jawake
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Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Wed Oct 17, 2007 2:51 pm

I did not want to hijack the forum that is discussing the USA Today Article on PIT being dismantled as a hub so I thought I would start a new topic.

I remember in the early 1990's flying through STL & PIT on my way to the West Coast and now they are no longer "hubs" that many of us will fly through. I know there will be some traffic, but overall, they are no longer the "hubs" that CVG, ORD, MSP or CLE are in that part of the country.

So my question is this.... Who is the next "hub" that in 10 years won't be a "hub" anymore? Should CVG be nervous? CLE? MSP? etc..... I am particular interested in US Hubs. I have no agenda, other than picking your brains to see where we might NOT be flying through in the years to come. Maybe I am wrong, we have seen the end of hubs dying on the US. But with Airline Mergers constantly being suggested, it seems that it is a matter of when, not if.
 
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:06 pm

I'd say of the three you mention MSP is safe. The interesting scenario would be a DL/CO merger. Which hub goes? CVG or CLE? You obviously can't keep both.

MSP is the home of NW. I can't think of a merger scenario that would result in it being axed. There are only two scenarios I can think of that would cause MSP to lose hub status. #1 would be NW going bust. #2 (and least likely) would be NW closing down MSP as a hub in some kind of dispute with MSP and/or the local government.
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steeler83
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:21 pm

I don't think CLE has anything to worry about. CO is building up CLE to take pressure off of EWR as has been discussed in other threads. CVG is about right-sized right now for DL. Regarding a CO-DL merger, I don't think that is very likely as of right now either...
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2travel2know
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:47 pm

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 2):
I don't think CLE has anything to worry about. CO is building up CLE to take pressure off of EWR as has been discussed in other threads

But when it comes to international routes, CLE makes very little sense for CO. Out of CLE one could expect to have B757 to LGW, AMS and CDG (because the later 2 are SkyTeam hubs); B73G MEX and CUN routes; SJO and/or LIR plus PTY (CM SkyTeam hub) in Centralamerica, and MBJ, CGM, NAS, PUJ, SXM, AUA on the Caribbean. And of all the destinations mentioned before only 1-3 may support daily flights.

I'm sorry to see that aiports like PIT (US), BWI (US), RDU (AA), BNA (AA), PDX (DL ?!) became former hubs, but maybe the saddest might be STL, how AA took over TWA and de-hubbed their hub..
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jawake
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:48 pm

It is being discussed elsewhere a DL/NW Merger. So what do you do with DTW & CVG?
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:59 pm

SLC could face the prospect of being de-hubbed in the event of a DL/UA merger, with DEN being a newer airport with twice the O&D potential. But like many, this one is probably not even a blip on the radar screen at the moment.
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Cubsrule
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Wed Oct 17, 2007 4:23 pm

Quoting Jawake (Thread starter):

I remember in the early 1990's flying through STL & PIT on my way to the West Coast and now they are no longer "hubs" that many of us will fly through.

STL is most certainly still a hub (and it serves an important purpose within the AA network by taking a lot of pressure off of ORD and arguably increasing ORD yields as well).
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AADC10
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Wed Oct 17, 2007 4:35 pm

Quoting Indy (Reply 1):
Which hub goes? CVG or CLE? You obviously can't keep both.

I think it would be clear that CVG would be the one to go. CLE is the bigger town. However, in a UA/CO merger, CLE would be toast, crushed by ORD, EWR and IAD.
 
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Wed Oct 17, 2007 5:48 pm

In a NW/DL merger CVG would be displaced by DTW. MEM probably would lose to ATL

DL/CO very unlikely but CVG already has more destinations than CLE and has the space.

UA/DL. ORD would win hands down over CVG. DEN/SLC is not as clear cut as some would think. DEN should win but would you be so worryfree over entering a hub market with 2 growing LCCs. SLC has shown a willingness to build an ATL sytle infrastructure if needed which would partially offset some of the advantages.
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Wed Oct 17, 2007 6:12 pm

Quoting Flyingcat (Reply 8):
DEN/SLC is not as clear cut as some would think. DEN should win but would you be so worryfree over entering a hub market with 2 growing LCCs. SLC has shown a willingness to build an ATL sytle infrastructure if needed which would partially offset some of the advantages.

The only advantage SLC has over DEN is west coast equipment logistics. SLC is close enough to use EMB-120 turbo-props to some of the smaller west coast cities. But again as I eluded to above, DEN would walk away with this one since they have twice the O&D that SLC has. Who's to say if SLC rebuilds their terminal/concourse facilities anyhow, and B6 ramps up more operations there, that WN wouldn't get into the mix further?
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jawake
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Wed Oct 17, 2007 9:05 pm

I think we are approaching this from a good perspective, mergers will be the key to whether a hub remains a hub. Certainly that was true in the case of STL & PIT. And BTW, I do realize STL is a hub, but its prominence and frequency of flights has diminished over the years just as PIT is experiencing at the moment.

