centrair
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NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Wed Sep 26, 2007 2:07 pm

We all know that NWA was given "tenative approval" to fly DTW-PVG.

Quote:
EAGAN, Minn. – (September 25, 2007) – Northwest Airlines (NYSE: NWA) today was notified by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) that its bid to provide new nonstop service between Detroit and Shanghai has been tentatively approved effective March 25, 2009.

We all know that many of you don't like it that NW doesn't use their current route authority. (They only have DTW-PEK...nothing else...all other China access is 5th freedom).

But....

What is significant is not that they got the route. But the aircraft they plan on using. Not a huge capacigy 747-400 but a 787-8. This is the 2nd confirmed 787 route for NWA. The first stated by NW corporate was the restart of JFK-NRT.

Wasn't NW's plan that they would use their PEK authority as well as new PVG authority?

Currently NW flies:
744 ... DTW-NRT x2
744 ... NRT-PVG
332 ... NRT-PEK

After 2009, these routes could be:
OPTION A
744 ... DTW-NRT x2
744 ... NRT-PVG
332 ... NRT-PEK
787 ... DTW-PVG
787 ... DTW-PEK

OPTION B
744 ... DTW-NRT x2
787 ... DTW-PVG
787 ... DTW-PEK
787 ... NRT-PVG (extension from JFK)
332 ... NRT-PEK

OPTION A gives west coast connections via NRT and maintains capacity, while introducing additional non-stop capacity.

OPTION B maintains west coast conections via NRT with lower capacity, while introducting additional non-stop service and connecting service. It also allows for NWA style aircraft rotation at NRT.

1) What do you all think NW will do about aircraft usage and capacity on with the addition of the China routes?
2) Exactly how many 787s will be in their fleet by spring of 2009?
3) How will NWA juggle the NRT routes and the new non-stop routes?

Interesting to note that on US-China routes, NW will be using the smallest aircraft.

UA has a combination of 744s and 777s (mostly 744s)
DL will be using a 772
CO uses 772s
AA uses 772s
US will be using an A340 (most likely an A343)
NW will be using a 787-8

(Please no debates about NW and their route authority, it has been discussed a gazilion times. You don't like how they are using their route authority and their long standing 5th freedom rights? Fine. But I want to discuss aircraft usage on these authorities and the over all big picture.)
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
Transpac787
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Wed Sep 26, 2007 3:36 pm

It's my understanding that NWA does not have authority to operate "redundant" routes to China. That is, DTW-NRT-PEK, in addition to DTW-PEK. Only this newest route authority for DTW-PVG is granting them that.

Quoting Centrair (Thread starter):
Currently NW flies:
744 ... DTW-NRT x2
744 ... NRT-PVG
332 ... NRT-PEK

Remember that NWA also flies NRT-CAN with a 752.

Quoting Centrair (Thread starter):
Interesting to note that on US-China routes, NW will be using the smallest aircraft.

While it is the smallest, it will still have the lowest CASM out of all of them.

I guess the only thing anyone can agree on, is that we won't know for sure until NWA makes formal announcements, with regard to new routes. In the meantime, it is fun to speculate. Personally, I think NWA won't operate too many Asia nonstops, and the 787's will only further grow the NRT hub, as well as NGO and KIX. The 787 may allow NWA to reenter markets such as FUK, KUL, and others that were dropped as a result of 9/11 and other downsizings. Bringing back SEA-HKG with the 787 also seems to be a widespread and popular rumor.

One more point of interest, is the shear number of 787's NWA has on order.....possibly 68x of them to be delivered. This begs the question of what is NWA going to do with 68x new widebodies?? Questions like that fuel the rumors that NW intends to convert all their 744's to 744F's, to replace all of the 742F's. So, maybe the final plan for the 787 is to allow for a decrease of capacity in favor of increasing frequency on all Asian routes.

But, like I said....who knows?!? I can't wait to see though!!  

Edit: grammar

[Edited 2007-09-26 08:40:25]
 
Flighty
Posts: 7649
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Wed Sep 26, 2007 3:51 pm

Quoting Transpac787 (Reply 1):

One more point of interest, is the shear number of 787's NWA has on order.....possibly 68x of them to be delivered. This begs the question of what is NWA going to do with 68x new widebodies?? Questions like that fuel the rumors that NW intends to convert all their 744's to 744F's. So, maybe the final plan for the 787 is to allow for a decrease capacity in favor of increasing frequency on all Asian routes.

NW probably has long range plans to "dominate" China similar to how UA does it today, only wider and shallower.

