FlyPNS1
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FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 1:08 pm

The FAA on Friday released it's target operation numbers for peak times at JFK. The aim for no more than 80 operations/hr from 6am to 10am and no more than 81 operations/hr from 3pm to 8pm.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1192...3492565553.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

It's not really the ideal solution, but since the FAA is a decade behind schedule with ATC modernization and the airlines lack common sense in scheduling, this is what it has come to.
 
caspritz78
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 1:33 pm

Of course such a meassure can only be a short term solution. ATC modernization has to be the long term solution.
 
747fan
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 1:35 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Thread starter):
It's not really the ideal solution

No, its not for the airlines, namely DL, B6, and AA who have recently been devoted to expansion at JFK. But it is for the passengers, who won't have to sit out on the tarmac in the takeoff que for well over 1 hour. They'll still have to wait, but not as long as they would without the 20% reduction. I know DL won't be very happy if this comes true, as they're going to devote JFK to another expansion of (I believe) about 10-15 flights, w/ most of them being transatlantic. So far they've announced 7 (maybe 8, I can't remember) Europe, Middle East, and Africa flights, in addition to the new Latin America routes they announces over the summer (I don't know if those have begun yet or not). Also, AA announces 3 new routes (with 4 flights, as JFK-STN will be 2X daily) that will begin out of JFK next summer. So not an ideal situation for DL, AA, and B6, but it will possibly reduce some of the frustration that pax likely experience when their flight is #30-something for takeoff.
 
28thguy
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 1:42 pm

I wonder if slot lottery will prioritize international service. It's not as if they are going to take away Royal Air Morocco's single slot, for example. In any case, it seems to me that JetBlue and Delta have the most to lose (and particularly JetBlue, as they don't really have any other hubs to which they can re-allocate the aircraft).
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 1:53 pm

Quoting 28thguy (Reply 3):
In any case, it seems to me that JetBlue and Delta have the most to lose (and particularly JetBlue, as they don't really have any other hubs to which they can re-allocate the aircraft).

I agree, although AA is going to be screwed too. They have plans to expand at JFK, but it's going to be real hard for them to achieve that growth (and compete with DL/B6) if growth is impeded by slot constraints.

I think you're right that many of the foreign carriers with only 1 flight a day will largely be left alone. The big targets are DL, B6, AA and to a much lesser extent a few of the large euro carriers (BA, AF).
 
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teme82
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 1:54 pm

Hmm... now perhaps AY will get later slot to make night flight to HEL, arriving at 10 AM local time, and then have better connection times to flights to BOM and DEL  Smile
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roseflyer
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 2:18 pm

Quoting 747fan (Reply 2):
I know DL won't be very happy if this comes true, as they're going to devote JFK to another expansion of (I believe) about 10-15 flights, w/ most of them being transatlantic. So far they've announced 7 (maybe 8, I can't remember) Europe, Middle East, and Africa flights, in addition to the new Latin America routes they announces over the summer (I don't know if those have begun yet or not).

I seriously doubt any international services would be affected. The flights that would suffer are all of those RJ flights around the eastern half of the United States. DL serves many airports with CRJs to JFK to connect to their international bank of departures.
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BestWestern
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 2:26 pm

JFK is not a slot controlled airport, so AY can fly when they want.

DL's have reorganised their flight banks to start earlier, and finish later - they are spreading their long haul schedule.
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victor009
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 2:34 pm

A380 is the answer here,

BA,VS,SQ,TG,EK,EY,QR, all have ordered so i guess rite time for these carriers to get on it as soon as they get their Gentle Green Giant.

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pizzaandplanes
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 2:58 pm

Quoting Caspritz78 (Reply 1):
Of course such a meassure can only be a short term solution. ATC modernization has to be the long term solution.

Exactly, they should use the extra atc fees revenue to modernize the current infrastructure. This would allow more safe aircraft movements in the future.
A real man lands where he wants to
 
ikramerica
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 3:16 pm

Quoting Victor009 (Reply 8):
A380 is the answer here,



Quoting Victor009 (Reply 8):
SQ,TG,EK,EY,QR

How does a carrier with one or even two flights a day switching to the A380 do anything to help? Does flying those one or two flights with an A380 magically make traffic go away? Currently, due to spacing issues, it would make it worse.
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jetbluefan1
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 3:29 pm

Quoting 28thguy (Reply 3):
it seems to me that JetBlue and Delta have the most to lose (and particularly JetBlue, as they don't really have any other hubs to which they can re-allocate the aircraft).

