n1786b
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787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:39 pm

Boeing Reschedules Initial 787 Deliveries and First Flight
- Financial impact not material to earnings - Earnings guidance unchanged for 2007 and 2008

Last Update: 11:33 AM ET Oct 10, 2007

CHICAGO, Oct 10, 2007 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- The Boeing Company (BA:Boeing Co.
News, chart, profile, more

11:15am 10/10/2007

BA 101.27, -0.18, -0.2%) today announced a six-month delay in its planned initial deliveries of the 787 Dreamliner due to continued challenges completing assembly of the first airplanes.

Deliveries of the strong-selling Dreamliner are now slated to begin in late November or December 2008, versus an original target of May 2008. First flight is now anticipated around the end of first quarter 2008.

The company said the financial impact of the delay would not be material to earnings and that its earnings guidance for 2007 and 2008 remained unchanged.

"We are disappointed over the schedule changes that we are announcing today," said Boeing Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Jim McNerney. "Notwithstanding the challenges that we are experiencing in bringing forward this game-changing product, we remain confident in the design of the 787, and in the fundamental innovation and technologies that underpin it."

Early last month, Boeing announced a delay in the planned first flight of the 787 citing ongoing challenges with out-of-sequence production work, including parts shortages, and remaining software and systems integration activities. The company also acknowledged increasing risk to the delivery schedule, indicating that the margin to accommodate unexpected issues had been eliminated. The newly revised schedule for first flight and first delivery addresses the production challenges and restores margin for the program to deal with issues that may be uncovered in final ground or flight testing. Boeing also said today that flight control software and systems integration activities are not pacing items in the revised schedule for first flight.

"While we have made some progress over the past several weeks completing work on our early production airplanes and improving parts availability across the production system, the pace of that progress has not been sufficient to support our previous plans for first delivery or first flight," said Scott Carson, president and CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. "We deeply regret the impact these delays will have on our customers, and we are committed to working with them to minimize any disruption to their plans.

"The most important commitment we've made to our customers is to deliver an airplane that performs to their expectations over the long life of the program. These changes to our schedule will help ensure we do just that," Carson said.

The company will hold a conference call to discuss the 787 schedule changes today at 12:30 p.m. Central Time, which will be accessible at the company's website, http://www.boeing.com.
Boeing will provide its next quarterly financial performance update as planned on October 24.
 
baroque
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:43 pm

I guess the engine manufacturers will be spitting a couple of chips as well as the expectant airlines.

Interesting contrast that the engines for both of the delayed programs have been ready on time when you think how complex they are.
 
JGPH1A
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:44 pm

Was it the wiring ?  Smile
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NYC777
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:45 pm

'Terrible. I'm so disappointed in Boeing for allowing this to happen. They better get their s**t together and make sure this doesn't happen again!
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:46 pm

Well at least we no longer need to have 1000 threads on whether or not the 787 will be late.

And it is now official - Boeing and Airbus both suck. Big grin
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:47 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 1):
Interesting contrast that the engines for both of the delayed programs have been ready on time when you think how complex they are.

The Trent 900/1000 and GEnx/GP7xxx draw a great deal more on previous models then the 787 and A380 did.  Wink


All I am hoping now is that Boeing, at worse, meets this new delay and doesn't have to announce new ones.
 
PHKLM
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:49 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):

And it is now official - Boeing and Airbus both suck

So does A.net  duck 

On a more serious note, what does this delay imply for all the deliveries further down the line?
 
scrubbsywg
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:49 pm

no kidding, now the squabbling can end. However, they could not have 'just' decided this. Anyone on this board that has been following this cannot believe that they 'just' realized they needed 6 months. Things were going downhill for awhile.
 
roseflyer
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:49 pm

I know many engineers working very long hours in Everett on the 787. It's drawing vastly on the resources of the company. Fortunately Boeing does have a large engineering force to draw off of to solve the problems associated with production. The 787 can borrow engineers from the 737 and various Integrated Defense Systems divisions so that more expertise can be used. There are many workarounds being done. Out of sequence work is very costly. Announcing a delay and a new delivery schedule will help Boeing schedule work better. Ad-hoc workarounds need to be avoided. They will always happen, but they don't help the delivery schedule at all.

