mirrodie
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"How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:17 pm

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com...dels/BoeingBendsThePlaneTruth.aspx


I was a bit surprised to read email and come across this article on MSN this morning. While the article is geared toward investors, I'm wondering how the aviation community perceives the article.
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AeroWesty
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:25 pm

Quoting Mirrodie (Thread starter):
"How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"  

The article was about accounting tricks and the effect on earnings and stock price. Where does the article even hint that "Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"? In what way? They're just a bit late.
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redflyer
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:25 pm

Nice "I told you so" piece, but there's not really much substance to it. Besides, the guy is still standing by his -- wrong -- premise from last year, which was:

Quote:
All I had observed was that Boeing in the past had rarely built a new aircraft on time when the planes were constructed in the Greater Seattle area.

It's actually the opposite, which is that Boeing in the past had rarely built a new aircraft late. So he took a wild guess last year based on hearsay in the aviation community and he comes up right. That does not mean his analysis was good nor that Boeing was playing with less than a full deck of cards.
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kc135topboom
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:43 pm

It just shows how most investors don't understand what they are investing in. Those who bought Boeing stock (ticker BA) based on the fact Boeing was selling B-787s all over the place, had no idea just how much of a leap forward in technology it is.

Now Boeing announced a 6 month delay in the B-787 program, and investors bail out?

Are they really as stupid as they appear to be?

The delay is really nothing and does not effect the long range timing of the B-787 deliveries. Yes, Boeing will probibly pay out a few penalties to NH, JL, and NW. But, it seems they have excepted that.

You would think this new program is the first ever to be delayed. Well, it is not, and (so far) it is only 6 months, and the first flight is still scheduled for next month. The delay is all based on spinning the subcontractors up with their production (stuffing barrel sections, etc.) It seems to me the A-380 program had 3 different delays, for a total of 2 years, and they still don't have a production certificate.
 
UnknownUser
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:50 pm

What an idiot, he has no idea what he is talking about. Very typical, though.
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jonathan-l
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 2:54 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 3):
and the first flight is still scheduled for next month

Well that's not true
 
keesje
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:26 pm

Everybody that dared to say a lot of new technology involved on the 787 meant risking delays and doubted the aircraft would fly / be delivered on time was personally attacked, deleted and ridiculed here on a.net.

Now that reality is kicking in, they are attacked for arrogance, lack of knowledge, "I told you so" by the same folks when they refer to documented statements on the subject.

Embarrassing IMO.
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mirrodie
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:31 pm

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 1):
Where does the article even hint that "Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"? In what way?

I'd attach a screenshot, but I'm in a hurry. But if you type in www.msn.com, toward the middle right of the page, that was the headline that caught my eye. It worked.

it says:

Money
How Boeing blew it on Dreamliner BofA misses big on earnings Best 'starter cities' for young couples Money expert: What I got wrong Best Buy pulls plug on analog TVs
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mrocktor
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:32 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 6):
Everybody that dared to say a lot of new technology involved on the 787 meant risking delays and doubted the aircraft would fly / be delivered on time was personally attacked, deleted and ridiculed here on a.net.

Indeed. Been there.

Cost - Schedule - Performance (i.e. Technology). One of the three had to give, and IMO Boeing has been wise in managing the problem (though it would have been wiser to not paint itself into that corner in the first place).
 
sunrisevalley
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:45 pm

Quoting Mrocktor (Reply 8):
Cost - Schedule - Performance (i.e. Technology). One of the three had to give, and IMO Boeing has been wise in managing the problem (though it would have been wiser to not paint itself into that corner in the first place).


And it was the schedule part that cost Mike Bair his job running the project. In the September web cast he was much too insistent that all was well when it wasn't.
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pnwtraveler
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:50 pm

Often the best returns come from venture with a degree of risk to them. If you want safe stay in the blue chip stocks. If you want higher returns in a shorter period you have to up your tolerance of risk. Any investor that bails at this stage with the 787 will be very sorry they did so when things are really humming. The 767 tanker order should rightly have more impact that the 787 at this stage. If an investor needs to bail at this stage they shouldn't have been in the game anyways.
 
DIA
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 3:51 pm

Funny I came across this topic. I emailed MSN on this article about an hour ago...told them the culmination of my thoughts, which is pretty much in-line with the majority of the replies above.
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AF2323
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:22 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 3):
It seems to me the A-380 program had 3 different delays, for a total of 2 years

Actually, it's 18 months late, not 2 years.
 
