Thorben
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Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:03 am

by the time the airport capacity allows it. Currently 55 will be the maximum that DXB can handle, but Clarke wants to "double" that number. (To 110, wow, I'm impressed.)

Source:

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nach...ichten-2007-09/artikel-8976814.asp
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ikramerica
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:09 am

Planes not ordered but spouted off about so far:

20 748s
100 787s
100 A350s
55 A380s

who in the history of aviation has had 100+ VLAs at one time (not to mention a fleet of midsize widebodies twice as large as that)?

nobody...
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Stitch
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:10 am

But one needs to remember EK plans to buy and bully their way into being the #1 airline in the world in size and traffic. So they're going to need maybe one thousand or more widebodies of all sizes to make that happen.
 
flydreamliner
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:15 am

Tim Clarke is a megalomaniac at the helm of an airline which is just as egotistical. His hub is not even that well located geographically. It's a very long flight from DXB to SYD, it's ULH to AKL, which isn't economical, so he doesn't have a great handle on the kangaroo route. It's located well south of the ideal route to Southeast Asia, which is already very well served by direct flights. Its way out of the way for Northeast Asia for anyone but Africa. I suppose EK has a good location for the low yielding europe to India to routes, but those are well served and easily served directly.

The real future of air travel in the 21st century is the pacific. A380s from the big North American and European cities to the big Asian cities, sure. 110 A380s going into DXB for any purpose, simply not likely.

I'll be damned surprise if he can make money flying 55 of those around plus his fleet.

My bet? Lots of A380s and 787/A350s on the market when EK finally faces the reality they do not need, and cannot support such a fleet.
"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
 
Thorben
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:27 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
who in the history of aviation has had 100+ VLAs at one time (not to mention a fleet of midsize widebodies twice as large as that)?

What does count as a VLA? 747 and bigger? Then, not many. 100 widebodies is already large.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
20 748s
100 787s
100 A350s
55 A380s

I think it was 10 747-8, and it will be either 100 A350s or 100 787s.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
But one needs to remember EK plans to buy and bully their way into being the #1 airline in the world in size and traffic. So they're going to need maybe one thousand or more widebodies of all sizes to make that happen.

Why 1,000 widebodies? I would measure size by pax-km flown, and by that EK is already very big.

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 3):
His hub is not even that well located geographically.

No? If you look at a world-map, you'll see Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. And what is in the middle of that? Dubai!

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 3):
t's a very long flight from DXB to SYD, it's ULH to AKL, which isn't economical, so he doesn't have a great handle on the kangaroo route.

It is even further from the UK to those places. The route LHR-DXB-SYD is about 3% longer than a direct flight, I would say that is not too much.

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 3):
The real future of air travel in the 21st century is the pacific. A380s from the big North American and European cities to the big Asian cities, sure. 110 A380s going into DXB for any purpose, simply not likely.

Europe to India can be done via DXB. Same with the Eastern US.

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 3):
My bet? Lots of A380s and 787/A350s on the market when EK finally faces the reality they do not need, and cannot support such a fleet.

This far they have managed to be profitable.
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
eraugrad02
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:27 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):

I hope that Boeing can get enough range to get an order from Emirates. God im crossing my fingers on this...lol. A380 may be new but the 747-8i is still recognized too.
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ikramerica
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:31 am

I don't know why he needs capacity for 110 A380s at DXB anyway. They won't all be parked there at one time. Just sounds like a typical bragging comment from the guy who loves to get his name in the press so some people quote him on a.net.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 4):
What does count as a VLA? 747 and bigger? Then, not many. 100 widebodies is already large.

exactly.

he's talking about 300 total widebodies including 100 VLAs in a fleet at one time. !!!!

Quoting Thorben (Reply 4):
I think it was 10 747-8, and it will be either 100 A350s or 100 787s.

it was more a list of the planes he's said he will or would buy, but hasn't.

it's 10+10 748s, and 50+50 (only now said this way, used to just say 100) A350s or 787s, but it's still a few years and no action.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:40 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 4):
Why 1,000 widebodies? I would measure size by pax-km flown, and by that EK is already very big.

