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Stitch
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Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:36 am

Note - I have received permission from the moderators to start a new thread on the 787 Program Update provided by the Boeing Company on September 5, 2007 as the current one has exceeded 200 posts.


**************

On Wednesday, September 5th, senior Boeing executives involved with the 787 program provided a conference call update. Highlights/lowlights of the call include:


  • First flight for LN0001 could be as late as November 2007 at this time.
  • Boeing has lost partial configuration control of the non-flight-specified fasteners used to get the plane ready for the 07/08/07 premiere and this is taking time to correct and document.
  • Many of the primary sub-assemblies delivered to PAE were well below the production standard Boeing expected, even knowing they would not be "production ready". As such, even with the additional staff they had in place to handle the work, there is more then they expected and it is taking longer as they can only put so many people on it.
  • LN0002 through LN0006 continue to progress at the respective factories in Japan, Italy and the US.
  • Boeing has delayed delivery of the primary sub-assemblies for those planes, allowing the workers to continue to bring them closer and closer to "production standard", which will reduce the amount of work needed at PAE prior to final assembly.
  • LN0001 through LN0004, all with Rolls-Royce Trent power, should be in flight-test and certification support by January 2008 and will handle the bulk of the certification and flight-test duties for the 787 program.
  • LN0005 and LN0006, both with GEnx power, will concentrate mostly on systems testing and certification for GEnx aircraft.
  • Boeing has performed a great deal of the testing and certification that does not need a plane in the air already. This will allow LN0001-LN0006 to concentrate on actual flight-related test and certification duties.
  • The third and final 787 drop test from last month was a success and has validated Boeing's crash analysis computer models (I am guessing to the satisfaction of the regulatory agencies since that is how Boeing will provide crash certification, I believe).
  • At this time, Boeing expects to deliver LN0007, the first "production" 787, to NH in May 2008 as contracted.
  • August 2007 was the best sales month for the 787, with over 200 sold.


***********

Discuss!  Smile
 
blackknight
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 11:47 am

What is Revolutionary?
The term "Revolutionary" has many interpretations in the context of a multitude of recognized fields of endeavor. It is not unusual for synergy between seemingly unrelated disciplines to inspire creative paradigm changes resulting in "Revolutionary" breakthroughs. In the context of a focus on advanced concepts, NIAC defines "Revolutionary" as possessing one or more of the following six attributes:

1. The genius is in the generalities, and not the details.
2. The new idea illuminates a pathway toward an expansion of knowledge and may address a significant roadblock.
3. It inspires others to produce useful science and further elaboration of the fundamental idea.
4. It contributes to a major change in the framework of aerospace possibilities,
5. It triggers a transformation of intuition.
6. Revolutionary paradigm shifts are simple, elegant, majestic, beautiful and characterized by order and symmetry.

This is not my definition but NASA's @ http://www.niac.usra.edu/revolutionary.html

1. The 787 is the first wide body full composite airliner. With no bi-pass air.
2. Full assembly of stuffed sub-sections from around the globe. The addressing of ramp rash on composites. The addressing all electrical systems and no bleed air. Composite knowledge will now be learned and used on all new jetliners to greater extents than the 787 (Except the A350 which suffers from the lack of knowledge to do so)
3. The amount of Composites on airliners will only go up because of the 787. The A350 was made to adjust to composite sections to be competitive.
4. Fully electrical designs open the window ot a host of passenger related possibilities. Also composites will last years longer and provide a useful airliner with less costly maintenance.
5. Like stated before the A350 changed from metal to composite to match the 787. All new airliners will be composite.
6. Unlike what most on anet want to hear. The 787 is a simple revolutionary change in how airliners are manufactured. To simple for those whom pom pom do not have its manufactures name on them.

Also the 787 will go down in the history books as revolutionary regardless of any opinion here. Search the NASA site. It has already been decided. Any further discussions are welcome and expected. Arguing why you don't agree with the experts at NASA is like crying over split milk. I welcome any additions also.
BK
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 11:53 am

From Part 2:

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 209):
Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 206):
Everything is derivative.

Not so. Raytheon were the first to have a composite fuse aircraft! ATR were the first to use a composite wing box. As for your example, it is not even close... wheels vs logs allowed much greater speed and mobility... there was a huge leap, a revolutionary leap. Please point out where the 787 will have the same revolutionary effect!!

The word "revolutionary" is hyperbole, but the 787 is a significant advance in commercial aviation. I put it on par with the 707 as a milestone in the evolution of jet transports. You seem to argue that it's all been done before, but it hasn't all been combined at once in a project of this significance...not even close.

It's a matter of degree and of audacity. I appreciate just how far Boeing is pushing the envelope in all aspects of manufacture - materials, industrial methods, and use of software tools. Add to that the unprecedentedly short time span from announcement to planned EIS (the primary thrust of this entire discussion has been disbelief that Boeing can accomplish all this in such a short time). Take all this together, and you've got to appreciate that Boeing is doing something very different this time. Each element of the achievement has a precedent, but the combination of all these elements on such a scale is an achievement in and of itself.

The end result is not a revolution in air travel, but it does mark a change in the way we will build airliners from now on.

(My apologies to Stitch for not returning to the specific topic).
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
lorgem1
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 11:54 am

Quoting Stitch (Thread starter): Many of the primary sub-assemblies delivered to PAE were well below the production standard Boeing expected, even knowing they would not be "production ready". As such, even with the additional staff they had in place to handle the work, there is more then they expected and it is taking longer as they can only put so many people on it.

