FCKC
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All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 6:19 pm

French economic newspaper "Les Echos" (Highly reliable newspaper) wrote that internal source at Airbus in Toulouse , told after the BA A380 order , 4 airlines are in the pipeline to order the Whalejet as well.
They are : Air India , Air China , Korean Air ( option conversions , if any ?) , and .............All Nippon aw.

The first 3 are not a surprise (even if this is the first time i hear about option conversions for KE) , as already discussed at Airliners.net , but what about the fourth ?

CEO of NH declared some time ago , he has not in sight to introduce the A380 in his fleet , and see the 777 and 787 as the workhorses in his long haul strategy.

Did he change his mind ?
Any fresh news from Japan ?
 
columba
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 6:30 pm

Quoting FCKC (Thread starter):
Air China

Honestly I hope not, they were always rumored to be a potential 747-8I customer and I hope they will order it. I doubt that they would order both and the 747-8I could use some good press.

Quoting FCKC (Thread starter):
All Nippon

Not as big of a surprise as they always left the door open for a possible A380 order.

"If as other carriers introduce the A380 we feel we can’t compete, then we will acquire it, but the medium-term plan is not to order the aircraft,” he says."
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...oor-open-for-a380-despite-777.html

Airbus was in Japan this summer and presented the Aircraft to ANA maybe they could raise some more interest in it.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
Thorben
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 6:40 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 1):
"If as other carriers introduce the A380 we feel we can’t compete, then we will acquire it, but the medium-term plan is not to order the aircraft,” he says."

I see that happening AF, LH, BA, VS, and EK will fly the A380 to Japan, SQ will do so, too, and maybe even fly from there to the US with it. A380s offer a level of comfort at a price that the 77W can not compete with. So NH wouldn't need to bother to fly on routes served with A380s, unless they use A380s themselves.

Quoting Columba (Reply 1):
Quoting FCKC (Thread starter):
Air China

Honestly I hope not, they were always rumored to be a potential 747-8I customer and I hope they will order it. I doubt that they would order both and the 747-8I could use some good press.

Rumored. A lot of companies have been rumored to buy the 747-8I, but Air China is also a clear A380 candidate.

Quoting FCKC (Thread starter):
Air India

I'd never rule them out, certainly they need something bigger than the 77W, too.
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
columba
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 6:50 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 2):
I see that happening AF, LH, BA, VS, and EK will fly the A380 to Japan, SQ will do so, too, and maybe even fly from there to the US with it. A380s offer a level of comfort at a price that the 77W can not compete with. So NH wouldn't need to bother to fly on routes served with A380s, unless they use A380s themselves.

I agree, as soon as the A380 will enter service many airlines that have not ordered it now will place orders. ANA and JAL are most likely as well as CX.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 2):
Rumored. A lot of companies have been rumored to buy the 747-8I, but Air China is also a clear A380 candidate.

Yes but the Air China rumors were the most plausible.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 2):
I'd never rule them out, certainly they need something bigger than the 77W, too.

Leahy was quite confident to win Air India. I see other Indian carriers like Jet Airways as possible customers, too.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
Thorben
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 6:56 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 3):
I agree, as soon as the A380 will enter service many airlines that have not ordered it now will place orders. ANA and JAL are most likely as well as CX.

Right, especially CX, because they have high standards and will see a lot of foreign A380s at their home turf.

Quoting Columba (Reply 3):
Yes but the Air China rumors were the most plausible.

OK, can you explain why?

Quoting Columba (Reply 3):
Leahy was quite confident to win Air India. I see other Indian carriers like Jet Airways as possible customers, too.

Yes, AI and 9W are highly likely. Especially with AI now using A330s.
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
columba
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 7:31 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 4):

OK, can you explain why?

They were said to have ordered but did not sign the contract due to a diplomatic incident with the US.
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Glareskin
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 7:39 pm

Big version: Width: 640 Height: 454 File size: 71kb

How nice a liverey that would be.....

Quoting Columba (Reply 3):
Yes but the Air China rumors were the most plausible.

I thought their interest was in the A380F. Are you sure this is about the pax version?
There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
 
columba
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 7:41 pm

Quoting Glareskin (Reply 6):
Are you sure this is about the pax version?

747-8 not A380F and yes the passenger version.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
Thorben
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 7:42 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 5):
They were said to have ordered but did not sign the contract due to a diplomatic incident with the US.

And what is the source for that?
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
columba
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 7:44 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 8):
And what is the source for that?

The usual where I get my aviation knowledge: airliners.net and Aero International. Must have been one of the two.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 8:34 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 2):
A380s offer a level of comfort at a price that the 77W can not compete with.

Airlines can offer a similar level of comfort on both A380 and B77W. Japanese carriers haven been yield-orientated lately and reduced capacity on international trunk routes (B744 replaced by B77W).


PH
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kaitak
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 9:31 pm

Neither CA nor AI, KE or 9W would surprise me, but NH certainly would (and pleasantly so, of course). However, it would still be a big surprise. If you're competing on the most heavily travelled routes (which I'm assuming would be LAX, FRA, JFK, LHR, CDG, ORD and SFO), I would think that the aim would not be to get a larger aircraft, but to ensure that the product is superior - which NH does anyway.
 
slz396
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 10:17 pm

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 10):
Airlines can offer a similar level of comfort on both A380 and B77W.

