dfw-man
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If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 7:27 am

During the past year or so I have noticed that when the topic of American Airlines expanding one of the frequent questions that come up is where will AA get the planes from.Which hub is in most need of new or freed up aircraft to expand the way AA would like to and when will AA have enough aircraft to do so?I think that they are pretty set at DFW but I could be wrong any help on this is much appreciated.
 
MAH4546
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 8:11 am

Miami and, while not an official hub, New York City-JFK, are most prime for growth, especially international growth, especially if considered in % increase. They also have a new terminal facility at JFK, and will have one at MIA in 2010. Miami has virtually no capacity restrictions. When the construction is done, the airport will be able to handle 60M+ passengers a year, which is significantly more than it handles (~34M a year) now. JFK, though, and New York in general, is definitely becoming congested.

Dallas is always prime for growth, as well. O'Hare is at it's capacity limits, while San Juan and St. Louis are at pretty good sizes. I also think you will see growth out of LA.
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OB1504
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 8:24 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 1):
Miami has virtually no capacity restrictions. When the construction is done, the airport will be able to handle 60M+ passengers a year, which is significantly more than it handles (~34M a year) now. JFK, though, and New York in general, is definitely becoming congested.

What about summer year-round thunderstorms? As MIA begins to handle more passengers per year, could they have the same devastating effect that they do on airports like JFK?
 
MAH4546
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 8:28 am

Quoting OB1504 (Reply 2):

What about summer year-round thunderstorms? As MIA begins to handle more passengers per year, could they have the same devastating effect that they do on airports like JFK?

Even by 2012, MIA will still be operating at probably only 60% of the entire airport's capacity. I don't think it's going to be a much more different situation than it is now. Afternoon, summer (not year-round) thunderstorms are a fact of life in Miami.
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CALMSP
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 8:35 am

if AA had the planes??

looks like current fleet consists of 654 a/c.........that seems like plenty to me. Especially when you compare it to our (CO) 368 A/C.
 
miaskies
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:23 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 3):
Afternoon, summer (not year-round) thunderstorms are a fact of life in Miami.

ditto in DFW...and snow storms too

so weather is not a factor...it is what is is!
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ConcordeBoy
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:28 am

Quoting CALMSP (Reply 4):
Especially when you compare it to our (CO) 368 A/C.

...not to mention fleet utilization.
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ERJ170
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:49 am

I don't think the problem is American Airlines needing more aircraft.. I think the problem is American Eagle having the right size aircraft..

If American Eagle was able to switch about 5/8 of their current 308 aircrafts for something a bit larger.. it would make a world of difference.. instead of having so many seats in the 50 and under category.. they could have them in the 70-95 range.. that would make a world of difference..
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access-air
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 10:29 am

Hmmmm, when they gobbled up TWA in 1999, the had alot of planes...but instead of concentrating on maintaining the STL hub they shut it down...and parked many planes....Seems to me they didnt know they had a good thing right in their midst....I would love to see AA go back and rebuild STL into a major hub as it was, as maybe it would ease the already over crowded mess at ORD and DFW....

Access-Air
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MAH4546
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 10:53 am

Quoting ERJ170 (Reply 7):
I don't think the problem is American Airlines needing more aircraft.. I think the problem is American Eagle having the right size aircraft..

Both are problems. AA needs more 40-50 seat aircraft, but they definitely need a 100-seat aircraft in their fleet. These are things that will be resolved hopefully within a year or so, after pilot issues are sorted out.
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moman
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 11:19 am

Quoting Access-Air (Reply 8):
Hmmmm, when they gobbled up TWA in 1999, the had alot of planes...but instead of concentrating on maintaining the STL hub they shut it down...and parked many planes....Seems to me they didnt know they had a good thing right in their midst....I would love to see AA go back and rebuild STL into a major hub as it was, as maybe it would ease the already over crowded mess at ORD and DFW....

AA tried the three hub strategy. It was easy to choose between DFW, STL, and ORD connections for two years (2001-2003), but the only reason people chose STL was because the price was right (low to fill the flights), and when AA pulled back in Oct 2003 it was to decrease unprofitable flying. They didn't ground that many planes either, only some of the older MD80s (around 30 overall) and let go of the 717s. They have recently disposed of the ~19 TWA 757 aircraft.