Yes, but folks are asking how EK can make use of 300 widebodies. With something like 20%(?) year-on-year growth, and a strategy that seems based on moving the maximum number of people between two points, no matter how close or far away (hence no narrowbodies and the belief the A332 will not be replaced with a similarly-sized plane, but something much bigger), then as those pax-km numbers grow, so must the number of planes needed to carry those pax those kms.  Smile
 
Lokey123
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:50 am

A few months back i mentioned that i heard in Toulouse that Emirates had doubled their order to 80 something a/c, it turned out to be nothing but a rumour as they added just a few more a/c to the existing order. In looking back it seems as though their was a hint of truth to the rumour after all.
 
ncelhr
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:53 am

Darn, I just woke up from a dream where EK was the only airline left in the world. From JFK to LHR, I had to fly via DXB. Oh, what a nightmare!  crazy 
 
ikramerica
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 2:55 am

well, anything is possible, but they haven't taken delivery of 1 A380 yet, so let's not get too excited about frame number 110...  Wink
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
upperdeckfan
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:39 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
Planes not ordered but spouted off about so far:

20 748s
100 787s
100 A350s
55 A380s

who in the history of aviation has had 100+ VLAs at one time (not to mention a fleet of midsize widebodies twice as large as that)?

nobody...

ILFC

EK will become ILFC's biggest competitor..........my  twocents 
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Morvious
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:40 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 10):
well, anything is possible, but they haven't taken delivery of 1 A380 yet, so let's not get too excited about frame number 110...

Well, I was thinking the same over and over again with their orders so far, but every time again they seemed to do something stranger and bigger. Its not suprising me that much anymore.

Maybe it felt wrong in Dubai after the "news" China could use around 100+ A380's or maybe they want a better deal for the B748. Who knows.
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Stitch
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:46 am

Quoting UPPERDECKFAN (Reply 11):
EK will become ILFC's biggest competitor..........my  twocents 

I do think a leasing arm is in EK's future...
 
ikramerica
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:47 am

Quoting Morvious (Reply 12):
Maybe it felt wrong in Dubai after the "news" China could use around 100+ A380's or maybe they want a better deal for the B748. Who knows.

that's interesting. the arabian peninsula right now is one big pissing match, and you might be right that Clark was under pressure from "on high" to make clear that Dubai is just as important as China, and will be in the future.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
EI321
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 3:56 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
Planes not ordered but spouted off about so far:

20 748s
100 787s
100 A350s
55 A380s

And for some reason all these statements appear on the same day. What they should really order is a big batch of duct tape to wrap around Clarke's mouth.
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 4:18 am

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 3):
His hub is not even that well located geographically.

Often said on this forum, but totally disproved daily by EK's continuous growth. If people only took some time and checked EK's timetable (including these numerous secondary gateways) before posting here...

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 3):
It's a very long flight from DXB to SYD, it's ULH to AKL, which isn't economical, so he doesn't have a great handle on the kangaroo route.

Then all their massive growth on the routes to Australia is just a Fata Morgana?  Confused

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 3):
It's located well south of the ideal route to Southeast Asia, which is already very well served by direct flights.

From where? ATH? BHX? DME? GLA? HAM? MAN? MUC? NCL? VIE? Should I go on?

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 3):
I suppose EK has a good location for the low yielding europe to India to routes, but those are well served and easily served directly.

Which contradicts EK's growth in the Indian market...and btw - can you provide a source for your "low yield theory"?

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 1):
who in the history of aviation has had 100+ VLAs at one time (not to mention a fleet of midsize widebodies twice as large as that)?

Questions like these have always been asked in history. There's always a first time - that's no argument.


PH
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Wsp
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 4:35 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 16):
From where? ATH? BHX? DME? GLA? HAM? MAN? MUC? NCL? VIE? Should I go on?

I think that can't be emphasized enough when this geography topic keeps coming up. NO place in continental Europe not even AMS has a shorter connection to SYD via LHR than via DXB.

Link
 
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USAF336TFS
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 4:42 am

I'm just fascinated by the numbers were talking here. This from the same airline that has brand new 773s parked on the tarmac due to lack of pilots.

And that doesn't even include the fact that they're talking about ordering 50 787/A350s.

Hey, if they can profitably fill all those aircraft, good for them.
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ikramerica
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 4:47 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 16):
Questions like these have always been asked in history. There's always a first time - that's no argument.

