keesje
Posts: 8745
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 8:39 am

Could Lufthansa have included in their 747-8 contract the option of converting their 747-8i into 747-8F before a certain point in time ("point of no return") ?

Lufthansa operates 19 MD11F´s that could be sold and replaced by 747-8Fs, more suitable for the long Asian routes were cargo is booming, competition is building up fast (Cargolux, the Chinese, Russians) and Lufthansa Cargo is ambitious.

IMO it could become a win-win option for both LH and Boeing if market responds to the 747-8i doesn´t improve.

Boeing might become more then willing to free up skilled engineering for more profitable projects such as 777 upgrade, 787-10, Y1, Y3, IDS projects, KC767, LRJ  Wink

Emirates and ILFC too converted their A380F´s into passenger versions, after it became clear Airbus would delay the -F to free up engineering resources for the A380 passenger.

http://www.airbus.com/store/photolibrary/EVENTS/SIGNATURE/att00001549/media_object_image_lowres_709X473_customersILFC7D7A8.jpg

It has been done before, also by Boeing and it´s customers. At some point it might even cause some hidden hurrays in Seattle..

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
User avatar
ER757
Posts: 2453
Joined: Tue May 10, 2005 10:16 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 8:45 am

I suppose they could, but without actually seeing the contract obviously can't say for sure. I imagine LH would only do so if Boeing scrapped the -i altogether. The ball is in Boeing's court IMO. For the record, I don't see it happening. I believe they will build the -i and deliver to LH as planned (among others).
 
redflyer
Posts: 3882
Joined: Thu Feb 24, 2005 3:30 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 8:48 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Could Lufthansa have included in their 747-8 contract the option of converting their 747-8i into 747-8F before a certain point in time ("point of no return") ?

Why do I get the impression you're just trying to stir the pot, Keesje, by implying that LH might want to convert their 8i's if there is no market for them?

But to answer your question, I think they could as long as unique 8i parts for their ships haven't been fabricated yet by Boeing suppliers. In the end, it might be easier to just convert them to freighters after delivery.

Kind of like what SQ might want to consider doing with their A380's if they can't fill them profitably  Wink
My other home is in the sky inside my Piper Cherokee 180.
 
JTR
Posts: 77
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2007 3:45 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 8:52 am

I think a BA 748i order (>10 orders) will spur demand for the model from other undecided carriers. I do, however, see a greater market for the F version than the i.
 
TKV
Posts: 368
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:59 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:29 am

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 2):
Why do I get the impression you're just trying to stir the pot, Keesje, by implying that LH might want to convert their 8i's if there is no market for them?

 checkmark 

Keesje: Your thread would be by far more logical if you had waited for a negative decision of BA !! Or do you think that they are very concerned what would happen to poor LH which made the mistake to buy the -i, if they do not order the -i themselves ?? And that if BA read your idea on a-net, they would stop worrying and order A380 free of remorse ?? Smile  Wink

Keesje: this is a rare moment when I try to be funny, so be not offended

cordially
TKV
 
flyabr
Posts: 752
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2003 11:42 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:50 am

actually, i suspect LH will order additional 748s...and they'll be freighters to go along with their intercontinentals. keesje, you really need to let go of this obsession you have with the 748i...  Smile
 
JoFMO
Posts: 1840
Joined: Wed Jul 14, 2004 1:55 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 10:11 am

I would expect such a clause in the contract. But even if not, I could see a situation coming where both parties could be quite happy to change the -i into freighters.

I don't think LH would be too happy to fly a 'bastard child' around that everybody else refuses.
 
KFLLCFII
Posts: 3177
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:08 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 10:15 am

So what's the breakeven point for the -i?
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
bok269
Posts: 1568
Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 10:19 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:01 am

We are still 3 years out of EIS for the i. Once we get closer, you'll see orders pick up. The original 744s are approaching 20 years old and many airlines will need to replace them. Many may find the A380 too big, and even if they don't, may find room for them as well. I think BA will order a combo. I can see CX, CI, and the like going for the 748i. LH got rid ofthe 742Fs (I think there may be one left). If they wanted the larger planes, they probably would have had a direct replacement in line sooner. And who knows, maybe youll see the 77Fs replace the M11s.
"Reality is wrong, dreams are for real." -Tupac
 
flyabr
Posts: 752
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2003 11:42 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:36 am

Quoting KFLLCFII (Reply 7):
So what's the breakeven point for the -i?

wouldn't the more pertinent ? be what is the break even point for the entire 748 program??

through july boeing had 90 orders total for both versions of the 748...and the aircraft still has a ways to go before EIS. the A380 is getting close to EIS and only has 165 firmed up. the 748 is doing just fine thank you!
 
