USADreamliner
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Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:27 pm

Airbus expects more orders from Singapore Airlines, which took delivery of its first of 19 A380s this week and said the arrival of superjumbos means it expects to phase out its Boeing 747s within four to five years.
Some of Singapore Airlines' 747 aircraft will be converted to freighter planes for use by its air cargo business.

Singapore Airlines has an option for an additional six A380s. The plane has a list price of $300 million but airlines are usually given deep discounts.
"I think they want to get the airplane into operation now but I think it's inevitable that Singapore will have return orders," Leahy said.


Airbus expects to receive new orders for its A380 superjumbo by the middle of next year from Asian airlines such as Air India and Air China.


http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKSP26696420071017?rpc=44
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:42 pm

SQ needs them to keep EK at bay and protect SIN as a primary "transit hub" between Europe and Oceania/Australia.
 
keesje
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 3:45 pm

I think many have confused initial orders for the A380 with total future requirements, leading to remarks some airlines only need 10-15 A380's as a niche aircraft.

e.g. for BA. They say they will evaluate the 773 and A350 for the replacement of the rest of their 747 fleet.

So..

1. they are not interested in follow-up orders on the A380.
2. they won't evaluate the A380, they already did.

Strangely most seem to go for option 1.
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Sjoerd
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 4:13 pm

Over the coming years reality will kick in... Many more VLA will be needed and Airbus has that market to itself. The B748 cannot offer the same level of space to passengers.

Airbus wasn't gambling when it decided to build the A380.

Sjoerd

[Edited 2007-10-17 09:14:11]
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 4:35 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 2):
I think many have confused initial orders for the A380 with total future requirements, leading to remarks some airlines only need 10-15 A380's as a niche aircraft.

Aye. We need to not look at just the near-term, as the A380 program would be reasonably expected to last until at least 2020-2030.

Quoting Sjoerd (Reply 3):
Airbus wasn't gambling when it decided to build the A380.

They were, in as much every major aircraft program is a gamble.
 
Scorpio
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 4:45 pm

Earlier this week Leahy hinted at getting more A380 orders this year:

http://www.reuters.com/article/tnBas...cIndustries-SP/idUSWEB884620071015

"I think we probably could do more A380s this year," he said.
 
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OA260
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 5:02 pm

Quoting USADreamliner (Thread starter):
phase out its Boeing 747s within four to five years.

So no more SQ 747's in 5 years time !!! How times can change. SQ really seem pleased with their A380 with comments like ''the new queen of the skies''.

It looks like Boeing will lead with their 787 and Airbus will lead in the superjumbo category.
 
art
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 5:28 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 6):
It looks like Boeing will lead with their 787 and Airbus will lead in the superjumbo category.

Yes but how big will those leads be? My guess is the A380 will outsell the B748-I by at least 3:1 whereas the B787 will outsell the A350 by less than 2:1.

Anyway, I think that SIA ought to buy as few or as many A380's as they can fly with good profitability. If they can make good money out of the A380's they introduce in the next year or so, I would expect them to buy more. Why would they choose not to?
 
redflyer
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 5:52 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 4):
We need to not look at just the near-term, as the A380 program would be reasonably expected to last until at least 2020-2030.

You mean the plane will be flying until at least 2020-2030, right? I doubt Airbus will be manufacturing the A380 beyond 2020, at the latest. And this is not intended to be an incendiary comment as Airbus' own product line, not to mention Boeing's, will render the A380 obsolete by then.

Quoting Sjoerd (Reply 3):
B748 cannot offer the same level of space to passengers.

That will be a factor only in the near-term. Over time, the only thing that will matter to the airlines is profitability and not spaciousness and the only thing that will matter to passengers (as it does now), with the exception of very high-end passengers, is ticket price.
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ceo@afg
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 6:11 pm

On another forum I frequent, one poster told of stories from friends of his working in the banking sector in City of London, where there's some fairly substantial loans being set up, rumoured to be for new A380 customers.

Even I acknowledge, this is a rumour worth taking with a pinch of salt, however, I think more A380 orders this year really isn't that far fetched.

Grupo Marsans have acknowledged their A380 order, was a marketing tool for them, history seems to be repeating itself. When the B747 came on the market, many smaller operators felt they couldn't compete properly, without having the aircraft in their fleet. Thus small airlines, such as SAS bought the aircraft without the need for it.
http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/un...marsans-and-the-a380-its.html#more

SIA is saying competing airlines, will be reduced to has beens when the A380 starts competing with airlines without the A380. I really do see that happening, and expect a lot of the airlines currently sitting on the fence waiting to decide, will come down in favour of the A380.