Thus, it wasn't that planes were parked so much that they were moved to more profitable locations. In time there will be a return to STL of mainline flights but nothing like there was in the past. I'd be real pleased to see 100 mainline flights a day.
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BHMNONREV
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 11:32 am

Quoting MoMan (Reply 10):
Thus, it wasn't that planes were parked so much that they were moved to more profitable locations. In time there will be a return to STL of mainline flights but nothing like there was in the past. I'd be real pleased to see 100 mainline flights a day.

As would I, but I believe a more optimistic number would be in the 75 range, with another 30-40 Connection/Eagle flights. As well as a possible return to London??
 
bok269
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 12:34 pm

The A300s are scheduled to leave the fleet in 2012. Most likely, JFK and MIA, where most A300 ops are based, will see the replacement aircraft for the Caribbean and South America runs.
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MAH4546
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 12:43 pm

Quoting BHMNONREV (Reply 11):
As would I, but I believe a more optimistic number would be in the 75 range, with another 30-40 Connection/Eagle flights.

That is being way too optimistic. As we see with Delta right now, future of growth is international traffic, not domestic. That is why MIA and JFK will likely see the most benefits from AA growing in the future, unless something suddenly changes. It is extremely unlikely St. Louis will be at a level much higher than they are today for American Airlines in the foreseeable future, unless the O'Hare situation gets extremely drastic.

Quoting BHMNONREV (Reply 11):
As well as a possible return to London??

I wouldn't rule out STL-LON returning, but not in the near-term.
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toxtethogrady
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 12:50 pm

Quoting MoMan (Reply 10):

AA tried the three hub strategy.

Aw, heck - they even tried a 6-hub strategy. It didn't work too well - three of the hubs have been abandoned. As of now, AA has DFW, ORD and MIA as hubs, and JFK, LAX and SJU as focus cities. LGA appears to be a focus city for Eagle.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 1:28 pm

Quoting Toxtethogrady (Reply 14):
As of now, AA has DFW, ORD and MIA as hubs, and JFK, LAX and SJU as focus cities. LGA appears to be a focus city for Eagle.

...something about a city in Missouri?
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MAH4546
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 1:34 pm

Quoting Toxtethogrady (Reply 14):

Aw, heck - they even tried a 6-hub strategy. It didn't work too well - three of the hubs have been abandoned. As of now, AA has DFW, ORD and MIA as hubs, and JFK, LAX and SJU as focus cities. LGA appears to be a focus city for Eagle.

There are five hubs - Dallas, Chicago, Miami, San Juan, and St. Louis. There are the "official" focus cities at Los Angeles, Boston, JFK, LaGuardia, and Raleigh, and there are the "unofficial" focus cities at Austin and Fort Lauderdale.
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SABE
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Fri Sep 21, 2007 2:40 pm

Quoting MoMan (Reply 10):
They have recently disposed of the ~19 TWA 757 aircraft.

Are all of the ex-TW B752s gone ? I noticed there were a few still listed as active in airfleets.net today, and I hoped it was a mistake  Wink
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Cubsrule
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 1:25 am

I have to believe they are holding on to far more gates than they need at STL for some reason besides keeping competition out, because there are plenty of other gates for any other carrier's taking. That suggests to me that they anticipate some growth there, though probably in the medium to long term (maybe 5-10 years) rather than in the short term.
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elmothehobo
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 3:05 am

MIA, JFK and DFW would see the most growth.

Boston was cut back a lot because of aircraft being pulled from service, though I'm not too sure we'd see additional flights from Boston, save boosting frequencies to MIA, DFW, ORD and LAX.

American clearly wants Los Angeles to keep growing, they just don't have the gate space.
 
cloud4000
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 5:47 am

If AA wants to expand from LAX, they better get-- or build-- a new terminal because I went through it a couple of weeks ago and it wasn't a pretty sight. It's only about 10 gates or show and completely crowded. Their terminal in BOS is better, in my opinion.
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LAXdude1023
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 5:53 am

Quoting MIASkies (Reply 5):
ditto in DFW...and snow storms too

Snow storms arent really an issue at DFW. They happen once maybe twice a year.