Carls
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:22 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 3):
Are they really as stupid as they appear to be?

No one is stupid because they don't know about AC, I think you went too far with your post.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 3):
the first flight is still scheduled for next month.

You are wrong, first flight will be next year.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 3):
It seems to me the A-380 program had 3 different delays, for a total of 2 years, and they still don't have a production certificate.

A380 has nothing to do here.
 
StarCityFlyr
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:53 pm

Speaking strictly from a passenger perspective, I think the writer in the MSN article is full of baloney. He reminds me of most of the "whiny know-it-all Wall Street" types that don't have a clue as to what is happening in the real world.

Did Boeing have an aggressive schedule for the Dreamliner? Sure. That's what Wall Street expected and demanded. Is Boeing wise for delaying the program until the issues are worked out? YES! It would be far more catastrophic on the company to put a product out in the market that is flawed in any way shape or form that could potentially be life threatening just to get it out early or on some time schedule that is put forth just to appease Wall Street. Talk about a screaming Wall Street...now that would do it.

I prefer Boeing to fly a safe and well tested airframe before selling it to the market. Same holds true for Airbus or any other aircraft manufacturer.

Just my two cents worth.
 
redflyer
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 5:09 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 6):
Everybody that dared to say a lot of new technology involved on the 787 meant risking delays and doubted the aircraft would fly / be delivered on time was personally attacked, deleted and ridiculed

Yes, the 787 has a lot of new technology. But did it occur to anyone that Boeing already "baked" into the project schedule contingencies? So had Boeing said back in 2004 when they launched the program that EIS would be 2009 (or 2010), would the naysayers have shut up or would people still have been saying "a lot of new technology involved on the 787 means risking delays"? At what point is enough development time enough?

In the final analysis, the delays on the 787 seem to have very little to do with all the whiz-bang technology and everything to do with the supply chain. So despite the fact this analyst's predictions came to fruition, they are for all the reasons he did NOT predict.
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Stitch
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 5:24 pm

The author penned an article last year that claimed Boeing would be late with the 787 and the company's shares would plummet.

Well, she's late and the shares remain stable (some movement, but nothing dramatic). So he has to pen a new article spreading more doom and gloom to try and knock the shares down some more (just checking my iPhone and BA is up $0.86) to bring his "prophecy" true.

I guess he's taking lessons from Richard A. on spin... Big grin
 
justloveplanes
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 5:24 pm

Well, they haven't blown the Dreamliner, but the shine is off the silver. The have lost a big part of their PR advantage over Airbus. That PR perception was a strong sales tool in negotiating that they just lost. All the justifcations are valid, but this really negates a big advantage Boeing had. If they can somehow get the bird off 3 months instead of 6 months late, it will help, but a clink in the armor is a clink in the armor.
 
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Stitch
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 5:26 pm

Quoting Justloveplanes (Reply 17):
Well, they haven't blown the Dreamliner, but the shine is off the silver. The have lost a big part of their PR advantage over Airbus. That PR perception was a strong sales tool in negotiating that they just lost.

Bah. They still have close to four times the sales and will still enter service years before the A350, which itself may encounter problems (knock on wood it doesn't). Hence the reason the stock has remained stable.
 
isitsafenow
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 5:28 pm

The world isn't going to gloom and doom, folks. Boeing still sold over 700 of the 787 and the best is yet to come in a couple of years when the model -3 goes up for sale. This is the domestic version that will take the place of th 767.
safe
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N62NA
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 6:24 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 3):
Now Boeing announced a 6 month delay in the B-787 program, and investors bail out?

Are they really as stupid as they appear to be?

Well, stupid investors would bail. Traders on the other hand have no interest in investing and are much more hair trigger when it comes to when to buy and when to sell.

Quoting StarCityFlyr (Reply 14):
Speaking strictly from a passenger perspective, I think the writer in the MSN article is full of baloney. He reminds me of most of the "whiny know-it-all Wall Street" types that don't have a clue as to what is happening in the real world.

People on Main Street invest, people on Wall Street trade, hence the disconnect from the "real world."
 