Absolutely true. It's really a question of: do you or I think EK is going to be the carrier that is the first? They talk like they want to, they have growth right now, but it's a crapshoot. They haven't started filling 1 A380, let alone 110, and I have no doubt they can fill 30 or more, but 110 sounds like a schoolyard double dare battle right now.

EK will take infinity +1 A380s if China is taking infinity. So there. And my Dad can beat up your Dad.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
drexotica
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 4:58 am

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 3):
Tim Clarke is a megalomaniac at the helm of an airline which is just as egotistical.

Basically, a wanna be Juan Trippe.

Maybe someone ought to bump him a copy of Gandt's Skygods.
N707PA - Best looking commercial aircraft ever.
 
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lightsaber
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 4:58 am

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 3):
so he doesn't have a great handle on the kangaroo route.

Huh? EK has kicked of everyone but BA, VA, QF, and Singapore. As Thorben and others noted, they're in a good location for hubbing to Europe (assuming not everyone wants to go to LHR).  Smile

However, this much growth is... beyond ambitious.

But the real number is
748I 10
A350 or 787: 50 plus options Only one will win.
Now A380: 55 more.

Let's look at EK's historical strategy... they'll get rid of the 772A's, 773's, and possibly the 772ER's to other airlines. These are still good planes that any airline could make a profit off of. Its the old parable of selling a horse; you need to get rid of it while there are still years of work left in it. Otherwise you're stuck with the loss. And yes, old airframes fly a long time, but I believe today's high oil prices will force earlier retirements.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 4):

No? If you look at a world-map, you'll see Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. And what is in the middle of that? Dubai!

 checkmark 

Its going to be a matter of runway capacity and terminals. Hopefully EK can get more of a "rolling hub" going. However, at some point DXB will limit their growth. Well lookie here... JXB is under construction!  bigthumbsup 

Quoting UPPERDECKFAN (Reply 11):
EK will become ILFC's biggest competitor..........my twocents



Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
I do think a leasing arm is in EK's future...

Add me to the chorus. They just have too much buying power. Love it or hate it... its a new fact in the aircraft market.

Lightsaber
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ikramerica
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 5:01 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 21):
Add me to the chorus. They just have too much buying power. Love it or hate it... its a new fact in the aircraft market.

But that's not what Clarke is talking about here. He's talking about room at DXB. Is EK only going to lease A380s to airlines that fly to DXB?
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
Wsp
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 5:51 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
I do think a leasing arm is in EK's future...

Why would they disguise that as EK purchases?
Why would they start a leasing firm with such a risky investment instead of just a bunch of narrow bodies?

Everybody seems to be leasing aircraft nowadays, why would Dubai make a secret out of it?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 6:09 am

Quoting Wsp (Reply 23):
Why would they disguise that as EK purchases?

Sorry. I don't believe EK will buying shedloads of 787s and/or A350s and/or 748Is and/or A388s to lease them. I believe that, with all the A330s, A340s, and 777s EK has now that will be replaced, they would likely start with them as they take delivery of their new product over the next decade. Then, once they've established themselves in the leasing market, then they could start moving some of their oldest "new kit" as they add new. That way, they can have a new fleet and get extra mileage (excuse the pun) out of their older planes that still have plenty of life in them.
 
cityairline
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 6:10 am

Quoting Ncelhr (Reply 9):
Darn, I just woke up from a dream where EK was the only airline left in the world. From JFK to LHR, I had to fly via DXB. Oh, what a nightmare!

Hahahahahaha  biggrin 
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gbfra
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 6:27 am

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 3):
Tim Clarke is a megalomaniac at the helm of an airline which is just as egotistical



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 6):
Just sounds like a typical bragging comment from the guy who loves to get his name in the press so some people quote him on a.net.



Quoting DrExotica (Reply 20):
Basically, a wanna be Juan Trippe.

Maybe someone ought to bump him a copy of Gandt's Skygods

A long time ago there was a famous American TV show where you could hear as a motto:

"To boldly go where no man has gone before."

I was very impressed by this motto and thought "Hey that's the American way of thinking. Great."

Here we have an airline which boldly goes where no other airline has gone before.

