NYC777
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Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 4:57 am

Hi all,
Great update from the Flightblogger web site:

http://flightblogger.blogspot.com/20...aces-hurdles-opportunities-on.html

Fair Use Excerpt Follows:

Boeing faces hurdles, opportunities on the road to an on-time 787 entry into service

According to multiple sources inside the 787 program, Boeing has delayed delivery of major structural parts for Dreamliner Two indefinitely as work feverishly continues on preparing Dreamliner One for its first flight this fall.

Put simply, there is a small bottleneck inside of Building 40-26 at the Boeing factory in Everett interfering with deliveries. Two of the four final assembly positions are in use. The first position in the rear of the factory is occupied by the Static Rig (ZY997), the second by Dreamliner One (ZA001).

Dreamliner One continues to undergo extremely extensive structural and systems assembly and is currently jacked up off its landing gear surrounded by scaffolding, making the forward movement to make way for the Static Rig difficult until it returns to pavement.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
IAD787
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 5:33 am

This is not a good situation. The manpower just simply isn't there to build a second aircraft. The pictures really capture how much is left.

One way or another, this plane will fly, be certified and delivered. When specifically, I haven't a clue. I'd say first flight in September/October is just as likely as November or beyond. No one knows the answer to this question and anyone claiming to is full of it unless they're spending quality time with Boeing 787 program managers.

Making an airplane is hard. Whether you're Airbus, Boeing or whatever, making something fly is NOT easy, even if we're 104 years after the fact.

Props to both companies for making something that we can't keep our eyes, ears and minds off of.

Onward,

IAD787

[Edited 2007-08-21 22:34:01]
Former FlightBlogger turned Wall Street Journal Aerospace Beat Reporter
 
IAD787
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 6:54 am

Also, the LCF has been flying around between CHS and PAE on Evergreen Flight Crew training flights all week as EIA5780. Nothing on board.
Former FlightBlogger turned Wall Street Journal Aerospace Beat Reporter
 
AF2323
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 6:54 am

Quoting IAD787 (Reply 2):
Making an airplane is hard. Whether you're Airbus, Boeing or whatever, making something fly is NOT easy, even if we're 104 years after the fact.

Props to both companies for making something that we can't keep our eyes, ears and minds off of.

Exactly.

Now, if the first flight is significantly late (which I don't hope) , I'll be very impressed if they still manage to deliver the plane in May 2008. That will be a very aggressive flight test program (it already was from the beginning). We can be sure that Boeing's workers are giving their best... let's wait and see.
 
geg2rap
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 8:07 am

Quoting AF2323 (Reply 4):
We can be sure that Boeing's workers are giving their best... let's wait and see.

This is something that can be said for both A380 and 787 programs, both are revolutionary for the industry and it's always better to be safe than sorry.
So some delays might are to be expected.
 
IAD787
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 10:35 am

LCF2 is back in Charleston, it was on the ground in Everett for less than 3 hours. The flight number again is for training flights. Anyone know if they are moving fixtures or anything?
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sphealey
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 11:12 am

> Now, if the first flight is significantly late (which I don't hope) , I'll be very impressed if
> they still manage to deliver the plane in May 2008.

What is the definition of "significantly late"? AFAIK Boeing have not publicly announced a date for first flight, which means that we do not know if it is technically late or not. And we also don't know if first flight in on the critical path for EIS or not. As Jon has indicated if it is possible to accelerate the 2nd and 3rd flying ships and then do more of the flight testing in parallel then first flight might not be critical path.

sPh
 
IAD787
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 11:34 am

I think "significantly late" is when airlines start canceling their orders.
Former FlightBlogger turned Wall Street Journal Aerospace Beat Reporter
 
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ER757
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 11:38 am

Quoting IAD787 (Reply 9):
I think "significantly late" is when airlines start canceling their orders.

I don't know about that one...certainly we'd all agree that the A380 is significantly late, yet no one's cancelled an order for the pax version - in fact many have placed add-on orders.
Here's hoping Boeing gets it together on the 787 production schedule and flight test/certification program. They definitely face some hurdles but I wish them the best.
 
Ken777
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 11:59 am

While there is some pressure right now how many 787s can Boeing assemble and add to the test fleet in order to minimize he time for certification? Is it possible for a few of the 787s scheduled for initial customers to be added to the testing? I understand that Boeing is going to have more than a few ready when certification is obtained. If certification is delayed will Boeing continue to produce and its scheduled rate in order to avoid deliveries down the line?
 