WAH64D
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 7:10 pm

Quoting Isitsafenow (Reply 19):
The world isn't going to gloom and doom, folks. Boeing still sold over 700 of the 787 and the best is yet to come in a couple of years when the model -3 goes up for sale. This is the domestic version that will take the place of th 767.
safe

I'm afraid I disagree with that. The B787-3 is/will be a pig of an aircraft. Way too heavy for the range/missions it can fly. Lack of any competition in its sector and "niche-ism" for the Japanese domestic market explains its orders so far (exclusively Japanese). I can't see any of the US/European majors ordering that aircraft. Only 43 B787-3s have been ordered as opposed to 547 B787-8s and 120 B787-9s, I don't see many more -3s being ordered.
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Stitch
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 7:13 pm

Quoting WAH64D (Reply 21):
I'm afraid I disagree with that.

And I am afraid I have to agree with that disagreement.

If the 787-3 flies outside of Asia and India, I'll be incredulous...
 
isitsafenow
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 7:22 pm

Boeing has more time to work the bugs out of the model 3 than it does with the models 7 or 8.
I was referring to replacing the 767-200's which are mid 1980 and late 1980 vintage airplanes.
The timing is right to start to replace these in 2010 thru apx 2014. As you know, some model 200s have
already been scrapped.
The is nothing else out there AT THIS TIME to compete with the model 3 sales window.
safe
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Alessandro
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 8:09 pm

Nothing said about the B748? Is the delay of this aircraft due to B787 problems, they share a lot of new technology....
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DAYflyer
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 8:39 pm

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 3):
Are they really as stupid as they appear to be?

Yes. Show them a 777 and they think it is a 787 every time.

Quoting Justloveplanes (Reply 17):
The have lost a big part of their PR advantage over Airbus.

Some of it anyway. I do fear further delays could seriously dampen the enthusiasm of the program.
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art
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 8:58 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 6):
Everybody that dared to say a lot of new technology involved on the 787 meant risking delays and doubted the aircraft would fly / be delivered on time was personally attacked, deleted and ridiculed here on a.net.

True. Any sign of revisionist thinking (a la Boeing might have to revise its delivery schedule) was roundly condemned by the members of the Central Committee of the Boeing Is Infallible And Can Do No Wrong Party.  Smile
 
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Stitch
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 9:22 pm

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 24):
Nothing said about the B748? Is the delay of this aircraft due to B787 problems, they share a lot of new technology....

FWIW, I overheard some 747-8I engineers at lunch the other day and they were talking as if the program was still on plan.
 
justloveplanes
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 9:23 pm

Quoting StarCityFlyr (Reply 14):
Did Boeing have an aggressive schedule for the Dreamliner? Sure. That's what Wall Street expected and demanded. Is Boeing wise for delaying the program until the issues are worked out? YES!

I don't think Wise is the right word. They really don't have a choice.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 18):
Bah. They still have close to four times the sales and will still enter service years before the A350, which itself may encounter problems (knock on wood it doesn't). Hence the reason the stock has remained stable.

The stock is leveling off, and imaging Leahy in the sales meeting last month for an A350:

{JL} Mr. Customer, our advance New, All-new, formerly NB now XWB will be ready in 2013 and be superior in every conceivable way. Even the name is better...yada, yada.....

{MC} Yes O SmoothOne, but can you deliver on time with no doubts about engineering for us to wring our hands over. I I don't lilike ulcers. Remember the A380 and your constantly changing A350?

{JL} Well, ah , well, ah, well, we've fixed everything!!! And we'll give you a tremendous break on the price to win your confidence back, we know you run a tight ship.....

The same conversation this week:

{JL} Mr. Customer, our advance New, All-new, formerly NB now XWB will be ready in 2013 and be superior in every conceivable way. Even the name is better...yada, yada.....

{MC} Yes O SmoothOne, but can you deliver on time with no doubts about engineering for us to wring our hands over. I I don't lilike ulcers. Remember the A380 and your constantly changing A350?

{JL} Well, we belive we can, but as you can see, these problems beset ALL aircraft makers equally and are unpredictable, just look at BOEING and what happened to them last week. You see, delivery should not be your concern, we are all on equal footing, no additional risk there.....
 
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Stitch
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 9:27 pm

Quoting Justloveplanes (Reply 28):
{JL} Well, we belive we can, but as you can see, these problems beset ALL aircraft makers equally and are unpredictable, just look at BOEING and what happened to them last week. You see, delivery should not be your concern, we are all on equal footing, no additional risk there.....