My personal belif, is that most of these airlines will go for the A380 sooner or later:
Cathay
Air China
China Eastern
ANA
Japan Airlines
Air India
Jet Airways
South African
TAM
Air New Zealand
United Airlines
Northwest Airlines
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col
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 6:20 pm

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 8):
That will be a factor only in the near-term. Over time, the only thing that will matter to the airlines is profitability and not spaciousness and the only thing that will matter to passengers (as it does now), with the exception of very high-end passengers, is ticket price.

I believe you have hit the nail on the head. This is exactly why SQ purchased this beast. It gives them the opportunity to offer a very very high end product and a very good low end one. The spaciousness of the 380 gave it the opportunity to cover everything with an excellent running cost. Profitable airlines like SQ continue to be so, by being leaders in as many fields as possible. Wish US Airways would have thought this way instead of the 20 year old me too Business Class Seat!!!

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 8):
You mean the plane will be flying until at least 2020-2030, right? I doubt Airbus will be manufacturing the A380 beyond 2020, at the latest. And this is not intended to be an incendiary comment as Airbus' own product line, not to mention Boeing's, will render the A380 obsolete by then.

Airbus and Boeing working on a new 800 seater????
 
redflyer
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 6:33 pm

Quoting Col (Reply 10):
Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 8):
You mean the plane will be flying until at least 2020-2030, right? I doubt Airbus will be manufacturing the A380 beyond 2020, at the latest. And this is not intended to be an incendiary comment as Airbus' own product line, not to mention Boeing's, will render the A380 obsolete by then.

Airbus and Boeing working on a new 800 seater????

No, Airbus and Boeing working on planes that have better CASM.
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:13 pm

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 8):
You mean the plane will be flying until at least 2020-2030, right? I doubt Airbus will be manufacturing the A380 beyond 2020, at the latest. And this is not intended to be an incendiary comment as Airbus' own product line, not to mention Boeing's, will render the A380 obsolete by then.

I think deliveries for the A380 could last upwards of two decades. She's really going to be the only game in town in her size-range, so top-off and replacement orders will likely trickle in even in the latter part of the next decade or two, just as they now do for the 767 and the 747.
 
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:32 pm

Over at fligthglobal they have an article about the US Army/Navy is looking into the F version as a replacement for old equipment. Even as a replacement for Airforce 1, but I guess that will never happen. I was wondering why that topic has not transferred over here so far.

On the long run, I can well imagine that the 380F will have a strong comeback for civilian as well as military purpose. Of course, many of the 747s will be converted, but with the rise of fuel price, once the 380 lines are running, I am sure it will be busy for many years.
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Glareskin
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:48 pm

Quoting CEO@AFG (Reply 9):
Cathay
Air China
China Eastern
ANA
Japan Airlines
Air India
Jet Airways
South African
TAM
Air New Zealand
United Airlines
Northwest Airlines

Not bad although the last 5 are more questionable. The Japanese getting more likely. Who would have thought that one year ago.....
There's still a long way to go before all the alliances deserve a star...
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 7:50 pm

Quoting Macc (Reply 13):
Over at fligthglobal they have an article about the US Army/Navy is looking into the F version as a replacement for old equipment. Even as a replacement for Airforce 1, but I guess that will never happen. I was wondering why that topic has not transferred over here so far.

Because it is being discussed in the Military Aviation forum, which is the proper forum for it.  Smile
 
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 8:28 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):
She's really going to be the only game in town in her size-range, so top-off and replacement orders will likely trickle in even in the latter part of the next decade or two, just as they now do for the 767 and the 747.

Yes, the only game in town in her size-range will be a very important point within 10 years. There is going to be industry consolidation globally that will result in a general "up gauging" of aircraft size.
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col
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 8:40 pm

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 11):
No, Airbus and Boeing working on planes that have better CASM.

Have you seen the SQ video's on their 380's? Its all about making money, SQ know all about that. The 380 offers SQ the chance to make more from its products. The smaller twins don't have that flexibility, even with lower CASM.
 
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 10:25 pm

Quoting Sjoerd (Reply 3):
Over the coming years reality will kick in... Many more VLA will be needed and Airbus has that market to itself. The B748 cannot offer the same level of space to passengers.

Airbus wasn't gambling when it decided to build the A380.