Actually they can't.

The reason being that the A380 is to set new standards of F and C class seats, which are much more voluminous than what we are used to today. If airlines want to install equally wide F and C class seats on the 777, they loose an awful lot of usable floorspace, which will then inflate the CASM of their plane. The alternative for them is to stick to their current cabin layout and see most of their top class pax deflect to airlines which do offer far more privacy and luxury for similar fares through A380s.

The choice for non-A380 WB operators is really dead simple:
-) offer an equal comfort to the individual F and C class pax on the 777 as on the A380s of the competitor's and inflate the CASM of the 777 as a consequence.
-) try to keep CASM down by making optimal use of floorspace, thus lacking comfort and probably loosing an awful lot of the high yielding pax.

You can be sure that the A380 is going to force its way into the fleets of many airlines which have taken a very conservative stance against it so far, simply because they won't want to make the above choice.
British Airways is only the first of many airlines which has come to understand they had to join, or they would be left behind...

In 10 years time, a long haul airline which is serving the larger airports in Asia is going to do so with A380, or they are not going to do so at all.
 
columba
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 10:21 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 12):
You can be sure that the A380 is going to force its way into the fleets of many airlines which have taken a very conservative stance against it so far, simply because they won't want to make the above choice.
British Airways is only the first of many airlines which has come to understand they had to join, or they would be left behind...

In 10 years time, a long haul airline which is serving the larger airports in Asia is going to do so with A380, or they are not going to do so at all.

 checkmark 
Could not have said it better.
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PlaneHunter
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 10:32 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 12):
Actually they can't.

The reason being that the A380 is to set new standards of F and C class seats, which are much more voluminous than what we are used to today. If airlines want to install equally wide F and C class seats on the 777, they loose an awful lot of usable floorspace, which will then inflate the CASM of their plane. The alternative for them is to stick to their current cabin layout and see most of their top class pax deflect to airlines which do offer far more privacy and luxury for similar fares through A380s.

The choice for non-A380 WB operators is really dead simple:
-) offer an equal comfort to the individual F and C class pax on the 777 as on the A380s of the competitor's and inflate the CASM of the 777 as a consequence.
-) try to keep CASM down by making optimal use of floorspace, thus lacking comfort and probably loosing an awful lot of the high yielding pax.

If there were only these options, numerous airlines would have already dropped their 787/A350 orders and stopped operating in fear of the mighty double decker...  Wink

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 12):
In 10 years time, a long haul airline which is serving the larger airports in Asia is going to do so with A380, or they are not going to do so at all.

And the 787s/A350s will be sold or moved to the desert?


PH
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slz396
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 10:40 pm

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 14):
If there were only these options, numerous airlines would have already dropped their 787/A350 orders and stopped operating in fear of the mighty double decker...

Wrong.

The A350 or 787 is a different plane, aimed at a different market segment and should thus not be used to compete against the A380. The airlines which have ordered them will deploy them on routes which can not support a 500 seating plane.

On routes which can accommodate A380s however (i.e. high density routes which see several thousands of seats offered a day), it increasingly looks like more and more world class airlines have come to understand they MUST have the A380 too to be able to hold on to their current market share as a smaller class plane will put them in un unfavourable position as I have explained above.
 
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RayChuang
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 10:50 pm

I'm not sure if NH would want to fly the A380-800. They'd rather fly smaller planes such as the 777-300ER, which fulfills their requirements for flights to Europe and North America.
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 10:52 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 15):
The A350 or 787 is a different plane, aimed at a different market segment and should thus not be used to compete against the A380. The airlines which have ordered them will deploy them on routes which can not support a 500 seating plane.

Of course the smaller aircraft will be deployed on routes supporting a 500 seating airplane - just more frequently. Additionally, 787s and A350s can be used to start new routes bypassing the large gateways.

The A380 will be great for slot resticted airports - but for many carriers it will be more lucrative to standardize on B77W/B787 class aircraft and concentrate on frequencies and yields. The expense for adding the A380 to the fleet for three or four routes is not worth it for many carriers.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 15):
On routes which can accommodate A380s however (i.e. high density routes which see several thousands of seats offered a day), it increasingly looks like more and more world class airlines have come to understand they MUST have the A380 too to be able to hold on to their current market share as a smaller class plane will put them in un unfavourable position as I have explained above.

Don't confuse high density routes with "slot-restricted" routes.


PH
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N14AZ
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sat Sep 29, 2007 11:01 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 15):
The A350 or 787 is a different plane, aimed at a different market segment and should thus not be used to compete against the A380.

Woaw, this is breaking news!! Didn't know this before...  Wink

But I have the feeling that the A380 program is definitely gathering momentum. Maybe even more when some of them are in service.
 
slz396
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 1:03 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 17):
Don't confuse high density routes with "slot-restricted" routes

I am not.