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 19):
MIA, JFK and DFW would see the most growth.

 checkmark   checkmark   checkmark 
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JetBlueGuy2006
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 6:09 am

Does anyone think that MQ would benefit from something in the range of the E-170/75/90?
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jacobin777
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 6:29 am

....SJC... stirthepot .....
"Up the Irons!"
 
MAH4546
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 7:04 am

In terms of overall capacity, I see growth as:

1) JFK
2) DFW
3) MIA

In terms of % capacity, I see growth as:
1) JFK
2) MIA
3) DFW

From New York City/JFK, look for growth internationally, especially to Europe. Milan and Barcelona are just the start. Two more European destinations are being considered to launch next summer, but that is still certainly not definite. You will see Eagle continue to connect some larger markets to feed into the European ops, such as the new Pittsburgh-New York City service. I wouldn't be surprised if they connect a few more dots to some of the more higher-yielding Caribbean resorts as well.

From Miami/MIA, you will see growth, IMO, largely to, of course, Latin America/Caribbean and regionally. Look for American Eagle to better utilize their under-utilized Miami-based ATRs. They are launching Sarasota and Savannah this December, and anything that is within 650 miles of Miami is pretty fair game for American Eagle ATR service. I know they are in discussions with Marathon and Naples airport officials - both of which lack commerical service on a major carrier - to return to those two markets with ATRs from Miami. As I've said before, a daily ATR-72 to Gulfport/Biloxi, Fort Walton Beach, and Mobile would not shock me, nor would 2x daily service to Pensacola. There are also markets in the Bahamas and other nearby islands, as well as Merida, Mexico, that have potential for promise. American Eagle will enter those markets if local resorts provide some revenue guarantees.

With ERJs from Miami, growth can only go so far because Miami is not an ERJ base currently. So any growth in routes is going to be limited because scheduling an ERJ to Miami means finding a way to get here from another ERJ-base. American Eagle's launch of Miami-Fayetteville was more than just a means of pleasing Wal*Mart. While the flight was pretty much a sure thing thanks to American's huge corporate travel contract with Wal*Mart (and there is a slot of wholesale/distributer traffic from Miami itself, as well as, obviously, Latin America), but it was a test on a how a very untraditional and small market, which doesn't even has 50 daily O&D pax, could work from Miami. So far results are excellent. Loads are high, and yields are awesome. It could pave the way for AA to open up other smaller markets from Miami in the short- and long-term future, such as Baton Rouge, Chattanooga, and Columbia (SC). I don't foresee this happening in the short-term future, but I do in the longer term. Short-term, I think we will see Birmingham and Charleston, and an eventual reinforcement of frequencies to Columbus, Memphis, and Richmond.

With adding 75-to-100-seat aircraft, American opens up a huge window of opportunity. Albany, Buffalo, Halifax, Ottawa, Providence...so many oppurtunities exist here.

With domestic mainline from Miami, there are those "when not if" markets. They are the same markets they have always been, and over the past few years AA has entered a few of them - Charlotte, Indianapolis, Minneapolis, and, this winter, Phoenix. Those mainline markets are Austin, Kansas City, Orange County, San Diego, and Seattle.

Internationally short-haul, there is always opportunity to expand, of course. There are a lot of markets served only from San Juan that will eventually be connected to Miami. Antigua is expected to get Miami non-stops by January. Bonaire, Grenada, Fort de France, and Pointe Pitre are markets I expect AA will come into in the future. There is also an opportunity to fly to Cartagena, which is "open skies" so does not require Colombia-USA slots, as well as possibly Pereira, pending Colombia expanidng their bilatteral. Of course, we all know AA wants to fly to Valencia, Venezuela, but the Venezuelan government has yet to approve it. In Central America, Roatan remains a great opportunity that I hope AA takes up soon.

Long-haul, there is a great oppurtunity to take advantage of Africa. I don't foresee this happening, though, until 787s come on line. Accra, Dakar, Lagos, and South Africa, the last three of which have strong local traffic to South Florida, could be great markets. In Europe, if Alitalia does transfer Miami service to Rome, Milan service is inevitable. Giving the strengthing of ties with Iberia, I find Barcelona a likely expansion point too. If ties with British Airways and Brussels Airlines become stronger, then service to Manchester and Brussels is not far-fetched. This is much more long-term, though. I think most oneWorld Europe traffic growth from Miami will come from other OneWorld airlines. In the short-term, I only foresee another London flight, and possibly Milan or Barcelona. In the very long-term, American Airlines has already expressed their interset in flying Miami-Tokyo when the 787 comes into their fleet. To South America long-haul, oppurtunities will hopefully open in Brazil, as well as Cordoba and Asunción.