Well now that it is official, at least the turmoil surrounding the stock price of Boeing might calm down. It is bad news to see a delay, and I hope things can get sorted out. Boeing is a strong company.

[Edited 2007-10-10 08:54:45]
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NYC777
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:50 pm

Quoting PHKLM (Reply 6):
On a more serious note, what does this delay imply for all the deliveries further down the line?

Probably pushes those deliveries out by about 5 to 6 months as well unless Boeing ramps up production really aggressively which they more than likely won't do.
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StarGoldLHR
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:52 pm

For once, I think Boeing has made the right decision.

At the original schedule the first 787 ever flight would have been AN1 from NRT to HKG, over loaded 180% to test the escape chutes on landing and diverted via Alaska and Colombia for cold and hot weather testing.

I was terrified at this rush to market with untested technology with the overriding emphasis on the belief that all will work.

This extra 6 months gives Boeing the oppourtunity to truly test the plane safely, rather than hope, scheme and dream there way into the sky.

Even if I made a paper airplane.. i'd need a few attempts to get it right.
So far in 2008 45 flights and Gold already. JFK, IAD, LGA, SIN, HKG, NRT, AKL, PPT, LAX still to book ! Home Airport LCY
 
PHKLM
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:52 pm

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 8):
Well now that it is official, at least the turmoil surrounding the stock price of Boeing might calm down.

Well, it's going down. Fast.
(Off course as time proceeds that statement might prove itself very untrue, I realize the nature of stock markets. However, trade volume is definitely on a long-time high.)
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=boeing

[Edited 2007-10-10 08:54:51]
 
WINGS
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:52 pm

Quoting N1786b (Thread starter):

BA 101.27, -0.18, -0.2%) today announced a six-month delay in its planned initial deliveries of the 787 Dreamliner due to continued challenges completing assembly of the first airplanes.

Deliveries of the strong-selling Dreamliner are now slated to begin in late November or December 2008, versus an original target of May 2008. First flight is now anticipated around the end of first quarter 2008.

Well this scenario had been expected for a while. I'm glad that Boeing is now taking its time to work out all the issues so that when it is eventually delivered it will meet up and even exceed its promises.

Some points in which this delay will bring is the following,

* Chinese airlines will not receive any 787 for the Olympics.
* Qantas/Jetstar once again have to re-shcedule their fleet ( the first being the A380 delays )


Some questions also remain.

* How many frames do Boeing expect to deliver in 2008 and 2009 ?
* What are the issues that are holding up the program ?


Regards,
Wings
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gbfra
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:53 pm

This doesn't really come as a surprise.
As I wrote in another thread Boeing had begun preparing the market for a delay already a while ago.
The fundamental things apply as time goes by
 
petera380
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:53 pm

Wiring for one and rivits for the other - both rediculas!  Yeah sure

Peter
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:53 pm

Quoting PHKLM (Reply 6):
On a more serious note, what does this delay imply for all the deliveries further down the line?

The delay will likely result in an accelerated ramp-up to "full production" in 2009, so I would imagine Boeing will be able to meet their 112(?) planes by 2009 target, if not exceed it.

NH likely won't care too much, since the JAA won't let them fly the planes outside of Asia anyway until they undergo a separate ETOPS certification program.

Not having the 787 for the Beijing Olympics will be a PR black-eye for Boeing (as it was for Airbus and China Southern's A380s), but on the plus side both companies can now expect the "status quo" in tit-for-tat orders.
 
hloutweg
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:55 pm

 Sad What a sad moment for Boeing. I'm pretty sure they are being optimistic about the delays but will actually get the airplane flying and delivered within the time frame. I would also add, that just as we've seen with the A380 program, delays have to be initially hidden and problems belittled to buffer the impact of the news in the value of shares as we saw yesterday. I would like though, that Boeing gives further explanation of the problems that they are encountering as the 'bolt' issue is not sufficient to halt the first 787 from flying in my opinion.
In Varietate Concordia
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:55 pm

Quoting PHKLM (Reply 12):
Well, (Boeing stock is) going down. Fast.