And yet, even with the delays, Boeing will have been building and delivering 787s for years and years and years before Airbus delivers their first one... I tend to think that fact would instill a bit more confidence in Boeing getting them their planes in 2013 then Airbus' comments that "hey, everyone is late now and then".  Wink
 
FAEDC3
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 11:39 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 16):
Well, she's late and the shares remain stable (some movement, but nothing dramatic). So he has to pen a new article spreading more doom and gloom to try and knock the shares down some more (just checking my iPhone and BA is up $0.86) to bring his "prophecy" true.

Sorry but no, shares had not been leveling off, stock has fallen more than $10 since Oct 1st, and has not jumped back to 105 per share. Todays closing price was $94.94/share

It is important to note that as said before: This article intentions are to point out the fact that coming out of the closet on the delay after Q3 has ended is not right, they knew before and that is going to be looked at sometime soon.

I work advising big corporations on their investment portfolios, and my firm is immersed in the research and analysis thing. We hear most of the conference calls, and basically know how the market or its participants "thinks".

I think that some members are barking at the wrong tree.

just my 2 cents

FAEDC3
 
FAEDC3
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Thu Oct 18, 2007 11:43 pm

Sorry a typo,  ashamed  closing price was $96.94/share today
 
AirNZ
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Fri Oct 19, 2007 12:06 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 3):
It seems to me the A-380 program had 3 different delays, for a total of 2 years, and they still don't have a production certificate.



Quoting Stitch (Reply 18):
They still have close to four times the sales and will still enter service years before the A350,

Can someone explain to me why you feel the need to bring A380 and A350 into the discussion on an article exclusively about Boeing??? Is there some strange, vain and insatiable need to 'justify'?
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EI321
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Fri Oct 19, 2007 12:13 am

Quoting Isitsafenow (Reply 19):
Boeing still sold over 700 of the 787 and the best is yet to come in a couple of years when the model -3 goes up for sale. This is the domestic version that will take the place of th 767.
safe

The 787-3 is already for sale. It is not selling very well, for reasons outlined above.
 
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Stitch
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Fri Oct 19, 2007 12:37 am

Quoting FAEDC3 (Reply 30):
Sorry but no, shares had not been leveling off, stock has fallen more than $10 since Oct 1st, and has not jumped back to 105 per share. Todays closing price was $96.94/share

And it's 52-week high is $30 more then it's 52-week low. And it's doubled over the last three years. And it's beating the returns of other stocks in it's sector for the past six months, at least.

Hardly a financial calamity on the order of the author's claims...

Quoting AirNZ (Reply 32):
Can someone explain to me why you feel the need to bring A380 and A350 into the discussion on an article exclusively about Boeing??? Is there some strange, vain and insatiable need to 'justify'?

Hey, Justloveplanes was the one who stated that Boeing now being late on the 787 means it no longer has any advantages to offer against the A350 in terms of delivery. I was just pointing out that the 787 did indeed have a number of advantages to offer against the A350 in terms of delivery.
 
EI321
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Fri Oct 19, 2007 12:41 am

Guys regards to stock prices just bear in mind that we are not in normal market conditions.
 
redflyer
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Fri Oct 19, 2007 1:20 am

Quoting EI321 (Reply 35):
Guys regards to stock prices just bear in mind that we are not in normal market conditions.

When or what is considered "normal" market conditions?
My other home is in the sky inside my Piper Cherokee 180.
 
FAEDC3
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Fri Oct 19, 2007 1:40 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 34):
And it's 52-week high is $30 more then it's 52-week low. And it's doubled over the last three years. And it's beating the returns of other stocks in it's sector for the past six months, at least.

Hardly a financial calamity on the order of the author's claims...

You are right Stitch, one helluva stock, there is no question about it. But let me clarify my post:

- The stock is not levelling off, is has fallen, that is a fact.
- The fall started on Oct.1 st. and has been impulsed by the delay announcement, Fact
- It has been mentioned that it looks fishy to say the least that Boeing´s executives decided to announce the delay right after Q3 was finished. Fact.
- Announcing the delay, and thus, delaying the fall of the stock past the closing of Q3 means $$, Fact
- The article as said is pointing that it makes the investors (the suspicious, summing it up to the story banks are telling on the Sub prime investments, and also to the position of the FED. The Boeing case (mention) is only a third of the context, and the purpose of the article (if you read it complete) is to question the bending of the truth.
 
