SpencerII
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Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Mon Oct 22, 2007 5:41 am

OK--It appears as though GO! is considering starting some mainland to Hawaii low fare service from mainland Coastal markets utliizing the services of Ryan Intenational kind of as a contract carrier. As this progresses I'm sure the likes of AQ and HA may have some cncerns about it. (i think AirTran did something like this when they started services from ATL to Los Angeles & Las Vegas)
 
SANFan
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Mon Oct 22, 2007 6:23 am

Mainland-Hawaii LCC experiments in the past have been many and have all ended badly for the cx involved; the markets are usually considered low yield at reasonable fare levels and undoable at cut-rate levels. Sounds like "Skybus with (plastic) leis" to me, and that sounds like failure...

Not completely surprising (given GO!'s history in the Islands) but still a waste of effort and resources, IMHO.

bb
 
AirframeAS
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Mon Oct 22, 2007 6:42 am

With what? A CRJ900?! Is JO that insane?!
A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
 
777ER
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Mon Oct 22, 2007 6:53 am

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 2):

Ryan International have B737-200, -300, -400, -800, B757ERs and MD80s

[Edited 2007-10-22 00:00:43]
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AirframeAS
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Mon Oct 22, 2007 7:08 am

Quoting 777ER (Reply 3):
Ryan International have B737-200, -300, -400, and MD80s

I doubt those can make the trip to mainland to HNL to mainland. But has it ever been done on a fully loaded aircraft? I have never heard of it being done.

Quoting 777ER (Reply 3):
...-800, B757ERs...

 checkmark  Those can, for sure.
A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
 
skyguyB727
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Mon Oct 22, 2007 7:48 am

I remember a carrier in the mid-1980s called The Hawaii Express (LP). They flew 747s from LAX (and SFO I think) to HNL. They lasted only a very short time.
 
SpencerII
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Mon Oct 22, 2007 11:58 am

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 2):
With what? A CRJ900?! Is JO that insane?!

While JO might be a little on the eccentric side, Ryan International definietely has the equipment to do this.
check out..



then again, will he be able to fill them?
 
UnitedTristar
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Ma

Mon Oct 22, 2007 12:09 pm

Quoting SpencerII (Thread starter):
OK--It appears as though GO! is considering starting some mainland to Hawaii low fare service from mainland Coastal markets utliizing the services of Ryan Intenational kind of as a contract carrier.

It simply wont happen. The UA contract says that any carrier owned by YV cannot open competing routes under their own banner competing with UA. This is the reason, I believe, that UA couldn't merge AQ operations under their own name, because of the above clause. YV already had opened Go!

-m

 airplane 
 
SpencerII
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Mon Oct 22, 2007 12:15 pm

Quoting UnitedTristar (Reply 7):
It simply wont happen. The UA contract says that any carrier owned by YV cannot open competing routes under their own banner competing with UA. This is the reason, I believe, that UA couldn't merge AQ operations under their own name, because of the above clause. YV already had opened Go!

but I don't think UA has any flights between OAK SJC SAN ONT SEA or PDX to points in Hawaii. West Coast cities comprise a lot of different options.

[Edited 2007-10-22 05:36:53]
 
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United_fan
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Mon Oct 22, 2007 2:55 pm

Quoting SpencerII (Reply 8):
but I don't think UA has any flights between OAK SJC SAN ONT SEA or PDX to points in Hawaii. West Coast cities comprise a lot of different options.

I believe UA has Sat only service from SEA and SAN to Hawaii.
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as739x
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Mon Oct 22, 2007 9:04 pm

Quoting SpencerII (Reply 8):

United does seasonal SEA/SAN-HNL

ASSFO
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sq_ek_freak
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Mon Oct 22, 2007 9:43 pm

ONT might be an interesting option, as much of the Inland Empire utilizes this aiport for their travels, given that is much more stress free than LAX, and with regards to Hawaii flights, ATA does them and to my knowledge, are highly successful.
Keep Discovering
 
as739x
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Mon Oct 22, 2007 11:54 pm

Quoting SQ_EK_freak (Reply 11):

ATA in fact serves ONT-Hawaii with success. But they also get feed from a little ole carrier named Southwest. Mesa is getting in over its head if they do this. IMO

ASSFO
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freshlove1
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Tue Oct 23, 2007 2:07 am

Quoting UnitedTristar (Reply 7):
It simply wont happen. The UA contract says that any carrier owned by YV cannot open competing routes under their own banner competing with UA. This is the reason, I believe, that UA couldn't merge AQ operations under their own name, because of the above clause. YV already had opened Go!

This is also one of the reasons YV dropped the Frontier Jet Express flying and stuck with UA. It had something to do with the contract/routes/etc.. Yeah YV could have stuck with F9 and let UA go but money wise it was better to drop F9 and keep UA.
 
UnitedTristar
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Ma

Tue Oct 23, 2007 11:45 am

Quoting SpencerII (Reply 8):
but I don't think UA has any flights between OAK SJC SAN ONT SEA or PDX to points in Hawaii. West Coast cities comprise a lot of different options.