And you can hear mainly Americans critisizing them for what they are doing.

What's the problem? That Emirates is an airline from a small country far away? That they dare to buy enormous amounts of A380s? Would you be equally critical if they had ordered 55 B748s?

Just let them do their thing. They will succeed or they will fail. It's much too early to judge. But to critisize them for their boldness, well, this I find really astonishing.
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Buyantukhaa
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 7:09 am

Quoting Wsp (Reply 17):
NO place in continental Europe not even AMS has a shorter connection to SYD via LHR than via DXB.

Not sure about connections, but LHR-SYD great circle takes you via HKG... Not that this will affect EK the slightest, I'm just nitpicking.
I scratch my head, therefore I am.
 
ZBBYLW
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 7:19 am

I dont know if anyone else has mentioned this, I am running late read half way down, but has anyone considered that because they will get such a large discount due to the very large order, perhaps they want to lease them out to some carriers who have yet to buy some.
Keep the shinny side up!
 
hnl-jack
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 7:39 am

Quoting ZBBYLW (Reply 28):
User currently offlineZBBYLW From Canada, joined Nov 2006, 947 posts, RR: 2
Reply 28, posted Sat Sep 8 2007 12:19:02 your local time (13 minutes 32 secs ago) and read 172 times:

I dont know if anyone else has mentioned this, I am running late read half way down, but has anyone considered that because they will get such a large discount due to the very large order, perhaps they want to lease them out to some carriers who have yet to buy some.

The worlds airlines don't seem to be running to the A-380's. The market appears to be headed towards mid size wide-bodies such as the 787/A-350 capable of very long range connecting cities with a moderate traffic size. If they were to order a hundred A-380 aircraft, my guess is that many will sit. Besides, how many airports are really willing to make the investment required to accomadate an A-380 for perhaps a flight a day?
 
ikramerica
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:31 am

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 26):
"To boldly go where no man has gone before."

True dat.

But you left out a key part.

It was a 5 year mission.

But the series didn't last five years. It was canceled after three. It was a show before it's time. Later, much later, it grew into a cultural phenomenon that even later bread a "Next Generation," decades later, when the world was ready. Which is eerily similar to the business model of the A380 as laid out in 2000.

 Wink

There's another great quote from a man more eloquent than myself, and it starts like this:

"The best laid plans of mice and men..."

You know the rest.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
kaitak744
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:31 am

So, their future fleet will look like

50 787/A350
10 777-200LR
+60 777-300ER
10 747-8
110 A380

Does anyone know the final number of 777-300ERs EK is planning to have as of now?
Also, when will EK get rid of their 777-200As and 777-300As?

And... when does one think the A340-500s will go?
 
Wolborsk
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:37 am

How is Airbus going to pull this one off? They got their work cut out for them. Where's Emirates going to fly 110 A380s anyway?
 
ikramerica
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:38 am

Quoting Kaitak744 (Reply 32):
So, their future fleet will look like

by that time, you'd expect them to have exercised the other 50 787/A350 options and already retired/leased out some of the 77Ws and likely all the 77Ls. Because we are talking maybe 2020 before EK has 110 A380s, if ever. And I don't think the less than optimal 77L survives with first tier carriers past 2020, not when the 787ER or A350R are available in bulk.
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insiderinfo
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:46 am

Quoting FlyDreamliner (Reply 3):
His hub is not even that well located geographically

gotta disagree there...DXB..i probabley the most centrally located HUB on the globe..just take a look at a map..can't get more central than DXB...for Europe to asia....europe to far esat...europe to south pacific....anywhere in teh US to asia via atlantic route...

yes also agreed...this airline is doomed in years to some with over capacity and aircraft they can't use or fill....they are heading down a dangerous path..

i mean where teh hell would you fly 110 A380's...even 55 for that matter...

take a look any pictures in the database of cabin shots from Emirates...won't see many in flight shots with full cabin's. !....especially not in business or first...
 
SkyyMaster
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 8:48 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 4):
No? If you look at a world-map, you'll see Europe, Africa, Asia, and Australia. And what is in the middle of that? Dubai!

