MSYtristar
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Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:43 am

Just curious as to what you guys think will be the next U.S carrier start service to MSY?

XE made a pretty big splash last May when they inagurated 12 new nonstops from New Orleans....and those new flights, from what I am told, have been doing well for them. I have heard that MSY is one of XE's most profitable stations.

So, who's next?

Midwest?
Frontier?
Skybus?
Alaska?
Virgin America?
Spirit?

I could see five out of the six mentioned above flying here and doing very well. The only one i'm not so sure about is YX since they'd probably do MSY-MCI and well, XE has that market served well enough with two flights a day. I think the market is too thin to see a 2nd carrier at this time.

But F9 to DEN is a no brainer...SX to CMH could probably stimulate enough demand due to the low prices to be successful...AS to SEA is a route which would have probably already happened were it not for Katrina (indeed, I heard from a few people that AS wanted to fly to MSY)....VA to SFO is one which makes a lot of sense now since UA has seemingly abandoned service from the Bay area to New Orleans....and Spirit could throw in a couple of flights to FLL (possibly even a flight to SAP depending on what TA does) now that WN has a smaller presence in the market and be successful.

Overall, there are still several strong markets from MSY which are underserved and/or not served, and I hope to see an upcoming new service announcement from at least ONE of the airlines mentioned above. The airport is really offering excellent incentives now to lure new service, and I'm sure sooner or later another one will come to town, but you know, as is always the case, the suspense is killing me.  Wink
 
RL757PVD
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:50 am

Midwest
Virgin America
Spirit
Frontier
Alaska
Skybus

In that order....
Experience is what you get when what you thought would work out didn't!
 
S12PPL
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:12 am

Even though I'd love to see Alaska enter the MSY market... I very highly doubt it'll happen any time soon. Maybe out of SEA in 5-10 years.
Next Flights: 12/31 AS804 PDX-MCO 2/3 AS19 MCO-SEA QX2545 SEA-PDX
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:16 am

Quoting S12PPL (Reply 2):
I very highly doubt it'll happen any time soon. Maybe out of SEA in 5-10 years.

I know....I thought the airport was pretty close to getting them before the storm, too.

In fact I don't think I've ever even seen an AS plane here but I think Tom said they brought in an MD-83 one time.
 
S12PPL
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:20 am

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 3):
I know....I thought the airport was pretty close to getting them before the storm, too.

My best guess is that AS will be focussing on the Hawaii market for a while now. It seems like they're very very interested in it. It'd be nice if they expanded to more east coast cities out of PDX, though. But it doesn't sound like they have enough metal coming to do that, AND expand Hawaii.
Next Flights: 12/31 AS804 PDX-MCO 2/3 AS19 MCO-SEA QX2545 SEA-PDX
 
MAH4546
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Wed Sep 19, 2007 11:24 am

I would not be surprised to see Spirit with flights to Fort Lauderdale and Honduras, especially if TACA does not come back to New Orleans. I think that Spirit coming to New Orleans will depend largely on TACA. I could see them doing a late night FLL-MSY departure, a redeye MSY-SAP-MSY service, and a morning MSY-FLL flight.

As for Midwest, it is definitely true that the market for two carriers between New Orleans and Kansas City might not support two carriers, but it is also a very realistic possibility that Expressjet will not be doing their own branded ops 12-18 months from now, so I wouldn't rule out Midwest either.
a.
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Wed Sep 19, 2007 7:00 pm

Quoting S12PPL (Reply 4):
It'd be nice if they expanded to more east coast cities out of PDX, though. But it doesn't sound like they have enough metal coming to do that, AND expand Hawaii.

I think they released a 10 year "growth plan" or something similar a few years back, and cities like MSY, PIT, ATL were on it. Hopefully they'll get some new metal over the next few years. It seems like they have more potential with more east coast flying than Hawaii, but that's just my opinion.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 5):
but it is also a very realistic possibility that Expressjet will not be doing their own branded ops 12-18 months from now, so I wouldn't rule out Midwest either.