Maybe Boeing should have placed a portion of this 'additional staff' as QA/QC inspectors at the suppliers plants to mitigate a 'not ready production ' state and eliminate a "below the production standard Boeing expected". Let's face it Boeing RUSHED their suppliers to meet the 7/8/7 date. It even included a 'pass' on 'stuffing' as per the contract. It is impossible for such an industry leader to not apply QC at its vendors such as it did at Vought?? So as quoted by Stitch and others, all the succeeding sub-assemblies should arrive at PAE 'stuffed' as per contract and hence the DELAY in arrivals of same. If I was a guessing man, I'd guess the real problem is in the mating software of each suppliers' sections.
 
trex8
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 11:58 am

Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
August 2007 was the best sales month for the 787, with over 200 sold.

that doesn't sound right, and their website shows no orders in August and 47 in July and 236 sold Jan through August.
 
blackknight
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 12:04 pm

Fair use exerts from the experts:


2005: The Year in Technology
NASA Tech Briefs, Dec 2005
In 2005, NASA's space shuttle fleet returned to flight following a two-and-a-half-year wait. The year was also marked by a record hurricane season that required all currently available technologies for storm prediction, tracking, and response - and even some new technologies. Other milestones were reached this year in the launch of Boeing's revolutionary new 787 Dreamliner, and in the development of other technologies with potential impact that reaches far beyond the coming year.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3957/is_200512/ai_n15936120

The 787 features lighter weight construction. Its materials (by weight) are: 50% composite, 20% aluminum, 15% titanium, 10% steel, 5% other.[28] Composite materials are significantly lighter and stronger than traditional aircraft materials, making the 787 a very light aircraft for its capabilities.[29] By volume, the 787 will be 80% composite. Each 787 contains approximately 35 tonnes of carbon fiber reinforced plastic, made with 23 tonnes of carbon fiber.[30

It will also be the first major airliner to use composite material for most of its construction.[5]

Engine interchangeability
The two types of engines compatible with the 787 will use a standard electrical interface, potentially allowing any aircraft to be fitted with Rolls-Royce or GE engines at any time. This flexibility will allow an airline to switch from one manufacturer to the other in the event of technological developments that conform more closely to their operating profile. Boeing's goal is to make changing engine types as simple as a standard same-manufacturer replacement.

Revolutionary 787 fleet support program

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_787

Aviation - The shape of wings to come

Such a revolution would require a new generation of smaller, lighter, quieter airliners. Enter the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, a new low-cost, 200-seater twin-jet. The 787's engine and airframe design will reduce fuel consumption - and emissions - by as much as 20%, which is vital if the plane is to fly into airports in city centres.

http://technology.newscientist.com/article/dn7552

Top 10 Most Notable-Looking Post-War Aircraft


Credit: The Boeing Company @ #4 Boeing 787 Dreamliner
http://www.aviation.com/travel/top10-notablepostwar-1.html


The Battle Between Airbus And Boeing

"Why Airbus is losing altitude" (News: European Business, June 20) was an interesting article that highlighted the current problems encountered by the leader in civil aviation manufacture. In the same issue of the magazine there is an article lauding Boeing and its 787 Dreamliner ("A plastic dream machine," News: The United States, June 20).

We have to look at both articles more closely. If we look at technology, Boeing, which has been dragging its feet for years, is trying to make a quantum leap to have the 787 become the first large composite civil airliner. Composite materials are a major part of the A380 strategy: The all-important central caisson of this plane is composite, as are many other major components, but the body and wings are still mostly aluminum. Boeing's 787 Dreamliner isn't flying yet, and revolutionary new technologies can lead to delays, as Airbus is discovering. The A380 is flying and will enter service, if a little late, in 18 months time. The wonderful new composite technology used in the B787 that may change this won't be flying in Boeing's livery until late 2008.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_28/c3942131_mz030.htm
BK
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 12:16 pm

Quoting Elger (Reply 1):
The part 2 is still not archived. As long this does not happen, some people will continue to post there, confusing the issues !!

I did post a link in that thread.

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 5):
that doesn't sound right, and their website shows no orders in August and 47 in July and 236 sold Jan through August.

You're right. I meant to say 2007 was the best year.  embarrassed 

If Boeing has sold 200 787s in August, nobody would have cared about anything else Mike B. said on Wednesday. Big grin
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 12:17 pm

Quoting Trex8 (Reply 5):
that doesn't sound right, and their website shows no orders in August and 47 in July and 236 sold Jan through August.

"Could be as late as November 2007" doesn't sound quite right either, but no point in being picky  Smile

Cheers
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 12:21 pm

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 8):
"Could be as late as November 2007" doesn't sound quite right either, but no point in being picky.  Smile

I recall November as being the date while listening to the conference call. *shrug*
 
scrubbsywg
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 12:36 pm

they said first flight would be anywhere from mid november to mid december in the call.

Did they also not mention that the static test frame would be completed before LN002, a change from previous plans.
 
sh0rtybr0wn
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 12:53 pm

I think Boeing can pull this off. I like the strategy: Do all the ground testing that is possible right now, and once the 787s start to fly, fly them nonstop until May.

Boeing should try very hard to make the may 2008 Delivery date. Think of the confidence it would inspire in their next all composite project(737RS), and in the -10 / -11 or whatever else.
 
scrubbsywg
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 1:14 pm

They aren't really doing any ground testing right now. They are busy putting the plane together to get it ready for ground tests and later onto flight tests. Boeing has its plan for testing, and i doubt that the actual testing procedure is changing other than being compressed further. I hope there is lots of updates with respect to the flight testing. It will be interesting to read about what is happening and when.
 
NAV20
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 1:17 pm

Quoting BlackKnight (Reply 6):
Such a revolution would require a new generation of smaller, lighter, quieter airliners.