Charles79
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 12:45 pm

As a program manager myself, following the development of both the A380 and the 787 has been fascinating to say the least. Of course, my satellite program (being built by an aerospace company that shall remain nameless, let's just say they built a rather famous tri-jet) is in a very serious delay when compared with these two. We were supposed to launch in 2002...now in 2009, and counting. As somebody already mentioned, even if the 787 is delayed, the mere fact that such an advanced plane takes to the skies is an accomplishment in itself. I wish that both Boeing and Airbus remain in business for a long time, cause the products of their rivalry are some pretty exciting planes!

Cheers!

Charles
 
AApilot2b
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 2:09 pm

I read the entire article and see no reason to panic yet. The fact is, every new airplane program has had some sort of issues a long the way. Today, information is more readily available to us, meaning every little detail, mistake, snare, etc... along the way is highlighted to us.
 
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 2:37 pm

Quoting IAD787 (Reply 2):
making something fly is NOT easy, even if we're 104 years after the fact.

OT - it's actually 116 years after the fact (http://www.flyingmachines.org/lilthl.html)
Is power-on still happening later this week or early next week?
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jonathan-l
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 4:43 pm

First flight / first delivery:

A340-300: Oct 91 / Mar 93 = 17 months
A330-300: Nov 92 / Dec 93 = 13 months
767-300ER: Nov 86 / Feb 88 = 14 months
777-200: Jun 94 / May 95 = 11 months
777-300ER: Feb 03 / Apr 04 = 13 months

So Boeing's initial flight test schedule was very agressive but based on the previous programmes, shouldn't we expect about a year between first flight and delivery?
 
WINGS
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 5:10 pm

Quoting Jonathan-l (Reply 15):
First flight / first delivery:

A340-300: Oct 91 / Mar 93 = 17 months
A330-300: Nov 92 / Dec 93 = 13 months
767-300ER: Nov 86 / Feb 88 = 14 months
777-200: Jun 94 / May 95 = 11 months
777-300ER: Feb 03 / Apr 04 = 13 months

So Boeing's initial flight test schedule was very agressive but based on the previous programmes, shouldn't we expect about a year between first flight and delivery?

Why don't we add the A380 program to that data?

A380-800: Apr 04 / Oct 07 = 30 months  Wow!

Regards,
Wings
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AF2323
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 5:17 pm

Quoting Sphealey (Reply 8):
What is the definition of "significantly late"? AFAIK Boeing have not publicly announced a date for first flight, which means that we do not know if it is technically late or not. And we also don't know if first flight in on the critical path for EIS or not. As Jon has indicated if it is possible to accelerate the 2nd and 3rd flying ships and then do more of the flight testing in parallel then first flight might not be critical path.

For me "significantly late" would mean a situation that would cause the delivery to be postponed. I agree the first flight may not be so important, but it is an indication on how smooth things are going. They currently have issues on Dreamliner one, but how will it impact on the following planes?
So, I can't tell you what is significantly late in that case, as I don't have inside knowledge on what's going on and what are Boeing backup plans. But I assume there is a minimum length for the certification program, depending on the number of Dreamliners Boeing will be able to use. Could they certify the plane in say, less than six month?
 
LHR27C
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 5:25 pm

Quoting WINGS (Reply 16):
A380-800: Apr 04 / Oct 07 = 30 months Wow!

I think that should be April 05!  Smile
Once you have tasted flight, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned forever skyward
 
LN-KGL
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 6:21 pm

Do I sense a change of tone from one year ago or am I wrong?

I would say we have to prepare our selfs for a late Dream - maybe a more realistic EIS would be at the start of the winter season 2008/2009? Even that schedule would be a tight one if you look at the latest records of Boeing wide bodied twins:

767-200: ff 26 Sept 1981 eis 8 Sept 1982 = 11.5 months
767-200ER: ff 6 Mar 1984 eis 27 Mar 1984 = 21 days
767-300: ff 30 Jan 1986 eis 20 Oct 1986 = 9.6 months
767-300ER: ff 9 Dec 1986 eis 3 Mar 1988 = 14.7 months
767-400ER: ff 9 Oct 1999 eis 14 Sept 200 = 11.2 months
777-200: ff 12 Jun 1994 eis 7 June 1995 = 11.8 months
777-200ER: ff 7 Oct 1996 eis 9 Feb 1997 = 4.1 months
777-200LR: ff 8 Mar 2005 eis 3 Mar 2006 = 11.8 months
777-300: ff 16 Oct 1997 eis 27 May 1998 = 7.3 months
777-300ER: ff 24 Feb 2003 eis 10 May 2004 = 14.5 months

Average of all the above = 9.7 months
Average of the first of type = 11.7 months
Average of the last two projects = 13.2 months

In addition to all that new technology for the 787, the trend has to be broken big time if Boeing is going to deliver in May.