That's something I didn't consider. Perhaps YX will see it as an oppurtunity to return for the 3rd time. Maybe the 3rd time will be a charm?
 
PavlovsDog
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Wed Sep 19, 2007 9:41 pm

How about Allegiant? They could serve a lot of cities in the leisure market to which there is no current service. While MSY isn't Vegas or Orlando it does has quite a bit of a draw as a leisure destination.
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:23 pm

Quoting PavlovsDog (Reply 7):
How about Allegiant? They could serve a lot of cities in the leisure market to which there is no current service

I think the problem with Allegiant is that they serve too many smaller sized markets which do not really have any significant demand to New Orleans. And with WN running soon to be 2 daily nonstops between MSY and LAS, and 4 from MSY to MCO (along with DL in that market), I think Allegiant would have a tough time finding a niche.

That being said, the tourism industry in N.O is really coming back strong, so who knows...
 
as739x
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Wed Sep 19, 2007 10:46 pm

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 3):

Alaska did multiple MSY-SAT flights around the time of Katrina. We sent a 734 there and it did 2-3 round trips/day for a few days.

Now with Alaska returning a/c as a passenger flight from Seattle, I don't think for a few years. AS a/c are at a premium right now and there are a few more higher yield markets I could see our planes first. But if SEA-MSY happens, I could see it started as a red-eye for a/c utilization.

ASSFO
"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
 
Tom in NO
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 12:52 am

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 3):
I think Tom said they brought in an MD-83 one time.

It was a Seattle Seahawks charter many years ago.

Quoting AS739X (Reply 9):
Alaska did multiple MSY-SAT flights around the time of Katrina. We sent a 734 there and it did 2-3 round trips/day for a few days.

You guys might want to think about sending that 734 back down here down .....depending on a probable tropical system forecast in the northeastern Gulf beginning tomorrow.

Tom at MSY
"The criminal ineptitude makes you furious"-Bruce Springsteen, after seeing firsthand the damage from Hurricane Katrina
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 12:56 am

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 3):

In fact I don't think I've ever even seen an AS plane here

Out of curiosity, where in the (geographical) South/Southeast do they serve other than Florida?

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 5):
As for Midwest, it is definitely true that the market for two carriers between New Orleans and Kansas City might not support two carriers,

Probably true. Though, IIRC, didn't Vanguard and Midwest Express fly here concurrently for a while?

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 8):
the tourism industry in N.O is really coming back strong

It is  Confused  Confused

Quoting PavlovsDog (Reply 7):
How about Allegiant? They could serve a lot of cities in the leisure market to which there is no current service. While MSY isn't Vegas or Orlando it does has quite a bit of a draw as a leisure destination.

So you're saying: use Allegiant to draw pax from smaller markets to NOLA? Or am I misreading this-- because there's not a chance they'd do well from here on the likes of MSY-LAS/MCO, as DL and WN have those destinations well-covered.
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MSYtristar
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:02 am

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 11):
Out of curiosity, where in the (geographical) South/Southeast do they serve other than Florida?

I guess just MCO and MIA....DFW also but that's more Southwest.

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 11):
It is

Yep, this Fall/Winter is supposed to be a huge success for the city. And i've heard great news from some friends/family working in the city.
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:08 am

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 11):
Though, IIRC, didn't Vanguard and Midwest Express fly here concurrently for a while?

They did. Both offered 2x daily service for a while before YX cut back to one and eventually none.
 
PavlovsDog
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:08 am

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 11):
So you're saying: use Allegiant to draw pax from smaller markets to NOLA?

That's what I'm saying. New Orleans is a significant tourist destination but is served from very few markets. One or two flights a week from 15-20 cities is what I'm talking about. It may not work for Allegiant but it would entail little risk now that have established themselves in origin markets. They have ambitious growth plans. Their planes have to go somewhere. New Orleans seems probable at some point.
 
doug_or
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:19 am

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 6):
I think they released a 10 year "growth plan" or something similar a few years back, and cities like MSY, PIT, ATL were on it. Hopefully they'll get some new metal over the next few years. It seems like they have more potential with more east coast flying than Hawaii, but that's just my opinion.