From Dallas, growth will be pretty typical. I could see a new Asia route, and a new Europe route or two (Madrid is a given within two years, IMO), along with more domestic expansion, mainly with RJs to local points.

My mini-analysis does not take strong account of AA's current shortage of aircraft to really expand. I however, don't foresee this to be a continuing problem as I'm confident that AA will be making aircraft orders for both long-haul and regional aircraft in 2008.

[Edited 2007-09-22 00:31:05]
a.
 
LAXdude1023
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 7:12 am

Excellent Anaylsis Mark!!! I enjoyed reading it.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 24):
From Dallas, growth will be pretty typical. I could see a new Asia route, and a new Europe route or two (Madrid is a given within two years, IMO), along with more domestic expansion, mainly with RJs to local points.

I would love to hear what people think is possible in the way of DFW-Asia/Europe in the next few years. I agree that DFW-MAD is on the horizon. What about DFW-ICN? I dont think KE will hang around much longer and would AA be interested in this one? KE has decent loads (from what ive heard) given that they are working with no connections on the DFW end. I dont know about yields. If not ICN, what other options in Asia would there be from DFW?
It is what it is...
 
qqflyboy
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 7:24 am

Quoting SABE (Reply 17):
Are all of the ex-TW B752s gone ?

There are still 11 ex-TWA 752s active in the fleet. My understanding is they will be gone by November.

On the JFK side of growth, we keep hearing HNL, AMS, FRA, NCE, LIS, DUS and SVO.
The views expressed are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect my employer’s views.
 
MAH4546
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 7:32 am

Quoting QQflyboy (Reply 26):
On the JFK side of growth, we keep hearing HNL, AMS, FRA, NCE, LIS, DUS and SVO.

I've been told Moscow (DME, though, not SVO) and Nice will happen this summer if they can get the schedules to work. One way is removing some 763s form Hawai'i.
a.
 
qqflyboy
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 7:34 am

Also, as an FYI, I know there was another thread recently talking about whether or not AA may seek second hand 757s. In a recent employee Q&A session with AA, this very question was addressed. Here's what AA had to say:

"Since the 757 is no longer in production, we aren’t taking any new deliveries, and we’re not acquiring used ones. The number of “regular" 757s in our fleet won’t change." ("Regular" referring to 757-223s as opposed to ex-TWA birds.)

I wouldn't be surprised if we see AA 757s crossing the pond, especially from JFK, more often next year.

Here is also more Q&A that may be of interest in this thread. It addresses where AA will get the aicraft from to fly JFK-BCN/MIL/STN.

"Q: AA is starting new service from JFK to Milan, Barcelona, and the UK, where are we getting these airplanes from?

"A: Since we’re not taking delivery of additional IFS aircraft in 2008, next Spring’s new JFK-Europe routes (and also the new ORDEZE and JFKSTN services we’re adding this Fall) will have to be funded in different ways around the system. As a few examples, we’ll be permanently canceling DFWZRH service at the end of next month. Then, in February, 2008, we’ll change the MIAGRU schedule from 3 night-time trips in each direction to 2 night-time and 1 day-time, meaning one less aircraft will be parked during the day in GRU and one less during the day in MIA. In April, we’ll cancel our 6th JFKLHR to fund a 2nd JFKSTN. In the peak summer of 2008, we’ll operate the 2nd MIAGIG one less day per week and fly MIAMVD on different days than we did in summer 2007 (still 3 per week) so those two routes can share an aircraft. There are other actions not detailed here, but that should give you an idea."

(Edited to add add'l Q&A)

[Edited 2007-09-22 00:42:11]

[Edited 2007-09-22 00:46:21]
The views expressed are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect my employer’s views.
 
qqflyboy
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 7:44 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 27):
DME, though, not SVO

I didn't even consider DME. I had heard Moscow in general and assumed SVO. My bad.
The views expressed are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect my employer’s views.
 