SEA-PVG, SEA-PEK

PDX-PVG

MSP-PVG, MSP-PEK

DTW-PVG, DTW-PEK

BOS-PVG, BOS-PEK

JFK-PVG, JFK-PEK

LAS-PEK

DTW or MSP to: CAN, Shenzhen, Suzhou, Hangzhou

Laugh if you want, but these new 787s are for India/China to USA. Plus some Japan. And that's about it. You see all those flights between Europe and the USA today? Hundreds? Yeah, thought so. Soon China will exceed Europe in business activity... lotsa flights needed. All the above citypairs will probably get served +1x by 2012.

I don't think NW will be retiring A330s. Instead they will launch new Asian flights.
 
centrair
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Wed Sep 26, 2007 4:02 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 2):
Laugh if you want, but these new 787s are for India/China to USA. Plus some Japan. And that's about it. You see all those flights between Europe and the USA today? Hundreds? Yeah, thought so. Soon China will exceed Europe in business activity... lotsa flights needed. All the above citypairs will probably get served +1x by 2012.

Bingo. NW can compete to Europe in a limited way. They will use KL to deal with Europe. NW has been serving Asia since 1947 and they are not about to give up on the region they opened up.

I think that we will see more India as it is not as hard to enter as China. KUL will come back but I think that might take time, Malaysia hasn't been doing well, just look at MH. I think we might even see SGN in the mix.

Quoting Transpac787 (Reply 1):
It's my understanding that NWA does not have authority to operate "redundant" routes to China. That is, DTW-NRT-PEK, in addition to DTW-PEK. Only this newest route authority for DTW-PVG is granting them that.

What are the restrictions on NW's 5th freedom rights?
If they can't do NRT-PEK and use their current standing DTW-PEK authority, can they use that 5th freedom to maybe open up Dalian, Hangzhou or Shenyang?
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
flydreamliner
Posts: 1928
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Wed Sep 26, 2007 5:06 pm

Ah, but the treaties.

The US-China bilateral agreement is fairly restrictive. NW will never get some huge, sweeping mainland US-China network with a dozen 787 flights daily. NW can't push the traffic to China that some of their competitors can, thus the 787s on the China routes. DTW doesn't really have much O and D, which doesn't help. That and they are competing with their own routes going 5th freedom through NRT.

As for SGN, the current treaty only allows each nation to nominate a single carrier to serve the other. Right now the US has nominated UA to be their carrier to serve vietnam (the daily 747-400 flight routed through HKG). That would need to go away for NW to get in on it.

If MH joins skyteam then maybe we can see a US carrier in KUL, something I would VERY much like to see... (getting there from the US right now is more connections and more hassle... no US airlines even codeshare into KUL... UA codeshares into Kota Kinabalu via a less than daily Asiana flight, maybe?

Quoting Centrair (Reply 3):

I think that we will see more India as it is not as hard to enter as China. KUL will come back but I think that might take time, Malaysia hasn't been doing well, just look at MH. I think we might even see SGN in the mix.

We will probably see India, TLV, maybe even a return to aus. There is no skyteam on US to aus, I'm pretty sure that NW could easily pack a 787 daily to SYD from LAX or SEA with their connections... hell, their 787s could even make it to SYD from MSP... but no real reason to do that, I suppose.. just lose more payload.
"Let the world change you, and you can change the world"
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Wed Sep 26, 2007 9:42 pm

NW's choice for the 787 is based upon two reason 1) is that they believe that the sudden influx of new China flights in a very short period of time will significantly dillute yields 2) the 787 will be such a game changer that it will be prefered by passengers 3) NW will use the nonstop DTW-PVG for higher yielding traffic, while continuing to route low yield/leisure/consolidator traffic over its NRT hub into China.

As I've said before NW said that would restart JFK-NRT with the 787 at the time they suspended the route, but since then there has been no official reconfirmation of this promise. As we all know, things in this industry change, and until you see the aircraft at the gate loading for its first flight on a particular route - nothing is 100% positive. I say that because a lot can change over two years....so I wouldn't be surprised for that to go either way.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Wed Sep 26, 2007 10:58 pm

How is NW going to leverage its NRT assets and simultaneously overfly it with 787s?
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
azjubilee
Posts: 3376
Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2000 5:26 am

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Wed Sep 26, 2007 11:16 pm

IMO, NWA will not let NRT die. Those slots are the jewel in NWAs crown. With the 787 and its reduced capasity, I think we'll see flights that depart the US and overfly the NRT hub and arrive in important Asia destinations. ICN, PEK, SHA, HKG, MNL etc... As PSU said, these nonstop flights will come at a premium and will be more expensive, capturing the higher yielding market (like MSP-HNL nonstop).

Perhaps we'll even see more service to Japan from the hubs and gateways. With that said, what will that do to the FUGU operation (internal label for the NRT hub)? I think it means a change of gague on flights that are overflight markets as well. The high density hub-NRT flights on the 744 will remain, but once interport the capasity will be reduced.

