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mariner
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Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Thu Oct 25, 2007 11:14 pm

Frontier has just reported a profit of $17.3 million for the quarter - an excellent result.

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drm...icle/0,1299,DRMN_4_5731640,00.html

It is small fry compared with some of the legacy carriers, but Frontier is small fry compared with them.

It is a tough environment with $90 oil, and they are predicting a loss for the next Q. But this profit is more than double the analysts consensus estimates.

Mr. menke has also said that every route is being sternly examined for profitability, and that there are no "sacred cows". So I am expecting some adjustments to the route map.

And some surprises.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
panam330
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Thu Oct 25, 2007 11:29 pm

A profit is a profit, no matter how big or small. Great job to the folks at F9! Hope to try your airline out someday!  Smile
 
FRNT787
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Thu Oct 25, 2007 11:57 pm

Quoting PanAm330 (Reply 1):
A profit is a profit, no matter how big or small.


 checkmark 

I expect their profit to increase as they look harder into their route schedule to make it more profitable.

2008 Looks great with Lynx (hopefully) to get going full steam and first A320s.
"We have a right to fail, because failure makes us grow" --Glenn Beck
 
sampa737
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 12:10 am

Does anyone know how the new routes out of MEM are doing? Do you think Frontier will add more in the future?
 
Boston92
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 12:11 am

F9 really needs to open up an east coast hub (or at least a focus city)...this would significantly open up more passengers in the east who need to stay east of Denver.
"Why does a slight tax increase cost you $200 and a substantial tax cut save you 30 cents?"
 
FlagshipAZ
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 12:33 am

So what is the current fleet numbers looking like these days? How many of each Airbus model? Any new Airbuses coming online soon?
Good for Frontier. I hope they'll continue with their good fortune. Maybe someday I'll go back & work for them here in ANC seasonally.
Regards.
"Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy." --Ben Franklin
 
ytib
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 1:10 am

Quoting FlagshipAZ (Reply 5):
So what is the current fleet numbers looking like these days? How many of each Airbus model? Any new Airbuses coming online soon?
Good for Frontier. I hope they'll continue with their good fortune. Maybe someday I'll go back & work for them here in ANC seasonally.
Regards.

Frontier
60 Aircraft Total for
- 49 A319
- 11 A318
- A320 start deliveries in FY08 Q4 (aka Feb 08) - total of 10 on order

Lynx
4 Aircraft delivered and sitting at BJC
6 more on order with 10 options

Frontier Express
- E170 by Republic
- CR7 by Horizon ending in Dec 07
- E145 by ExpressJet starting in Nov 07 for a few months to cover some of the routes due to the Lynx delay.
 
F9Animal
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 8:17 am

This is great news, and certainly needed cash. F9 has been very smart with their money, saving for rainy days. I too expected next quarter to be rough due to the startup of Lynx. Once Lynx gets flying, I expect positive results in a matter of months. I really admire how F9 has invested into its structure and future. I certainly miss Potter, and he has done many wonderful things for Frontier. I wish him the best of luck. I bet we see him back in the future.  Wink The airline industry is in his blood, and he will miss the Animals.

Quoting Mariner (Thread starter):
Mr. menke has also said that every route is being sternly examined for profitability, and that there are no "sacred cows". So I am expecting some adjustments to the route map.

And some surprises.

This is indeed music to my ears. I can vision a reduction in frequencies in markets that are not bringing in the cash flow. It would be nice to see them align more flights to the east coast, and perhaps add a few more routes out of MEM.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
DIA
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 1:03 pm

Being in the black, no matter how little, is certainly better than being in the red, no matter how much.
Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
 
747fan
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 1:06 pm

I believe DEN-SDF is doing well, given that the flight started out with 2X daily Republic E170's back in April, is currently an E170 and an A319, and will be 2 A319's next month. I'll have to find an excuse to get to Denver or somewhere else out wsest so I can try them out; my uncle flew them last month and said they were excellent.
 
Type-Rated
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 2:29 pm

Does F9 still have that codeshare deal with AirTran?

After they started that and you went to the F9 website and tried to make a reservation anywhere east of DEN, you were directed to AirTran's website. I noticed now it doesn't do that. You can book F9 to most any city they fly to.