I rather suspect that the 'revolution' is only just starting. Until quite recently, increased fuel economy through reduced weight was seen as the primary benefit that it offers. Even informed industry opinion reckoned that all-composite construction was mainly going to be relevant to midsize ultra-longhaul types - that the extra cost and complication would rule out applying the technology to city-hopping single-aisles, because improved fuel economy has much less effect on operating cost for those.

Now some other advantages are emerging - in particular the fact that the strength of the new material appears to be exceeding all expectations (witness the 'unbreakable' 787 wing). It also seems likely that the new material will reach a 'fatigue floor' at which it will stabilise, allowing a given aeroplane safely to accumulate far more pressurisation/de-pressurisation cycles than aluminium types can. That won't be 'proved out' until fatigue testing of the 787 is completed; but my guess is that Boeing will seek to continue that testing to maybe double the 'normal' number of cycles.

City-hoppers accumulate cycles much more quickly than longhaul types; and often have to be retired not because they show any sign of being worn out, but because the 'book' says that they've reached the end of their working life. So, if it can be shown that all-composite construction can increase (for argument's sake, maybe double?) that working life, the method will HAVE to be extended to cover all types of pressurised civil aircraft very quickly.

There have really been only two fundamental 'step-changes' in civil airliner design - stressed-skin aluminium construction in the 1930s, and jet propulsion in the 1950s. It could very well be that all-composite construction (always assuming that Boeing manage to pull it off) will one day prove to have been the third one.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
ebbuk
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 1:41 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 13):
It could very well be that all-composite construction (always assuming that Boeing manage to pull it off) will one day prove to have been the third one.

And will they pull it off NAV? Your unbiased opinion given that the issues Boeing has admitted to on the 787 sound serious even though they've communicated it in a muted fashion. Or is it just me?
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 1:47 pm

It occurred to me that there is a distinction between 'May 2008 EIS' and the less stringent 'May 2008 delivery'. I searched through Boeing's news archives, and I could not find anywhere that they promised anything else than delivery in May 2008. Usually, the press releases are worded even more appropriately, as "certification, EIS and delivery in 2008". All references to May 2008 EIS are from sources other than Boeing (the press, a.net, etc.)

I have added this distinction between delivery and EIS to my comparative timetable, originally posted in part 2 of this thread. Detailed notes provided in my previous post: Boeing Execs To Provide 787 Update, Part 2 (by IAD787 Sep 4 2007 in Civil Aviation)

The 787 EIS dates are now estimated by adding 3 weeks to the delivery date. The dates for power-on of the 777 and A380 are estimates because I only had the month when this milestone occurred, not the exact day.

I also added a chart for more intuitive (graphic?) comparison. I left the A380 out of the chart because it blew everything out of proportion (for obvious reasons ), and focused on the 777 to 787 comparison.

787 Timetable Comparison (updated)


Food for thought.

[edit]grammatical error[/edit]

[Edited 2007-09-07 06:49:52]
 
MD-90
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 2:02 pm

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 3):
Quoting Planemaker (Reply 209):
Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 206):
Everything is derivative.

Not so. Raytheon were the first to have a composite fuse aircraft! ATR were the first to use a composite wing box. As for your example, it is not even close... wheels vs logs allowed much greater speed and mobility... there was a huge leap, a revolutionary leap. Please point out where the 787 will have the same revolutionary effect!!

Careful how you word things. Burt Rutan was building all-composite aircraft long before the Starship was a gleam in Mrs. Beech's eye. The Windecker Eagle was, I believe, the first production composite aircraft built (I admit I could be wrong about this).

The first all-composite jet was built by Honda and Mississippi State University.
 
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ADent
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 2:10 pm

Was there any word on build rate? AvWk reported earlier they planned to have 40 aircraft (above test A/C) built by EIS date.
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 2:10 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 15):
I also added a chart for more intuitive (graphic?) comparison. I left the A380 out of the chart because it blew everything out of proportion (for obvious reasons ), and focused on the 777 to 787 comparison.

If you had data relating to the 747-400, it might be a little more representative of the 787 pickle. Power on occured well after rollout.

Regards,
 
Devilfish
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 2:15 pm

Quoting ScrubbsYWG (Reply 10):

Did they also not mention that the static test frame would be completed before LN002, a change from previous plans.



Quoting ScrubbsYWG (Reply 12):
They aren't really doing any ground testing right now. They are busy putting the plane together to get it ready for ground tests and later onto flight tests. Boeing has its plan for testing, and i doubt that the actual testing procedure is changing other than being compressed further. I hope there is lots of updates with respect to the flight testing. It will be interesting to read about what is happening and when.

What then does the news heading "Boeing says 787 fuselage test a success" mean?.....

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/cgi...vX8AAAEAACIzzOUAAAAD&modele=jdc_34

[Edited 2007-09-07 07:18:19]
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
planemaker
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 2:21 pm

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 3):
The word "revolutionary" is hyperbole, but the 787 is a significant advance in commercial aviation. I put it on par with the 707 as a milestone in the evolution of jet transports. You seem to argue that it's all been done before, but it hasn't all been combined at once in a project of this significance...not even close.

We agree... "revolutionary" is certainly hyperbole. In one of my original posts I said that the significance is that Boeing is combining a variety of proven technologies and processes into a large commercial airliner.

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 3):
The end result is not a revolution in air travel, but it does mark a change in the way we will build airliners from now on.

That it WAS a revolution in air travel is the point that was originally made by someone... and when he couldn't support the assertion he went off on this tangent of how revolutionary the aircraft is! However, apart from the high CFRP content, I don't agree that it does mark a change in the way we will build airliners from now on.

