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deltadawg
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FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Thu Sep 06, 2007 12:24 pm

With FL's recent expansions from MKE, LAS & IND leaves me wondering what they may be thinking of doing since the demise of the YX deal and the inability to expand much more if any from MDW?

LAS - seems to be becoming the next MCO, just in the west. Could it become their western hub?

IND - their western routes seem to be doing ok and now with the IND route added could they be getting ready for the new terminal and major expansion?

MKE - putting pressure on YX? Could they end up with a bunch of gates in MKE. I cannot see Joe spending money to drive YX under just to get the gates but what is the plan?

Thoughts anyone?
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MKENut
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Thu Sep 06, 2007 12:53 pm

Quoting DeltaDAWG (Thread starter):
MKE - putting pressure on YX? Could they end up with a bunch of gates in MKE. I cannot see Joe spending money to drive YX under just to get the gates but what is the plan?

MKE expansion is only seasonal right now and won't start until the end of December. IMHO, FL will have to do more than just seasonal routes for me to consider it serious expansion. We will just have to wait and see if Joe wants to try to put YX under. He will have to do more than just seasonal routes to accomplish the task.  Smile
 
iowaman
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Thu Sep 06, 2007 1:12 pm

Quoting DeltaDAWG (Thread starter):
LAS - seems to be becoming the next MCO, just in the west. Could it become their western hub?

LAS will be tough with the current gate situation. Also there isn't a whole lot of opportunity in the west and midwest as WN/G4/HP plus the others to their respecetive hubs have it covered. Near transcons are probably the best bet, but even those are becoming well served.
 
Indy
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Thu Sep 06, 2007 1:34 pm

IND isn't really growing. It is really nothing but adding and subtracting routes and adding and subtracting frequencies. I believe they are at the same place they were last year in terms of number of daily departures and the way it stands right now will be unchanged into spring.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
B752OS
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 12:35 am

Quoting Indy (Reply 3):
IND isn't really growing. It is really nothing but adding and subtracting routes and adding and subtracting frequencies. I believe they are at the same place they were last year in terms of number of daily departures and the way it stands right now will be unchanged into spring.

How about flihgts to BOS from IND? Both cities are decent sized operations for FL.
 
SpencerII
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 12:54 am

Quoting Indy (Reply 3):
IND isn't really growing. It is really nothing but adding and subtracting routes and adding and subtracting frequencies. I believe they are at the same place they were last year in terms of number of daily departures and the way it stands right now will be unchanged into spring.

From a market planning and revenue builder standpoint, IND is a major "soft" market. In the past most airalines who have attempted to focus on IND "get burned" with yield at the end of the day. WN keeps fares very much in check at IND, and pretty much controls fares to most destinations out of IND-- they are the pacesetter for fares and if you try anyting to bring the yields up at IND, WN will hit you right where it hurts.

As far as anyone buidling a "true" hub at IND, I think that all passed the day ATA said good bye to IND.
 
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TZTriStar500
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 12:59 am

Quoting Spencerii (Reply 5):
As far as anyone buidling a "true" hub at IND, I think that all passed the day ATA said good bye to IND.

IND was never an ATA hub and primarily O&D markets only except for a 3 month failed hub experiment in early 2005.
35 years of American Trans Air/ATA Airlines, 1973-2008. A great little airline that will not be soon forgotten.
 
SpencerII
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 1:05 am

Quoting TZTriStar500 (Reply 6):
only except for a 3 month failed hub experiment in early 2005.

Thats exactly the point. It never worked then, and will not work now. Ask any airline planning department about IND!
 
quickmover
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 1:19 am

Quoting MKENut (Reply 1):
MKE expansion is only seasonal right now and won't start until the end of December. IMHO, FL will have to do more than just seasonal routes for me to consider it serious expansion. We will just have to wait and see if Joe wants to try to put YX under. He will have to do more than just seasonal routes to accomplish the task.

I don't think they are doing anything that they don't think they can make money at. FL had a chance to do alot of due dilligence on MKE over the last year. My guess is they found some profitable niche markets up there. FL hasn't taken any new jets this summer, so how could they really add routes unless something else is dropped. I think they take a dozen or so 737s next year, so that's when we'll know where they will grow.
 
burnsie28
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 2:04 am

Quoting Spencerii (Reply 5):
From a market planning and revenue builder standpoint, IND is a major "soft" market. In the past most airalines who have attempted to focus on IND "get burned" with yield at the end of the day.

NW, IND's largest carrier by far is doing quite alright.

In fact Air Tran isn't even the second largest carrier at IND, and have been somewhat getting it handed to them.

