n471wn
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WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 1:34 am

Continental just reported that their Revenue Passenger Miles (RPM's) for August were up 15.1% with a load factor of 85.3% and SWA reported their similar numbers for August were RPM'S up 12.1% and load factor up nearly 3 points to 80%. It is so interesting to see how differently these two carriers are approaching the market form the the "we will keep shrinking" airlines--especially American and Northwest.
 
futurecaptain
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 3:05 am

Great to see revenues rising, perhaps profitability will return for more airlines. Although the airline's profit is my loss...I'm already looking at paying twice as much to go on vacation for Christmas this year than last year.
WN at an 80% LF with revenues up 12% will probably make some good money this quarter.
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PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 3:44 am

CO's overall RPM's were up 8.1% system-wide, not 15%.
Trans-Atlantic RPM's were up 15.2%

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070904/latu164.html?.v=9

An 88% domestic load factor is insane. That is essentially every flight being full.
 
ikramerica
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 3:50 am

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 2):
An 88% domestic load factor is insane. That is essentially every flight being full.

yep, hard to get seats, hard to get seats at a reasonable price (not cheap) and no chance for upgrades.

they need more planes...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Analog
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 3:51 am

Note that the mainline number of non-completed R.P. miles (100% - completion factor) roughly DOUBLED from 4 out of 1000 to 8 out of 1000.
 
goboeing
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 3:53 am

Continental Airlines is very strapped for lift right now.
 
n471wn
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 3:54 am

I just re-read the news release on Investor.com and it used the number 15.2 in conjunction with Continental's RPM's but 8.1% seems more reasonable so I do not doubt you as I just reported what I saw......sorry about that but in any case it is so nice to see airlines that want to grow rather than take the easy way out and shrink .
 
EWRCabincrew
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 3:55 am

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 2):
An 88% domestic load factor is insane. That is essentially every flight being full.

Tell me. Commuting has been interesting. Makes for longer days.

Glad to see, though, I am all about job security (as much as the airline industry can provide).
You can't cure stupid
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 6:31 am

Quoting N471WN (Reply 6):
sorry about that but in any case it is so nice to see airlines that want to grow rather than take the easy way out and shrink .

In regards to other airlines shrinking rather than growing, I think that there is more to the story than just that. Each airline is at a different point in their growth curve. CO & DL are growing by redeploying their assets. You can argue that the NYC market and the mega-O&D market that is available is what has driven most of that growth. Additionally is the explosive growth into second-tier international markets that wasn't possible a few years back - whether due to aircraft or political reasons.

Airlines like NW don't have such easy opportunities available to grow, based upon the strengths in their route network at this point (DTW & MSP are not attractive for second tier international markets). UA is limited by aircraft & ORD constraints . AA on the other hand is simply limited by the number of aircraft available and a number of uncertainities in the short term.

Its easy to cheer CO's growth right now, but look how far down they cut a few years back - based on the sheer number of routes they transitioned from mainline to RJ's domestically. Even now only are they slowly building some of that back. Organic domestic growth has been very limited at best.

Quoting EWRCabincrew (Reply 7):
Tell me. Commuting has been interesting. Makes for longer days.

Yes, that 88% LF is bad news for commuters, non-rev'ers, and customer mis-connections. Particularly in a delay-prone location like EWR. That 88% while showing CO (and the other airlines too had extremely high LF's over the summer) also indicates how tight the line is between operating efficiently and being unprepared to handle irregular operations.
 
Analog
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 6:42 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3):

yep, hard to get seats, hard to get seats at a reasonable price (not cheap) and no chance for upgrades.

It sucks when you want to buy a last minute Y fare and there are no F seats to Y-up into.
 
EWRCabincrew
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 6:44 am

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 8):
That 88% while showing CO (and the other airlines too had extremely high LF's over the summer) also indicates how tight the line is between operating efficiently and being unprepared to handle irregular operations.

