airbuster
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Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Thu Aug 23, 2007 7:14 am

As the global oil reserve is becoming less and less and nearing a critical state within the coming decade what are you views on the impact this will have on the future of aviation in a whole?

A rough calculation i made about the yearly fuel consumption by the entire commercial fleet of aircraft is as follows, and please correct me because i bet this can be done more accurate:

Average fuel consumption per day per aircraft would be around 30 to 40 tons of fuel if we take 30 tons and multiply that by the global airliner fleet (roughly 25.000 acft) that gives us 30x25.000=750.000 tons wich (at a fuel density of 0.8) gives us 600.000.000 liters A DAY!! that times 365 = 2,19e+11 liters a year.............

Again i invite you to come with the most accurate figures available but this is an alarming rate and adding to this all the other oil consumption in the world doesn't make the future look to bright.

What are the alternatives to Jet A powered aircraft? And wich steps are already being taken (if any) to prevent a collapse of the best globalised transportation system in existence?

awaiting your responses,

AB
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redflyer
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Thu Aug 23, 2007 7:48 am

It's estimated that prior to the industrial revolution, the Earth contained the equivalent of 12 trillion barrels of oil. For the past 100 years, we've consumed about 1 trillion of that total. It's estimated that in the next 50 years we'll consume another 1 trillion. That leaves 10 trillion left to be extracted. I'm not worried about running out of Jet A.

What we might eventually run out of is the oil that is near the surface and cheap to extract and refine. But I view that as a good thing because once that happens, it will become more economical to extract oil in other locations and conditions. And we'll no longer be so dependent on the Middle East, which is where most of that cheap, easy to refine, oil is.

All this "the sky is falling" mantra rarely takes into consideration the fact that oil from the Middle East is too plentiful and too cheap to ignore. Once its price goes up because of supply pressures (either from physical or political restrictions), the price of other reserves will become competitive and their supply will increase, eventually bringing their price down.

So have no fear, we'll all be flying our favorite Airbus and Boeing airplanes for decades to come.  Wink
My other home is in the sky inside my Piper Cherokee 180.
 
sparklehorse12
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Thu Aug 23, 2007 8:01 am

I would have to agree. The oil price is reflective of market manipulation not the reality of oil reserves. The war in Iraq was the first excuse then blame China and India for thier 'appetite" for energy....it's a load of rubbish. Oil companies are getting rich and funding very elaborate if not deceiptful campaigns to make you think there is a shortage....they themselves are restricting supply.
Airlines Flown : QF,NW,AA, CX, AC, MH, SQ, DJ, NZ, TG, PG,US, FJ, J8, AN, DD, JQ
 
LaminarFlow
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Thu Aug 23, 2007 8:06 am

While I feel very much the same, I am worried that ours is a dangerous perspective to hold. The remaining oil, while plenitiful, is very costly and environmentally harmful to extract at present (eg. Alberta oil sands).

I believe that the forthcoming oil crisis will be a prime catalyst for the development of fantastic new technologies introduced to the aviation industry. Pressure fosters ingenuity.
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Thu Aug 23, 2007 8:19 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 1):
What we might eventually run out of is the oil that is near the surface and cheap to extract and refine.

 checkmark Correct. It is not so much the amount of oil in the ground that is of concern, but rather our ability to extract and use what remains economically.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 1):
Once its price goes up because of supply pressures (either from physical or political restrictions), the price of other reserves will become competitive and their supply will increase, eventually bringing their price down.

Not necessarily. You're assuming that the supply from those alternative sources will exceed demand, and that is not at all likely.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 1):
So have no fear, we'll all be flying our favorite Airbus and Boeing airplanes for decades to come.

Maybe. The cost of fueling those aircraft will rise, so we may not all be able to afford the ticket prices in decades to come. Future air traffic growth will be constrained by fuel costs. sigh 
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
redflyer
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Thu Aug 23, 2007 8:33 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 4):
Not necessarily. You're assuming that the supply from those alternative sources will exceed demand, and that is not at all likely.

You're right. My assumption was that supply will eventually outstrip demand. And that may happen, but it could be decades away.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 4):
Maybe. The cost of fueling those aircraft will rise, so we may not all be able to afford the ticket prices in decades to come. Future air traffic growth will be constrained by fuel costs.

Ah, but I wasn't referring to current generation aircraft. I just meant as the market evolves, so will Airbus' and Boeing's products. But we'll still be able to fly our favorite Airbus and Boeing planes far into the future, even if they are pedal-powered by the passengers.  Wink (But what I really meant is that they will continue to become more efficient and possibly run on a mix of alternative fuels.)
My other home is in the sky inside my Piper Cherokee 180.
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Thu Aug 23, 2007 8:40 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 5):
My assumption was that supply will eventually outstrip demand. And that may happen, but it could be decades away.

And it might be the result of demand suppressed by high energy costs and consequent depression in economic activity. Mankind has enjoyed cheap and easy energy in the petroleum age - much will change in the future. I say that as a pragmatist, not a pessimist. We will adapt. yes 

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 5):
But what I really meant is that they will continue to become more efficient and possibly run on a mix of alternative fuels.)

Agreed on both counts. Blended-Wing designs will provide a step-change in efficiency. Alternative fuels will likely play a huge role, but they will not be cheap. airplane 
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
Mike89406
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Thu Aug 23, 2007 9:09 am

I suggest that people watch the show "Crude Awakening" which was shown on the Sundance Channel, and form you're own opinions. It did bring up some alarming things about oil and the industry and was thought provoking but is it all factual? Or does it lean towards Treehugger values? Thats my only concern.

I have to say whether or not you believe in this stuff global Warming etc. or you don't belive this show will open you're eyes to possible major pitfalls to the future of petroleum. Of course i watched it with an objective mind but learned some imprtant history as well.

Previews of Crude Awakening-

http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/04...en-episode-1-crude-awakening-revi/

http://groovygreen.com/groove/?p=1289

Just my 2 Cents....
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Thu Aug 23, 2007 9:45 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 1):

All this "the sky is falling" mantra rarely takes into consideration the fact that oil from the Middle East is too plentiful and too cheap to ignore. Once its price goes up because of supply pressures (either from physical or political restrictions), the price of other reserves will become competitive and their supply will increase, eventually bringing their price down.

I agree. Make fuel pricey enough, there is plenty out there to find. e.g., the fight for arctic drilling rights going on right now.

We also have the ability to "make" our own fuel. Theoretically, you can get oil from algea and certain bacteria. If someone figures out a way to "farm" oil... $$$$$.

Also, as far as diesel and Jet-A are concerned, do not forget that the US military has an active program to make JP-8 from coal. While less than ideal... it will supply fuel.

The pressure to improve fuel burn is immense. When oil was stuck at $25-$35/bbl, it was uneconomical to retire an aircraft before the maintenance expenses drove its "end of life." Now you are seeing the life of planes reduced due to the economics of their fuel burn.

There is so much that can be done to drop fuel burn. None of it easy engineering. So hire more Aerospace R&D engineers!  bigthumbsup 



Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 6):
We will adapt.

Yes. Guess right and there is huge money to be made.  yes 

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 6):
Blended-Wing designs will provide a step-change in efficiency. Alternative fuels will likely play a huge role, but they will not be cheap.