Quoting MD-90 (Reply 16):
Careful how you word things. Burt Rutan was building all-composite aircraft long before the Starship was a gleam in Mrs. Beech's eye.

Yes, I know. But he didn't use a mandrel to wind the CFRP around as Raytheon and, now, Boeing use... and that was the obvious point... not the use of CFRP.  Smile
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
Elger
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 2:22 pm

I have not seen this herenor on Part 2

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/09/06/ap4091000.html
Boeing Says 787 Fuselage Test a Success
By ELIZABETH M. GILLESPIE 09.06.07, 5:37 PM ET

Elger
 
NAV20
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 2:42 pm

Quoting Ebbuk (Reply 14):
And will they pull it off NAV? Your unbiased opinion given that the issues Boeing has admitted to on the 787 sound serious even though they've communicated it in a muted fashion. Or is it just me?

Short answer is, EbbUK, I don't know, and neither does anyone else.  Smile Not even Boeing management, everyone is working on 'estimates' for the moment.

Anything could happen in the next few months - up to and including 'catastrophic failure' of some part of the aeroplane during ground or flight testing.

So far, though, Boeing's problems seem to be entirely in the area of integrating the supply chain (particularly in the fields of fasteners and 'pre-stuffing') rather than any emerging design problems. Recent big successes for Boeing are that the 'out-sourced' parts all snapped together almost perfectly (in the case of the wings, literally perfectly) and that crash tests so far have vindicated both the design methods and the proposed evaluation techniques.

On present indications I'd put the chances of the underlying design proving itself valid at 95% or better. I see a bigger question-mark over whether Boeing can reach their planned 'one every three days' production rate on time (i.e. 2009 on) a shade lower; I see the chances as say 80% at the moment.
"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
 
Mach3
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 3:13 pm

Boeing will prevail!!!!! No other aircraft manufacture makes any finer aircraft. The longevity of Boeing aircraft is a proven fact!!!! The B-52 is over 50 yrs. Look at the years and thousands of hours the KC-135 has flown (really a 707), if you like it or not no other airplane maker can make that claim. How many European commercial aircraft are still flying in pax. service? 707, 727. 737-1 are still flying.

Boeing is just playing safe to make sure what they build is as good as they can make it from the start. Almost all aircraft have teething problems after introduction, some worse then others. The 787 will fly loner, better!

This new outsourcing program was bound to have problems, just like any other new manufacturing process, at last Boeing had the guts to attempt it, and in the long run will prove its ability to spread the load with others in the industry in development of new products. The 787 will be airborne is shoter time the the Whale Jet!
If you pull on the Tiger's tail, better be prepared for him to bite you in the ARSE
 
Danny
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 4:58 pm

Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
First flight for LN0001 could be as late as November 2007 at this time.

They said it could be as late as December and that is still optimistic.
 
keesje
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 6:23 pm

Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
Note - I have received permission from the moderators to start a new thread on the 787 Program Update provided by the Boeing Company on September 5, 2007 as the current one has exceeded 200 posts.

I started a less neutral titled thread: "Second Delay 787 Could Cause Certification Issues" a few hours BEFORE this one & it got deleted because of double post with reference to this one  Wow! This is a way things can be fixed. I think it is disrespecting everyone who added to it before deletion.

Quoting BlackKnight (Reply 1):
Also the 787 will go down in the history books as revolutionary regardless of any opinion here. Search the NASA site. It has already been decided.

 Smile Since when does (deeply involved) NASA determine what goes down as revolutionairy in History ?  Big grin

Lets leave that to to the public opinion over a longer term OK?

I think the 787 is a great aircraft but not a game changer and many with me.
http://www.airliners.net/discussions...general_aviation/read.main/2664716


Back to the topic I thing the analists / press are turning a soft eye at Boeing at this moment.. e.g. many are saying a two month delay.. in general I think the uncritical / carefull / respectfull way they are simply repeating what Carson / Bair / Randy say, without questioning is less then impressive journalism.

From what I heard it is possible composite structure was damaged when bad rivets were replaced on the 787.

New issues like this that delay the first flight could cause the FAA to have a deeper look at e.g. repair procedures / strenght testing involving damaged composites structures, requiring additional time.

Boeing said it has no remaining slack in the program if further issues surface.


http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...aerospace/2003871017_boeing06.html

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 21):
Quoting Ebbuk (Reply 14):
And will they pull it off NAV? Your unbiased opinion given that the issues Boeing has admitted to on the 787 sound serious even though they've communicated it in a muted fashion. Or is it just me?

Short answer is, EbbUK, I don't know, and neither does anyone else. Not even Boeing management, everyone is working on 'estimates' for the moment.

I think (hope) Boeing knows much more then they are communicating and that the analists / press are surprizingly soft / encouraging / understanding, like in this Seattle Times article on this second delay resulting into up to 4 months later start of flight testing.

I don´t share the IMO unfounded optimism with regards to entry into service of the 787.

- Composites aren´t easier to certify then metal fuselages, contrary.
- Compared to e.g. the 777 the 787 introduces more new systems / technology.
- The supply chain is probably less under control because Boeing outsourced more then just manufacturing.
- Completing a test program in winter conditions 24/7 with less aircraft isn´t the kind of solid time line I think the FAA likes.
- Many on a.net have been saying Boeing simply must speak the truth (legistation) & therefor it is the truth they are communicating. Boeing was very optimistic on the first flight for years but now has confirmed they were wrong twice. I think we have to spell out their words carefully & not fly blind on what they say again.