Not in particular. Keep in mind that JetBlue's latest expansion has been point-to-point out of other cities - mostly FLL and MCO. The only two new routes proposed for JFK right now now at POP and SXM, and those flights will leave in the morning or the afternoon - not necessarily the busiest times of day (though the POP flight will leave at 9:30am, which is the only time in the morning where there can be quite a line. But it's nothing like 7pm.)

The airlines that stand to lose the most at DL and AA for the reason that they want to expand their transatlantic ops, but most of those flights leave between 5pm-8pm - times that the FAA will regulate.

Overall, I think that is could be a win-win situation if looked at from this view: fewer flights will mean less competition, meaning that airlines can raise their fares and focus on routes that are only the most profitable. Further, less time waiting on the taxiway means less fuel burned, less overtime pay, etc. And - from a passenger's perspective - it means getting to Fort Lauderdale or Athens closer to the scheduled arrival time.

JetBluefan1
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 3:31 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 4):
I agree, although AA is going to be screwed too. They have plans to expand at JFK, but it's going to be real hard for them to achieve that growth (and compete with DL/B6) if growth is impeded by slot constraints.

And people wonder why UA gave up on JFK. I think that DL will just continue to drop increasing any CRJ service to JFK. They've already given up on the Dash-8 props, and I think increasingly you'll find that all three NYC airports will move more and more to strictly mainline service only.

Quoting 28thguy (Reply 3):
In any case, it seems to me that JetBlue and Delta have the most to lose (and particularly JetBlue, as they don't really have any other hubs to which they can re-allocate the aircraft).

I think DL will be the bigger of the two to lose out. B6 might actually be looking at other options, but remember they only fly A320s and EMB-190s into JFK. DL and AA use CRJs for some routes.
I think you'll find that Los Angeles, Chicago as well as New York City airports will evolve increasingly into mainline only airports based on the economics slot controls usually bring in. But they could take it a step further and outright but a ban on all props and CRJs. I know that will make many people VERY HAPPY!
Funny thing for DL, is that two decades from now they might be confronted with a similar issue at ATL.
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victor009
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 3:32 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 10):
Currently, due to spacing issues, it would make it worse.

A380 has the same spacing restriction as 747, no difference at all.
XWB- The one to fly.
 
sh0rtybr0wn
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 3:37 pm

Good. The number of peak flights is limited anyway right now by about 20%. They book more flights than can take off, so they build or plan the delays into every single day's schedule.
With less flights planned, all the one scheduled will definitely take off as scheduled. If not, cut a few more flights until those go off as planned.

Maybe JFK needs 1 or 2 more runways..
 
flyf15
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 3:40 pm

What they need to do is get rid of all the RJs.... those things are a complete waste of airspace for the amount of passengers they carry. Replace them with a reduced number of mainline aircraft. Your city can't handle mainline aircraft? Well, too bad, guess you don't get JFK service then. JFK is too much of a premium to give everyone flights everywhere at everytime.
 
747fan
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 3:48 pm

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 14):
Maybe JFK needs 1 or 2 more runways..

Really???  Yeah sure
Of course, that's much easier said than done.  Wink
The only way to do that would to somehow put one where Jamaica Bay is, but that's likely not possible due to environmental issues and the fact that they'd have to somehow elevate it over the bay due to that. However, I do believe there is an airport in either Portugal or Spain that does have a runway "bridge" over a body of water.
 
roseflyer
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 3:54 pm

Quoting Victor009 (Reply 8):
A380 is the answer here,

BA,VS,SQ,TG,EK,EY,QR, all have ordered so i guess rite time for these carriers to get on it as soon as they get their Gentle Green Giant.

The A380 won't do much. It will definitely help BA. We don't need hourly service on a single airline between JFK and LHR. That serves no purpose. However, what needs to go away are all of those RJs. CRJs and ERJs take just as much space as 737s, A320s and 757s, yet there are all of these high frequency short hops.
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sh0rtybr0wn
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 3:57 pm

Quoting 747fan (Reply 16):
I do believe there is an airport in either Portugal or Spain that does have a runway "bridge" over a body of water.