Here in the order YTD enplanement of passengers

1. Northwest 588,057
2. US Airways 344,542
3. Air Tran 300,446
4. Southwest 295,838
5. American 282,070
6. Delta 188,792
7. United 183,651
8. Continental 154,441
9. Frontier 89,271
10. Air Canada 9,914
11. ATA 2,351
12. Allegiant 568

[Edited 2007-09-06 19:22:36]
 
Tornado82
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 2:45 am

Quoting B752OS (Reply 4):

How about flihgts to BOS from IND? Both cities are decent sized operations for FL.

If IND-BOS had even more room to grow (it already has a half dozen or so RJ's combined from US and NW) I'm sure B6 would have snatched it up during their big expansion phase when they hit nearby PIT and CMH.

Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 9):

Here in the order YTD enplanement of passengers

I'm shocked that FL is that high in all honesty. Although WN is quite weak at IND compared to some other stations.
 
Indy
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 3:28 am

Quoting Spencerii (Reply 5):
WN keeps fares very much in check at IND, and pretty much controls fares to most destinations out of IND-- they are the pacesetter for fares and if you try anyting to bring the yields up at IND, WN will hit you right where it hurts.

You are almost right on it. You just have the letters backwards. At IND it is NW that does this. They like to try and price out the competition. IND-LAS had been running $400 r/t on NW. FL is adding the route in Dec and NW promptly drops the fare to $178 r/t. I'm still waiting for them to add the 2nd daily n/s to LAS. They did the same thing when FL added LAX and SFO. That is why nobody is going to open a hub here. It is hard to operate when NW plays like that.
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burnsie28
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 3:30 am

I think FL dropped SFO from IND completely now, is that correct, but NW still operates it.
 
chase
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 3:33 am

Quoting Spencerii (Reply 5):
WN keeps fares very much in check at IND, and pretty much controls fares to most destinations out of IND

I don't disagree with you here, but I'm kind of floored if this is the case, since WN only flies to 8 destinations n/s from IND.
 
burnsie28
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 4:20 am

Quoting Chase (Reply 13):
I don't disagree with you here, but I'm kind of floored if this is the case, since WN only flies to 8 destinations n/s from IND.

I'll disagree with him.

WN serves: LAS, BWI, MCI, JAC, MCO, TPA, MDW, PHX

NW serves: LAS, LAX, SFO, SEA, MSP, DEN, MCI, DTW, PHL, DCA, LGA, BOS, BDL, RDU, TPA, MCO, FLL, MEM, RSW, and rumored return of DFW, AUS, and PHX.

So WN serves just 5 routes of NW's 19 ns service cities.
 
Tornado82
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 4:31 am

Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 14):
and rumored return of DFW, AUS, and PHX.

DFW needs more service? Or is this just more of this bickering between AA and NWA?

PHX would become a 3way battle then wouldn't it? US, WN, NW? Seems like an awful lot of service for that route.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 4:35 am

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 10):
If IND-BOS had even more room to grow (it already has a half dozen or so RJ's combined from US and NW) I'm sure B6 would have snatched it up during their big expansion phase when they hit nearby PIT and CMH.

If FL cannot succeed on MDW-BOS, I'd be shocked if they can make IND-BOS work. BOS seems to be a problem for them, not just from the midwest but more generally.

Quoting MKENut (Reply 1):
We will just have to wait and see if Joe wants to try to put YX under.

Do you think Joe is stupid enough to try it? I know FL has done some pretty boneheaded things, but that would take the cake.
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TZTriStar500
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 5:32 am

Quoting SpencerII (Reply 7):
Thats exactly the point. It never worked then, and will not work now. Ask any airline planning department about IND!

I completely agree and was not attempting to be the contrarian. However, there are many people on a.net including in this discussion that think there is some huge untapped market here that would support a large 100+ flight FL or NW buildup to far off cities, but they won't listen.
35 years of American Trans Air/ATA Airlines, 1973-2008. A great little airline that will not be soon forgotten.
 
burnsie28
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 6:38 am

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 15):
DFW needs more service? Or is this just more of this bickering between AA and NWA?

PHX would become a 3way battle then wouldn't it? US, WN, NW? Seems like an awful lot of service for that route.

Notice I said return, NW flew all of these routes before but dropped them to re-align aircraft after lease rejections. NW flew IND-DFW over two years ago now.
 
MKENut
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 8:29 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 16):
Do you think Joe is stupid enough to try it? I know FL has done some pretty boneheaded things, but that would take the cake.

Actually Joe and company have said they don't want to destroy YX, instead they wanted to buy them during their hostile takeover attempt. So that tells me they think they can destroy YX if they choose to.
 