I'm a huge fan of BWBs! Like biplanes, the current "cigar with wings" will be replaced. I believe by the BWB. It could be with a "lifting body." Not to mention engines. One day I believe fuel cells in the cargo hold will power electric motors out on the wings.  spin  The theoretical efficiency advantage is huge! Bummer that's a bit in the future... So get the Ph.D's working on it!

A society builds wealth on transportation. If you hunger down and hide from the world... there are billions that couldn't be fed without fossil fuels. People have been predicting the end of the world due to running out of resources forever.

Guess what, we've run out of those resources before! What? Wood. We cannot feed ourselves anymore cooking on wood and build our ships, bridges, and other things out of wood like we used to. Oh wait... we now farm fast growing pine... (vs. slow growing European woods). Nevermind...

Same with coal (read what London used to be like... yuck!).

This too shall pass. We'll figure out some alternative and laugh at how worried we were.  Wink

Lightsaber
"They did not know it was impossible, so they did it!" - Mark Twain
 
travellin'man
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Thu Aug 23, 2007 10:28 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 4):
checkmark Correct. It is not so much the amount of oil in the ground that is of concern, but rather our ability to extract and use what remains economically.

Just to add to this, a concern is the balance of energy used to extract and refine the energy created. Currently that is in favor of the energy generated, but, without having seem economic models, I would venture that it could tip the other way, which will in turn greatly affect the economics. Societies that expend more energy than what they create end up collapsing generally.

There is a strong political concern that, when you consider that a lot of US foreign policy is directed towards the stewardship of our access to oil, what sort of indirect "tax" are Americans paying for this access to oil in the Middle East?

The other great concern are the indirect costs of putting carbon in the atmosphere. While not directly attributable to your plane ticket in terms of its cost, the impact of carbon emissions and the consequent rapid warming of our atmosphere (just to be pre-emptive here, this is about as close to a hard fact as one can get, with the overwhelming majority of the world's scientific community in agreement that, any natural cycling of the planet's temperature aside, mankind's carbon emissions are radically heating the atmosphere and altering the climate) has costs that we all end up paying for in other ways. One of the challenges facing society as a whole, be it individuals in their consumption patterns, governments in their creation of policy, businesses in their assessments of best practices, scientists in their capacity to analyze and innovate, is how to incorporate this indirect cost into our thinking as a way to help spur innovation and ultimately an evolution towards cleaner technologies that are not only not damaging to the environment, but -egads!- perhaps even beneficial to us as a species, and to our surrounding planet. Of course these costs are harder to assess for being indirect.
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TeamAmerica
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Thu Aug 23, 2007 11:48 am

Quoting Travellin'man (Reply 9):
Just to add to this, a concern is the balance of energy used to extract and refine the energy created.

Good point. The vast amounts of oil potential in the Canadian oil sands, the US oil shales and Venezuela's Orinoco-belt heavy crude all fall into the category of huge volumes with diluted value in terms of cost and net energy extracted. The difficulty of the extraction also tends to limit the rate of production, regardless of demand. Production from the Canadian oil sands are limited by the amount of water available, for example.

Quoting Travellin'man (Reply 9):
what sort of indirect "tax" are Americans paying for this access to oil in the Middle East?

Just a tidbit that most Americans fail to realize - the majority of the oil imported by the USA comes from non-Middle East sources (current data at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/p..._level_imports/current/import.html ).

Supply from the Middle East is critical due to the worldwide effects should it be interrupted, but that's not where we actually get the oil for our domestic consumption.

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 8):
Yes. Guess right and there is huge money to be made.

Not to brag, but I've made good money with energy-related investments. Not even necessary to guess right, just diversify and the winners will be there in your portfolio. thumbsup 

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 8):
I'm a huge fan of BWBs! Like biplanes, the current "cigar with wings" will be replaced.

I'm a fan too! One point I've tried to make in other threads is the necessity to change our thinking. Most of the objections to the BWB will ultimately be dismissed as the choice becomes "accept this or don't fly". We will collectively accept not having a window, taking an extra g acceleration during banking, and even the possibilty that we won't be able to get out of the thing in the event of a crash. Better to accept the trade-offs than not to fly at all. As I said, we'll adapt.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
MMEPHX
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Thu Aug 23, 2007 12:26 pm

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 4):
Correct. It is not so much the amount of oil in the ground that is of concern, but rather our ability to extract and use what remains economically

keyword there is economically. Can we keep extracting oil cheaply enough to make it feasible and can we do it with less energy than is available in the extracted oil? At some point in the future it is likely one or more of the following occurs:

1) too expensive to extract oil and that the market won't pay. $250/barrel anyone?
2) It will take more energy to extract than the energy contained in the extracted oil
3) We'll actually run out completely (has to eventually but that could be hundreds or thousands of years away)

1 & 2 are probably more likely and that, plus global warming is probably what will drive the push for alternate fuels for aviation. These could be scenarios that happen within the next 20 years or so.
 
hmmmm...
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Thu Aug 23, 2007 12:39 pm

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 8):
One day I believe fuel cells in the cargo hold will power electric motors out on the wings.

So you are predicting we will return to prop flight? Not likely.
An optimist robs himself of the joy of being pleasantly surprised
 
hmmmm...
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Thu Aug 23, 2007 12:54 pm

There is plenty of oil to last another 50 years, maybe 100. Recovering oil under the sea will become just as cost effective as recovering oil from the middle east when technology makes it feasible. Technology requires money. Money comes from the initial high cost of the oil. Everything is relative. When oil was first discovered over a hundred years ago, it was not cheap or easy to get it out of the ground then either. But we got better at it, and the price became affordable. That dynamic will always repeat itself. The oil companies have had no need to invest in that technology up til now.

And remember, the price you pay at the pump is about twice what it would be if the oil didn't come from a politically unstable part of the world. There is a security premium build into the price of gas that has nothing to do with the cost of drilling it out of the ground. Speculators decide the price you pay. Oil that is pumped from the sea, and not from the arab nations, will be a stable supply, eliminating the speculator's security premium. Oil from the sea could end up being cheaper to supply to the gas stations if the oil companies wanted to be fair. Of course, they don't, they will pocket that dividend, but at least the price will be stable.
An optimist robs himself of the joy of being pleasantly surprised
 
InnocuousFox
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 12:20 am

This thread is based on a false premise, therefore there is no need to answer.

However, as a note: 90% of the available oil is held by state-run companies (e.g. Venezuela, Mexico, Saudi Arabia). Often, as is the case with Mexico, the capacity is barely being touched because of gross inefficiencies with the state-run bureaucracy. If they were to get out of the way and privatize that exploration and production, you would see supplies leap and prices go down.
Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
 
planemaker
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 1:37 am

Oil supplies will not be a factor in out lifetime. However, carbon emissions already are an increasing factor and that is going to have an impact on the industry going forward.

Quoting Airbuster (Thread starter):
Again i invite you to come with the most accurate figures available but this is an alarming rate and adding to this all the other oil consumption in the world doesn't make the future look to bright.

