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BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Fri Sep 28, 2007 9:24 pm

Following on from the link below;

BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787

As the previous thread has now over 300 replies we ask that you take into consideration members with dial up connections and the speed that they can access the initial thread.

From Airbus

British Airways to buy 12 Airbus A380 aircraft for long haul fleet
27 September 2007

British Airways will buy 12 Airbus A380 aircraft as part of the airlines’ long term fleet modernisation. The announcement marks the first time British Airways has selected to introduce Airbus aircraft for the company’s long haul fleet. The decision vindicates Airbus’ product strategy. The A380 is a key part of the solution for sustainable growth and eco efficiency in air transportation.

The aircraft will be powered by Rolls-Royce engines.


http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre...09_27_british_airways_12_a380.html

From Boeing

Boeing Statement on British Airways Fleet Selection

SEATTLE, Sept. 27, 2007 -- The Boeing Company [NYSE: BA] is honored that British Airways has selected the 787 Dreamliner as a key element of its long-haul fleet renewal.

[snip]

"Boeing has been a supplier and partner to British Airways for more than 50 years. We are honored that British Airways has chosen to join the 787 family of operators," said Marlin Dailey, vice president of Sales for Europe, Russia and Central Asia, Boeing Commercial Airplanes.

Boeing looks forward to finalizing the contractual details of British Airways' selection.


http://www.boeing.com/commercial/news/2007/q3/070927b_nr.html

From Britsh Airways

Green light for aircraft orders

British Airways has today placed an order for 12 Airbus A380 and 24 Boeing 787 aircraft with options for a further seven Airbus A380s and 18 Boeing 787s. Both aircraft types will be powered by Rolls-Royce engines.

The new aircraft will replace 34 of the airline's longhaul fleet and will be delivered between 2010 and 2014. The order, including options, will give the airline the ability to grow its capacity by up to four per cent per year and the flexibility to tailor its future capacity growth in line with market conditions.


http://www.britishairways.com/travel/bapress/public/en_gb

Some relevent links to other Airliners.net discussions in relation to this order;

Can The 747-8 Be Successful?

BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009

BA A380 And JFK

Effect Of BA A 380 Order On Virgin

So as to not have too many threads some of those may be archived and redirected here and we ask that you continue the discssion in this thread. Thank you.
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Lumberton
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Fri Sep 28, 2007 9:33 pm

Since this was the last post on the old thread....

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 318):
Quoting Mariner (Reply 313):
I have no doubt that BA got a healthy discount - from both suppliers - and of course, it is possible that BA got launch customer rates.
But then it raises the question - what was Being offering on their deal? I have little doubt that Boeing would have given BA launch customer rates for the 7

Which begs the question, do both OEM's continue ad infinitum with the "launch customer rates"?
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Fri Sep 28, 2007 9:37 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 1):
Which begs the question, do both OEM's continue ad infinitum with the "launch customer rates"?

Are you suggesting that launch customer discounts are a myth?  wink 

As a spotty youth I worked for a greengrocer who sold two grades of apples. Grade A apples cost 20% more than the Grade Bs. Of course, out the back, they all came out of the same box!
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AirbusA6
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Fri Sep 28, 2007 9:56 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 2):
As a spotty youth I worked for a greengrocer who sold two grades of apples. Grade A apples cost 20% more than the Grade Bs. Of course, out the back, they all came out of the same box!

I'm sure any new purchaser of either the A380 ot 748i would get Grade B rates, whereas someone like BA would probably pay even less!
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moo
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:08 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 2):
Are you suggesting that launch customer discounts are a myth?

I would have thought that at this time, both aircraft are well and truly 'launched' at this moment in time  Smile

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 2):
As a spotty youth I worked for a greengrocer who sold two grades of apples. Grade A apples cost 20% more than the Grade Bs. Of course, out the back, they all came out of the same box!

Oooh, fraud Big grin How many decades back was this?
 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:13 pm

Quoting Moo (Reply 4):
How many decades back was this?

More than I would care to admit!  old 
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Fri Sep 28, 2007 10:25 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 1):
Which begs the question, do both OEM's continue ad infinitum with the "launch customer rates"?

Yes. Airlines talk with each other and industry analysts and those analysts post the data in public form.

However, where everyone keeps quiet on is the ancillaries - spares, training, EFBs, and such - that are part of each deal.

So when you see every 777 or every A380 go out the door at around 40% off list, that doesn't mean the final contract price is a straight 40% off. Those ancillaries have tremendous profit margins (hundreds of percent, most likely), so even cutting 40% off those still means each one is bringing in significant raw profit and those ancillaries can be scores - even hundreds - of millions, almost all of which is pure "cream".
 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Fri Sep 28, 2007 11:21 pm

I've just been thinking about the seating layout for the A380 in BA service. With BA flying a higher proportion of F & J seats than most airlines, might it be that the upper deck would be exclusively for F & J, with the lower for WT+ & WT.
This would allow the upper deck to be promoted as the "exclusive" area, and at airports with twin airbridges, allow F & J to board without having to go near the masses of WT. If this still didn't balance the load, they could always allow WT+ to enter the upper deck as well.
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 12:05 am

That might not be a bad idea, Bongodog1964. It would help set BA apart from other airlines and even at airports with a single ramp, you could block access for the main deck to Door 1L and unload First and Business first so they could get off first and have first crack at C&I.  thumbsup 
 
BestWestern
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 12:50 am

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 7):
without having to go near the masses of WT.

Those riffraff.....  Smile
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caminito
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 12:57 am

Quoting PanAm_DC10 (Thread starter):

I have a suggestion:

Often, when one of two related threads is frozen or deleted, to concentrate the discussion on the remaining one creates a difficulty because the posts which the poster wish to quote was deleted or is on the frozen thread. This is would at this moment be the case if " BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009" is frozen, at its content is factually mostly inseparable from this one.