Yup. That three-tenths of one percent loss (18 cents) is a real bruiser!

No wait, it's up 25 cents now. What a roller-coaster! Big grin

[Edited 2007-10-10 08:56:25]
 
NYC777
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:56 pm

Quoting WINGS (Reply 13):
* How many frames do Boeing expect to deliver in 2008 and 2009 ?
* What are the issues that are holding up the program ?

From the sounds of it the same issues when they announced the delay in the first flight.
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JoeCanuck
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:56 pm

I'm waiting for the, "I told you so first", thread...
What the...?
 
ContnlEliteCMH
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:57 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
And it is now official - Boeing and Airbus both suck

Maybe, but if they're only six months late, Boeing sucks much less. And at least their problems are supply chain, arguably the riskiest part of the new program.
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Stitch
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:58 pm

Quoting ContnlEliteCMH (Reply 21):
Maybe, but if they're only six months late, Boeing sucks much less. And at least their problems are supply chain, arguably the riskiest part of the new program.



Quoting Gkirk (Reply 20):
Search the dictionary for humour.  Wink

What he said. Big grin

$10 says we reach 300 posts within the next 30 minutes.
 
baroque
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 3:59 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 5):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 1):
Interesting contrast that the engines for both of the delayed programs have been ready on time when you think how complex they are.

The Trent 900/1000 and GEnx/GP7xxx draw a great deal more on previous models then the 787 and A380 did.

Hmmm. Debating that might be a bit like counting angels on the head of a pin. But I wonder if some would argue that reprofiling sets of blades can be as complex as organizing a new wing.

But I take your point. Nevertheless it would be interesting to see what an engine person thinks.

I suppose the odd thing seems to be that it seems to have been relatively small parts (and you would have hoped relatively trivial parts) of each program that has proved the bottleneck. The really dramatic advances in the airframes seem to have gone off reasonably well (fingers crossed!).  bitelip   optimist 
 
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Stitch
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:01 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 22):
I suppose the odd thing seems to be that it seems to have been relatively small parts (and you would have hoped relatively trivial parts) of each program that has proved the bottleneck. The really dramatic advances in the airframes seem to have gone off reasonably well...  crossfingers   bitelip   optimist 

That's what happens, I guess, when you "don't sweat the small stuff"...
 
NYC777
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:01 pm

Well until we hear what comes out of the conference call this afternoon it still sounds like:
1) fastener issues and the bad documentation on LN 1
2) FCS software issues.
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PHKLM
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:01 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 17):
What a roller-coaster!

 thumbsup 

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 19):
I'm waiting for the, "I told you so first", thread...

Sorry, but what is wrong with that?
There are a lot of very much respected A.net users that have been eloquently discussing the matter and many of them concluded the EIS would eventually be postponed, no matter what Boeing said before. Although they didn't say it that way, they indeed told you so...
 
ContnlEliteCMH
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:02 pm

Quoting Hloutweg (Reply 16):
I would like though, that Boeing gives further explanation of the problems that they are encountering as the 'bolt' issue is not sufficient to halt the first 787 from flying in my opinion.

No, of course not. Boeing should take an airplane that lacks critical fasteners, line it up on the runway, and hit the thrust levers. To heck with things like structural integrity; a lack of fasteners is not sufficient to halt the 787 from flying!  Yeah sure

I expect this thread will have 50 posts with similar nonsense.
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siromega
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:03 pm

I thought that Alena and the other suppliers (except for Aloca doing the fasteners) were on time and ramping up now? LN4's shipsets are close to being or already are in Everett right? Basically all they're missing is fasteners and the software to fly the thing. If thats the case then I'd expect Boeing to get close to their original end of 2009 target simply because software can be loaded comparatively quicker than if they were missing engines or something. The fasteners issue is the only stick in the mud. And one might ask how many complete planes Boeing can have done by end of Q2 2008... probably more than the six to do flight testing with.
 
pnwtraveler
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:04 pm

OK folks don't get your internet nickers in a knot and overblow this ala CNN Breaking News happening right now as we speak. As has been said numerous times but obviously reasonableness isn't popular or as exciting. Almost every groundbreaking new aviation program has had some delays. 6 months is not earth shattering. The airlines have undoubted been kept abreast of this all so they won't be shocked. Another delay beyond this is where it will begin to get serious.