Not necessarily. While we do have a huge hub in EWR, we are also not limited to that hub. We have crews all over and are able to reroute them, as well as the aircraft, for irregular operations.

We have plans for when irregular operations impact our hubs (and other cities). We are rarely unprepared. For one instance, having a hub in a weather prone area, we are quick to make sure the operation runs as smoothly as possible during bad/severe weather.
You can't cure stupid
 
n471wn
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 7:18 am

PSU.DTW.SCE writes : "AA on the other hand is simply limited by the number of aircraft available......"

Not true as they have knowingly and with malice and forethought elected to park perfectly serviceavble MD-80's in the desert and sell hightly sought after 757's to Delta. They cannot argue limited capacity when they elected to limit it on the notion that AA flyers will put up with load factors in the high 80's......an unwise assumption IMHO.
 
ikramerica
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 8:05 am

Quoting Analog (Reply 9):
It sucks when you want to buy a last minute Y fare and there are no F seats to Y-up into.

Heck, a week out there are no Y-up seats on transcons and many IAH flights to major cities. Which of course, is boo hoo for elites (it's a privilege, not a right) but it's still tough to find any this summer.

CO has a lot of elites at this point. Maybe they have to start taking away the online ticket purchase elite bonus for deep discount Y seats, to thin out the herd. Of course, it would likely thin me out of the herd, too...  Wink
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
IAHFLYR
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 8:17 am

Quoting EWRCabincrew (Reply 10):
We have plans for when irregular operations impact our hubs (and other cities). We are rarely unprepared. For one instance, having a hub in a weather prone area, we are quick to make sure the operation runs as smoothly as possible during bad/severe weather.

As a very frequent CO traveler I'd have to completely agree with the above statement, CO recovers from irregular hub impacts very very quickly and fast in almost every case. WORK HARD, FLY RIGHT!  bigthumbsup 

Quoting Analog (Reply 9):
It sucks when you want to buy a last minute Y fare and there are no F seats to Y-up into.

I have been quite lucky so far (knock on wood) even from IAH, but the closest ticket I normally buy to travel date is about a week out so that may be a reason for my luck.

Keep packing them in CO! and glad to have had alot of travel to be a part in your August traffic.
Any views shared are strictly my own and do not a represent those of any former employer.
 
ikramerica
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 9:09 am

BTW - now that it's september, loads are down. There are last minute $250 R/T fares on ALL LAX-EWR-LAX transcons this weekend (travel saturday, return monday/tuesday). But all summer, my weekend webfare emails out of LAX would read "we are sorry, there are no deals for you this week" or something like that.

So, August was a big month, but now it's back to "normal."
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 9:46 am

Quoting N471WN (Reply 11):
Not true as they have knowingly and with malice and forethought elected to park perfectly serviceavble MD-80's in the desert and sell hightly sought after 757's to Delta

for good reason. Capacity glut was bleeding them dry, so backing down and converting assets to cash at a time when those assets are a high value point... is only smart.

MD80's no matter how well looked after are expensive to run. More so if you have lots of versions with commonality issues. Even better by running out some of the oldest now, they can save a rarer sub-type incase they need capacity again, or to replace the remains of the oldest MD-80 fleet subtype as its going out. From what I understand they were properly mothballed, and not just dumped for eventual scrapping.
 
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STT757
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 10:53 am

Quoting GoBoeing (Reply 5):
Continental Airlines is very strapped for lift right now.

They have plenty of 737s on order (plus 92 options), including 737-900ERs of which they are taking delivery of over a dozen in 2008.

Also in 2008 CO starts deploying Q-400s at EWR to replace ERJs on short haul (less than 500 mi) routes, it's an increase of 24-39 seats per flight vs an ERJ-135/145. Eventually the Q-400s will also deploy out of CLE and IAH.