It would be ideal if the content of the frozen or deleted thread (here only if it merits so) could be inserted in the remaining one.

I do not know if there is a way to do this easily, as the ordinal number of the Replies and consequently the cross-references would need to be adjusted.

Anyway, I would be grateful if you can look at this idea!

Thanks
 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:06 am

Quoting Caminito (Reply 10):
It would be ideal if the content of the frozen or deleted thread (here only if it merits so) could be inserted in the remaining one.

The main reason for locking long threads (like the Part 1 of this thread) is that they take too long to load for users who are dialing up (I know, how 1990s!), so the concept of loading that content in the Part 2 won't work.
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RIX
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 1:56 am

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 7):
With BA flying a higher proportion of F & J seats than most airlines, might it be that the upper deck would be exclusively for F & J

From my impression with what the proportion is, I'd rather expect the opposite deck allocation.
 
ikramerica
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 2:05 am

Quoting Moo (Reply 4):
I would have thought that at this time, both aircraft are well and truly 'launched' at this moment in time

They can't give the deepest discounts forever, or they would never make a profit. Airbus can't afford to sell A380s at launch prices forever, for example, or that break even number moves above 500. The 787 also has to make money for Boeing if they want to launch new programs or even derivatives of the 787 like the -10 or the 9LR.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 11):
so the concept of loading that content in the Part 2 won't work.

He just wants to be able to quote the content of the first into the second. But when it's locked, you can't click quote then copy it into the new thread. But you can just copy the text yourself, then write the code...  Wink
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ikramerica
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 2:08 am

Also, just to expand on the "if BA says it, it must be true" myth from the first thread.

BA said, over and over, they would not buy new aircraft until they moved to T5. They said they wouldn't announce future plans until moving to T5, because they want to work that out first.

So, are BA in T5 yet? Nope. Did they just order planes and talk about future plans? Yes. Hmm...  Wink
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astuteman
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 2:18 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 13):
Airbus can't afford to sell A380s at launch prices forever, for example, or that break even number moves above 500.

Indeed. What concerns me most for the 748i is the perception by many people that Boeing had much more "wiggle room" with the pricing of the 748i than Airbus did with the A380.
The dollar is very low..
The 748i is a low-cost derivative..
Boeing appear to be in a stronger financial position just now..
If those people's perception is correct............

My perception is that neither firm "gives" its planes away, and that there is ALWAYS a sound financial case for taking a contract at a particular price.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 13):
The 787 also has to make money for Boeing

 checkmark 
I find it highly unlikely that Boeing needed to resort to launch discounting to secure the 787 contract.
That was won on merit, (size, specification and timing) IMO
It's unquestionably the right plane this time around.

Regards
 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 2:32 am

Quoting RIX (Reply 12):
Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 7):
With BA flying a higher proportion of F & J seats than most airlines, might it be that the upper deck would be exclusively for F & J

From my impression with what the proportion is, I'd rather expect the opposite deck allocation.

That would never do. Here in the UK the working classes are always accomodated "downstairs"  gasp   snooty 
 
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Stitch
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 2:39 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 15):
My perception is that neither firm "gives" its planes away, and that there is ALWAYS a sound financial case for taking a contract at a particular price.

And a very astute perception it would be, sir.  yes 
 
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mariner
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:21 am

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 1):
Which begs the question, do both OEM's continue ad infinitum with the "launch customer rates"?

Like Astuteman, I very much doubt that Boeing gave the launch discount to BA for the 787, but most everyone agrees, BA got a discount of some kind.

I would be fairly sure Boeing did offer launch discount - or close to it - for the 748. There is not a long list of launch customers for the pax version.

As to Airbus, it may well be that they felt that they had to match the Boeing offer. I have heard all manner of rumors as to what BA is paying - from the probable to the silly.

It may also be that Airbus believed it was an order they had to get - and they got it.

I have never understood the relevance of these discussions. I know of one airline, an Airbus customer, who didn't convert additional options for more aircraft because Airbus wouldn't cut a deal - that's not a sentence you read often on a.net.  Smile

The reports of negotiations for aircraft sales have always seemed to me to resemble a Middle Eastern bazaar, where bargaining is the key.

But if anyone implies that BA only bought the A380 because it was a giveaway price, it presenta a fairly negative view of BA.

I feel much the same way about the "jingo-ism" debate.

mariner
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gigneil
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:24 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 6):
Airlines talk with each other and industry analysts and those analysts post the data in public form.

I can't imagine that sir. Negotiated deals are HIGHLY confidential in every business I've ever worked in, and I've seen people sued, fired, and sent to jail in some serious cases for divulging deal specifics.

NS
 
ikramerica
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:28 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 15):
Indeed. What concerns me most for the 748i is the perception by many people that Boeing had much more "wiggle room" with the pricing of the 748i than Airbus did with the A380.

Totally. The 748i is not likely being strongly discounted. Boeing only need make it a bit more attractive than the A380, nothing more. And if it slows up A380 sales, or creates such confusion that airlines don't order, it helps Boeing. The demand for the 748F will be strong for many years to come, so the 748i is less of a "loss" for them. The A380F is stillborn for the time being, so Airbus must sell A380s in pax trim ASAP.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 15):
I find it highly unlikely that Boeing needed to resort to launch discounting to secure the 787 contract.

I do believe that they had already worked out pricing, discounted heavily but not launch pricing, just like they already worked out delivery dates in 2010, even though the line is "sold out" into 2013.
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Stitch
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 3:54 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 19):
I can't imagine that sir. Negotiated deals are HIGHLY confidential in every business I've ever worked in, and I've seen people sued, fired, and sent to jail in some serious cases for divulging deal specifics.

I should probably be more clear. The absolute specifics of each deal (especially ancillaries) would be kept quiet. But analysts and airlines can read airline group financial reports and glean data to at least have a ballpark on what is being offered by the customers. They are not going in blind.
 