LASoctoberB6
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:25 am

Quoting DeltaDAWG (Thread starter):

LAS - seems to be becoming the next MCO, just in the west. Could it become their western hub?

i'd hope not....i dont feel like seeing FL in and out of LAS..
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citrus1
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:54 am

Quoting TZTriStar500 (Reply 17):
I completely agree and was not attempting to be the contrarian. However, there are many people on a.net including in this discussion that think there is some huge untapped market here that would support a large 100+ flight FL or NW buildup to far off cities, but they won't listen.

The most intelligent statement on this dumb thread.
 
citrus1
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:59 am

Quoting Quickmover (Reply 8):
I don't think they are doing anything that they don't think they can make money at. FL had a chance to do alot of due dilligence on MKE over the last year. My guess is they found some profitable niche markets up there. FL hasn't taken any new jets this summer, so how could they really add routes unless something else is dropped. I think they take a dozen or so 737s next year, so that's when we'll know where they will grow.

2ND Most intelligent statement.
 
Indy
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 12:59 pm

Quoting TZTriStar500 (Reply 17):
I completely agree and was not attempting to be the contrarian. However, there are many people on a.net including in this discussion that think there is some huge untapped market here that would support a large 100+ flight FL or NW buildup to far off cities, but they won't listen.

However people seemed to think MKE would have no problem with it despite having a smaller market. As long as NW operates the way they do here nobody besides NW has a chance at such an operation. You see it with the way they approached LAX and SFO when FL added it and how they are now pricing LAS since FL added it. Remember this area has supported a 100+ flight operation for US in the past. If NW made IND a hub (which they won't) it would support the numbers. But since they aren't it doesn't matter. As long as they keep their operation the way they do nobody else can even try. So that really doesn't matter either. Short of NW going back to flying only MEM, MSP and DTW nothing is changing here. FL will struggle to maintain 14 to 16 flights a day. NW will stay where they are with control of the market. They may add some routes like PDX, AUS, DFW, MSY or whatever but I suspect much of their future additions from here will involve Compass.

IND finds itself in a strange position where competition is both good and bad. We get most of the top nonstop destinations in the U.S. at good prices. But because of this it keeps anyone from being able to run a profitable hub here which keeps out nonstop service to smaller cities. For me it works out great. NW serves most of the places nonstop taht I'd go to. And if I want mileage runs I have plenty of affordable choices. If you like mileage runs this is the place to live.

Just wanted to summarize my current thinking. While I do believe that IND --- COULD --- support a 100+ flight operation for any one of the two airlines you mention the current dynamics at IND would NOT allow it. And I see no change to that coming any time in the near future (current to 5 years).
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
airbusaddict
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 1:16 pm

Does anyone know who is assigned to what gates at IND's new terminal, im guessing they all have maybe the same amount of gates as they did at the old terminal.

Just to throw in something:
RUMOR, again, this is just a rumor, but Air Tran might be starting 1x Daily Flight either between ATL or LAS to FSD.
I heard it from someone at the ticket counters here in Sioux Falls...
Finally F9! FSD-DEN 7-4-2011
 
USPIT10L
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 1:22 pm

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 10):
If IND-BOS had even more room to grow (it already has a half dozen or so RJ's combined from US and NW) I'm sure B6 would have snatched it up during their big expansion phase when they hit nearby PIT and CMH.

Don't forget about DL. PITBOS is not a market DL would jump on, witness B6's problems with the route. Besides, considering DL's recent moves at BOS, IND is a long-shot but not out of the question.
It's a Great Day for Hockey!
 
Indy
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 1:30 pm

I think BOS may be over served from here as it is I doubt anyone adds new service on that route.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
Tornado82
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 3:49 pm

Quoting USPIT10L (Reply 25):

Don't forget about DL. PITBOS is not a market DL would jump on, witness B6's problems with the route. Besides, considering DL's recent moves at BOS, IND is a long-shot but not out of the question.

I never said anyone else is going to pick up PIT-BOS, what I was getting at was that when B6 was busy adding every airstrip within an E190 distance of JFK/BOS, the same wave that added PIT-BOS and CMH-BOS... they would have also added IND-BOS *IF* it was some underserved market with a need for more seats. It's not, it's already saturated.

Quoting Indy (Reply 26):
I think BOS may be over served from here as it is I doubt anyone adds new service on that route.

When my man Indy thinks a route from IND is over served, it's definitely over served.  Silly

Quoting Airbusaddict (Reply 24):


Just to throw in something:
RUMOR, again, this is just a rumor, but Air Tran might be starting 1x Daily Flight either between ATL or LAS to FSD.
I heard it from someone at the ticket counters here in Sioux Falls...

Off topic, irrelevant, and not true. If nothing else FL doesn't open stations to go 1x... and would a 717 even make FSD-ATL reliably without restrictions? Although it wouldn't matter, it would only have 50 pax in it and the restriction would be covered.
 