[Edited 2007-09-06 03:56:42]
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
ikramerica
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 11:01 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 16):
They have plenty of 737s on order (plus 92 options), including 737-900ERs of which they are taking delivery of over a dozen in 2008.

But this summer, they were a bit short, and they will be retiring some old classics next year as new jets arrive, so it won't get that much better at first. 2009 will be good as 787-8s start arriving, trickling down to free up more lift as well.

This summer's load factors do indicate they need about 5% more lift, minimum, to be able to fill demand during peak travel periods. Otherwise, they risk losing customers. I, for example, flew other carriers this summer because getting a seat on CO was tough. This is something they don't want, a 5 year elite member looking elsewhere...
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
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STT757
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 11:04 am

Correct me if I'm wrong but I remember reading in one of CO's recent reports that they will be taking delivery of 18 737-900ERs in 2008, that's a nice boost even considering the 737-500s being sold.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
iaddca
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 11:21 am

Love their NE strategy. Instead of spreading out across JFK, BOS, and DCA, the way AA and DL have in a desperate grab for big city O&D, they've just kept tightly focused on EWR. As a result, they've got monopolies on EWR-BOS, EWR-DCA, and between 65 and 80 percent share from EWR to SEA, SFO, LAX, MIA/FLL, MCO, and TPA. Meanwhile, AA and DL are struggling with each other and B6 across the Hudson.
 
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STT757
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 11:24 am

Quoting Iaddca (Reply 19):
Love their NE strategy. Instead of spreading out across JFK, BOS, and DCA, the way AA and DL have in a desperate grab for big city O&D, they've just kept tightly focused on EWR. As a result, they've got monopolies on EWR-BOS, EWR-DCA, and between 65 and 80 percent share from EWR to SEA, SFO, LAX, MIA/FLL, MCO, and TPA. Meanwhile, AA and DL are struggling with each other and B6 across the Hudson.

CO is the largest airline in the NYC market, AA is #2. CO flies more people through EWR than AA does through EWR, JFK and LGA combined.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
IAHFLYR
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 11:26 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 17):
they will be retiring some old classics next year

I think that is turning the leases over to another operator.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 18):
737-500s being sold

Sold? I didn't know CO owned any of the B735's, only leased.
Any views shared are strictly my own and do not a represent those of any former employer.
 
iaddca
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 12:23 pm

Quoting IAHFLYR (Reply 21):

Sold? I didn't know CO owned any of the B735's, only leased.

They own 15 of the 63 they operate.
 
EWRCabincrew
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 12:26 pm

Quoting Iaddca (Reply 22):
They own 15 of the 63 they operate.

We are selling 10 of them to Transaero (Russian carrier).
You can't cure stupid
 
IFlyATA
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 8:42 pm

TZ's was up 3.8% in August, with a load factor of 91.3%...

But in July, it was 95.4%...quite a record for TZ.  Smile
ATA - an honestly different airline.
 
UAXDXer
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 9:33 pm

Quoting STT757 (Reply 16):
Also in 2008 CO starts deploying Q-400s at EWR to replace ERJs on short haul (less than 500 mi) routes, it's an increase of 24-39 seats per flight vs an ERJ-135/145. Eventually the Q-400s will also deploy out of CLE and IAH.

Still labor issues (Scope) to be worked out on the Q-400s as they have more than 50 seats.
It takes a bug to hit a windsheild but it takes guts to stick
 
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STT757
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 10:18 pm

Quoting UAXDXer (Reply 25):



Quoting UAXDXer (Reply 25):

Still labor issues (Scope) to be worked out on the Q-400s as they have more than 50 seats.

I was under the impression that only related to Jet aircraft, COEX used to operate ATR-72s from EWR up to 2001 or 2002. Those are over 50 seats.

COEX was flying ATR-72s when COEX was wholly owned by CO, why would a connection partner flying the Q-400 cause issues when COEX flying ATR-72s did not?