RIX
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 4:00 am

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 16):
Quoting RIX (Reply 12):
Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 7):
With BA flying a higher proportion of F & J seats than most airlines, might it be that the upper deck would be exclusively for F & J

From my impression with what the proportion is, I'd rather expect the opposite deck allocation.

That would never do. Here in the UK the working classes are always accomodated "downstairs"

- well, BA FIRST on 747s looks to be an exception  Smile... Indeed, on BA 744s 4 premium cabins take more space than 2 WT+/WT ones. "Working class" downstairs would mean plenty of coach class seating (even if half of it goes to WT+), which does not look to be a BA model.
 
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mariner
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 4:05 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 21):
But analysts and airlines can read airline group financial reports and glean data to at least have a ballpark on what is being offered by the customers.

Um, yes - and no. Or rather - ballpark-ish.

I know of cases where different analysts arrived at quite different prices, by some margin, that airlines have paid for aircraft, all based supposedly on the same available data.

mariner
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caminito
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 4:13 am

I am trying here to qualify the actions of BA.
SUMMARY
------------
1) Which is the significance of naming the B777 and seemingly excluding the B748i as competitors for the 2nd. Round? Is BA drifting away from future VLA use?
2)) Why they chose to limit the order, letting open the door for a 2nd. Round?
3) Which are the implications of the 12 A380 order?
4) Was the A380 order influenced by BA external considerations? [/i][/b]
5) Timing of the deliveries of this 1st and of orders/deliveries of the 2nd Round and consequences on the aircraft selection for 2nd. Round) [/i][/b]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1) [/i] Which is the significance of naming the B777 and seemingly excluding the B748i as competitors for the 2nd. Round? Is BA drifting away from future VLA use??[/i]
a) It is very interesting to see that BA, as already noticeable at Cathay, and further by the lack of mention of the B748i, seem to drift away from the use of VLA, except on a few routes with extreme high pax and/or airport saturation
This implies that BA intends to cover the vast majority of the B744 routes with somewhat smaller 350 pax planes and in case that the pax volume so justifies, increase the frequency or add a smaller B787-8 or 9
b) If this tendency becomes general, the forecast of a VLA duplication in 20 years will prove totally wrong.

2) [/i]Why they chose to limit the order, letting open the door for a 2nd.
Round?[/i]

a) Obviously, basing on what is said above in 1), given the still not defined situation of the B787-10X, A350-1000 and B777-300ER upgrade, they need for clarification of these issues before ordering.
b) But in case that they finally come to the conviction that 350 pax aircraft are too small for an important number of missions, IMO the B748i will become again a leading alternative.

3) Which are the implications of the 12 A380 order?
Even if it constitutes the first new customer order in 2 years, which is positive, its limited size, similar as in case of LH and AF, shows clearly that these extremely experienced airlines consider this aircraft adequate only for a relatively small percentage of the present VLA need estimations (see also 1b.)
This would mean that the break-even figure, indicated by Airbus ¡°clearly above 400¡±, probably 500-600, is not achievable.
It goes without saying that it constitutes also bad new for the B748i, even if softened by the fact that this relatively low cost derivative could break even solely with the cargo version and by the said in 2b. applied to any airline.

4) Was the A380 order influenced by BA external considerations?
a) The answer is a clear YES, as foreseen by me and other, in spite flames by some A-netters
The same A-netters accept without protesting that BA has a preference (other parameters being equal) for the British RR (even if they accept GE engines as the large quantity their B777-200ER proves), but seem not to be able to accept such preference for other British components as for the A380 and more important, to avoid
that the French-German lead EADS/Airbus pulls manufactures and jobs out of the UK!
b) Notwithstanding, as the decision between the A380 and B748i was nearly a draw, BA does not have any negative consequence by the purchase of the A380, which is adequate for their needs (and probably was very low priced)

5) [ Timing of the deliveries of this 1st and of orders/deliveries of the 2nd Round and consequences on the aircraft selection for 2nd.
Round)

As supported by my Replies 10 and 41 on the thread °BA's next fleet decision
2008-2009" [url] BA's Next Fleet Decision: 2008-2009 (by Revelation Sep 27 2007 in Civil Aviation)#last [/url]
the aircraft ordered in the second round must be delivered 2013/2014, as BA will be
not able to operate later B744 with fuel burn possibly 40% higher then the
competing models then available. Therefore, the second round aircraft must be
available by then. As the A350-1000 cannot be so, it will be out of competition.
Boeing would be able to supply the B787-10X in time, but it is not sure if the would
be willing to do so, which would limit the choice to the B777-300ER and eventually
an upgrade of this model!
 
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mariner
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 4:39 am

Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
The answer is a clear YES, as foreseen by me and other

Sorry, but that is not a "clear yes" to me, althoughti might - might - be a muddy yes.

mariner
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ikramerica
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 4:55 am

Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
I am trying here to qualify the actions of BA.
SUMMARY

Fantastic summary. I don't play the Respected User list game, and haven't added anyone in a long while, but since yoy are new, I'm gonna give you a vote. Clean, concise yet detailed.

Not sure I buy the 40% less efficient 744 argument (it's the most efficient jet, per pax, in service today), so I don't think they will have to replace all 57 by 2014, but the age is a key factor, and they will have to replace 30 by 2015 just due to age alone. They have not ordered enough A380s, nor optioned enough, to do that, nor do I think they desire 25-30 A380s at this time (though that may change). The A350-1000 won't be flying in time either. The 787-10 might be, but it is much smaller than a 744. And there will be 772s to replace starting in 2015 as well...

So I agree that the size and scope of this order indicates that BA does not know what the future holds, but does know they can use 12 A380s and 24 787s no matter what.

Contrast this to QF, who claimed to know their future fully: A380s and 787s. Then only a year later was looking at other planes...

Quoting Mariner (Reply 25):
Sorry, but that is not a "clear yes" to me, althoughti might - might - be a muddy yes.

