CptRegionalJet
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Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Mon Oct 08, 2007 3:22 pm

Hello everybody.This is my first post on A-net 
I just checked the first pictures of the new Sukhoi Superjet.It's a good looking plane and the similarity to the Do728 design is evident.
I also read about it that it features many "western style" avionics and systems.The price of it is nearly unbeatable and a big plus in today's price conscious market.Just out of interst,how do you rate it's chances on the worldwide market?

[Edited 2007-10-08 08:26:58]

[Edited 2007-10-08 08:28:47]
 
DYflyer
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Mon Oct 08, 2007 5:36 pm

Quoting CptRegionalJet (Thread starter):
Hello everybody.This is my first post on A-net 

Welcome!

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 1):
looking back Russian aviation's quality of construction and flight ability have something in question

Actually the build quality is very good. They are usually build "like a tank". The problem has been more on the maintenance and operation part. The reason for western airlines not to buy these planes has often been high fuel-consumption and lack of spare-parts and support.

I think the Superjet might have a chance in the western market. The Russians have learned, and have had western airlines in the user-forum when they designed this plane. As you mentions it has western engines, and has an Italian partner for the support of western airlines. Sukhoi is still having to work hard to get that first big western order, but if it then proves successful many more orders might follow. I think the Superjet has the best chance ever for a plane built in the former Soviet to succeed in the west.
Life is like a book. If you don't travel, you only read one page.
 
Rbgso
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Mon Oct 08, 2007 6:34 pm

I know that Russian manufacturing has come a long way. The market perception always takes longer, in some case very much longer, to change.

Tha being said, given the growth in low cost carriers around the world, I wouldn't be surprised if some European or Asian carrier (or start-up, for that matter) gives this plane a shot. If they get a fantastic deal and the operating economics work, why not?.

I do wish them well, but I do suspect it will be a long time before any Russian civilian aircraft shows up in a North American fleet.
 
srbmod
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Mon Oct 08, 2007 7:41 pm

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 5):
Superjet100=Do728

A bit hard to compare the Superjet 100 to a plane that never got past the mockup stage. The Embraer E-Jets family is a more appropriate comparison.

If the Superjet 100 makes it into the fleet of a major European airline (which is a very distinct possibility), it may have a chance in the Western world. Boeing wouldn't have gotten involved in it if they didn't think the Western market would be interested in it. I think Boeing will definitely try to market it to some of their own customers as well.

If the backlog for E-Jets gets deep enough, and the CSeries keeps getting delayed past 2013, that could work to the advantage of Sukhoi. The Superjet 100 family is in the same pax range as the E-Jets, but really only competes with the proposed C-110, as due to Boeing's involvement, the Superjet 100 will not exceed a capacity of 110 pax.
 
pilotpip
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Mon Oct 08, 2007 7:46 pm

The jet has a chance if it can compete economically with the others in the market. However it's rare that more than two manufacturers have had comparable designs at the same time that have done well. In the past it was MDD and Boeing with Lockheed, Fokker and others trying to join the fun. Today it's Boeing and Airbus building the big guys, with Bombardier and Embraer owning the smaller segment. It's going to be very difficult for Sukhoi.
DMI
 
FRNT787
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Mon Oct 08, 2007 7:58 pm

Quoting DYflyer (Reply 2):
I think the Superjet has the best chance ever for a plane built in the former Soviet to succeed in the west.

True, right now alot of airlines around the world are looking to replacing jets of this size category, but Sukhoi will have to market the plane very heavily.

Is Boeing's involvement simply that of an Advisor?
"We have a right to fail, because failure makes us grow" --Glenn Beck
 
oldeuropean
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Mon Oct 08, 2007 8:33 pm

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 5):
IL96=A340

The IL96 is a derivative of the IL86, which is much older (announced 1971, first flight 1976!) than the A340.

Axel
Wer nichts weiss muss alles glauben
 
ORDagent
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Mon Oct 08, 2007 8:45 pm

IIRC Boeing is helping in post sales support and maintenance networks for the aircraft. This is vital as the airline needs to be reassured that once the aircraft is purchased proper support post purchase is vital. IMHO this aircraft has the best chance of breaking into the global market of any Russian aircraft.