[Edited 2007-08-22 11:23:21]

[Edited 2007-08-22 11:24:47]
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 6:34 pm

Quoting Sphealey (Reply 8):
AFAIK Boeing have not publicly announced a date for first flight, which means that we do not know if it is technically late or not.

They haven't publicly announced a date (and they don't have one internally) but they have publicly stated target ranges several times. They look like they will probably miss their initial targets.

Quoting Jonathan-l (Reply 15):
So Boeing's initial flight test schedule was very agressive but based on the previous programmes, shouldn't we expect about a year between first flight and delivery?

You can't really base this one off of previous programs because it's so different. This is really a clean-sheet as far as design, production, and certification goes.

Tom.
 
captainx
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 7:32 pm

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 18):
You can't really base this one off of previous programs because it's so different. This is really a clean-sheet as far as design, production, and certification goes.

And likely will take much longer to certify due to new technologies the FAA is not yet comfortable with, new processes that the FAA is not yet comfortable with, and certification of foreign factories by the FAA - a huge hurdle. Then if there are technical issues, like pressurization, electric brakes, composite bubbles or delam, software, and/or wiring; then triple the time.

History has shown that almost all revolutionary attempts fail.
 
brendows
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 7:42 pm

Quoting CaptainX (Reply 19):
electric brakes

Why are you so negative towards the electrical brakes, which really is no more than an electrical actuator pushing on the brake discs, why is it so more likely to fail in your eyes compared to the normal hydraulic brakes?  scratchchin 

Quoting CaptainX (Reply 19):
composite bubbles or delam

A fuselage section with bubbles in it wouldn't get far in the production process, they are checked for these malfunctions early on. The use of composites aren't new in the aviation business, why should delamination and bubbles be a problem now?

You are one pessimistic chap aren't you  bouncy 


Thanks for the updates IAD787! Do you know how far they have come when it comes to changing the ~1000 temporary fasteners on LN1?
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 8:05 pm

Quoting CaptainX (Reply 19):
And likely will take much longer to certify due to new technologies the FAA is not yet comfortable with, new processes that the FAA is not yet comfortable with, and certification of foreign factories by the FAA - a huge hurdle.

Which technology isn't the FAA comfortable with? They've certified composite fuselages, wings, and empennage before. Most of this type of concern was addressed quite some time ago; all of the material certification challenges have nothing to do with flight testing.

As for foreign factories, that's hardly new. Huge chunks of many current Boeing airplanes come from overseas and most of Airbus airplanes (which are FAA certified) are from foreign factories. Why would that be any bigger a hurdle here than it usually is?

Tom.
 
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 8:44 pm

Quoting CaptainX (Reply 19):

History has shown that almost all revolutionary attempts fail.

If that were indeed true we would still be riding around in horse-drawn buggies.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 9:43 pm

Quoting CaptainX (Reply 19):
And likely will take much longer to certify due to new technologies the FAA is not yet comfortable with, new processes that the FAA is not yet comfortable with, and certification of foreign factories by the FAA - a huge hurdle. Then if there are technical issues, like pressurization, electric brakes, composite bubbles or delam, software, and/or wiring; then triple the time.

Boeing has been working with the FAA, in some cases for years, on many of these technologies and processes. Hell, if I am not misinterpreting reports, Boeing is helping the FAA write the actual certification procedures themselves for some of these technologies. So I don't see where the FAA is going to suddenly stop the certification process since they've been part of it since before program launch.

The Japanese heavies are already certified (have been since 1979 with the 767) and they make some 30% of the 777 so the FAA won't have any beefs there. Not sure how much previous work Alenia has done for Boeing, but I imagine they've done work for Airbus and that family has been certified for operation in the US by the FAA.

So I see no delays from those issues.
 
TKV
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 10:33 pm

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 22):
Quoting CaptainX (Reply 19):

History has shown that almost all revolutionary attempts fail.

If that were indeed true we would still be riding around in horse-drawn buggies.

Why you and any other bother to answer such kind of statements ??

