FCKC
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Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:05 pm

http://today.reuters.fr/news/newsArt..._0_OFRBS-AIRBUS-CHINE-20070903.XML

Sorry unable to find a link in English

J Leahy declared (I already see the comments to come ..........) China will need 113 A380s for the next 20 years to come.

He also said Air China and China Eastern will order A380s next year.

I predict a "strong" thread.

Interesting to see the comments of A.netters about A380 and China.
 
cartoonranger
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:08 pm

Interesting as it's now official that SIA have taken a stake in China Eastern

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6975697.stm
 
PM
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:22 pm

113 seems a bit steep but over 20 years that's just 5 - 6 a year so who knows?

What I think is beyond doubt is that Airbus will sell more A380s in China than China Southern's initial 5 and that more than one airline will operate it. I take Air China as a given (a matter of 'when', not 'if') and China Eastern must be considered a possibility too (although they've never flown anything bigger than an A340-600).

Indeed, China must be a major source of hope for Airbus. The economy is bursting at the seams, air travel is shooting up and Chinese airlines seem to have an insatiable appetite. (Shame about the environment  Sad)

In the not too distant future I can see both Air China and China Southern with, say, 15 each. But where will Leahy get the next 83 from?  Confused

Is he suggesting that Air China and China Southern will have, say, 35 each, China Eastern will have perhaps 20 and some other airlines (Hainan? Shanghai?) will pick up the remaining couple of dozen?

Well, maybe but not any time in the near future...
 
TruemanQLD
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:32 pm

I think 113 is reachable. What I want to know is how they get these exact figures when if the slightest thing changes this could be upto 50 A/C off. What if there was an accident and chinese aviation lost a bit of ground? Anyway I think that China Eastern and Air China will definetly order 10 or so each and with say 15 options between them
 
EI321
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:57 pm

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 3):
What I want to know is how they get these exact figures when if the slightest thing changes this could be upto 50 A/C off.

They are just an estimate. Boeing compiles estimates also. If you go to airbus.com or boeing.com, there are rather extensive market for casts for the next 20 years which cover each geological region and each aircraft size.
 
Carpethead
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:19 pm

A few weeks ago, CAAC was complaining airport congestion at PEK.
Xiamen Airlines turns around and orders up more Boeing 737s.
So much for the government having a hand in the market.

Anyways, if market predictions come true, 113 will be a very low number of A380s being operated by any Chinese airline.
If markets are truely liberalized, we could have Ryanair China-version and have it certified for 900+ pax.
 
Elger
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 3:09 am

Looking at China Southern on Wikipedia, I read regarding their orders:

Airbus A3890-800 (5 orders) 880 (20/80/780). Entry into service 2009
========================================================

Anybody heard of such configuration and how it looks ??

If real, it could only be for intra-China service, in which case it would be relatively short range and therefore all its long range capabilities would be misspent!

Comments ??

Elger
 
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OA260
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 3:18 am

Quoting Elger (Reply 6):
If real, it could only be for intra-China service, in which case it would be relatively short range and therefore all its long range capabilities would be misspent!

Comments ??

If it works and makes a good profit on a short haul route I dont think it is misspent!! It will do alot of long hauls. Short haul will only work in certain markets. One might say that the A380 fits into both L/H and S/H markets. Rather than just L/H. Time will tell but 113 is a realistic number and seems achievable.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 3:24 am

Quoting TruemanQLD (Reply 3):
I think 113 is reachable.

Seeing as they've barely sold this amount thus far, I'm not holding my breath.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
kaitak
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 3:29 am

I guess my first reaction would be, "where are the two customers that were to come in 2007?"!

That said (and assuming China, for the purposes of this thread, excludes HK), I think CA and MU are likely candidates; they are after all, the "big three" and one isn't going to want another to get too far ahead. Can't see any of the other carriers - Shanghai, Hainan etc - having a need for them, at least in the short term, but 20 years down the line, maybe ...

So, 113 seems quite achievable, but for now, I can't see either of the big three having a need for much more than 10-12 each.
 
Elger
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 4:32 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 7):
If it works and makes a good profit on a short haul route I dont think it is misspent!! It will do alot of long hauls. Short haul will only work in certain markets. One might say that the A380 fits into both L/H and S/H markets. Rather than just L/H. Time will tell but 113 is a realistic number and seems achievable.

ve

Have you calculated the CASM/pax for this long range extra heavy aircraft (its aerodynamic advantages are not relevant on such short routes) on the only routes where such a cattle-like transport would be possible, even there at expense of the frequency ??
Shanghai-HongKong: 665 nm straight
Shanghai-Beijing: 576 nm straight
HongKong-Beijing: 1,254 straight ??