There are several routes in Asia which I can think of linking 2 mega-airports which are both relatively unrestricted and see an offer of several thousand of seats a day... those are the routes on which most A380s are going to be deployed as they will offer the operator the possibility to offer UNCOMPROMISED LUXURY and the LOWEST CASM, whereas competitors will have to choose.

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 17):
Of course the smaller aircraft will be deployed on routes supporting a 500 seating airplane - just more frequently.


Smaller planes will be flown on those routes too by second tier airlines which can only offer their F and C class pax (if any) less comfort than the top class airlines or by airlines which decide to focus on equal comfort levels as on the 'biggies' but at higher fares, but whether they will manage to secure their current market share on those routes in the long term to secure the 'higher frequency theory' is highly questionable.

British Airways did not want to end up belonging to those airlines who take the risk of gambling with their market share, so they've decided to order their first batch of A380s (my bet is it won't be their last) and my prediction is that many other airlines will follow over the next decade...

[Edited 2007-09-29 18:07:50]
 
Thorben
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 1:24 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 10):
Airlines can offer a similar level of comfort on both A380 and B77W.

Yes, but with 3-abreast in first, 3-abreast in business, and 8-abreast in economy class in the 77W. Maybe some will do that, but the price per seat would skyrocket.

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 10):
Japanese carriers haven been yield-orientated lately and reduced capacity on international trunk routes (B744 replaced by B77W).

Operating costs were probably the main factor in that decision, not capacity.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 12):
The reason being that the A380 is to set new standards of F and C class seats, which are much more voluminous than what we are used to today. If airlines want to install equally wide F and C class seats on the 777, they loose an awful lot of usable floorspace, which will then inflate the CASM of their plane. The alternative for them is to stick to their current cabin layout and see most of their top class pax deflect to airlines which do offer far more privacy and luxury for similar fares through A380s.

The choice for non-A380 WB operators is really dead simple:
-) offer an equal comfort to the individual F and C class pax on the 777 as on the A380s of the competitor's and inflate the CASM of the 777 as a consequence.
-) try to keep CASM down by making optimal use of floorspace, thus lacking comfort and probably loosing an awful lot of the high yielding pax.

You can be sure that the A380 is going to force its way into the fleets of many airlines which have taken a very conservative stance against it so far, simply because they won't want to make the above choice.
British Airways is only the first of many airlines which has come to understand they had to join, or they would be left behind...

In 10 years time, a long haul airline which is serving the larger airports in Asia is going to do so with A380, or they are not going to do so at all.

Exactly.

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 14):
If there were only these options, numerous airlines would have already dropped their 787/A350 orders and stopped operating in fear of the mighty double decker... Wink

787/A350 will serve other routes than the A380, or be used at times were demand is lower.

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 14):
And the 787s/A350s will be sold or moved to the desert?

There will be a use for them, not every route will be served with A380s.
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
dl767captain
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 2:46 am

well ANA ordering the A380 could happen, but i bet Boeing would give them an amazing deal on the 748 since they are the 787 launch customer, then become the Asian 748 launch customer, but an asian carrier hauls a ton of people so the A380 might be necessary.
 
sh0rtybr0wn
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 3:05 am

I would love to see ANA buy the A380. 10 with 10 options. Fly more people into NRT, and make more money.

They're in a much better financial situation than JAL right now, and they could really become most Japan's prestigious Air carrier if the offered the luxury A380 F and J type service. Kick your competition when they're down.



Plus. an ANA "Goldjet" would look beautiful.
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 3:36 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 19):
There are several routes in Asia which I can think of linking 2 mega-airports which are both relatively unrestricted and see an offer of several thousand of seats a day.

Examples?

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 19):
those are the routes on which most A380s are going to be deployed as they will offer the operator the possibility to offer UNCOMPROMISED LUXURY and the LOWEST CASM, whereas competitors will have to choose.

That "uncompromised luxury" argument reminds me of the first years of the B747...premium carriers don't need an A380 in order to offer luxury to F and C class pax - it's not like a lounge area is the big deal. And with the B787 and A350 entering the market, the A380's CASM advantage will shrink. Again: the A380 may have cost advantages on particular routes, but the question is whether it's worth it for an airline to add such a type for a small number of routes.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 19):
Smaller planes will be flown on those routes too by second tier airlines which can only offer their F and C class pax (if any) less comfort than the top class airlines or by airlines which decide to focus on equal comfort levels as on the 'biggies' but at higher fares, but whether they will manage to secure their current market share on those routes in the long term to secure the 'higher frequency theory' is highly questionable.

Interesting how you call airlines without the A380 "second tier" carriers...which is ridiculous. The A380 won't offer anything revolutionary which could not be adopted to other longhaul aircraft. And business pax are both interested in comfort and a choice of frequencies.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 20):

Yes, but with 3-abreast in first, 3-abreast in business, and 8-abreast in economy class in the 77W. Maybe some will do that, but the price per seat would skyrocket.

Simply no. You need to take into consideration all cost factors for the airline in total, not just concentrate on one or two particular routes.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 20):
Operating costs were probably the main factor in that decision, not capacity.

Yield...

Quoting Thorben (Reply 20):
787/A350 will serve other routes than the A380, or be used at times were demand is lower.

