777ER
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China Needs $340 Billion New Planes - Boeing

Wed Sep 19, 2007 8:58 am

China will require 3,400 new airplanes worth about $340 billion over the next 20 years, according to Boeing's updated annual forecast for the commercial airplane market. The complete forecast, known as the Boeing Current Market Outlook, is available on the Boeing Web site.

Over the forecast period, China will have the fastest-growing market, making it the largest market outside of the U.S. for new commercial airplanes.

China will continue leading all domestic air travel markets with a long-term passenger-kilometer growth rate of 8.8 percent. Following the anticipated surge in passenger traffic for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, the China domestic market will grow nearly five-fold by 2026 to become slightly larger than today's intra-North American market.


http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2007/q3/070918a_nr.html
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Shenzhen
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RE: China Needs $340 Billion New Planes - Boeing

Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:54 am

Quoting 777ER (Thread starter):
Over the forecast period, China will have the fastest-growing market, making it the largest market outside of the U.S. for new commercial airplanes.

US Carriers better get on with the ordering, as they aren't the largest anything as of late...

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StarGoldLHR
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RE: China Needs $340 Billion New Planes - Boeing

Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:09 am

I guess that will keep the Airbus A320 production line busy once it ramps up in China.

How about the new Chinese RJ they are building....

Once China learn how to build planes mass-production style... Airbus and Boeing will need to watchout... those Chines RJs will cost a 10th of the Western European price !!
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ikramerica
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RE: China Needs $340 Billion New Planes - Boeing

Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:56 am

Boeing still believes that only 90 total VLA will be needed by China in 20 years.

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 1):
US Carriers better get on with the ordering, as they aren't the largest anything as of late...

Fastest growing doesn't mean largest. US Carriers are still some of the largest airlines in the world, with 5 of the top 10 IIRC.

Chinese carriers will EVENTUALLY grow to similar large sizes, but not so soon that they will take up all the delivery slots for planes...
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TeamAmerica
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RE: China Needs $340 Billion New Planes - Boeing

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:16 am

Quoting 777ER (Thread starter):
Following the anticipated surge in passenger traffic for the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, the China domestic market will grow nearly five-fold by 2026 to become slightly larger than today's intra-North American market.
Thanks for this bit of perspective. I am very tired of reading posts suggesting that the Chinese will need dozens of A380's for domestic service. China is big in population and their economy is growing admirably, but the perception is out of step with reality. Twenty years from now they'll be as big a market as North America is in 2007...there might be some niche application for VLA's, but not in any significant number.

[edit - missed a few words...]

[Edited 2007-09-19 04:21:16]
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ikramerica
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RE: China Needs $340 Billion New Planes - Boeing

Wed Sep 19, 2007 4:11 pm

Quoting TeamAmerica (Reply 4):
Twenty years from now they'll be as big a market as North America is in 2007...there might be some niche application for VLA's, but not in any significant number.

Well, they will be connecting larger cities and fewer cities, if I understand it correctly.

But still considering there are zero routine 747 domestic flights in the USA, the idea that China would need 100 domestically when their traffic won't even pass CURRENT USA domestic traffic is just out of step with reality.

The VLA's China will need will be for mostly cargo and international service.
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