The consumption rate will almost certainly decrease by the end of the next decade for a number of reasons. More fuel effcient aircraft such as the 787 will replace older aircraft. If you look at a global fleet breakdown there are still a lot of older aircraft that will be retired within the next 10 years (except NWA DC-9s  Wink ).

Furthermore, fuel saving practices such as SRB's "tug to the "starting grid" will be implemented, etc. As well, as elements of the FAA's NextGen ATM system comes online (with an expected completion of before 2025), airline fuel savings will really become very significant.

Finally, there will be consolidation globally in the industry during the next 2 decades that will contribute to the reduction of fuel use.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
cobra27
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 1:57 am

I am sure that all modes of transportation in the future will use electric motors, maybe linear classic rotor to turn the fan. they are highly efficient and the most reliable and cheap to produce,quiet, can rev up quickly... the trick is only to store enough electricity. In the distant future we will have even better stuff
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 2:14 am

Quoting Airbuster (Thread starter):
this is an alarming rate and adding to this all the other oil consumption in the world doesn't make the future look to bright.

It's not particularly alarming when you consider that aviation is only a small chunk of the overall oil-consumption pie. Other industries will be hit harder, faster.

Quoting Airbuster (Thread starter):
What are the alternatives to Jet A powered aircraft?

A jet engine will run on pretty much anything that burns. You can get Jet-A-like substances from coal, biodiesel, crude, etc. If you have a good supply of cheap electricity, you can fabricate it from scratch...the isn't very energy efficient, but it's not like we can't make hydrocarbons if we need them.

Quoting Airbuster (Thread starter):
And wich steps are already being taken (if any) to prevent a collapse of the best globalised transportation system in existence?

This is exactly what's driving the big jump in efficiency of the next generation of jet liners. Several manufacturers are also looking at biofuels, coal-derived fuels, and fuel cells.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 1):
the Earth contained the equivalent of 12 trillion barrels of oil. For the past 100 years, we've consumed about 1 trillion of that total. It's estimated that in the next 50 years we'll consume another 1 trillion. That leaves 10 trillion left to be extracted.

Not really...current technology can, at best, get about 25% of the oil out of any particular resevoir. Obviously, that will go up with technology, but it's an asymptotic problem so we'll never be able to extract all of the oil that's in the ground.

Tom.
 
EXAAUADL
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 2:35 am

Quoting Airbuster (Thread starter):
As the global oil reserve is becoming less and less and nearing a critical state within the coming decade what are you views on the impact this will have on the future of aviation in a whole?

I disagree with the premise..there is plenty of oil, we should get off oil for political and environmental reasons
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 2:48 am

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 12):
So you are predicting we will return to prop flight? Not likely.

Props? No. Shrouded fans, yes. Big difference. But fuel cells have a theoretical fuel efficiency far above gas turbines. Same flight mach number. For all a hi-bypass gas turbine engine is a big shrouded fan.  Wink

Lightsaber

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 10):
We will collectively accept not having a window, taking an extra g acceleration during banking, and even the possibilty that we won't be able to get out of the thing in the event of a crash. Better to accept the trade-offs than not to fly at all. As I said, we'll adapt.

We will adapt.  Wink

As to evacuation, I see no reason why it cannot be fixed. (e.g., tunnels to overwing exits.)

No windows? I'd rather have a IFE tied to half dozen cameras to choose from!  bigthumbsup 

As to the banking G's... no real issue. Too much fuel to be saved. Don't like it? Pay extra for a centerline seat.  Wink
Note: That centerline seat on a BWB will be cheaper than any seat on a "cigar with wings."  Smile

Lightsaber
"They did not know it was impossible, so they did it!" - Mark Twain
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 3:39 am

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 13):
That dynamic will always repeat itself.

That's a bold assertion. We cannot know that the cost of future oil extraction will come down at all, much less that it will ever be so cheap as to be comparable to our past experience. I think it's pretty clear that petroleum will be more expensive in the future, and the only debatable point is how much more expensive.

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 13):
Oil that is pumped from the sea, and not from the arab nations, will be a stable supply, eliminating the speculator's security premium.

Exactly what "oil from the sea" are you thinking of? There are offshore reserves, certainly, but where on Earth are there reserves that rival the Middle East?

Quoting InnocuousFox (Reply 14):
Often, as is the case with Mexico, the capacity is barely being touched because of gross inefficiencies with the state-run bureaucracy.

This assumes that, with investment, sufficient oil reserves would be located in order to increase production. In actual fact Mexico's largest field (the Cantarell) is in undeniable decline - they would need massive investment in exploration just to sustain production, much less increase it. Link: http://www.hubbertpeak.com/mx/ (note: that is a "peak oil" website, but the article includes many supporting links for reference). Bottom line is that there is no reasonable expectation that any reserve as large as Cantarell could be located, and lacking that Mexican oil production will continue to decline. This is pretty much the case in every developed oil region. We still find new fields in the US, but overall production has steadily declined.

You cannot pump more oil out the ground just by throwing money at it. At some point, there is a maximum sustainable rate of production from any oil field, and that production inevitably reaches a point of decline. Advancing technology has mostly helped to increase the ultimate total oil extracted, but not so much to increase the rate of production.

Consider the case where oil production doesn't decline, but just stays roughly where it is today. That alone stifles the doubling or tripling of air traffic that Airbus and Boeing predict. All growth will be enabled by fuel efficiency rather than with new supplies. Fuel efficient aircraft such as the A350 and B787 will thrive, while regional jets will disappear. I predict a new generation of small turboprops in the future, and sooner than we think. airplane 

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 15):
Oil supplies will not be a factor in out lifetime. However, carbon emissions already are an increasing factor and that is going to have an impact on the industry going forward.

While I disagree that oil supplies are not a concern, your point is well taken. It doesn't much matter if we don't have enough oil vs. not able/willing to burn it. The economic effects are essentially the same, except that in the latter case we have control over events. If "peak oil" is real, events will control us. wink 

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 17):
It's not particularly alarming when you consider that aviation is only a small chunk of the overall oil-consumption pie. Other industries will be hit harder, faster.

You're thinking of fuel supply alone. If the cost of energy continues to rise, the cumulative effect on the worldwide economy will certainly affect aviation. The airlines will be able to obtain fuel, at a cost, but fewer passengers will be willing/able to pay the price of the ticket.

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 19):
No windows? I'd rather have a IFE tied to half dozen cameras to choose from!

Heartily agree. I'd add some processing to merge the images from those cameras and create a virtual sphere of vision. You would have freedom to scroll your IFE video in any direction at all....almost like being the bird itself!  cloudnine 
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
Tan Flyr
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 6:39 am

Quoting Sparklehorse12 (Reply 2):
I would have to agree. The oil price is reflective of market manipulation not the reality of oil reserves. The war in Iraq was the first excuse then blame China and India for thier 'appetite" for energy....it's a load of rubbish. Oil companies are getting rich and funding very elaborate if not deceiptful campaigns to make you think there is a shortage....they themselves are restricting supply.

Oil is a commodity that is traded, with supplies coming from a myriad of sources. However, as 1 poster above noted, a sizable chunk come from either unstable areas (politically) or state run oil companies whose only mission is to enrich the coffers of their respective owners. Add these 2 to the inept ones (pemex) and you have a problem in this area.