I still see a 350 seat a/c being the more logical replacement for the 744s. With the new overflying, the age of the 744s and the fact that they just won't need as much capasity to NRT, the 773 or equivalent would be perfect. These are exciting times and we'll learn alot about what NWA has in store for the future, probably late this year and throughout 2008 leading up to the launch.


AZJ
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 15215
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Wed Sep 26, 2007 11:31 pm

Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 7):
Those slots are the jewel in NWAs crown

Yeah but I don't think it's a very profitable jewel and they can't sell it.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
azjubilee
Posts: 3376
Joined: Sat Apr 29, 2000 5:26 am

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Wed Sep 26, 2007 11:46 pm

Wait... you're saying NWA's NRT hub is not profitable?






AZJ
 
bobnwa
Posts: 4460
Joined: Fri Dec 22, 2000 12:10 am

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Wed Sep 26, 2007 11:50 pm

Quoting Centrair (Thread starter):
We all know that many of you don't like it that NW doesn't use their current route authority. (They only have DTW-PEK...nothing else...all other China access is 5th freedom).

NWA does not fly DTW-PEK, but they did at one time. It uses its PEK authority via NRT. It can't do both as it has only one authority to PEK.
 
MaverickM11
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Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 12:10 am

Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 9):
Wait... you're saying NWA's NRT hub is not profitable?

I obviously don't know for sure, but I don't think it's as profitable as everyone imagines it to be. They face superior service and schedules in their regional Asian markets, they are overflown to most of their beyond NRT destinations, they have very little connectivity on the North American side with the exception of MSP and DTW, and even the Japanese carriers are having a tough time with their long haul traffic.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
WA707atMSP
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 12:25 am

Quoting DTW.SCE" class=quote target=_blank>PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 5):
As I've said before NW said that would restart JFK-NRT with the 787 at the time they suspended the route, but since then there has been no official reconfirmation of this promise.

I would be surprised if NW restarted JFK-NRT. The local market is already well served by AA, JL, and NH out of JFK, and CO out of EWR, with DL likely to enter the market eventually, too. And, few people are going to take NW JFK-NRT-ICN/TPE/HKG/PEK/PVG when they can fly nonstop from JFK and / or EWR to these cities on other airlines.

I think we're more likely to see NW resume DTW-ICN, and maybe even add DTW-HKG; that way, NW can flow their New York City-Asia passengers from all four New York area airports to Asia via DTW, much the same way United routed New York - Asia passengers through ORD and SFO after UA dropped JFK-NRT.
Seaholm Maples are #1!
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 12:55 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 8):
Yeah but I don't think it's a very profitable jewel and they can't sell it.



Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 11):
I obviously don't know for sure, but I don't think it's as profitable as everyone imagines it to be.

As seen during Ch. 11, NW shed a number of unprofitable routes. Since NW is earning a profit as a whole, there is no reason to suggest that NRT is dragging them down. Particularly when a number of airlines, including US legacies CO, DL, US would love to get their hands on additional NRT slots.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 11):
They face superior service and schedules in their regional Asian markets, they are overflown to most of their beyond NRT destinations, they have very little connectivity on the North American side with the exception of MSP and DTW, and even the Japanese carriers are having a tough time with their long haul traffic.

It give DTW, MSP, SEA, PDX, SFO, LAX, & HNL single-connection access to all of their intra-Asia destinations, something that no other carrier offers from DTW, MSP, & PDX. It is also very competitive from the others. Contrary to popular belief, the A330 offers an exceptionally nice product that is very much on par with the competition. NW has appropriately scaled capacity to be able to fly these routes properly. Hence why there are now 757's & A330's flying within Asia.
 
NW748i
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:03 am

Quoting Transpac787 (Reply 1):
Questions like that fuel the rumors that NW intends to convert all their 744's to 744F's, to replace all of the 742F's.

I still hold out hope that NW will find room for the 748i. However, with the looks of their Asian expansion plan, the 788 seems to be the way they're heading for the trans-Pacific routes.
Hail! to the victors valiant, Hail! to the conqu'ring heroes, Hail! Hail! to Michigan the leaders and best! Go Blue!
 
burnsie28
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:38 am

Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 12):
I would be surprised if NW restarted JFK-NRT.

That is/was the planned first route of the 787.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:46 am

Quoting DTW.SCE" class=quote target=_blank>PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 13):
there is no reason to suggest that NRT is dragging them down

I'm not saying it's unprofitable, I'm suggesting it's not as profitable as everyone might think it is, and I don't see much improvement on the horizon.

Quoting DTW.SCE" class=quote target=_blank>PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 13):
Particularly when a number of airlines, including US legacies CO, DL, US would love to get their hands on additional NRT slots

Yeah, for Transpacific routes, not regional tags

Quoting DTW.SCE" class=quote target=_blank>PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 13):
Contrary to popular belief, the A330 offers an exceptionally nice product that is very much on par with the competition.