But the thing about it is, I don't think that the contract differentiates the between Nonstop, One Stop or Connection. So no markets can be opened to the mainland unless its a station UA does not service at all. Go! operates interisland where UA does not even publish fares. But once they start going where UA publishes a schedule they are in trouble.

-m



[Edited 2007-10-23 04:53:30]
 
imapilotaz
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Tue Oct 23, 2007 1:26 pm

The contract has nothing to do with "any carrier that YV owns", it only deals with YV. Mesa Air Group is a completely separate company that owns 3 airlines, and go! could very easily be folded into Freedom, and with a little more difficulty into Air Midwest. Also, keep in mind that Mesa would be having Ryan International operating the flights for go!, which would also not be operated by Mesa Airlines, and therefore not a problem. These rules are why Mesa no longer flies PHX-DEN for UA as they did 2+ years ago, as they fly PHX-DEN for HP/US. This is also why most holding companies own 2-3 carriers so they can continue operating for multiple carriers.

In the end, there is not much of a chance of this. It is much more likely that a deal will be struck between AQ and go! that would combine the carriers. With a potentially large (20-30M) judgement from HA coming, and a potentially 2-3x that amount for AQ, MAG wont be wasting any of its limited cash reserves. A $20M judgement to HA and $40M judgement to AQ will likely push MAG into bankruptcy. That would be horriffic to its employees, as the power that be in MAG have made it clear that there is no loyalty to employees and they would force immediate 20-30% pay cuts. This would, however, be the only way to clean up many messy contracts that will likely plague the company forever. The attrition at MAG has greatly picked up in the last 6 months, and something like that would just worsen the situation at Corporate.
 
itsnotfinals
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Tue Oct 23, 2007 1:42 pm

the only question is will YV have any money left after the lawsuit finishes and will they be barred for 1 year in Hawai'i?

Although the HA suit is for 175 Million , YV is already saying through their lawyers that the damage should only be 6 Million or so. If YV was truly innocent then their lawyers wouldn't be talking about a settlement already.


It's also hard to negoitiate wet leases when your CFO is on leave for erasing porn  Smile
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freshlove1
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Wed Oct 24, 2007 1:08 am

Quoting Imapilotaz (Reply 15):
A $20M judgement to HA and $40M judgement to AQ will likely push MAG into bankruptcy.

Really with over 100 mil in the bank how do you come up with this?
 
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mariner
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Wed Oct 24, 2007 2:22 am

Quoting Freshlove1 (Reply 13):
. Yeah YV could have stuck with F9 and let UA go but money wise it was better to drop F9 and keep UA.

For which Frontier is extremely grateful.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
SpencerII
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Wed Oct 24, 2007 2:28 am

Quoting Imapilotaz (Reply 15):
A $20M judgement to HA and $40M judgement to AQ will likely push MAG into bankruptcy. That would be horriffic to its employees, as the power that be

Not to worry, as most companies with the breadth of Mesa would certainly have insurance to cover any judgement that may come up.
 
itsnotfinals
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Wed Oct 24, 2007 2:38 am

Quoting SpencerII (Reply 19):
Not to worry, as most companies with the breadth of Mesa would certainly have insurance to cover any judgement that may come up.

but the increased premiums REALLY hurt  Smile
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floridaflyboy
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Wed Oct 24, 2007 2:51 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 18):
For which Frontier is extremely grateful.

And, for that matter, all of us who fly frontier  Smile
Good goes around!
 
AirframeAS
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Wed Oct 24, 2007 11:59 am

Quoting SpencerII (Reply 6):
Ryan International definietely has the equipment to do this.

With a 738 and a 752, yes. But the other aircraft they have, I don't think so.

If Ryan International were hired by GO!, then they may have to devote their entire 'long haul' fleet on this venture. Its a huge risk, IMO.

Quoting Floridaflyboy (Reply 21):
Quoting Mariner (Reply 18):
For which Frontier is extremely grateful.

And, for that matter, all of us who fly frontier  Smile

And, I for one, am very excited that I will be doing my first flight with them next month!  bouncy 
A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
 
imapilotaz
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RE: Go! Looking At Mixing Up Mainland To Hawaii Market

Wed Oct 24, 2007 4:00 pm

Pretty easy, Mesa's operation is cash flow negative. They have gone from nearly $300M in cash on hand 3+ years ago to now less than $200 according to their last Q. Most airlines are cash positive when they lose money, somehow Mesa is cashflow negative when they made money.

Also, remember, the only reason why they even have that much cash is because they had 2x $100M bond offerings. They owe more on those bonds than they have in cash. That is the reason why Bankruptcy is likely if they are forced to pay out $50M+ in judgments to HA/AQ. The other problem with Mesa is that their aircraft are getting older, which means more maintenance costs. They have NO new contracts that reflect that reality, and it means that every single year that goes by, their costs will rise, and their margins decrease. Really bad combination when tied to a cash flow negative corporation.

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