MAH4546
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AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 10:52 am

From good sources, AA is very close to making a return to Asuncion, Paraguay, and it is right now looking very likely for May-June 2008. However, unlike a non-stop flight that AA would prefer, lack of aircraft means the flight will operate via Sao Paulo or Rio de Janeiro, with a 767-300ER on a daily basis. AA was hoping to return with a daily 757 non-stop, but with European expansion and the continuing hopes that Brazil will open up the Northeast markets (at this point, I'm shocked AA is still putting up with them), there probably won't be aircraft to run a dedicated service.
a.
 
commavia
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:03 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter):
AA is very close to making a return to Asuncion, Paraguay, and it is right now looking very likely for May-June 2008.

That's great. ASU is a market that should be on the AA map, given AA's presence in just about every other major city in South/Latin America, and ASU needs AA back.

Is this shift due to the rescinding of that government-regulated, mandatory travel agent commission, or what?

Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter):
at this point, I'm shocked AA is still putting up with them

I can't either but, I suppose, AA is smart enough to recognize that if they can get into the market now, as quickly as possible, the potential pay-off long-term will be huge: as, in a market like this that is going to grow so much, there will be a major benefit to being the first major player in the game.

Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter):
there probably won't be aircraft to run a dedicated service.

Honestly, in the short-run, I think that's fine: ASU will probably move to a dedicated nonstop 757 service within a few years, but in the interim, seeing as AA will once again - just as before - be about the only show in town, a 767 routed via Brazil (my guess is GRU, not GIG) will be just fine, as at least it will allow them to pick up some local Brazil-Paraguay passengers on the way and help the flight out at the beginning, plus help build up some cargo contracts again via the 767's larger belly capacity.

Let's hope it happens!
 
worldtraveler
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:26 am

AA certainly wants to return to ASU but there is no need to pull aircraft that are necessary to predict competitive routes. If Brazil outside of GIG and GRU open up (not sure the NE but all of Brazil), AA has to be ready to move in; DL will be ready one way or the other. Actually, AA is in good position if it pulled some 757s off of domestic service - even if they used domestic configured aircraft in the short term. Nonetheless, AA is on the verge of being marginalized at JFK and is having to fight back while S. America is under attack as well - by NK from FLL to northern Latin America and DL to southern S America.

You haven't said why AA is now returning but I suspect that Paraguay realizes the damage to their economy is far greater without AA service than whatever it costs in agency comissions.
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:43 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 2):
. If Brazil outside of GIG and GRU open up (not sure the NE but all of Brazil), AA has to be ready to move in; DL will be ready one way or the other.

It is extremely, extremely unlikely that Brazil will open up as a free-for-all, but rather on a case-by-case basis. AA knows this, which is why they have pending applications to add fourteen weekly flights to new markets in Brazil. Delta, meanwhile, has zero pending applications. I don't think they are as interested in other markets as some others do. If they were, why haven't they applied? They haven't even been able to work out a stable schedule for their additional ATL-GRU flights in the past three years.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 2):
You haven't said why AA is now returning but I suspect that Paraguay realizes the damage to their economy is far greater without AA service than whatever it costs in agency comissions.

Pretty much. They worked with Aerolineas Argentinas to bring them back, and now they are shifting their focus to please American Airlines.

[Edited 2007-09-15 04:45:17]
a.
 
commavia
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:49 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 3):
Delta, meanwhile, has zero pending applications. I don't think they are as interested in other markets as some others do. If they were, why haven't they applied? They haven't even been able to work out a stable schedule for their additional ATL-GRU flights in the past three years.

Why would Delta have pending applications if they don't have a viable market in the northeast to serve? I know there has been talk about Delta doing Atlanta-Salvador but honestly, even that, to me, seems like a stretch, at least now. Delta has proven time and again that it is very good at plugging major business and tourism capitals into the ATL hub pipeline and making them work, but it has also proven time and again that it has a hard time profitably filling flights from its ATL superhub to smaller cities in Latin America. AA, via Miami, would have absolutely no problem filling 50 more flights per week to Brazil's northeast, but I just don't see the market being able to support Delta just yet - maybe in a few years, after AA's and TAM's Miami flights build the market up, but as for now, I don't think so. Could be wrong, though - should be interesting to see how the U.S.-Northeast Brazil market develops over the next few years (no thanks to INAC, of course).
 
worldtraveler
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:56 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 3):
It is extremely, extremely unlikely that Brazil will open up as a free-for-all, but rather on a case-by-case basis. AA knows this, which is why they have pending applications to add fourteen weekly flights to new markets in Brazil. Delta, meanwhile, has zero pending applications.

There is no authority to request so neither DL or AA have any pending route applications. If you think DL is not beating the bush looking for new opportunities just like AA is doing, you are sorely mistaken. The US government simply will not allow AA or any other airline to craft its own routes at the exclusion of other carriers; that is an overriding concern of the US gov't in int'l air service negotiations.