AviationNut
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Fri Oct 19, 2007 2:08 am

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 3):
It just shows how most investors don't understand what they are investing in. Those who bought Boeing stock (ticker BA) based on the fact Boeing was selling B-787s all over the place, had no idea just how much of a leap forward in technology it is.

You are spot on KC135TopBoom, the ordinary investor on the street wouldn't know about the principles of flight, let alone the latest materials being used in the construction of the modern day aircraft. They wouldn't know the difference between a RAT and a Rotation

From forward to aft this aircraft is brand spanking new in its development and if you want to sink money into something like this you would have to be prepared to do your homework and at the very least be educated about Risk.You would have to have experience in riding the highs and lows of the retail Stockmarket as the production progresses. For those who know about the Risks of investing this won't be a huge worry, there are many different approaches in investing to circum navigate a profit or loss.

I don't feel for anyone that has sunk money into a company, especially a company of this ilk and cries because they are losing money or have lost money. To me the article mentioned in the thread starter, and thanks for posting it, is more about the Investment than the business of manufacturing something that is new and exciting in the engineering world.

Kind Regards

AviationNut Big grin
Regrets: I only flew Concorde Trans Atlantic twice
 
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Pellegrine
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Fri Oct 19, 2007 2:33 am

Quoting FAEDC3 (Reply 37):
- The fall started on Oct.1 st. and has been impulsed by the delay announcement, Fact

I'm not really a proponent of either side, but why do you think the stock bounced back post-10/15? 787 exposure for BA is much less than the A380 for EADS.

Quoting FAEDC3 (Reply 37):
- It has been mentioned that it looks fishy to say the least that Boeing´s executives decided to announce the delay right after Q3 was finished. Fact.

Granted. Fishy but not illegal. Similar to that whole tax avoidance versus tax evasion thing.
oh boy, here we go!!!
 
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Stitch
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Fri Oct 19, 2007 3:40 am

Quoting FAEDC3 (Reply 37):
- The stock is not levelling off, is has fallen, that is a fact.

It's trading within a very narrow range. It went up today, even though the market as a whole fell. The MSNBC author expected the stock to drop significantly - 30-40% or even more. Yet it hasn't dropped even 10% since the announcement, and rises as often as it falls. Therefore, to say the 787 delay has had a significant impact on Boeing's stock would be untrue.

Quoting FAEDC3 (Reply 37):
- The fall started on Oct.1 st. and has been impulsed by the delay announcement. Fact

It dropped before the announcement of the delay, as well. It sometimes fell after Boeing said the plane was on time. Again, no stock usually always goes up - unless it's Google.  Smile

Quoting FAEDC3 (Reply 37):
It has been mentioned that it looks fishy to say the least that Boeing´s executives decided to announce the delay right after Q3 was finished. Fact.

Why? Did any Boeing exec sell a bunch of shares after the Q3 announcement, but before the 787 delay announcement?

Boeing could have announced the delay before the Q3 numbers and it would have fallen, then they would have announced the Q3 numbers (which were good), and it would have risen. Some would say that was fishy and would accuse Boeing of "front-loading" the bad news so they could get a positive stock bounce from the Q3 numbers, afterward.

Quoting FAEDC3 (Reply 37):
- Announcing the delay, and thus, delaying the fall of the stock past the closing of Q3 means $$, Fact

See above. The stock was going to fall after the 787 delay announcement and rise after the Q3 earnings announcement, regardless of whichever one preceded the other and regardless of how much time intervened between each announcement. Unless Boeing or some other large investor shed a number of shares between those two announcements, they would not have gained anything. And if they did, that action is going to automatically trigger an SEC investigation into insider trading (whether or not it actually happened), because such a trade would not look like a coincidence.

Quoting FAEDC3 (Reply 37):
Telling on the Sub prime investments, and also to the position of the FED. The Boeing case (mention) is only a third of the context, and the purpose of the article (if you read it complete) is to question the bending of the truth.

In that he believed Boeing couldn't do it and those who followed his advice likely sold the stock short - and lost their shirts when the stock doubled in price, instead of collapsing as his advice would have required. So likely he has some "fence-mending" to do with those investors...
 