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[Edited 2007-09-06 15:21:46]
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
georgiaame
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Thu Sep 06, 2007 10:39 pm

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 2):
An 88% domestic load factor is insane. That is essentially every flight being full.

Ah the power of the free and open marketplace! It's called supply and demand. When supply was too high, and demand too low (i.e. post 9/11), the bottom fell out of the airline market. The airlines wised up, slashed supply (not to mention service, which did nothing to improve the general demand for their products), gritted their proverbial teeth, and here we are. The economy is booming, travel for both business and pleasure is in high demand, and seats are limited. And we are demanding better service (i.e. Y -> F upgrades).

It is interesting that Continental, which always has prided itself for better service (food, etc), has such high demand both domestically and internationally, and Southwest which actually provides lower cost, convenient, courteous, and ontime service are the two that are doing exceptionally well. If this is insane, I only hope the others try to emulate the inmates.

(OBTW: I flew Atlanta-CDG twice this summer, late June, and again last week, both with AF. 747 service on 4 legs, each of those 425 some odd seats were fully booked, and that included J. AF offers consistently great service in the air, and their planes are packed. The bean counters might want to do a little research on the matter)
"Trust, but verify!" An old Russian proverb, quoted often by a modern American hero
 
panamair
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Fri Sep 07, 2007 4:41 am

Quoting GeorgiaAME (Reply 27):
It is interesting that Continental, which always has prided itself for better service (food, etc), has such high demand both domestically and internationally, and Southwest which actually provides lower cost, convenient, courteous, and ontime service are the two that are doing exceptionally well. If this is insane, I only hope the others try to emulate the inmates.

Virtually all carriers are reporting record August numbers, even those with less than stellar service and operational performance. All one needs to do is to look at US Airways, which has been in an operational and service meltdown in many instances for the past few months, and yet continues to rake in the big bucks.....
 
Alias1024
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Fri Sep 07, 2007 4:49 am

Quoting UAXDXer (Reply 25):
Still labor issues (Scope) to be worked out on the Q-400s as they have more than 50 seats.

Scope in the pilot's contract only limits jets to 50 seats, not turboprops. Q400s are acceptable under the current scope clause.
It is a mistake to think you can solve any major problems with just potatoes.
 
SESGDL
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Fri Sep 07, 2007 4:53 am

Quoting STT757 (Reply 20):

CO is the largest airline in the NYC market, AA is #2. CO flies more people through EWR than AA does through EWR, JFK and LGA combined.

AA is now third in the NYC market according to the latest Port Authority statistics, B6 is now #2.

Jeremy
 
paladin87
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Fri Sep 07, 2007 4:59 am

Quoting Panamair (Reply 28):
Virtually all carriers are reporting record August numbers, even those with less than stellar service and operational performance. All one needs to do is to look at US Airways, which has been in an operational and service meltdown in many instances for the past few months, and yet continues to rake in the big bucks.....

Especially in Atlantic service. With the exception of AA it was a great month

CO up 15.2%
UAL up 8.8%
NWA up 16.1%
US up 22.8%
AA up 1.1%(Asia is down 21.0%)
 
movingtin
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Fri Sep 07, 2007 5:06 am

Quoting N471WN (Reply 11):
Not true as they have knowingly and with malice and forethought elected to park perfectly serviceavble MD-80's in the desert and sell hightly sought after 757's to Delta. They cannot argue limited capacity when they elected to limit it on the notion that AA flyers will put up with load factors in the high 80's......an unwise assumption IMHO.

Lots of intelligence in that statement!
 
panamair
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Fri Sep 07, 2007 5:21 am

Quoting Paladin87 (Reply 31):
Especially in Atlantic service. With the exception of AA it was a great month

CO up 15.2%
UAL up 8.8%
NWA up 16.1%
US up 22.8%
AA up 1.1%(Asia is down 21.0%)

You''re mixing up traffic (RPMs) and capacity (ASMs) in those figures above. E.g., CO's 15.2% growth was in RPM while NWA's 16.1% was the ASM growth rate.