*Bracing myself for all the nonsense and A vs B crap to fly.
 
NYC777
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:04 pm

I suspect there'll be more news coming out of the conference call later today.
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vfw614
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:05 pm

Quoting ContnlEliteCMH (Reply 21):
And at least their problems are supply chain, arguably the riskiest part of the new program.

Well, a not delivered airplane is a not deivered airplane is a not delivered airplane. A customer could not care less who has screwed up big time when faced with a delay. Outsourcing certainly is no excuse for the assembler.
 
NYC777
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:06 pm

Looks like a whole bunch of us owes Clickhappy an apology when he was flamed for saying that first flight won't occur until 1st quarter of 2008. Sorry Click.
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:06 pm

would the delay result in 50% discount for 787 now then right?  duck  Just kidding,most important is that,s it gonna be safe in the air! Hopefully there will be no more delays,we all know what that could lead to.

Hej!  wave 
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717-200
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:08 pm

I can just hear the Nelson Muntz like laugh "haw haw" coming from Toulouse
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sandrozrh
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:09 pm

Quoting ContnlEliteCMH (Reply 20):
Maybe, but if they're only six months late, Boeing sucks much less

 Yeah sure

This is not about who sucks more and who sucks less. Both manufacturers screwed up and frankly i'm not surprised, considering todays market pressure. And who knows, I really don't hope so, but it may be possible that Boeing wil encounter further problems that will further delay the program? So i'd still be a bit careful with such comments  Wink
 
ikramerica
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:09 pm

So Clickhappy's sources were correct. I want to say I'm sorry I doubted him.

As for one CaptainX, that's a different story. His is about the plane being unsafe and the program being shut down, and wild claims. No apologies there.

Quoting N1786b (Thread starter):
The company said the financial impact of the delay would not be material to earnings and that its earnings guidance for 2007 and 2008 remained unchanged.

They better hope that this is true, otherwise they will be investigated.

This damages Boeing's reputation as well, as there are airlines that were planning on having the 787 on a certain schedule, and slipping by six months is a long time. 1-2 months, or even 3, would have been less damaging to the bottom line of carriers.

It'll be interesting to see the ripple effect of this announcement on orders.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:10 pm

Quoting ContnlEliteCMH (Reply 20):
Maybe, but if they're only six months late

Boeing is definitely still well ahead of the game, considering the new technology on this plane and the fact that it has, you know, orders. Wink That said, it's Boeing's game to lose.
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Stitch
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:12 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 35):
It'll be interesting to see the ripple effect of this announcement on orders.

I imagine none, since it is possible Boeing is setting a "worst case scenario" with a six month delay, to avoid having to announce "rolling delays" if they say something less.

Also, the delay allows the entire production chain to "catch up", which should mean that, like the A380, once the initial planes already in sequence are done, production on the rest of them will be able to be accelerated.
 
ContnlEliteCMH
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:13 pm

Quoting Vfw614 (Reply 30):
Well, a not delivered airplane is a not deivered airplane is a not delivered airplane. A customer could not care less who has screwed up big time when faced with a delay. Outsourcing certainly is no excuse for the assembler.

You're right: the customer only knows and cares that their airplane is not delivered. And I agree that outsourcing is no excuse. But when analyzing the problem, Airbus' wiring issues were not due to anything that should have been a risk in the program. The supply chain for Boeing is a *huge* risk in this program, and while they are disappointed in their ability to manage and mitigate this risk, at least they got bit by the biggest risk they have. It's embarrassing when you fail to manage risk on small things, or when you fail to identify a risk at all (a la Airbus and CAD). This is especially true when you have financial penalties. By golly, if you're going to pay, you'd better be paying because of the biggest, baddest threat you had.

