (BJS-SHA, BJS-HKG, etc.), I even think A330s or 787s will be soon too small for these routes.
Never trust the obvious
 
TKV
Posts: 368
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:59 pm

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Tue Aug 21, 2007 9:49 pm

Quoting Aither (Reply 22):
The thing is every small to medium city in China wants to be linked non stop to BJS and these cities can't be served by anything larger than a single aisle aircraft. These cities are growing fast (perharps even faster than coastal cities). Eventually what could be needed is more secondary

 checkmark 

Quoting Aither (Reply 22):
basically they have to rethink their domestic network.
On the opposite few routes can sustain widebody aircraft and these routes are huge (BJS-SHA, BJS-HKG, etc.), I even think A330s or 787s will be soon too small for these routes.

Even if above is a fact that many routes are not adequate for widebodies, a lot of other, presently served by narrowbodies, are so. Only a few of the latter airports I visited: Guelin, LiYang, Xiamen, Kunming
So there is a ample room for improvement.
Presently, even including unfilled orders, Chinese Airlines have very few large short range aircraft needee
for such tasks. On the upper end of the range some B767 and A330 could be used, but presently on international routes

Factually, the only widebody adequate for Chinese internal and border country service would be the
B787-3, which can carry in 2 class configuration 330 pax or more in one class, which constitutes, as already stated, an extraordinary opportunity for this aircraft. But until such could be delivered, the only
solution, as also already said, would be buy or lease old used aircrafts, as B763s and A333s

On the other side, for traffic between large cities as Beijing-Shanghai old B747 could be used provisionally.

TKV
 
as739x
Posts: 5034
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2003 7:23 am

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Tue Aug 21, 2007 10:17 pm

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 13):

There is no Virgin in China, they have over a billion people!   

Sorry I couldn't help it!

In all seriosness as Carpethead said it right, its the CAAC. How did the goverment not see this coming?

ASSFO

[Edited 2007-08-21 15:17:59]

[Edited 2007-08-21 15:18:22]
"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
 
TKV
Posts: 368
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:59 pm

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Tue Aug 21, 2007 10:32 pm

Quoting AS739X (Reply 24):
In all seriosness as Carpethead said it right, its the CAAC. How did the goverment not see this coming?

The answer to this question is partially in my reply 18.

Industrial planning is certainly not one of the pinnacles of the Chinese Government

TKV
 
astral
Posts: 151
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 3:50 am

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Wed Aug 22, 2007 4:45 am

I must ask many of you to look at two major issues that wasn't discuss here, but are the main reasons why the Chinese Government decided to reduce flight and cap new start-up airlines.
Lack of pilots - It is discussed here many times, and is a FACT that China is running very short of qualify pilots. Foreign pilots are now being hired to fly inside China, but the problem is still here, and in fact is growing. China faces a significant pilot retirement in 2009-11, and it would compound the stressed situation even more. The immediate steps to take are to reduce the number of flights, so as to increase efficiency, and stop the demand of pilots with no new airlines allowed.
Airlines competing for pilots - It is growing to be a major issues among all airlines in China. Pilots are now being offered huge increase in benefits (not necessary in salary as it is controlled by CAAC), by changing to another airline. Such 'Pulls' resulted in traditional carriers loosing experienced captains, and too many junior first officers, putting flight safety in question. There is a very recent court case that MU sue for damages for nearly 10 million yen from a captain that changed to another carrier. In fact there were a number of court cases similar to the MU one settled already, all involving major fines or compensation to the carrier loosing pilots. Airlines in China, especially the three new start-ups are now budgeting such compensation into their plans for growth !!! CAAC's main concern is with safety, and with too many less experienced pilots in command of aircraft, could cause problems. The 'fights' for pilots too would cause Chinese airlines bad relationship, and CAAC has to protect the existing ones which it has a major interest involved. New start-ups would then be of a second importance nature.
Without any growth in flight frequency, airlines can replace narrow bodies with wide bodies to cater for the passenger growth. The newly ordered Boeing and Airbus are being used to replace the older jets such as MD-80/90, B735, B752 etc. Do note China is entering the aircraft leasing business, as Bank of China just purchased Singapore Aircraft Leaseing and has changed name to BOA Aviation. The fleet of old jets in China can now be leased overseas, and be replaced by the new aircrafts.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 14131
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: China To Cut Domestic Flights, Ban New Airlines

Wed Aug 22, 2007 5:30 am

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 15):
If there is only a fixed number of runway or airway slots, the only way to increase capacity is to utilize larger aircraft.

Or to build more airports where needed instead of where the communist government decides they should go.

But the chinese government wants to keep country people out of the cities for stability purposes, and one way to do this is to continue to limit transportation into the cities, and make it expensive. Doing it under the guise of "right sizing" and "safety" is a nice spin trick...  Wink

Quoting Aither (Reply 22):
Eventually what could be needed is more secondary hubs... basically they have to rethink their domestic network.

Build a bunch of LGA or DCA style airports in the major cities, closer in and suited for domestic ops. I know we are not allowed to talk about Japan, but Haneda is another example of a domestic only airport closer in. Much like IAD and DCA, NRT was built as the international relief airport to allow Haneda to be domestic/regional.

Quoting AS739X (Reply 24):
There is no Virgin in China, they have over a billion people!

Anyway... Chinese is a very ornate language, so it would probably come out to translate to "Virtuous Flower Girl Airlines" or something like that.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.

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