AirplaneFan
Posts: 196
Joined: Wed Nov 22, 2006 5:56 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:45 am

Quoting KFLLCFII (Reply 7):
So what's the breakeven point for the -i?

Boeing 747-8_ _ Intercontinental!!

Ok some of you members are going to ask, "What do the two under scores after number 8 mean?", well thats where the Boeing Customer Code belongs. For example BA's Boeing, not Airbus, customer code is 36, so in this case if BA decides to order the Boeing 747-8, which I hope they do, their Boeing 747-8's will be Boeing 747-836.
I GOT YOUR SIX
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23074
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:49 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Could Lufthansa have included in their 747-8 contract the option of converting their 747-8i into 747-8F before a certain point in time ("point of no return") ?

They don't need a contract to do it. They can reject the plane all the way up to the time it's rolled over to the Delivery Center for the final ceremony if they're willing to lose all the monies they have deposited towards it so far.

Quoting JoFMO (Reply 6):
I don't think LH would be too happy to fly a 'bastard child' around that everybody else refuses.

That does not seem to have caused QF any grief with their six "bastard" 747-400ERs... If it's the right plane for the job, it's the right plane for the job.

I don't see LH taking the 747-8I on a whim. Especially 20 of them. They see a role for that type in their fleet and if they're worried about support, sign a "GoldCare-type" package with Boeing and force them to support it for the duration.
 
baron95
Posts: 1106
Joined: Thu May 25, 2006 10:19 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:52 am

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Could Lufthansa have included in their 747-8 contract the option of converting their 747-8i into 747-8F before a certain point in time ("point of no return") ?

Of course they could and most likely did. Most (if not all) tier 1 Boeing customers can substitute models in the same family (e.g. Delta converting 777-200ERs into 777-200LRs), alter delivery schedules, etc. There are negotiated fees and prices for these things. Even if that were not in the contract, if circumstances dictated an order change in the future, Boeing would certainly work with LH to arrive at a fair resolution for the conversion.

So what?

You seem to imply that a) Boeing is not that serious about the 748-I and b) LH is not quite sure that they want it. We have two of the largest and most successful companies in their field entering into a multi-billion dollar contract without really being sure of it.

Yeah, right!!!!
Killer Fleet: E190, 737-900ER, 777-300ER
 
KFLLCFII
Posts: 3177
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 7:08 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:03 pm

Quoting AirplaneFan (Reply 10):


Quoting KFLLCFII:

So what's the breakeven point for the -i?

Boeing 747-8_ _ Intercontinental!!

Ok some of you members are going to ask, "What do the two under scores after number 8 mean?", well thats where the Boeing Customer Code belongs. For example BA's Boeing, not Airbus, customer code is 36, so in this case if BA decides to order the Boeing 747-8, which I hope they do, their Boeing 747-8's will be Boeing 747-836.

Thanks, I know how Boeing customer codes work.  Wink

What I was asking was, what is the breakeven point for the -Intercontinental? How many need to be sold to make up for the R&D costs of the airframe update?

Would the 25 currently on the books suffice, or would they theoretically have to double that? Or triple it?...
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
bok269
Posts: 1568
Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 10:19 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:05 pm

Quoting AirplaneFan (Reply 10):
Ok some of you members are going to ask, "What do the two under scores after number 8 mean?", well thats where the Boeing Customer Code belongs. For example BA's Boeing, not Airbus, customer code is 36, so in this case if BA decides to order the Boeing 747-8, which I hope they do, their Boeing 747-8's will be Boeing 747-836.

Remember that the generic codes for Boeings are only going to be 1 digit. 787-9, 747-8, etc.
"Reality is wrong, dreams are for real." -Tupac
 
grantcv
Posts: 410
Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2005 1:28 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 12:32 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Could Lufthansa have included in their 747-8 contract the option of converting their 747-8i into 747-8F before a certain point in time ("point of no return") ?

What's the point of this thread other than to try and create the impression that the 748-i will never be a success?
 
NWA742
Posts: 4505
Joined: Sat Feb 16, 2002 11:35 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:21 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Emirates and ILFC too converted their A380F´s into passenger versions, after it became clear Airbus would delay the -F to free up engineering resources for the A380 passenger.

Oh wait, you must mean after it became clear to them and their customers that the A380F was a complete disaster of a program, a freighter that would have failed horribly against the competition in terms of cost and efficiency, and they decided to kill it?

You're always so happy to cruise along with the Airbus PR team, aren't you?