Or where demand is high and airline can offer more frequencies - which is what premium customers want and pay for - not just for "extra luxury" (or how PR departments want to call that).


PH
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keesje
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 3:47 am

Many theories have passed a.net why the Japanese will never need / order the A380, year after year. However this also was the case for BA, these theories didn´t really stick outside a.net. Airbus visited ANA twice at it´s home turf..

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
jacobin777
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 3:56 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 23):
That "uncompromised luxury" argument reminds me of the first years of the B747...premium carriers don't need an A380 in order to offer luxury to F and C class pax - it's not like a lounge area is the big deal. And with the B787 and A350 entering the market, the A380's CASM advantage will shrink. Again: the A380 may have cost advantages on particular routes, but the question is whether it's worth it for an airline to add such a type for a small number of routes.

Absolutely correct.......I think A.net is the only place on the planet where this myth exists... sarcastic 

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 23):

Interesting how you call airlines without the A380 "second tier" carriers...which is ridiculous.

....yup, yet another myth in "A.net world"....

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 23):
Quoting Thorben (Reply 20):

Yes, but with 3-abreast in first, 3-abreast in business, and 8-abreast in economy class in the 77W. Maybe some will do that, but the price per seat would skyrocket.

Simply no. You need to take into consideration all cost factors for the airline in total, not just concentrate on one or two particular routes.

 checkmark ....SQ has shown on its SIN-ICN-SFO route that this is not the case...

Quoting Keesje (Reply 24):
However this also was the case for BA, these theories didn´t really stick outside a.net.

...once again, like everything else above, the case for BA was only an A.net myth....
"Up the Irons!"
 
ncelhr
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 4:06 am

Clearly, you cannot just say there is one single market out there.

You will have premium passengers who will require frequency, hence the need for 787/350.
Besides that, you will have premium passengers who will require a level of luxury superior to what is out there today. Indeed, anybody who has travelled to Asia & the Middle East will understand what level of luxury those premium passengers are used to. It far exceeds the levels we have in Europe and in the US.

That said, I would find it dangerous that only one manufacturer is able to offer that kind of luxury with a business case that makes sense to airlines. Clearly, Boeing needs to crank things up and offer a rival to the A380 that airlines will want. Perhaps the attention is too focused on the 787 at the moment. My fear is that the current B748 solution suffers from two (undeserved) stigmas attached to it:

- it is still based on the 74X series, which makes it seem like old technology - just an improvement on an existing product that is now out of date.
- it has not differentiated itself enough from the offer that can be achieved through the B777. It is therefore being penalised by the current trend of airliners to replace B744s with B777s.

Add to this the double edged sword of only proposing GEnX engines, and this provides plenty of reasons for airlines to not order the B748 and go for the A380. It is a shame, because knowing the quality of Boeing's product, it is not given enough credit at the moment, or at least, not the credit that it deserves.
 
FRNT787
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 4:30 am

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 25):
Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 23):
That "uncompromised luxury" argument reminds me of the first years of the B747...premium carriers don't need an A380 in order to offer luxury to F and C class pax - it's not like a lounge area is the big deal. And with the B787 and A350 entering the market, the A380's CASM advantage will shrink. Again: the A380 may have cost advantages on particular routes, but the question is whether it's worth it for an airline to add such a type for a small number of routes.

Absolutely correct.......I think A.net is the only place on the planet where this myth exists...

I aggree as well, after all if the lounge was all important, we would have seen more than 56 377 Stratocruisers built.  Wink
"We have a right to fail, because failure makes us grow" --Glenn Beck
 
abba
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 5:28 am

Quoting Columba (Reply 1):
Honestly I hope not, they were always rumored to be a potential 747-8I customer and I hope they will order it. I doubt that they would order both and the 747-8I could use some good press.



Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 22):
I would love to see ANA buy the A380. 10 with 10 options. Fly more people into NRT, and make more money.

I am afraid that the 748 will have its most difficult market in Asia. The plane will be considered here as old-time.

Quoting Columba (Reply 3):
I agree, as soon as the A380 will enter service many airlines that have not ordered it now will place orders. ANA and JAL are most likely as well as CX.

Indeed. And I wonder why CX is not in the list - even if I am sure they will be there rather soon. And remenber that in this part of the world, frequency isn't as important as it is the US in particular. In many airports in Asia, the NBs are as rare a sight as WBs are in US airports. And many airlines in Asia are more or less WB only airlines or have only very few NBs.

Abba
 
neder99
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 6:39 am

Although they might change their policy in the future, I think many are forgetting that ANA's biggest market by far is the domestic one.
Yes, it would be great for them to have something like the A380 to haul people between HND and KIX/ITM, but lately more and more Japanese airports have become 2-engine only airports (aircraft with 3 or 4 engines aren't allowed to use them due to noise pollution).
Which is exactly why ANA sees the 777 as its main replacement of the 747 (they really only operates their 747s domestically, as everything longhaul but FRA/CDG is served by 777).
Also, while it may be a financially sound airline, it's international operations are nowhere as big as JAL's, nor does their strategy aim at outgrowing JAL internationally.
 
keesje
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 7:16 am

Quoting Neder99 (Reply 29):
Yes, it would be great for them to have something like the A380 to haul people between HND and KIX/ITM, but lately more and more Japanese airports have become 2-engine only airports (aircraft with 3 or 4 engines aren't allowed to use them due to noise pollution).