Yeah I've seen some beautiful take-offs and lands at that airport on Flight Level 350. If the Japanese can make KIX, and the Chinese can Make CheK Lap Kok, we should be able to enlarge JFK.

Where there's a will , theres a way.
 
r2rho
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 4:34 pm

Quoting Flyf15 (Reply 15):
What they need to do is get rid of all the RJs.... those things are a complete waste of airspace for the amount of passengers they carry. Replace them with a reduced number of mainline aircraft. Your city can't handle mainline aircraft? Well, too bad, guess you don't get JFK service then. JFK is too much of a premium to give everyone flights everywhere at everytime.

 checkmark 

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 17):

However, what needs to go away are all of those RJs. CRJs and ERJs take just as much space as 737s, A320s and 757s, yet there are all of these high frequency short hops.

 checkmark 

I brought this up in an older thread some time ago:

There's an article about the congestion problems in NYC in Aviation Week, July 30th 2007. Basically says that there will be an upcoming airspace redesign that will allow more arrival and departure routes, that "demand management" (slot allocation, peak-hour pricing) will have to be implemented, that ADS-B would help a lot but many aircraft aren't equipped with it and it won't be mandatory in another ten years, and that all these solutions will help but the only way to truly solve the problem is to increase runway capacity - not an easy thing in NYC.

But the most interesting thing in this article is a table indicating the change in daily departures by aircraft seat capacity from 2002 to 2007. Check this out:

EWR:
- <100 seats: +33.7%
- 100-200: 2.2%
- >200: 0.0%

JFK:
- <100 seats: +128.0%
- 100-200: +119.6%
- >200: -11.7%

LGA:
- <100 seats: 35.0%
- 100-200: -6.5%
- >200: -100%

The numbers speak for themselves. The NY airspace is being clogged by a swarm of small regional jets transporting a handful of commuters on small distances that are generally below 2 hours.

Eventually, they'll have to go or the situation will be unsustainable. Airlines will have to be forced by demand management restrictions (because the current, no limits, free for all slot allocation and scheduling doesn't work at oversaturated hubs) to reduce frequencies and use bigger aircraft.
 
WJ
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 4:34 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 7):
JFK is not a slot controlled airport, so AY can fly when they want.

This is a big point in cause of recent struggles. Yes, technology is behind, but JFK was restricted during peak PM times, a restriction that was cancelled on 1/1/07.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 6):
I seriously doubt any international services would be affected. The flights that would suffer are all of those RJ flights around the eastern half of the United States. DL serves many airports with CRJs to JFK to connect to their international bank of departures.

Wouldn't call it "suffer" per-se. If the airlines are limited to a certain number of flights in a period of time, they will run the most profitable ones. It may just be a prime time high yield domestic business route, pushing the Int'l flight to a different time slot later at night.
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Ken777
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 4:48 pm

Quoting Pizzaandplanes (Reply 9):
Exactly, they should use the extra atc fees revenue to modernize the current infrastructure. This would allow more safe aircraft movements in the future.

Pax & airlines had already paid in the money to upgrade the ATC system, but the money is being spent in Iraq and we're going into the red more each day. Right now there is no money to upgrade the system or even increase health care for children.

As for JFK's reduction in flights the airlines are going to need to get to work figuring out how they will handle it. Moving planes around to get larger planes into JFK is obviously one way, as is using the old "milk run" approach for smaller cities.

I'm one of the lucky ones - I can go through ORD or DFW to cross the Atlantic.
 
Mir
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 4:59 pm

Quoting Caspritz78 (Reply 1):
Of course such a meassure can only be a short term solution. ATC modernization has to be the long term solution.

No, more runways and better airspace designs are the real long term solutions. ATC modernization is a nice phrase that doesn't really do all that much.

-Mir
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SLCUT2777
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 5:00 pm

Quoting Flyf15 (Reply 15):
What they need to do is get rid of all the RJs.... those things are a complete waste of airspace for the amount of passengers they carry. Replace them with a reduced number of mainline aircraft. Your city can't handle mainline aircraft? Well, too bad, guess you don't get JFK service then. JFK is too much of a premium to give everyone flights everywhere at everytime.

 checkmark  That is EXACTLY what I meant in my post (#12) above! 100 seats should be the absolute minimum sized passenger aircraft allowed into NYC-JFK or EWR & LGA as well. Somebody good with Adobe Photoshop get a good rendition of a CRJ and a turbo-prop and draw a red circle with a slash going through it!!!!!
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Flighty
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 5:02 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 21):
As for JFK's reduction in flights the airlines are going to need to get to work figuring out how they will handle it. Moving planes around to get larger planes into JFK is obviously one way, as is using the old "milk run" approach for smaller cities.