It's not the cabin service so much as the schedule that's problematic. If you're in Tokyo, you need two extra hotel nights to fly NW to any of its regional destinations for business or leisure.

Quoting DTW.SCE" class=quote target=_blank>PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 13):
It give DTW, MSP, SEA, PDX, SFO, LAX, & HNL single-connection access to all of their intra-Asia destinations,

Which, again with few exceptions, you can get on many other carriers via hubs that offer more connecting opportunities.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
B2443
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:52 am

Quoting Azjubilee (Reply 7):
IMO, NWA will not let NRT die

Of course NW won't. If it wasn't for NRT, there's no way NW could fill a 332 to PEK, 744 to PVG or a 752 to CAN. NW is not a strong airline to China, that's the reality. They could have had larger airplanes on PEK/CAn but they don't. That clearly indicates the actual demands to China on NW. On the other hand, UA flies 5 744's currently to China. Even if NW flies today with 744's to PEK/PVG from DTW, I doubt it would be profittable. That's why they ordered 787's to do those routes.
 
WA707atMSP
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 2:32 am

Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 15):
Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 12):
I would be surprised if NW restarted JFK-NRT.

That is/was the planned first route of the 787.

Yes, but a lot has changed at NWA since the 787 order was placed.

When NW announced LGA-DFW earlier this year, they could have said in the press release "we're adding this route as part of our commitment to New York City, which will include resumption of JFK-Tokyo flights next year".

As PSU.DTW.SCE says, there haven't been any public comments about the route in a while. If Northwest was serious about resuming the route, I think they would be reminding the public about when they would restart it every time they issued a press release about service to New York City.
Seaholm Maples are #1!
 
gunsontheroof
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 5:04 am

Quoting Transpac787 (Reply 1):
Bringing back SEA-HKG with the 787 also seems to be a widespread and popular rumor.

I'd bet on seeing quite a few new/revived SEA-Asia routes once a substantial number of 787s are online. The plane is perfect for many of those markets. I could also see NH starting up NGO-SEA in the near future with their planes...
 
MaverickM11
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 7:09 am

Turns out the whole thing is unprofitable apparently:
US Carriers International Route Profitability (by Laxintl Sep 26 2007 in Civil Aviation)
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
Mikey711MN
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 7:25 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 20):
Turns out the whole thing is unprofitable apparently

Well, apparently it is for 2Q07, which would certainly explain why NW desires to overfly NRT then in the long run...

Right?

-Mike
I plan on living forever. So far, so good...
 
MaverickM11
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 9:50 am

Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 21):
Well, apparently it is for 2Q07, which would certainly explain why NW desires to overfly NRT then in the long run...

It's only one quarter, but relative to the other carriers it makes you wonder. But if it overflies NRT, what does it do with the NRT assets?
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
centrair
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:37 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 22):
It's only one quarter, but relative to the other carriers it makes you wonder. But if it overflies NRT, what does it do with the NRT assets?

NW will over fly NRT and use 5th freedoms as well. I think that is why they are getting 787s. 68 is a lot of planes. Though only 19 to start, in the end they could have tons more. NRT is just one city in Japan. It is a very profitable city. But NW also make a ton flying to MNL. It is hard to get seats on MNL-NGO-DTW or MNL-NRT-MSP.

When you look at the competition for carriers flying between NRT and other Asian destinations, it is limited to JL. NH and the other country's carrier. NW comes into the mix and everything changes. NW has resized their fleet to meet a changing market and will keep changing to meet that market. They have been flying to Asia longer than any other carrier out there and have done a pretty darn good job at it. I think they know what they are doing. 60 years of flying the Pacific this year. 1947-2007.

If UA sold off their 5th freedom rights from Japan, you bet that another US carrier would snatch them up faster than you can say WAIT...BUT! NW's inter-Asia flights go out full in all sections and in the hold. WBC is packed. When ever I fly DTW-NGO. WBC is full with pax going on to MNL. Waiting at NGO are a ton of other people.

A few years back NW introduced NRT-NGO-SPN flight. This connects two Japanese airports for the simple use of feeding passengers through the entire NW network in Asia and the US. This flight is PACKED. I set my seats for the 22nd of December and it is already filling up.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 16):
If you're in Tokyo, you need two extra hotel nights to fly NW to any of its regional destinations for business or leisure.

Really? Here is an example.

http://homepage.mac.com/justinwdart/.Pictures/NWA/AsiaA332scheduleIN.jpg
http://homepage.mac.com/justinwdart/.Pictures/NWA/AsiaA332scheduleOUT.jpg

You can connect to any of NW's NRT departure flights either going to SPN or GUM or to mainland Asia from any US arriving flight. You can also connect to NW' NRT departure flights going to the US from SPN or GUM or from Mainland Asia.