TKV
 
IAD787
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 10:55 pm

Anyone else having trouble getting to the page?
Former FlightBlogger turned Wall Street Journal Aerospace Beat Reporter
 
TKV
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 10:57 pm

As I assume the discussion will continue here, I post this referring to the thread "787 Assembly Update (Detailed) - Part V III" (""PART VIII)

Quote:
Art Thread VIII, reply=160]Perhaps their contingency plans are not panning out as expected, so are being amended to try to get things back on track. Could be that they will reveal this Sept 5th along the lines of : "We have experienced some problems but have everything under control. Target EIS has not shifted."

This is a possibility between many other.

Quoting Clickhappy Thread VIII (Reply 161):
The other factor that puts any company in a tough position is when they simply don't have an answer. What Boeing wants to avoid is saying, "Yes, we are a bit late, but it will only be 4 weeks" and then have to come back in 3 weeks and say "Oops, we need another 6 weeks."

There (in my opinion) wont be an official word from Boeing until they know just how bad it is going to be.



Quoting TKV,threaVIII, reply=153:
I admire the willingness of Boeing to allow such "roaming" and info gathering, starkly contrasting with Airbus attitude trying to avoid any info regarding (as example) the progress and certification of the SIA A380 MSN 03, but allowing such generates the absolute need that information regarding the road to the first flight and later deliveries of the B787 must be regularly issued by high level and knowledgeable Boeing leadership.
Not doing so opens the door to speculation and irresponsible posting of comments

I agree. I "how bad" or otherwise (see Art's Reply and my comment above) we will see.

Hopefully the September 5 news will fill the void I signal in my Reply 153

TKV
 
EI321
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 11:07 pm

Quoting IAD787 (Reply 25):
Anyone else having trouble getting to the page?

heres what I'm getting:

Google
Error


Server Error
The server encountered a temporary error and could not complete your request.
Please try again in 30 seconds.
 
IAD787
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 11:11 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 27):

heres what I'm getting:

Google
Error


Server Error
The server encountered a temporary error and could not complete your request.
Please try again in 30 seconds.

Okay, I'm not alone. Everything in the blogspot.com universe is dead.

That's not good at all.
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BoomBoom
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 11:27 pm

Quoting IAD787 (Reply 7):
I think "significantly late" is when airlines start canceling their orders.

"Significantly late" would be if Boeing has to pay compensation to the airlines.
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 11:29 pm

Quoting TKV (Reply 24):

Why you and any other bother to answer such kind of statements ??

For the fun of it, of course.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
AF2323
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 11:35 pm

Quoting IAD787 (Reply 28):
Okay, I'm not alone. Everything in the blogspot.com universe is dead.

That's not good at all.

It could be a technical problem that will be solved soon...

Quoting TKV (Reply 26):
Quoting TKV,threaVIII, reply=153:
I admire the willingness of Boeing to allow such "roaming" and info gathering

Or Boeing has no willingness anymore to share information and asked to shut down the website?
 
IAD787
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 11:45 pm

Quoting AF2323 (Reply 31):
Or Boeing has no willingness anymore to share information and asked to shut down the website?

Nah, it's not Boeing. Seriously all xxxxxxx.blogspot.com websites are down

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DAYflyer
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 11:46 pm

Gosh I hope this program does not slip further.

How will this impact orders and deliveries if they miss on LN 001, or if testing falls behind??
One Nation Under God
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 11:48 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 23):
Hell, if I am not misinterpreting reports, Boeing is helping the FAA write the actual certification
procedures themselves for some of these technologies.

That's my understanding as well. I just finished an Avaiation Week & Space Technology article that includes a chunk on that very subject (fair use excerpt):
"To mitigate risk, Boeing has reached a pre-flight agreement with the FAA on how it will demonstrate compliance on about 100 of the agency's issues of concern. Bair says the "pre-cert" list has essentially been cleared, a far cry from past programs when open issues remained even as the maiden flights took off."

My interpretation is that Boeing already knows where the FAA has heartburn and has reached an agreement with them on how to mitigate it.

Tom.
 
AF2323
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Wed Aug 22, 2007 11:52 pm

Quoting IAD787 (Reply 32):
Nah, it's not Boeing. Seriously all xxxxxxx.blogspot.com websites are down

Ok, that's good news.
 
IAD787
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Thu Aug 23, 2007 12:00 am

It's up and running again.
Former FlightBlogger turned Wall Street Journal Aerospace Beat Reporter
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Thu Aug 23, 2007 12:20 am

Quoting TKV (Reply 24):
Why you and any other bother to answer such kind of statements?