I think ANA is not looking at short haul use. BTWw I think the A380 is quieter the e.g. a B777-300ER.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
ebj1248650
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 7:23 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 14):
And the 787s/A350s will be sold or moved to the desert?

I think he's talking about the major airlines that traditionally operate very large jumbo jets (747 and larger). A380 is in a class by itself, as surely as the 787 and A350 are in a class of their own.

I remain convinced there will be large orders in the not too distant future for the 748i; if for no other reason than the fact that the A380 is just too much airplane for some airlines while the 747 is about as big as many airlines would want to go for a wide body jet.
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ikramerica
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 7:51 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 12):
The reason being that the A380 is to set new standards of F and C class seats, which are much more voluminous than what we are used to today.

This is just plain false. For example, most airlines are putting J upstairs, which is NARROWER than the 777 and about the same as the 787. Any J product there can be placed on the 777 and 787. The F suites can also be fitted to the 777, 747, 787 and A350. Only the massive aisles of the A380 main deck would be compromised.

Now whether an airlines chooses not to fit the same product across the fleet is another matter. Some may decide the A380 is the "prestige" plane, in the same way AA only has F on the 777 or EK started with F suites on the A345 only. But that's a choice based on product, not on the plane itself.

But if a competitor sees a great product on the A380, but doesn't want to buy a VLA, they can fit a similar product in a 77W
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Thorben
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 8:20 am

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 23):
Simply no. You need to take into consideration all cost factors for the airline in total, not just concentrate on one or two particular routes.

Even more to the disadvantage of the 77W, pilot costs, purchase price, etc. if you break it down to the single pax, the A380 looks way better.

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 23):
Yield...

Would you mind explaining that a little longer?

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 23):
Or where demand is high and airline can offer more frequencies - which is what premium customers want and pay for - not just for "extra luxury" (or how PR departments want to call that).

Frequency? On short-haul, but not on long-haul. Many routes only have a limited time-frame to do flights that depart and arrive at decent times, nobody wants to fly at 02:00 AM and arrive at 04:00 AM.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 32):
This is just plain false. For example, most airlines are putting J upstairs, which is NARROWER than the 777 and about the same as the 787.

Your statement is plain false. The A380 upper deck is 5.92 m wide, the 777 only 5.86m. Not much more, but the A380 has the wider cabin.

http://www.airbus.com/en/aircraftfam...lies/a380/a380/specifications.html

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/777family/pf/pf_200product.html

Besides, the main deck of the big boy ist 6.58m wide, a whole 72 cm more than the 777. 28 inches, if you prefer that. No doubt that the A380 with ten-abreast has more space then the 777 with ten, or even only nine-abreast. The 777 would need to have only eight.

Same goes for a 4-abreast first class, every A380 pax has 18cm more width.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 32):
But if a competitor sees a great product on the A380, but doesn't want to buy a VLA, they can fit a similar product in a 77W

Nope.
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WingedMigrator
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 8:44 am

Quoting Columba (Reply 1):
Air China

Honestly I hope not, they were always rumored to be a potential 747-8I customer and I hope they will order it.

Are you confusing Air China (People's Republic of China) with China Airlines (Republic of China, i.e. Taiwan) ? China Airlines definitely owes the USA a little Boeing 747-8 order Big grin

Quoting Thorben (Reply 33):
The A380 upper deck is 5.92 m wide, the 777 only 5.86m.

That's probably at elbow height. The A380 upper deck floor is only 5.28 m wide.
 
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 8:54 am

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 34):

That's probably at elbow height. The A380 upper deck floor is only 5.28 m wide.

From my point of view the floor is the widest place in the upper deck.
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bild:Airbus_A380_cross_section.svg
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birdbrainz
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 9:33 am

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 12):
In 10 years time, a long haul airline which is serving the larger airports in Asia is going to do so with A380, or they are not going to do so at all.

Sounds just like the prediction that LHR would ultimately go all widebody, as slots are too precious.

The enthusiasm for the A380 will depend on how well it works logistically (loading, etc.). If the infrastructure can't keep up, you may have premium passengers dreading it. Time will tell.

I bet a lot of folks never saw narrowbodys dominating the US transcon market 20 years ago. Once again, the trend is to smaller, not bigger. The transatlantic 757 reinforces that.

Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 27):
I aggree as well, after all if the lounge was all important, we would have seen more than 56 377 Stratocruisers built. Wink

I'm wondering if the lounge is so important given all of the amenities of the new F seats. Time will tell.