When Brazil opens, it will not be via a private deal for AA.
 
jacobin777
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 12:05 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 2):
AA is on the verge of being marginalized at JFK

..you always state on your posts that "AA will become "marginalized" at JFK"...please do explain.........
"Up the Irons!"
 
worldtraveler
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 12:15 pm

I don't know I ALWAYS say that but AA has two major int'l routes left that it doesn't face competition from DL on - NRT and EZE. (by next spring). Further, DL has finally become a viable and profitable competitor on the transcon markets and offers a much broader portfolio throughout the US. B6 and DL both offer better coach products than AA and serve more markets. AA is not dead but they do not have the advantage they once had and they are being forced to expand to keep from being completely run over. Problem is that DL is expanding faster both domestically and internationally while B6 is still in very good shape at JFK. Why do you think AA execs are proposing caps at JFK while the same time adding flights. They sound just like Ms. Clinton.
 
commavia
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 12:19 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 2):
AA is on the verge of being marginalized at JFK and is having to fight back while S. America is under attack as well

Ah, WT, please do keep posting - your commentary provides such excellent comic relief for oh-so-many.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 5):
When Brazil opens, it will not be via a private deal for AA.

It won't need to be a private deal because, again, AA isn't really going to have much competition. The market from the U.S. to Northeast Brazil is not big enough or strong enough right now to support two U.S. carriers - and of the two names that have been thrown around, AA is without question the stronger of the two in this market. There is absolutely no way that Delta via ATL would be able to compete with AA via MIA because of the complete lack of O&D. If Delta thinks they can make SSA work, good for them, but I don't see it happening in the short-run. Only time will tell.
 
worldtraveler
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 12:26 pm

Quoting Commavia (Reply 8):


It won't need to be a private deal because, again, AA isn't really going to have much competition.

Yeah, you've said that before but the reality is that DL is now the 2nd largest airline to deep S. America and they are on the verge of taking the same title for the entire region. Not bad for an airline that started flying to S. America a little over 10 years ago. And they've managed to do it almost exclusively from ATL - a hub that everyone seems to think has no Latin American potential. Just wait til they start building out JFK and LAX to Latin America.

Your continued "only AA can make it work" attitude has been shown to be wrong time and time again. And it will be again. Guaranteed.
 
MAH4546
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 12:27 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 5):
There is no authority to request so neither DL or AA have any pending route applications

Really? So why does AA have a pending application for an exception to the US-Brazil air treaty to fly to Recife and Salvador? There is an authority to request, it is called an exemption. Just like those exemptions that let DL and AA fly extra flights to GRU and GIG during the holidays.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 5):
When Brazil opens, it will not be via a private deal for AA.

No one said it would. However, it will be on a case-by-case basis, and so far only AA has requested approval from INAC to operate flights to markets outside of GRU and GIG.
a.
 
worldtraveler
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 12:30 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 10):
No one said it would. However, it will be on a case-by-case basis, and so far only AA has requested approval from INAC to operate flights to markets outside of GRU and GIG.

You obviously have forgotten about the requests that DL has made to ANAC - which they have acknowledged.

None of it is permissible under the current treaty, and I repeat, won't be granted until Brazil offers enough service for the US to fairly offer something to more than one carrier. The days of the "chosen instrument" died with Pan Am.
 
dc10s2hnl
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 12:58 pm

Is AA looking at anymore South American destinations besides northeast Brazil and ASU? Perhaps a 757 nonstop to MAO or reinstating a tag-on to CNF again?
 
MAH4546
Topic Author
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 1:06 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):

You obviously have forgotten about the requests that DL has made to ANAC - which they have acknowledged.

No, I haven't, because I'm not aware of them and have yet to see proof of them. I have, however, read plenty of articles, in Portuguese, talking about Delta's potential interests in the region and how Delta is exploring it. I have no doubts it is is something Delta is looking into, I just don't think they will be making it priority.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 11):
None of it is permissible under the current treaty, and I repeat, won't be granted until Brazil offers enough service for the US to fairly offer something to more than one carrier.

DL and AA's extra GRU/GIG flights aren't "permissible" under the current US-Brazil air treaty either, and they exist. I never said that Brazil would be unfair to multiple carriers. They won't. They will be very fair. What I've said is I don't think any airline other than AA is in a rush to serve these markets. That's what I believe. I may very well be wrong.

The US DOT also takes no sides in the issue. If Brazil where to grant, for example, only seven exemptions to serve Northeast, and all seven went to AA, then AA would get them and others would be locked out. The US DOT wouldn't care. I don't think that would happen. I think Brazil will fairly grant the same amount of frequency exemptions to any airline that requests them, I just don't see anybody asking for them except for AA.

[Edited 2007-09-15 06:13:22]
a.
 
aal0616
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 1:26 pm

Not to disappoint the DAL contingent, however, Northeast Brazil routes, if or when approved by Brazil, will be flown to and from MIA before any other USA market for several logical and irrefutable reasons, which have been discussed so far in this thread. That said, the USA carrier will be AAL. The ops plans, aircraft and crew scheduling are tenatively in place for the winter and spring schedules. The plan has been in place for some time.

While not qualified to objectively comment on the statements concerning the immnent demise of AAL in the face of a worldwide DAL onslaught, the Northeast Brazil market, if available, is not an opportunity in which I would advise DAL to tangle with AAL. Among other things, o/d MIA traffic swamps ATL. And, pardon the ignorance, it remains to be proven that ATL can supplant MIA as the premier hub of the Americas, for numerous reasons. Elsewhere, the reports here of AAL's impending obituary are at least somewhat premature.

Regarding ASU, it looks like a tag short term even though no one really wants to do it that way. The Paraguay authorities have perhaps finally realized the error of giving AAL a very valid reason to withdraw from ASU, if unwillingly. The preferred return appearance is the night/day 752(w) turn.
 