Influence is not an all or nothing thing. A muddy yes is a clear yes. Acknowledging that there was some influence is a yes, not only a 1/2 yes.

As I stated before, WIllie showed his cards by saying "RR are better because they are British." That is a political statement, not a reality based one. They may very well be better for a whole number of reasons, but it aint cuz they're British. Last time I checked, RR and GE and Snecma and PW all made fine engines...

BA can't deny political pressure and then in the same comment play politics. Well, they can, but it's dishonest...  Wink
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mariner
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 5:01 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 26):
A muddy yes is a clear yes.

Not to me.

At least in the BBC interview, Mr. Walsh made his "British is best" statement expressly clear.

That BA had examined all the availaible engine options, and has decided on RR. "In this case", he said "British is best".

But those words - "in this case" - omitted by some, in some reports of his statement, set the ground rules.

mariner
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astuteman
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 5:18 am

Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
It is very interesting to see that BA, as already noticeable at Cathay, and further by the lack of mention of the B748i, seem to drift away from the use of VLA

Or at least away from the 748i........

Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
IMO the B748i will become again a leading alternative.

If BA need a bigger plane than the 773ER/A350-1000/787HGW, they will HAVE the A380.....

Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
Even if it constitutes the first new customer order in 2 years, which is positive, its limited size, similar as in case of LH and AF, shows clearly that these extremely experienced airlines consider this aircraft adequate only for a relatively small percentage of the present VLA need estimations (see also 1b.)

Or they don't want to/can't afford to order them all at once. You (and we) can only guess at this time how many A380's any of these airlines will finally order......

Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
This would mean that the break-even figure, indicated by Airbus ¡°clearly above 400¡±, probably 500-600, is not achievable

Of course it would ....... wouldn't it?  no 

Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
The answer is a clear YES, as foreseen by me and other, in spite flames by some A-netters

Based on what evidence? Is this another case of bias presented as fact?
(Groundhog day, yet again)

Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
The same A-netters accept without protesting that BA has a preference (other parameters being equal) for the British RR

A "preference" is distinctly different from an "outside pressure"

Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
As the A350-1000 cannot be so, it will be out of competition. Boeing would be able to supply the B787-10X in time, but it is not sure if the would be willing to do so, which would limit the choice to the B777-300ER and eventually an upgrade of this model!

??? Sorry. I must have lost the plot somewhere. Funny that BA don't seem to be up to speed with this particular "fact".

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 26):
I don't play the Respected User list game, and haven't added anyone in a long while, but since yoy are new, I'm gonna give you a vote. Clean, concise yet detailed.

What was wrong with the first three times around?  Smile

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 26):
WIllie showed his cards by saying "RR are better because they are British." That is a political statement, not a reality based one

Showed his cards? What? like he has a sense of humour?  Yeah sure

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 26):
Fantastic summary

Fantastic, as in fantasy?
 rotfl 

Regards
 
ikramerica
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 5:20 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 27):
That BA had examined all the availaible engine options, and has decided on RR. "In this case", he said "British is best".

It's still political. I can't remember the last time I heard a non-British CEO state in an engine choice or aircraft choice statement or interview that "British was best" or "American is best" or any such mularky. That statement is political, and it sounds like an attempt to make sure nobody thinks there was any pressure on them to buy British. Of course there's a damned if you do, damned if you don't aspect to the whole thing, and people, like me, will believe what we believe, but the statements by Walsh are so defensive, it sounds like guilt.

He makes claims that he felt absolutely no pressure and was contacted by no one. That is obviously a lie. Even if he didn't feel any pressure, the politicians in England would not be doing their jobs if they didn't talk to him about it...

In the USA, we use a term "bullshit detector" and it is often used when listening to corporate or political PR. My meter is in the red here...  Wink
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 5:20 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 26):
(it's the most efficient jet, per pax, in service today

 confused  From studying the charts posted on this forum, that is apparently no longer the case. The most efficient per passenger is the 77W, by quite a margin. There are several that beat the 744, including the A330 and (I believe) the A346. This is probably a big reason why pax sales of the 744 have been declining for a long time.
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 5:26 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 29):
I can't remember the last time I heard a non-British CEO state in an engine choice or aircraft choice statement or interview that "British was best" or "American is best" or any such mularky. That statement is political,

Or not, perhaps

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 29):
the statements by Walsh are so defensive, it sounds like guilt.

???????

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 29):
In the USA, we use a term "bullshit detector" and it is often used when listening to corporate or political PR. My meter is in the red here...

Perhaps it needs re-calibrating to Anglo-Irish humour....

Regards
 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 5:27 am

Funny how some people say that Aiibus is too dependent on one airline for the bulk of its orders, but the minute that they get a "blue chip" airline to order a dozen then which should appease them that Airbus is now spreading it's customer base, they now claim that

Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
extremely experienced airlines consider this aircraft adequate only for a relatively small percentage of the present VLA need

In terms of the numbers of remaining 744s on their books once all the A380 have been delivered, perhaps we might be able to say that the advent of the 787 may allow them the extremely remote possibility of serving that bit of Britain not known as LHR with new long-haul routes, which may allow some traffic subsitution away from LHR, and so the need for having a "new" aircraft as large as a 744 at LHR may be lessened; note that the routes which the A380 will be potentially deployed will almost certainly not have a regional UK service offered by airlines that (a) offer good frequency, (b) be touted as a full-frills carrier, and (c) operate aricraft in a 3 or 4 class cabin configuration.

[Edited 2007-09-28 22:31:49]
 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 5:31 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 29):
It's still political.

Again, not to me.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 29):
That is obviously a lie.

I don't generally accuse people of being liars without some solid evidence to support the accusation.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 29):
In the USA, we use a term "bullshit detector"

I worked in Hollywood for twenty years. I have a fairly finely tuned bullshit detector.

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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 5:44 am

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 30):
There are several that beat the 744... This is probably a big reason why pax sales of the 744 have been declining for a long time.