IMHO this short haul idea is an intent to see a market for the A380 where there is none !

When Southern Airlines came up with their idea the oil cost was a fraction of todays and could be at this time eventually justified !

An very adequate aircraft for such routes would be the B787-3 !!

Elger
 
gbfra
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 4:47 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 9):
So, 113 seems quite achievable, but for now, I can't see either of the big three having a need for much more than 10-12 each

Boeing as well as Airbus are predicting a very strong capacity growth for the next 20 years. If this will become true (nobody knows for sure) in 2027 the Chinese market for airliners could look quite different than today's market.

Quoting Elger (Reply 10):
Have you calculated the CASM/pax for this long range extra heavy aircraft (its aerodynamic advantages are not relevant on such short routes) on the only routes where such a cattle-like transport would be possible, even there at expense of the frequency ??
Shanghai-HongKong: 665 nm straight
Shanghai-Beijing: 576 nm straight
HongKong-Beijing: 1,254 straight ??

If you kindly look at the Chinese map you will easily find other huge agglomerations than the three you mentioned.

Quoting Elger (Reply 10):
IMHO this short haul idea is an intent to see a market for the A380 where there is none !

(The late Aminobwana and TKV were equally critical of the A380. Will the third incarnation last longer than the previous ones?)

Quoting Elger (Reply 10):
An very adequate aircraft for such routes would be the B787-3 !!

Only if you are in favour of airport congestion. In the long run they will need bigger planes (not necessarily the A380).
The fundamental things apply as time goes by
 
ikramerica
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 4:53 am

Quoting FCKC (Thread starter):
J Leahy declared (I already see the comments to come ..........) China will need 113 A380s for the next 20 years to come.

I think Boeing had a similar count for total VLAs in 2006 (3% rounded of 2880 frames, or up to 100), but unlike Leahy, Boeing doesn't assume the entire nut will go to the 748I/F. Leahy of course dismisses the 748 and believes all orders will go to Airbus.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
gbfra
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 4:55 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 12):
Leahy of course dismisses the 748 and believes all orders will go to Airbus.

Any source for your claim?
The fundamental things apply as time goes by
 
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OA260
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 4:56 am

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 11):
If you kindly look at the Chinese map you will easily find other huge agglomerations than the three you mentioned.

You beat me to it LOL....

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 11):
(The late Aminobwana and TKV were equally critical of the A380. Will the third incarnation last longer than the previous ones?)

Makes you wonder ....  Wink

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 11):
Only if you are in favour of airport congestion. In the long run they will need bigger planes (not necessarily the A380).

Very true . Also didn't Kingfisher state that they had an idea of competing with India's train networks on longer routes using max capacity A380's ???
 
ikramerica
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 5:00 am

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 13):
Any source for your claim?

It can be inferred from his projections now and in the past, and his statements regarding the 748.

You know, not everything in life must be cited when the reality is obvious. It's tiresome when people say you can't have an opinion or analyze anything unless you quote somebody else already saying it or analyzing it. It's called original thought, and it may be dying, but it's not dead yet.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
gbfra
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 5:13 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 15):
It can be inferred from his projections now and in the past, and his statements regarding the 748.

You know, not everything in life must be cited when the reality is obvious.

Which means: "I'm too lazy to check facts so I'm just writing what comes to my mind. And everybody has to accept my imagination as truth."
If you checked facts you knew that you are writing plain nonsense.
The fundamental things apply as time goes by
 
abba
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 5:49 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 9):
So, 113 seems quite achievable, but for now, I can't see either of the big three having a need for much more than 10-12 each.

You must stress "for now" very much as "for now" dosn't last very long in China these days!

Abba
 
Wsp
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In

Fri Sep 07, 2007 7:54 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 12):
I think Boeing had a similar count for total VLAs in 2006 (3% rounded of 2880 frames, or up to 100), but unlike Leahy, Boeing doesn't assume the entire nut will go to the 748I/F.

Airbus' market forecast for passenger VLA for China is 113:

http://www.airbus.com/store/mm_repos...object_file_AirbusGMF2006-2025.pdf
page 17 (PDF page 10) table at the bottom right

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 12):
Leahy of course dismisses the 748 and believes all orders will go to Airbus.