But let me suggest a different approach. Based on volume, number of passengers, O&D, which "hubs" look weak? Meaning "hubs" that could be dismantled easier than others. For example, dismantling ORD would be huge, compared to maybe CLE or CVG.

SLC & PDX also sound like candidates given their size. What do you think?
 
DIA
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Wed Oct 17, 2007 9:24 pm

Which hubs to disappear?

1. Not likely, but I'd say MKE and KCI if NWA fully takes over operations.

2. Pittsburgh

3. Shot in the dark = LGB for Jetblue

**BTW, A^A killed Reno off.
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2travel2know
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Wed Oct 17, 2007 9:27 pm

Quoting Jawake (Reply 10):
Based on volume, number of passengers, O&D, which "hubs" look weak?

I could think NW's MEM and if F9 gives UA a very hard time, UA's DEN.
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ConcordeBoy
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Wed Oct 17, 2007 10:51 pm

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 7):
I think it would be clear that CVG would be the one to go.

um.....

Quoting AADC10 (Reply 7):
CLE is the bigger town.

...which really means nothing so far as aviation hub/planning/operation goes.
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steeler83
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Thu Oct 18, 2007 1:10 am

Quoting DIA (Reply 11):
Which hubs to disappear?

1. Not likely, but I'd say MKE and KCI if NWA fully takes over operations.

2. Pittsburgh

3. Shot in the dark = LGB for Jetblue

I thought it was already discussed that PIT already disappeared, unless I am missing something  Smile  silly 

If this is a miscommunication, my apologies...
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HPAEAA
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:52 am

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 6):

STL is most certainly still a hub (and it serves an important purpose within the AA network by taking a lot of pressure off of ORD and arguably increasing ORD yields as well).

As of the Q3 results call today, STL had a higher YOY increase in RASM than ORD.... go STL, guess not much will be cut in the next major rounds of schedule changes..
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DIA
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:59 am

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 12):
I could think NW's MEM and if F9 gives UA a very hard time, UA's DEN.

???...Funny.

DEN is officially the nation's 4th-busiest airport now.

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 14):
PIT already disappeared

Good point.  Smile
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2travel2know
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:06 am

Quoting DIA (Reply 16):
???...Funny.

DEN is officially the nation's 4th-busiest airport now.

Why is so funny?, DFW is a very busy airport too and that didn't keep DL from de-hubbing it.
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DIA
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:38 am

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 17):
hy is so funny?, DFW is a very busy airport too and that didn't keep DL from de-hubbing it.

But DFW (excuse my poor english here...) "would never not-be a hub"...just that simple, w/o getting into the weeds about "why so."

Regarding your DEN thoughts: It just isn't likely with all things considered. In this thread, I would think the thoughts are geared more towards hubs that stand a chance of not being a hub in the near future. In this context, hubs such as LAX, ATL, ORD, EWR, and even DEN & DFW are not very likely candidates.
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steeler83
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:44 am

Quoting DIA (Reply 18):
But DFW (excuse my poor english here...) "would never not-be a hub"...just that simple, w/o getting into the weeds about "why so."

Regarding your DEN thoughts: It just isn't likely with all things considered. In this thread, I would think the thoughts are geared more towards hubs that stand a chance of not being a hub in the near future. In this context, hubs such as LAX, ATL, ORD, EWR, and even DEN & DFW are not very likely candidates.

I can see what you mean by poor english, I guess what you're intending to say is that at places like DFW, DEN, ATL, LAX, etc, is that if one airline pulls out, someone else will be there with a major hub operaton, right?

The thought of DFW losing their AA hub... rediculous!! although I don't intend to stimey away from your original point tho!
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DIA
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:00 pm

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 19):
I guess what you're intending to say is that at places like DFW, DEN, ATL, LAX, etc, is that if one airline pulls out, someone else will be there with a major hub operaton, right?

With the hubs cited here, absolutely...and to that list could be added a few more.
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Thu Oct 18, 2007 6:18 pm

Quoting Jawake (Reply 10):
SLC & PDX also sound like candidates given their size. What do you think?

This has been the big reason SLC has not taken on a massive terminal/concourse rebuild that was proposed back in 1998. With DL out of BK and not a take-over target from the Doug Parker's of the airline world, they now feel better about moving forward with it, especially since their O&D load now exceeds what the current facilities were designed for. The only merger scenario that would eliminate SLC as a hub would be a DL/UA combination which would move virtually everything over to DEN.
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steeler83
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Thu Oct 18, 2007 6:30 pm

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 21):
The only merger scenario that would eliminate SLC as a hub would be a DL/UA combination which would move virtually everything over to DEN.