[Edited 2007-10-10 09:20:26]
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NYC777
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:13 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 35):
So Clickhappy's sources were correct. I want to say I'm sorry I doubted him.

As for one CaptainX, that's a different story. His is about the plane being unsafe and the program being shut down, and wild claims. No apologies there.

      On both comments. Though I suspect we'll be hearing from the good Captain soon about how much the 787 sucks should be shut down and will be the most unsafe flying machine built since the Comet Mk1.

A positive out of all this...Boeing is guaranteed of having 1000 787 orders by EIS!!!!

Also this allows the other aircraft in the line to be fully stuffed before being sent on to Everett for final assembly. this should happen with all the frames that are at the subcontractors plants in Italy, Japan, Charleston and Whichita. It allows Boeing time to get the production to a point they want it to be when they make first delivery in a little over a year from now.

[Edited 2007-10-10 09:15:37]

[Edited 2007-10-10 09:17:57]
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siromega
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:16 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 37):

I imagine none, since it is possible Boeing is setting a "worst case scenario" with a six month delay, to avoid having to announce "rolling delays" if they say something less.

Thats what I'm expecting. I was figuring its possible for Boeing to have more than 6 planes doing flight testing by July 1, 2008. If its possible to divide up the work that much and still have test pilots, they could end up with an earlier EIS than November 2008.
 
ContnlEliteCMH
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:17 pm

Quoting SandroZRH (Reply 34):
This is not about who sucks more and who sucks less. Both manufacturers screwed up and frankly i'm not surprised, considering todays market pressure. And who knows, I really don't hope so, but it may be possible that Boeing wil encounter further problems that will further delay the program? So i'd still be a bit careful with such comments

Since both companies are publicy traded, for-profit companies, it is clearly a matter of who sucks more and who sucks less. You may be so careless as to dismiss the consequences of a mistake, claiming that they're all the same, but that's pretty sloppy.

Airbus' mistake not only increased the cost of their program by a significant amount, but it delayed the entire production schedule. It also significantly impact earnings.

A six month delay for 787 may not add similar cost to the program, and as a previous post points out, it might not actually delay the production schedule. In fact, Boeing does not seem to think either is a significant issue as the press release cited by the OP states clearly that Boeing expects no impact to earnings.

YOU can glibly say "A mistake is a mistake" without defining the impact. Boeing won't, and neither will investors.
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BlueSky1976
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:18 pm

Let's hope no more problems surface within those six months and Boeing solves all the issues ahead successfully.
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NYC777
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:19 pm

This also provides a lesson for Airbus since they're following the model model with respect to the A350 and outsourcing the work to major subcontractors like Boeing did with the 787.

I wonder how this is going to affect current and future sales campaigns.

I wonder if anyone's head is going to roll because of all this.

[Edited 2007-10-10 09:21:45]
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ER757
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:21 pm

Quoting ScrubbsYWG (Reply 7):
However, they could not have 'just' decided this. Anyone on this board that has been following this cannot believe that they 'just' realized they needed 6 months. Things were going downhill for awhile.

I agree they had to have known this was coming, but it was just a matter of determining when to make the public announcement. So now that's done and we should get quite a bit more detail during the conference call (one would hope anyhow). This can't be a good day for the folks in Everett and Chicago and we know it won't be a good day for the folks here on a.net who spent hours posting derogatory remarks when the A380 delays were announced either  Wink
Now let's hope this will be the only delay announcement and things stay on track for the new schedule  crossfingers 
 
WINGS
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RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:21 pm

The 787 delay issue may work towards Boeings favour. As we have witnessed with Airbus, Boeing may likely have to compensate early customers for the delays, and one way to so is with additional discounts on future orders.

It might also work against Boeing. At a time in which airlines are hungry for extra lift the only suitable alternative is the A330.