Adding all I don´t think flight testing / certification will require less time then on the 777 and a september / october 2008 delivery of the first Boeing 787 to ANA with restricted operational capabilities doesn´t seem an unlikely / unreasonable scenario to me. I hope a production ramp up after that will be realized (remember that´s where A380
problems started..).

I'm 100% sure Boeing & the FAA will do a good job on the testing & certification of the 787. Safety First remains the most important guideline in Aerospace. As a result time to market is less important.

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
andhen
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 6:29 pm

I think that Boeing will push forward the first flight date even further when we come to mid december. If the plane flies in mid december, I guess we will see the same push forward of first delivery. Its inevetable, use your logic sence, you can't have first flight in december and first delivery in May..

Regarding the dates Boeing gives; why can't they just give one date? Like 15. December, any flight before this would be a bonus.. I think that this shows weakness in the whole program. Has it ever struck you that there is something fishy going around here, I will not refer to my earlier posts in this post (Ooops, I just did..), because when I do, my posts seems to be very quickly deleted..?

Andhen
a332/3, 773-ER
 
parapente
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 7:17 pm

Firstly no aircraft can be described as revolutionary until it does what its supposed to do - AIRcraft. There is a clue in there somewhere. Having said that -and I am sure it will fly safely,then yes it is revolutionary in all the ways discussed. It's design (IMHO) leaves two further/last (revolutionary) areas to be explored.
1. Engines. Boeing quite rightly took a conservative route when choosing the engines. We know that that the 737 must and will have a step change here. Boeing (and Airbus) have said that design alone cannot yeild the 15% plus efficiencies demanded.The good thing for the 787 is that the engine installation is "modular". I feel that in around 10-15 years the 787 will enjoy a second lease of life with these new more radical engines. By then it will perhaps be seen as the greatest ever post war aircraft. It will only be eclipsed by:
2.A totally new approach to aircraft design.One that will in its own right improve overall performance by 20 plus%. One that will reduce ground noise by a factor of 50% i.e BWB or Honeydew , or whatever.

I fear we may be waiting a long time for all of this.So lets just enjoy the 787! Who cares if its a month or two late (yup I know- the airlines) but its a tiny amount in the total scheme of things. This will be a 30 year programme -as Boeing products always are.
 
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 7:20 pm

Quoting Lorgem1 (Reply 3):
If I was a guessing man, I'd guess the real problem is in the mating software of each suppliers' sections.


Very good guess IMO. I was wondering the same thing. The Flight Software should not a huge deal as the 787, as far as I have seen, is not an inherently unstable design.

I'd say the sections are not learning to talk to each other as quickly as Boeing hoped. I remember an image posted a while back with the test engineers at the controls. They looked like they had been up for an entire day.

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abba
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 7:58 pm

Quoting BlackKnight (Reply 2):
6. Unlike what most on anet want to hear. The 787 is a simple revolutionary change in how airliners are manufactured.

That is true as far as Boeing is concered - Airbus has been building aircrafts by joining pre assembleled sections ever since the 320...

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 3):
The word "revolutionary" is hyperbole, but the 787 is a significant advance in commercial aviation. I put it on par with the 707 as a milestone in the evolution of jet transports. You seem to argue that it's all been done before, but it hasn't all been combined at once in a project of this significance...not even close.

You might talk of revolutionary in two ways that seems to be mixed here. It might be said that the 787 has some revolutionary technical solutions build into its design (at least as far as WB commercial airlines is concerned) and in that sense is revolutionary.

Its an etirely different matter to say that an aircraft revolutionse airtravel. Airtravel is primarily a socio-ecconomic phenomenon. And in that sense the 707, the 747 and (which is overlooked by many) the small single aisle aircrafts that allowed charter turism to devlop in the late 60'ties and early 70'ties revolutionnised airtravel and the world we live in. It is doubtfull that the 787 will do anything like that. The Concord didn't realy revolutionize much as it remained a pretty marginal player in civil aviation.

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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 8:29 pm

Quoting Abba (Reply 30):
The Concord didn't realy revolutionize much as it remained a pretty marginal player in civil aviation.

It can be argued that Concorde did revolutionise air travel, but only for those that could afford to fly it. Getting from London to New York in half the time is pretty revolutionary IMHO.
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 8:56 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 32):

It can be argued that Concorde did revolutionise air travel, but only for those that could afford to fly it. Getting from London to New York in half the time is pretty revolutionary IMHO.

This group of people is negligible. The Concorde was a cold-war era curiosity, similar in relative weight to the Republic of San Marino on the global political map.
 
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:05 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 21):
On present indications I'd put the chances of the underlying design proving itself valid at 95% or better. I see a bigger question-mark over whether Boeing can reach their planned 'one every three days' production rate on time (i.e. 2009 on) a shade lower; I see the chances as say 80% at the moment.

It is still very optimistic of you. Mind you Boeing will just pump billions of extra dosh to get the job done. So the development costs will shoot the roof, affecting, ever so slightly, ROI of the plastic fantastic. So perhaps you are on the right track.

I personally do not believe that Boeing will be caught in any muddle on the 787. They simply have a better management set up on the project. What would it say about civil airplane production in the 21st Century?

Quoting Keesje (Reply 26):
I hope a production ramp up after that will be realized (remember that´s where A380
problems started..).

Crunch time for the 787.
 
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:13 pm

Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
Boeing has lost partial configuration control of the non-flight-specified fasteners

What the heck does that mean?
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ncelhr
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:37 pm

Quoting BlackKnight (Reply 1):
The 787 is the first wide body full composite airliner. With no bi-pass air.

Of course, that's what they'd like you to believe. There's still a lot of non-composite keeping it together.