The "2010 plan" was a joke. It would have required Alsaka to at least quadrople in size over 10 years. There were tons of flights that would make plenty of a.nutters drool, but I don't think it was ever more than short term moral booster.
When in doubt, one B pump off
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:21 am

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 12):
Yep, this Fall/Winter is supposed to be a huge success for the city.

Based on what?

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 12):
And i've heard great news from some friends/family working in the city.

...such as?

Quoting PavlovsDog (Reply 14):
New Orleans is a significant tourist destination but is served from very few markets. One or two flights a week from 15-20 cities is what I'm talking about.

I could see something like that. Can think of up to 5 B-gates in the East terminal screamin' to have their name put on it!
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:27 am

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 16):
Based on what?

Based on a large number of conventions and corporate meetings scheduled here starting in October.

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 16):
...such as?

Strong hotel occupancy and an overall increase in foot traffic in the tourist areas...the busiest it has been since K is what I am told.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:40 am

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 17):
Based on a large number of conventions and corporate meetings scheduled here starting in October.

Not to be a killjoy, but isn't that really just small and more regional gatherings. From everything I've been able to determine, we've actually experienced a significant decrease in bookings for major (2,500+ in attendance) events, and even more so for those scheduled more than 12mo prior).
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:48 am

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 18):
From everything I've been able to determine, we've actually experienced a significant decrease in bookings for major (2,500+ in attendance) events, and even more so for those scheduled more than 12mo prior).

I heard a lady from the CVB speak recently (on a WWL interview) and she reiterated what I said. The CVB is very pleased with both the large conventions booked this fall (a couple of 25,000+ ones, as well) and the increase in corporate bookings which will keep the convention center busy. Like I said, this is the busiest the city has been from a visitor's standpoint in over two years. Good news, my friend!
 
as739x
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 2:57 am

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 11):

Alaska serves SEA-MIA/MCO/DFW and PDX-MCO (started last week)

** ATL/IAH/MSY always in the rumor mill

ASSFO
"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 3:39 am

Quoting AS739X (Reply 20):
ATL/IAH/MSY always in the rumor mill

...unlikely as it may be, would certainly be a hoot to get a carrier's service before Houston. Though, definitely see ATL as the winner here-- due to DL's cooperation with AS, further distance from DFW, and probable lack over overlap with the Florida markets.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
as739x
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 3:54 am

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 21):

Agreed. I think Atlanta is likely, New Orleans not likely soon, and Houston possible. Iv'e heard that Houston in not coming soon from the CEO, but other rumbles I hear are that maybe in '08. Time will tell...

ASSFO
"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 1:49 pm

Out of curiosity... USA3000 ops scheduled service as well right? What non-Florida South/Southeastern cities do they serve as such, if any?
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 6:55 pm

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 23):
Out of curiosity... USA3000 ops scheduled service as well right?

I know they go to FLL...saw them there two weeks ago. Also MCO and a few others.

BTW, SX just announced GPT. Obviously, they are not counting on local CMH-GPT traffic, which is virtually non existent. But do you think they'll actually get people to drive from MSY to GPT? With the headache of I-10 lately, it'l be a hard sell for most people.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 8:11 pm

...and considering the combined cost of that, plus having to schedule a completely independent connection (as, like you said, I sincerely doubt many people will constitute just the nonstop O&D), yeah, tough sell.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 8:44 pm

Fred...speaking of LCC's in our neck of the woods...have you heard anything in regards to how F9's doing in BTR?

BTW...notice that D will be running 3x 757 on MSY-ATL starting next month?
 