The biggest reason is they don't need the capacity when smaller airplanes with same range are available. Be 744 still the most efficient, they'd need to fill it to get an advantage of this efficiency. By the other hand, if you need the capacity, you'll buy even relatively less efficient larger plane. And this is the only chance for VLAs to get sold, as initial idea with least set-mile cost because of size was steamrolled by new generation of mid-size planes. That's why 20 more sales and 1 new customer a year is a huge celebration for either of VLA manufacturers.
 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 6:02 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 29):
He makes claims that he felt absolutely no pressure and was contacted by no one. That is obviously a lie.

'Obviously' only to you and a few other Americans. Seriously, you've been whining about this for a week now, in half a dozen different threads. It's starting to get pretty damn annoying. Get over it already.
 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 7:07 am

Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
1) Which is the significance of naming the B777 and seemingly excluding the B748i as competitors for the 2nd round?

Perhaps they feel the 747-8I has no role in their future fleet plans?

Quote:
Is BA drifting away from future VLA use?

If it was, I doubt they would have secured nine options.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
2) Why they chose to limit the order, letting open the door for a 2nd round?

Perhaps they have decided they have no need for a plane with a 400-500 seat "manufacturer's suggested configuration" capacity in their future fleet?

Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
3) Which are the implications of the 12 A380 order?

IMO, it is that they intend to use the A388 to anchor the top end of their fleet, a position formerly held by members of the 747 family.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
4) Was the A380 order influenced by BA external considerations?

IMO, unlikely.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
5) Timing of the deliveries of this 1st and of orders/deliveries of the 2nd Round and consequences on the aircraft selection for 2nd round.

BA has a near-term need to replace some of their 747 and all of their 767 fleet. Airbus was able to provide them with A380s and Boeing was able to provide them with 787s in necessary quantities to meet this need.
 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 7:42 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 39):
If the 747-8 Intercontinental was even half as good as Boeing claim it is then BA would have ordered it.

It likely is as good as Boeing claims it is.

The A380 is just better.
 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 7:54 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 40):

The A380 is just better.

..you meant "better for BA's needs".... Wink
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 7:56 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 40):
Quoting EI321 (Reply 39):
If the 747-8 Intercontinental was even half as good as Boeing claim it is then BA would have ordered it.

It likely is as good as Boeing claims it is.

The A380 is just better.

But Boeing claims 10% lower fuel burn per seat than the A380. Its nothing like that in real world figures
 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 8:02 am

As you only quote my self-questions, I assume that you have read also my answers, which I do not repeat here:

Quoting Stitch (Reply 38):
Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
1) Which is the significance of naming the B777 and seemingly excluding the B748i as competitors for the 2nd round?

Perhaps they feel the 747-8I has no role in their future fleet plans?

Obviously.
:

Quote:
Is BA drifting away from future VLA use?

If it was, I doubt they would have secured nine options.

I see only 7, not that it is important. BA stated that the option were to allow them to adapt themselves to possible increased market demands
Anyway, this is a low percentage referred to the 57 B744. They state that the remaining (45) B744 will not be VLAs

Quote:
2) Why they chose to limit the order, letting open the door for a 2nd round?

Perhaps they have decided they have no need for a plane with a 400-500 seat "manufacturer's suggested configuration" capacity in their future fleet?

Seems not a reason as the configuration was up to them and anyway, this apply only for the A380.

Quote:
3) Which are the implications of the 12 A380 order?

IMO, it is that they intend to use the A388 to anchor the top end of their fleet, a position formerly held by members of the 747 family.

This was not what I addressed with my self-question, as you can see by my answers[/quote]

Quote:

4) Was the A380 order influenced by BA external considerations?

IMO, unlikely.

I do not agree. I explained the reasons in my answers and more so in Reply37

Quote:

5) Timing of the deliveries of this 1st and of orders/deliveries of the 2nd Round and consequences on the aircraft selection for 2nd round.

BA has a near-term need to replace some of their 747 and all of their 767 fleet. Airbus was able to provide them with A380s and Boeing was able to provide them with 787s in necessary quantities to meet this need.

This is correct, but please refer to my reply24
 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 8:38 am

Quoting Caminito (Reply 43):
They state that the remaining (45) B744 will not be VLAs

They didn't state that, at least not clearly..


I have really a hard time understanding how the people enjoy that much seeing conspiracy theories everywhere, even if I have to say Especially regarding Airbus deals...
All the time implying Boeing is without a shadow of a doubt always above that...
Now you'll have really a hard time leading me to believe that each Boeing deal is always spotless and never driven at least partly by political reasons... american and japanese airlines first.

IMHO it's quite a similar situation for both A and B.

But most important of all Congratulations Boeing, Airbus, BA and RR, the A380 program and the 787 program; this made my day, especially after having read long long threads about "No way BA will ever goin Airbus for long-haul".

Well done!!

Ciao  wave 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 9:37 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 41):
..you meant "better for BA's needs"....  Wink

And SQ's. And QF's. Looks like EK's, too. And AF's. Might not be for TG's, then again, maybe it is.

Quoting EI321 (Reply 42):
But Boeing claims 10% lower fuel burn per seat than the A380. Its nothing like that in real world figures.

Mainly because we don't have any real-world figures for the 747-8I, yet.

Again, too many people are just dismissing the 747-8I out of hand because "it's old". It's the same silliness that people used to belittle the original A350 because it shared design concepts with the A300 and that plane was "old", too.

I'm not advocating that the 747-8I will be a "world beater", but it sure isn't going to be a "beater" (American slang for an old, decrepit automobile), either.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 43):
As you only quote my self-questions...

I was just trying to be brief, but I can wade in and respond deeper.

Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
It is very interesting to see that BA, as already noticeable at Cathay, and further by the lack of mention of the B748i, seem to drift away from the use of VLA, except on a few routes with extreme high pax and/or airport saturation. This implies that BA intends to cover the vast majority of the B744 routes with somewhat smaller 350 pax planes and in case that the pax volume so justifies, increase the frequency or add a smaller B787-8 or 9. If this tendency becomes general, the forecast of a VLA duplication in 20 years will prove totally wrong.