-NWA742

[Edited 2007-08-28 06:30:13]
Some people are like slinkies - not good for anything, but they bring a smile to your face when pushed down the stairs
 
PanHAM
Posts: 8533
Joined: Fri May 06, 2005 6:44 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 2:30 pm

Technically, Lufthansa and Lufthansa Cargo are separate companies. That would not be a hurdle concerning Boeing.

The problem is that Lufthansa Cargo at the moment does not have the ressources to finance 20 747-8F's and the LH policy is, that each company oin the Aviation Concern must be self sutainable. The resonsibilty for operating 747 freighters may go to Jade Cargo and possibly others in the Concern and LH Cargo may buy the 777F eventually to replace the MD11s. But that is another story and has been discussed before.

Fact is, that LH needs the 747-8i for replacement of the older 744s, what reason should they have to change or cancel the order? The -8i is a long term project for Boeing as well and will see more orders.
powered by Eierlikör
 
iwok
Posts: 979
Joined: Wed Jan 26, 2005 2:35 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 3:48 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Could Lufthansa have included in their 747-8 contract the option of converting their 747-8i into 747-8F before a certain point in time ("point of no return") ?

 rotfl  Keesje my man, you are one of the funniest guys on these boards. The 748 has long ago sold enough to make break even, and so Boeing can price them the way they want to.

Since the 747 has outsold the 380 since they've both been for sale, I think Boeing is not sweating it too much.

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Emirates and ILFC too converted their A380F´s into passenger versions, after it became clear Airbus would delay the -F to free up engineering resources for the A380 passenger.

 rotfl   rotfl  Classic! I suggest you watch the movie "Thank you for smoking"; the lead character reminds me of you.

Keep it up. Maybe in 15 years, your wish that the 747 be killed will come true  Wink

iwok
 
JRDC930
Posts: 882
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2007 5:36 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 3:55 pm

While, id hate to see the 748I end up as a garbage scow (i.e. cargo), we must face facts; no one has indicated SERIOUS interest in the 748I besides LH, and Boeing, not comments from CEO's that are concretely positive, and it has even gotten the stigma of being obsolete.Add to it potential customers looking more seriously at the 380 as an alternative such as BA and CX, and the out look ain't good. I'm just going on a hunch, and i hope I'm wrong, (love the 748), but id say the way things look now, LH will likely convert.  Sad

Just an observational opinion, and my 2 cents.
U.S. Legacy carriers,STILL leaders in lowering industry standards...
 
PADSpot
Posts: 1637
Joined: Sat Jan 15, 2005 11:31 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 3:57 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Could Lufthansa have included in their 747-8 contract the option of converting their 747-8i into 747-8F before a certain point in time ("point of no return") ?

It has already been mentioned that LH intends to convert some of their B744 to freighters once the B748 arrive. So I can't see them them ordering or converting B748F. They might order additional B748 in some time in the future, but as long as sufficient production slots are available there is no need to hurry ...
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 4:11 pm

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 2):
Why do I get the impression you're just trying to stir the pot, Keesje, by implying that LH might want to convert their 8i's if there is no market for them?

 checkmark 
For some price unknown to us, LH could convert their WhaleJet orders into A350 orders. Given the evidence available today, both scenarios seem about equally unlikely.
 
cobra27
Posts: 939
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 6:57 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F

Tue Aug 28, 2007 4:14 pm

Quoting JTR (Reply 3):
I think a BA 748i order (>10 orders) will spur demand for the model from other undecided carriers. I do, however, see a greater market for the F version than the i.

So other carriers will order 748 just because BA did? This is not kindergarden you know
 
keesje
Posts: 8745
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 6:03 pm

Quoting JRDC930 (Reply 21):
While, id hate to see the 748I end up as a garbage scow (i.e. cargo), we must face facts; no one has indicated SERIOUS interest in the 748I besides LH, and Boeing, not comments from CEO's that are concretely positive, and it has even gotten the stigma of being obsolete.Add to it potential customers looking more seriously at the 380 as an alternative such as BA and CX, and the out look ain't good. I'm just going on a hunch, and i hope I'm wrong, (love the 748), but id say the way things look now, LH will likely convert

I to would love the 747 fly on for years. I have done large projects on it & flown it dozens of times on the couzy upperdeck. Knowing Boeing first hand I am almost sure they have a smart back-up plan / time line if the 747-8i doesn´t become a seller. It would make the 747-8 line so much more efficient & reduce the overall program cost if they could focus on just the freighter. The Randy´s PR machine isn´t reflecting the board room agenda.