HPAEAA
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 1:49 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 7):
AA is not dead but they do not have the advantage they once had and they are being forced to expand to keep from being completely run over. Problem is that DL is expanding faster both domestically and internationally while B6 is still in very good shape at JFK. Why do you think AA execs are proposing caps at JFK while the same time adding flights.

Ummm... isn't the FAA also hinting at the same concept? isn't it possible they just know what needs to be done?

as a New Yorker, something has to be done... I personally blame DL and B6 for the problems at JFK due to the recent (past few years) increase in flights... not that I blame the, clearly there is a market.. however since the two carriers have rapidly expanded, things have only gotten worse... weather it's a US, AA, CO, DL, B6 compromise or a FAA Mandate, I don't care at this point... the delays are ridiculous whatever carrier you fly... and btw, on a clear day, even though it's scheduled for, the 50 minute taxi time to take off is a delay... even ORD can operate more efficiently that that...

Quoting AAL0616 (Reply 14):
And, pardon the ignorance, it remains to be proven that ATL can supplant MIA as the premier hub of the Americas, for numerous reasons. Elsewhere, the reports here of AAL's impending obituary are at least somewhat premature.

:D
Why do I fly???
 
DesertAir
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 9:37 pm

I am happy to hear this. Asunción is one of the cities in South America I would like to see. I have been searching for routes and from LAX I would need to fly to fly on LAN and change planes in Santaigo which makes the trip very long.
 
CV990
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 9:51 pm

Hi!

Excelent news...excelent news indeed!!! I have plans to return to Paraguay in July 2009 and I was accepting the fact that I would have to fly anywhere in Brazil and then pick a TAM flight to ASU. Now with AA returning ( let's pray and hope for that...) there I must get the chance this time to fly with AA to ASU...are they keeping the previous route that was starting in MIA or they will fly from any other airport? Hummmm I feel that I'll have a great time flying with AA!!! Let's hope so!
Regards
CV990, the Maserati of the skies!
 
elmothehobo
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sat Sep 15, 2007 11:04 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 2):
Actually, AA is in good position if it pulled some 757s off of domestic service

AA only has domestically configured 757s in its system, and the aircraft have been used on routes of similar lengths.

Either way its about time the Paraguayan authorities get their act together and get service back to the US.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 9):
Yeah, you've said that before but the reality is that DL is now the 2nd largest airline to deep S. America and they are on the verge of taking the same title for the entire region. Not bad for an airline that started flying to S. America a little over 10 years ago.

2nd doesn't mean as much when 1st is an 800 pound gorilla. There is no doubt in my mind that Delta has worked hard for its position as the number 2 carrier, but I doubt any US carrier will come to be anywhere near the size of American in Latin America, with the grand exception of Continental to Central America.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 9):
Your continued "only AA can make it work" attitude has been shown to be wrong time and time again. And it will be again. Guaranteed.

American makes it work when they want to. They have a terrible habit of dumping routes too quickly, which I think we can both agree is a bit short sighted.
 
worldtraveler
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sun Sep 16, 2007 12:01 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 13):
DL and AA's extra GRU/GIG flights aren't "permissible" under the current US-Brazil air treaty either, and they exist. I never said that Brazil would be unfair to multiple carriers.



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 13):
The US DOT also takes no sides in the issue. If Brazil where to grant, for example, only seven exemptions to serve Northeast, and all seven went to AA, then AA would get them and others would be locked out.

Bet you somehow can't find DL's request for those extrabilateral flights, too. Just because you aren't able to find ANAC's documents doesn't mean they don't exist.

The DOT wants what they can get for all US carriers and they will allocate routes based on a route case if they are a limited number available. However, the US will not agree to any extrabilateral agreement that doesn't provide opportunities for all carriers to participate in network growth in the area.

You are also dilusional if you think Brazil or any other country wants AA and no one else. AA IS the 800 pound elephant and it is not good for anyone to have an 800 pound elephant free to run around unchecked. Brazilian authorities want Brazilian carriers to get a fair shot at any route growth and they also want as many US carriers participating as possible.

AND a major reason why Brazil is not moving forward w/ thesse proposals is because many of these new routes are best suited for 757s and smaller; Brazilian carriers simply don't have the right aircraft to fly the routes. Because Brazil isn't going to open a bunch of routes where its carriers will lose to the US carriers, nothing happens and Brazilians continue to pay high prices for service that doesn't take them where they really want to go.

Quoting AAL0616 (Reply 14):
Not to disappoint the DAL contingent, however, Northeast Brazil routes, if or when approved by Brazil, will be flown to and from MIA before any other USA market for several logical and irrefutable reasons, which have been discussed so far in this thread.

These are just more of your dreams to protect AA from the realities of a highly competitive market. AA acted for years if they would be the dominant and only carrier in th US transcons and that has now changed; other carriers now are solidly in the market and offering a better product for less. AA hid behind limited access to LHR in order to protect its profits and that too is falling. They ran UA out of the NYC-London route but CO and DL will provide formidable competition which is why AA has written down the value of its LHR slots, a clear evidence that AA will not get the revenue premium it once enjoyed despite record prices being paid for the slots themselves. And AA thought they would be king of the hill in DFW until the citizens said they were tired of being choked to death by AA's fares - so WN is now able to price markets from DAL throughout the country and will be gradually gaining the right to fly those routes.

You can only live off of a monopoly position for so long.

Quoting AAL0616 (Reply 14):
And, pardon the ignorance, it remains to be proven that ATL can supplant MIA as the premier hub of the Americas, for numerous reasons.

