dl767captain
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DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:16 am

DL announced their China route, and many new european routes and other international routes. But right now they have very few 777s, so will we see a order from DL soon?
Possibilities:
787-8/9
787-3 Maybe later to replace 767s
772s, would be a good place holder until the 787s can start arriving
773- i think the 772 is enough for now but do they need more capacity on routes?

It seems like a DL order is due sometime soon what do you think?
 
worldtraveler
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:20 am

there is no reason to think DL will order more aircraft in the near future. All of this growth can be done with aircraft already in the pipeline for their international operation... and there are more in the pipeline to be converted as well as new deliveries.

The whole reason DL can make these big moves is because they come at relatively low cost - and actually have benefits to their dometic system, which is already wildly profitable.
 
sxf24
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:29 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 1):
actually have benefits to their dometic system, which is already wildly profitable.

No its not.
 
worldtraveler
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:31 am

it most certainly is and has been. go to Aviation Daily today.... has DOT data that shows it.
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:31 am

Here is what I think:

Likely ordered in the near future: 787-8, more 777-200LRs

Likely ordered in the long-term future: 787-9, 737RS

Possibly ordered: 787-3, 777-300ER, Embraer 190/195 (to fill in the gap between the CRJ-900 and 737-700)
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srbmod
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:39 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 1):

The whole reason DL can make these big moves is because they come at relatively low cost - and actually have benefits to their dometic system, which is already wildly profitable.

If DL's domestic network is so profitable, why has the overwhelming majority of new service DL has started in the last few years been international service?

With few exceptions, DL has virtually no competition internationally (The flights of Skyteam partners compliment rather than compete DL's own service on those routes and vice versa.) out of ATL (And absolutely none out of CVG), which where the bulk of the international expansion has taken place. SLC is finally getting Transatlantic service; DL is expanding international service out of JFK as well.
 
worldtraveler
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:45 am

Quoting Srbmod (Reply 5):
If DL's domestic network is so profitable, why has the overwhelming majority of new service DL has started in the last few years been international service?

because DL is increasing its profitability by reducing capacity, thus reducing the number of discount seats they have to sell. Every other network carrier has pursued the same strategy of reducing domestic capacity since 9/11 except CO, whose domestic system is NOT profitable.

The difference is that DL is able to pull 767s off of its domestic system and redeploy them internationally; other carriers cannot do that near to the degree DL has.

Reducing capacity often results in improved revenue performance.

Quoting Srbmod (Reply 5):
With few exceptions, DL has virtually no competition internationally

that is not at all true. DL's western European network is highly competitive. Its ATL to Europe flights largely carry connections which could easily flow over other hubs in either the US or Europe.

DL serves no unique cities in Latin America that I know of, thus they are all competitive.

The whole reason for them to expand to Africa and the Middle East, however, is because these are markets which don't have a lot of competition (none by US carriers) and thus DL has a very good chance of getting a high percentage of the passengers between the US and those countries.
 
deltal1011man
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:49 am

Quoting 1337Delta764 (Reply 4):
times:


Here is what I think:

Likely ordered in the near future: 787-8, more 777-200LRs

Likely ordered in the long-term future: 787-9, 737RS

Possibly ordered: 787-3, 777-300ER, Embraer 190/195 (to fill in the gap between the CRJ-900 and 737-700)

ok close.......here is what i guess a 125 787 order(most options though)by the end of this year and most 787 coming after 2015 now DL has 104 767s right now(24 763s 59 763ERs and 21 764s) so that means 21 new frames (think Asia from LAX hint hint) along with some more T7s(ATL,LAX,JFK-Asia and DL will look for a 100-seat airplane. As for the 77Ws of there is a order it will be for only a few(mostly for Asia and maybe JFK,ATL-LHR,CDG type routes)
BTW the 21 787s will be 787-8s which they will get around 2010(hmmm just right from more China flights hint LAX hint)
New airliners.net web site sucks.
 
HPAEAA
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:53 am

Quoting DL767captain (Thread starter):
It seems like a DL order is due sometime soon what do you think?