CaptainJon
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Fri Oct 19, 2007 3:43 am

I am a BA investor, and as the big guys keep selling, I keep buying. I love aviation, I love Boeing, and I love BA stock (and AAPL I might as well add too). I really don't know why everyone is selling based on delays, but even if it was good news they would still sell. Power investors tend to buy on the rumour and sell on the news (regardless if it is good or bad). At least that is how I see it.
 
FAEDC3
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Fri Oct 19, 2007 3:51 am

Quoting Pellegrine (Reply 39):
I'm not really a proponent of either side, but why do you think the stock bounced back post-10/15?

Stock has not bounced back really... it hitted $94.45 (low) and closed at $94.83 on 10/15, now it has gotten to 96.94, more like a hiccup to me  Smile

Quoting Pellegrine (Reply 39):
787 exposure for BA is much less than the A380 for EADS.

We are not discussing a comparison between the impact on the stock price caused by the first announcement of delay on the A380 to EADS´s price, compared to the impact made by the announcement on the B787 to BA´s price.
Again, the thread is about an article, and the article is about finance, specifically about the obligation to disclose any information that is important and that will affect the balance sheet as soon as the administration knows about it. It is mandatory, that is NASD rule, not mine. Seems that BA administration kept important privileged information for themselves, that action has a cost to investors that hold shares.
 
Charles79
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:16 am

Quoting Keesje (Reply 6):
Everybody that dared to say a lot of new technology involved on the 787 meant risking delays and doubted the aircraft would fly / be delivered on time was personally attacked, deleted and ridiculed here on a.net.

Now that reality is kicking in, they are attacked for arrogance, lack of knowledge, "I told you so" by the same folks when they refer to documented statements on the subject.

Embarrassing IMO.

Probably the most intelligent post in this thread. I hold no personal preferences for either manufacturer, but from an objective point of view it always seems as if the Boeing supporters love to criticize Airbus but can't tolerate criticism of their beloved company (more so than the Airbus supporters). Time to grow up, children!

Back to the topic, I've said this before and I'll say it again: as a program manager myself, I find a 6-month delay in a program worrisome but not earth shattering. When a program announces a delay it means that they already used whatever cushion they had built into the schedule, thus it creates more pressure on the rest of the program to run smoothly. Thankfully, the development part is done for the most part, with testing being the next being challenge for Boeing. Will the program be delayed further? That's always a possibility. Will Boeing still deliver a world-class product? Most likely. Will this 6-month delay affect Boeing too much? If it stays under 12-months, probably not. Boeing is a very healthy company and it can probably afford the penalties that would come with a delay of up to 12 months. True, the stock will likely suffer, but I think most investors would agree that in the long run holding Boeing stock is a wise decision.

The headline of the story does make for a great attention grabber, though (after all, it caught the attention of all of us!).

Cheers!

Charles
 
justloveplanes
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:17 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 34):
Quoting AirNZ (Reply 32):
Can someone explain to me why you feel the need to bring A380 and A350 into the discussion on an article exclusively about Boeing??? Is there some strange, vain and insatiable need to 'justify'?

Hey, Justloveplanes was the one who stated that Boeing now being late on the 787 means it no longer has any advantages to offer against the A350 in terms of delivery. I was just pointing out that the 787 did indeed have a number of advantages to offer against the A350 in terms of delivery.

What I meant (and tried to say) was that Boeing had a huge PR/Sales stick to swing in sales meeting regarding credibility versus Airbus when there was no delay or perhaps just a month or two. That monster stick is more like a branch now. 6 months versus 2 years sounds great in relative terms, but its still a significant delay. This is a consequence of the delay and hence the A380 comparison is relevant to this discussion.

That doesn't mean Boeing doesn't have logistical advantages in delivery it still does. But sales is more than numbers, it involves intangibles and peoples perception of the future, which is why a guy like Leahy (who drives me nuts personally with his endless "conclusions of fact") can really make a difference.

I guess if Boeing gets its act together and ramps up production successfully without another delay, that branch will grow back into a stick again, but for the next year until deliveries begin to flow, the sales arguments on the delivery credibilty side will be closer to level, all things being equal, for deliveries post 2013. Until that happens, Boeing can talk, show and crow until the cows come home and there will still be doubt until the plane flies and production starts.

I am a VERY big Boeing fan BTW and I am frustrated this happened and I believe it when B says there won't be more than the six months, but I believed them in August too. Now we just have to see.
 