No one said ATL would supplant MIA... but ATL is the 2nd largest gateway to Latin America and DL is doing that from a hub which many here repeatedly say has no O&D.

Quoting HPAEAA (Reply 15):
Ummm... isn't the FAA also hinting at the same concept? isn't it possible they just know what needs to be done?

All kinds of people have hinted at all kinds of solutions but I can assure you that when B6 and DL tell legislators in smaller cities up and town the eastern seaboard that they will cut service to NYC, the howls of protest will send the FAA back to the drawing board.

The answer is to grow the ATC system in order for it to handle the demand that exists.

CO has already announced that it will draw down some of its EWR operation in order to build up CLE; DL doesn't use JFK as a costly primary domestic connecting hub because they have CVG and ATL to do that. The free market is the best place to decide how service should be allocated and what the cost should be for customers who choose to use epensive airports - and delays of necessity create costs.

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 18):
2nd doesn't mean as much when 1st is an 800 pound gorilla.

which, if you want to believe this statement, further supports my notion that AA has been marginalized in NYC and to Europe. CO and DL both are larger across the Atlantic than AA as well as in terms of total destinations offered from NYC. So, if you want to argue that 2nd place doesn't count, AA surely doesn't matter to Europe or in NYC.

The more intelligent approach is to say that being in 1st place is an advantage but it isn't a place where one can rest on its laurels nor does it mean that other carriers can't continue to chip away at your dominance. DL and CO surely take AA seriously in NYC and Latin America but they also recognize the opportunities available to them. At the same time, AA mgmt (despite what some a.netters think), takes CO and DL seriously and knows they very much can extract some major hide from AA's backside.
 
elmothehobo
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sun Sep 16, 2007 2:11 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 19):
which is why AA has written down the value of its LHR slots,

That was something they had planned on doing, they have mentioned it in their annual reports for the past few years.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 19):
a clear evidence that AA will not get the revenue premium it once enjoyed despite record prices being paid for the slots themselves

Continental and Delta will give American a run for their money, that said, American still is and will remain bigger in the NYC-London market because of the number of frequencies they offer. Remember American will have 8 daily flights to London from New York when Open Skies goes into effect. Delta and Continental combined won't have that much frequency to London.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 19):
The free market is the best place to decide how service should be allocated and what the cost should be for customers who choose to use epensive airports - and delays of necessity create costs.

 checkmark 

I couldn't a gree more. I was disappointed when Mr. Arpey came out and suggested slot restricting JFK. IMO let passengers decide with their wallets.
 
asuflyer
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sun Sep 16, 2007 2:24 am

I really am happy that AA is coming back here becuase Tam Mercosur is just a disgrace
 
MAH4546
Topic Author
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sun Sep 16, 2007 5:00 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 19):
The DOT wants what they can get for all US carriers and they will allocate routes based on a route case if they are a limited number available. However, the US will not agree to any extrabilateral agreement that doesn't provide opportunities for all carriers to participate in network growth in the area.

First of all, stop putting words into my mouth like you always do. I never, never, never said that Brazil wants AA and nobody else. What I have said is that a) I don't think any other airline except AA is going to go for flights to Northeast Brazil (at least initially) and b) the US DOT would not care if, in a hypothetical situation, only one US airline was granted extra flights (they really don't care at all).

If Brazil was to say, "we are going to open up only 7 extra frequencies for flights to the Northeast), and they all went to AA, then tough for DL. They all went to AA, and DOT wouldn't care. If they all went to DL, then tough for AA. DOT wouldn't care. I think you are forgetting that US DOT does this all the time (i.e. Brazil, China, Argentina, Colombia).

[Edited 2007-09-15 22:31:31]
a.
 
worldtraveler
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sun Sep 16, 2007 5:41 am

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 20):
Continental and Delta will give American a run for their money, that said, American still is and will remain bigger in the NYC-London market because of the number of frequencies they offer. Remember American will have 8 daily flights to London from New York when Open Skies goes into effect. Delta and Continental combined won't have that much frequency to London.

True... but the a.net mindset that the biggest fish in the pond is the only one that matters is just plain wrong. DL and CO will be a force in LHR just as AA is in Germany and Italy even though DL is much larger there.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 22):
What I have said is that a) I don't think any other airline except AA is going to go for flights to Northeast Brazil (at least initially) and b) the US DOT would not care if, in a hypothetical situation, only one US airline was granted extra flights (they really don't care at all).

and I've said that a) DL is very much interested in many routes outside of GRU and GIG, including to the NE. You will be shown to be wrong and b) the US Dept. of State will not sign a treaty that adds so little incremental capacity in the light of the huge demand for increased service. It does nothing for the US to add such a pitifully small amount of additional capacity.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 22):
DOT wouldn't care.

The DOT does care... and your cases are not good examples because they do not represent a case where the US agreed to only an incremental 7 weekly flights in one treaty revision.
 
MAH4546
Topic Author
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sun Sep 16, 2007 5:58 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 23):
a) DL is very much interested in many routes outside of GRU and GIG, including to the NE. You will be shown to be wrong

I might be shown to be wrong, who knows. You might be shown wrong instead.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 23):
b) the US Dept. of State will not sign a treaty that adds so little incremental capacity in the light of the huge demand for increased service.