I'd place my money on waiting for this JFK operation to mature... wait for the routes to prove they can make a profit.. I bet some of the routes could be redeployed in time...

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 6):
The whole reason for them to expand to Africa and the Middle East, however, is because these are markets which don't have a lot of competition (none by US carriers) and thus DL has a very good chance of getting a high percentage of the passengers between the US and those countries.

but can they do it profitably? is there really that much traffic that can afford a premium fare in some of those countries?

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 6):
because DL is increasing its profitability by reducing capacity, thus reducing the number of discount seats they have to sell. Every other network carrier has pursued the same strategy of reducing domestic capacity since 9/11 except CO, whose domestic system is NOT profitable.

The difference is that DL is able to pull 767s off of its domestic system and redeploy them internationally; other carriers cannot do that near to the degree DL has.

Yeah, But FL's added quite a few planes that add to that capacity, CO's domestic network isn't the only one that's not profitable, it's not like each carrier lives in a vacuum with their respective hubs.

[Edited 2007-09-27 02:03:04]
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worldtraveler
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 9:18 am

Quoting HPAEAA (Reply 8):
but can they do it profitably? is there really that much traffic that can afford a premium fare in some of those countries?

given the US is the largest economy in the world and has been built on immigration, it is pretty reasonable to think that DL can fill a 767 (pretty small plane) to a number of countries around the world that don't have US carrier service. Most of these cities have European carriers flying there with multiple flights on airplanes that are much larger.

Quoting HPAEAA (Reply 8):
Yeah, But FL's added quite a few planes that add to that capacity,

Which is precisely why the LFCs are headed for the same accident the network carriers are recovering from. FL, B6, and WN have hundreds of airplanes on order and are deploying them right where the network carriers pulled them from. To think the LFCs will be successful there over the long term is foolish. The economy will slow down and all those leisure markets will fall apart - just like they did before.

Quoting HPAEAA (Reply 8):
CO's domestic network isn't the only one that's not profitable

actually, among network carriers in the 2nd quarter, CO is the only unprofitable domestic network carrier. CO has been able to offset its domestic performance because of strong int'l performance.
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 11:22 am

If DL announces any more 777 orders, it will most likely be without any fanfare, and we'll just merely find out in filings with the Securities & Exchange Committee, just as well did the 3 additional 772LRs recently noted. If DL does order any 773ERs, it will most likely come this way as well. Amending their 777 order with Boeing further to include 2-4 of these for future China use wouldn't surprise many people, and they'll find quickly they do need the capacity on these routes once they get started. While they'll have a couple of 772LRs joining the fleet before 30 March when ATL-PVG starts, this route is doable in one of their 8 existing 772ERs.
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calpsafltskeds
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 12:08 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 9):

actually, among network carriers in the 2nd quarter, CO is the only unprofitable domestic network carrier. CO has been able to offset its domestic performance because of strong int'l performance.

Here we go again. Where's the beef?
Or will we be told if we're smart, we can find it?

I guess CO with a mainline domestic 85.9% load factor is a real dog. According to CO's second quarter results, their Total RASM was 11.85 cents and their cost was 10.87 cents. That's a 9.5% profit overall. So, how does a 85.9% domestic LF lose money? It would take something like a 20% profit internationally at 81% LF to make the domestic break even. So, does the International make 25% profit????

How about some stats on the wildly profitable DL domestic operation?
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sxf24
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 12:41 pm

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 3):
it most certainly is and has been. go to Aviation Daily today.... has DOT data that shows it.

DL's domestic RASM is in the middle of the pack. Overall, its profitable but no where close to being wildly so.
 
dl767captain
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 12:54 pm

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 10):
f DL does order any 773ERs, it will most likely come this way as well

if they order the 773 then it will be a pretty big deal, they would be the first US airline to order the plane, much like they were the first to order the 772LR
 
DLOnur
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:08 pm

I doubt that we are going to see a major DL new A/C order this year or maybe even next year.

