victor009
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787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 10:02 am

Hi guys,

Found an artice on 787 on the likely delay of 6 months in the delivery of the aircraft to its first customer ANA and knock on effects.



Link to the article:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/334520_planeorders06.html


Regards
VJC
XWB- The one to fly.
 
ebbuk
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 11:11 am

it would seem commercial pressures have led both manufacturers to give undeliverable EIS dates.

Maybe it is high time, plane building was given back to the people who know best and not the bean counters!
 
sandrozrh
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 11:26 am

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 1):
it would seem commercial pressures have led both manufacturers to give undeliverable EIS dates.

Plus, tapping a new technology doen't help either, as there can always be unexpected complications.

Let's see what happens, one single newspaper article won't convince me.

Needles to say, if it happens, some people around here will denie it, even when we'll be four months into the delay  Wink
 
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robffm2
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 11:39 am

It's somehow strange that this article has not been discussed here earlier, given that it's at least 1 day old:

Quote:
Last updated October 5, 2007 8:05 p.m. PT
6-month delay seen for 787 delivery
 
OHLHD
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 11:42 am

Rather have it delayed then unsafe.

New aircrafts need more time than estimated. Airbus learned that lesson and Boeing will it too.  Smile
 
patroni
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 11:43 am

Quoting EbbUK (Reply 1):
Maybe it is high time, plane building was given back to the people who know best and not the bean counters!

Don't blame the bean counters for that... these announcements and promises to customers come from marketing people with an over-optimistic high-level perspective, trusting that any problems on the way will be solved "somehow" by "someone"  Wink
 
TheSonntag
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 11:44 am

Quoting OHLHD (Reply 4):
Rather have it delayed then unsafe.

So true. I wonder why they had such an unrealistic schedule in the first place anyway. But I am sure they will not only solve the problems, they will deliver the plane with the promised data...
 
jasond
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 12:20 pm

Or simply an interesting tactic on Boeing's behalf, promise an early EIS on the back of Airbus's A380 woes, bring in the orders (which it clearly has), then deliver ONLY a few comfortable months later than originally planned  Wink
 
avek00
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 12:26 pm

Hmph -- so many wanted to jump at my throat (and indeed the throats of many a.netters) at our belief that a 6 month (and possibly longer) EIS delay was inevitable for the 787.

It wasn't meant to be a knock on Boeing or the 787 -- which I am eagerly waiting to fly on -- but rather a conclusion based on the premise that Boeing would ultimately not feel comfortable with a testing programme that deviates substantially from established practices for technical and legal reasons.
Live life to the fullest.
 
B747forever
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 12:48 pm

Quoting Jasond (Reply 7):
Or simply an interesting tactic on Boeing's behalf, promise an early EIS on the back of Airbus's A380 woes, bring in the orders (which it clearly has), then deliver ONLY a few comfortable months later than originally planned

Can they really do like that????
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
Beaucaire
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 12:48 pm

Quoting TheSonntag (Reply 6):
But I am sure they will not only solve the problems, they will deliver the plane with the promised data...

Ihr Glaube in Gottes Hände..
It's about time people stop talking BS about the 787 and become realists.
We have a situation where a 700+ orderbook is currently handicaped by a completely uncapable supply and manufacturing shedule. Nobody dares to say the truth because of stock-market implications.
Boeing will pull it off -yes - no doubts!
When will they pull it off ? - the management knows but doen't dare to tell the truth .
Flight-testplanning is utterly unrealistic considering the current hick-ups and persistent issues with suppliers (Alcoa,Alenia,Flightsoftware??)-so let's spit it out and concede a 9 month delay (at least ).
Please respect animals - don't eat them...
 
globeex
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 1:02 pm

Quoting Beaucaire (Reply 10):
When will they pull it off ? - the management knows but doen't dare to tell the truth .

Well taken they know more... question is, when does it cross the line where it becomes illegal.....

GlobeEx
As you may presently yourself be fully made aware of, my grammar sucks.
 
Thorben
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 1:11 pm

First of all, I must say this is a very good article, the way it is written and how it describes a lot of issues in easy language.