I hope it works! Despite the constant accusations of "copycat" designs they former USSR had a massive R&D effort. Lets not forget that the reason for the similarities was due to the fact that the airliners were needed for similar missions.
 
mrocktor
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Mon Oct 08, 2007 8:51 pm

Quoting DYflyer (Reply 2):
I think the Superjet might have a chance in the western market.

This may very well be true.

I predict lots of fun at the WTO. With Russia's recent backslide into the bad days of authoritarian government, things could get "interesting".
 
PavlovsDog
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Mon Oct 08, 2007 8:52 pm

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 5):
TU154 =B727

Why not use the Trident as a comparison. It flew a year before the Boeing. So it should be Trident=B727=Tu-154

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 5):
IL96=A340

The IL-96 is a stretched and modernized design based on the IL-86 which first flew in 1980 a full 11 years before the 340.

Quoting Dougbr2006 (Reply 5):
Superjet100=Do728

Last time I checked the SuperJet is the first design to come to market with a 5 abreast fuselage and engines under the wings. Others (Shorts for example and Bombaridier with the C-series) have tried but failed to make it to market with a similar product. If the C-Series comes to market is it a copy of the SuperJet?

Don't forget the Russians were the first out in space. Is the entire American (and subsequent Chinese and European space efforts) mere copies of the Soviets?
 
RussianJet
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Mon Oct 08, 2007 8:58 pm

Quoting Oldeuropean (Reply 11):
The IL96 is a derivative of the IL86, which is much older (announced 1971, first flight 1976!) than the A340.

Forget facts and logic, it's no use. You'll never get of the facile claims of Russian copying banded around so freely just because some aircraft happen to share a similar engine configuration or size.
✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
 
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RayChuang
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Mon Oct 08, 2007 10:12 pm

I think with Sukhoi now using more or less Western-style production techniques, the Superjet 100 could actually be a major success, especially in the Third World where local authorities have finally realized that flying older planes aren't safe anymore and are now demanding new-build planes. (This is especially true in Africa, where in the past 3-4 years there has been a serious crackdown on flying older planes.)
 
Rbgso
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Mon Oct 08, 2007 10:44 pm

What is the "list" price of this plane vs. the list of the other RJs out there? I know, nobody pays list, but I am curious.
 
TomB
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Mon Oct 08, 2007 11:18 pm

The E-190AR and the SSJ100-95LR have many similar design characterisitics. Both are low wing regional aircraft with medium bypass turbofan engines mounted beneath the wing. Both are designed to carry 98 passengers at a cruise speed of Mach .78 with a maximum range of 4260-4420 kms. Both offer similar passenger comfort with 20"+/- aisles and seats that are 18.3"+/- wide.

The E-190AR has four abreast seating with a long, thin fuselage and the SSJ has five abreast seating with a shorter, wider fuseleage.

The E-190 was certified in the 3rd Quarter of 2005 while the SSJ will probably be certified in 4Q 2008.

The SSJ claims several advantages over the E-190AR:
1. The Maximum Takeoff Weight will be 11.4% lighter on the SSJ (45,880 kg vs. 51,800 kg)
2. The fuel burn and operating costs will be about 10% less than the E-190AR.
3. The current list price of the SSJ, $27.8 million, is about 18% less than the E-190AR

Alenia of Italy has purchased a 25% participation in the Superjet program giving the SSJ program more creditability in the western markets.

I have two questions for the A Netters:
1. Do you think the SSJ program will be able to maintain the above operating and cost advantages as they progress through flight testing and certification?
2. Although the SSJ's acceptance in the Russian market is assured, how do you think the SSJ will sell in the West European and North American markets?

Tom B
 
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LTU932
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Mon Oct 08, 2007 11:43 pm

Quoting Oldeuropean (Reply 6):
The IL96 is a derivative of the IL86, which is much older (announced 1971, first flight 1976!) than the A340.