I doubt you can read minds to know what Leahy believes.

[Edited 2007-09-07 00:56:35]
 
keesje
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 8:04 am

Coincidently this week I talked to an Air China person closely involved in fleetplanning and he told me there were no short term plans for the A380..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Stitch
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 8:09 am

I can see scores of A380 in China and India to help funnel folks into and out of the hubs...

...along with hundreds of 787-3s to get them from those hubs to other cities within both countries.

Win-win for both manufacturers, the airlines, and the passengers. What's not to like?  Smile
 
art
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 8:30 am

Quoting Kaitak (Reply 9):
So, 113 seems quite achievable, but for now, I can't see either of the big three having a need for much more than 10-12 each.

Neither does Airbus up to 2015, it seems. They predict 35 VLA sales 2006-2015. Then they predict much higher demand - 78 sales in the following 10 years.

http://www.airbus.com/store/mm_repos...object_file_AirbusGMF2006-2025.pdf
page 17 (PDF page 10) table at the bottom right
 
ikramerica
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 8:39 am

Quoting Wsp (Reply 18):
I doubt you can read minds to know what Leahy believes.

So you think Leahy dismisses the 748 but secretly believes it will win a lot of orders? Aren't you reading minds?

BTW - all you people getting on my case...

I suggest you consult the Airbus 2006 Global Market Forecast
http://www.airbus.com/store/mm_repos...object_file_AirbusGMF2006-2025.pdf

In the China Section, Airbus predicts demand for 113 VLA passenger sales to China for 20 years, which just so happens to be the exact number of A380's he said they will need.

Projected 747-8 passenger sales to China by Leahy? ZERO.

Have a nice day.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 8:54 am

And by the way, his projection is backloaded for 80 birds 2016-2025, which again begs the question of why Airbus launched the plane when they did, when all their projections are that the market wants the plane from 2010 onward, and there would be pent up demand if it were to EIS in 2012, for example.

By 2016 or later, the A380 won't be as cutting edge, as it will have (in theory) been in service 10 years (now 8 years). 2/3rds of the passenger 744s were delivered within the first 10 years after feb 1989 EIS, as the technology was falling behind toward the end of the century. Despite the world aviation market growing, demand for the outdated 744 was slowing. An ER model didn't help, and the F model really became the model to sell.

But Leahy projects the demand for A380 PAX planes to be backloaded, so will this mean in 10 years people will except such old technology, or will Airbus have to "NG" the A380 to keep it current, at great expense.

EIS in 2012 with the latest technology available at that date, the A380 program could easily have filled the demand for the world with a plane that wouldn't be considered "that old" by 2025.

Anyway, I wish Airbus luck selling the A380 in 2016 and later, especially against their own super efficient A350-1000 and whatever Y3 Boeing brings along...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Wsp
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:18 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 22):
So you think Leahy dismisses the 748 but secretly believes it will win a lot of orders? Aren't you reading minds?

A company official on a sales pitch will rarely spend time highlighting his competitor's product's potential. I certainly don't. But to assume that therefore this person is ignorant or unaware of its competitor's products is far fetched.
 
ZiggyStardust
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:21 am

Quoting Elger (Reply 6):

Airbus A3890-800 (5 orders) 880 (20/80/780). Entry into service 2009
========================================================

On the A380 evac test, there were only 873 participants. Do you need to remove flight crew from the number? If the plane's for domestic service, can China ignore the certification?

http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre...06_03_26_a380_evacuation_test.html
 
atmx2000
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 12:46 pm

113? Gee that is awfully precise. Not 112, or 114. You got to wonder why people throw out precise numbers like that instead of rounding to the nearest 10 or 100.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 23):
By 2016 or later, the A380 won't be as cutting edge, as it will have (in theory) been in service 10 years (now 8 years). 2/3rds of the passenger 744s were delivered within the first 10 years after feb 1989 EIS, as the technology was falling behind toward the end of the century. Despite the world aviation market growing, demand for the outdated 744 was slowing. An ER model didn't help, and the F model really became the model to sell.

This is always the problem. The delay of the A380 and the relatively low peak production rate will prevent the A380 from breaking even without a significant update. But I would suggest the model to consider is not 744 vs 744ER but 741/2/3 vs 744.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
art
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 6:06 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 23):
But Leahy projects the demand for A380 PAX planes to be backloaded, so will this mean in 10 years people will except such old technology, or will Airbus have to "NG" the A380 to keep it current, at great expense.