Boeing now faces major hurdles:

a) getting the first plane to fly, complete the flight schedule, and do the EIS

b) ramping up production

both are very difficult, given the problems mentioned in the article. Delays seem inevitable, but airlines will have built themselves a plan for a situation like that, because new planes aren't safe from delays.
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 1:12 pm

Just makes it that much easier for Boeing to sell 1000 787s before EIS, which is the metric folks will remember through history, not that she was late.  thumbsup 
 
BestWestern
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 1:30 pm

Will the aircraft be flying in Asia in time for the Olympics?
You are 100 times more likely to catch a cold on a flight than an average person!
 
Rheinbote
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 1:30 pm

Quoting Robffm2 (Reply 3):
It's somehow strange that this article has not been discussed here earlier, given that it's at least 1 day old:

It was discussed earlier:
787 Status? (by Tonytifao Sep 27 2007 in Civil Aviation)

Quoting GlobeEx (Reply 15):
Well taken they know more... question is, when does it cross the line where it becomes illegal.....

It won't. If you listened to the previous analyst webcasts, the Boeing top brass was careful enough to use phraes like "we are still confident" or "we think" or "we still aim at"...

That said, a sober analysis based on what knowledge is 'out in the industry' indeed suggests a 4-6 month delay for 1st delivery. But as others have pointed out in the other thread, what really matters is the impact on the overall ramp-up with 112 deliveries planned until end of 2009. If they can make that, everything else will be forgotten quickly - except for the usual 'Incredibles'-style anecdotes how all the nagging problems were finally overcome  

[Edited 2007-10-07 06:34:26]
 
sparkingwave
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 1:34 pm

As we have seen with the A380, it doesn't really matter these days if an airplane's EIS is delayed or not. What are the airlines gonna do anyway? Cancel orders? They'll risk losing their competitive edge.

6 months doesn't even seem all that bad, compared to Airbus' 2 year delay. The 787 still comes out smelling like a rose.
Flights to the moon and all major space stations. At Pan Am, the sky is no longer the limit!
 
B747forever
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 1:52 pm

Quoting Sparkingwave (Reply 20):
6 months doesn't even seem all that bad, compared to Airbus' 2 year delay. The 787 still comes out smelling like a rose.

Okey 6months is not sop bad, but it is always better to have the a/c ready on the date you say. Not as Airbus and the A380.
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
victor009
Posts: 62
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 2:05 pm

Listen guys,
Lets not compare airplanes and manufacturers here,

A plane is a very complicated thing to built over that these are new ones, so no one knows how to do it right the first time.
Airbus has learnt it already and its actually given them a good lesson and also a great advantage in getting rid of their dual heads , cutting costs etc etc and more is that the A380 is the most mature aircraft to enter into commercial service.

Its Boeing's turn to learn and i guess we should leave to them, though i am a die hard Airbus fan, i guess boeing deserves a pat on the back and some great appreciation for doin their good job.

So lets us all just wait and watch, people who have to do will do whatever they have to do and not what we have to say.

Regards
VJC
XWB- The one to fly.
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 2:12 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 17):
Will the aircraft be flying in Asia in time for the Olympics?

I am sure it will, as it can be argued the most important metric for Boeing to meet is to get LN008 into Air China's hands for Beijing. I would expect, push come to shove, Boeing will give Air China LN008 before they give NH LN007.

Airbus will lose face because China Southern will not have the A388 at Beijing 2008. That is something Boeing will not want to do if they can at all help it, as it will come into play in future orders from China.
 
sh0rtybr0wn
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:05 pm

This delay is hilarious, because now Boeing fans "understand" how this could happen to the A380. When Airbus delayed the A380 for another 6 months it was collapse, disaster, apocalypse. But now with the 787, six months is no problem. It makes me laugh.
Last summer in 2006 everybody was at each others throats and Airbus fans got a raw deal with some of the most brutal criticism on the A380 and the EADS company.
If the A380 and 787 had experienced delays at the same time, there would have been much less bickering and posturing.

All these delays cut the A350 XWB a lot of slack. If that presumably great plane is late 6 months, nobody will even raise an eyebrow.
 
Carls
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:07 pm

[quote=Stitch,reply=19][/quote

Stich, why you always put things Airbus vs Boeing? B won because this or that. Boeing is struggled with the 787 debacle and Airbus already passed trough it with the A380. Both are marvelous aircraft, in my opinion.
Instead of keep looking to see how we can make Airbus looks bad, let's hope Boeing can address all the issues with their 787 and put it on the air.