Well, since the A340 is a derivative of sorts of the original A300, the fact that the IL-86/96 has some resemblance to the A340 isn't that far fetched.

Regarding the Sukhoi Superjet, I believe it has potential in Europe as well. SK is said to be considering the SSJ as a replacement for their Dash-8Q400s, and a smaller European airline has already ordered the SSJ as well.
 
CptRegionalJet
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Tue Oct 09, 2007 7:50 am

Quoting TomB (Reply 13):
2. Although the SSJ's acceptance in the Russian market is assured, how do you think the SSJ will sell in the West European and North American markets?

With western companies involved I think it will have its fair chance.Last I heard it was even considered by LH as an alternative.
 
traveler_7
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Tue Oct 09, 2007 9:23 am

Quoting CptRegionalJet (Reply 15):
With western companies involved I think it will have its fair chance.Last I heard it was even considered by LH as an alternative.

Involvement of Boeing and some other western companies was mentioned many times. I still do not get where this
aircraft will undergo regular technical service? Would Boeing provide such service for North American customers?
Where such center/ centers will be in Europe? or it should fly to Komsomolsk-na-Amure? Reliable maintenance system would boost interest in this aircraft.

Do they plan any sales in Asia?
 
OV735
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Tue Oct 09, 2007 3:30 pm

I think that there are several obstacles in the way of the Superjet becoming a bestseller.

Firstly, as far as I know, it has no real global support or maintenance network. Russian/Soviet airliners have previously been used by only a handful of airlines on each continent. Since the engines bear a relation to GE it might be easier in that respect, but how about performing regular technical checks on the airframe?

Secondly, I have high doubts about quality. Given that it's built for maximum efficiency and operating costs, i.e. an environment not similar to the Soviet aircraft industry when due to military requirements reliability and ruggedness topped the priority list instead of efficiency. I think that in production aircraft we might come across the utter lack of quality and the results of the overall ladna-mentality that you may well notice left and right all across the former Soviet Union, and especially Russia.

Thirdly, and this is not less important. Public opinion. Why do airlines often prefer regional jets over turboprops, even when they are more expensive to operate? Because the customers prefer the RJs. I predict the same thing will happen with the Superjet. Western passengers, many of whom still possess the good old politically motivated perception that Soviet/Russian aircraft are inherently unsafe (you can come across this even in these forums), will choose an operator with Western technology, even if the ticket price is higher by a small margin.

Thus, in my opinion, the primary market for the Superjet will be the CIS area, with other operators still "friendly" to the Russian ideology, and hopefully also some non-politically motivated Western countries.

Regards,
OV735
 
DYflyer
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Tue Oct 09, 2007 7:16 pm

Quoting OV735 (Reply 17):
Firstly, as far as I know, it has no real global support or maintenance network.

Alenia will provide the support for European customers. I guess Boeing (or some partners) would provide support for customers on the American continent.

Quoting OV735 (Reply 17):
Thirdly, and this is not less important. Public opinion. Why do airlines often prefer regional jets over turboprops, even when they are more expensive to operate? Because the customers prefer the RJs.

I don´t know about this. Most PAX don´t know (or care) what plane they are on. They can´t tell an A320 from a B737, and have no idea where they are produced. As long as the plane don´t get a lot of bad press, and it seems modern and in good condition (to them) they will fly it. Comparing it to turboprop vs RJ isn´t right since most PAX are under the impression that the RJ is more modern and safer.
Life is like a book. If you don't travel, you only read one page.
 
OV735
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Tue Oct 09, 2007 8:23 pm

Quoting DYflyer (Reply 18):
Alenia will provide the support for European customers. I guess Boeing (or some partners) would provide support for customers on the American continent.

Thanks for the correction, now I know better.

Quoting DYflyer (Reply 18):
Most PAX don´t know (or care) what plane they are on.



Quoting DYflyer (Reply 18):
Comparing it to turboprop vs RJ isn´t right since most PAX are under the impression that the RJ is more modern and safer.