I think many of the childsh posts above ignore the rationality of Boeing on matters like these. If they can spend there money better, they´ll do it just like Airbus did on the A380F.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
EI321
Posts: 4788
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 6:23 pm

Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Could Lufthansa have included in their 747-8 contract the option of converting their 747-8i into 747-8F before a certain point in time ("point of no return") ?

LH wont want to take the 747-8i if they are the only operator of the type.

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 2):
Quoting Keesje (Thread starter):
Could Lufthansa have included in their 747-8 contract the option of converting their 747-8i into 747-8F before a certain point in time ("point of no return") ?

Why do I get the impression you're just trying to stir the pot, Keesje, by implying that LH might want to convert their 8i's if there is no market for them?

Its a simple economic decision. Its unlikely that they will want an aircraft that no other airline has. We will have to see what BA order. On a positive note, the 747-8F would make a great replacement for their MD11F's.
 
CHRISBA777ER
Posts: 3715
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2001 12:12 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 7:02 pm

You guys seriously need to chill out - Keesje asked a pertinent and reasonable question and nobody has given him a decent answer - you all seem to prefer to slate him for "stirring the pot" - withe all due respect, this thread is a lot more pertinent and relevent than many of the Cheerleader thread starters.

Give him a break - he's presented a reasoned, balanced, intelligent argument and is seeking constructive discussion. He hasnt slated the plane or made outrageous claims about it - its a fair question and If you dont want to talk about it, leave the thread and leave it to people who do.

Right.

Will LH convert their 748I orders to F's? I think China Airlines, Northwest, Cathay Pacific, JAL, and British Airways are where the money is as regards future orders - potentially there are 100+ frames there, but there could be 0 - no way of telling yet. One assumes LH will not want an orphan fleet but this may be a dodgy assumption - as long as LH has the training and Boeing can provide spare parts theres no reason why they wouldnt, but thats a different argument.

Do I think LH cargo will end up operating the 747-8F? Yes.
Could those frames come from LH mainline as converted -8Is? Possible.
Is it more likely that this will happen if the 8I doesnt get any more orders in the next 12 months? - Yes.
Do LH know what they are doing? Yes.
Would they have envisaged the possibility of their 8I order being one of a small pool when they placed the order? Yes.
Is Boeing likely to have priced the initial frames accordingly? Yes, possibly.

The major question is:

Will the 8I survive as a project if LH convert their orders to Fs? - Yes. Nothing to see here. Move on.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23074
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:33 pm

Quoting Baron95 (Reply 12):
You seem to imply that a) Boeing is not that serious about the 748-I and b) LH is not quite sure that they want it. We have two of the largest and most successful companies in their field entering into a multi-billion dollar contract without really being sure of it.

To be fair, that charge has been leveled against the A380 time and again on here for years.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 26):
LH wont want to take the 747-8i if they are the only operator of the type.

Why? LH has operated 747s for decades. It's not like the 747-8I is a brand-new aircraft family. And the sales success of the 747-8F will ensure that parts remain available for the 747-8I.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 27):
You guys seriously need to chill out - Keesje asked a pertinent and reasonable question and nobody has given him a decent answer...

I take exception to that statement, sir.  Smile

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 27):
Will the 8I survive as a project if LH convert their orders to Fs? - Yes. Nothing to see here. Move on.

True. If nothing else, Boeing can use the four 747BBJs to complete the certification process for the 747-8I even if LH cancels/converts their order and no other carrier chooses the model before it's time to start production and certification.
 
Danny
Posts: 3714
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2002 3:44 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:41 pm

It all depends if Boeing can find more customers for 748i soon. If not, the passenger version may never be built and LH can even get compensation for taking freighter instead of pax one they ordered.
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23074
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F

Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:52 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 29):
It all depends if Boeing can find more customers for 748i soon. If not, the passenger version may never be built and LH can even get compensation for taking freighter instead of pax one they ordered.

24 frames should be enough incentive for Boeing to build it, even if the program would be in the red at that time. Once LH has it in service, it will provide "real-world" data that other carriers can use down the road when determining their own 400+ seat fleet replacement and expansion plans.
 
CHRISBA777ER
Posts: 3715
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2001 12:12 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 9:53 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 27):
You guys seriously need to chill out - Keesje asked a pertinent and reasonable question and nobody has given him a decent answer...

I take exception to that statement, sir.

Apologies - your reasoned and well-thought out response was drowned in the cacophony of AvB guff from your countrymen. My comments above were directed more toward Grantcv, FlyABR, Iwok, and Silentbob.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 28):
Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 27):
Will the 8I survive as a project if LH convert their orders to Fs? - Yes. Nothing to see here. Move on.