MAH4546
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 7:53 am

Quoting QQflyboy (Reply 29):

I didn't even consider DME. I had heard Moscow in general and assumed SVO. My bad.

OneWorld mainly uses DME, hence they are looking at DME. Finnair, IIRC, will soon be the only one at SVO.
a.
 
jacobin777
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 9:13 am

....ORD-DXB possibly? How about USofA-BOM....I think that might make sense.....ORD-HKG I think would make sense also, especially given that HKG is OneWorld CX mega-hub.....

I would love to see USofA-Africa also, that would be possibly quite lucrative......
"Up the Irons!"
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 9:21 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 24):
Accra, Dakar, Lagos, and South Africa, the last three of which have strong local traffic to South Florida, could be great markets.

...and not ABJ?

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 25):
I dont think KE will hang around much longer

Based on ___?
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
elmothehobo
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 10:40 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 31):
I would love to see USofA-Africa also, that would be possibly quite lucrative......

Miami - Lagos - Johannesburg is my bet. It'll be a license to print money.

Quoting QQflyboy (Reply 28):
In April, we’ll cancel our 6th JFKLHR to fund a 2nd JFKSTN.

This slot will go to one of the routes they're moving to Gatwick, correct?

Quoting ConcordeBoy (Reply 32):
...and not ABJ?

Though stable (rather, more stable than in years past), Africa isn't South America and I doubt we'll see American serve Cote d'Ivoire. Steak is on me if I'm wrong of course.

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 27):
I've been told Moscow (DME, though, not SVO) and Nice will happen this summer if they can get the schedules to work.

Is there not a limit on US-Russia frequencies?

Quoting QQflyboy (Reply 26):
On the JFK side of growth, we keep hearing HNL

As a year-round flight or a winter seasonal?

Quoting LAXdude1023 (Reply 21):
Snow storms arent really an issue at DFW. They happen once maybe twice a year.

But when they do happen, the airport grinds to a complete halt.

Quoting Cloud4000 (Reply 20):
Their terminal in BOS is better, in my opinion.

I'd beg to differ, though with all the renovations BOS will be in the same ball park as LAX's terminal. Too bad they aren't serving it as well as they should be.
 
MAH4546
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 10:44 am

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 33):
This slot will go to one of the routes they're moving to Gatwick, correct?

I think AA acquired two slots, one from Gulf Air and one from Luxair, for the new DFW/RDU-LHR slots. They are also looking for a third slot to start another MIA-LHR flight. However, I don't know if the Luxair deal went through.

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 33):

Though stable (rather, more stable than in years past), Africa isn't South America and I doubt we'll see American serve Cote d'Ivoire. Steak is on me if I'm wrong of course.

Correct. ABJ isn't happening.

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 33):

Is there not a limit on US-Russia frequencies?

Nothing that will prevent AA from entering the market.

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 33):
Quoting QQflyboy (Reply 26):
On the JFK side of growth, we keep hearing HNL

As a year-round flight or a winter seasonal?

This isn't happening, even though it might be rumoured. AA is short on aircraft, they aren't going to actually dedicate a 1.5 763s to fly JFK-HNL.

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 33):
Miami - Lagos - Johannesburg is my bet. It'll be a license to print money.

Yes, it will be.
a.
 
SABE
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 11:50 am

Quoting QQflyboy (Reply 26):
There are still 11 ex-TWA 752s active in the fleet. My understanding is they will be gone by November.

Thanks for the info!
TUS-DFW-EZE... can't wait to visit home again!
 
iwannagothere
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 12:41 pm

If these Afircan markets would be so lucrative, why has it taken so long for a U.S. airline to take the plunge. Has DL's route been doing well? Why has it taken UA, CO, and AA to follow? I know lack of a/c could be a problem, but wouldnt they move some if these routes if Africa would be so profitable.
 
elmothehobo
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 1:31 pm

Quoting Iwannagothere (Reply 36):
If these Afircan markets would be so lucrative, why has it taken so long for a U.S. airline to take the plunge

Africa has been the domain of European and African carriers, US carriers have left their African services up to their European partners. It has only been in the past few years that the legacies have returned to Africa since Pan Am pulled out in the 1980s.