Airbus either got lucky or thought this through, they said they worked closely with a few carriers when developing the A380, which was probably virgin, qantas, singapore, and emirates. They probably saw that these carriers have huge premium seats and other products, so the A380 works well for them. But when you get down to virgin and BA the A380 gives them space for their premium product, but the A380 might still be too big for them on some routes. For BA and Virgin the 748 is good for routes that need more space but not the size of the A380. But airlines like Singapore and Emirates make so much money (its insane how they can fill a plane) so the 748 isn't needed for them. But airlines will begin realizing that the A380 is great for their premium products on routes like JFK-LHR, but eventually airlines like virgin and BA will see that they need a smaller plane like the 748 to stay efficient and make money. But it definately looks like Airbus got something right, it could turn out that there will be a switch in thinking of the A380 and 748, we could see more A380s in an airline and the 748 as the niche plane.
 
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LTU932
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 10:58 pm

Quoting OA260 (Reply 6):
How times can change. SQ really seem pleased with their A380 with comments like ''the new queen of the skies''.

They seem pleased with what were delivered, but we still have to see what kind of comments SQ will give once the A380 has flown for about a year for them and there's more information available on things such as dispatch reliability at EIS, operating costs in a real world environment (CASM vs RASM), etc.

And this is the final trial for the A380: prove itself in real life service. If it passes these trials, it will boost confidence over the A380 and give it and Airbus more credibility and a better chance of eventually making an ROI on the aircraft. It may take a lot of time for them to get an ROI, but if they do, then it's not because of sales tactics, but because the A380 has proven itself to be an outstanding aircraft and everything it was promissed.
 
dutchjet
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 11:02 pm

Consider this: SQ turns over its fleet much more quickly than most other airlines; this allows them to fly the latest equipment, to sell the older airplanes at good prices, and decreases heavy maintenance expenses. SQ flies most of its airplanes for a period of about 12 to 15 years.

It is very likely that the A380 will be in production for the next 20 to 25 years and Boeing is not planning an airplane is the A388 (or potential A389) size category.....thus in about 10 years time, SQ will likely place orders for new A380s (maybe the A380 Enhanced) to replace the A380s that are now being delivered. Thus, its very likely that SQ will order more A380s in the future: possibly to expand its A380 fleet but definitely to replace early delivery A380s with newer aircraft. SQ lots of 747s over the years...with newer airplanes replacing older ones, so it would not be the first time SQ would replace aircraft with new build versions of the same type.
 
ceo@afg
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 11:24 pm

Glareskin,

I'll admit the last five are a bit suspect, but I'll endeavour to make my case for these 5 operators:

When Grupo Marsans with Aerolineas Argentinas is opting for the A380, this will surely make TAM more interested in the A380. The fact that Varig is a shadow of its former self, and there's a huge growth in people travelling to Brazil, makes TAM a very likely candidate. Constrained airports, in GIG and especially GRU also makes the case more likely.

Air New Zealand is a current operator of the B747-400, and have a rather large competitor in Qantas which is opting for the A380. More airlines are highly likely to employ the A380 on routes to NZ with Emirates and Singapore as prime contenders. As noted earlier by me, Grupo Marsans is using the A380 as a marketing tool. I can easily see airlines managing to lure the regular Joe consumer onto the A380, with the "fly the biggest passenger aircraft in the world" slogans, that are bound to appear as the A380 goes into service. Already with people paying in the region of $100,000 to get on the first SIA A380 flight, there's a lot of interest in the aircraft, from the general public.

South African is a current operator of the B744, although they seem to be on the move out of the fleet in favour of A346s. SAA had quite a upturn in fortunes, up until the monetary speculation deal fell through, and they lost a lot of money. Travel to South Africa is rising fast every year, and SAA is another potential candidate for the A380, particularly since most of the flights to Europe only have a very short time period to leave for Europe, in order for times to be feasible for the passengers, this limits slot availability at some airports, and a larger aircraft could be a solution, if SAA want to add flights, but without the slots to do it. LHR is a major market for SAA, building the case for A380s at SAA further.

The biggest ifs are the US airlines. UAL is in my view the most likely candidate for the A380. They operate a large B744 fleet, and has a "4 class" layout with First, Business, Ecomomy+ and Economy. In order to stay competitive more money has to be spent on the premium products, no other aircraft has the space to do this, other than the A380. SIA will make a lot of money on their new Suites and Business class products, and UAL in particular could be the most likely US candidate to profit from having more space to develop their premium cabins further.