What is the expense of smacking a newer engine on the aircraft? A few $ hundred million?
 
zvezda
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 6:50 pm

As long as Chinese airlines continue to fly 737s PEK-SHA, the idea of operating WhaleJets on this route is far-fetched.
 
Robbie86
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 8:25 pm

I think we will see alot of 380's not only in China but also in India in the near future. As these two countries holds 1/3 of the world population and both of them having an economy that's growing like h**l I think demand will increase big time.
 
zvezda
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 8:58 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 20):
I can see scores of A380 in China and India to help funnel folks into and out of the hubs...

...along with hundreds of 787-3s to get them from those hubs to other cities within both countries.

The problem with this scenario is that it assumes very little fragmentation. China has a dozen cities with more than 5M in population. I expect that by 2015 we'll see as many Chinese cities with transpacific service as we now see US cities with transatlantic service.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In

Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:04 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 30):
The problem with this scenario is that it assumes very little fragmentation. China has a dozen cities with more than 5M in population. I expect that by 2015 we'll see as many Chinese cities with transpacific service as we now see US cities with transatlantic service.

I am sure fragmentation will happen, and likely much quicker then it did in other "developed" countries, but even with a dozen cities that could serve as international gateways, the initial push might be through the largest cities first.
 
airbazar
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:10 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 30):
The problem with this scenario is that it assumes very little fragmentation. China has a dozen cities with more than 5M in population. I expect that by 2015 we'll see as many Chinese cities with transpacific service as we now see US cities with transatlantic service.

The only problem with that theory is that I don't see that much of an increase in the number of people in China who can afford to travel transpacific. I suspect these A380's will be used mostly on domestic runs.
 
zvezda
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In

Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:17 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 31):
I am sure fragmentation will happen, and likely much quicker then it did in other "developed" countries, but even with a dozen cities that could serve as international gateways, the initial push might be through the largest cities first.

A population of 5M within the city limits is not required to be an international gateway. China has over a hundred cities that could see international service in 2015. Of course, the largest cities will see international service first, but the situation will develop rapidly. If I were a Chinese airline based anywhere other than PEK, PVG, or HKG, I wouldn't touch anything larger than an A350.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:44 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 33):
If I were a Chinese airline based anywhere other than PEK, PVG, or HKG, I wouldn't touch anything larger than an A350.

But if I was an airline based in PEK, PVG and HKG, I'd be considering A388s and 787-3s to feed them...
 
art
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:46 pm

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 32):
I don't see that much of an increase in the number of people in China who can afford to travel transpacific.

Savings ratios figures cited on the BBC business program today: in the UK, US and Germany consumers save <10% of their net income. The estimated figure for China is >30%. My conclusion: the Chinese soon will be going places in very large numbers.
 
astuteman
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:43 pm

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 30):
The problem with this scenario is that it assumes very little fragmentation

I'm not sure it does......

113 A380's (or 113 VLA's - whatever) in 20 years.....
What do Boeing and Airbus forecast for total widebody sales in the region in the next 20 years?
Thousands? (numbers anyone?)
6 VLA's a year, IMO leaves plenty of room for fragmentation  yes 

Boeing forecast a market for VLA's (worldwide, and in China) (number anyone?)
Airbus forecast a market for VLA's (worldwide, and in China)
Established, profitable blue chip airlines, such as QF, SQ, LH, AF, BA etc are ordering, or intend to order, VLA's by the score, fragmentation notwithstanding.

Fragmentation won't make the VLA go away.
It will mean that the REAL growth area is in long-range, medium sized widebodys.

I guess the key debating points are:-
a) In the thousands of widebodys that will be ordered in this region in the next 20 years, is 113 A380's reasonable? (Is 113 VLA's reasonable?)
b) Do we believe both Air China, and China Eastern will order the A380 next year?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 34):
But if I was an airline based in PEK, PVG and HKG, I'd be considering A388s and 787-3s to feed them...

Given the size of the urban populations, in many cases, it's feasible that ground-based infrastructure could support VLA's in these areas.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 31):
the initial push might be through the largest cities first.

Sounds sensible. And these will remain fertile breeding ground for the VLA..  Smile

Regards
 
Wsp
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In

Sat Sep 08, 2007 12:45 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 28):
As long as Chinese airlines continue to fly 737s PEK-SHA, the idea of operating WhaleJets on this route is far-fetched.