It seems like there is a little contradiction here. Are you saying they don't care what they fly on despite they think that a jet is more modern and safe, or that they don't care what they fly on as long as it doesn't have propellers?

I would think, that at least in the present (perhaps it's different in 10-20 years), if a Western airline would start using a Russian built jet, it would be all over the media and would catch the eye of many a customer for the same airline. I might be wrong, but Western passengers often seem to consider Russian-built aircraft unsafe, and some journo with too much time on his hands might think the same way when he writes an article titled "X airline starts using Russian aircraft".

Some of the passengers would catch the news and, depending on their understanding of aviation safety and technologies, might decide to be careful when flying with the named airline.

But that's ofcourse only subjective speculation, nothing more.
 
Sasha
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:37 am

Quoting OV735 (Reply 19):
I might be wrong, but Western passengers often seem to consider Russian-built aircraft unsafe, and some journo with too much time on his hands might think the same way when he writes an article titled "X airline starts using Russian aircraft".

I see where you're coming from. This may hold true nowadays still for some people. However I hope that there is also a good proportion of people who noticed that the recent accidents involving Russian build aircraft have the tendency of belonging to UN-blacklisted airlines in Africa where maintenance is poor to say the least and in the case with crashes in Russia - pilot error, was officially reported as causes. So, It is I hope becoming "out of fashion" these days to state that Russian built aircraft are inherently unsafe. Just look at Dash 8-400 consecutive incidents with the landing gear earlier in the autumn!

About the Superjet 100 I think that it lacks range to even be successful in Russia. Especially considering Russia's distances. There're quite a few mid-range routes served these days by Tu154Ms and Tu134A-3s, and flights often are 60% or 30% loaded. I bet the airlines would be more than happy to replace Tupolevs with the evidently more efficient Superjets, be it with fewer seats - more suitable for the routes anyway.

Add some range to it and try again...  

[Edited 2007-10-09 21:39:03]
An2/24/28,Yak42,Tu154/134,IL18/62/96,B737/757/767,A310/320/319,F100,BAe146,EMB-145,CRJ,A340-600,B747-400,A-330-300,A-340
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Wed Oct 10, 2007 6:56 am

I think the Superjet's biggest obstacle to acceptance in the west is mostly political. The way that Putin is doing his best to put all industry under his thumb is what is really making the west nervous. I'm sure that they'll sell a few to airlines looking for a super bargain, (in the short term), but any business would have to be nuts to base their success on something coming out of Russia.

If Russia has few qualms about unilaterally squashing contracts with giants like BP and Shell, as well as cutting off the gas to Europe, I don't think they'll have any issues with screwing over a western airline.
What the...?
 
planemaker
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Wed Oct 10, 2007 7:32 am

Of course, if MHI launches their 70- and 90-seat geared-fan RJ (with possible Boeing participation - see MHI thread) then forget about the SuperJet reaching North America.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
mrocktor
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:27 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 21):
business would have to be nuts to base their success on something coming out of Russia

Sad, considering what those people went through. But true.

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 22):
if MHI launches their 70- and 90-seat geared-fan RJ

EIS is ten years from now, isn't it? If the RRJ actually gets FAA certified within a reasonable time frame, MRJ would not be a factor for a while.
 
parapente
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Wed Oct 10, 2007 12:39 pm

No chance at all when this comes out.

The MRJ is a 70-seat to 90-seat airliner.



P&W expects the GTF to reduce fuel burn by at least 12% compared to current high-bypass ratio turbines.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:47 pm

As long as Putin is acting like a Tsar, western companies will be very leary of relying on Russia for their economic survival. For example, if he's willing to blackmail BP and Shell out of their contracts and cut off the gas to Europe, he's certainly not above knifing some airline in the back.

I don't imagine you'll ever see many of them wearing non-cis livery.
What the...?
 
