NYC777
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787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:01 pm

787 update:

+ strengthen program management (bringing in Shanahan) recoginized that they needed different strengths at this point in the program. Next update in early December.

+ Finalizing the master schedule for ff, first delivery and prod ramp up with suppliers

+ Placing additional Boeing employees throughout the supply chain to halp them catch up, this includes tier 1 and sub tier suppliers. Adding financial resources to meet the new schedule.

+ Interest in the 787 continues to be very strong. Despite increased R&D spending the business case continues to be very strong

+ Revenue impact in 2008 of about -$4bn in 2008 due to rescheduling of 787 deliveries from 2008 to 2009. Operating cashflows will be reduced due to rescheduling of deliveries to 2009 and increased 787 inventory costs in 2008.

+ Expect about 3 - 4 787 deliveries in 2008 and about 105 - 106 787 deliveries in 2009

[Edited 2007-10-24 08:34:50]
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Stitch
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:02 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
+ Revenue impact in 2008 of about -$4bn in 2008 due to rescheduling of 787 deliveries from 2008 to 2009. Operating cashflows will be reduced due to rescheduling of deliveries to 2009 and increased 787 inventory costs in 2008.

Just remember folks, like the $10 billion in deferred revenue from the A380 program, this is not a loss.
 
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:05 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Just remember folks, like the $10 billion in deferred revenue from the A380 program, this is not a loss.

Exactly those revenues will be earned in 2009 instead of 2008.
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:17 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 2):
Exactly those revenues will be earned in 2009 instead of 2008.

IF earned in 2009 - the current delivery schedule still appears to be over-ambitious and I seriously doubt that we will see all planned B787 in 2009. IMO we will see a good deal of them shifted into 2010.
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:19 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):
+ Placing additional Boeing employees throughout the supply chain to halp them catch up, this includes tier 1 and sub tier suppliers. Adding financial resources to meet the new schedule.

That one scares me. Commercial airplanes is getting stretched pretty thinly. The 737 and 777 programs have already loaned many of their engineers to the 787 and 748 programs. How much farther are they going to go and are we going to see them pulling more people out of Integrated Defense Systems to the commercial side. Boeing's a huge company, but it will be interesting to see what happens.
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:25 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 3):

According to Boeig's guidance (and this is Boeing's guidance for 2008-2009) they are still planning to have a considerable bump up in revenues in 2009 due to increase BCA deliveries (mainly 787) that are being resequenced from 2008 to 2009. Whether that happens depends on the supply chain and how well they can manage the production ramp up.

But know this: the suppliers continue to produce their workshare (in fact a section of LN 4 was delievered into CHS today) thus as Boeing continues to work on LN 1, all the suppliers are continuing work on all the subsequent airplanes. Now hopefully they could resume deliveries into Everett soon so as to relieve the bottlenecks within the supply chain but assuming that they could get LN 1 completed soon and start moving out subsequent air frames then they could produce the numbers that they're talking about by 2009.

The key to all this is that the suppliers continue working on the subsequent airframes beyond the 6 test frames and the static and fatigue frames.
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:27 pm

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 4):
That one scares me. Commercial airplanes is getting stretched pretty thinly. The 737 and 777 programs have already loaned many of their engineers to the 787 and 748 programs. How much farther are they going to go and are we going to see them pulling more people out of Integrated Defense Systems to the commercial side. Boeing's a huge company, but it will be interesting to see what happens.

I believe Boeing had done some hiring early this year for risk mitigation and so they could send some of those new hires to the supply chain.
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:38 pm

NCY777: it isn´t the supply chain which worries me most - there are some dangers in. It is the flight testing that worries me most. IMO the schedule is far too compressed to allow for any real problems coming along. Big problem is: once you start rolling-out the airline frames during flight testing you will need to rework all of them when changes are needed. Going to be a) costly, b) time-consuming and c) they are draning much needed resources from the final assembly line to re-do frames, much as Airbus had to do. And we all know that in the end Airbus was forced to halt the A380 assembly line as they were no longer able to manage both tasks in parallel: assembly new frames and to re-do frames as needed.