From BEIJING to SHANGHAI Mon, Sep 10, 2007
CA1831 7:25 9:40 330
CA1501 8:35 10:40 330
CA1519 9:30 11:40 74E
CA1557 11:30 13:40 744
CA1517 13:25 15:40 772
CA1521 14:30 16:40 330
CA1515 15:30 17:40 330
CA1855 17:25 19:40 330
CA1549 18:45 20:40 738
CA1857 19:40 21:40 772
CA1589 20:40 22:40 772

Plus PVG:
CA1936 16:50 18:55 340
CA175 17:35 19:45 330
CA986 21:20 23:20 763

[Edited 2007-09-07 17:48:08]
 
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Stitch
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:47 am

Quoting Wsp (Reply 37):
From BEIJING to SHANGHAI Mon, Sep 10, 2007...

Now that's a perfect 787-3 route, right there.  thumbsup 
 
jacobin777
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:19 am

Quoting Wsp (Reply 24):
A company official on a sales pitch will rarely spend time highlighting his competitor's product's potential. I certainly don't. But to assume that therefore this person is ignorant or unaware of its competitor's products is far fetched.

...maybe you should do some background work on Leahy's comments regarding the B787.... Smile
"Up the Irons!"
 
ikramerica
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:29 am

Quoting Wsp (Reply 24):
But to assume that therefore this person is ignorant or unaware of its competitor's products is far fetched.

You said that, not me.

I said he dismisses the market for the 748 and assume the A380 will capture 100% of the market, and his comments and forecasts bear that out.

Sorry that reality doesn't jive with your viewpoint, but the facts are the facts.

Airbus projects 113 VLA pax frames for China.
Leahy says China will buy 113 A380s. Or in other words, Boeing will sell zero 748 pax jets to China in 20 years (and zero Y3 equivalents...)

You don't need a degree in mathematics to do that calculus, nor need you be a psychic to "read his mind."

And Boeing never makes such predictions, ever. Never, ever, have I seen Boeing predict capturing 100% of any market.

So as an investor, how do you place a lot of stock into Airbus's projections when they make unreasonable assumptions? And when history shows their unreasonable assumptions to be flawed (at least so far).
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Wsp
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:47 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 38):
Now that's a perfect 787-3 route, right there. thumbsup

Seriously, I doubt that. They keep up-sizing equipment on that route. And the demand will only go up.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 39):
...maybe you should do some background work on Leahy's comments regarding the B787.... Smile

Maybe I should have said "praising" instead of "highlighting". I don't for a second believe that Airbus' internal assessment of the 787 market potential matched their public comments.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:50 am

Quoting Wsp (Reply 41):
Seriously, I doubt that. They keep up-sizing equipment on that route. And the demand will only go up.

But the advantage is you can put more 787-3s side by side then you can A388s and you don't need specialized gates to maximize their efficiency.

Plus, you'll probably eventually see high-speed rail laid between both cities to bypass all the time spent outside of the actual flight itself.
 
TeamAmerica
Posts: 1540
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:38 am

RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:56 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 15):
It's called original thought, and it may be dying, but it's not dead yet.

Source?

(Just kidding...couldn't resist!)  

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 36):
In the thousands of widebodys that will be ordered in this region in the next 20 years, is 113 A380's reasonable? (Is 113 VLA's reasonable?)

The 113 seems startlingly low coming from Airbus. Even Boeing projects 990 VLA's worldwide, and it would seem that China should account for no less than 20% of that...200 VLA's would be reasonable if we accept that projection. Perhaps Airbus is conceding sales lost to Boeing, but even then 113 A380's strikes me as pessimistic compared to previous rhetoric.

[EDIT - spelling]

[Edited 2007-09-07 21:18:25]
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
abba
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Sat Sep 08, 2007 4:02 am

Quoting Zvezda (Reply 30):
The problem with this scenario is that it assumes very little fragmentation. China has a dozen cities with more than 5M in population. I expect that by 2015 we'll see as many Chinese cities with transpacific service as we now see US cities with transatlantic service

That is an understatement! A 5m city in China is next to nothing.