It has nothing to do with singing a treaty. Again, it has to do with granting exemptions beyond the current air treaty, in which DOT will have no protest. I don't think you can get this through your head, and I'm really not going to talk about it any further. DOT doesn't have to approve the exemptions. They didn't have to approve DL and AA's exemptions to operate extra GRU/GIG flights during the summer and winter holidays. They won't have to approve any hypothetical exemption DL or AA would get to fly to Northeast Brazil.
a.
 
worldtraveler
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sun Sep 16, 2007 6:08 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 24):
I might be shown to be wrong, who knows. You might be shown wrong instead.

You are wrong. I can assure you.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 24):
It has nothing to do with singing a treaty

The US doesn't SING treaties. They SIGN them.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 24):
Again, it has to do with granting exemptions beyond the current air treaty,



Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 24):
DOT doesn't have to approve the exemptions.

All air service agreements and any revisions to them are negotiated by the US State Dept. I'm not sure why it's so hard for you to grasp the concept that the US doesn't and won't SIGN exemptions/treaties/amendments that only provide a minimal incremental benefit while leaving the market essentially unchanged. There is no example you can provide of US gov't actions that provide what you say will happen. The US is interested in completely open markets.

Your continued insistence that AA will retain its dominant position and no one else will get any more market access is alot like a child that keeps telling everyone that no one else wants its toys and they won't share them.

AA has tried for years to sit on frequencies and dominate markets - witness the most recent example with Colombia. The US is not going to support such actions and will not provide AA from the inevitable competition they need and will get.
 
LipeGIG
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sun Sep 16, 2007 2:43 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 13):
DL and AA's extra GRU/GIG flights aren't "permissible" under the current US-Brazil air treaty either, and they exist. I never said that Brazil would be unfair to multiple carriers. They won't. They will be very fair. What I've said is I don't think any airline other than AA is in a rush to serve these markets. That's what I believe. I may very well be wrong.

AA and DL thru US Embassy in Brasilia informed ANAC and Brazilian Government about their intention to fly to Brazilian Northeast in the same way Brazilian Government allows TAP (i.e. ex-bilateral).

The additional frequencies during the Brazilian summer are granted by ANAC considering the higher demand. AA and DL are the sole airlines on US-Brazil that require such extra-flights as UA keep additional frequencies and CO never demand such flights. So, ANAC use to be very fair as per your words as both AA and DL received frequencies based on their day-by-day operations (i.e. about 20% of their operations)

Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
MAH4546
Topic Author
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sun Sep 16, 2007 7:24 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 25):

Your continued insistence that AA will retain its dominant position and no one else will get any more market access is alot like a child that keeps telling everyone that no one else wants its toys and they won't share them

I never insist anything such. The funny thing is that you talk like that about Delta, but fail to realize it. It's fine though. That's the way you want to have it, then fine. I'm done with you and your absolutely moronic commentary. It has gotten to the point where the only way you can attempt to prove your pathetic points is by correcting a simple spelling error.

In other news, and back to the topic (before it became the inevitable "Delta will dominate the world'" thread that WorldTraveler turns everything into):

Paraguay media has reported that American Airlines will return as early as January 2008, possibly with a combination of non-stop and one-stop flights to Miami, similar to how the Miami-Montevideo route operates.

http://www.ppn.com.py/html/noticias/noticia-ver.asp?id=32529

Meanwhile, Delta is busy trying to figure out how to make money on half the new Latin/Caribbean routes they have launched in the past two years, as Antigua, Belize City, Bridgetown, Fort de France, Kingston, Managua, Port of Spain, Pointe Pitre, Providenciales, St. Croix, San Pedro Sula, Santiago (DR), and Santo Domingo continue to be money losing stations for Delta. About the only successful launch they've had to the region in the past two years as been Ecuador.

[Edited 2007-09-16 12:30:41]
a.
 
commavia
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sun Sep 16, 2007 8:30 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 27):
Paraguay media has reported that American Airlines will return as early as January 2008, possibly with a combination of non-stop and one-stop flights to Miami, similar to how the Miami-Montevideo route operates.

Very, very interesting.

This could, perhaps, be a very good use for the 757 block and crews that would have been committed to SSA/REC if those two flights fall through (which is quite possible, if not likely, at this late stage).

Rather than sending the 757s into Brazil, they could just reposition that plane and sent it to ASU instead.

Very, very interesting.
 
CV990
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Sun Sep 16, 2007 8:43 pm

Hi!

Very interesting the article on the paraguayan homepage PPM, it looks that the negotiations are very, very advanced. It's quite understandable to re-start the AA flights again from MIA, now the stop in one of the brasilian big airports it's also smart....TP is currently negotiating with argentinian authorities to return to EZE and they are also planning to stop in GIG or GRU, this will bring another extra flight for TP and where the main flux of traffic will be of course Brazil but then some passengers will keep going till EZE. So in my point of view, AA is doing a good returning to Latin America!
Regards
CV990, the Maserati of the skies!
 
YHZ
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Mon Sep 17, 2007 12:46 am

Well I would hope that DINAC woud improve the security at the airport...it was only a month ago armed gunmen were able to go right to the international departure gate area and take a guy's briefcase with over 1 million USD and walk out without the police doing anything. Why you would hand carry that much money is another thing, but not exactly world class security. I know the police eventually were able to identify those responsible, but four guys with AK's walking in with no problem into a secure area doesn't exactly make you feel very secure.