Part of it can be attributed to traditional values. For the most part, US carriers (up until about 2000) served the same set of international destinations. Airlines have known that there is money to be made in Africa, I have always felt that it was a matter of someone taking the first step, after which other US carriers would follow suit.

Also, until recently, there was much more US-Africa service. Airlines like Nigerian Airlines, Ghana Airways folded, leaving those markets without direct service to the United States (though North American filled in those gaps to some extent), while Ethiopian Airlines has done little to expand its presence in the United States, Kenya Airways has yet to launch service on its own metal.

The demand is there, and US carriers no longer need to route their passengers over Europe, and, as Delta has learned, you can make a pretty penny doing it in house.

Quoting Iwannagothere (Reply 36):
Why has it taken UA, CO, and AA to follow?

Continental was actually the first to try to launch service to Africa. They were, as I understand, left with a bitter taste when the Nigerian authorities started making some demands they didn't want to meet, and that they didn't have the aircraft available. In addition, this was just as Virgin Nigeria was being launched, and the United States and Nigeria could not agree on a way to allow what the US saw as a British controlled carrier fly between the United States and Nigeria.

American ought to be the US carrier with the biggest presence in Africa, because of its strong presence in New York and Miami, which are two of the biggest sources of African traffic in North America (along without Houston IIRC). American's conservative growth strategy has hurt them, and for awhile they didn't have enough aircraft to operate new services to Africa. It is now clear that Africa is not as big a priority for American, as they are devoting six 767s to new routes in Europe and South America

Washington's large African population and the concentration of government traffic ought to make United a prime candidate for launching service to Africa, however, North American, South African Airways and Ethiopian have snagged much of the traffic for the near future. Dulles-Lagos, Dulles-Accra and Dulles-Dakar are all plausible routes, either in combination with each other or separately.

Quoting Iwannagothere (Reply 36):
but wouldnt they move some if these routes if Africa would be so profitable.

Certainly. Doing business in Africa isn't like doing business in South America or Europe, and establishing new stations in Africa (or anywhere for that matter) is costly. Reliability is often an issue that airlines have to deal with, as Delta has learned in Accra, where fuel shortages forced Delta to fly Accra via Dakar on its return sector for a few days. While only a small inconvenience in the grand scheme of things, it is difficult for businesses, particularly in the heavily regulated airline industries to simply open up shop in there highly regulated, odd and often unstable markets.

IMO the best solution to Africa is to buy out North American Airlines. They have the routes, the people and the business squared away.
 
jacobin777
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 2:50 pm

Quoting Iwannagothere (Reply 36):
If these Afircan markets would be so lucrative, why has it taken so long for a U.S. airline to take the plunge.

...EK started JFK-DXB in summer of 2004, when I flew on the route a few weeks into its commencement, their A345 was only 1/2 full...less than 2 1/2 years later, they fly 2xB773ER's and 1 A345...and don't forget, their B773ER's are 10-across....who would have thought there was a market for it (connecting pax or otherwise)?
"Up the Irons!"
 
N353SK
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 4:13 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 9):
but they definitely need a 100-seat aircraft in their fleet.

There's been quite a hole in that area since the retirement of the F100

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 33):
Miami - Lagos - Johannesburg is my bet. It'll be a license to print money.

Is that doable with a 767?
 
MAH4546
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 4:25 pm

Quoting Iwannagothere (Reply 36):
If these Afircan markets would be so lucrative, why has it taken so long for a U.S. airline to take the plunge. Has DL's route been doing well? Why has it taken UA, CO, and AA to follow? I know lack of a/c could be a problem, but wouldnt they move some if these routes if Africa would be so profitable.

Elmo summed it up very well. In addition, the market for USA-Africa is still a very developing market that is nowhere near reaching maturity. It is going to explode, IMO, between 2010-2020. The largest US travel markets to Africa are New York, Washington, Miami, Houston, and Los Angeles. AA is in a great position to exploit it, especially via Miami.

Quoting N353SK (Reply 39):
Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 33):
Miami - Lagos - Johannesburg is my bet. It'll be a license to print money.

Is that doable with a 767?

Sure is.
a.
 
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LTU932
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 4:29 pm

Quoting N353SK (Reply 39):
Is that doable with a 767?