Let's try to keep Airbus out of this thread to see if we can enjoy it.

Few days ago was with the A350, now this.

[Edited 2007-10-07 08:08:39]

[Edited 2007-10-07 08:10:15]
 
MD-90
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:27 pm

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 20):
When Airbus delayed the A380 for another 6 months it was collapse, disaster, apocalypse. But now with the 787, six months is no problem. It makes me laugh.

Six months versus two years is an enormous difference.
 
astuteman
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:29 pm

Quoting Sparkingwave (Reply 16):
As we have seen with the A380, it doesn't really matter these days if an airplane's EIS is delayed or not. What are the airlines gonna do anyway? Cancel orders? They'll risk losing their competitive edge.

 checkmark 
Airbus and the A380 have survived a c. 2 year delay. Boeing and the 787 will survive a 6 month delay, should it materialise. I'm sure any delays will matter immensely to the airlines affected, but the 787 is such a step change in capability/economics, I can't imagine any serious orders being at risk.

Quoting Victor009 (Reply 18):
Airbus has learnt it already and its actually given them a good lesson and also a great advantage in getting rid of their dual heads , cutting costs etc etc

In extremis is the best place to REALLY learn about your business, and these businesses shouldn't be afraid of it.

Quoting Victor009 (Reply 18):
Its Boeing's turn to learn and i guess we should leave to them, though i am a die hard Airbus fan, i guess boeing deserves a pat on the back and some great appreciation for doin their good job.

Couldn't have put it better myself  thumbsup   Smile
Personally I'll still consider a 6 month programme delay on the 787 an astonishing achievement, by Boeing, and will duly tip my hat.

Quoting Carls (Reply 21):
Stich, why you always put things Airbus vs Boeing?

FWIW Stitch has persistently been one of the staunchest defenders of the A380 (and its programme) during its troubles, despite being a self-declared Boeing fan. And has earned my personal respect and gratitude in the process  thumbsup .
I'm hoping that the A-net community, including "self-declared" Airbus fans (such as myself) can display the same generosity (as illustrated by Victor009 above) to the ground-breaking 787

Regards
 
cloudyapple
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:43 pm

Quoting MD-90 (Reply 22):
Six months versus two years is an enormous difference.

It started off being a 6 month delay for the A380 and gradually grew to 2 years. I wonder if the B787 will follow in A380's "footsteps"...
A310/A319/20/21/A332/3/A343/6/A388/B732/5/7/8/B742/S/4/B752/B763/B772/3/W/E145/J41/MD11/83/90
 
B747forever
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 3:59 pm

Quoting Cloudyapple (Reply 24):
It started off being a 6 month delay for the A380 and gradually grew to 2 years. I wonder if the B787 will follow in A380's "footsteps"...

I dont think that Boeing and the 787 will be delayed as the A380. To many customer waiting on the a/c.
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
BrianDromey
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 4:13 pm

Personnally, it seems like Boeing have not learned from the lessons of the 747 (or ahve forgotten them).

Maybe EIS will be 6 months delayed (but I think 9-12 months delayed is more realistic), I just think that Boeing will have problems with software which might prove difficult to resolve. Also bearing in ming that LN 001 has not yet been completed...it should have been flying by now. I cant see the flight test programme getting shorter, but longer, if any adjustments are required.

But EIS wont be the make or break issue with the 787. The aircraft, like the A380 will be certified and ready to go, but production problems will cripple the programme for however long it takes Boeing and their suppliers to sort out supply problems and quality control. Like it or not, those are the tow jokers in the pack that Boeing would rather not have been delt.

That said, when airlines do, finally get their hands on their new toy, Im sure they will love it, as will the passengers.

Brian.
Next flights: MAN-ORK-LHR(EI)-MAN(BD); MAN-LHR(BD)-ORK (EI); DUB-ZRH-LAX (LX) LAX-YYZ (AC) YYZ-YHZ-LHR(AC)-DUB(BD)
 
ytib
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 4:14 pm

Quoting B747forever (Reply 25):
I dont think that Boeing and the 787 will be delayed as the A380. To many customer waiting on the a/c.