Because I wouldn't want members to mistakenly think those statements were factually accurate...

[Edited 2007-08-22 17:48:41]
 
texfly101
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Thu Aug 23, 2007 12:35 am

Quoting IAD787 (Reply 7):
I think "significantly late" is when airlines start canceling their orders.

No airline will cancel their order for this airplane. All their contracts have penalty clauses for damages due to non delivery. Also, if the worst case happens with missing EIS, there will be negotiations between Boeing and select groups for shuffling the delivery schedule. The main problem is that this manufacturing schedule has been built with no fat in the schedule. There are no early open slots that can absorb a delay. The production ramp up to max rate has already been planned. In fact, due to the unforseen demand, the manufacturing schedule has actually been pushed to the max from the start. Note that Boeing has been exploring the availability of an increased production level with the State of Washington's Department of Ecology that has set production limits for the factory that can't be exceeded. To open a second line would mean that it would have to be negotiated and permitted. So Boeing is up against the wall on the production cycle and against a hard place with the production problems. It will be interesting to see what they do to compensate for the problems in the first airplane. As has been the case in a lot of development programs, its not always the first plane assembled that flies first. Keep that in mind when first flight happens.
As far as the LCF's not carrying any pieces to Paine, that can be looked on as a good thing. It means that the pieces are being held longer at the partner's facilities which means that they are integrating the lessons learned from the first assembly process. The missing parts, bungled assemblies, misaligned sections all need to be corrected for at the partners facilities. To make any corrections at the 40-26 only means a special out of sequence assembly that takes a lot longer than necessary, requires special paper, etc. So its better to get a properly manufactured section, even if it takes longer as that means that they will make the subsequent sections properly as well. Then, and only then, can the producrtion process ramp up to the max rate that is needed to make the delivery schedule.
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Thu Aug 23, 2007 1:02 am

Quoting BoomBoom (Reply 29):
"Significantly late" would be if Boeing has to pay compensation to the airlines.

Agreed. I think the B787 is likely to be late, but it's not a concern until there is a material financial impact.

Finishing flight testing late will be of no ongoing consequence so long as Boeing is able to produce deliverable aircraft as planned while that testing is underway. The much greater concern is some unforeseen problem with the aircraft being revealed in test...and requiring rework of the aircraft that have left the assembly line. Should that occur, we will have a situation akin to the A380 debacle. yes 
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
LY4XELD
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Thu Aug 23, 2007 1:48 am

Quoting CaptainX (Reply 19):
And likely will take much longer to certify due to new technologies the FAA is not yet comfortable with, new processes that the FAA is not yet comfortable with, and certification of foreign factories by the FAA - a huge hurdle. Then if there are technical issues, like pressurization, electric brakes, composite bubbles or delam, software, and/or wiring; then triple the time.

Your assumptions are baseless and completely absurd. There, I said it.
That's why we're here.
 
captainx
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Thu Aug 23, 2007 1:53 am

Quoting LY4XELD (Reply 40):
Your assumptions are baseless and completely absurd. There, I said it.

I happen to know what I am talking about here, like it or not.
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Thu Aug 23, 2007 1:53 am

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 33):
How will this impact orders and deliveries if they miss on LN 001, or if testing falls behind??

It won't impact orders at all. People that have already placed orders have penalty payments in their contracts and people that are negotiating orders are talking about deliveries so far in the future (with the exception of the US legacy carriers) that delays in EIS are irrelevant to them.

LN001 can't miss, really, since it doesn't have any firm dates attached to it and its milestones aren't connected to EIS. Testing falling behind would push EIS out, which would impact ANA a little bit. Although there's two months between first delivery and EIS anyway, so they might be able to absorb the delay there.

Tom.
 
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Thu Aug 23, 2007 2:01 am

I've recently found out that hours will be required on the static test rig before the first aircraft will be cleared to fly. The static test rig will need to be loaded to conditions applicable to first flight. (e.g. limiting conditions of Mach / Weight / altitude / thrust ). If this article is trapped behind LN0001 this could delay first flight.

One significant point that is missing from this discussion is that LN01>LN06 are flight test aircraft. LN01 being the most heavily instrumented. I would expect that LN01 will measure 100's of thousands of aircraft parameters (1/2 million would be a good guess) from air data to thousands of primary structure loads data. All this instrumentation requires testing, not to mention installing. It would not make much sense to get suppliers doing anything other than serial aircraft production so I would expect Boeing to install the FT gear. With this I would expect LN01>LN06 to take months to complete once the structural assembly has completed just to install FI instrumentation.