Airlines are seriously talking to A & B about ultra-long range versions of the 787 and 350. The purpose of which to do nonstops such as Europe-Australia, or just about any two city pairs conceivable. When such planes are in place, and in time they will be, why would anyone want to make a stop/connection in DXB when they can overfly it nonstop to their destination? I agree with others here. The only conceivable reason EK needs 110 Whalebuses is to contain Mr. Clark's ego.
 
tristarcrazy
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:04 am

So, Pan Am ordered what was then (the 60's) a mind blowing amount of 747's, which, among other things, led to its down fall.....does anyone think EK could be following the same path with their massive amout of A380's on the way?
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Rj111
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:08 am

Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 36):

Airlines are seriously talking to A & B about ultra-long range versions of the 787 and 350. The purpose of which to do nonstops such as Europe-Australia, or just about any two city pairs conceivable. When such planes are in place, and in time they will be, why would anyone want to make a stop/connection in DXB when they can overfly it nonstop to their destination? I agree with others here. The only conceivable reason EK needs 110 Whalebuses is to contain Mr. Clark's ego.

There are a handful of services from EU-OZ that could support a non-stop service, even with a 787. So making a connection in DXB when you want to fly, AMS-SYD or GLA-PER or CNS-FCO or even something fairly othordox like CDG-MEL is a logical choice.

I do doubt the EK will up their order to 110 in the near term but i would certainly worry about Ikramerica's mental state if they were too. I do agree that Clake seems to be dropping to really embarassing levels to get the best deal, however. These playing hard to get tactics often turn into the boy who cried "I am interested in buying XX Boeing/Airbus XX" (wolf).

Edit: Ohh, happy birthday me Big grin

[Edited 2007-09-08 02:09:00]
 
BoomBoom
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:24 am

Quoting Gbfra (Reply 26):
Just let them do their thing. They will succeed or they will fail. It's much too early to judge. But to critisize them for their boldness, well, this I find really astonishing

There's a saying about bush pilots.

"There are old pilots; and there are bold pilots. But there are no old bold pilots."
Our eyes are open, our eyes are open--wide, wide, wide...
 
andessmf
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 9:50 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 7):
With something like 20%(?) year-on-year growth

That will not go on forever. There are some circles that are already calling Dubai another bubble in the making. And the higher they go, the further they fall.

Using the US housing bubble and dot.com as example, where many believed that that type of growth could be sustained for a long time.
 
worldtraveler
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 10:15 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
But one needs to remember EK plans to buy and bully their way into being the #1 airline in the world in size and traffic. So they're going to need maybe one thousand or more widebodies of all sizes to make that happen.



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 14):
Clark was under pressure from "on high" to make clear that Dubai is just as important as China, and will be in the future.

The sentiment here seems to be fairly unanimous but EK can't survive on the capacity it is throwing in the market. Further, you can be assured that other countries will take action if EK is pulling enough traffic off of Euro flag carrier routes to the point of threatening those carriers. Even if EK was given a blank check to dump capacity into the market such that they could knock a few major carriers out of the market, there is no assurance that every passenger would value a connection through DXB or that other countries would stand by and the UAE trash its markets.

EK is preparing for a fall and it will be hard. They haven't deployed most of the widebody capacity they have had on order tbis decade and yet they keep ordering. The market will only sustain so much.
 
PM
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 10:38 am

It still amazes me (though it no longer should) the indignation and outrage some A.Net posters obviously feel at the success of Emirates and Qatar.

It's impossible to avoid suspecting that it is rooted at least partly in the kind of prejudices and preconceptions that reflect pretty poorly on those who hold them.

I think it goes something like this.

Thirty years ago these clowns were riding around on camels and living in tents. How dare they now aspire to own and operate airlines that fly huge fleets of the most modern airliners all over the place and offer award-winning levels of service?! There is a natural order of things. Airlines like Emirates and Qatar challenge and risk overturning that natural order.

So they console themselves with accusations that EK, QR, EY and whoever are doing it by 'cheating' and regularly predict (though, I suspect, more in hope than expectation) that these upstarts will fall back to earth imminently.

The trouble is that none of these airlines shows the slightest sign of falling back to earth. Indeed, their rise seems inexorable.

So that generates still more fury and we get yet more posts implying that the managers of the airlines based in and around the Gulf and living in cloud-cuckoo land.