Now if you look at the free market, even in North America you have several projects at increasing either supply of crude or refined products or both. As noted above, huge investments in canadian tar sands..so much production will be coming that Canadian oil producers are looking for places to refine this goo..thus Husky Energy's perchase of the Lima, OH refinery from Valero and plans to INVEST up to 2 billion to upgrade it to crack Canadian crudes. Same with En Cana and Conoco-Phillips..big project at Woods River ,IL same objective. I recall reading that BP is looking at ways to take Canadian crude into its' Whiting, In refinery and marathon is doing the same for its plants at Robinson, Il and St.Paul, MN

marathon is alo adding 180,000 BPD capacity to the plant at Garyville, LA, and EXXOn is looking at 3 billion to upgrade the plant at Baton Rouge, LA. There are others. (Irving oil , Canada is considering bulding a 300,000 BPD refinery in halifax to supply gasoline to the NE US as there is no way a US company could ever build a new plant of that size. So our Canadian buddies get those jobs.

There are 3 items to look at, RELIABLE supplies, Affordable prices (world market), and refining capacity. We must look at short term (5-20 yrs) projects to increase supplies for a continually growing economy and world population thirsty for petroleum products and a longer term to get a better mix of synthetics, ethanol, etc to mix to maintain a global economy that we can afford.
 
planemaker
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 7:22 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 19):
As to the banking G's... no real issue. Too much fuel to be saved. Don't like it? Pay extra for a centerline seat.

I agree, no real issue... but it won't be just because there is too much fuel to be saved..  Smile There just won't be any need to generate banking G's that exceed today's accepted values!

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 20):
While I disagree that oil supplies are not a concern, your point is well taken.

I've always enjoyed discussing this topic with you!  Smile We'll just have to continue to respectfully agree to disagree!

But even if oil supplies were a concern, all it would do is spur political action on the one hand and development of alternatives on the other hand that much quicker!

I am optimistic that we'll get it right... eventually. Though at times progress is painlfully slow, there really seems to be a coalescing of disparate groups that will make the required changes happen (James Woolsley's "unholy alliance").

But as for peak oil... we've passed so many dates that predicted it that it is now a risk to even guess when it might happen during that next 30 years. A blog that I read had this to say about peak oil...

I know a lot of people believe the peak is on top of us. Some are suggesting that it occurred in the 4th quarter of last year. At one time I had compiled a dozen different peak predictions based on rigorous studies. Nine of the twelve predicted a peak between now and 2016. Another (Shell, I believe) predicted a peak around 2025. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted a peak around 2037, and one study essentially predicted we will never peak.

You might enjoy it... the blogger is very respected and also writes for the Oil Drum.

http://i-r-squared.blogspot.com/2006/04/peak-oil-end-of-world.html

Quoting Tan Flyr (Reply 21):
There are 3 items to look at, RELIABLE supplies, Affordable prices (world market), and refining capacity. We must look at short term (5-20 yrs) projects to increase supplies for a continually growing economy and world population thirsty for petroleum products and a longer term to get a better mix of synthetics, ethanol, etc to mix to maintain a global economy that we can afford.

4th item to look at... that is cheaper and easier than all other 3 items you listed... conservation!! We could cut consumption down by 10% overnight just by adapting a few measures!
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 8:00 am

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 22):
There just won't be any need to generate banking G's that exceed today's accepted values!

True! All that is needed is to provide flight control programming that holds the G's within limits during normal flight. There would only be a handful of noise abatement flight paths and such that would be problematic. The Potomac approach to DCA would be interesting in a BWB. smile 

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 22):
But as for peak oil... we've passed so many dates that predicted it that it is now a risk to even guess when it might happen during that next 30 years

Also true. I don't share the doomsday pessimism of some peak oil commentators, but my observation is that at best oil production is not keeping pace with demand. We don't need to be on a downslope to produce most of the effects posters have mentioned. Demand for more fuel efficient aircraft and alternative fuels will be driven by economics...no doomsday required.

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 22):
You might enjoy it... the blogger is very respected and also writes for the Oil Drum.

I'll give it a read - thanks! smile 
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
khobar
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 8:01 am

If the price of oil reaches a critical state, alternative forms of energy will take over. We saw evidence of this recently when the price of oil was talked about hitting $80, $100, $120 a barrel. When the price climbed just a bit too much there was all kinds of talk about alternative energy - hell, the environmentalists are even talking favourably about nuclear power now - OPEC reversed itself and suddenly the price dropped by a substantial amount just to keep people happy. Suddenly China and India aren't so much the problem.

I've said it before and I'll say it again - when the price of oil goes up substantially because some joker in Iran stubbed his toe, something is seriously wrong. Yet no one seems to care. Perhaps because, oddly enough, the oil companies and environmentalists find themselves on the same side - the oil companies want high prices because of the profits, and environmentalists want high prices because it tends to lead to conservation and a general changing of ones way of life.
 
planemaker
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 8:42 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 23):
There would only be a handful of noise abatement flight paths and such that would be problematic. The Potomac approach to DCA would be interesting in a BWB.

Ahhhh... but another benefit of BWB is that it is a "silent" aircraft and won't have noise abatement issues...

The 'Silent' Aircraft Initiative has a bold aim - to develop a conceptual design for an aircraft whose noise would be almost imperceptible outside the perimeter of a daytime urban airport.



The design is intended for the generation after next of aircraft for entry into service in 2030. The design looked at improving the airframe as well as the engines as half of the noise from a landing plane comes from the airframe. Some of the key design features employed are:

- the overall shape of the aircraft which is a single flying wing – this allows the body to provide lift as well as the wings allowing a slower approach which reduces noise and the shape improves fuel efficiency in cruise;

- flaps and slats have been eliminated – these are a major source of airframe noise when a plane is landing;

- the undercarriage has been simplified and its aerodynamics improved;

- the engines are mounted on the top of the aircraft which screens much of the noise from the ground;

- novel ultra-high bypass engines, which have variable size jet nozzles to allow slower jet propulsion during takeoff and climb for low noise, and be optimized for maximum efficiency during cruise which requires higher jet speeds.


Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 23):
but my observation is that at best oil production is not keeping pace with demand

At the moment you are not quite correct... other wise prices would be spiking very high. But, again, I don't think that it is any cause for undue concern as things could change quite dramatically for the positive.... and quite quickly - as we are almost reaching the tipping point! Unfortunately, there is too much big business and politcs in the way at the moment for it to happen in the next few years... but that is changing. My hope is that by 2015 we will see a real swing in policy and technology.

Of course, big oil is against progress - naturally, and is fighting tooth and nail... after all, what business wants to see an alternative to an exceedingly profitable monopoly. But as I said, I am optimistic!!!  Smile
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
hmmmm...
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 8:47 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 20):
Exactly what "oil from the sea" are you thinking of? There are offshore reserves, certainly, but where on Earth are there reserves that rival the Middle East?

Just one example. There is as much oil under the Arctic ocean as there is in all of the Middle East. The Middle East is actually becoming dry after 60 years of pumping. As we know, 3/4 of the world is covered by water. The oceans of the world have barely been touched, especially the North Sea and just recently a huge find in the Gulf of Mexico was announced last year. Add them all up, and you have probable reserves that exceed anything in Saudi Arabia.