True. If nothing else, Boeing can use the four 747BBJs to complete the certification process for the 747-8I even if LH cancels/converts their order and no other carrier chooses the model before it's time to start production and certification.

Correct, although I still dont think it will come to that. I would suggest AI, PK, CA, MU, NZ, and SV all have a respectable shout to shoehorn the 8I into their fleets over and above the big four I mentioned earlier. Judgements on the 8I must be suspended until its market can be seen to have chosen one way or the other - ie: she will be defined by who buys her, not by what she can do. Since nobody apart from a bunch of know-nothing part-timer cowboys from Germany  Wink have ordered her yet we cant really make judgements yet.

Fact is the platform will be a success because of the F version and the pax version doesnt need to sell in huge numbers to be a success.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
Danny
Posts: 3714
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2002 3:44 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 10:02 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 30):
24 frames should be enough incentive for Boeing to build it,

I seriously doubt it.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 30):
Once LH has it in service, it will provide "real-world" data that other carriers can use down the road when determining their own 400+ seat fleet replacement and expansion plans.

LH already says it has inferior CASM to the A380 admitting they ordered it because of rock bottom price and freighter option as suggested by Kesje.
 
deltadc9
Posts: 2788
Joined: Fri Apr 14, 2006 10:00 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 10:15 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 32):
LH already says it has inferior CASM to the A380 admitting they ordered it because of rock bottom price and freighter option as suggested by Kesje.

Source please.
Dont take life too seriously because you will never get out of it alive - Bugs Bunny
 
User avatar
distanthorizon
Posts: 207
Joined: Sun Oct 30, 2005 4:48 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:09 pm

I really can not understand why can´t be discussed the question posed by Keeje, even if it means arguing about a possible failure of the 747-8 passenger program.

I don't think Keeje is hidding anything. If he wanted to discuss the difficulties of the program, he certainly could. And would. (what a shock!)

On the other hand, it is pretty deplorable that some Boeing cheerleaders do not tolerate discussing anything that does no look pretty for Boeing colors. This kind of childish attitude is clearly degradating a-net forums.

As far as I am concerned, LH did most certainly protected themselves by assuring a way out option in the eventually the 474-8i passenger program fail - and YES, there is that possibility, considering that LH is the only costumer of the aircraft. (and please, do not simply argue with the "BA salvation order" or the "A380 bigger problems"...)

Those who doesn't want to even discuss this issue, please move on another thread (or another forum all-together)...

DH
Regards
Nelson SE
 
wcs
Posts: 180
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2007 4:55 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:31 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 27):
You guys seriously need to chill out - Keesje asked a pertinent and reasonable question and nobody has given him a decent answer - you all seem to prefer to slate him for "stirring the pot"



Quoting DistantHorizon (Reply 34):
I really can not understand why can´t be discussed the question posed by Keeje, even if it means arguing about a possible failure of the 747-8 passenger program

You guys have to realize that some subjects are more sensitive than others here. As a matter of fact, it’s very unpopular to exchange around Boeing’s current challenges, meaning 787 and 747-8i.

I usually stay away from that, and while I also wish the best for these projects it’s quite a deception to see the bias of some there  Sad
FLY SKYTEAM JETS
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23074
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:46 pm

Quoting Danny (Reply 32):


Quoting Stitch in Reply 30:
24 frames should be enough incentive for Boeing to build it.

I seriously doubt it.

Why?

If the 747-8I was the only model on offer, I would agree. But it isn't. And the 747-8F is the class of her...class...of freighter at the moment.

Quoting Danny (Reply 32):


Quoting Stitch in Reply 30:
Once LH has it in service, it will provide "real-world" data that other carriers can use down the road when determining their own 400+ seat fleet replacement and expansion plans.

LH already says it has inferior CASM to the A380.

LH has said the 747-8I burns a bit more fuel per passenger per 100km flown then the A380-800 in their respective LH configurations, but fuel costs alone do not determine CASM. Could you please point me to where LH has said such?

Quote:
(LH has also admitted) they ordered it because of rock bottom price and freighter option as suggested by Kesje.

Yet many folks who have knowledge of LH's operations say that 747-8Fs are unlikely in the near-term. And even if Boeing offered "rock bottom prices" (and while LH's pricing was excellent, if that is "rock bottom" then I wonder what you would call some of the latest Airbus deals...), one would think Airbus would match between more A388s and A346s just to keep the 747-8I out of LH's hands and move them to a pure Airbus passenger fleet.