The solution is real easy. It's not even a new idea; the free-for-all thing was a "new idea" that worked extremely badly.

The right way is to make JFK a "Lexus Lane." Charge each jet for the right to take off. If there are too many takers, increase the price.

I guarantee international players will easily pay the new fee. Or, potentially, international flights could be exempted. Either way, they will all stay.

This is simply a way to kick a few stupid RJs out of JFK to avoid not only causing international delays, but cascading domestic delays across the USA. This problem is way to big to act righteous about a few RJs.

Quoting Pizzaandplanes (Reply 9):

Exactly, they should use the extra atc fees revenue to modernize the current infrastructure. This would allow more safe aircraft movements in the future.

Modernize how? JFK is pretty big. I think JFK has plenty of capacity. Not infinite, but plenty. To start saying we should spend billions (or tens of billions) for a few RJ flights to Des Moines or whatever, get real. The level of importance of these marginal RJ flights is very low. The "right" to zero-cost access to JFK is extremely controversial and in my view, dubious. If airlines want more flights to JFK, let them handle the costs directly and set up a bank account for it. Otherwise, deal with what you've got.
 
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teme82
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 5:13 pm

Quoting BestWestern (Reply 7):
JFK is not a slot controlled airport, so AY can fly when they want.

Ok. Thanks  Smile

Perhaps it's time to start it  Wink
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Vega9000
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 5:14 pm

Quoting 747fan (Reply 16):
However, I do believe there is an airport in either Portugal or Spain that does have a runway "bridge" over a body of water

This is it:


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Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Miguel Nobrega - Madeira Spotters



Madeira Island, Portugal. Considered one of the finest engeneering works in europe.
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SLCUT2777
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 5:45 pm

Quoting 747fan (Reply 16):
The only way to do that would to somehow put one where Jamaica Bay is, but that's likely not possible due to environmental issues and the fact that they'd have to somehow elevate it over the bay due to that. However, I do believe there is an airport in either Portugal or Spain that does have a runway "bridge" over a body of water.



Quoting Vega9000 (Reply 26):
Madeira Island, Portugal. Considered one of the finest engeneering works in europe.

I would say that LGA is a stronger candidate for this sort of runway work. LGA has even more pressure on it since so many wish to use it for its convenient access to midtown Manhattan.
LGA:

View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Darrin Glenday
View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Art Brett - Photovation Images


JFK:

View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Anthony Russo
View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © TriplET

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Mir
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 5:59 pm

Quoting 747fan (Reply 16):
The only way to do that would to somehow put one where Jamaica Bay is, but that's likely not possible due to environmental issues and the fact that they'd have to somehow elevate it over the bay due to that.

A new 13/31 runway built on fill just into the bay and a new 4/22 built east of the current 4R/22L would solve a lot of the problems. they wouldn't even have to be that far apart, since you wouldn't be landing on them simultaneously. Then you'd have two landing runways and one departure runway in all wind conditions. But because of the NIMBYs and environmentalists, it'd never happen.

-Mir
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D328
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 7:01 pm

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 23):
That is EXACTLY what I meant in my post (#12) above! 100 seats should be the absolute minimum sized passenger aircraft allowed into NYC-JFK or EWR & LGA as well. Somebody good with Adobe Photoshop get a good rendition of a CRJ and a turbo-prop and draw a red circle with a slash going through it!!!!!

What about US Airways new Embraer 190's, 99 seats? What if they want to send that? That is a mainline aircraft.
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 7:05 pm

Quoting D328 (Reply 29):
What about US Airways new Embraer 190's, 99 seats? What if they want to send that? That is a mainline aircraft.

They can VERY easily find a way to add one more seat to these, and if their union pilots are so brainless as to throw a  hissyfit , we'll just let them go on being HP+US!  dopey  That said, the NW DC-9s are also a mainline aircraft and they barely seat 100.
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Flighty
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 7:22 pm

Quoting SLCUT2777 (Reply 30):
They can VERY easily find a way to add one more seat to these, and if their union pilots are so brainless as to throw a hissyfit , we'll just let them go on being HP+US! dopey That said, the NW DC-9s are also a mainline aircraft and they barely seat 100.