While they may have backdoor conversations with Boeing regarding an A/C order, Anderson and the BOD has made it pretty clear that what DL is trying to do is pay back the creditors we owe a crap load of money to.....that is going to take some time and I doubt we will see anything more than what is already on order, what is already in the pipeline.

DL has a bunch of options on 764's and I wouldn't be surprised if they convert these orders to 772LR's or even maybe 773's (though I don't see the latter happening, while conversions to 772LR's make more sense).

DL is way more interested right now in balancing its balance sheets, making a return to investors and creditors, and keeping people (customers and employees) as happy as they can at this point without expending too much actual capital. A lot of this can be done "smoke and mirrors" style without expending too much capital.

Notice that all of the expansion are routes that DL has either had in the past or can easily operate with the available A/C it currently has. None of these routes require much from the A/C end of things--they do require significant marketing and startup costs regarding the individual stations, but not much in terms of A/C, pilots or in-flight.

I just don't see the logic of a large plane order anytime soon...I see a DL merger as being more probable than a big A/C order.

-o-
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caminito
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 1:16 pm

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 10):
If DL announces any more 777 orders, it will most likely be without any fanfare, and we'll just merely find out in filings with the Securities & Exchange Committee, just as well did the 3 additional 772LRs recently noted

1) In the Boeing Order book, there is only one (1) in June. What happens with the 3 you mention. Is this order confirmed but only not finalized?
2) Above 3 include the one already booked?
3) With these 3 or 4 frames, they cannot cover all the new routes. Furthermore, they do not need the extra-long-range 200LR for the majority of the new routes. And what the will use until these and subsequently ordered twin-aisles are delivered?

Can somebody clarify all this?

Thanks
Caminito
 
laca773
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 3:20 pm

Domestically, I was thinking they might purchase some 739ERWs to replace some of the oldest domestic 752s and add some frequency to Mexico, Central America and northern South America.

With some of these new long haul routes to the middle east, does anyone see DL ordering any more 77W or 77Ls? I could see them using the 77Ls for the middle east flights to compete with the likes of Emirates and Eithad.

It will only be a matter of time before the 78Xs are ordered. At the same time, I was thinking they may convert some of the 764 options into orders since they can receive those well ahead of any 78Xs arriving.

Thoughts?

LACA773

p.s. When will the 73GWs be arriving? Flying too?
 
XFSUgimpLB41X
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 4:39 pm

787 orders are on the back burner... the China MD-90's trading for CRJs are on the bubble as well. There is plenty of expansion coming in over the next while.
Chicks dig winglets.
 
Reggaebird
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 4:48 pm

OK, don't call me crazy but......could DL be a potential customer for the Boeing 747-8i? Before you die laughing, think about it. This plane could be a natural for the new China service, the limited LHR slots that DL is acquiring and for some of the dual-destination African services. I bet that Boeing would give them a great price and it would definitely boost their image as a top-tier carrier on the world stage.

Reggaebird
 
panamair
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 5:17 pm

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 11):
So, how does a 85.9% domestic LF lose money? It would take something like a 20% profit internationally at 81% LF to make the domestic break even. So, does the International make 25% profit????

I don't know...ask CO. The stats that Laxintl posted on the other thread showed that CO's domestic operating margin was -3.9%....

Quoting CALPSAFltSkeds (Reply 11):
How about some stats on the wildly profitable DL domestic operation?

Even if people don't want to wade through the data, common sense and simple math will indicate as such:

DL's overall operating margin Q2 2007: 9.8% (Profit)
Atlantic: 3.2%
Latin America: -1.3%
Pacific: 7.3%

How does one get to an overall 9.8% operating margin overall when all of your international numbers are below your overall average?
 
DAL767400ER
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 6:30 pm

Quoting Caminito (Reply 15):
1) In the Boeing Order book, there is only one (1) in June. What happens with the 3 you mention. Is this order confirmed but only not finalized?
2) Above 3 include the one already booked?