And how likely is that? I guess there are better odds of me getting struck by lightning twice!
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deltal1011man
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Thu Oct 18, 2007 7:18 pm

Quoting Jawake (Thread starter):
Should CVG be nervous? CLE? MSP

hahaha CVG is pretty much dead other than OH(and i think the LGW,AMS,FRA and CDG will go OH when they make a CRJ-200LLLLLLLLLLLLLR model lol)

Quoting Jawake (Reply 4):
So what do you do with DTW & CVG?

i hope thats a joke

Quoting Flyingcat (Reply 8):
MEM probably would lose to ATL

probably if MEM wins then so will CVG

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 22):
And how likely is that? I guess there are better odds of me getting struck by lightning twice!

lol

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 17):
Why is so funny?, DFW is a very busy airport too and that didn't keep DL from de-hubbing it.

its called Leo Mullin(aka the Delta killer)
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af773atmsp
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Thu Oct 18, 2007 7:38 pm

Wasn't NW threatening to stop its hub at MSP in the 1990s? And the Metropolitan Airports Commission has some deal with NW to still have a hub at MSP.
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masseybrown
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Thu Oct 18, 2007 8:35 pm

Obviously, based on reading this thread, ORD is the only safe hub. People can devise scenarios in which any and all of the others are doomed.

Even ATL ... has DL stopped washing planes yet?  Wink
 
jawake
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:37 pm

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 23):
i hope thats a joke

Nope, sorry. I would find it hard to believe that if DL/NW Merge, both hubs would be left intact. DTW with its international connections and new facilities seems to be the front runner. DTW & CVG are as far apart as PIT & PHL, and PHL was the winner.

Quoting MasseyBrown (Reply 25):
Obviously, based on reading this thread, ORD is the only safe hub.

That is a good point. I would add IAD, EWR & maybe DTW to that list.
 
SkyyMaster
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Thu Oct 18, 2007 11:06 pm

Quoting Jawake (Reply 10):
SLC & PDX also sound like candidates given their size. What do you think?

PDX is a hub? For? AS focus city but a hub? Or am I reading this wrong?

Quoting 2travel2know (Reply 12):
I could think NW's MEM and if F9 gives UA a very hard time, UA's DEN.

Your later comparison of DL and DFW do not work with UA and DEN. First, UA is still by far DEN's largest carrier. Delta was always a very distant second to AA at DFW. They spent many years and many dollars trying to compete with AA at DFW begore they finally cut their losses. F9 is already giving UA a hard time at DEN, but United is not going to roll over and die because of them. They have quite a few Ted flights from DEN in an attempt to counter Frontier. Now, if United were going to get scared of anyone at DEN, it would be Southwest. DEN is getting more new service from WN this fall than any other station. No doubt they covet more gates and the ability to grow there. Having two LCC's with sizable ops at DEN would put a crimp in UA's lifestyle, but I really dont see them dropping DEN as a hub.

I do agree mergers would play a role in any potential city losing it's hub status. Personally, I hate all the merger talk. I want to see all the carriers fly, but if it's inevitable, and depending on who marries whom, the folks in MEM, CVG, and maybe CLE should be the most worried. Also, I personally don't trust AA with STL. The numbers may sound good, but it really is rather redundant geographically. If AA gets into any sort of financial trouble, STL will get the same treatment PIT did from US.
 
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Fri Oct 19, 2007 12:00 am

Quoting Jawake (Reply 26):
e, sorry. I would find it hard to believe that if DL/NW Merge, both hubs would be left intact. DTW with its international connections and new facilities seems to be the front runner. DTW & CVG are as far apart as PIT & PHL, and PHL was the winner.

i was saying i hope your joking about which one they would keep CVG or DTW(and they would keep DTW BTW)
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jawake
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Fri Oct 19, 2007 12:49 am

Quoting DeltaL1011man (Reply 28):
i was saying i hope your joking about which one they would keep CVG or DTW(and they would keep DTW BTW)

Sorry I was not clear, glad we agree!
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Fri Oct 19, 2007 1:19 am

Quoting Steeler83 (Reply 22):
And how likely is that? I guess there are better odds of me getting struck by lightning twice!

 rotfl   rotfl  Hardly likely at all! I just don't think you're going to see two of the three largest carriers merge, unless one was on the verge of Chapter 7, and the DOJ outlined some specific divestiture conditions. I think the SLC hub is safe for the time being and a new facility is forthcoming.
SLC is also home to American Express Centurion Bank which is one of Delta's largest financial partners since they handle the SkyMiles Credit Card for them (same with the Aeroplan card for AC). BTW, a new design for the card is out with the new branding that you can see on the DL home page:
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747fan
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Fri Oct 19, 2007 1:28 am

Quoting Jawake (Reply 26):
That is a good point. I would add IAD, EWR & maybe DTW to that list.