So, again, I'd like to see where LH released a PR or statement on that...

Quoting WCS (Reply 35):
You guys have to realize that some subjects are more sensitive than others here. As a matter of fact, it's very unpopular to exchange around Boeing's current challenges, meaning 787 and 747-8i.

And, of course, any criticism of the A350 or A380 programs is of course not only allowed to flourish, but is actively encouraged by the addition of flashing red lights to the sides of each thread...  Yeah sure

I don't know why Airbus supporters like to keep playing the "Martyr card" when their side stirs the pot as much as Boeing's do - this thread being a perfect example...
 
User avatar
PM
Posts: 4821
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 5:05 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:50 pm

It almost beggars belief that Boeing won't sign up further customers for the 747-8i. EK have recently been mentioned and the usual suspects are still out there. But if September ends with a BA order for the A380 but no 748i order then Boeing salespeople are likely to be, let's say, disappointed.

So Keesje has a point. If the months slip by and Lufthansa are left sitting alone as the sole airline operator of the type, will they be (a) happy, (b) indifferent, (c) anxious? I don't really know. But I've never heard of airlines being pleased to operate 'oddities'.

The substantial (and certain to grow) market for 747-8Fs takes a good deal of the pressure off but I must admit that I have also speculated (on dog-walks, evening runs around the neighbourhood, and in the shower) that LH might have a clause in their contract that allows them to walk away from the deal if Boeing can't match their 20 pax orders by a given date.

Singapore Airlines have already discounted it. Air New Zealand no longer seem to be a likely candidate. The rumours are that Airbus will be enjoying BA's champagne next month instead of Boeing. Cathay do not seem near to ordering either VLJ. It's certainly not fanciful to suggest that 2007 will end without any further orders for the 747-8i.

Would I be OK with this if I were on the LH Board? I think I'd probably be happier once two or three more "blue-chip" airlines had joined me with firm orders.

So...

Would LH be happy being the sole airline operator of the type? I doubt it.
Would they cancel if they could? Who knows? Too early to say.
Are they likely to end up the sole operator? I doubt it.
But is Keesje entitled to raise the possibility? I'd say so.
 
ebj1248650
Posts: 1517
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 6:17 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:52 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 11):
I don't see LH taking the 747-8I on a whim. Especially 20 of them. They see a role for that type in their fleet and if they're worried about support, sign a "GoldCare-type" package with Boeing and force them to support it for the duration.

True enough. And I don't see Lufthansa doing away with its MD-11Fs any time soon as well. They've done sterling service for Lufthansa and other freight haulers. It makes sense that Lufthansa ordered the 748i for passenger work, and even if other airlines don't order it ... which is unlikely ... they're still needing the airplane and will use it on the routes they bought it for.
Dare to dream; dream big!
 
columba
Posts: 5045
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2004 10:12 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Tue Aug 28, 2007 11:55 pm

Quoting FlyABR (Reply 5):
actually, i suspect LH will order additional 748s...and they'll be freighters to go along with their intercontinentals. keesje, you really need to let go of this obsession you have with the 748i..

I think with LH´s record of placing additional orders for every type they have ordered it is a safe bet to say that some of the 20 purchase rights will be converted and I think for both versions of the 747-8.
Somehow I get the impression that will LH take delivery of its 747-8I threads have become the new "Will LH ever order new Boeing aircraft" threads.

This is what LH´s CEO had to say in May:

Quoting Seattle PI:

Mayrhuber also said he is not worried that Lufthansa remains the only airline customer for the 747-8 Intercontinental. It ordered 20 planes. He noted the freighter version of the 747-8 has been selling well. Through last month, Boeing had 63 orders.

The airline industry is taking more time before ordering the biggest passenger planes from Boeing or Airbus, Mayrhuber said. "There will be a breakthrough and more customers will come," he said of the 747-8 Intercontinental.


http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/315831_air16.html
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
Danny
Posts: 3714
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2002 3:44 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:01 am

Quoting PM (Reply 37):
Would I be OK with this if I were on the LH Board? I think I'd probably be happier once two or three more "blue-chip" airlines had joined me with firm orders.

For LH it is a win-win situation. Either they'll get extremely cheap 748i or they'll take even cheaper 748F to replace their MD-11s. No worries for LH.
 
bok269
Posts: 1568
Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 10:19 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:19 am

Quoting Cobra27 (Reply 24):

So other carriers will order 748 just because BA did? This is not kindergarden you know

No, but many carriers prefer not to be the first. This is so that if there are any kinks, it gets worked out with earlier carriers in the production queue.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 26):

LH wont want to take the 747-8i if they are the only operator of the type.