DL placed the order for the single additional 77L in June. Early last week, they revealed (in SEC filings?) that the BOD had given approval for a further order for 2 more 77Ls, which has not yet been booked on Boeing's order page.

Quoting Reggaebird (Reply 18):
OK, don't call me crazy but......could DL be a potential customer for the Boeing 747-8i?

Not gonna happen. If DL wants a larger plane than the 77L, they'll get the 77W to keep it in the family. Adding the 748I would add a whole new plane family, and given that such a fleet would be pretty small, it would not be worth the expense. Besides, it is doubtful that DL would even have the pax demand to fill a 748 profitably. ATL-PVG will take some time grow, ditto for the African routes, and to LHR it's all about the frequency. The 748 really doesn't fit in there.
 
panamair
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 6:57 pm

Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 20):
Early last week, they revealed (in SEC filings?) that the BOD had given approval for a further order for 2 more 77Ls, which has not yet been booked on Boeing's order page.

Actually, wouldn't the two additional 77Ls revealed in the SEC filing ("during the 3rd quarter") be the 2 UFO 777s reported about a month ago (I believe they were the #998 and #999 777s).?
 
DAL767400ER
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 7:07 pm

Quoting Panamair (Reply 21):
Actually, wouldn't the two additional 77Ls revealed in the SEC filing ("during the 3rd quarter") be the 2 UFO 777s reported about a month ago (I believe they were the #998 and #999 777s).?

If you mean the order placed August 15th, that is shown on Boeing's order page as a 77W order.
 
okie73
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Thu Sep 27, 2007 8:38 pm

Quoting DLOnur (Reply 14):
Anderson and the BOD has made it pretty clear that what DL is trying to do is pay back the creditors we owe a crap load of money to.....

The creditors have already been repaid. The BK case is over and the creditors got stock as payment for their debts. Now, it may be accurate to say that Anderson is going to be very careful in making decisions so that Delta does not do anything to lower the value of their stock, but its not like they will be making payment to the creditors. The creditors will make more money as Delta stock rises in value.

Quoting DLOnur (Reply 14):
DL is way more interested right now in balancing its balance sheets, making a return to investors and creditors, and keeping people (customers and employees) as happy as they can at this point without expending too much actual capital.

This is an accurate statement. Anderson and Bastion have been on record saying they will be very protective of the balance sheet and both are hesitant to take on debt.

Quoting DLOnur (Reply 14):
I see a DL merger as being more probable than a big A/C order.

This goes back to my earlier statement about how the creditors will make more money. A merger may well be the best way to drive up Delta stock in the short term......and thus allow the creditors the best chance to recoup their money.
 
srbmod
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Fri Sep 28, 2007 3:17 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 6):
Quoting Srbmod (Reply 5):
With few exceptions, DL has virtually no competition internationally

that is not at all true. DL's western European network is highly competitive. Its ATL to Europe flights largely carry connections which could easily flow over other hubs in either the US or Europe.

DL serves no unique cities in Latin America that I know of, thus they are all competitive.

The whole reason for them to expand to Africa and the Middle East, however, is because these are markets which don't have a lot of competition (none by US carriers) and thus DL has a very good chance of getting a high percentage of the passengers between the US and those countries.

If you're going to quote me, at least quote the entire sentence:

Quoting Srbmod (Reply 5):
With few exceptions, DL has virtually no competition internationally (The flights of Skyteam partners compliment rather than compete DL's own service on those routes and vice versa.) out of ATL (And absolutely none out of CVG), which where the bulk of the international expansion has taken place.




DL has a monopoly out of ATL to Central and South America. The last South American airline to serve ATL was LAPA, and DL was codesharing on their flight. Varig pulled back in the 1990s.