Quoting BlackKnight (Reply 1):
2. Full assembly of stuffed sub-sections from around the globe. The addressing of ramp rash on composites. The addressing all electrical systems and no bleed air. Composite knowledge will now be learned and used on all new jetliners to greater extents than the 787 (Except the A350 which suffers from the lack of knowledge to do so)

Uh? These statements are all unconnected. Full assembly of stuffed sub-sections around the globe had already been done since the 70s. All electric architecture - okay, that's brand new, and possibly one of the most exciting parts of the 787 program. Composite knowledge: Boeing was actually lagging other manufacturers in that one. Composite *barrel* construction, okay, that's a first. I don't know what fact brings the "Except the A350 which suffers from the lack of knowledge to do so" - please present them.

Quoting BlackKnight (Reply 1):
3. The amount of Composites on airliners will only go up because of the 787. The A350 was made to adjust to composite sections to be competitive.

Agree with second part of this sentence but not first part. Some airliners will retain non-composite architecture because of the characteristics/use they are designed for.

Quoting BlackKnight (Reply 1):
4. Fully electrical designs open the window ot a host of passenger related possibilities. Also composites will last years longer and provide a useful airliner with less costly maintenance.

Again, you mix two unrelated things in the same point.
Fully electrical architecture is better for the manufacturer & the airline company. I don't see how it affects the passenger.
Composites lasting longer is unproven. Static tests haven't even taken place yet.

Quoting BlackKnight (Reply 1):
5. Like stated before the A350 changed from metal to composite to match the 787. All new airliners will be composite.

Yes, and all new cars too. How much composite, say as % of weight?

Quoting BlackKnight (Reply 1):
6. Unlike what most on anet want to hear. The 787 is a simple revolutionary change in how airliners are manufactured. To simple for those whom pom pom do not have its manufactures name on them.

"simple revolutionary" = dark white = light black = Greenish Red = two words that do not work together.

You've been reading too much Boeing marketing info. I agree that the 787 opens new opportunities in aviation & definitely brings in the opportunity for a new generation of aircraft, which is a good thing, but somehow there is also a feeling that Boeing might have tried to chew too much at the same time. However, I hope the program will be a success, because it will mean cheaper flying - and that can only be good for all of us!
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:39 pm

Quoting Ebbuk (Reply 13):
And will they pull it off NAV? Your unbiased opinion given that the issues Boeing has admitted to on the 787 sound serious even though they've communicated it in a muted fashion. Or is it just me?

I see nothing that says Boeing can't. The 787's initial production is late, but so far nothing has come to light that says the plane is fundamentally flawed. Boeing's computer models have all been validated so far, so I can't agree with some member's insinuations that as LN0001 rotates off 34L at PAE for the first time her wings will snap off or the fuselage will break-apart.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 14):
It occurred to me that there is a distinction between 'May 2008 EIS' and the less stringent 'May 2008 delivery'.

We're using both terms interchangeably, even though they are not. The true term is, in fact, delivery to NH who then wll fly it to Japan and prepare for it to EIS when they're ready.

Quoting Keesje (Reply 26):
Back to the topic I thing the analyst's / press are turning a soft eye at Boeing at this moment.. e.g. many are saying a two month delay.. in general I think the uncritical / careful / respectful way they are simply repeating what Carson / Bair / Randy say, without questioning is less then impressive journalism.

I listened to the conference, and the folks asking questions did so to great extent on things like IAD787 has been reporting - fastener issues, status of LN0002-LN0006, Boeing's contingency plans to these issues, and yes, even the damage the temporary fasteners have caused to the structure.

Boeing answered them as best they could, and had actual program engineers present along with the "PR flacks" so the answers given were not "fluff" ones by people who have no first-hand experience with them.

So it may seem that something "must" be hidden by Boeing or deliberately being suppressed by the press, but I'm not seeing it here on the ground at PAE. Boeing is not being totally open with what could go wrong, but why should they? Why concentrate on and accentuate the negative? But they are being frank when asked frank questions. Yes, they're playing up the positive aspects over the negative in their answers, but they're not lying or obfuscating when asked direct questions on issues or progress.

Quoting Abba (Reply 30):


Quoting BlackKnight in Reply 2:
6. Unlike what most on anet want to hear. The 787 is a simple revolutionary change in how airliners are manufactured.

That is true as far as Boeing is concerned - Airbus has been building aircrafts by joining pre assembled sections ever since the 320...

Well Boeing has been doing it with the 737NG for a decade, as well, so it's not even new for them.  Smile
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:40 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 26):
I'm 100% sure Boeing & the FAA will do a good job on the testing & certification of the 787. Safety First remains the most important guideline in Aerospace. As a result time to market is less important.

Why even make a statement like this? [incredulous]

It should be, I would think, obvious that Boeing and the FAA (as well as Airbus and the EASA), even if they thought they could get away with it, would not deliberately and with full foresight certify a plane they knew was not ready just to save Boeing some embarrassment and hope they could fix those issues down the road and retroactively take care of it on the affected planes via service bulletins.

Airbus and EASA certainly didn't let the A388 be delivered with unsafe wiring. There is no way in Hades Boeing and the FAA would let the 787 be delivered with an unsafe system.

[Edited 2007-09-07 14:56:53]
 
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:42 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 37):


Quoting Stitch in Reply 0:
Boeing has lost partial configuration control of the non-flight-specified fasteners.

What the heck does that mean?

It's a fancy way of saying Boeing does not know with full certainty which fasteners installed on LN0001 are "flight-worthy" and can stay, and those that will need to be removed and replaced prior to LN0001 starting her certification and flight tests.
 
scrubbsywg
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:12 pm

Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 18):
Quoting ScrubbsYWG (Reply 10):

Did they also not mention that the static test frame would be completed before LN002, a change from previous plans.