NWA is more uncertain, however rumours are floating around that NWA is looking at the aircraft. NWA operates the first built B744s, delivered from 1989 and onwards, meaning some of the aircraft are nearing 20 years. Even though NWA has a tendency to stick with their old aircraft, I see no reason this should be the case with the B744s, when the DC-10s and B742s are all gone in favour of A330s and the upcoming B787s.

Whether I'm right or not remains to be seen, I do note that the general feeling towards the A380 on this forum, seems to have mellowed slightly after the delivery to SIA. The general mood seems to be in favour of the A380, somewhat reluctantly by some here, but it's refreshing to see that it's dawned on some of the A380 bashers, that the aircraft is here to stay, a bit late off the blocks, but it's turning out to be a very good aircraft, delivering on its promised performance figures with high praise from SIA.
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pnwtraveler
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 11:30 pm

As has been said - this plane needs to be in service for a period of time to do a couple of things before people start leaping and making claims. These are the same things for any new aircraft.

1. Dispatch reliability. If there are problems which crop up and it needs constant maintenance to keep in service then orders will be slow.
2. Performance. To make the aircraft successful the costs to keep the plane flying have to be in line and the returns justify it. If A380's are constantly flying half full when the novelty wears off then that will effect things. No one has a crystal ball until we actually see it happening.
3. Customer response. If people see the value in the A380 and pay the premium to use the seats that convert to beds and other high end amentities it will be a success. If they don't these sections will shrink and it will be replaced by more seats.

The initial orders have been slow. Not unusual for a new aircraft (excepting the huge numbers for the 787). The 747 launched with a lot more airlines involved and having ordered but it was very much an unknown quantity for a while. I know this is shocking for here but everyone is just going to have to be patient for a while to see the results. Hopefully the optimists will be right and the naysayers wrong. As much of the success of the plane is going to be be a result of the economy and nothing to do with the quality of the machine.
 
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Revelation
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 11:33 pm

Quoting Sjoerd (Reply 3):
Over the coming years reality will kick in... Many more VLA will be needed and Airbus has that market to itself. The B748 cannot offer the same level of space to passengers.

Airbus wasn't gambling when it decided to build the A380.

No, a gambler wouldn't accept such poor odds.

Orders will be at best in the dozens per year, not in the 100s per year like A350/B787. One reason the A350 is so late to the party is the money and manpower being poured into the A380 bottomless pit.
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LTU932
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Wed Oct 17, 2007 11:56 pm

Quoting CEO@AFG (Reply 21):
When Grupo Marsans with Aerolineas Argentinas is opting for the A380, this will surely make TAM more interested in the A380. The fact that Varig is a shadow of its former self, and there's a huge growth in people travelling to Brazil, makes TAM a very likely candidate. Constrained airports, in GIG and especially GRU also makes the case more likely.

Why would JJ even need an aircraft the size of the A380, when they already have something big yet smaller than the A380 on order with the 77W? In the case of Grupo Marsans, one could argue that since A7 and AR operate 747s, they may have a need for a new VLA. Then again, I believe the Marsans order doesn't make any sense because AR would most likely just operate the A380 on their EZE-MAD route and who knows what markets would justify the A380 for A7. JJ never even operated a VLA at all and with their order for the 77W, they seem to indicate that they don't want a 525 seater, when all they need is just a 350 seater for their trunk routes.
 
exFATboy
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 12:01 am

Quoting CEO@AFG (Reply 9):
When the B747 came on the market, many smaller operators felt they couldn't compete properly, without having the aircraft in their fleet. Thus small airlines, such as SAS bought the aircraft without the need for it.

True, but it was a different world back then - US carriers were regulated, and most of the rest of the world was not only regulated, but had a goverment-owned "flag carrier" that could afford to buy the 747 in part simply for the prestige. Most of the carriers are private now, and even those that aren't are expected to maintain financial discipline. I don't think we'll see "prestige" orders for the A380.

Quoting CEO@AFG (Reply 21):
The biggest ifs are the US airlines. UAL is in my view the most likely candidate for the A380.