The only places where things don't line up right now are at KIX. You can't fly HNL-KIX-TPE. You miss the plane by 30 minutes. But you can fly MNL-SPN via NGO! Arrive at NGO at 11:45 and depart for SPN at 21:10. (The departure time is set to line up with DTW arriving passengers.)
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
chase
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:44 am

I'm kind of hoping that eventually (not with the first or second aircraft they get, but later) the 787 will enable NW to do IND-AMS.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 10:56 am

Quoting Centrair (Reply 23):
It is a very profitable city

How do you know?

Quoting Centrair (Reply 23):
NW's inter-Asia flights go out full in all sections and in the hold. WBC is packed. When ever I fly DTW-NGO. WBC is full with pax going on to MNL

I'm hearing a lot of anecdotal evidence ala "it's full so it must be profitable"...

Quoting Centrair (Reply 23):
Really? Here is an example.

If you're based in Japan, and you have a meeting in BKK, you have to spend two extra nights in BKK because you arrive in BKK at 2355 and depart at 0600. Obviously those flights are timed for tpac connections, but I can't imagine they're going to get any significant high yield local traffic.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
centrair
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RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 12:25 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 25):
How do you know?

One of the wealthiest in the world. Home to many Corporations. Japan...2nd richest nation in the world. If it weren't profitable, why would people sell their souls for NRT slots? It is the same thing for LHR.

In 2005 Tokyo ranked #1 for Cities with the highest GDP.

Ranking of GDP in US$bn
1 Tokyo Japan US$1191
2 New York USA US$1133
3 Los Angeles USA US$639
4 Chicago USA US$460
5 Paris France US$460
6 London UK US$452
7 Osaka/Kobe Japan US$341
8 Mexico City Mexico US$315
9 Philadelphia USA US$312
10 Washington DC USA US$299

By 2020 it is estimated that Tokyo will still be #1 with an estimated GDP of US$1602 (US$bn). They don't just make that money in Japan.

If NAA opened HND to long-haul international flights, it would be crowded by tomorrow.

Airlines are already lining up, wining and dining the NAA big wigs in hopes of gaining 1st time slots or additional slots when NAA opens the new runway in 2009. EK and QR are at the top of that list and probably want more than one slot and they are followed by US, AM (additional slots) and probably a bunch of other carriers. Not to mention that NH and JL will also be trying to secure new slots for new long haul and domestic connecting service.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 25):
If you're based in Japan, and you have a meeting in BKK, you have to spend two extra nights in BKK because you arrive in BKK at 2355 and depart at 0600. Obviously those flights are timed for tpac connections, but I can't imagine they're going to get any significant high yield local traffic.

Okay let's say I have a business meeting in BKK and I am in Japan. I take the earliest flight (SQ). I arrive at BKK at 14:00 local time; go through customs and get into the city by 15:00 if lucky. So when is my meeting? 16:00? NO. By that time people are already getting ready to leave work. Someone traveling from a far away place is not going to fly in do a rush meeting and fly out. It isn't the ASIAN WAY. You have to stick around for the dining, the discussions of personal nature and the showing off. I teach this stuff as part of my job. It is amazing how little western business people think they can just fly in do a meeting and fly out. If you want to be successful in business you are going to have make time to get to know the other person not only in a business way but personally. It is the ASIAN WAY.

There are only 12 non-stop flights from BKK to NRT daily.
Seven flights leave between 22:00 and 2:00.
The rest are between 6:00 (NW is the earliest) and 11:00. There are no afternoon flights between BKK and NRT as they would arrive when NRT is closed. Only KIX and NGO can handle 24hr ops in Japan.
Let's look closer at NRT-BKK
NW 1 daily 19:05-23:59
UA 1 daily 18:30-23:10
SQ 1 daily 9:25-14:00
AI 1 daily 12:00-16:10
NH 2 daily 10:50-15:25 18:10-22:50
TG 3 daily 10:00-14:30 11:00-15:30 16:55-21:55
JL 3 daily 10:30-15:05 16:15-20:50 19:40-12:15

Now let's look at BKK-NRT
NW 1 daily 6:00-14:30
UA 1 daily 6:50-15:00
SQ 1 daily 23:00-7:20
AI 1 daily 00:15-8:00
NH 2 daily 8:15-16:20 23:55-8:05
TG 3 daily 7:35-15:45 22:10-6:20 23:10-7:30
JL 3 daily 8:10-16:15 22:25-6:30 23:25-7:30

If I had a choice for doing business in BKK, I would take the afteroon flight. I could work in the morning for a few hours. Make sure everything is set. Then I would take an afternoon/evening flight to BKK. I would arrive late at night. I would have slept on the plane and then I sleep in a bed. I wake up around 7:30 or so and prepare for the day. I can have my meeting before or after lunch and leave time for dining, personal conversations, and other aspects required. Then I could take an evening flight back to Japan. I would arrive back in Japan the next morning having slept on the plane. I could take the morning off and then go check in at the office in the afternoon.