The A380 will have its place and will probably be successful, but it won't obsolete other aircraft.
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Pohakuloa
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 9:44 am

I must say, even though it may be in my own little corner of the world, but I think this makes some economical sense for ANA or any japanese carrier. I say this because the amount of JAL (and its variations) 747's come into HNL on an almost (almost, not always) daily basis from either tokyo or osaka. and they all arrive within a couple of hours of each other. so to me, it would make better economic sense to fly just one or two A380's instead of 5-10 (depending on the time of year and day of the week) 747's. They all leave within 2 hours of each other on the return trip from HNL. IMO, that would make much more economic sense. Of course, looking up info on the A380 and the runways @ HNL, the A380 would be stretching the the very limits of the runways capacities weight wise for 8L, although it is technically possible. And even though it may never come to HNL in the near or distant future or ever, one can always keep his fingers crossed!
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jacobin777
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 9:55 am

If NH isn't going for yield then why are they downguaging from a B

Quoting Thorben (Reply 33):
Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 23):
Simply no. You need to take into consideration all cost factors for the airline in total, not just concentrate on one or two particular routes.

Even more to the disadvantage of the 77W, pilot costs, purchase price, etc. if you break it down to the single pax, the A380 looks way better.

....its all about CASM and RASM/yields mate...that's all included when you make the comparison.....

Also, why are carriers such as NH and JL downgauging from a B744 to a B773ER on one of the most slot-restricted routes in the world?

Simple...better RASM and yield... yes 

..now to finish installing Ubuntu on my laptop.. biggrin  (I've made the same statement on the other thread too-thank goodness for "copy and paste"... bigthumbsup  )
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ktachiya
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 11:37 am

The BA order could potentially affect NH.

Since BA ordered it, they will fly it between NRT-LHR. If that happens and BA is succesful in getting more business pax on their planes, then NH could see it as a threat. KE would also fly it between ICN-NRT and then furthermore build their ICN hub. Then SQ would also fly the bird to NRT.

It is just my opinion but airlines not ordering the A380 kind of looks like the problem that stemmed from heaps of airlines ordering the B747-100 when it first came out and then getting rid of it later because it didn't fit their needs. Large airlines like CO, AA and DL? ordered it and later found out that the capacity was too big for its routes and got rid of it. Can this be a reason why the airlines are currently refraining from ordering the A380?
Flown on: DC-10-30, B747-200B, B747-300, B747-300SR, B747-400, B747-400D, B767-300, B777-200, B777-200ER, B777-300
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 11:59 am

Quoting Thorben (Reply 35):
From my point of view the floor is the widest place in the upper deck.
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bild:Ai...n.svg

Funny you should bring up that cross section diagram... I created it Big grin

The floor is 5.28 m or 208 inches wide. (Check for yourself in the Airbus ACAP documentation). There is extra width at elbow height, as shown in the cross section, and as seen in the photo below:
View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Gerhard Vysocan - Aviation Art Photography - VAP



Your 5.92 m measurement is either (a) the widest point in the cabin, just above the shelf under the windows, yielding an extra 32 cm on each side, or (b) a typo that should really be 5.29 m
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 3:51 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 33):
Even more to the disadvantage of the 77W, pilot costs, purchase price, etc. if you break it down to the single pax, the A380 looks way better.

Wait - is that the reason why the A380 is such a best seller and the B77W and B787 are not?  Yeah sure

Quoting Thorben (Reply 33):
Would you mind explaining that a little longer?

Jacobin did already. NH and JL have been dumping capacity and discounted Eco seats, concentrating on yields.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 33):
Frequency? On short-haul, but not on long-haul. Many routes only have a limited time-frame to do flights that depart and arrive at decent times, nobody wants to fly at 02:00 AM and arrive at 04:00 AM.

First of all, the departure and arrival times you mention do exist - and some carriers are quite successful with offering them. Additionally, even if you have a limited time frame (e.g. Europe-Asia routes), you could add frequencies relatively close to each other.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 33):
Besides, the main deck of the big boy ist 6.58m wide, a whole 72 cm more than the 777. 28 inches, if you prefer that. No doubt that the A380 with ten-abreast has more space then the 777 with ten, or even only nine-abreast. The 777 would need to have only eight.

Same goes for a 4-abreast first class, every A380 pax has 18cm more width.

Which specific operator are you referring to? Or do you generalize about everyone? And since when have Eco cabins been the key for factor for profits?

Quoting Thorben (Reply 33):
Nope.

Sure they can.


PH
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columba
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 5:57 pm

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 34):
Are you confusing Air China (People's Republic of China) with China Airlines (Republic of China, i.e. Taiwan) ? China Airlines definitely owes the USA a little Boeing 747-8 order Big grin

Yes indeed thank you  Smile
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SA7700
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 6:52 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 33):
Even more to the disadvantage of the 77W, pilot costs, purchase price, etc. if you break it down to the single pax, the A380 looks way better.

Now where exactly does this leave airlines, like SA, with their "so-called gas-guzzling" 4-hole A340's?


Rgds

SA7700
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Thorben
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 7:01 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 38):
....its all about CASM and RASM/yields mate...that's all included when you make the comparison.....

Also, why are carriers such as NH and JL downgauging from a B744 to a B773ER on one of the most slot-restricted routes in the world?