I'm not sure - UA has shown a willingness to experiment with alternate products. I could see UA answering the premium-cabin challenge with a "p.s."-like product to supplement their current Asian flights, using 777s in the near term and 787/A350s when they become available.
 
qantas787
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 12:47 am

I can't get over the told you so attitude on here about some sales of the 380. Did any of you really expect them not to sell some of them? Of course they will sell more 380's just don't wet your pants every time it happens. The sales will come in dribbles and then occasionally in a burst, don't try to analyse every single sale as if the whole world is sitting on the edge of their seats.
G'day
 
pnwtraveler
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 1:21 am

Haha. Half of the excess verbage on this site would disappear if people didn't sit on the edge of their seats and over analize everything. It would actually be a great discussion instead of a bunch of mud slinging. I thought nothing would match the stuff you see on the sports forums but I was wrong.  Big grin
 
astuteman
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 5:47 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 23):
One reason the A350 is so late to the party is the money and manpower being poured into the A380 bottomless pit.

Airbus made 2 mistakes.

One was screwing up the wiring on the A380

One was completely underestimating the 787.

There's no reason why the correct execution of the A380 couldn't have led to a powerful and credible 787 rival by c.2010.

Deciding to launch the A380 wasn't a mistake.

Regards
 
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mariner
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 6:49 am

Quoting CEO@AFG (Reply 9):
Air India

Air India looks promising.

http://www.business-standard.com/com...=301611&leftnm=1&subLeft=0&chkFlg=

"According to Airbus, India’s national carrier, Air India, is considering buying ten Airbus A380s and another eight to ten as options."

But I'm not so sure about Air New Zealand.

Quoting CEO@AFG (Reply 21):
Air New Zealand is a current operator of the B747-400, and have a rather large competitor in Qantas which is opting for the A380. More airlines are highly likely to employ the A380 on routes to NZ with Emirates and Singapore as prime contenders.

While that may be true, I think Air NZ has hitched it's wagon to another star, and other concepts. If they wanted a 747 replacement, I think they would have gone for the 748.

I'd love to see Air NZ with the A380 - especially if Qantas brings it through here for trans-Pacific - but I don't think it is probable.

mariner
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Wsp
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 7:06 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 28):
One was completely underestimating the 787.

There's no reason why the correct execution of the A380 couldn't have led to a powerful and credible 787 rival by c.2010.

Bringing out a A330 replacement by 2010 sounds like a really bad idea to me. Judging from the orders the A330 will be generating quite some cash in the near term. Why spend billions to kill your own cash cow prematurely?
 
9v-svc
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 7:21 am

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 28):
Airbus made 2 mistakes.

One was screwing up the wiring on the A380

One was completely underestimating the 787.

There's no reason why the correct execution of the A380 couldn't have led to a powerful and credible 787 rival by c.2010.

Deciding to launch the A380 wasn't a mistake.

Regards

I am sorry but I have to disagree with your theory.

They have make a few mistakes but look at them now ? Clinching important orders for both the A380 and A350 this year so far. I don't think they did that badly after a few hiccups. To clinch an order from SQ for the A350XWB has definately kept itself in the race against the Boeing 787. Don't forget there are still more orders up for grabs in regards to the 787/350. Who ? CX, EK, GF (Just to name these few).
Airliners is the wings of my life.
 
andessmf
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 7:22 am

The delivery of the first A380 is only the end of the beginning. From this point forward, only real world data will determine the future success of the A380. The performance rumor mill in a.net will have its final nail struck.

May I remind aviation fans that many airplanes never filled the niche they were designed for, but succeeded wildly in other ways (757 as 727 replacement comes to mind).

The only problem I see with airlines competing with the A380, is that if they get into a 'me too' competition on a particular route, the capacity increase may decrease revenue.
 
columba
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 7:50 am

Quoting OA260 (Reply 6):
So no more SQ 747's in 5 years time !!! How times can change. SQ really seem pleased with their A380 with comments like ''the new queen of the skies''.

For me it is amazing that SQ and QF long time 747 customers have no completely switched to the A380.

Quoting CEO@AFG (Reply 9):
My personal belif, is that most of these airlines will go for the A380 sooner or later:
Cathay
Air China
China Eastern
ANA
Japan Airlines
Air India
Jet Airways
South African
TAM
Air New Zealand
United Airlines
Northwest Airlines

I have doubts about NZ but all the others are on my list, too. I guess we will see some surprises as well. Who of us has thought of Air Comet and AR.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
trent1000
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 8:10 am

Quoting Col (Reply 17):
Its all about making money, SQ know all about that. The 380 offers SQ the chance to make more from its products.