No matter what I would need 1 night min and 2 nights max for whatever I choose. But most likely even if I took SQ's flight, the first night would be wining and dining, the next day meeting and then leave in the evening. Minimum of 1 night.

I bet that if NW had the choice, they would fly A320s around Japan serving many markets with frequency or sere those farther markets with frequency. But sadly 5th freedom rights limit this as the flight has to originate on US soil.

So what will we see from NW?
Combinations of overfly and through Japan (not just NRT) using smaller aircraft combinded with frequency.
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:05 pm

Quoting Centrair (Reply 26):
I bet that if NW had the choice, they would fly A320s around Japan serving many markets with frequency or sere those farther markets with frequency. But sadly 5th freedom rights limit this as the flight has to originate on US soil.

Flying within Japan is not 5th freedom, its 6th. To fly to Japanese cities, the flight must originate outside of Japan, and if it continues within Japan no rights exist to pick up new pax.

NW has flown around Asia using their 5th freedom rights using A320s in the past, and of course the 757 fleet. 5th freedoms don't require the flight to originate on US soil.

NS
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 15215
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:43 pm

Quoting Centrair (Reply 26):
One of the wealthiest in the world. Home to many Corporations. Japan...2nd richest nation in the world. If it weren't profitable, why would people sell their souls for NRT slots?

According to the other thread they posted a loss on their Pacific routes in 2Q07, and they do not fly a single route over Japan. That means Japan is not profitable for NW, regardless of Japan's GDP.

Quoting Centrair (Reply 26):
No matter what I would need 1 night min

That's one less than NW. Plus JL and NH offer superior schedules and more options.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
centrair
Posts: 2845
Joined: Thu Jan 13, 2005 3:44 pm

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:13 pm

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 27):

In the heat of typing I missed a few words. I guess I meant to say that NW would be flying A320s from all over Japan to other places in Asia and with added frequency to current destinations. There are limits to what they can do even as an "incumbent" carrier.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 28):
According to the other thread they posted a loss on their Pacific routes in 2Q07, and they do not fly a single route over Japan. That means Japan is not profitable for NW, regardless of Japan's GDP.

A -2.7% for a quarter. Woop dee dooo. It proves absolutely NOTHING. If it were a loss over a year and in the double digits than I would agree.

NWA 2006 all year for Pacific
Pax revenue $504 (millions) (2nd most profitable after domestic)
Pax revenue 9.4%
ASMs (capacity) 4.4%
RPMs (traffic) 3.1%
Pax loads (1.0)pts
Yield 6.0%
RASM 4.7%

NWA 2007 1st quarter for Pacific
Pax revenue $515 (millions) (2nd most profitable after domestic)
Increase/decrease from 1st quarter 2006
Pax revenue 12.0%
ASMs (capacity) 6.7%
RPMs (traffic) 2.8%
Pax loads (3.2)pts
Yield 8.8%
RASM 4.9%

Now that Q2 has come out you are saying that NW is not profitable into Asia (which includes Japan)

Yep things are grim for the old Red Tail in the Pacific. Only a few numbers are down and they are down by only 2 or 3 pts. I guess they should close up shop.

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 28):
That's one less than NW. Plus JL and NH offer superior schedules and more options.

You just don't like NWA. Why don't you just say it? Nothing will satisfy you. You don't see anything but that -2.7% and think that NW's NRT hub is a loss. Do you see the big picture?
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 15215
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Thu Sep 27, 2007 11:21 pm

Quoting Centrair (Reply 29):
Pax revenue $504 (millions) (2nd most profitable after domestic)

2nd most profitable after domestic? That's the measuring stick you're using? And you're using revenue and percentage change to convey profitability?

Quoting Centrair (Reply 29):
A -2.7% for a quarter. Woop dee dooo.

Everyone else did fine. You don't find it at all weird that the second biggest American Tpac carrier posted a loss in its supposed strong region?

Quoting Centrair (Reply 29):
You just don't like NWA. Why don't you just say it? Nothing will satisfy you

You are being ridiculous.

Quoting Centrair (Reply 29):
You don't see anything but that -2.7% and think that NW's NRT hub is a loss. Do you see the big picture?

They did fantastic across the Atlantic. They made a loss on their Pacific network which is heavily based on Japan. AA and DL weren't super strong either, and they are also very Japan-centric.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
burnsie28
Posts: 5026
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2004 1:49 am

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Fri Sep 28, 2007 12:12 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 30):
Everyone else did fine. You don't find it at all weird that the second biggest American Tpac carrier posted a loss in its supposed strong region?