Mike89406
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:39 am

Let me just say if anyone works in the aircraft industry like i do delays happen and even more often than people would think. It happens quite a bit in the military aircraft production as well if some people knew all the delays in aviation you would realize that the Dreamliner's issues are miniscule compared to some issues with other aircraft productions I've heard of.

Having said that there is more that goes on behind the scenes than a layman realizes. The Journalists are having a field day with this, why? because it's the 787 and because it's so high profile all eyes are on it. Some people think that the program is screwed by the little reports since rollout. I can assure you that some will be eating crow later when he bugs are worked out. Its easy to criticize something you don't know much about in this case the writer/journalist is going off his opinion from a investors viewpoint.

BTW It doesn't matter if it's Boeing or Airbus thats not the argument here it could have happened to anybody.

Regards Mike
 
AY104
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:40 am

I am certain that Boeing is doing everything possible to deliver the aircraft as close as they can to scheduled delivery. The delay benefits nobody, particularly Boeing. I am sure it is going to be a very successful aircraft for them, things happen, and they are late. It is not the end of the world. Airlines are not going to come to a grinding hault because of the delay. They will make do until the aircraft are delivered. They may piss off a few passengers during that time, but likely if the new aircraft are not delayed, something else will go wrong anyway.
If this delay is the worst that happens to the airline industry, we are all fortunate.
Cheers,
AY104
The only thing a customer should expect for his/her loyalty is good service
 
PhilSquares
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Fri Oct 19, 2007 5:59 am

The 27 Sept issue of "The Economist" had an interesting piece on the 787 and Boeing. Very different perspective than some of the "opinions" posted here.

Fair use exerpt:

Boeing can also fairly claim that neither the plane's design nor its method of construction is to blame for the delays to its first flight. The real causes are a global shortage of aluminium fasteners, which the company claims is well on the way to being fixed, and some lateness on the part of Honeywell, another RSP, in finishing the software for the flight-control system.

For the entire article please use this link http://www.economist.com/business/di...956&CFID=23518465&CFTOKEN=46484445
Fly fast, live slow
 
User avatar
Stitch
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Fri Oct 19, 2007 2:58 pm

Quoting Charles79 (Reply 43):
Probably the most intelligent post in this thread. I hold no personal preferences for either manufacturer, but from an objective point of view it always seems as if the Boeing supporters love to criticize Airbus but can't tolerate criticism of their beloved company (more so than the Airbus supporters). Time to grow up, children!

It cuts both ways, believe me. The Airbus folks are just a bit more...oblique...about it.  Smile

Quoting Justloveplanes (Reply 44):
What I meant (and tried to say) was that Boeing had a huge PR/Sales stick to swing in sales meeting regarding credibility versus Airbus when there was no delay or perhaps just a month or two. That monster stick is more like a branch now. 6 months versus 2 years sounds great in relative terms, but its still a significant delay. This is a consequence of the delay and hence the A380 comparison is relevant to this discussion.

I never bought the line that airlines buy Boeing because they "underpromise and overdeliver". They buy Boeing because it better meets the terms of their RFP. Same with Airbus.

So I just don't see the 787 delay as impacting Boeing's "street cred" with the industry and that airlines will now de-facto order Airbus planes, instead.
 
astuteman
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RE: "How Boeing Blew The Dreamliner"

Fri Oct 19, 2007 3:17 pm

Quoting Justloveplanes (Reply 17):
Well, they haven't blown the Dreamliner

Indeed not! This plane is going to sell in the thousands, and be a huge asset for the customer airlines, not to mention source of cash for Boeing and thier partners.

Quoting Justloveplanes (Reply 17):
but the shine is off the silver

IMO it'll soon buff up again. If I'm allowed a comparison, the A380, positioned in a "more restricted" part of the market, with an 18 month+ delay, and more questionable investment credentials, seems to be shining quite nicely for the customer airlines now that it is entering service. As soon as the 787-8 enters service, the current delay will be as good as forgotten (IMO)

Quoting Stitch (Reply 48):
So I just don't see the 787 delay as impacting Boeing's "street cred" with the industry and that airlines will now de-facto order Airbus planes, instead.

I don't either. See above.
Any dent in Airbus's street cred doesn't seem to be killing them just now. When you see the bounce-back that Airbus has managed this year, from IMO a far more significant crisis, I just can't see a long-term issue for Boeing. The only issue is about pride IMO, and then mostly on A-net.

Regards