Reports this week stating anything from 25% - 50% and even 50% - 80% higher than the 747 first class fares for the A380 first class suites: one report calculating about a $12000 per hour ride in the A380 suites. With such huge variations in the premium quoted, can somebody clarify this? (Slightly off the topic of this thread I know, but with so many A380 threads, hard to know where to post & also to avoid starting another one).
 
speedygonzales
Posts: 518
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 9:33 am

Quoting Trent1000 (Reply 34):
Reports this week stating anything from 25% - 50% and even 50% - 80% higher than the 747 first class fares for the A380 first class suites: one report calculating about a $12000 per hour ride in the A380 suites. With such huge variations in the premium quoted, can somebody clarify this? (Slightly off the topic of this thread I know, but with so many A380 threads, hard to know where to post & also to avoid starting another one).

Round trip fares in first/suites SIN-SYD excl. tax, 19-28.02.08, from www.singaporeair.com:
2*747: 7200 S$
747+380: 9801 S$
2*380: 10500 S$
Las Malvinas son Argentinas
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:02 am

Quoting CEO@AFG (Reply 21):
When Grupo Marsans with Aerolineas Argentinas is opting for the A380, this will surely make TAM more interested in the A380. The fact that Varig is a shadow of its former self, and there's a huge growth in people travelling to Brazil, makes TAM a very likely candidate. Constrained airports, in GIG and especially GRU also makes the case more likely.

Hmmmm - not convinced. Depends how they see LH and BA's A380 operations to GIG/GRU impacting their business. I still think the 77W is big enough for them right now and will likely be so for five or six years but nothing is out of the question - id say they are 40% likely.

Quoting CEO@AFG (Reply 21):
Air New Zealand is a current operator of the B747-400, and have a rather large competitor in Qantas which is opting for the A380. More airlines are highly likely to employ the A380 on routes to NZ with Emirates and Singapore as prime contenders. As noted earlier by me, Grupo Marsans is using the A380 as a marketing tool. I can easily see airlines managing to lure the regular Joe consumer onto the A380, with the "fly the biggest passenger aircraft in the world" slogans, that are bound to appear as the A380 goes into service. Already with people paying in the region of $100,000 to get on the first SIA A380 flight, there's a lot of interest in the aircraft, from the general public

I think they could profitably run a fleet of six A380s just on the LHR run. Whether they will is another matter. Give it ten years and we'll see. I'd say they are 40% likely.

Quoting CEO@AFG (Reply 21):
South African is a current operator of the B744, although they seem to be on the move out of the fleet in favour of A346s. SAA had quite a upturn in fortunes, up until the monetary speculation deal fell through, and they lost a lot of money. Travel to South Africa is rising fast every year, and SAA is another potential candidate for the A380, particularly since most of the flights to Europe only have a very short time period to leave for Europe, in order for times to be feasible for the passengers, this limits slot availability at some airports, and a larger aircraft could be a solution, if SAA want to add flights, but without the slots to do it. LHR is a major market for SAA, building the case for A380s at SAA further.

I think if they could find a way of not having to park their big expensive A380s on the ground all day at LHR waiting for their return overnighters then they would have leapt on the bandwagon already. VS, BA, LH, AF are all more than likely to use the A380 to CPT and/or JNB and I feel SA may be compelled to get the A380 at some stage. I also think they would do well with one to the US as well, which they currently use the 744/A346 on. 50% chance.

Quoting Columba (Reply 33):

Air China

Bound to - am amazed they havent already. 90% chance.

Quoting Columba (Reply 33):
Cathay

80% chance. They will get a VLA and I just do not think the 748I is big enough for the routes they want to use the VLA on. Why buy a smaller one when you can fill a bigger one already? I know many think otherwise but I am firmly convinced CX will go A388. 80% chance I think.

Quoting Columba (Reply 33):
China Eastern

Shanghai is a massively growing hub for a massively growing city. By the time they could get one, I feel MU wont be able to do without one frankly. Nailed on A380 order in 2008 or 2009. 90% chance.

Quoting Columba (Reply 33):
ANA
Japan Airlines

I think if either want a VLA (and both seem to be coming round to this idea) then they will both go 748I. I'd be very surprised to see them order the A380, but of the two, probably NH is slightly more likely. 30% chance we see an order from either, and almost no chance they both do in the next ten years.

Quoting Columba (Reply 33):
Air India

Yup - can totally see it. 70% chance. Once the AI and IA merger completes I think it is very likely.