Also, it seems like anyone can simply pass through the diplomatic line at customs and not even give any paperwork. There was no indication why certain people could just pass through with not even a look by the customs officials. I know some are government officials, but others looked like regualar people.
 
incitatus
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Mon Sep 17, 2007 1:55 am

Quoting AAL0616 (Reply 14):
While not qualified to objectively comment on the statements concerning the immnent demise of AAL in the face of a worldwide DAL onslaught,

 rotfl 

Considering recent announcements, DL is bound to become the largest Saturday carrier to Latin America...
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worldtraveler
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:03 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 27):
It has gotten to the point where the only way you can attempt to prove your pathetic points is by correcting a simple spelling error.

you actually didn't misspell, you misused. Your spell check works fine. It's the logic check that's a bit faulty.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 27):
In other news, and back to the topic (before it became the inevitable "Delta will dominate the world'" thread that WorldTraveler turns everything into):

You know, as much as you want to say that, I have NEVER used "dominate" in any postings.

I have said DL is and will grow and it will be an acquirer when the industry consolidates. I've also said that AA will likely be an acquirer - but that is predicated on AA cleaning up its balance sheet and getting its labor issues under control.

I have absolutely no issue with AA returning to Paraguay; AA has made its little point and the economy needs them back.

AA will add service to Paraguay; DL will add it to lots of other places, including the NE of Brazil as well as on other continents that AA employees only dream about.
 
tommy767
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:48 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 19):
AA hid behind limited access to LHR in order to protect its profits and that too is falling. They ran UA out of the NYC-London route but CO and DL will provide formidable competition which is why AA has written down the value of its LHR slots, a clear evidence that AA will not get the revenue premium it once enjoyed despite record prices being paid for the slots themselves.

As said, AA is a gorilla in the LHR market. Even when the slots open up, DL and CO wont nearly make up the amount of frequencies or seats that AA currently has. CO has only committed on plans from IAH-LHR when open skies come into effect. They haven't said anything about CLE or EWR being switch over to the Heathrow market. I think your jumping the gun a bit with this prediction.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 19):
AA acted for years if they would be the dominant and only carrier in th US transcons and that has now changed; other carriers now are solidly in the market and offering a better product for less.

Thats completely debatable. The amenities that CO, B6, DL offer aren't THAT much better. There are up's and down's to each product for transcons:

DL: AVOD 757s, although there is always a good chance that you could ride on a non-configured one making the ride no better than anybody else.
B6: PTV's, etc. probably the best bang for your buck.
AA: Widebody 762s, the only widebodys on this route but there is always a good chance that the projector will break. LCDs will soon be installed.
CO: Free meals and cramped 73Gs.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 19):
So, if you want to argue that 2nd place doesn't count, AA surely doesn't matter to Europe or in NYC.

Why don't you talk to one of the many AAdvantage FF's in the NYC area? AA flies the most New Yorkers, not CO, not DL. Even if AA doesn't fly to the most european destinations, oneworld offers a hell of a lot of codeshares for an FF to connect on between New York and Europe.
"KEEP CLIMBING" -- DELTA
 
worldtraveler
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:32 am

Quoting Tommy767 (Reply 33):
Why don't you talk to one of the many AAdvantage FF's in the NYC area? AA flies the most New Yorkers, not CO, not DL. Even if AA doesn't fly to the most european destinations, oneworld offers a hell of a lot of codeshares for an FF to connect on between New York and Europe.



Quoting Tommy767 (Reply 33):
As said, AA is a gorilla in the LHR market.

read the whole thead, including what I have said, in context. I have never said there will be no problem with AA continuing its leading position in LHR even after other carriers start service there. but those new carriers will provide AA with some much needed competition.

I've also never said AA is not immaterial in the transcon market or to Europe, even though there is far more competition in the transcons and AA is now #3 in the total transatlantic market. And the little bit of expansion they are doing next year won't even come close to changing their position against DL and CO which are growing much faster than AA.

Codeshares will do nothing to compete against CO and DL that offer nonstops to dozens more cities than AA. How much traffic does AA carry to IST or SVO against DL's nonstops or to ATH against 3 other carriers?

What I have said is that DL will continue to grow - they won't take over the world as some people think - but they will continue to develop a global route network. And as they grow, it will make AA's route network look less and less relevant, even though AA might have a leading position in a couple of markets. Other carriers will have a strong presence in entire regions and will still serve the cities AA is dominant in.

And I have certainly never said like some people here that some cities will only work for one carrier and the rest will never have a chance - if they are even thinking about it. To think that one city or region is only big enough for one carrier is childish and has been shown time and time again to be out of touch with reality.
 
MAH4546
Topic Author
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:41 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 34):

What I have said is that DL will continue to grow - they won't take over the world as some people think - but they will continue to develop a global route network. And as they grow, it will make AA's route network look less and less relevant, even though AA might have a leading position in a couple of markets.

You are going to be quite surprised when you see what new routes AA has in store for their pretty new JFK terminal, beyond the recent Milan and Barcelona announcements. Some of them might happen in May if they do some clever aircraft scheduling (i.e. remove 763s from LAX-HNL; cut BOS-CDG; reduce DFW-HNL service; rotate more 763s into Heathrow) and if ORD-EZE turns to be seasonal (verdict is still out).
a.
 