While some may argue that the delays will give Boeing the opportunity to ramp up production I have some doubts and believe that ramp up will take longer than originally planned.

These delays may also have an effect on future derivatives such as the 787-3 and -9, as well as the 748i/F as resources may have to be re-located to resolve the issues facing the 787.

In the past year several airlines have placed orders for both the A330 and 787. It seems that those that have done so, have an advantage.

Qantas
Aeroflot ( lease)
Avianca
Singapore Airlines


The 787 delay may also have a positive effect on the A330 series for the following reasons. Northwest Airlines is an early customer and may look towards confirming their remaining A330 order, and even Virgin Atlantic may look to convert its remaining order for the A346 into the A332/A333 series, if the delays are to cause problems with short term expansion plans.

Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
worldrider
Posts: 215
Joined: Sun Nov 25, 2007 11:26 am

RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:24 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 21):
$10 says we reach 300 posts within the next 30 minutes.

well Mr Stich, 10 min and 255 post to go, maybe the topic is not that interesting after all, i can bet the same 10rupies that the 787 will be longer than 6 months delayed. sure i have better chances..
 
NYC777
Posts: 5065
Joined: Wed Jun 09, 2004 3:00 am

RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:26 pm

Quoting WINGS (Reply 45):
The 787 delay may also have a positive effect on the A330 series for the following reasons. Northwest Airlines is an early customer and may look towards confirming their remaining A330 order, and even Virgin Atlantic may look to convert its remaining order for the A346 into the A332/A333 series, if the delays are to cause problems with short term expansion plans.

If the delay was a year or more than I would say that that could happen but since the delays is 6 months I doubt that this would occur.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
ikramerica
Posts: 13730
Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:27 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 9):
Probably pushes those deliveries out by about 5 to 6 months as well unless Boeing ramps up production really aggressively which they more than likely won't do.


Not a given at all. The fact they call it not material to earnings would suggest otherwise, at least in the long term. We'll know more when they hold the conference call, but I wouldn't expect deliveries in 2009 to be that delayed.

There are indications from the production side that ramp up is not going to be delayed by 6 months. And the press release states part of the reason for the delay in EIS is so they aren't rushing the testing and they leave room for contingencies. There will likely be more 787s parked awaiting delivery than planned during testing because of the delay in certification.

As I said in a different thread, the then current revised flight test regiment had eliminated all room for contingencies and rework during the testing. That was fine if everything went perfectly. Never happens. Which means they would have had to announce a delay DURING testing should any major issues arise, which would have sent the press into an "is the 787 unsafe" news frenzy.

I would imagine that the bean counters calculated, deep in the accounting bowels of the company, that the potential cost of a "scandal" like that was more than the cost of the delay.

By leaving plenty of time in the test program, they can fix all the "unsafe" problems without anyone batting an eye.  Wink

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 24):
2) FCS software issues.

That's not how I read the quote regarding the FCS. At least how I read it, they are NOT critical path elements. They use the term "pacing items" for some reason, but maybe they want to avoid using the word "critical" in a press release?

"Boeing also said today that flight control software and systems integration activities are not pacing items in the revised schedule for first flight."

That means that if there are problems there, it won't delay the program unless those problems become major.

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 31):
Looks like a whole bunch of us owes Clickhappy an apology when he was flamed for saying that first flight won't occur until 1st quarter of 2008. Sorry Click.

If only he had stuck to his guns about the date rather than waffling, he could be even "more righter."  Smile
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
BlueSky1976
Posts: 1605
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2004 9:18 am

RE: 787- 6 Months Late - It's Official

Wed Oct 10, 2007 4:28 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 43):
This also provides a lesson for Airbus since they're following the model model with respect to the A350 and outsourcing the work to major subcontractors like Boeing did with the 787.

Airbus has been following the outsourcing model since its first aircraft - the A300. Back then "Airbus" was just the name of the plane with its manufacturers based in four different countries. They certainly have a little more experience on the outsorcing field than Boeing does.
Still, it didn't help them with the A380 issues...
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