As soon as Boeing needs to do a number of frames their delivery schedule is going out of the window - and that hangs completely on the flight testing.
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:38 pm

A damnable situation with those fastners and the software at Honeywell.

Did they get the Honeywell situation resolved yet? I wonder if Boeing could in fact produce thier own fastners to solve any potential problems.
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Stitch
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:46 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 7):
It is the flight testing that worries me most. IMO the schedule is far too compressed to allow for any real problems coming along.

This assumes there is some fundamental flaw in the 787 that will only become apparent once flight tests happen and will be so fundamental it will appear almost immediately. And yet, I think such a design or manufacturing process flaw would be found during testing on LN9997 and LN9998.
 
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:47 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 7):
NCY777: it isn´t the supply chain which worries me most - there are some dangers in. It is the flight testing that worries me most. IMO the schedule is far too compressed to allow for any real problems coming along. Big problem is: once you start rolling-out the airline frames during flight testing you will need to rework all of them when changes are needed. Going to be a) costly, b) time-consuming and c) they are draning much needed resources from the final assembly line to re-do frames, much as Airbus had to do. And we all know that in the end Airbus was forced to halt the A380 assembly line as they were no longer able to manage both tasks in parallel: assembly new frames and to re-do frames as needed.

As soon as Boeing needs to do a number of frames their delivery schedule is going out of the window - and that hangs completely on the flight testing.

Sure it goes without saying that the production schedule as redone is very very aggressive...Boeing has admitted to that it is. If there is a major problem that crops up during flight testing it could threaten that new schedule. Now Boeing restored some flight test margin with the delay. Now from what I've heard on previous conference calls Boeing has a "change Incorporation PRogram" whereby if ther eare are issues that are revealed during flight testing then the required changes are incorporated on the completed air frames as well as planes in manufacture process (depending on where the particular air frame is in the manufacturing process). The point is that Boeing has a plan for any required changes to the built frames on the flight line. This will be pre-planned rework.

Now if there is something major then there might be a problem but they are back to the original flight test margin that was contemplated at the start of the program given the push out of the first flight.
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:48 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Just remember folks, like the $10 billion in deferred revenue from the A380 program, this is not a loss.

Its a lost opportunity, as they will never be able to recoup that revenue in 2008 again, and any new revenue stream from the 787 is pushed futher to the right.

I would say it is a loss.....

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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings

Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:49 pm

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 11):
Its a lost opportunity, as they will never be able to recoup that revenue in 2008 again, and any new revenue stream from the 787 is pushed futher to the right.

Maybe they sell some more 777s in 2008 because of it. That's unplanned revenue right there.

Quote:
I would say it is a loss.....

Fortunately for Boeing and Airbus, the markets don't see it that way.  Smile
 
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:50 pm

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 8):
Did they get the Honeywell situation resolved yet? I wonder if Boeing could in fact produce thier own fastners to solve any potential problems.

From what I heard on teh conference call Honeywell is no longer the long pole in the tent. They have enough time to mature the software to such point that they belive that when they fly next year they will have the final version of the FCS loaded up. They are using the latest finished version right now in the labs from what I understand and if there are any required changes to the programming Boeing and Honeywell have enough time to make them and incorporated in the on board systems.
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:52 pm

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 11):
I would say it is a loss.....

Maybe a loss in opportunity cost yes but a loss on the program or a loss on the first few airplanes delivered I'd say no.
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:54 pm

I think a few interesting points that need to be emphasized is that build rate is continuing and Boeing and the supply chain is not altering the build rate. The second thing is that ETOPS is not part of the flight test program (I believe it was for the 777 program) so that reduces the flight test program scope.
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:59 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 15):
The second thing is that ETOPS is not part of the flight test program (I believe it was for the 777 program) so that reduces the flight test program scope.

Thats interesting, no ETOPS "out of the box", does that mean that the early deliveries will have to fly around on transcon segments and then seek ETOPS certification on a one by one basis?
 
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 3:59 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):
Maybe they sell some more 777s in 2008 because of it. That's unplanned revenue right there.

I don't believe Boeing can sell slots for 2008 this late in 2007 (if any are available)..

Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):
Fortunately for Boeing and Airbus, the markets don't see it that way. Smile

94 doesn't equal 108 dollars, therefore the markets aren't buying up the shares. Unlike CAT, Boeing normally lags any big move in the market, so to say the entire market is down isn't a perfect excuse for the share price drop.
I don't think BAE would agree with you regarding what the market did to the value of Airbus after the A380 delays (not that Airbus has anything to do with the 787).


Cheers
 
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 4:03 pm

Quoting Nycbjr (Reply 16):
Thats interesting, no ETOPS "out of the box", does that mean that the early deliveries will have to fly around on transcon segments and then seek ETOPS certification on a one by one basis?

I think that the first few customers will be doing regional flying (like ANA and the Chinese carriers). I believe ETOPS will probably come a little later.
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 4:03 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 14):
aybe a loss in opportunity cost yes but a loss on the program or a loss on the first few airplanes delivered I'd say no.

With lost revenue there would be lost profit, and if the program doesn't deliver but a few airplanes in 2008, then the program profitability has to be pushed to the right.

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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 4:10 pm

First flight in Spring 2008 and 2-3 aircraft by the year end, starting in December? Three words: cold-weather testing.
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 4:10 pm

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 19):
With lost revenue there would be lost profit, and if the program doesn't deliver but a few airplanes in 2008, then the program profitability has to be pushed to the right.

No there aren't lost revenues. Revenues are pushed out to the right. Now Boeing restated its 2008 revenue forecast to take that into account. The revenues and the resulting profit will show up in 2009. Now there is a cost and that comes with increase inventories (of 787 piling up awaiting delivery). That is cost that they would have to take against 2008 earnings.
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 4:12 pm

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 20):
First flight in Spring 2008 and 2-3 aircraft by the year end, starting in December? Three words: cold-weather testing.

That's not an issue. It'll be cold somewhere in the world during flight testing. And they have to test out systems in the cold weather with alittle bit of flying that should be, what, a week worth of flight testing at the most?
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 4:13 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Just remember folks, like the $10 billion in deferred revenue from the A380 program, this is not a loss

No, however this costs them more in interest, added R&D costs and added personnel. The cost to build each 787 just went up by a few $$$.
 
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 4:39 pm

Quoting Nycbjr (Reply 16):
Thats interesting, no ETOPS "out of the box", does that mean that the early deliveries will have to fly around on transcon segments and then seek ETOPS certification on a one by one basis?

The JAA will not grant NH an ETOPS-180 certificate on first delivery. I do not know what the plans are for the other initial releases.

The FAA has essentially abandoned ETOPS time limts - as long as a US-flag carrier can show they can safely operate a twin on one engine, they can fly as far as they want. So I am guessing NW will be able to fly the 787 wherever they want from first delivery.

Not sure where EASA falls on this.
 
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 4:44 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 21):
No there aren't lost revenues. Revenues are pushed out to the right. Now Boeing restated its 2008 revenue forecast to take that into account. The revenues and the resulting profit will show up in 2009. Now there is a cost and that comes with increase inventories (of 787 piling up awaiting delivery). That is cost that they would have to take against 2008 earnings.

quote
The results beat Wall Street expectations, but the company warned that delays in the launch of its new 787 "Dreamliner" plane would lower its 2008 revenue.
unquote

Are you saying that Boeing will make up all the 2008 deliveries PLUS the original 2009 deliveries in 2009? Even if they pulled this off, they lost inflation for the year /which actually reduces revenue/ (I doubt they can escalate the price when they miss the delivery date).

I personally doubt that Boeing will pile too many more 787s then what was previously planned, due to the cost. (3 billion at 5 percent would be 150+million over 12 months, not including the lost operating margin for the 3 billion (like 600+ million) missing in 2008.

Anyway, didn't cost them tooooo much

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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 4:49 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
The FAA has essentially abandoned ETOPS time limts

Wow I had no idea! Makes sense with todays engines and proven reliability...
 
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 4:53 pm

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 25):
quote
The results beat Wall Street expectations, but the company warned that delays in the launch of its new 787 "Dreamliner" plane would lower its 2008 revenue.
unquote

Are you saying that Boeing will make up all the 2008 deliveries PLUS the original 2009 deliveries in 2009? Even if they pulled this off, they lost inflation for the year /which actually reduces revenue/ (I doubt they can escalate the price when they miss the delivery date).