By design, a VLA will be most effective on the routes requiring the most human payload per frequency. Those routes are not a plurality, to say nothing of a majority, of those in existence. I'm hearing rumors BA's plans envision a maximum of 35 A388s, which means earlier rumors of BA abandoning routes like Australia and India may not come to fruitition and BA may be considering to continue to fight for a significant share of those routes and they all can support VLAs.

Quote:
Given the still not defined situation of the B787-10X, A350-1000 and B777-300ER upgrade, they need for clarification of these issues before ordering. But in case that they finally come to the conviction that 350 pax aircraft are too small for an important number of missions, IMO the B748i will become again a leading alternative.

I disagree. I believe BA will skip the 747-8I's capacity and go direct to the A388 again.

Quote:
Even if it constitutes the first new customer order in 2 years, which is positive, its limited size, similar as in case of LH and AF, shows clearly that these extremely experienced airlines consider this aircraft adequate only for a relatively small percentage of the present VLA need estimations. This would mean that the break-even figure, indicated by Airbus ¡°clearly above 400¡±, probably 500-600, is not achievable.

I do not expect the A380 program to break even, but every frame sold helps lessen the negative RoI of the program, and that can only be viewed as a positive at this stage.

Quote:
The answer is a clear YES (that the A380 order influenced by BA external considerations), as foreseen by me and other, in spite flames by some A-netters.

I disagree. Folks are trying to get inside Mr. Walsh's head and explain what he was "meaning to say" when he said things.

The man bought Trent 900s for his A388s and Trent 1000s for his 787s because they work better for him then GP7000s and GEnxs. That they happen to be British is a plus. And considering the number of Trents in his current fleet, to say nothing of the number in his historical fleet, I argue that if he had instead bought EA and GE power, that would have been the "political" move - to appease the American government for backing out of Iraq or some other such silliness.

Besides, if not for some stupid tax rules here in WA state, the Trent 1000's likely would have been built here, so by picking RR the man would have been "buying American"!

Quote:
The same A-netters accept without protesting that BA has a preference (other parameters being equal) for the British RR (even if they accept GE engines as the large quantity their B777-200ER proves), but seem not to be able to accept such preference for other British components as for the A380 and more important, to avoid that the French-German lead EADS/Airbus pulls manufactures and jobs out of the UK!

Airbus' production facilities are where they are. The consortium is European and was created to support European aerospace, after all, so why should folks be surprised when they decided to place those facilities in Europe? Not to mention a lot of the sub-assemblies that go to those European facilities were built here in the good ol' U S of A. There is a surprising amount of "Stars and Stripes" hidden under that "Circle of Stars" on the side of each A380.

Quote:
Notwithstanding, as the decision between the A380 and B748i was nearly a draw, BA does not have any negative consequence by the purchase of the A380, which is adequate for their needs (and probably was very low priced).

I didn't know you were made privy to both the contract and the negotiations themselves...  sarcastic 

Quote:
The aircraft ordered in the second round must be delivered 2013/2014...As the A350-1000 cannot be so, it will be out of competition. Boeing would be able to supply the B787-10X in time, but it is not sure if the would be willing to do so, which would limit the choice to the B777-300ER and eventually an upgrade of this model!

I've read BA's press releases and I don't see any hard delivery dates listed...in fact, their spokeswoman notes "it is too early to discuss the second round of orders as we're going to be busy integrating our current order into the fleet". Plus BA is likely to be adding the last of the current order of planes in 2013 and 2014, so the second round of planes will likely see delivery dates between 2015 and 2025 which means they have plenty of time to evaluate the A350 and 787HGW proposals.
 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 9:52 am

Are we STILL on about this mythical political order?
Guess what, Willie Walsh is known for his sense of humour, as part of his general informality (when you meet him, he's all open neck shirts, with a very casual manner), he's been teasing about this order with the press for ages, you never know, he might take the odd peek here and decide to stir things?

To remind people, GE run the major facility that overhauls BA engines, they have a substantial presence as a vendor within BA despite only a minority of the fleet having their engines.
R/R won it on merit.

BA has said that only one 4 engined large type will be ordered, BA have also have a policy now of keeping the mix of types in the fleet as low as possible.
Now A380 has been chosen, yes on merit, as far as BA is concerned, the 747 is now only a legacy aircraft, no new versions will be brought, it was either 747-8 or A380.

BA will get relatively early (for not an early customer), 787 deliveries in 2010, since the outstanding 777 options are to be converted to 787's, so the 4 aircraft ordered early this year of 8 options, will be the last of that order.

For the rest of the 747-400 replacement, we now know that A350-1000, 787-10 and 777-300ER are in the running, it is not clear if only one or a mix of two of these will be chosen.
My own view is that it is possible that the 777 may be chosen for the shorter term, with the main competition being between 787 and A350. We've seen some 787 customers go with A350 too, noting that some see the A350-1000 as a potential early 777 replacement, well by the time that arrives to market, our own early 777's will be hitting 20 years old.
Or will BA stick with just one new generation twin type? Who knows? No one here that's for sure, because BA don't either yet.

For myself at BA, and I think many others too, this order, though long mooted, made for a 'spring in our step' day.
At last, after all the years of austerity, BA get right into 21st Century aircraft, expansion not retrenchment.
Not since the Concorde service was re-launched on 7th November 2001, (albeit it now into an impossible post Sept 11th environment for it), or perhaps that great flypast with it over London with the Red Arrows in June 2002, have I personally felt like that at work.

Myself and many others are going to be plenty busy in the next few years, two exciting new types into service, I hope our cabin development people are allowed to be as creative as possible on the A380 particularly.
The ones I've spoken to are very excited.