Quoting ScrubbsYWG (Reply 12):
They aren't really doing any ground testing right now. They are busy putting the plane together to get it ready for ground tests and later onto flight tests. Boeing has its plan for testing, and i doubt that the actual testing procedure is changing other than being compressed further. I hope there is lots of updates with respect to the flight testing. It will be interesting to read about what is happening and when.

What then does the news heading "Boeing says 787 fuselage test a success" mean?.....

http://www.defense-aerospace.com/cgi...vX8AAAEAACIzzOUAAAAD&modele=jdc_34

[Edited 2007-09-07 07:18:19]

They dropped a 10 foot section of fuselage from a height of 15 metres. As far as i am concerned, 'ground testing' means taxi tests, braking tests, power on tests, etc. with a working plane. Material tests that do not involve a whole plane do not in my mind constitute ground testing, as they have been doing these kinds of tests for years now. That drop test could have been done months ago, all they needed was one barrel section, not a whole plane. As far as we know, they are using the time right now to finish up the plane LN001. The static frame isn't completed yet, so those tests haven't started either.
 
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:32 pm

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 19):
That it WAS a revolution in air travel is the point that was originally made by someone... and when he couldn't support the assertion he went off on this tangent of how revolutionary the aircraft is!

Someone posted "will revolutionize air travel", and my original intent was to respond to that post...but work got in the way (what a bother!). The 787 is an advance in technology and technique, but from the common passenger's point of view the experience will certainly not be revolutionary.

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 19):
However, apart from the high CFRP content, I don't agree that it does mark a change in the way we will build airliners from now on

Well, we'll just agree to disagree on this point. I don't see any more "all metal" airliners in our future. And yes to all you nitpickers out there, there hasn't been a completely "all metal" aircraft in a long time...you know what I mean.

Quoting Ncelhr (Reply 38):
Of course, that's what they'd like you to believe. There's still a lot of non-composite keeping it together.

This is exactly the sort of dismissive attitude that I'm objecting to. Of course the 787 is not entirely composed of any single type of material. No aircraft ever has been. You're nitpicking details and failing to appreciate the totality of the thing. airplane 
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swallow
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:37 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 39):
I can't agree with some member's insinuations that as LN0001 rotates off 34L at PAE for the first time her wings will snap off or the fuselage will break-apart.

And we look forward to seeing those wings flex in flight. It will be quite a sight!
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NAV20
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 10:39 pm

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 36):
It is still very optimistic of you. Mind you Boeing will just pump billions of extra dosh to get the job done. So the development costs will shoot the roof, affecting, ever so slightly, ROI of the plastic fantastic. So perhaps you are on the right track.

The optimism comes partly from having had a lot of fun in my working life by being involved in similar projects, EbbUK - buildings, not aeroplanes, but similar in the sense that they cost billions, broke new ground, took years to prepare, design, and complete, and were in some doubt (as to feasibility, timing, profitability etc.) until quite late in the programme.

I never encountered (or at least let myself get involved in) any project where I initially judged the probability of success at anything lower than 80%. There is rarely any profit without risk - but, in my judgment, anything less than an 80% chance is not business, it's gambling.

I expect that Boeing are in a similar position - as far as the 'underlying' situation is concerned they will still feel that they are 'on track' as far as eventual commercial success is concerned. Having to spend more will not be a problem, the recent sale-rate (and therefore expected profitability) will undoubtedly be far ahead of any forecasts they will have made even a year ago.

But some departments will be kicking themselves - or having the kicking done for them. The people who should have kept Honeywell up to speed on the flight systems, for example - and the people who should have checked fastener availability in more depth. One of the most telling quotes I saw from that press briefing was one reported by IAD787 on his blog - which revealed that, as far as titanium fasteners were concerned, they had found out, too late, that they were relying on an Alcoa machine that could only mass-produce one type of fastener at a time:-

"Q. What's going on at Alcoa? Removing temporaries causing damage?

A"Working with Alcoa on a daily, hourly basis to get the fasteners we need. The set up puts out one wad of bolts at a time. Substitute (flightworthy) fasteners being used, they however add weight to the aircraft."

"700-something fasteners left to install."


http://flightblogger.blogspot.com/

The 'damage' question was sorted out later - apparently they had the sense to use smaller temporary fasteners, requiring smaller holes, to avoid that problem. But the fact that they were relying on one limited-capacity machine at a single firm for ALL their titanium fasteners surely could and should have been foreseen as a possible problem by SOMEONE before they reached this point?

Quite confident that the guys at Boeing will fight through their troubles and find solutions to all the problems. One thing about the US of A - and Australia, really - is that you don't have much option. Not if you want to stay 'gainfully employed,' anyway.

[Edited 2007-09-07 15:48:28]
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planemaker
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 11:09 pm

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 44):
Well, we'll just agree to disagree on this point. I don't see any more "all metal" airliners in our future.

Not neccessarily... the CSeries will not have a composite fuse (if the program is ever launched!) Do not misunderstand me... I think that the 787 is a tremendous aircraft! But I am actually much more impressed with the avionics then with the CFRP... for example, they were able to incorporate dozens of LRUs into a single common core architecture and save over 2000 lbs!

Back to the topic... I noticed that no one has really commented on this statement in the Seattle Times article...

"It also must finish and integrate the flight-control software code supplied by the Phoenix-based aerospace unit of systems partner Honeywell."