No reason why not. Qantas is the only airline to operate the 747-400ER. DL and CO are theonly ones to fly the 764. If it meets their needs and Boeing is still delivering, they'll fly them.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):
Quoting Danny (Reply 32):


Quoting Stitch in Reply 30:
Once LH has it in service, it will provide "real-world" data that other carriers can use down the road when determining their own 400+ seat fleet replacement and expansion plans.

LH already says it has inferior CASM to the A380.

LH has said the 747-8I burns a bit more fuel per passenger per 100km flown then the A380-800 in their respective LH configurations, but fuel costs alone do not determine CASM. Could you please point me to where LH has said such?

Its important to remember that no mattter the CASM, if seats aren't filled its harder to make a profit. So, if you have a 748 worth of people in an A380, you'll be making less than if they were in a 748.


Remember, we are still 3years out of EIS. There is still time.
"Reality is wrong, dreams are for real." -Tupac
 
wcs
Posts: 180
Joined: Fri Apr 27, 2007 4:55 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:24 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 36):
I don't know why Airbus supporters like to keep playing the "Martyr card" when their side stirs the pot as much as Boeing's do - this thread being a perfect example...

I do understand your frustration, and I share it. Let's face it, there is fanboys on both side, and it's not my responsibility to gauge who is better, who is worst. I think it's just ridiculous.

That being said, I find that Boeing's current challenges, and let's call them challenges so far, are addressed quite sensitively by some. And I don't want to highlight any "flag connection", but still. (I know, CaptainX is an exception Big grin )

The Airbus fiasco was an opportunity for some to produce garbage here. There were unfair and ridiculous posts about these issues. Maybe that was the root of what you call the “martyr card”. I personally don’t think there is such a card there, except for lame, ridiculous fanboys.

Being back to the basis, was the initial question legitimate? I personally think so. By his name, the poster was guilty in charge. Is it some legacies of the past? Could be! But I personally didn't find anything wrong into the initial post.

For all, sorry to be out of topic,

Regards,
Raphael
FLY SKYTEAM JETS
 
jfk777
Posts: 5840
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:23 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:30 am

Boeing has to do a better job of selling 748"s. BA, JAL and Cathay need to get their future 744 replacements programs in place.
 
flyabr
Posts: 752
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2003 11:42 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:32 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 27):
You guys seriously need to chill out - Keesje asked a pertinent and reasonable question and nobody has given him a decent answer - you all seem to prefer to slate him for "stirring the pot" - withe all due respect, this thread is a lot more pertinent and relevent than many of the Cheerleader thread starters.

but keesje has a certain preoccupation with the 748i recently if you haven't noticed...so it's fun to give him crap about stirring the pot!
 
TKV
Posts: 368
Joined: Wed Aug 01, 2007 10:59 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:41 am

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 27):
You guys seriously need to chill out - Keesje asked a pertinent and reasonable question and nobody has given him a decent answer - you all seem to prefer to slate him for "stirring the pot" - withe all due respect, this thread is a lot more pertinent and relevent than many of the Cheerleader thread starters.

As for myself, I have not said that the question is not reasonable..... only that the timing, just when BA is about to announce its decision, is so (see my Reply 4

TKV
 
JRDC930
Posts: 882
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2007 5:36 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:42 am

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 43):
BA, JAL and Cathay need to get their future 744 replacements programs in place.

Based on their own recent PR, and industry news, it seems they do, and they seem to be leaning toward the 380 instead of the 748I, its like something about the 748I, scares away customers...
U.S. Legacy carriers,STILL leaders in lowering industry standards...
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F

Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:49 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 25):
I think many of the childsh posts above ignore the rationality of Boeing on matters like these. If they can spend there money better, they´ll do it just like Airbus did on the A380F.

There are two problems with your analogy:

1) In the WhaleJet case, the development of the freighter would have required a substantial increase in MTOW. Boeing have no such expense with the passenger JumboJet.

2) Boeing already have developed passenger versions of earlier Jumbos, so the additional work is less.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 26):
LH wont want to take the 747-8i if they are the only operator of the type.

Dodgy speculation.
 
bok269
Posts: 1568
Joined: Fri May 04, 2007 10:19 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:56 am

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 43):
Boeing has to do a better job of selling 748"s. BA, JAL and Cathay need to get their future 744 replacements programs in place.