According to the Great Circle Mapper, the MIA-LOS segment may be a tad long at 4893 nm still air range, but still doable for a 767.
 
MAH4546
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 4:41 pm

Quoting LTU932 (Reply 41):
According to the Great Circle Mapper, the MIA-LOS segment may be a tad long at 4893 nm still air range, but still doable for a 767.

Entirely doable. Delta will be using 763s on Atlanta-Lagos, which is 200mi longer.
a.
 
qqflyboy
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 10:24 pm

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 33):
This slot will go to one of the routes they're moving to Gatwick, correct?

Yes, however, I found it interesting they used this cancellation to show where they're getting a/c from to operate JFK-STN. All AA LHR flights are operated with 777s while the STN flights will be operated with 763s. I've also been told, countless times, if AA can secure another slot at LHR that sixth flight will come back. There's enough traffic for AA to have 10 777s everyday JFK-LHR, but alas there are not enough slots/aircraft.

Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 33):
As a year-round flight or a winter seasonal?

Hard to say. AA doesn't seem too keen on seasonal service anymore but I suppose that applies mainly to international routes. There are plenty of seasonal domestic flights (ski destinations) but AA seems to be moving away from more seasonal flying. Having said that, it would be easier, IMO, for AA to operate JFK-HNL on a seasonal basis as both airports are year round stations for JFK. It would be easier to add a flight for a few months and then drop it again. Also, AA has more flexibility with their 763s in the winter as not all flights to Europe operate everyday like they do in the summer, which would free-up aircraft. I know Premium Services/AAdvantage would love to have the flight. They pushed for years to get JFK-LAS and finally got it. Maybe HNL will be next.

Here's more rumor/speculation I heard yesterday. Tell me what you think. I have read several times over the past year Raleigh (RDU) would like to increase international flights from the region. They're new terminal C will open next year with an expanded FIS and much more user friendly set-up. They recently courted DL to start RDU-Mexico (I believe CUN) and are also looking for carriers to fly RDU-FRA and RDU-CDG. DL is interested in growing at RDU. If these routes were truly viable, do you think either AA or DL would do it? AA already has a small base at RDU to handle the daily LGW flight (soon to be LHR). I imagine if AA or DL could get a revenue guarantee (like AA has for LGW) then the service would work. It would be interesting to say the least.

RDU isn't a large market but they have an unusual amount of business traffic with the Research Triangle Park nearby. AA currently has several contracts which make the RDU-LGW flight profitable everyday, even if the plane was empty.
The views expressed are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect my employer’s views.
 
jacobin777
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 10:40 pm

Quoting N353SK (Reply 39):
Quoting ElmoTheHobo (Reply 33):
Miami - Lagos - Johannesburg is my bet. It'll be a license to print money.

Is that doable with a 767?

North American Airlines currently flies JFK-LOS 3x/weekly (Sun/Wed/Fri) which is 4562nm* (MIA-LOS is 4893nm*)


IIRC, SU used to fly LAX-SVO (or was it DME) with their B767's....5281nm*

UA used to fly SFO-CDG with their B767's...4852nm*

*-all are still air ranges...
"Up the Irons!"
 
MSYtristar
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 11:16 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 24):
Antigua is expected to get Miami non-stops by January

I'm surprised those nonstops even went away. My folks used to do MSY-MIA-ANU almost yearly and those 727's were packed to the gills every time.

Quoting QQflyboy (Reply 43):
DL is interested in growing at RDU. If these routes were truly viable, do you think either AA or DL would do it?

I seriously doubt it....especially on DL. RDU is just a decent sized outstation for DL, really. It's just as easy for DL to route RDU-Europe pax throough ATL or JFK (if they fly that route). RDU-FRA/CDG may have a few hundred people a day flying, but with AA already doing London nonstop, the chances of getting another Europe city direct are, in my opinion, quite slim.

I think overall a lot of mid tier markets get caught up in the local O&D traffic figures too much. In a perfect world, if a city had 300 pax/day flying to Paris, you'd think that city could support something like a daily 767...and it very well could. But then you bring yield into the picture, and it changes the story. Airlines just aren't as willing to risk opening new trans oceanic routes these days...especially when the city is not a full fledged hub.
 
qqflyboy
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 11:19 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 44):
SU used to fly LAX-SVO (or was it DME) with their B767's....5281nm*

UA used to fly SFO-CDG with their B767's...4852nm*

The legs of the 763ER are often longer than most would think.