SJOtoLIR
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:45 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Thread starter):
AA would prefer, lack of aircraft means the flight will operate via Sao Paulo or Rio de Janeiro, with a 767-300ER on a daily basis

I am questioning if ASU could support more than a daily service in such route?
It has to be taken into consideration the service given by Tam Mercosur PZ on ASU-GRU and immediately connecting with JJ: GRU-MIA. AA-JJ also codeshares the GRU-MIA.
AR will return to ASU in October and they are even capable to participate in the complicate backtrack ASU-EZE-MIA.
"Goin' up to the spirit in the sky"
 
incitatus
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:30 am

Delta's only justification to go after Atlanta-NE Brazil flights is to take up bilateral and ex-bilateral space to prevent American from adding more flights. There is absolutely no chance that ATL-REC/SSA/FOR can make any money.
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aajfksjubklyn
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:15 am

Terminal 8 (the old one is gone btw)...all flights out of New T8...it was kind of sad to see the rat trap with no activity today when I dropped the partner off for work.

Back to issue, it seems as though AA is watching DL, and they are going to say...we told you so...about the rapid expansion DL is living right now. I just dont get it...I never will. AA is my airline of choice and I am slightly biased towards other airlines, but I have always respected how AA approaches their next step. Its as though they do a very very very comprehensive go/no go type analysis prior. DL seems to not really think this trhough..Ie: situation at JFK..add flight after flight, when the terminal is falling apart, and they are creating gridlock in the 5:00pm-10:00pm hours...

My two cents and then some.
 
MAH4546
Topic Author
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Mon Sep 17, 2007 9:15 am

Quoting Incitatus (Reply 37):
There is absolutely no chance that ATL-REC/SSA/FOR can make any money.

Delta will learn that very quickly if they attempt to enter the market, but I suspect Delta realizes this, which is why, as I've said, I don't foresee Delta entering the market.
a.
 
aal0616
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Mon Sep 17, 2007 12:24 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 34):
To think that one city or region is only big enough for one carrier is childish and has been shown time and time again to be out of touch with reality.

That was not the point, which is that in the case of SSA and REC, you can make money or justify a route from MIA, not ATL. That being the case, the USA carrier best positioned to plan and operate that specific route is the hub carrier at MIA, which is AAL.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 35):
You are going to be quite surprised when you see what new routes AA has in store for their pretty new JFK terminal,

Yes.

Although I get emotional every trip through JFK looking at the old PAA Worldport, it is now a fact that the new AAL terminal puts the company ahead of DAL for now in terms of the quality of their respective JFK facilities. The new AAL terminal will definitely be further utilized beyond the addition of MXP and BCN. The 763 fleet is being redeployed and repositioned. As has been described before in this thread, the focus is to not necessarily have the most flights and destinations from the JFK station, but to operate well researched, planned and best yielding operations available within the available route authorities. There has never been a self-imposed pressure to fly beyond a more limited, targeted Atlantic service pattern than is possible or available within the AAL and former TWA authorities.

Having emerged from bankruptcy, DAL seems to have rediscovered their old PAA base and authorities, and are willing to take the COA approach of as many stations as can be flown using 752s for the closer, thinner trips. DAL certainly has the ability to flood these and also Eastern European or beyond 763-772 stations with more flights than AAL.

So DAL and COA might carry heavier overall Atlantic traffic, AAL more to Latin America, UAL and NWA more to Asia. However, AAL has created a reliable, if more focused network, also sacrificing aircraft utilization to build a very loyal customer base from JFK and other key markets. You see the 772 fleet very targeted to LHR and NRT. The flights from JFK to LHR and NRT do very well. JFK will further grow, although you will not see dozens of trips on thin, speculative runs.

The oneworld options available to AAL customers even without full BAW code and benefit sharing, which will become a reality with LHR opening up, Sir Richard notwithstanding, are considerable. For example, why would AAL fly their own metal from LAX to SYD when QFA is such an attractive partner for oneworld FFs?

Who will control or compete effectively at JFK is a long way from MIA or ATL to SSA-REC or MIA-ASU, but this has been an interesting thread. I had not realized that AAL was so vulnerable to DAL. I'd thought the reverse was true in many markets, and DAL has not always come out on top, such as withdrawing from DFW. On the other hand, ATL is a far more considerable Atlantic hub for DAL in terms of flights and volume than ORD for AAL (outside of LHR) and DFW or MIA for AAL. Everyone has their advantages and disadvantages. ATL will never approach MIA's o/d flying south.

Supremacy may be a matter of definition, perspective and taste.

[Edited 2007-09-17 05:48:10]
 
commavia
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Mon Sep 17, 2007 11:16 pm

Quoting Tommy767 (Reply 33):
AA flies the most New Yorkers, not CO, not DL.

That's an interesting point that I've heard before.

I've heard from many people in NY who have status with multiple airlines (usually AA and CO) that they tend to see far fewer connections on AA flights - particularly to big markets like LAX, SFO, MIA, LHR, NRT, etc.

Many have long regarded AA's NY presence as much more O&D-centric and much less based on the connections that seem to more heavily support CO's and DL's more hub-based operations.

Would be an interesting thing to get some stats on...
 
aal0616
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:01 am

Quoting Commavia (Reply 41):
Many have long regarded AA's NY presence as much more O&D-centric and much less based on the connections that seem to more heavily support CO's and DL's more hub-based operations.

There is much truth in this.