Well, for what it's worth, my take on this is that the world is changing, centres of gravity are shifting, global capital flows wherever it cares to and market leaders wax and wane.

Get used to it.
 
qantas787
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 10:45 am

Anyone who seriously believes that EK will be flying circa 250 wide body aircraft ANY time in the future, should start packing for a visit from the white coated men and their rubber roomed motel.
G'day
 
worldtraveler
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 10:55 am

Quoting PM (Reply 42):
It still amazes me (though it no longer should) the indignation and outrage some A.Net posters obviously feel at the success of Emirates and Qatar.

there is no indignation or jealousy. It is that people here do know the size of markets, do know how many aircraft EK has on order, and do know that you can only stimulate markets so much. While alot of people don't fully understand every fact of the airline business, they are not out of line when they say EK will falter bigtime in the near future. The Middle East may have alot of money but it still is money of the smaller regions of the world in terms of population - there is only so much siphoning of passengers they can do from other regions of the world.
 
PM
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 11:06 am

Quoting Insiderinfo (Reply 35):
i mean where teh hell would you fly 110 A380's...even 55 for that matter...



Quoting Wolborsk (Reply 33):
Where's Emirates going to fly 110 A380s anyway?



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 19):
110 sounds like a schoolyard double dare battle

Pan Am's initial order in 1966 for 25 747-100s was considered by many to be reckless and probably hubristic. Well, Pan Am are long gone - but not because they over-estimated their need for VLAs.

Their successor as The World's Favourite Airline now flies 57 substantially larger 747-400s (plus, I might add, not far off that many 777s). Who's asking incredulously how BA think they can fill those planes?

Now EK are suggesting that maybe by 2020 they'll have 100+ A380s.

Pan Am planned 25 741s in service by the early 1970s.
Twenty-five years later BA did have 50+ 744s in service.
EK talk of flying 100+ A380s twenty-five years after that.

What's so remarkable about that? It's called growth, isn't it?
 
aussie747
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 11:06 am

One of the biggest points of the article was " The first of the 55 aircraft it has ordered in deals worth billions of dollars is due to be delivered in the first quarter of next year."

I thought there was to be no further deliveries until about JUL 2008 after the SQ initial ones and that was to EK. Has the delivery scheduled been changed?
 
ikramerica
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 11:07 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 41):
Further, you can be assured that other countries will take action if EK is pulling enough traffic off of Euro flag carrier routes to the point of threatening those carriers.

This is the part people don't get. No nation of any size will allow EK to destroy their flag carriers. For EK to succeed with 250-300 large jets, they will need to basically dominate markets to the point that other carriers fail.

The protectionist nature of national legislatures (including in the USA) will get the better of them, and while it's fun to pretend EK is just a free market supported airline right now, when push comes to shove and it means the loss of thousands of jobs in other countries, those who negotiate open skies treaties will no longer take the "isn't EK and their world domination dream so cute" attitude anymore.

If EK becomes too dominant, watch Dubai open skies agreements evaporate. And when they do, who loses the most? Hell, even EY would benefit if nations determined EK was too predatory and restricted access and growth.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
PM
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 11:16 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 44):
there is no indignation or jealousy

We'll have to agree to differ on that. I believe there are bucketloads of both.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 44):
there is only so much siphoning of passengers they can do from other regions of the world

In the obvious sense that demand is finite, I agree. But in terms of what percentage of that demand they can take from older airlines, I'd say they may barely have started.
 
worldtraveler
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 11:24 am

read reply 47... again.

and a reminder one more time that the UK basically ruled the world at one time and BA is still the largest airline for a country that is both larger in terms of population and far more wealthy than any Middle East country.
 
PM
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RE: Emirates Wants To Double A380 Order

Sat Sep 08, 2007 11:34 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 49):
the UK basically ruled the world at one time

The relevance of which is...?

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 49):
BA is still the largest airline for a country that is both larger in terms of population and far more wealthy than any Middle East country

And, I believe I'm right in saying, more than half its passengers are not British.

It strikes me that EK can point to BA as something of a model to follow. (And since many of the EK bigwigs came from BA that seems not unlikely.)

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 49):
read reply 47... again

Read reply 45... (Possibly for the first time.)

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