I personally doubt that Boeing will pile too many more 787s then what was previously planned, due to the cost. (3 billion at 5 percent would be 150+million over 12 months, not including the lost operating margin for the 3 billion (like 600+ million) missing in 2008.

Anyway, didn't cost them tooooo much

Cheers

Revenues are realized once the customer takes delivery of the airplane so unless customers start canceling order than revenues aren't lost but in the case that Boeing is in right now the revenues are deferred from 2008 to 2009. I didn't say that Boeing is for sure going to make up all the deferred revenues from 2008 into 2009 but that is what Boeing is saying will happen . If Boeing can deliver 109 787 by December 31, 2009 then they would have met most of their 787 revenue target for that time period. Now what you are talking about is lost opportunity cost which I agree there isw a lost opportunity cost, if they had delivered the 40 787 in 2008 they would have reinvested those proceeds, etc. There is certainly a lost opportunity cost.
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 4:57 pm

I'm confused.

In it's original announcement of the delay, Boeing said:
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/news/2007/q4/071010d_nr.html

Quote:
The company said the financial impact of the delay would not be material to earnings and that its earnings guidance for 2007 and 2008 remained unchanged.

Now they're saying the 2008 revenue impact is -$4bn? Bit of a difference in just two weeks.  scratchchin 

If 2008 revenue is down $4bn, in order for earnings not to be impacted, Boeing must be cutting $4bn in costs somewhere. How are they doing that, given the 787 delays will, in fact, increase costs?
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings

Wed Oct 24, 2007 5:02 pm

I guess Boeing now knows what those delays are going to cost in deferred revenues and other associated costs where they didn't two weeks ago. *shrug*

All I ask is we don't waste another thousand posts on this like we did on the A380 revenue deferments and impacts, since what applied there applies here, so just do a search.  devil  Big grin
 
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 5:09 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 28):
If 2008 revenue is down $4bn, in order for earnings not to be impacted, Boeing must be cutting $4bn in costs somewhere. How are they doing that, given the 787 delays will, in fact, increase costs?

They're probably not booking the Costs of Goods Sold (ie the 787) until they book the revenue of each 787 when it is delivered. So they'll book the revenues and cost for each 787 sold when it is delivered to the customer.
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 5:12 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 27):
Revenues are realized once the customer takes delivery of the airplane so unless customers start canceling order than revenues aren't lost but in the case that Boeing is in right now the revenues are deferred from 2008 to 2009. I didn't say that Boeing is for sure going to make up all the deferred revenues from 2008 into 2009 but that is what Boeing is saying will happen . If Boeing can deliver 109 787 by December 31, 2009 then they would have met most of their 787 revenue target for that time period. Now what you are talking about is lost opportunity cost which I agree there isw a lost opportunity cost, if they had delivered the 40 787 in 2008 they would have reinvested those proceeds, etc. There is certainly a lost opportunity cost.

I agree that is hard to lose something you never had, and did say "opportunity in my original post.

Cheers

Quoting Shenzhen (Reply 11):
Its a lost opportunity, as they will never be able to recoup that revenue in 2008 again, and any new revenue stream from the 787 is pushed futher to the right.

I would say it is a loss.....

Cheers
 
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 5:23 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 22):
It'll be cold somewhere in the world during flight testing

Where exactly between Spring and December will have the sustained cold temperatures, freezing rain and snow required?

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 22):
a week worth of flight testing at the most?

Not if you want those '2-3 aircraft' working over the winter.
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 5:30 pm

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 32):
Where exactly between Spring and December will have the sustained cold temperatures, freezing rain and snow required?

Southern Hemisphere

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 32):
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 22):
a week worth of flight testing at the most?

Not if you want those '2-3 aircraft' working over the winter.

While I'm nolt familiar with the require flight hours or procedures, I'm sure Boeing in its original plan had allocated a certain number of air frames for a certain period of time to conduct cold weather testing. Now that Boeing has restored the original margin back into the flight test program all they need to do is find an appropriate location to conduct said tests.