I fly Frontier out of IAH. Their flights always seem to be packed. Based on my personal experience, I think that Frontier has some of the hardest working F/A's out there. There is always at least one in the aisle most of the time.
Fly North Central Airlines..The route of the Northliners!
 
ytib
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 2:36 pm

Quoting Type-Rated (Reply 10):
Does F9 still have that codeshare deal with AirTran?

Technically it is not a codeshare but a marketing agreement. It is still in place as I just typed ATL-BOS on the website and it populated Boston for me even though they do not fly there and directed me to AirTran's website.
 
ytib
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 2:39 pm

Quoting Ytib (Reply 6):
Lynx
4 Aircraft delivered and sitting at BJC
6 more on order with 10 options

As I type this N505LX is over Michigan heading to MCI and then on to BJC. So the numbers will be 5 delivered and waiting , plus 5 more on order.
 
Type-Rated
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 4:11 pm

Quoting Type-Rated (Reply 10):
It is still in place as I just typed ATL-BOS on the website and it populated Boston for me even though they do not fly there and directed me to AirTran's website.

But if you type in IAH-MDW, it'll now show you F9 flights where before it sent you to AirTran. Since F9 serves both cities, I'm glad to be able to take F9. Even changing at DEN the flights are much more comfortable than anyone else.
Fly North Central Airlines..The route of the Northliners!
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 5:36 pm

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 7):
I can vision a reduction in frequencies in markets that are not bringing in the cash flow.

It may not be just a reduction in frequency, F9Animal. I think it is possible that they may drop a station or two.

In either case, I would expect some expansion in frequency at other stations. At the moment, Mr. Menke doesn't have many spare mainline aircraft to play with, despite the coming A320's.

But they are being tight-lipped - about everything - and I imagine Mr. Menke is going through it all with a fine tooth comb.

There still has been no decision yet on the hangar (DEN or COS?) and, publicly, they've gone quiet on the C gate expansion at DEN. I assume we will hear something soon.

Quoting Ytib (Reply 11):
Technically it is not a codeshare but a marketing agreement.

Correct, ytib. But they are discussing expanding it to a full codesare:

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drm.../0,2777,DRMN_23912_5732395,00.html

"Executives from both sides have said they are discussing whether to expand that partnership."

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
tripleboom
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 5:47 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 15):
publicly, they've gone quiet on the C gate expansion at DEN. I assume we will hear something soon.

I just spoke with a couple of the MODs here in DEN and the C Concourse plans are still moving along.. looks like we could be looking at that as a a reality by the end of the year. Supposed to be "low-priority" flights, i.e. Mexico outbounds that require passengers be checked in plenty early anyway. Should be interesting (translate hectic) out there for the CSA and RSA sides of things, but I just got promoted just in time to beat the DEN winter blues! Cozy office with hot cocoa here I come!
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 6:19 pm

Quoting Tripleboom (Reply 16):
I just got promoted just in time to beat the DEN winter blues! Cozy office with hot cocoa here I come!

Congrats! Moving up the corporate ladder?  Smile

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
tripleboom
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 7:13 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 17):
Congrats! Moving up the corporate ladder?

lol.. trying.. moved into Central Reservations Control. Scary because I'll have to sign a sworn affadavit (or something like that) that says yes I will have FAR advanced knowledge of cities we will be announcing or discontinuing service to, but I will not be able to tell ANYONE. Not my wife, and certainly not my a.net addicts that would kill to have a spot like this in an airline. It'll be so cool to know, but it will kill me not to be able to tell anyone!
 
ytib
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 7:14 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 15):

In either case, I would expect some expansion in frequency at other stations. At the moment, Mr. Menke doesn't have many spare mainline aircraft to play with, despite the coming A320's.

I noticed last night there was an aircraft doing a DEN-BOI-FAT-DEN charter, the BOI-FAT being the 8xxx flight with the pax and also there was a DEN-BOS-DEN run as well bringing pax back to DEN for the world series. So there may be some aircraft, but charters especially this time of year bring in extra revenue.  Wink
 
RJNUT
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 7:21 pm

Quoting Tripleboom (Reply 15):
but I just got promoted just in time to beat the DEN winter blues

thats funny, but I have always found Denver exceptionally bright and sunny in the winter and sometimes quite warm,until then of course MArch and APril when real winter arrives!
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 7:39 pm

Quoting Ytib (Reply 18):
So there may be some aircraft, but charters especially this time of year bring in extra revenue.