Off the top of my head, I do not have statistics available; however, thinking about how passenger loads tend to appear in and out of JFK, and what connecting service is available, it would be very accurate to describe JFK for AAL aa an o/d station. The serious commitment to the 3-class LAX and SFO would be your first clue. AAL has attracted and held transcon NYC-originating business traffic for several generations, as well as attracting a strong LAX customer base. At JFK, this means that Platinum level customers who travel to LAX but also LHR or NRT will be prone select AAL. No, JFK has always been set up this way for AAL. In the Caribbean leisure markets, the same is true, purely or mostly o/d. You can see LAX, SFO and MIA passengers connecting at JFK for Europe and some coming on the Eagle commuter flights. Over time, PHX, SAN, SNA, SJC, SEA, et. al. have been, are being or will again be flown in an attempt to build connections, but even they have tended to be heavy o/d.

This is not to say that there are not a serious number of connections being made on AAL at JFK but it is not like the Europe flights out of ORD, for example. I would guess that DAL at JFK and COA and EWR may be more prone to connecting rather than o/d traffic, but I also suspect that DAL has a greater percentage of connections being made at ATL whereas JFk would be more o/d simply because it is a larger market; COA, not so since EWR is their primary Atlantic hub.
 
LipeGIG
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:33 am

Quoting AAL0616 (Reply 40):
That was not the point, which is that in the case of SSA and REC, you can make money or justify a route from MIA, not ATL.

And what's the difference, can you explain ? You believe there is business ties between SSA/REC and MIA that couldn't apply for ATL ? Let me explain to you that the market for Northeast is not only leisure and it's not connected to MIA but diversified among several major US cities, as well as US visitors to Brazil that depends mostly on a hub.
In the past with AA/JJ partnership, AA would be a winner, but not after the end of their partnership (JJ domestic customers would fly AA as they can obtain FF miles).

Nowadays DL can run profitable flights out of REC/SSA/FOR ! The first to serve the market will be happy, the same way TP is now!

Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
MAH4546
Topic Author
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:45 am

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 43):

And what's the difference, can you explain ? You believe there is business ties between SSA/REC and MIA that couldn't apply for ATL ?

The difference lies more in the fact that, for now at least, there is only room for one U.S. airline in the market, and the airline that will win that battle is American Airlines.
a.
 
commavia
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Tue Sep 18, 2007 12:52 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 44):
and the airline that will win that battle is American Airlines.

For a multitude of reasons. Not just that they are the strongest airline in the Latin American market, and the strongest airline in the Latin American market from probably the two biggest sources of demand for flights to Brazil's Northeast (namely Miami and New York), but also because their presence in just about every place in South America, including Brazil, is so light-years ahead of just about everyone else in its scope, breadth and penetration.

Long-term, Northeast Brazil may be able to support more than one U.S. carrier, and if there were to be another U.S. airline in the market - the most logical airline would no doubt be Delta, again for a multitude of reasons: chief among them its huge hub in Atlanta and its growing presence in Latin American.

However, that being said, as MAH succinctly put it, at the moment at least, the market just isn't there to support more than one U.S. carrier profitably and, for the reasons mentioned above, that airline will no doubt ultimately be AA.
 
LipeGIG
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:49 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 44):
The difference lies more in the fact that, for now at least, there is only room for one U.S. airline in the market, and the airline that will win that battle is American Airlines.

American will not receive both markets never. They will receive one and Delta will receive another one.

Quoting Commavia (Reply 45):
For a multitude of reasons. Not just that they are the strongest airline in the Latin American market

Commavia, can't compare the presence on Latin America with the focus of a Northeast-US route. If they want to fly to LIM, SCL, CCS, PTY or EZE among others will be not with AA. Northeast customers are not AA customers!

Quoting Commavia (Reply 45):
and the strongest airline in the Latin American market from probably the two biggest sources of demand for flights to Brazil's Northeast

For leisure you're right. But for business, not. Ford, the largest investor in Bahia for example looks for DTW. Petrobras oil refinery can be connected to IAH, Northeast Bank could be connected to multi-national banks like IADB and World Bank in IAD.

I keep my opinion, DL can venture on Brazilian Northeast, need just to be the first one.

Felipe
New York + Rio de Janeiro = One of the best combinations !
 
MAH4546
Topic Author
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Tue Sep 18, 2007 1:59 am

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 46):
Northeast customers are not AA customers!

You do realize that American Airlines is the second largest airline in New York City, with quite a larger presence than Delta? They are the largest airline at LaGuardia, the second largest airline at JFK (bigger than Delta), and the second largest airline at Newark. Northeast customers are very much AA customers, especially in New York City.

Quoting LipeGIG (Reply 46):

American will not receive both markets never. They will receive one and Delta will receive another one.

AA will receive the two markets they want - Recife and Salvador. Delta might receive other, less desirable markets (i.e. Fortaleza), or they might receive the same markets, or none at all. I think it is safe to say that AA will work to get first dibs on the markets they want, thanks to how corrupt Brazil's government works. Or, hopefully, we will see complete Open Skies in Northeast Brazil in which there will be a free-for-all for AA and DL to go where they want. I don't think Delta would like this, though.

[Edited 2007-09-17 19:02:26]
a.
 
MAH4546
Topic Author
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Tue Sep 18, 2007 4:06 am

Back to the original topic, I was told today that the route will operate via Buenos Aires this time around.
a.
 
Pu752
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RE: AA Closer To Returning To Asuncion

Tue Sep 18, 2007 5:28 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 48):
Back to the original topic, I was told today that the route will operate via Buenos Aires this time around.

A triangle route MIA-EZE-ASU-MIA or MIA-EZE-ASU-EZE-MIA ? will it be year round ?..................... if not triangle I find this quite odd and why make it via EZE and not GRU ?

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