Also remember there is another program that Boeing has been working on. One they obviously understand to be more important than the 747. A little program with nearly 700 orders by first flight. Boeing prioritized, and realized that they needed to push the 787, and they were very successful with it.
"Reality is wrong, dreams are for real." -Tupac
 
User avatar
Stitch
Posts: 23074
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 4:26 am

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F

Wed Aug 29, 2007 12:59 am

Quoting WCS (Reply 42):
I do understand your frustration, and I share it. Let's face it, there is fanboys on both side, and it's not my responsibility to gauge who is better, who is worst. I think it's just ridiculous.

No argument there, sir.  Smile

Quote:
That being said, I find that Boeing's current challenges, and let's call them challenges so far, are addressed quite sensitively by some. And I don't want to highlight any "flag connection", but still...The Airbus fiasco was an opportunity for some to produce garbage here. There were unfair and ridiculous posts about these issues. Maybe that was the root of what you call the �martyr card". I personally don't think there is such a card there, except for lame, ridiculous fanboys.

Also very true (unfortunately).

Quote:
Being back to the basis, was the initial question legitimate? I personally think so. By his name, the poster was guilty in charge. Is it some legacies of the past? Could be! But I personally didn't find anything wrong into the initial post.

Three for three.

My only...beef...with Keesje is that he (in my view) stirs the pot when he does not need to. He does offer a lot of insightful commentary, but sometimes I feel he "flavors" it with a bit of "inciteful"commentary. But hey, everybody needs a hobby (even me).  Smile
 
jacobin777
Posts: 12262
Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 6:29 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Wed Aug 29, 2007 1:11 am

Quoting Danny (Reply 32):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 30):
Once LH has it in service, it will provide "real-world" data that other carriers can use down the road when determining their own 400+ seat fleet replacement and expansion plans.

LH already says it has inferior CASM to the A380 admitting they ordered it because of rock bottom price and freighter option as suggested by Kesje.

There was a recent interview with Mayrhuber stating that Leahy & Co. was offering additional A380's to LH at "abuse the plane prices" yet LH felt it was still too big....

In other words, the B748I will fit in the fleet for LH where the A346/B744 is too small and the A380 is too big...

I would say routes such as ORD/SFO fit the bill.. yes 

Quoting Columba (Reply 39):
This is what LH�s CEO had to say in May:

Quoting Seattle PI:

Mayrhuber also said he is not worried that Lufthansa remains the only airline customer for the 747-8 Intercontinental. It ordered 20 planes. He noted the freighter version of the 747-8 has been selling well. Through last month, Boeing had 63 orders.

The airline industry is taking more time before ordering the biggest passenger planes from Boeing or Airbus, Mayrhuber said. "There will be a breakthrough and more customers will come," he said of the 747-8 Intercontinental.


http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/busine....html

...interesting quote there.... Wink
"Up the Irons!"
 
EI321
Posts: 4788
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:43 pm

RE: Could Lufthansa Convert Their 747-8i´s Into 8F´s?

Wed Aug 29, 2007 1:47 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 47):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 26):
LH wont want to take the 747-8i if they are the only operator of the type.

Dodgy speculation.

Dodgy counter speculation.

What happened after orders for the 767-400ER stalled before it flew? CO and DL reduced their orders books, and ILFC canceled altogether. Then Boeing introduced more modern features like the new cockpit to no avail. The list of airlines that Boeing tried to sell the 767-400ER to is long, as is the list of 'potential' customers that have apparently been interested in the 747-8i.

As far as I'm concerned, the 747-8 is a sales turkey. Why? Because the 66 freighter frames that have been sold to date would largely have been accounted for by the 747-400F and 777-200F freighters anyway, had the 747-400F not been replaced and had the 747-8 programme not been launched. Boeing would still hold the monoply in the large (777) and very large (747) freighter market, whether they launched the 747-8 or not. Its not as if the airlines who have ordered the 66 747-8F ordered to date (all of whom are existing 747 operators) would have gone and replaced their 747 fleets with the A330F. They would have replaced them with either the 747-400F, 747BCF or the 777F. And if you want evidence of this look at what happened when Fedex & UPS canceled their A380F's - they ordered new build 777F and 747-400F. Even Cargolux CEO said they had rejected the A380F long before the 747-8 was launched, because it (the A380F) just did not suit them. They would have ordered more 747-400's or 777's if the 747-8F was not launched.

The additional revenue created by the 747-8 is not as big as it seems at face value because it has fed off the 747-400F and 777F sales markets.

$4b would have been better spent taking on the 787-10ER & 787-11 IMO, although Boeings relationship with GE would likely cause problems, and there was no A350XWB at the time of the 747-8 launch.

[Edited 2007-08-28 19:00:46]