2nd biggest, are you sure about that?
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 15215
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:35 am

Quoting Burnsie28 (Reply 31):
2nd biggest, are you sure about that?

Yep, UA is much bigger especially in terms of ASMs.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Fri Sep 28, 2007 4:55 am

Quoting Centrair (Reply 29):
You don't see anything but that -2.7% and think that NW's NRT hub is a loss

I like NW just fine, and I see -2.7% profit on the entire Pacific network, which is NRT, being a loss.

NS
 
YHZ
Posts: 22
Joined: Mon Aug 13, 2007 10:37 am

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Fri Sep 28, 2007 5:33 am

NW will employ the 787 on routes that they cannot or won't serve now, DTW ICN comes to mind and of course JFK NRT(doesn't matter what competition they may face). This should be by no means news to anyone. There are some routes that simply will continue to be routed through NRT or KIX or NGO. Like it or not, enough pax will pay to fly NW (whether it is because they offer a cheaper fare or because of some sort of loyalty (which doesn't really exists too much anymore). Let's not get into the feasibility of maintaining NRT as a hub. I am fairly certain no one on this forum works in yield management. And to that end, I think NW was fairly forward thinking when SARS hit. They initially utilized A320 a/c on several routes to maintain their presence for their customers while minimizing the financial hit others were taking (UA continued to fly 777 a/c on routes that were hit hard when NW threw in their A320). Once the impact had lessened, NW was then able to move 757 a/c on these routes. Now the China routes are back up to A330 and 744. Say what you want, but NW always seems to do the right thing in Asia. With everyone jumping into the China market, NW and UA will lose some of their base, but don't think they will fly a/c half empty. Flights are always full (I know - that doesn't necessarily mean they had high yields) and it will only take a little while before you see some of the newcomers pull back to focus on better markets for them. DL ran fast and furious out of Asia (of course they were hitting their peak on expansion right when the Asian Economic crisis hit) and are barely a presence now. With the development of such a unique a/c (787) airlines will now be able to hit markets they really couldn't justify before and won't have to hit an intermediate stop like Japan. Change is inevitable, but no one here can say with any authority what the aviation picture will look like in 5 or 10 years.
 
flysherwood
Posts: 881
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:58 am

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Fri Sep 28, 2007 6:46 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 16):
It's not the cabin service so much as the schedule that's problematic. If you're in Tokyo, you need two extra hotel nights to fly NW to any of its regional destinations for business or leisure.

HUH?!?!? Why do you need two extra hotel nights if you are in Tokyo? I have been in Tokyo many times and needed to go to MNL or HKG on short notice and didn't need an extra hotel night, much less two.

NRT is not only a profitable hub for NWA it is their MOST profitable hub. They went to great pains in order to make sure that NRT was not affected in any way, shape or form during the Chapter 11 process.
 
Mikey711MN
Posts: 1229
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:19 am

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Fri Sep 28, 2007 6:51 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 35):
NRT is not only a profitable hub for NWA it is their MOST profitable hub. They went to great pains in order to make sure that NRT was not affected in any way, shape or form during the Chapter 11 process.

Not to be at all condescending, but you'll probably want to review that other thread, which suggests--at least--that NW's 2Q07 trans-Pacific operations were not profitable (~1.2% in the red).

The connection, therefore, that many are validly making is that NRT, as the hub for such traffic, ergo is subsequently not a "profitable" hub. At least for the quarter.

Sans further investigation into the accounting details, no one really seems certain as to why that is.

-Mike
I plan on living forever. So far, so good...
 
flysherwood
Posts: 881
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:58 am

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Fri Sep 28, 2007 7:12 am

Quoting Mikey711MN (Reply 36):
Not to be at all condescending, but you'll probably want to review that other thread, which suggests--at least--that NW's 2Q07 trans-Pacific operations were not profitable (~1.2% in the red).

We all might want to take into account that one bad quarter doesn't make NRT an unprofitable hub overall. There could have been a lot of one time charges that NWA had to take as they exited Chapter 11 etc...

However, I will say that I am surprised by that result as NWA, during Chapter 11 proceedings, used it's Pacific structure as the basis for continuing as an airline and not being liquidated. I am not sure if MaverickM11 has any idea just how convenient NWA is if you are traveling in and around Asia especially if the majority of your time is to be spent in Japan. I have found their pacific service to be superior to United and I have been traveling between the USA and Asia since I was a young kid.