Why require a certain number of seats? If an airline wants to pay to send an RJ 50 seater instead of a 120 seater, let them. But the fee will be the same.

When you get into legislating certain equipment types, you distort the market. Airlines would send empty 737s in place of these profitable RJs, if need be.
 
brilondon
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 7:56 pm

Quoting Victor009 (Reply 8):
A380 is the answer here,

I don't see this as the answer. I see it as causing more congestion as when the A380 arrives you have to allow for the aircraft to land and the wake turbulence to subside in order to allow for other planes to land. Could the arrivals hall and immigration handle two of these size aircraft, let alone three or four? With the majority of the passengers requiring I-94 entry cards and many may need visas as well? Anybody not from the U.S. or Canada requires this and the process can take up to 20-30 minutes per entry card, let alone the time it takes to get a visa. The way the present Homeland security is operating these days, it does not look like it will change in the near future

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 17):
However, what needs to go away are all of those RJs. CRJs and ERJs take just as much space as 737s, A320s and 757s, yet there are all of these high frequency short hops.

Those are the aircraft that are feeding the A380 with the passengers and with out them there would not be enough O/D traffic for a slew of A380s to be utilized.  bigthumbsup   biggrin 
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atmx2000
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 8:01 pm

Quoting FlyPNS1 (Reply 4):
I agree, although AA is going to be screwed too. They have plans to expand at JFK, but it's going to be real hard for them to achieve that growth (and compete with DL/B6) if growth is impeded by slot constraints.

AA should just buy B6. Expansion of capacity in the NYC market isn't realisitic, it will just cause a blood bath. AA has a rather weak domestic route structure out of JFK compared to DL, and CO at EWR. With Bermuda II ending, AA will lose one of the crutches holding up their JFK operations, no American competition on NYC-LHR. They will continue to have their Carribean and Latin American markets protected though as those bilaterals have yet to be liberalized.
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brilondon
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 8:29 pm

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 18):
Yeah I've seen some beautiful take-offs and lands at that airport on Flight Level 350. If the Japanese can make KIX, and the Chinese can Make CheK Lap Kok, we should be able to enlarge JFK.

Where there's a will , theres a way.

This may have not been brought in this thread but they cannot expand into the bay as it is a Bird sanctuary and cannot be built into without a lot of uproar. I agree that they should just expand into the bay as well but there are those who might think otherwise.
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PGNCS
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 8:37 pm

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 6):
I seriously doubt any international services would be affected. The flights that would suffer are all of those RJ flights around the eastern half of the United States. DL serves many airports with CRJs to JFK to connect to their international bank of departures.

I think you are on the money. When given the choice to cut international or RJ flights, the RJs will lose every (or nearly every) time.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 10):
How does a carrier with one or even two flights a day switching to the A380 do anything to help? Does flying those one or two flights with an A380 magically make traffic go away? Currently, due to spacing issues, it would make it worse.

If you replace two aircraft with one (whether it be an A-380 or a B-747) then, yes the traffic is reduced; and no, spacing requirements would not make things worse. There is no A-380 spacing issue more adverse two other arrivals.
 
Mcmax
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 9:01 pm

What I predict will happen is the majors (i.e., AA, UA and DL) will be forced to "voluntarily" reduce their schedules under threat. Then, without a couple months, JetBlue (or another start-up carrier) will want to add more flights to JFK, and DOT will grant them additional flights. Remember Chicago O'Hare?
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lrdc9
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 9:18 pm

Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 33):
AA should just buy B6.

How in the heck would that work. Two totally diff products, a/c, etc etc etc....
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SLCUT2777
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 9:22 pm

Quoting Flighty (Reply 31):
Why require a certain number of seats? If an airline wants to pay to send an RJ 50 seater instead of a 120 seater, let them. But the fee will be the same.

When you get into legislating certain equipment types, you distort the market. Airlines would send empty 737s in place of these profitable RJs, if need be.