On land, the United States has the largest known concentration of oil shale in the world, and holds an estimated 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil, albeit at higher prices, but that is four times what remains in Saudi Arabia, and that alone would be enough to meet U.S. demand for oil at current levels for 110 years.

Maybe oil was too cheap for a long time. So now it is a more realistic price. And at these realistic prices, there is lots of oil to be had. Some people don't like that. They want us to run out of oil now.
An optimist robs himself of the joy of being pleasantly surprised
 
ikramerica
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 9:03 am

Quoting Airbuster (Thread starter):
As the global oil reserve is becoming less and less and nearing a critical state within the coming decade what are you views on the impact this will have on the future of aviation in a whole?

I was born in the 70s, and the same exact thing was being said 30 years ago. We wouldn't make it out of the next decade.

Then, 10 years later, we experienced some of the cheapest oil prices EVER, with gas prices in late 80s dollars of 80 cents a gallon.

Funny how in 10 years all those concerns went away for a while.

Why? because as a response to the 70s (pricing and fake scarcity), new production was created and efficiency was increased. Both of those combined to turn a "crisis" into a surplus.

The same thing is happening today.

Cars, planes, appliances, power plants, all becoming more efficient. Finding new sources of oil, etc. Price will plummet in the coming years...

Quoting Mike89406 (Reply 7):
Or does it lean towards Treehugger values?

+

Quoting Mike89406 (Reply 7):
the Sundance Channel

= ?

Well, just do the quick math there and make your own call.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 10:06 am

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 22):
There just won't be any need to generate banking G's that exceed today's accepted values!

Awww... you're no fun!  mad 

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 25):
Ahhhh... but another benefit of BWB is that it is a "silent" aircraft and won't have noise abatement issues...

Very quiet.  Smile Although, I disagree about feeding an engine from the aircraft boundary layer!

But slower landing speeds remarkably cut the noise.  Smile

And less noisey airplanes will allow for easy airport expansion!  cloudnine 

Ok... just let me dream for a bit. I know the NIMBY reality... (They're never happy)

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 27):

Funny how in 10 years all those concerns went away for a while.

Unfortunately true. It was next to impossible to put any risk into a program for improved fuel efficiency; it just didn't pay off. Now... a decade of "forgotten R&D" is being put into motion. Alas, it will take a decade to get the system geared up to caring about fuel economy. But hey, now we can put all of that exciting fuel efficiency into use!

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 26):

Maybe oil was too cheap for a long time. So now it is a more realistic price. And at these realistic prices, there is lots of oil to be had. Some people don't like that. They want us to run out of oil now.

My dad's like that... he cannot accept there is 3X as much available oil at $70/bbl as there was at $25/bbl... He'd rather point out the problems with getting at the new oil; I'd rather point out how that's a job for my friends!

Lightsaber
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jdevora
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 10:40 am

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 12):
So you are predicting we will return to prop flight? Not likely.

Some of the prototypes for the next gen planes are "open rotor", not sure if this is a type of "prop" or if it is considered something different

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 13):
There is plenty of oil to last another 50 years, maybe 100. Recovering oil under the sea will become just as cost effective as recovering oil from the middle east when technology makes it feasible. Technology requires money. Money comes from the initial high cost of the oil. Everything is relative. When oil was first discovered over a hundred years ago, it was not cheap or easy to get it out of the ground then either. But we got better at it, and the price became affordable. That dynamic will always repeat itself. The oil companies have had no need to invest in that technology up til now.

Some studies say that we are less than 5 years away from the Peak Oil and the optimistic ones say that it will be not before 2020 or 2030

As you can see in the definition, it dosen't mean that we will run out of oil but it will impose big challenges due the huge amount of infrastructures involved, that could mean 10-15 year to fully change to a new energy system even using all the resources needed. That time needs to be very well managed.

On the technologies involved: In the 80s the oil reserves where increased on behalf of the technology improvements that where going to allow to extract more oil from an specific well (closer to the theoretical max of 50%). After the US' peak (that already happened) it was found out that the technology allowed to increase the production ration but at the price to decrease the total use ratio. You have to have the correct goals for the technology that you want to develop.

JD
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 10:54 am

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 25):
At the moment you are not quite correct... other wise prices would be spiking very high.

Inventories are falling - the drawdown of stocks is masking possible shortfalls. As for prices, it is interesting that oil at $70/bbl is no longer considered "very high".

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 26):
There is as much oil under the Arctic ocean as there is in all of the Middle East

We hope? The area hasn't been explored in any detail, so that assertion has no basis in fact. Best guess is the region may contain about 1/4 of the yet-to-be-discovered reserves. Then there's the cost of production to consider.

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 26):
The Middle East is actually becoming dry after 60 years of pumping

The Middle East may be reaching peak production, but they are decades away from running dry.

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 26):
3/4 of the world is covered by water. The oceans of the world have barely been touched

Very few people believe that oil will be found beyond the continental shelves. Only advocates of abiogenic petroleum theory would argue otherwise. That means that about 2/3 of the Earth (undersea) can be excluded as a source of petroleum.

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 26):
especially the North Sea

Wrong. North Sea production peaked in 1999 and is now in steep decline. It was nice while it lasted.

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 26):
recently a huge find in the Gulf of Mexico was announced

That "huge find" is estimated between 3 and 15 billion barrels, including natural gas as oil equivalent. Sounds big...but it's really not, especially compared to Saudi Arabia's proven reserves of 250 billion barrels. Also consider that that was the only major find in the last decade. Anything left to be found now is almost certain to be smaller than that.

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 26):
Add them all up, and you have probable reserves that exceed anything in Saudi Arabia

Ummmm...no, you don't. It's not even close. no 

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 26):
the United States has the largest known concentration of oil shale in the world, and holds an estimated 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil, albeit at higher prices

Let's not dismiss the "higher prices" so easily. That is the problem...higher energy costs effect absolutely everything else in the economy. Oil goes up, so ethanol goes up, so corn goes up, and milk goes up. You are not only going to pay more for gas, you will pay more for everything. There will be less money in your pocket to pay for a plane ticket, and that ticket will also be more expensive...putting it further out of reach for many who today take flying for granted.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 27):
I was born in the 70s, and the same exact thing was being said 30 years ago. We wouldn't make it out of the next decade.

Overheated statements in the past shouldn't dissuade us from taking an objective look at these issues. Nor should overheated statements in the present. It's supremely dangerous to assume that the future will look like the past and that endless new reserves of easy oil will be found. We can't deny that there is a finite amount of cheap oil on the planet, so we had best be certain that we know when that end will be reached. At present, the assertion that we are not at the peak is largely based on faith in the future rather than on proven oil reserves.
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
planemaker
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 11:03 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 28):
Awww... you're no fun!

I know... I can be such a killjoy at times! Big grin

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 28):
Although, I disagree about feeding an engine from the aircraft boundary layer!

Ah... trade-offs, trade-offs... they looked at podded as well...