AA has flown SJC-CDG 5,703 miles, and still flies JFK-EZE 5,282 miles and soon will fly ORD-EZE 5,603 miles.
The views expressed are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect my employer’s views.
 
qqflyboy
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sat Sep 22, 2007 11:31 pm

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 45):
I think overall a lot of mid tier markets get caught up in the local O&D traffic figures too much. In a perfect world, if a city had 300 pax/day flying to Paris, you'd think that city could support something like a daily 767...and it very well could. But then you bring yield into the picture, and it changes the story. Airlines just aren't as willing to risk opening new trans oceanic routes these days...especially when the city is not a full fledged hub.

Very true. However, the RDU market is unique in that you have North American and global headquarters for many, many companies in RTP. AA's agreement with GSK to fly LGW is a great example of the local business climate supporting the flight. We're not talking your typical business market here. AA started RDU-LGW with a revenue guarantee from GSK and now has several contracts on that flight. If, and only if, other businesses within the Triangle offer up revenue guarantees, then other int'l flights are more likely, however not a given. My question is who is more likely to jump at the op? AA or DL?

For those unfamiliar with RTP (Research Triangle Park) check out this link for a list of companies which operate there and other facts. Here are a few fast facks: 157 companies operate there, 80% of which have global operations. There are over 39,000 people who work in the RTP everyday. Largest employer: IBM 10,800. Second: GSK 6,400.
http://www.rtp.org/main/index.php?pid=166&sec=1
The views expressed are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect my employer’s views.
 
access-air
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sun Sep 23, 2007 12:22 am

Quoting MoMan (Reply 10):
AA tried the three hub strategy. It was easy to choose between DFW, STL, and ORD connections for two years (2001-2003), but the only reason people chose STL was because the price was right (low to fill the flights), and when AA pulled back in Oct 2003 it was to decrease unprofitable flying.

Sorry, But I will agree to disagree with you because if they wanted to, they could have used STL to be an overflow to the rediculous amounts of flights at Both DFW and ORD, but Mostly ORD.....which is delay ridden all the time!!!
I think this had more to do with the "Bean Counters" trying to cut corners. If AA had no intention of operating STL as a hub at the scale of TWA's operation they should have just kept their fingers out of that pie. However in true fashion for them they did the very same thing to Reno Air and Air Cal. What is wrong with a carrier like AA having some major hubs and then a few smaller hub-ettes? The AA Bean Counters screwed over STL when they pulled back all those flights. Its seems funny also that when AA decided to rid themselves of TWA's B717s that left them without as you said a 100 seater. To top that off they dumped the Fokker 100s a few years later...They would have prolly been in better shape had they kept the B717s and maybe even ordered more.....
Its all in the past now..no use growsing about it all now, like AA would actually ramp up their flights in STL anyway....They would rather cram more flights into ORD!!!!

Access-Air
Remember, Wherever you go, there you are!!!!
 
albird87
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RE: If AA Had The Planes Which Hub Would Benefit?

Sun Sep 23, 2007 1:27 am

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 27):
I've been told Moscow (DME, though, not SVO) and Nice will happen this summer if they can get the schedules to work. One way is removing some 763s form Hawai'i.

Well I guess that DME would be a 763 but i expect NCE to be a 757...
JFK should be one of AA's main Europe Destinations with flights to all over Europe (EDI, GLA, AMS, FRA, MAD, BCN, DME, DUB) using a mixture of 757s and 763s.
MIA could benefit from more destinations in Europe to feed people onto the caribbean and central/south america. MIA I also see as the gateway for AA to start its Africa flights (maybe with the flight continuing upto JFK) But these will have to wait till AA gets its act together and we see a great order for some new long haul aricraft!! (come on 787!!!)

Quoting QQflyboy (Reply 28):
In April, we’ll cancel our 6th JFKLHR to fund a 2nd JFKSTN

What flight will be cancelled from JFK?? I presume one of the two that leave within half an hour of each other.


Perhaps AA may look also to find some 763s to have some expansion before new birds are ordered!!