Jut to put the test flight program in to perspective. Originally Boeing's pla was to have first flight at the end of August (let's say Begining of Sept for arguments sake) and first delivery in May 2008 ( let's assume end of May) . That's nine months.

Under the new schedule the first flight doesn't occur until end of March (let's say begining of April) and first delivery at the end of December. That's 9 months. Thus the original margin for flight testing has been restored assuming 6 test airplanes, 1 static and 1 fatigue air frame.

[Edited 2007-10-24 10:38:14]

[Edited 2007-10-24 10:39:26]
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 5:30 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 24):
The JAA will not grant NH an ETOPS-180 certificate on first delivery. I do not know what the plans are for the other initial releases.

The FAA has essentially abandoned ETOPS time limts - as long as a US-flag carrier can show they can safely operate a twin on one engine, they can fly as far as they want. So I am guessing NW will be able to fly the 787 wherever they want from first delivery.

Not sure where EASA falls on this.

EASA has ETOPS and LROPS, and are quite stringent. FAA went for their 1x105/flt hr IFSD rate in February this year, that's more stringent than ETOPS (it remains to be seen whether FAA will grant this to airframe/engine combinations out of the box, I assume not - Boeing will not have done enough route proving trips.) The FAA's new ideas get rid of ETOPS for twin-engined aircraft, and has ETOPS-type restrictions on 3/4-engined aircraft (along with the obligatory grandfathering).
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings

Wed Oct 24, 2007 5:31 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 33):
Southern Hemisphere

Yes. Where?

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 33):
I'm sure Boeing in its original plan had allocated a certain number of air frames for a certain period of time to conduct cold weather testing. Now that Boeing has restored the original margin back into the flight test program all they need to do is find an appropriate location to conduct said tests.

Boeing's original plan was tight, and would have had the flight tests at somewhere like Glasgow, Montana - somewhere with the sustained weather they needed, somewhere close and somewhere they knew.

[Edited 2007-10-24 10:33:05]
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777236ER
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 5:33 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 33):
I'm sure Boeing in its original plan had allocated a certain number of air frames for a certain period of time to conduct cold weather testing. Now that Boeing has restored the original margin back into the flight test program all they need to do is find an appropriate location to conduct said tests.

Boeing's original plan was tight, and would have had the flight tests at somewhere like Glasgow, Montana - somewhere with the sustained weather they needed, somewhere close and somewhere they knew.

By the way the multiple posts are because I can't edit my posts, long live Demand Media.
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 5:34 pm

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 35):
Quoting NYC777 (Reply 33):
Southern Hemisphere

Yes. Where?

Dude that's not for me to decide...it's for Boeing to find one but if it's summer in one place it has to be winter in another place. That's how it is on planet Earth ya know!
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 5:40 pm

Just to put the test flight program in to perspective. Originally Boeing's plan was to have first flight at the end of August (let's say Begining of Sept for arguments sake) and first delivery in May 2008 (let's assume end of May) . That's nine months.

Under the new schedule the first flight doesn't occur until end of March (let's say begining of April) and first delivery at the end of December. That's 9 months. Thus the original margin for flight testing has been restored assuming 6 test airplanes, 1 static and 1 fatigue air frame.
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777236ER
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 5:41 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 37):

Dude that's not for me to decide...it's for Boeing to find one but if it's summer in one place it has to be winter in another place. That's how it is on planet Earth ya know!

Seriously, where is there that's not in the middle of nowhere, has the sustained cold weather and is accessible to an experimental widebody aircraft between Spring and December next year? Bear in mind you won't be able to do the tests at the start of the flight test phase - Boeing will need a good few weeks of preliminary flight testing before doing cold-weather testing.
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flysherwood
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 5:42 pm

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 32):
Where exactly between Spring and December will have the sustained cold temperatures, freezing rain and snow required?

Siberia? The Southern Hemisphere? Northern-most Canada?  confused 
 
lotsamiles
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 5:42 pm

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 4):
are we going to see them pulling more people out of Integrated Defense Systems to the commercial side

This has already been happening for months.

Quoting DAYflyer (Reply 8):
A damnable situation with those fastners and the software at Honeywell

The example I know of has nothing to do with fasteners or software, either.
 