SANFan
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 9:02 pm

Yeah but come on, do we actually count SX as an airline or a busline? Lordy knows, all those people bound for Columbus, from both NO and the Biloxi/Gulfport region will be cramming that "form of transport" operated by SX! (And just in time for the wonderful Ohio winter season, too!)

bb
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 9:37 pm

Quoting SANFan (Reply 27):
Yeah but come on, do we actually count SX as an airline or a busline?

I'm not sure. I guess it's an airline in theory. Maybe I'll drive up to CHA to try them out one day.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 10:10 pm

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 26):
have you heard anything in regards to how F9's doing in BTR?

They're advertising there much more so than I ever saw them do at MSY.
...not quite sure it translates to brand identification though: when I ask anyone from BTR if they've ever heard of F9, the answer's always "no". However, I'd say about 10% of those who reply no, also say they remember a commercial/add about an airline with talking animals on the tail. They usually still have no idea who that airline is, where they come from, or that they serve BTR.

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 26):
BTW...notice that D will be running 3x 757 on MSY-ATL starting next month?

*slap* duh!
...bittersweet. VERY happy to see more capacity (the thought of RJs to ATL gave me the dry-heaves), but it's still kinda sad when you think back to just a few years ago when 757s were often the smallest thing they sent us from that hub.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 10:20 pm

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 29):
but it's still kinda sad when you think back to just a few years ago when 757s were often the smallest thing they sent us from that hub.

Yes indeed. At the very least DL still has about a dozen cans in MSY to remind us of the glory days.

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 29):
They're advertising there much more so than I ever saw them do at MSY.

Interesting.

If I had to bet money, I'd say the afternoon flights is doing fairly well, but that 6:00am flight is probably going out lighter. 6:00am flights are more of a tough sell.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 10:42 pm

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 30):
At the very least DL still has about a dozen cans in MSY to remind us of the glory days.

Um, yay  eyebrow 

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 30):
6:00am flights are more of a tough sell.

...they are?
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 10:48 pm

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 31):
...they are?

Well, F9's 6:00am out of MSY was generally pretty empty compared to the 3:00pm flight. From what I've experienced they are really hit or miss. Only the business markets fill those EMO's consistently.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 10:53 pm

I LOVE pre-dawn flights, and just about every one I take (granted, it's on trunk routes a la MSY-IAH/ATL) is packed to the brim.

That said, F9's MSY operation was a mystery to me:
from what I hear, they did very well on the afternoon flight, but didn't feel they could justify the station with only a single daily. Yet, when they added the 2nd flight, its losses were sufficient to leech off of the successful flight and threaten its numbers despite its significantly stronger performance.

You know of anything like that, when you were with 'em?
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Thu Sep 20, 2007 11:02 pm

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 33):
You know of anything like that, when you were with 'em?

One of the VP's paid a visit sometime in '05 and I asked him about the constant shuffle between 1 and 2 flights. He told me that the afternoon flight was profitable for the airline since it started flying there. He said the 6:00am flight was a big money loser, but when they switched it to a 6:50pm departure, it performed well, but not well enough to keep it year-round. They were going to do one year-round and the 2nd seasonally from like October through May I think it was. When I was in DEN after K someone from rev. management showed me a chart of MSY's operating performance, and it clearly showed that with one flight, it made a TON of money for the airline, and when they had two flights, it was pretty much break even.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Fri Sep 21, 2007 1:07 am

...so what then was the point of adding the 2nd flight? Was the sole op insufficient to cover station costs-- but if that's the case, how then could it be said that it was profitable?

That's what I don't get about their situation here.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Next U.S Airline To Serve MSY

Fri Sep 21, 2007 1:15 am

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 35):
...so what then was the point of adding the 2nd flight? Was the sole op insufficient to cover station costs-- but if that's the case, how then could it be said that it was profitable?

That's what I don't get about their situation here

I have no idea. At one point the EMO left MSY at 9:30am as opposed to 6:00am. When asked why that time didn't work, his response was that the ground time for the aircraft ended up being too long....from approx. 10:30pm to 9:30am.

F9 never could get a good grasp of its MSY schedule.