The impact of inlet loss on engine performance

With embedded engines the intakes can employ
boundary layer ingestion (BLI) or boundary layer
diversion (BLD). With boundary layer diversion, the nonuniform
airframe boundary layer air upstream of the
intake is prevented from entering the engine by some
geometrical feature or device. With boundary layer
ingestion, the airframe boundary layer is intentionally
drawn into the intake in order to reduce the fuel
consumption required. In both cases, embedding the
engines leads to extra frictional losses approaching the
engine because the shape of the inlet is more complex,
typically an S-shaped duct (see figure 5).

The performance of an intake is quantified by its
pressure recovery, which is the ratio of the total pressure
at the fan-face to that at entry to the inlet, p02/p01. A value
of 0.995 would be typical for a podded engine intake at
cruise, whereas the value for an S-duct type inlet will be
closer to 0.95, see [15]. A preliminary computational
study of S-shaped inlets for the Silent Aircraft estimated
that the pressure recovery would be about 0.96 with BLD
and 0.94 if the effects of BLI were included.

The full paper can be found here: http://silentaircraft.org/object/download/1928/doc/ISABE_2005_1164.pdf

Enjoy!  Smile

The engine config is unique...

The aircraft has three novel engines - the engine type is called GRANTA – 3401. Each engine has a single core, driving three high capacity low speed fans. This distributed propulsion system is designed to ingest the boundary layer on the aircraft centrebody which reduces the fuel burn. The multiple small fan design is easier to embed in the airframe, and leads to reduced weight and nacelle drag. It also enhances boundary layer ingestion, thereby improving fuel efficiency, and the low fan tip speeds lead to low noise. The engine has an ultra-high bypass ratio 18.3 at take-off for low jet noise, 12.3 at top of climb for good efficiency.

1. axial-radial compressor
2. extensive acoustics liners
3. variable area nozzle
4. low noise 5 stage Low Pressure Turbine
5. transmission system to transit power from Low Pressure Turbine to Fans
6. 3 high capacity, low speed Fans



Fan Diameter: 1.20 m
Engine Length: 2.46 m
Cruise Fuel Flow: 0.86 kg/s

Bare weight: 6,566 lbs / engine
Installed weight: 12,058 lbs / engine


Quoting Jdevora (Reply 29):
As you can see in the definition, it dosen't mean that we will run out of oil but it will impose big challenges due the huge amount of infrastructures involved, that could mean 10-15 year to fully change to a new energy system even using all the resources needed. That time needs to be very well managed.

That is why we are going to see plug-in hybrids by 2010 at the latest. Toyota has a protoype on the road now in Japan and 2 more will be in the California shortly. And by 2015 we will should see V2G hybrids... already Google.org is funding research and demo'd a prototype a couple of weeks ago.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 30):
As for prices, it is interesting that oil at $70/bbl is no longer considered "very high".

At $70 it is still considerably less (adjusted for inflation) than the $25/bbl during the Carter oil crises... and as a % cost has less impact on the economy... that is why oil at $70 is not the economic drag that many predicted.  Smile
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
N231YE
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 11:07 am

Supposedly, we have already hit peak oil, according to a report not-too-long ago.

The future is with bio-fuels, but as stated, those will be expensive. Fortunately, as oil (or cheap oil) dwindles away, cost will rise, so will the production of bio-fuels/fuel efficient airplane, as oil consumption will decrease. The industry will adapt (as it currently is, look at the A350 and 787).
 
Mike89406
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 11:22 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 27):
Quoting Mike89406 (Reply 7):
Or does it lean towards Treehugger values?

+

Quoting Mike89406 (Reply 7):
the Sundance Channel

= ?

Well, just do the quick math there and make your own call.

I realized when I posted my response I would get the aforementioned response on my reply #7 Having said all of that I also mainly stressed having an open or objective mind. As I am not real keen on the actual facts concerning the oil industry.

It's good to learn what you can both sides of the story, the post below does sum up my thoughts on the subject meaning whether you believe in the stuff ot not there are some thought provoking ideas. I'm as conservative as they come and mentioning the tree hugger comments which I realized some of the ideas Sundance is based on I still found the show interesting. Does it mean I believe most of it or a certain % of the ideas presented?

Of course not, like I said earlier use open mindness while watching it to form my own opinions.

Quoting Mike89406 (Reply 7):
I suggest that people watch the show "Crude Awakening" which was shown on the Sundance Channel, and form you're own opinions. It did bring up some alarming things about oil and the industry and was thought provoking but is it all factual? Or does it lean towards Treehugger values? Thats my only concern.

I have to say whether or not you believe in this stuff global Warming etc. or you don't belive this show will open you're eyes to possible major pitfalls to the future of petroleum. Of course i watched it with an objective mind but learned some imprtant history as well.

Previews of Crude Awakening-

http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/04...en-episode-1-crude-awakening-revi/

http://groovygreen.com/groove/?p=1289

Just my 2 Cents....



Quoting Jdevora (Reply 29):
Some studies say that we are less than 5 years away from the Peak Oil and the optimistic ones say that it will be not before 2020 or 2030

As you can see in the definition, it doesn't mean that we will run out of oil but it will impose big challenges due the huge amount of infrastructures involved, that could mean 10-15 year to fully change to a new energy system even using all the resources needed. That time needs to be very well managed.

This was part of the info presented on Crude awakening and just what I was trying to stress, does it mean they're on the mark? No but you get the idea that we in the world depend way too much on petroleum and hypothetically what would happen if the industry fell apart? It brings up some interesting points, I'm not saying it will happen however the hangover effects could bring even a developed country like the US to its knees.

Scrutinize all you like but they are all opinions, and thats all I'm presenting.

I certainly don't know ball park figures or accurate statistics on the industry as there are many armchair analysts/ or bean counters better at the subject matter than myself.
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 11:30 am

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 31):
At $70 it is still considerably less (adjusted for inflation) than the $25/bbl during the Carter oil crises... and as a % cost has less impact on the economy... that is why oil at $70 is not the economic drag that many predicted

Correct, but the resilience of the economy today vs. the "stagflation" of the 1970's is remarkable.

Oil was above the long-term inflation-adjusted average through the 1970's, and was well below average in the 1990's. The relative effect on the world economy in those two periods is quite evident. Today oil stands at roughly double the average long-term price.

Up or down from here is the $64 trillion dollar question. smile 
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
Simps747
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 1:02 pm

I'm not too worried. As has been stated previously, the two factors that are really going to dictate oil prices and supply are availability to access, and production capacity. What we need is more refineries, and better ways to extract from the tar sands and deeper wells. The oil is there.
 
travellin'man
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 1:13 pm

The issue is not how close peak oil is or isn't. The issue is that our dependence on carbon based fuels is screwing up the environment in an ever increasing way, both in terms of global warming and pollution, and therefore our own sustainability is being called into question.

While energy is still relatively cheap, we need to devote as many resources as possible to researching and improving new sources of energy, because it will only become more expensive to do so in the future in every sense.

Part of the challenge with current alternative energy research is that it doesn't get enough funding. I read that out of every 20 grants the US Dept of Energy issues for energy research, 18 are for petroleum based research, and only 2 are for the rest, which includes nuclear power, always a tough issue. If we devoted more research, the viability of these alternative, non-carbon based fuels is going to increase dramatically. We can't expect companies, be they in aerospace or automotive or whatever, to do this in anything other than a reactive capacity; as long as the current supply is at least somewhat viable within their operational model, which it is, they will keep using what they get. Government funding for research, whether through civilian or military channels, has to lead the way to help spur innovation. I don't doubt that we have the ability to come up with great stuff, but we sure seem to lack the motivation to move on it faster.