Here's how the carriers stacked up in RPM and ASM growth in the Atlantic:

CO: RPM up 15.2%; ASM up 10.4%
UA: RPM up 8.8%; ASM up 7.5%
NW: RPM up 14.9%; ASM up 16.1% (resulting in a lower load factor)
US: RPM up 23.2%; ASM up 22.8%
AA: RPM up 0.7%; ASM up 1.0% (resulting in a lower load factor)
DL: RPM up 15.3%; ASM up 14.4%
 
ikramerica
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Fri Sep 07, 2007 5:40 am

And again, when you have an 88-90% load factor, at peak times, your flights are 100% booked, meaning you are turning away customers and creating problems accommodating customers with misconnects and weather delays.

This actually hurts long term bottom line by souring customers to your airline, and also decreases loyalties among customers who end up flying other carriers due to no other choice.

This summer I've been on AA, DL, B6, FL, US and CO due to lack of availability on CO, or availability of full-Y only fares when competitors still had discounted fares available (not deep discount, but hundreds less, and CO's service is not worth $300 extra on a 2.5 hour flight to me compared to DL).

Last summer, I flew CO for almost all flights, with one DL flight.

If CO wants to keep their customer base, they need to increase capacity by at least 5%, and that includes upsizing planes on some one a day routes, something they have been unable to do because of lack of aircraft and scope issues.

The Q400 will help, as will the 739ER. The Q400 will put 20 more seats on some ERJ routes, while the 739ER will take over for some 738 routes, which will take over for some 733/73G routes, which will take over for some 735 routes, which will be retired from the fleet. That's 10-20 extra seats trickling down through those 737 routes, or an increase of 7-15%, which should really help the system cope with next summer's demand.

But I think Thanksgiving and Christmas are going to be tight this year...

Quoting IAHFLYR (Reply 21):
I think that is turning the leases over to another operator.

They are retiring them from their fleet. It isn't relevant what happens to them next in this discussion.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Falcon84
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RE: WOW-Continental And Southwest August Traffic

Fri Sep 07, 2007 12:15 pm

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 2):
An 88% domestic load factor is insane. That is essentially every flight being full.

And I feel like I worked every one of those full flights.  Big grin

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 3):
yep, hard to get seats, hard to get seats at a reasonable price (not cheap) and no chance for upgrades.

they need more planes...

Not really. A carrier needs to be very careful about having too many planes or seats. While CO can add some capacity, overding it will hurt in the long run. We're not trying to be another UA or DL with aircraft everywhere. We focus on where we're the strongest, and go from there.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 8):
That 88% while showing CO (and the other airlines too had extremely high LF's over the summer) also indicates how tight the line is between operating efficiently and being unprepared to handle irregular operations.

Very true. And I'll put our ability at CO to recover from irregular ops against any other carrier's in the U.S. I think we do the best job of recovery.

Quoting UAXDXer (Reply 25):
Still labor issues (Scope) to be worked out on the Q-400s as they have more than 50 seats.



Quoting STT757 (Reply 26):
I was under the impression that only related to Jet aircraft,



Quoting Alias1024 (Reply 29):
Scope in the pilot's contract only limits jets to 50 seats, not turboprops. Q400s are acceptable under the current scope clause.

And there you have it on that one.  Big grin

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 34):
And again, when you have an 88-90% load factor, at peak times, your flights are 100% booked, meaning you are turning away customers and creating problems accommodating customers with misconnects and weather delays.

During busy months, if your aircraft are full, no matter how many you have, that will be true. That doesn't mean you add unnecessary capacity just for "what if". You deal with reality, adn the fleet you have. And you're not turning away anyone. If your flight is full, there are always other choices.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 34):
If CO wants to keep their customer base, they need to increase capacity by at least 5%

CO plans to increase its growth by about 5% a year, so you're thinking just like CO.
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