RAFVC10
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:54 pm

Quoting CptRegionalJet (Thread starter):
Hello everybody.This is my first post on A-net
I just checked the first pictures of the new Sukhoi Superjet.It's a good looking plane and the similarity to the Do728 design is evident.
I also read about it that it features many "western style" avionics and systems.The price of it is nearly unbeatable and a big plus in today's price conscious market.Just out of interst,how do you rate it's chances on the worldwide market?

Welcome onboard!!!!!

Answering your post, my point of view is:

- Sukhoi Superjet 100 has the same chances to win orders in the western market like it's main competitor, the Antonov AN148.

Surprised that an Italian airline has ordered this aircraft. The reason must to be in it's shareholders (Russian investors) or something but my thoughts were that ItaliAir was left all its operations.

Regards,

Gerard
El dia que los gilipollas vuelen, no podremos ver la luz del sol!
 
DYflyer
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Wed Oct 10, 2007 6:49 pm

Quoting OV735 (Reply 19):
It seems like there is a little contradiction here. Are you saying they don't care what they fly on despite they think that a jet is more modern and safe, or that they don't care what they fly on as long as it doesn't have propellers?



The last one is correct. People will prefer a jet because they think it is more modern and safe. Apart from the type of propulsion, they have no idea what type of plane they are on. To be honest i think many of the people who would worry about flying on a Russian built plane would be worried on the Embraer too if they knew it was built in Brazil.
Life is like a book. If you don't travel, you only read one page.
 
planemaker
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Wed Oct 10, 2007 9:37 pm

Quoting Mrocktor (Reply 21):
EIS is ten years from now, isn't it?

I was surprised that MHI is actually planning EIS of 2012... only 5 years from now.

Quoting Parapente (Reply 22):
P&W expects the GTF to reduce fuel burn by at least 12% compared to current high-bypass ratio turbines.

Which is substantial when, as reported in the press, the 787's engines are "only" providing an 8% improvement in comparison. The MRJ will have a significant operating cost advantage over the SuperJet (not to mention over the CRJ and E-Jet).
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
RussianJet
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Thu Oct 11, 2007 12:00 am

Quoting DYflyer (Reply 18):
Most PAX don´t know (or care) what plane they are on. They can´t tell an A320 from a B737, and have no idea where they are produced.

I can't help but think that this oft-referred-to phenomenon is overstated on A.net. I've been on planes with people whose knowledge of aviation could be written down on the back of a postage stamp, yet they still have expressed concerns about the provenance of what they're flying on. Not only that, but don't forget a large number of passengers are regular flyers. Although they may not be aviation enthusiasts, I think we should probably credit a large slice of the travelling public with a little more awareness than many here seem to think. Undoubtedly there are a lot of people that genuinely don't know or care about anything to do with their flight, but probably fewer than one might think. This concerns me, as I LOVE Russian aircraft and think this is a really proud achievement for modern Russian aerospace.
✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
 
mrocktor
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:17 pm

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 28):
MHI is actually planning EIS of 2012... only 5 years from now

I wish I could short sell that  Big grin
 
JAAlbert
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RE: Sukhoi Superjet And Its Chances On The Market?

Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:53 pm

I think it's a neat looking little airplane. I just googled it and read that it has avionics and engines and interiors from the US and European companies and of course Boeing has its nose in the project. I'd certainly fly in it if the airline I chose for a flight booked me on the aircraft. I think whether it takes off has a lot to do with politics of course, but also economics. If the plane is a maintenance nightmare or turns out to have some sort of flaw or gulps fuel or lacks range, well it won't be a success obviously. One of the obstacles could also be difficultly of an airline in suing the manufacturer if the plane does not meet performance promises. Boeing, MD and Airbus are/were all easily sued in the west -- I don't know how easy it would be to sue, or get a fair judgment, from inside Russia. (I'm not saying it is impossible, I'm saying I don't know how the law works in Russia).

Airlines will probably wait to see how the plane does with those who have committed to it before introducing it here.

The manufacturer would be wise to fly the plane regularly all over the US and Europe and Asia for demonstration flights just as Airbus has been doing with the 380 so the airlines (and of course we on a.net) can all get a look at the plane.