Simple...better RASM and yield... yes

They simply replaced the older 744 with the newer 77W, which makes sense, because the 77W is soooo fuel-efficient, as a lot of people never get tired mentioning. It has lower fuel costs, and probably lower maintenance costs, both total and per seat-mile. Pilot CASM is actually higher, lading fees, cabin crew etc. might actually be around the same for both planes. So the lower CASM is because of the better airplane, and the capacity reduction was a side-effect, because the 77W is smaller than the 744, of which there is no same-size replacement. If JL and NH had the choice between a 77W exactly the 744 capacity, and the real one, I do not see why they would not have taken the 744-size version.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 40):
The floor is 5.28 m or 208 inches wide. (Check for yourself in the Airbus ACAP documentation).

Give me a link.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 40):
There is extra width at elbow height, as shown in the cross section, and as seen in the photo below:

That sideboard is not even 15cm wide, and if that sidewall is not straight, it is even less away from the edge of the floor. With 15 cm (generous estimate) on each side, the floor would be 5.62m, which is a little less that the T7, but at eight abreast still more spacious than the T7 with nine-abreast.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 40):
Your 5.92 m measurement is either (a) the widest point in the cabin, just above the shelf under the windows, yielding an extra 32 cm on each side, or (b) a typo that should really be 5.29 m

That shelf is not 32cm wide. Maybe a typo and it is really 2.59 m?

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 41):
You are claiming that a BUSINESS CLASS SEAT.. is as wide a bank of 3 17.2" seats in Y class. I must have missed when airlines started using full on couches for single seats.

So?

View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Andrew Hunt - AirTeamImages



Four per row in a T7, and the A380 has the wider cabin. When the A380 has four, the T7 needs to get three, in order to have a similar (or wider) seat.

Quoting XT6Wagon (Reply 41):
Anyway, I find it interesting that so many praise the forced "luxury" of the A380 as a benefit, instead of a very real downside in that the Airlines do NOT have the option of running a higher density, yet still acceptable seat width in the A380. Couple that with the high structural weight and you have a plane that is going to truly STINK at short haul "domestic" service. Which is fine since the 747 has prevent that using a VLA of any kind as such is a bad idea.

Well, you can put 853 seats in it, which would require a ten-abreast in the main deck (which is 50cm wider than the 747 cabin) and 8-abreast in the upper deck (of which the width still needs to be determined, but surely more width per seat than an 9-abreast T7). With that, it would still have a decent range.


Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 42):
Wait - is that the reason why the A380 is such a best seller and the B77W and B787 are not? Yeah sure

 yawn  Are there any A350s in the desert, yet?

A 787 could fly any route an A380 could, but not the other way. Besides, smaller planes have a tendency to sell larger number than bigger planes. And the A380 has other issues, it is new, big, less flexible etc.

However, within the next ten years the A380 might actually outsell the 77W.

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 42):
Jacobin did already. NH and JL have been dumping capacity and discounted Eco seats, concentrating on yields.

They have been reducing fuel costs and as a side-effect their capacity dropped.

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 42):
First of all, the departure and arrival times you mention do exist - and some carriers are quite successful with offering them.

Because they fly neither premium pax nor premium airports with no night flights (like FRA).

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 42):
Additionally, even if you have a limited time frame (e.g. Europe-Asia routes), you could add frequencies relatively close to each other.

Creating incredible additional benefit.  sarcastic 

Really, when you go to Australia, does it matter that there is another flight 30 minutes later?

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 42):
Which specific operator are you referring to? Or do you generalize about everyone?

No, I was talking about SQ, which has four seats per row in the first class in both the A380 (6.58m) and the 77W (5.86m). Ain't there a difference?  scratchchin 

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 42):
And since when have Eco cabins been the key for factor for profits?

They will be, because most people would prefer to have 7cm more seat width on a 12-hour flight in economy class. So if the average economy class flyer goes from Europe to Australia, he'd certainly prefer ten-abreast in the A380 over ten- or nine-abreast in the 777.

Quoting PlaneHunter (Reply 42):
Sure they can.

Yes, you can put those seats in an E-Jet, if you like, but certainly not with the CASM of an A380, the RASM of an A380, or the overall profitability of an A380. Actually, you have to make it so expensive that you would have only 3 passengers, or fill the plane at prices that do not pay the costs. There are many things one can do, but not all are useful.
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Thorben
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 7:08 pm

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 44):
Now where exactly does this leave airlines, like SA, with their "so-called gas-guzzling" 4-hole A340's?

There is no such thing as a gas-guzzling A340. Unless it gets an after-burner.

SA was replacing old 747s with A340s. A very good move, indeed, because the A340s have lower fuel, maintenance, etc. costs than those 747s. The A380 might be an option for them, if they can fill it, which I see mainly for the LHR route, maybe also FRA.

The questions still is, will they get A345 for their USA operations?
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
SA7700
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 7:20 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 33):
Even more to the disadvantage of the 77W, pilot costs, purchase price, etc. if you break it down to the single pax, the A380 looks way better.