My own view of the 747-8 vs the A380 was that if we were going to go out and buy a new large aircraft, better to future proof with the larger type, once it's agreed we need one in that class, also A380 is an aircraft at the start of it's development/production life, not almost certainly the last version of a legacy type-however impressively upgraded.
With the 787, with BA wanting 2010 first deliveries, it was a shoo in, but that is not to take away what the 787 will bring to us.
With more and more competitors to operate it, with it's promised major enhancements in the cabin environment, BA really HAD to have it.

Any Air netters who have met me, spoken direct to me, know that I saw A380/787 as the obvious choices well before this order was announced. Because they just were !
UK industry gains, welcome as they are, was not a factor here, nor with anyone else.
No politics at all, there was never so much as a whisper of it beyond the press that many who cited it on this subject, all too often (and rightly) slate for poor or just plain sensation seeking falsehoods.
It's make your mind up time on that.
And I'd stake all I own, including financially, on this.
 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 10:01 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 29):
It's still political. I can't remember the last time I heard a non-British CEO state in an engine choice or aircraft choice statement or interview that "British was best" or "American is best" or any such mularky. That statement is political, and it sounds like an attempt to make sure nobody thinks there was any pressure on them to buy British. Of course there's a damned if you do, damned if you don't aspect to the whole thing, and people, like me, will believe what we believe, but the statements by Walsh are so defensive, it sounds like guilt.

He makes claims that he felt absolutely no pressure and was contacted by no one. That is obviously a lie. Even if he didn't feel any pressure, the politicians in England would not be doing their jobs if they didn't talk to him about it...

In the USA, we use a term "bullshit detector" and it is often used when listening to corporate or political PR. My meter is in the red here...

Sorry but this is just NOT acceptable. You can drum up all the jingoism you want...BA didnt buy american, Britain tuirns it back on the USA, Britain exits Iraq, Britain funds OBL....Take it where you want. But thgis airline will NOT make decisions for anything other than maximising profit. I have read and reread so many posts here and yet there is another thread talking about Ryanair considering TATL seriosly. Right or wrong, I have set out many risk factors to EVERY legacy carrier that exists over the next 10 to 20 years. There is just too much uncertainty.

But contradicting myself for a moment, this recent order is not THE order. This has always been spelt out as an initial pre order for critical replacement of aging fleet. The real big order is next year or 2009.


It really irritates me that BA cant place this order without cries of political foul play. THe 380 is here to stay whether it is profitable for EADS or not. Airlines can still make money out of it. If it breaks EADS, I am only too sure Boeing would pick up the crumbs if the regulators would let them. That is life in the free enterprise world.

THis order makes perfect sense with hindsight. Even if BA passenger numbers shrink year on year because of Longhaul LCC competition or massively higher fares due to oil or green taxes, they (and LH and AF ) will still find a profitable niche for 12 380's. And if all the rmaining 744's are replaced with smaller (but greater numbers of) 787's then so be it, if that is the lower risk route to maximum profits.

I for one will sadly miss the 744 in the BA fleet if it truly is not to adopt the 748. She has been a great servent to the company and the industry and indeed the world at large. BA has over the past 4 decades been a great customer of Boeing, even back in the days of being a STATE OWNED AND RUN AIRLINE during the 1970s when it ordered the 747, 737 in numbers.

Please give it up. You really piss us off over here with these unsupported sweeping sour grapes comments. At the end of the day BA ordered both A and B. Everyone got something
 
GDB
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 10:28 am

I agree Moo. Give it up, for god's sake.
(Or provide proof, and a discredited report in a paper that told a bunch of serious lies about BA on safety last year, provoking a very strong reaction from BA as you'd expect, just does not cut it. I suppose we should note who believes that crap, and remind them of this when they complain about a press report that goes against pre-conceptions or prejudices).
(Knowing how the civil service leaks like a sieve here, we'd know by now anyway).

We can date the end of UK governments, of both major parties, ending a 'picking winners' and political intervention in non military/security related contracts, back to 1976.
The IMF crisis for the UK that year, caused major policy changes across the board, yes it even pre-dated Thatcher.
(Callaghan's Labour government actually introduced a mild monetarism policy after the IMF debacle).

But in effect, direct interference in what airlines choose in particular, ended nearly 40 years ago, for the perfectly simple reason that this was not now doing either industry any good at all. In the years after WW2, when the civil industry was in effect re-starting after commercial aircraft development entirely ended on the outbreak of war, there was sound reasons for government involvement, by the 60's it was becoming a burden.
As the merged company from BEA/BOAC, BA have NEVER experienced any such government attention.
And no one has provided proof, ever, that they have.

Since some insist on saying in effect that what was true 40 years ago here, is still how it is, in the spirit of this, I've some questions for them about some issues in the US 'now';
Do you think LBJ can carry on pouring resources into South Vietnam indefinitely?
Do you think that JFK's 'Man On The Moon before 1970' target is still possible after Apollo 1?
What will be the effect on the Democrat's of the Civil Rights Act, on their Southern base in '68?
Will Concorde/B2707 SST's be allowed to go overland, and can Boeing's ambitious design work?
Is the 'Counter Culture' movement in Haight-Ashbury, likely to spread nationwide?
Can anyone top what The Beatles have just created with the 'Sqt Pepper' album?


The above sounds mad things to ask doesn't it? Believe me, that is just how the assertions about government inference on this recent BA order sounds to our ears on this side of the pond.
 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 11:07 am

First, this thread is taking an interesting A vs. B tone.

I'd like to first note the engines.

On the A380, RR is clearly the preferred engine.  Sad (Sorry PM, but we'll be voting for opposite engines here.) From an economies of scale perspective, maintenance should be cheaper simply from the greater number in the fleet.

On the 787, I've been incredibly impressed with the Trent. However, the GEnX has fractionally lower cruise fuel burn, but the Trent has much lower climb fuel burn. Much lower. Thus, on 763ER replacement runs (versus long runs out of Oz), the Trent should be the better choice.