The production 787 will have in the region of 20,000lbs to 30,000lbs of flight critical systems (flight control instrumentation, & actuation, LG (systems not structure), avionics, flight deck equipment, air generation & distribution ducting). This is a huge amount of gear to put into the aircraft in a few weeks. The interesting thing is that LN01 to LN06 are flight test articles and in addition to the flight critical systems the FT instrumentation that will be installed will weigh in the region of 40,000to50,000lbs for LN01 less the LN02/03 since they will be less instrumented and will mostly likely concentrate on flight performance. This is going to take time to install. I would expect many many months.

Surely it must be possible to imagine that ~4 months to install the flight critical and flight test systems does not seem unreasonable. That's 7/8/7day + 3 to 4 months.

CaptainX may be making his points in not the best manner but he seems to realise the complexity of what Boeing are up against. I'm guessing at late Nov / early Dec first flight with LN02 Jan08. A new EIS of Dec 08 would seem more realistic. Only time will tell.  pessimist .

Good luck to Boeing as they enter the 787's most critical development phase.

As soon as this great  airplane  is ready we'll see it fly.
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Thu Aug 23, 2007 2:01 am

Quoting CaptainX (Reply 41):
I happen to know what I am talking about here, like it or not.

You have offered no evidence to support your bald assertions and nothing in your profile to give you any credibility whatsoever. A bald assertion that you know what you're talking about only convinces most of us that you haven't a clue.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
captainx
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Thu Aug 23, 2007 2:03 am

Well, well, say it ain't so. Parts for LN2 now push out at least 2 more months.
 
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Thu Aug 23, 2007 2:18 am

Quoting HawkerCamm (Reply 43):

Surely it must be possible to imagine that ~4 months to install the flight critical and flight test systems does not seem unreasonable. That's 7/8/7day + 3 to 4 months.

Certainly it's possible, but I tend to believe that when Boeing laid out the schedule that they had a slight idea of what they were doing and how long it would take. It's hardly surprising, considering the amount of innovation involved, that many things are not going exactly according to plan (it would be extremely surprising if everything was) but Boeing has an unmatched track record of delivering on time. I am inclined, therefore, to give them the benefit of the doubt, and to wait for them to announce that EIS (which is the only date that really matters) will be delayed before I jump to the conclusion that it will be. Boeing has acknowledged from the beginning that the schedule was extremely ambitious; let's give them a chance to meet it before declaring it DOA.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
EI321
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Thu Aug 23, 2007 2:30 am

Does anybody know how long an aircraft would have to be delayed before the manufacturer starts looking a compensation?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Thu Aug 23, 2007 2:32 am

Quoting HawkerCamm (Reply 43):
One significant point that is missing from this discussion is that LN01>LN06 are flight test aircraft.

Yet I am pretty sure this point is not lost on Boeing.  Wink

Quoting HawkerCamm (Reply 43):
Surely it must be possible to imagine that ~4 months to install the flight critical and flight test systems does not seem unreasonable. That's 7/8/7day + 3 to 4 months.

Again, I am sure Boeing knew how long it would take to instrument the 787. They've done it for at least seven previous aircraft families, after all. They likely planned around two months to do it, but they didn't plan on two months of basic assembly, either. So it may very well end up being four months before the instrumenting is done, but I don't think the instrumenting itself will take significantly longer then planned.

And we're still some eight months away from scheduled delivery of LN0007 to NH. And Boeing might be able to get away with a type certificate and individual production certificates on both planes if that is what it takes to get them into NH's hands on time (as Airbus is doing with at least A380 MSN003 for SQ).

The real pressure on Boeing is to get the Chinese 787s into service before the Summer Games. Airbus lost face with the Chinese by not being able to get CZ their A388s in time for those games and Boeing doesn't want to suffer the same. So if push comes to shove, since NH can't fly their 787s on long-haul services at EIS because the JAA won't certify the top-level ETOPS at that time, Boeing might work a deal to get CA and the other Chinese carriers their birds first...
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Faces Hurdles, Opportunities On The 787

Thu Aug 23, 2007 2:33 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 47):
Does anybody know how long an aircraft would have to be delayed before the manufacturer starts looking a compensation?

It would be spelled out in the contract and likely varies carrier to carrier and perhaps even delivery to delivery (early deliveries might have more generous terms then later deliveries when production is "up to speed")...