The fact there are many customers waiting does not mean it will not experience a further delay. The bottom line as stated before is safety, and without the aircraft having flown yet we don't know what else is waiting down the road. Keep in mind when a lot of the delays were announced for the A380, and have we reach that timeframe for the B787? No one likes delays, however when you are dealing with a project of this size, they will exist in most instances. The problem is that throwing more bodies in the mix, does not always help resolve the delay as well and only adds to it.

Hopefully it will not go further than this, but time will tell... and then again won't Boeing look good if they do exceed this latest delay possibility.
 
babybus
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 4:18 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 13):
which is the metric folks will remember through history, not that she was late.

No, I will remember her for being late.

Lateness isn't a marketing tool. Big grin
and with that..cabin crew, seats for landing please.
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 4:22 pm

Quoting Carls (Reply 21):
Stich, why you always put things Airbus vs Boeing?

You are evidently not familiar with my posting history on this forum, sir.  Smile If you were, it should be pretty clear that I do not engage in "A vs. B" debates except to repudiate them.

When I say Airbus "lost face" with China, it's not meant to denigrate Airbus. The Chinese place a great deal of emphasis and import on such things when it comes to business and personal dealings. It is very important to the Chinese leadership to have China perceived as a "first tier world power" at the Games and part of how they will do that is through commercial aviation.

Having the A380 and the 787 present (either in a flyover of the stadium during the Opening Ceremonies or just by having them bring people into PEK) was important to them. Airbus not being able to deliver is going to hurt them a bit in the eyes of the Chinese government, especially when airlines like SQ and EK will likely send their A388s to PEK.

Will they never sell another plane in China? Of course not. But the Chinese use aircraft orders to show both who is "in favor" and who "is not in favor" - witness Boeing only getting half their 150 unit 737 order in 2005 booked in 2005 which allowed Airbus, who the Chinese allowed to book their entire 150 unit A320 order, to win the orders race that year.

A Boeing 787 in revenue service with a Chinese airline at the Games is going to be a PR coup for Boeing. And the Seattle Post-Intelligencer is not the only periodical to note this. And getting that plane into revenue service in time for the games could be "rewarded" with additional 787 sales in the near term.
 
avek00
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 4:34 pm

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 20):
This delay is hilarious, because now Boeing fans "understand" how this could happen to the A380. When Airbus delayed the A380 for another 6 months it was collapse, disaster, apocalypse. But now with the 787, six months is no problem. It makes me laugh.
Last summer in 2006 everybody was at each others throats and Airbus fans got a raw deal with some of the most brutal criticism on the A380 and the EADS company.
If the A380 and 787 had experienced delays at the same time, there would have been much less bickering and posturing.

All these delays cut the A350 XWB a lot of slack. If that presumably great plane is late 6 months, nobody will even raise an eyebrow.



Let's not mix apples and oranges here.

The A380 delay and the "likely" 787 delay frankly aren't comparable at all but for the delay itself. Breakdowns in the supply-chain are bad, but are also somewhat foreseeable when building a complex jetliner; OTOH, having to resdesign and rebuild entire aircraft sections because some French and German engineers and managers had their heads too far up their rears to coordinate essential computer programs is plain inexcusable.

[Edited 2007-10-07 09:37:47]
Live life to the fullest.
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 4:52 pm

Quoting BrianDromey (Reply 26):
The aircraft, like the A380 will be certified and ready to go, but production problems will cripple the programme for however long it takes Boeing and their suppliers to sort out supply problems and quality control.

You are (at least) the second person to bring this "issue" up, yet official reports from the suppliers is that they are tracking closer and closer to "program norms" when it comes to quality and completeness of their sub-assemblies. LN0001 being in shambles has helped them train their people on getting LN0002, LN0003 and LN0004 "right" from the get-go and should reduce the amount of "traveling work" Boeing machinists have to do at 40-26 to get the planes assembled.
 
ANCFlyer
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RE: 787, A Possible 6 Month Delay

Sun Oct 07, 2007 5:34 pm

Thread Topic discussed in depth in this thread.
787 Status? (by Tonytifao Sep 27 2007 in Civil Aviation)

I'll lock this since there's valuable info herein.
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