Do you really want to turn the Port authority of New York into the Greater Toronto Airports Authority (GTAA), which gets all sorts of nasty posts on these threads. Do you really want NYC airports to be as pricey as airports such as YYZ, MIA, DFW or SEA?
If airlines want to lose money up their "ying yang" by sending empty A320/B737 aircraft into JFK, EWR, LGA from all the small places in that part of the U.S. just to protect slots they don't deserve, then let them. Sooner or late it will bite them in the a$$! No pun intended!  biggrin 
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sh0rtybr0wn
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 9:25 pm

Quoting McMax (Reply 36):
What I predict will happen is the majors (i.e., AA, UA and DL) will be forced to "voluntarily" reduce their schedules under threat. Then, without a couple months, JetBlue (or another start-up carrier) will want to add more flights to JFK, and DOT will grant them additional flights. Remember Chicago O'Hare?

This isnt about 1 airline gaining preference over another, its about the physical limit of planes that can actually take-off and land during peak times.

If peak times are overbooked 20%, then cutting them 20% should help.

Its not really about modernizing ATC. 25 planes in a row all day waiting to take off does not happen because the ATC system is old.
 
Mcmax
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 9:40 pm

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 39):
This isnt about 1 airline gaining preference over another, its about the physical limit of planes that can actually take-off and land during peak times.

If peak times are overbooked 20%, then cutting them 20% should help.

Similar problem was happening at O'Hare in 2004 when UA and AA were ordered to cut their flights. A few months later, when congestion problems were solved, JetBlue was granted slots into O'Hare for new service. Given what happened in the past at O'Hare, any mandatory reduction of flights at JFK is bound to be broken by the government itself in a short period of time when priorities change.

Timeline of events:

1) Government correctly recognizes a problem exists.
2) Government tries to get airlines to voluntarily solve the problem
3) Existing airlines refuse to voluntarily solve the problem because of a perceived competitive disadvantage.
4) Government mandates reduction in flights for existing airlines.
5) Existing airlines grumble and moan, but comply.
6) New airline wants to fly into the subject airport.
7) Government believes new airline's entry into the subject airport is a good thing.
8) Government permits new airline to add flights, thereby negating part of the previously implemented solution.
9) Existing airlines grumble and moan, but are effectively left with no recourse.

Now of course, if the government is willing to stick to the mandatory 20% reduction in flights, and not make any exceptions to that policy, then I'm all for it. I just think the chances of that happening are slim.

--Max <---- who has complete lack of faith the government will act consistently with its own policies
De minimis non curat lex tamen ego curao
 
ikramerica
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 9:47 pm

Quoting Victor009 (Reply 13):
A380 has the same spacing restriction as 747, no difference at all.

Did I miss the change? I know Airbus was fighting for that to be true, but I was still under the impression that the A380 requires greater separation depending on other aircraft involved.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
flyf15
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 9:49 pm

It shouldnt be an idea of limiting the number of flights. It should be a limit on the smallest size aircraft allowed. Say your airport can handle 10 flights in an hour and 1500 passengers want to fly through. If you limit the smallest sized aircraft to 150 seats, you will be fine. If passengers go up to 2000, airlines will want to increase the number of 150 seaters, which congests the airport. You instead change the limit to 200 seats, you are still fine. It'll work perfectly. It can be altered during the time of day too. You want to bring in a 50 seater, you have to bring it in when there are only 500 passengers wanting to come through... ie: between major banks.

The airlines should all be granted the ability to fly into the airport whenever they want, they just have to bring the right sized aircraft. The airport can only handle so many flights, if your city can't provide the required number of passengers, you simply don't get a flight. Its as easy as that. When supply is scarce, as it is, you have to prioritize.
 
Mcmax
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 9:57 pm

Quoting Flyf15 (Reply 42):
When supply is scarce, as it is, you have to prioritize.

Actually, I would argue that under a market economy, when supply is scarce, prices go up.

Quoting Flyf15 (Reply 42):
The airlines should all be granted the ability to fly into the airport whenever they want, they just have to bring the right sized aircraft.