So the issue is not how soon are we going to run out of oil as much as, how soon are we going to get off oil for many, if not most of our energy needs?
It is not enough to be rude; one must also be incorrect.
 
hmmmm...
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 1:29 pm

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 30):
Let's not dismiss the "higher prices" so easily. That is the problem...higher energy costs effect absolutely everything else in the economy. Oil goes up, so ethanol goes up, so corn goes up, and milk goes up. You are not only going to pay more for gas, you will pay more for everything. There will be less money in your pocket to pay for a plane ticket, and that ticket will also be more expensive...putting it further out of reach for many who today take flying for granted.

This is how economies function. Look at the huge increase in gas prices the last 7 years. Yet at the same time, the economy has been going from strength to strength, with no decrease in demand for anything. The stock market is at record highs, at it got there during this huge increase in the price of oil. In fact, the sale of SUVs and minivans continues apace, and has been the money maker for the auto manufacturers during these last few years. Even with these supposedly high prices, people still love their gas guzzlers, so I am not too pessimistic about the demand for milk and plane tickets. Many so-called experts predicted the economy could never survive $75 dollar a barrel oil. They said it would ruin us. That was 10 years ago. Not only has it not ruined us, but just the opposite seems to have happened.

So if we have to pay more for oil that lies deeper in the earth, the economy absorbs that as it expands. It is not a zero-sum game. The world is full of oil and gas, and while we should conserve, and drive more fuel efficient vehicles, any "report" or "study" that warns of running out of oil anytime this century, is classic chicken little nonsense. The fact is there are many "experts" who are hostile to the petroleum industry, and to the very idea of burning carbon-based fuels. For them, it will always be a case of us being advised to take an wind-powered monorail to work because " we are on the cusp of running out of oil".
An optimist robs himself of the joy of being pleasantly surprised
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 1:36 pm

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 31):
The engine config is unique...

Interesting. It looks to be an interesting design... For that configuration there could be some remarkable benefits. However, before that complicated of a gearing can be implemented, let's see a GTF first!  bigthumbsup 

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 31):

At $70 it is still considerably less (adjusted for inflation) than the $25/bbl during the Carter oil crises... and as a % cost has less impact on the economy... that is why oil at $70 is not the economic drag that many predicted.

Good point. We also are under-reporting inflation versus back then.

Quoting N231YE (Reply 32):
The industry will adapt (as it currently is, look at the A350 and 787).

Yes, we will adapt. As you note soon to be introduced airframes into the fleet. I admit to having fun living in the future world.  Wink

Quoting Travellin'man (Reply 36):
Part of the challenge with current alternative energy research is that it doesn't get enough funding.

True, but private research is far more effective. Government funding can drive away private funding. So there is a balance... When companies react when things get bad... they react quickly.  Smile

Lightsaber
"They did not know it was impossible, so they did it!" - Mark Twain
 
redflyer
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 1:41 pm

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 17):
Not really...current technology can, at best, get about 25% of the oil out of any particular resevoir. Obviously, that will go up with technology, but it's an asymptotic problem so we'll never be able to extract all of the oil that's in the ground.

 checkmark 
You're absolutely right and I did not mean to infer that we'll have acess to all of the Earth's oil. Even with the best of technologies, we'll be able to extract only a small percentage of it. But even that will leave us with access to plentiful oil for decades to come.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 27):
I was born in the 70s, and the same exact thing was being said 30 years ago. We wouldn't make it out of the next decade.

Then, 10 years later, we experienced some of the cheapest oil prices EVER, with gas prices in late 80s dollars of 80 cents a gallon.

Funny how in 10 years all those concerns went away for a while.

Great insight, Ikramerica. I have my own similar one. I remember during the Arab Oil Embargo back in 1973, our school principle spoke of a NYT article that said the world's proven reserves contained enough oil for 25 more years of production. It left everyone with the impression that by the time we were well into adulthood, we would be living in a world without oil and life would be completely different (for better or worse).

34 years later, we're sitting on enough proven reserves to last us for another 50 years. In those ensuing 34 years, we've not only discovered (or proven) more oil reserves, but we've also become more efficient at refining it and using it despite the fact that global consumption has more than doubled.
My other home is in the sky inside my Piper Cherokee 180.
 
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 1:44 pm

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 31):
Ah... trade-offs, trade-offs... they looked at podded as well...

Just a nitpick, they stick to theoretical. A bounda ry layer ingestion has far worse performance than a normal inlet (say compared to the L1011 which pulls air outside of the boundary layer but goes into an S-duct). Why? The asymmetry of airflow into the gas turbine reduces the surge margin. On older engines, with their high surge margins, that didn't matter. But in newer designs where the stators more actively control surge margin (at the cost of fuel efficiency), this would be felt more. Also, the more asymmetrical the inlet flow, the greater the tip clearances required to allow for engine distortions due to imbalances. Now single isle engines tend to have high tip clearances to minimize takeoff wear and tear. But in high-bypass designs, its all about fuel efficiency... So I'm more in favor of podded.

Between theoretical and real world... there are compromises too.  Wink

Lightsaber
"They did not know it was impossible, so they did it!" - Mark Twain
 
planemaker
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 4:16 pm

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 34):
Up or down from here is the $64 trillion dollar question.

Here is an interesting graph...




Here is a good look at the problem...
http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2006/fueling.america/interactive/popup.world.top.10/world.oil.consumers.gif

http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2006/fueling.america/interactive/popup.us.imports/us.imports.oil.gif

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Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
tdscanuck
Posts: 8572
Joined: Wed Jan 11, 2006 7:25 am

RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 6:47 pm

Quoting Cobra27 (Reply 16):
I am sure that all modes of transportation in the future will use electric motors, maybe linear classic rotor to turn the fan. they are highly efficient and the most reliable and cheap to produce,quiet, can rev up quickly... the trick is only to store enough electricity.

There's another trick...weight. Electric motors are ferociously heavy with today's technology. Superconductors will help, but we're a long way from a weight-competitive electrical alternative to a gas turbine.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 30):

That "huge find" is estimated between 3 and 15 billion barrels, including natural gas as oil equivalent. Sounds big...but it's really not, especially compared to Saudi Arabia's proven reserves of 250 billion barrels. Also consider that that was the only major find in the last decade.

Saudi Arabia's 250 billion barrels aren't all in one reservoir, they're spread out across hundreds, just like the finds in the Gulf of Mexico. I've been personally involved in at least four 1+billion bbl finds in the last decade in the Gulf.

Tom
 
Joni
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 8:58 pm

Quoting MMEPHX (Reply 11):

1) too expensive to extract oil and that the market won't pay. $250/barrel anyone?
2) It will take more energy to extract than the energy contained in the extracted oil
3) We'll actually run out completely (has to eventually but that could be hundreds or thousands of years away)

I think we can define the point where we've run out of oil as the point where it takes more than one barrel to extract one barrel from the ground. Or, if extracting the barrel costs over a thousand euros using other energy forms.