I'd say the same goes with PHL, IAH, DFW, and MIA. Also DL's JFK hub.
 
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Fri Oct 19, 2007 1:36 am

Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 27):

Portland is an Alaska/Horizon hub. Though clearly its more of a Horizon city if you want to look at it that way. But Air Group as a whole has over 100 flights a day. Serves more then 30 cities. And a Flight Att. base (part of SEA domicile). That would be a hub.

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steeler83
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Fri Oct 19, 2007 3:42 am

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 30):
Hardly likely at all! I just don't think you're going to see two of the three largest carriers merge, unless one was on the verge of Chapter 7, and the DOJ outlined some specific divestiture conditions. I think the SLC hub is safe for the time being and a new facility is forthcoming.
SLC is also home to American Express Centurion Bank which is one of Delta's largest financial partners since they handle the SkyMiles Credit Card for them (same with the Aeroplan card for AC). BTW, a new design for the card is out with the new branding that you can see on the DL home page:

I think the idea of DL having one of their biggest financial partners based at one of their hubs, yeah, I don't think they're going to want to stab AMex in the back like that... It's another good reason why they should continue to support SLC, aside from the O&D and all the other direct airline-aviation stuff... I don't see DL merging with anyone quite yet either, except maybe NW, but that's a big IF or MAYBE...
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rsbj
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Thu Oct 25, 2007 10:42 pm

Just thought I'd share with you that the rumor at WN is 65 flights a day at PIT by the end of next year. I think that's a little ambitious, but we'll see. Keep your fingers crossed!
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Thu Oct 25, 2007 11:13 pm

Quoting Jawake (Reply 4):
So what do you do with DTW & CVG?

My opinion is that should DL and NW merge, which i am highly skeptical about the possibilities of this actually happening, I think CVG would be scaled back. The Detroit hub is well developed and region has a much larger economy to support such a hub than does CVG....like it said, in my opinion.
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Thu Oct 25, 2007 11:50 pm

Quoting Jawake (Reply 4):
It is being discussed elsewhere a DL/NW Merger. So what do you do with DTW & CVG?

No doubt CVG would see the axe, or at best, be kept as a minor focus city. DTW has the international routes as well as a much larger O&D base.

Quoting Jawake (Thread starter):
I remember in the early 1990's flying through STL & PIT on my way to the West Coast and now they are no longer "hubs" that many of us will fly through. I know there will be some traffic, but overall, they are no longer the "hubs" that CVG, ORD, MSP or CLE are in that part of the country

CVG is depressing as a "hub". It's not even close to what it was nearly 3-4 years ago. Heck, on Sunday, my flight taxied from the end of Concourse A closest to 18L out towards 18C; we were between A and B, and there was not a single aircraft at any of the gates in the B Concourse that face towards A. Concourse A has become an extension of the Comair Terminal (Concourse C) as the only flights I've seen going in and out of there recently are operated by regional jets. ATL-CVG used to see a couple widebodies a day on that route alone. Now the only widebodies you'll see at CVG are for the few remaining international flights.  frown 
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jawake
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RE: Disappearing Hubs, STL, PIT,?

Fri Oct 26, 2007 2:41 am

Quoting RSBJ (Reply 34):
Just thought I'd share with you that the rumor at WN is 65 flights a day at PIT by the end of next year. I think that's a little ambitious, but we'll see. Keep your fingers crossed!

That would be great if it is true. I would be hoping for PIT-MHT, but we will see. I would imagine PIT would be very very willing to accommodate WN if this is true.

Quoting FlyDeltaJets87 (Reply 36):
CVG is depressing as a "hub". It's not even close to what it was nearly 3-4 years ago. Heck, on Sunday, my flight taxied from the end of Concourse A closest to 18L out towards 18C; we were between A and B, and there was not a single aircraft at any of the gates in the B Concourse that face towards A. Concourse A has become an extension of the Comair Terminal (Concourse C) as the only flights I've seen going in and out of there recently are operated by regional jets. ATL-CVG used to see a couple widebodies a day on that route alone. Now the only widebodies you'll see at CVG are for the few remaining international flights.

This is a good point. CVG has already experienced some downsizing. I have not gone through CVG in a couple of years, and then it was really busy. Now it seems like I am always going through ATL. Too bad for CVG.