Unfortunately, that would mean many small- to medium-sized cities along the East Coast would lose nonstop service into JFK as the costs to the airlines could never be recovered in the fares charged.
De minimis non curat lex tamen ego curao
 
Charles79
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 10:05 pm

One aspect no one has mentioned yet is that a lot of the RJs are used on routes that are so short that train service could replace the aircraft. I know that in some European airports flights between city pairs (i.e., CDG-Brussels) have been augmented or even replaced by efficient train service. If the US would invest in a modern, efficient, and affordable train system a lot of these regional flights wouldn't be required. I this at LAX every day. Granted, LAX is not suffering from congestion at all, but flights from Oxnard, Santa Barbara, Ontario, Carlsbad, etc into LAX using a 30-pax E-120 seems like a waste of resources. When I was living in New Haven, CT, I would use JFK 90% of the time cause it was always cheaper than BDL. To catch my flights I always rode the Metro-North, then the A train to JFK. A 70 mile trip that could have been done by a regional prop or jet but the train service was efficient and affordable enough to make an alternative.
 
flyf15
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 11:24 pm

Quoting McMax (Reply 43):
Actually, I would argue that under a market economy, when supply is scarce, prices go up.

This is a little different in the way that the FAA is allowing a completely artificial situation where it is, in effect, "selling" more "product" than it has. The sale being allowing airlines to operate any time they choose with any aircraft, and the product being airport capacity. If the operations where limited to capacity, and airlines had to competitively bid on slots, then you would have an actual supply and demand situation going on and it would probably fix itself. Until then, it is a free-for-all.

Quoting McMax (Reply 43):
Unfortunately, that would mean many small- to medium-sized cities along the East Coast would lose nonstop service into JFK as the costs to the airlines could never be recovered in the fares charged.

Very true. Its unfortunate, but its the reality. If JFK can only handle 10 flights per hour (just an easy number for example), and there are 15 cities you want to serve, the bottom 5 smallest / least profitable markets are going to get cut off. Until the airport can handle 15 flights per hour, you just aren't going to be able to do it. Thats the premium that JFK is.
 
Mir
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 11:53 pm

Quoting Brilondon (Reply 32):
Those are the aircraft that are feeding the A380 with the passengers and with out them there would not be enough O/D traffic for a slew of A380s to be utilized.

NYC has more than enough O/D to fill up several A380s to places like LHR, CDG, FRA, etc. We don't need no stinkin' RJs to help with that.

-Mir
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Boeing7E7
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sat Oct 20, 2007 11:56 pm

Quoting Victor009 (Reply 13):
A380 has the same spacing restriction as 747, no difference at all.

How is less than 1% of JFK's flights each day going to matter? Do tell.
 
Mcmax
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sun Oct 21, 2007 12:06 am

Quoting Flyf15 (Reply 45):
Very true. Its unfortunate, but its the reality. If JFK can only handle 10 flights per hour (just an easy number for example), and there are 15 cities you want to serve, the bottom 5 smallest / least profitable markets are going to get cut off. Until the airport can handle 15 flights per hour, you just aren't going to be able to do it. Thats the premium that JFK is.

And, with LGA slot-controlled (i.e., limited access) and Newark congested as well, there would be a very likely possibility many of these small/medium-sized East Coast cities would lose almost all access to NYC. I don't see that as a realistic nor acceptable possibility. It would seem the best solution would be for the military to work out some limited civilian access to restricted airspace.
De minimis non curat lex tamen ego curao
 
flyf15
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RE: FAA May Reduce Peak JFK Flights By 20%

Sun Oct 21, 2007 12:12 am

Quoting McMax (Reply 48):
And, with LGA slot-controlled (i.e., limited access) and Newark congested as well, there would be a very likely possibility many of these small/medium-sized East Coast cities would lose almost all access to NYC. I don't see that as a realistic nor acceptable possibility. It would seem the best solution would be for the military to work out some limited civilian access to restricted airspace.

Its not an airspace issue.... theres more than enough airspace out there for everyone. Its simply a matter of concrete. The New York area has a serious problem in this department... they have 3 horribly unefficient major airports bursting at the seams (JFK, EWR, LGA) and 3 tiny relievers that can't really handle much of anything (SWF, HPN, ISP). When you just cannot serve any more passengers, someone is going to get screwed in the process... with no service or whatever. Until a solution is brought forward, it really just gets down to the point that the RJs are clogging NYC. It needs larger planes... planes that can carry more people per unit of airspace.

They need to drop a serious amount of money and fix this problem once and for all..... personally, I feel they should build a mega-airport out in the country (think DEN) with high speed rail connections from throughout the city. But, that is probably beyond the scope of this post.

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