And I was not mentioning connections within Europe either.
 
deltal1011man
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Fri Sep 28, 2007 3:56 am

Quoting LACA773 (Reply 16):
Domestically, I was thinking they might purchase some 739ERWs to replace some of the oldest domestic 752s and add some frequency to Mexico, Central America and northern South America.

will not happen DL will wait to order the 737RS(the 75s are not that old they will last 5 -10 more years)

Quoting LACA773 (Reply 16):
p.s. When will the 73GWs be arriving? Flying too?

i think they starting getting them next year and its like 4 in 08 3 in 09 and 3 in 10
New airliners.net web site sucks.
 
dl767captain
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Fri Sep 28, 2007 5:33 am

Quoting Reggaebird (Reply 18):

I suggested that once and was almost killed! It would make sense to me, but coupd be a little too big, maybe the 748 before it was stretched and maybe boeing would make some for them and definately give thwm a good deal, for a while we will probably see 777s until tuey get a lot of demand butwith their expansion into slot restricted places ot would be great.
the 739 could come along to replace the older 757s but in a small number like 20 or 25 until the 737rs comes along, dl could even be the launch customer for the 737rs
 
wingletsman
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Fri Sep 28, 2007 6:07 am

but they already have E-170's for Freedom, so therefore they would not need the order for E-190/195's.
but would be nice!!
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Fri Sep 28, 2007 6:22 am

Quoting Wingletsman (Reply 27):
but they already have E-170's for Freedom, so therefore they would not need the order for E-190/195's.
but would be nice!!

Delta has stated that any aircraft with more than 76 seats would be operated as mainline. That includes the E190/195. Delta is somewhat cheating with the CRJ-900s, which would normally seat 86 passengers in a one-class config, by operating them as a two-class aircraft. The E190 is a larger aircraft than the CRJ-900, and would have to be operated as mainline even in a two-class configuration.

There is also the CRJ-1000 as an option, but the CRJ-1000 is a niche aircraft and is not expected to be a huge seller. I would be surprised if Delta were actually to order CRJ-1000s.
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skibum9
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Fri Sep 28, 2007 6:29 am

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 26):
I suggested that once and was almost killed! It would make sense to me, but coupd be a little too big, maybe the 748 before it was stretched and maybe boeing would make some for them and definately give thwm a good deal, for a while we will probably see 777s until tuey get a lot of demand butwith their expansion into slot restricted places ot would be great.
the 739 could come along to replace the older 757s but in a small number like 20 or 25 until the 737rs comes along, dl could even be the launch customer for the 737rs

A decision to add another type of airplane is not based solely on the size of the aircraft. There are other contributing factors that are considered. If DL were to acquire the 748, it would have to add all sorts of new programs, like training and maintenance, specifically designed for that aircraft. This in itself adds a significant cost and is main reason why the 748 is highly unlikely. It is much more cost effective to add more T7s or go with the 77W if they need the capacity.

As for the 739 as a 757 replacement....never happen. The 75s have a good number of years left in them, even the oldest ones. DL will wait for the 737RS to replace those, as well as the MD88 and then the existing 737 fleet. But this won't happen until well after it announces an order for and starts taking on 787s.
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modernArt
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Fri Sep 28, 2007 7:03 am

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 9):
FL, B6, and WN have hundreds of airplanes on order and are deploying them right where the network carriers pulled them from. To think the LFCs will be successful there over the long term is foolish.

Pure arrogance. And yet SWA has been profitable over the long term you just mentioned. Delta, cumulatively, has NEVER been profitable in its entire existence.

Quoting WorldTraveler (Reply 9):
The economy will slow down and all those leisure markets will fall apart - just like they did before.

If the economy slows, so goes Delta's wildly profitable domestic (and international) system. I know, I know you will tell us otherwise.
 
B777ER
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RE: DL Order Soon?

Fri Sep 28, 2007 7:23 am

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 10):
While they'll have a couple of 772LRs joining the fleet before 30 March when ATL-PVG starts, this route is doable in one of their 8 existing 772ERs.

DL will have two 77L's by the time ATL-PVG starts on 30Mar08. It is already known that the 77L's will go to the JFK-BOM route due to distance and being able to carry more belly cargo thus increasing the route profit. The two 777ER's on the JFK-BOM route now will be redeployed on the ATL-PVG route.