Of course, a lot of my bias comes from the fact that I can hop on a plane at PDX at 1:30 p.m. and be in Tokyo (Ginza or Shinjuku) by 8:00 p.m. the next day. All the while enjoying a really nice flight on board an A332 and getting great service in World Business Class.  Wink

Before PDX-NRT came around, I either had to go to SEA which meant leaving PDX by 10:30 a.m. or going through SFO which meant leaving PDX at around 8:30 a.m.! NO THANKS  no 
 
flysherwood
Posts: 881
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:58 am

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Fri Sep 28, 2007 7:42 am

Quoting YHZ" class=quote target=_blank>YHZ (Reply 34):
YHZ From Canada, joined Aug 2007, 11 posts, RR: 0
Reply 34, posted Thu Sep 27 2007 13:33:53 your local time (2 hours 2 minutes 41 secs ago) and read 133 times:

Very well put. That was an excellent post!  Smile
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 15215
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:18 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 35):
HUH?!?!? Why do you need two extra hotel nights if you are in Tokyo? I have been in Tokyo many times and needed to go to MNL or HKG on short notice and didn't need an extra hotel night, much less two.

That's physically impossible unless you spent all of your time in MNL or HKG between the hours of midnight and 5am.

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 37):
. I am not sure if MaverickM11 has any idea just how convenient NWA is if you are traveling in and around Asia especially if the majority of your time is to be spent in Japan

Their regional schedule is timed to connect to Transpacific flights, not timed for Tokyo originating passengers.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
centrair
Posts: 2845
Joined: Thu Jan 13, 2005 3:44 pm

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Fri Sep 28, 2007 6:33 pm

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 39):
not timed for Tokyo originating passengers.

So I can't take the flight because it not timed for me and others in Japan? Please clarify this statement.
Yes...I am not a KIX fan. Let's Japanese Aviation!
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 6090
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Fri Sep 28, 2007 9:39 pm

Quoting Centrair (Reply 40):
So I can't take the flight because it not timed for me and others in Japan? Please clarify this statement.

Due to the nature of NW's NRT hub, the intra-Asia flights (with the exception of SPN/GUM beach markets) are not necessarily optimally timed for Japan-based O&D. That however is dependent on the time that someone needs to travel. The intra-Asia flights depart NRT ~7pm local time, after all of the arrivals from the US. The aircraft RON at the Asia outstations, and then fly back to NRT in the morning, generally arriving back into NRT in the early afternoon - prior to the departures back to the US.

While this schedule doesn't suit all of the locally based traffic it does suit some people, but true is it designed primarily to feed the flights to/from the US.
 
flysherwood
Posts: 881
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 2:58 am

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:05 am

Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 39):
That's physically impossible unless you spent all of your time in MNL or HKG between the hours of midnight and 5am

I guess I have no idea what you meant with your original premise. I went to HKG and MNL did my business in two days. There were no extra penalty days. But now that I know what you are getting at... Let's say there is a flight to MNL that left NRT at 7:00 a.m. and returned from MNL at 7:00 p.m. You would arrive in Manila at around 11:45 a.m. After going through Immigration (non-Filipino passport) and customs, you exit the building at say 1:00 p.m. (very fast). You catch a cab to go to Makati which will get you to (say the Manila Peninsula) at 2:00 p.m. (very fast). You meet for 2 hours and head back to the airport for your return and have to be back two hours prior. IT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. It will take you at least 2 hours to get from the Peninsula to the airport at that time of the day and it is all of 12 miles between the those two locations. I don't care what time you fly to MNL or HKG you will be spending at least one night there.

What is your point about NWA costing you an extra night?  Yeah sure
 
MaverickM11
Posts: 15215
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2000 1:59 pm

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:31 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 42):
What is your point about NWA costing you an extra night?

It's an extra cost that business travelers do not want to spend, mostly in terms of time rather than the money. See also reply #41.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
B2443
Posts: 586
Joined: Sat Jul 03, 2004 2:28 am

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:37 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 42):
What is your point about NWA costing you an extra night?

Well, let's see how I have chosen UA/CO instead of NW in the past...

If I were to go to a city in China other than PEK/PVG/CAN (sya Xi'an) from the US, due to NW's late arrivals at these cities, I'd have to stay one night at PEK/PVG/CAN. Upon return to US, due to NW's early departure (around 8am), I'd have to arrive in PEK/PVG/CAN the night before. There goes my TWO nights at PEK/PVG/CAN.

NW's schedules in China are very O/D oriented and impossible to allow same day connection. But if you happen to do business in PEK/PVG/CAN, you won't have my problem I guess.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 6090
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

RE: NWA's DTW-PVG Route & 787 Routes

Sat Sep 29, 2007 2:11 am

For those people investing the time & money to travel to China from the United State primarily for business, an additional night needed due to scheduling requirements of long-haul travel is a wash.

Most people getting off of a 12-18+ hours of flying (not including everything associated with pre-departure times) from the United State are basically ready to head to the hotel and clean up / rest, even if they were in WBC. The additional night thing is a big deal when we are talking about domestic travel, but international long haul - since most passengers are going for several days, or even weeks, and additional day means very little. Yes, I know there are those super important types who do two-days trips to China, but that is a minority.

Again, you can't please everyone.

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