On VLA's, BA has made numerous statements that they prefer to standardize on a smaller (350 to 400) seat airframe. My thoughts is that its not worth pursuing the few hundred added seats in high season if during low season no runs support the airframe. Personally, I believe in grabbing every seat (or a competitor will find a niche), but there is a reason I'm not on BA's board of directors.  Wink

Quoting Mariner (Reply 18):
The reports of negotiations for aircraft sales have always seemed to me to resemble a Middle Eastern bazaar, where bargaining is the key.

That they are. A mix of math, superstition, and outright horse trading. Good to see BA went for it. One reason EK is disliked is that they are so good at it.  duck 

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 20):
I do believe that they had already worked out pricing, discounted heavily but not launch pricing, just like they already worked out delivery dates in 2010, even though the line is "sold out" into 2013.

It does appear that way. But when certain airlines call... you make slots.

Heck, I know Boeing has created a "one off" slot for a customer I'm working with...

Quoting Caminito (Reply 24):
This would mean that the break-even figure, indicated by Airbus ¡°clearly above 400¡±, probably 500-600, is not achievable.

We'll see... the financing was cheap. I think the A389 will be the definitive A380 model.  Wink

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 28):
Or at least away from the 748i........

That does seem to be the case... an A350-1000 would be tough to beat with a 4 holer... If Boeing was hitting all of the numbers they were promising, I'd think they would sell more. Perhaps Boeing is running the line too slow (delivery slots out too late).

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 28):
Or they don't want to/can't afford to order them all at once. You (and we) can only guess at this time how many A380's any of these airlines will finally order......

I wonder how many are still in a trial period. Historically, aircraft orders have 3 surges.

First as the model is announced (prior to 1st flight).

Second after the model has been in service long enough to prove its a good airframe (exercised options and new customers).

Third is after a revision (e.g., 744)

If an airframe is able to establish a long production run, there then tends to be a constant "burn" of orders. This is due to the lease companies being comfortable having a large number in their inventory, airline executives leaving one airline to another bringing a positive impression of an airframe with them, etc.

It will be interesting to see what BA orders next.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 33):
I worked in Hollywood for twenty years. I have a fairly finely tuned bullshit detector.

After 20 years in Hollywood, I'd think the gauge needle would be busted.  Wink

Don't take that the wrong way, I live in LA. There is a reason everyone knows the rate of return on movies is poor. I'm wondering what will happen as more an more movies seem to be funded by the hedge funds.... that seems like a dangerous trend for the studios... but that is another discussion.

Lightsaber
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 11:18 am

Like many others, I too was expecting (and hoping for) a 747-8i order, I thought it would be a great fit for BA. BUT, I do not believe there was any, at least any major political pressure (Or at least none that was taken seriously by BA). The REASONS they chose the plane are its merits and value to their company and route system. (Afterall, the A380 is certainly not a bad airplane, as no bad plane would ever replace a 747)

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 29):
It's still political. I can't remember the last time I heard a non-British CEO state in an engine choice or aircraft choice statement or interview that "British was best" or "American is best" or any such mularky.

Well, not all airline CEOs have Walsh's sense of humor. Personally, I hardly find it political, just humorous. I suppose I would also laugh if Gary Kelly's (Southwest) next major fleet decision was acompanied with "If it aint Boeing, I aint going." Doesnt mean his decision was political.

Anyway, Great day for Boeing, Airbus, RR, and BA. Also, good day for me, finally signed up.
"We have a right to fail, because failure makes us grow" --Glenn Beck
 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 11:20 am

Quoting JoeCattoli (Reply 44):
They didn't state that, at least not clearly..

I think that by saying that the models to be considered are B787, A350 and B777, non of them a VLA, is clear enough!

Quoting EI321 (Reply 42):
But Boeing claims 10% lower fuel burn per seat than the A380. Its nothing like that in real world figures

this mot the
How do you know that?? I agree with you that real world figures must be awaited, but I assume Boeing provides guarantees instead.
Is this not the situation and argument which A-netters provided explaining the A350 orders for an aircraft not even fully designed?

Quoting Stitch (Reply 46):
I disagree. I believe BA will skip the 747-8I's capacity and go direct to the A388 again.

So, you assume that that if a mission end at an airport not prepared for A380 and a capacity of 400 pax at a configuration of 0.95m2/pax,
BA would use A380?

Could you answer this question? Do you think that BA can afford operating B744 after 2015, when much lower CASM B777 and B787, upto
30% in case of the latter,

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 52):
We'll see... the financing was cheap. I think the A389 will be the definitive A380 model

I assume you say this because the CAS/PAX wiould be better. But the A358 is already to pax-large and the tendency, as BA begins to show, is to smaller aircraft!
 
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RE: BA Decides: 12 X A380 & 24 X B787 Part 2

Sat Sep 29, 2007 11:31 am

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 52):
First, this thread is taking an interesting A vs. B tone.

"Interesting"? Sadly predictable and unedifying, I fear.  Sad

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 52):
On the A380, RR is clearly the preferred engine.

The number of customers speaks for itself. And they all or mostly seem to have been won on merit.

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 52):
(Sorry PM, but we'll be voting for opposite engines here.)

That's OK. A little friendly rivalry is a good thing!  Wink

Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 52):
It will be interesting to see what BA orders next.

Indeed. My guess is that the 747-8i truly is dead and buried and the 777-300ER is unlikely. BA say they are considering the latter but I suspect they won't order it. So the future is more A380s (not just the 7 options but perhaps a further order) and a fight between the 787 and A350. I see BA operating both the 787 and A350: the 787-8, 787-9 and A350-1000. The real (only?) contest will be between the 787-10 and A350-900. Who'll win that? No idea - except that RR will!

Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 53):
Also, good day for me, finally signed up.

Welcome! And, if I may say so, you open your career with an admirable post. Thanks!

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