Indy
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Fri Sep 07, 2007 6:06 pm

Quoting Tornado82 (Reply 27):
When my man Indy thinks a route from IND is over served, it's definitely over served. Silly

What are you trying to say? lol  Smile

Honestly that entire region is pretty saturated. Fill in the gaps if I miss anything.

BDL - NW
BOS - US & NW
PHL - US & NW
EWR - CO
LGA - US & NW
JFK - DL
DCA - US & NW
IAD - UA
BWI - WN

It will be difficult for any airline to try and add service from IND to that region of the country.

Anyone know when NW upgraded one of the LGA flights to an A319?
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
Cubsrule
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Sat Sep 08, 2007 1:29 am

Quoting MKENut (Reply 19):
Actually Joe and company have said they don't want to destroy YX, instead they wanted to buy them during their hostile takeover attempt. So that tells me they think they can destroy YX if they choose to.

NW tried awfully hard, and they couldn't. Why does Joe think FL is different?
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
CitrusCritter
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Sat Sep 08, 2007 1:47 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 29):
NW tried awfully hard, and they couldn't. Why does Joe think FL is different?

I don't know where you get the he said that they could. That being said, it has been said that YX only has a few routes which represent the large majority of their profit. After the due diligence, FL now knows what those routes are for sure, so they would be able to come in and undercut YX, thereby cutting into the YX yield.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Sat Sep 08, 2007 1:52 am

Quoting CitrusCritter (Reply 30):
After the due diligence, FL now knows what those routes are for sure, so they would be able to come in and undercut YX, thereby cutting into the YX yield.

Obviously, I haven't done the same due diligence with respect to YX that AAI has. But I can make some pretty good guesses about YX's most important routes ex-MKE, and NW covered (and WAY undersold) YX on each of them early in the last focus city effort. Yet, the effect on YX was minimal. FL enjoys lower costs, but their systemwide RASM is far lower than NW's, meaning that they don't have as much money coming in from elsewhere in the system to sustain a prolonged attempt to bleed YX.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
CitrusCritter
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:01 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 31):

I would also say that any belief that FL could put YX under was based on the assumption that YX remained a stand-alone company. As they now have TPG's financial resources, it would be hard to fathom FL, or anyone including WN for that matter, putting such a hurt on YX as to cause them to fold.

There are also some other dynamics to consider. YX had product differentiation from NW at that time. Now, their product differentiation is not so clear cut. Yes, more J-type seats than everyone else, but not for all passengers now. YX has some serious product dilution by going to two types of seating in all planes. There will undoubtedly be a group of flyers who will no longer fly YX now as they perceive them to be "just another airline" with these changes. Whether that is actually true is immaterial.

YX's competitive advantage has been their product differentiation, which is no longer there to such a significant degree. NW and/or FL could probably ramp up MKE and see much more success, but neither could bleed YX dry now because of TPG's financial backing.
 
Cubsrule
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:16 am

Quoting CitrusCritter (Reply 32):
YX's competitive advantage has been their product differentiation, which is no longer there to such a significant degree.

I agree to a point. Signature seating is a part of YX's product differentiation. But it's not all of it. Look at the AL and OO route maps. Cities like RDU, CLT, and BNA don't fill their planes with passengers connecting to the west coast (or minor Wisconsin and Michigan markets). There's local traffic there too. Those folks get the same crappy seat as people who fly any other carrier. At CLT, it's worse. Local passengers can fly red, white, and blue ZW CRJs or blue OO CRJs (and I guarantee US will be cheaper). What's the difference? There's something more there, something some might define as cookies. But who would pay $50-$100 for a cookie? We're still missing something.

Fair or not, YX has this aura around them, and it's something that most employees (one AL employee who lurks on a.net excepted) work hard to preserve. YX employees smile. YX employees go out of their way to help customers. YX employees care, in a way that the employees of a lot of other carriers don't. FL or NW or anyone can undersell YX all they want, but they cannot replicate YX's perceived committment to MKE.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
MKENut
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:57 am

Quoting CitrusCritter (Reply 30):
I don't know where you get the he said that they could. That being said, it has been said that YX only has a few routes which represent the large majority of their profit. After the due diligence, FL now knows what those routes are for sure, so they would be able to come in and undercut YX, thereby cutting into the YX yield.

Aren't those identified routes slot restricted routes to the East Coast?
 
CitrusCritter
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RE: FL's Plans For IND, MKE, LAS?

Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:17 am

Quoting MKENut (Reply 34):
Aren't those identified routes slot restricted routes to the East Coast?

Well that would assume that all those routes are to LGA and DCA. I doubt that's the case, but I could be wrong. FL could reassign some of their LGA slots -- 17 daily ATL-LGA last I counted. DCA they're not going to give up any slots to go fight for MKE, but they feasibly could go after LGA if they wanted.

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