Quoting Columba (Reply 33):
Jet Airways

I would be absolutely amazed if they dont order in the next two years if purely for the amount of space it gives them for their jawdroppingly wonderful premium product. If Jet do then expect AI to follow suit fairly sharpish.

Quoting Columba (Reply 33):
United Airlines, Northwest

Hmmm. On paper it makes a lot of sense and they certainly would be able to fill them and do very well with them TransPac. I think they will probably have to get some VLAs but if JL and NH dont order then it may well be a standoff. I think NW and UA will go A350 and get the 1000 model in big numbers to replace their 744 fleets. Both could use the A380 - if give it 50% one will order and a 20% chance they both will.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
astuteman
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:14 am

Quoting Wsp (Reply 30):
Bringing out a A330 replacement by 2010 sounds like a really bad idea to me. Judging from the orders the A330 will be generating quite some cash in the near term. Why spend billions to kill your own cash cow prematurely?

Yet that was the original window for the A350.......
I was only really responding to the comment that spending/commitment on the A380 has delayed the A350. It needn't have done...

Quoting 9V-SVC (Reply 31):
I am sorry but I have to disagree with your theory.

You sounded like you were agreeing, to me.
I certainly agree with you.

I can only consider a 2 year delay caused by a software interface mismanagement a mistake.
I think Airbus underestimated the 787 (if for no other reason than they themselves admit this...)

Launching the A380, IMO wasn't a mistake. The two points above IMO have been the real cause of Airbus's recent woes.
Nevertheless, they certainly seem to be turning the corner.

Regards
 
Burkhard
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 10:15 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):
I think deliveries for the A380 could last upwards of two decades. She's really going to be the only game in town in her size-range, so top-off and replacement orders will likely trickle in even in the latter part of the next decade or two, just as they now do for the 767 and the 747.

I agree. Like with the 747, the 737s, even already the A330, the aircraft delivered in twenty years will not be identical to the one delivered now. New materials will be applied when available and offering an advantage. Part of them will be composites, part maybe Lithium based - so I do not expect an A380-800 to be delivered in 2027, but the complete concept will remain - and as more and more airports get slot limited, I see increasing sales numbers over the years unless B succeeds to offer an aircraft of same size and far better efficiency.
 
DavidByrne
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 12:42 pm

Quoting CEO@AFG (Reply 21):
Air New Zealand is a current operator of the B747-400, and have a rather large competitor in Qantas which is opting for the A380. More airlines are highly likely to employ the A380 on routes to NZ with Emirates and Singapore as prime contenders.

Never say never, but I'd be extremely surprised if NZ bought the A380, even in 15 years' time. NZ's niche is to use smaller (789) aircraft to serve more diverse routes to the North America and Europe. Because of its geographical position, NZ is uniquely placed to serve Europe via either Asia or North America and future diversification away from LHR could include FRA or MUC, and MAN. The recently ordered 77Ws will serve AKL-HKG-LHR and AKL-LAX-LHR from delivery (starting 2010) and will be less than 10 years old in 2020. The 772s will also be around for most of this time, of not all of it. What will replace the 77Ws eventually? Who knows, but I'd bet on a twin, not the A380.

And I wouldn't bet on other carriers serving AKL or CHC with A380s soon, though EK might well use it on its AKL-SYD and AKL-MEL tags. Their CHC-SYD and AKL-BNE tags look much less likely.
This is not my beautiful house . . . This is not my beautiful wife
 
redflyer
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:54 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 28):
Airbus made 2 mistakes.

One was screwing up the wiring on the A380

One was completely underestimating the 787.

There's no reason why the correct execution of the A380 couldn't have led to a powerful and credible 787 rival by c.2010.

I'm not so sure the wiring or lack of proper execution of the A380 had anything to do with the lack of a powerful and credible 787 rival by 2010. It had everything to do with underestimating the 787. Airbus had proposed the A350 (the original 4 or 5 versions) long before the A380 fiasco had come to light.

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 28):
Deciding to launch the A380 wasn't a mistake.