Quoting InnocuousFox (Reply 14):

However, as a note: 90% of the available oil is held by state-run companies (e.g. Venezuela, Mexico, Saudi Arabia). Often, as is the case with Mexico, the capacity is barely being touched because of gross inefficiencies with the state-run bureaucracy.

There are recognized signs that these state enterprises (especially the Saudis) have in fact dramatically exaggerated their remaining oil reserves.

Anyhow, there are other factors at work as well: the EU has decided to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by 20% by 2020 and the US will likely undertake a similar constraint after the next presidential elections there.
 
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sebolino
Posts: 3495
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 9:27 pm

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 1):
It's estimated that prior to the industrial revolution, the Earth contained the equivalent of 12 trillion barrels of oil. For the past 100 years, we've consumed about 1 trillion of that total. It's estimated that in the next 50 years we'll consume another 1 trillion. That leaves 10 trillion left to be extracted. I'm not worried about running out of Jet A.

This a big mistake.
Oil is extracted only when the pressure is high enough. It's why the vast majority of the oil conatined in the earth will never be extracted, it would cost way too much.
When an oil field is considered dry, it still contains an enormous amount of oil, but without enough pression to get out.

The reserves of usable oil, are much much lower than you think.
 
jfk787nyc
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 9:31 pm

Go invest in OIL Stocks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 11:23 pm

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 37):
Look at the huge increase in gas prices the last 7 years.

As Planemaker has pointed out, when you adjust for inflation oil/gasoline prices are not even at an all-time high. My observation is that people (in the US) feel pressured by today's prices, but those prices haven't truly spiked yet. We were spoiled by historically low prices in the 90's. If $3/gal gas makes people cringe today, what happens in the future when prices actually do surpass historic highs?

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 37):
at the same time, the economy has been going from strength to strength, with no decrease in demand for anything.

The people at WalMart would disagree. I agree that the economy has been remarkably resilient, but as I said above my feeling is the test hasn't even come yet.

Quoting Hmmmm... (Reply 37):
Many so-called experts predicted the economy could never survive $75 dollar a barrel oil. They said it would ruin us. That was 10 years ago. Not only has it not ruined us, but just the opposite seems to have happened.

This is a fallacious argument, and you are not alone in making it. Incorrect predictions in the past tell us NOTHING about predictions being made in the present. Different people working with different facts in different times. Oil prices cannot go ever upward without consequences to the world economy - that's an inarguable fact. The question is how fast and how high can prices rise without upsetting growth too much?

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 39):
Great insight, Ikramerica. I have my own similar one. I remember during the Arab Oil Embargo back in 1973, our school principle spoke of a NYT article that said the world's proven reserves contained enough oil for 25 more years of production. It left everyone with the impression that by the time we were well into adulthood, we would be living in a world without oil and life would be completely different (for better or worse).

Ditto what I said above. Once upon a time I played some numbers in the lotto and didn't win, therefore those numbers are no good and I'll never play them again. The logic is entirely faulty. Your principal didn't understand that proven reserves are not a measure of all oil left to be recovered, so his predictions were worthless.

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 42):
Saudi Arabia's 250 billion barrels aren't all in one reservoir, they're spread out across hundreds, just like the finds in the Gulf of Mexico. I've

No, that's misleading. The vast majority of Saudi production comes from ONE reservoir, the Ghawar, which accounts for 55-60% of their total. 90% of Saudi production comes from just five very large fields. The remaining fields, and there are about 300 of them, are all very much smaller. There is no replacement for the Ghawar - when that field peaks then total Saudi production will inevitably decline. They may be able to sustain a plateau level of production by opening large numbers of those smaller fields (some pessimists says that's what's happening right now) but costs will rise and volumes will fall. The question is when, not if. worried 
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
EA772LR
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Fri Aug 24, 2007 11:45 pm

Quoting Sparklehorse12 (Reply 2):
Oil companies are getting rich and funding very elaborate if not deceiptful campaigns to make you think there is a shortage....they themselves are restricting supply.

 checkmark  so true.

Quoting LaminarFlow (Reply 3):
Pressure fosters ingenuity.

 checkmark  this also is very true.

I think while oil may be much more abundant in some hard-to-reach areas geographically, I think just as we're being responsible with build much more 'environmentally friendly' jet engines, we need to be equally as delicate to the environment.
We often judge others by their actions, but ourselves by our intentions.
 
planemaker
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sat Aug 25, 2007 2:31 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 46):
This is a fallacious argument, and you are not alone in making it. Incorrect predictions in the past tell us NOTHING about predictions being made in the present. Different people working with different facts in different times. Oil prices cannot go ever upward without consequences to the world economy - that's an inarguable fact.

I agree. Most people look at the numbers out of context and don't understand the underlying facts.

As we have both pointed out, real oil prices are not even at an all-time high but on the other hand, we have reduced our energy intensity (as I had already pointed out).

Unfortunately, efforts to keep up the rate of improvement tailed off after the intial oil shocks of the 70's due to politics and big business. But in the last few years there has been an uptick in conservation and efficiency that will continue. because of CO2 emmisions. One just has to look at the airlines myriad efforts to trim fuel use as an example of how industry has responded to the price increase of oil.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 46):
The question is how fast and how high can prices rise without upsetting growth too much?

Short term... I agree but perhaps in 5 years the opposite could also be asked... How fast and how low can prices drop?

The real problem in oil consumption is the transport sector and, as I pointed out earlier, large improvements in efficiency are on their way in the next 5-10 years that would have a very large impact... possibly a disproportionate impact on oil price. Just a few examples....

- Plug-in hybrids
- V2G hybrids

Over the next 5-10 years, increased energy efficiency, coupled with increasing use of bio-fuels and alternative energy will lead to a slowing down in the rate of oil consumption and then, eventually, decrease the oil consumption rate. The net effect is that oil prices will not spike but will have a more gradual rise followed by a levelling off and then, possibly, a drop.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
hmmmm...
Posts: 1959
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RE: Global Oil Reserves And The Future Of Aviation

Sat Aug 25, 2007 5:36 am

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 46):
If $3/gal gas makes people cringe today, what happens in the future when prices actually do surpass historic highs?

People are not cringing. They complain but they consume anyway, which is the psychology of the market, as I said. For people to stop buying gas guzzling cars, you would first have to have an oil embargo like in '73, and even then, people bought and drove large cars anyway. My father bought an Olds 88 that year. It continued to run just fine even without OPEC oil.



Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 46):
This is a fallacious argument, and you are not alone in making it. Incorrect predictions in the past tell us NOTHING about predictions being made in the present. Different people working with different facts in different times.

Different times and different facts? A fact is a fact. Some scare mongers said we could not survive on $75 a barrel oil. We are doing just fine on it, just like before when it was $50 or $35.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 46):
Oil prices cannot go ever upward without consequences to the world economy -

That is obvious. But the same can be said for the price of anything that we need. The question is should we worry about some pending critical shortage of oil at prices that we can afford? Answer: No. There is lots of oil to be had, in many forms, in a myriad of locations throughout the world. As this relates to air travel, my prediction is that there will be huge growth in the air travel industry for this century.
An optimist robs himself of the joy of being pleasantly surprised