NYC777
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 5:46 pm

Ok so if Boeing did cold weather testing in Oct.-Nov. 2008 (this time of year) they could do it in Anchorage Alaska. It's below freezing there. Again I don't know what the specific FAA/EASA cold weather testing requirements are for certification but it seems that you can find a place on earth where it is cold enough to do cold weather testing whether it is July or January.
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Stitch
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 5:54 pm

Quoting 777236ER (Reply 39):
Seriously, where is there that's not in the middle of nowhere, has the sustained cold weather and is accessible to an experimental widebody aircraft between Spring and December next year?

There has to be some place, even if it is in the middle of nowhere. It will cost more, sure, but a lot less then just sitting on their production capacity for a year waiting for Winter 2008 to roll around.
 
NYC777
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 5:58 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 43):
There has to be some place, even if it is in the middle of nowhere. It will cost more, sure, but a lot less then just sitting on their production capacity for a year waiting for Winter 2008 to roll around.

Anchorage Alaska in the middle of November looks good, high is about 27 F and low is about 15 F. SOunds liek the place to be. Are the temps low enough for testing there?
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moo
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 6:01 pm

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 40):
Siberia? The Southern Hemisphere? Northern-most Canada?

Siberia can go from -15C average in January to around +20C average in July, on average. Its not the frozen wasteland year round that people expect.

Canada also sees a similar temperature shift.

Theres nowhere in the northern hemisphere that can guarantee sustained -20C or less in order to carry out these tests during the time period suggested.

There are also extremely few places south enough of the equator to guarantee sustained -20C or less, even in the southern hemispheres winter phase. Even the Falkland Islands only sees an average of 2C during winter.

Its not a simple question to answer - 'the southern hemisphere' seems to be a popular choice on here, but its not an answer that suffices when you look at the variables involved.

The informed opinion is that Boeing will certify the 787 without cold weather testing, and the first operators will be restricted until cold weather testing is done somewhere around Christmas 2008. Its unlikely that any restrictions placed on the 787 will have much of an impact on those operators.
 
777236ER
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 6:05 pm

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 40):
Siberia? The Southern Hemisphere? Northern-most Canada?

Specifics? Siberia and northern-most Canada aren't particularly accessible to an experimental widebody aircraft and test crew.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 43):

There has to be some place, even if it is in the middle of nowhere. It will cost more, sure, but a lot less then just sitting on their production capacity for a year waiting for Winter 2008 to roll around.

Or you can reduce the tests and hope everything will be OK, figuring that airlines will expect operational interrupts with a new aircraft. Or you can do the through tests and push be deliveries.

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 42):
Ok so if Boeing did cold weather testing in Oct.-Nov. 2008 (this time of year) they could do it in Anchorage Alaska. It's below freezing there.

October only has 7 inches of snowfall on average for the whole month, and the average temperature is between -1.9C and a positively steamy 4.7C.

I think Boeing are hoping for a cold winter.
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NYC777
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 6:08 pm

Well if that's the case then they can got to ANC or Fairbanks Alaska in January-February 2009 as it is pretty cold there at that time of year.

BTW, does anyone have records of past widebody cold weather testing (where, when and required temps and for how long). That data might aid in this question and how long have regulators required cold weather testing as part of certification (if it is required for the immediate certification)?
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siromega
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings Call

Wed Oct 24, 2007 6:09 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Thread starter):

+ Expect about 3 - 4 787 deliveries in 2008 and about 105 - 106 787 deliveries in 2009

This is what I dont get - isn't Boeing going to have a ton of 787s done by EIS? They talk about increased inventory during 08, I assume they should have more than 3 or 4 done by December 08.
 
777236ER
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RE: 787 Update From Boeing's 3rd Quarter Earnings

Wed Oct 24, 2007 6:12 pm

Quoting NYC777 (Reply 47):
Well if that's the case then they can got to ANC or Fairbanks Alaska in January-February 2009 as it is pretty cold there at that time of year.

Jan-Feb 2009 means Boeing has to accept that the aircraft will have cold-weather problems. It all depends on what promises Boeing made to the airlines. It's another trade Boeing has to make, and in my opinion I think it will stop Boeing delivering the aircraft in 2007.
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