Quoting Thorben (Reply 46):
There is no such thing as a gas-guzzling A340. Unless it gets an after-burner. SA was replacing old 747s with A340s. A very good move, indeed, because the A340s have lower fuel, maintenance, etc. costs than those 747s

Thanks for the reply, but where does the A346 for instance come in, when you compare the 77W with the A380? The A346 and 77W are afterall direct competitors?  Confused


Thanks

SA7700
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
Thorben
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 7:51 pm

Quoting SA7700 (Reply 46):
Thanks for the reply, but where does the A346 for instance come in, when you compare the 77W with the A380? The A346 and 77W are afterall direct competitors? Confused

Compared to the A380, the A346 has similar advantages/disadvantages like the 77W. Maybe even a little more, since its cabin is even less wide.

77W and A346 are direct competitors, although they have their differences, the 777 has more cabin space, a little more payload, but less range at max. payload. A lot of people here will say the 77W was incredibly more efficient, but that is when you calculate only pax figures, where the 777 has the advantage of more cabin space. If you look at payload (pax+cargo), the fuel burn is around the same over a similar range. The A346 can't be that bad, see TG, LH, and especially EY, who operates both and re-ordered the A346 instead of the 77W.
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
SA7700
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 8:13 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 47):
Compared to the A380, the A346 has similar advantages/disadvantages like the 77W. Maybe even a little more, since its cabin is even less wide.

Thanks for the explanation. Much appreciated  Smile


Rgds

SA7700
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: All Nippon : 1st Japanese A380 Operator?

Sun Sep 30, 2007 9:08 pm

Quoting Thorben (Reply 44):
They simply replaced the older 744 with the newer 77W, which makes sense, because the 77W is soooo fuel-efficient, as a lot of people never get tired mentioning.

It IS fuel-efficient - no need to get ironic about it.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 44):
If JL and NH had the choice between a 77W exactly the 744 capacity, and the real one, I do not see why they would not have taken the 744-size version.

The reason could be concentrating on yields, dropping discounted Eco seats. If you can fill a B744 and enjoy good yields throughout the cabin you don't need to switch to the B77W.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 44):
However, within the next ten years the A380 might actually outsell the 77W.

Yes, probably, but not because of the A380 itself, but because of the availability of new generation twinjets.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 44):
They have been reducing fuel costs and as a side-effect their capacity dropped.

You fail to see that many operators have only flown B747s for decades because of range - not because of capacity. Dropping discounted Eco seats can help to increase yields.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 44):
Because they fly neither premium pax nor premium airports with no night flights (like FRA).

EK, EY, QR or SQ don't fly premium pax? And DXB and SIN aren't "premium" airports?

Quoting Thorben (Reply 44):
Creating incredible additional benefit.

The benefit is flexibility and reliability. If the large four-hauler faces a technical problem, you have 450-500 stranded pax. If one twinjet goes tech, you still have the second flight and could transfer a least a part of your best paying customers, while offering Eco pax on discount tickets a relatively cheap compensation. And the twinjets are less likely to be grounded than four-haulers.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 44):
Really, when you go to Australia, does it matter that there is another flight 30 minutes later?

Not for Eco travellers on discounted tickets.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 44):
No, I was talking about SQ, which has four seats per row in the first class in both the A380 (6.58m) and the 77W (5.86m). Ain't there a difference?

The question is how exactly the seats/suites are built and space is used. It may be a significant difference on the paper, but not in reality.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 44):
They will be, because most people would prefer to have 7cm more seat width on a 12-hour flight in economy class. So if the average economy class flyer goes from Europe to Australia, he'd certainly prefer ten-abreast in the A380 over ten- or nine-abreast in the 777.

The question is whether you really get 7 cm more? And if pax get more space - do they realize it? How many pax check a site like airliners.net before booking a flight? Price is much more important to the average pax (especially those flying on relatively cheap - or even subsidized - Eco tickets). Why do you think EK is not only able to put 10 seats into the B777 but also able to fill them?

Quoting Thorben (Reply 44):
Yes, you can put those seats in an E-Jet, if you like, but certainly not with the CASM of an A380, the RASM of an A380, or the overall profitability of an A380.



Quoting Thorben (Reply 44):
Actually, you have to make it so expensive that you would have only 3 passengers, or fill the plane at prices that do not pay the costs. There are many things one can do, but not all are useful.

You still fail to understand my point. Even if the A380 may offer advantages for an airline on a specific route, or two or three (e.g. for ANA on NRT-LHR) - does it justify to introduce a new type along with all its costs? They will do the maths and most carriers will decide to standardize on smaller aircraft.

Quoting Thorben (Reply 47):
A lot of people here will say the 77W was incredibly more efficient, but that is when you calculate only pax figures, where the 777 has the advantage of more cabin space. If you look at payload (pax+cargo), the fuel burn is around the same over a similar range. The A346 can't be that bad, see TG, LH, and especially EY, who operates both and re-ordered the A346 instead of the 77W.

Forget about these examples when defending the A346. Why LH is satisfied with the bird has been discussed hundreds of times. TG is definitely not a great example for wise fleet planning and EY has introduced a mix of types because of its rapid growth. And we shouldn't forget that an airline such as EY is heavily funded by its oil-rich government. The sales figures of the B77W speak for themselves - and apart from that it tells a lot when Airbus customers with A340 fleets also switch to B77Ws instead of A345/A346.


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!

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