If people recall, the biggest problem on the E-Jets has been the Honeywell supplied software. That delayed their certification so it will be interesting to see how this is really effecting Boeing.
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dakota123
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 11:17 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 47):
But some departments will be kicking themselves - or having the kicking done for them. The people who should have kept Honeywell up to speed on the flight systems, for example

Didn't I read somewhere that flight control software had been preliminarily checked out on a leased AA 777?

Dakota123
 
sphealey
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Fri Sep 07, 2007 11:52 pm

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 47):
=== The 'damage' question was sorted out later - apparently they had the sense to use smaller temporary fasteners, requiring smaller holes, to avoid that problem. But the fact that they were relying on one limited-capacity machine at a single firm for ALL their titanium fasteners surely could and should have been foreseen as a possible problem by SOMEONE before they reached this point? ===

The problem being that that is an inevitable outcome of combining "lean" with "supply chain management" (or its predecessor, "vendor optimization"). The entire world is moving toward very few, just-in-time, remote, risk-sharing vendors. There are downsides to that but it is seldom clear to me if a true cost/benefit analysis is ever done once the programs get rolling.

sPh
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Sat Sep 08, 2007 12:06 am

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 50):
Not neccessarily... the CSeries will not have a composite fuse (if the program is ever launched!)

Well...a cynic might argue that the C-Series pre-dates the 787. smile 
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
captainx
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Sat Sep 08, 2007 12:07 am

Look, if something as basic as fasteners, and as fundamental as documenting what types are where, has flipped the program on its back for 6 months, imagine how fantastic of a job they will do when they get to the hard stuff. I wouldn't be surprised if they have to come out and admit LN1 was accidently painted with Chinese lead paint.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Sat Sep 08, 2007 12:15 am

While it would not be immediate, total failure of the 787 program would indeed end Boeing Commercial Airplanes because they could not afford to produce the 737RS, 777RS and 747RS programs.

Such an outcome would put pressure on the existing 737, 747, 767 and 777 backlogs, as customers would no longer have a future replacement option for those planes from Boeing, but would instead have no choice but to pick Airbus.

Now, raw availability and the fact there is nothing wrong with the 737, 747, 767 and 777 would mean many of those orders would still be filled, but new orders would slow to a trickle and many of the orders made this year and last would likely be canceled and shifted to Airbus.

After watching the 787 kill Boeing, Airbus will not launch the A350, but then they won't have to. The A330 program would remain "untouchable" and the A340 could be improved to match the 777. And with the death of the 747-8I - by having no customers if nothing else - the A388 will have the upper-end of the market to herself.

Yes, once BCA shuttered their doors around 2015 and became a solely military/space contractor as Lockheed did, Russia and China will form a new conglomerate to build a full line of airliners and that company will eventually fill much of the void left by Boeing, but I expect we will see much less action in the marketplace. The A320/A330/A340/A380 will all see forty-year program lives, with mild upgrades at regular intervals.
 
TeamAmerica
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Sat Sep 08, 2007 12:34 am

Quoting CaptainX (Reply 59):
Look, if something as basic as fasteners, and as fundamental as documenting what types are where, has flipped the program on its back for 6 months, imagine how fantastic of a job they will do when they get to the hard stuff. I wouldn't be surprised if they have to come out and admit LN1 was accidently painted with Chinese lead paint.

So...you have nothing specific at all? Just your gut feeling? That's what I suspected, but given that some A.Netter's have declared you "100%" reliable as a source, I thought I'd give you an opportunity to show something one way or the other. And there it is...thanks!. smile 
Failure is not an option; it's an outcome.
 
Super98
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Sat Sep 08, 2007 12:39 am

Quoting Mach3 (Reply 22):

Speaking of Boeing longevity -- and I do agree that they are designed to last longer than Airbus products, but not as long as McDonnell Douglas products were -- what IS the Design Service Goal for the 787? Sorry if it has been addressed here before, but I haven't seen a discussion on hours and cycles. I hope it is not 75,000 like other Boeing aircraft and closer to the 100 ~ 140,000 for old Douglas aircraft.

I also must wonder what long term fatigue cycle tests are showing from the effects of "ramp rash" and what repair inspections are going to be required.... Or is the CFRP completlely unlike aluminum repairs so you do not have to keep track once the repair is cured?

NE1?

TIA,

RM
 
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Stitch
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RE: Boeing Provides 787 Program Update (Part III)

Sat Sep 08, 2007 12:45 am

Quoting CaptainX (Reply 59):
Look, if something as basic as fasteners, and as fundamental as documenting what types are where, has flipped the program on its back for 6 months, imagine how fantastic of a job they will do when they get to the hard stuff.

This is the same fallacy those who blindly disparage the A380 make: "If they can't get something as basic as the wiring right, how can they possibly get anything else right?"

And yet the first plane flew. It flew months late, but it flew. And then the second one flew. And the third. And the fourth. And the fifth. And so on... And so on...

And it actually performed to specification. The models Airbus developed for it were proven correct or refined where they were not. In some areas she fell behind (weight), but in others she leaped ahead (aerodynamics) and the two balanced each other out and the family received her type certification, the first two dozen planes are receiving their individual and group production certificates, and starting with the completion of MSN025, the rest of the family will receive their production certification.

And now the first plane is about to be delivered to the customer. Years late, true, but many felt about the A380 as you do about the 787 - the plane was fundamentally flawed, would never enter service, and would result in the death of Airbus as a commercial airliner manufacturer.

Those people were eventually proven wrong.

I feel confident you, too, will eventually be proven wrong.

I don't say that with malice, even though such words might be taken as such.

It's just that I was in the industry and follow it and listen to folks who are still in the industry and all that I hear told me that the A380 program was not going to collapse and kill Airbus.

And all that I hear tells me the 787 is not going to collapse and kill BCA.

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