I think the jury is still out on that one and will be until the A380 program turns cash-positive, which at this point does not seem very likely. Perhaps the airlines that have bought it don't think it was a mistake, but then they haven't gone into a financial black hole like Airbus has either. The question I like to ask is: notwithstanding the wiring problems on the A380, if Airbus could do it all over again knowing what they know now, would they have launched the program when they did?
My other home is a Piper Cherokee 180C
 
astuteman
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:56 pm

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 40):
I'm not so sure the wiring or lack of proper execution of the A380 had anything to do with the lack of a powerful and credible 787 rival by 2010. It had everything to do with underestimating the 787

FWIW I agree completely, and IIRC Airbus has admitted as such

Quoting RedFlyer (Reply 40):
I think the jury is still out on that one and will be until the A380 program turns cash-positive, which at this point does not seem very likely

Quite possibly not, but it's difficult to see how the programme wouldn't have been capable of turning cash positive fairly soon, if the delays hadn't occurred.
They have 190 ish firm orders, and the 20 "F" cancellations would almost certainly never have happened, and might well have become 20 more options instead without the delay. Delivery slots available 2 years earlier than they are now could also be expected to result in some additional sales.
The programme could have been within a spit of break-even by now, just 18 months after EIS.

Speculation of course, and now we'll never know. But.......

Regards
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 13747
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:17 pm

Quoting Astuteman (Reply 28):
Airbus made 2 mistakes.

One was screwing up the wiring on the A380

One was completely underestimating the 787.

There's no reason why the correct execution of the A380 couldn't have led to a powerful and credible 787 rival by c.2010.

Deciding to launch the A380 wasn't a mistake.

If one looks back to 2000 to the commercial launch, one sees A320 and A330 going gangbusters, A340 holding its own against the then-current 777s, nothing to compete against B747, A380 break-even forecast to break even in the low-200s of frames. Sounds reasonable enough. With strong hindsight, one can speculate if they hadn't put money into A340-500/600 and gone for a large twin to span the range from 777-200 to 747-400, but we'll never know, will we?

I think that's one of the biggest problems with the A380. Everyone at Airbus got themselves so wrapped up with the glory of building the world's largest airliner, they didn't think much about what else they could be doing with the time and the money.

Quoting 9V-SVC (Reply 31):
They have make a few mistakes but look at them now ? Clinching important orders for both the A380 and A350 this year so far. I don't think they did that badly after a few hiccups.

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

The A380 screw-ups have put Airbus into the red for two years running, pushed the break-even point off the edge of the map, and have let Boeing march out to a huge order lead in the midrange. I suppose if we ignore all that, things look fine!

Granted, this year is better than the last few, but one certainly didn't think it'd be worse, no?

Airbus have to finish up the rework of the first 28 A380s, continue to fill the A380 order book to the break-even point, work through the Power8 issues, and get to A350 FCS before I think they are out of the woods.
Inspiration, move me brightly!
 
AirbusA6
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 7:45 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 42):
I think that's one of the biggest problems with the A380. Everyone at Airbus got themselves so wrapped up with the glory of building the world's largest airliner, they didn't think much about what else they could be doing with the time and the money.

At the time (2000) their existing products were
A320 - market leader or at least 50% share, so no need to replace it
A330 - market leader in the lower wide bodied twin sector, against the declining 767, so no need to replace it
A340 - a decent orderbook for the A346, which at the time SEEMED to be competiting healthily against the 777 - the A340 was barely 10 years old, so it was hardly time to throw it away and produce a new big twin!

Where could they expand??? The VLA market! Boeing had had a monopoly for 30 years, and as a result was making fat profits on the 747. Airbus wanted a piece of this market.

That Airbus screwed up the development of the A380 is a separate issue, there was a logic to launching it, but shame about the execution!
it's the bus to stansted (now renamed National Express a6 to ruin my username)
 
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Stitch
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Thu Oct 18, 2007 9:37 pm

Whether or not Airbus will ever make money off the A380 program is, at this point. "air over the wing".

I will note, however, that the market for a VLA was likely more "rosy" than "reality", in that the 77W and A346 were already eating into the 747's market where raw capacity was not the primary driver.

The A380 will sell for that reason alone, and I more and more am coming to see the 747-8I (but not the -8F*) as a way to just make each of those sales less-profitable and not as a serious competitor to the A380, which I feel will win the vast (80%+) of the RFPs because it just plain is the better plane.


* The -8F might have been planned to do the same to the A380F, but ended up getting a lucky kill-shot.
 
AirbusA6
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RE: Airbus Expects More A380 Orders From SIA

Fri Oct 19, 2007 11:37 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 44):
* The -8F might have been planned to do the same to the A380F, but ended up getting a lucky kill-shot.

The front opening nose will always give 747 freighters a unique advantage over the competition - it's highly unlikely any future airliner will be able to have such an option.
it's the bus to stansted (now renamed National Express a6 to ruin my username)

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