There are a few cities/regions with well over 20 million people - the Pearl River Delta Area predicted as having close to 80 million in a few years time. Even with transpacific and connections to Europe from as many as two airports in this area (HKG and Guangzhou) there will - as China gets wealthier - be plenty of room for 380 service. And then there there is the Chongqing area (some 35 million in the autonomous area alone - and development will also go that far West over time) Shanghai etc.

China's 1B+ population is indeed not evenly distributed withing China's boarders.

Abba
 
Wsp
Posts: 356
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Sat Sep 08, 2007 4:07 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 40):
You said that, not me.

I said he dismisses the market for the 748 and assume the A380 will capture 100% of the market, and his comments and forecasts bear that out.

Sorry that reality doesn't jive with your viewpoint, but the facts are the facts.

Airbus projects 113 VLA pax frames for China.
Leahy says China will buy 113 A380s. Or in other words, Boeing will sell zero 748 pax jets to China in 20 years (and zero Y3 equivalents...)

You don't need a degree in mathematics to do that calculus, nor need you be a psychic to "read his mind."

And Boeing never makes such predictions, ever. Never, ever, have I seen Boeing predict capturing 100% of any market.

So as an investor, how do you place a lot of stock into Airbus's projections when they make unreasonable assumptions? And when history shows their unreasonable assumptions to be flawed (at least so far).

It was marketing a product to customers. If you want to believe that Airbus believes that "Boeing will sell zero 748 pax jets to China in 20 years" then fine. Airbus probably got to their position in the market by making absurd assumptions in their forecasts  Yeah sure
 
Wsp
Posts: 356
Joined: Sun May 06, 2007 7:43 am

RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In

Sat Sep 08, 2007 4:17 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 42):
But the advantage is you can put more 787-3s side by side then you can A388s and you don't need specialized gates to maximize their efficiency.

Plus, you'll probably eventually see high-speed rail laid between both cities to bypass all the time spent outside of the actual flight itself.

Thats bad news for the 787-3 then  Wink

BTW. Just to clarify this, I don't make any assumptions about the equipment they will fly there. I just was surprised about Zvezda's comment on narrow bodies because I remembered the route as The Cheapest Way To Try Out Every Widebody In Existence.
 
khobar
Posts: 1336
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2006 4:12 am

RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Sat Sep 08, 2007 4:33 am

Quoting Carpethead (Reply 5):
Xiamen Airlines turns around and orders up more Boeing 737s.
So much for the government having a hand in the market.

Xiamen Airlines didn't place the order. The gubmint ministry of airliner procurement did.

Quoting Elger (Reply 6):
Airbus A3890-800

A what? A what?

Quoting Wsp (Reply 18):
I doubt you can read minds to know what Leahy believes.

Leahy has been quite vocal about Boeing products. No mind reading needed.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 22):
In the China Section, Airbus predicts demand for 113 VLA passenger sales to China for 20 years, which just so happens to be the exact number of A380's he said they will need.

Projected 747-8 passenger sales to China by Leahy? ZERO.

BAM!  Wink

Quoting Art (Reply 35):
Savings ratios figures cited on the BBC business program today: in the UK, US and Germany consumers save <10% of their net income. The estimated figure for China is >30%. My conclusion: the Chinese soon will be going places in very large numbers.

Average per capita income in Germany: $34,580 (2005 World Bank)
Average per capita income in communist China is? $1,290 (2005, World Bank) or $1,740 (2005, World Bank. Hmm).
 
airbazar
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Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:12 pm

RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Sat Sep 08, 2007 4:34 am

Quoting Art (Reply 35):
Savings ratios figures cited on the BBC business program today: in the UK, US and Germany consumers save <10% of their net income. The estimated figure for China is >30%. My conclusion: the Chinese soon will be going places in very large numbers.

Yes, but what is the average salary in China vs. UK/US/Germany? 30% savings on a $1,500/yr salary isn't going to take you very far, while for even a 5% savings on a $50K/yr salary you can spend a really nice vacation. There's still a long way to go before your average Chinese factory worker can spend his vacation in Disneyland.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13730
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RE: Air China , China Eastern Will Order A380s In 2008

Sat Sep 08, 2007 4:36 am

Quoting Wsp (Reply 45):
Airbus probably got to their position in the market by making absurd assumptions in their forecasts

Airbus launched the A380 with government funds by making absurd assumptions in their forecasts. Yes. And they must continue to make those statements to justify the cost of the program and the timing.

Assuming the numbers are correct, it's still proof the plane was planned for EIS 5-6 years too early.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.