Oh, always. Even so, the fleet is tight, and the only aircraft coming in are the 2 x A320, early next year. After that, there are scheduled until May (?) 2009.

Quoting Tripleboom (Reply 17):
it will kill me not to be able to tell anyone!

Of course, you may not know that there is an exception clause in the FAR agreement. You may not tell anyone - not even your wife - but you are allowed to tell mariner.  Smile

More seriously, Mr. Menke's line that "there are no sacred cows" seems to have thrown a cat among the pigeons (to mix an animal metaphor) among my chums.

They're all trying to guess which stations woud be considered "sacred cows".

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
EXAAUADL
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 7:40 pm

Quoting Boston92 (Reply 4):
F9 really needs to open up an east coast hub (or at least a focus city)...this would significantly open up more passengers in the east who need to stay east of Denver.

Not a good idea


F9 has proven itself not to be very successful on routes that are non-mexico and non-Denver.....F9 has an excelletn reputation in DEN and has an extensive small business program to get business travellers that arent part of big CVAs....they get premium farse out of DEN, sometimes even higher than UA...but they are unknown outside of DEN and would be a low yield trash carrier...remember when ML went to PHL in 1991???
 
tripleboom
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Fri Oct 26, 2007 7:50 pm

Quoting RJNUT (Reply 19):
exceptionally bright and sunny

Except for last winter.. even if it were perfect this year, I still don't feel much like working a bunch of flights on A25 with the north wind blowing unrestrained right in my face. There is not amount of layering that could keep me warm enough..
 
LAXintl
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 5:55 am

Aviation Daily had a lenghty write up. Some interesting pieces;

Quote:
Menke Starts Review Of Frontier's Strategy
10/29/2007

Frontier management, under the leadership of new CEO Sean Menke, has started a critical review of the airline's strategies covering deployment of the fleet and scrutiny of the use of technology - particularly the carrier's Web site.

Menke returned to Frontier in September after leaving the carrier in 2005 to take the executive VP and chief commercial officer post at Air Canada. Late last week, Menke outlined his review of the route network and technology approach to analysts and investors.

The CEO said that during the last couple of years he's dedicated a lot of time to the distribution area and has learned what customers are and are not willing to do. "If you find the appropriate piece that could be placed into the Frontier system, I believe there are additional dollars that could be driven that allow the consumer to actually have what they want and allow the airline to get additional revenue," he said. But Frontier's current technology provider likely will not "take us to the finish line," he added. The Web site is an area Frontier is "taking a hard look at," according to carrier CFO Paul Tate, who said, "Suffice to say right now we're disappointed;" more bookings are not being driven to the site.

Frontier executives are also "really digging into the routes," Menke said, to understand what is and is not working and redeploy the assets, if necessary, to ensure "we get the returns we need."

Full article (subscription required)
http://www.aviationnow.com/publicati...ts+Review+Of+Frontier%27s+Strategy

I wonder if Menke will pursue Air Canada's unbundling of services and piece meal pricing options at F9?
From the desert to the sea, to all of Southern California
 
Kohflot
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 6:46 am

Quoting Mariner (Reply 20):
They're all trying to guess which stations woud be considered "sacred cows".

My guesses: DCA, LGA, and SNA. The slot-controlled airports that are supposed to have a pot of gold at the end of every runway.

It wouldn't surprise me if F9 is struggling with some of these cities yield-wise, as it's easy to imagine most of the clientele they're desiring are actually still with United or other carriers with F class, a global frequent flier program, and lounges.
Ask why..
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 7:57 am

Quoting Kohflot (Reply 24):
DCA, LGA, and SNA.

I don't have access to the yield on specific routes, but DCA would surprise me. Some months ago, Mr. Potter was asked what his three wishes would be, and one was more slots at DCA because, he said, they do so well there.

LGA? Dunno, but they don't seem to have a problem filling the aircraft and it was their choice to add the red-eye.

Similarly, they didn't refuse the 2 extra slots - 1 arrival, 1 departure - at SNA this year, for 4 x daily, they were offered for this year.

I've stayed out of the guessing game, because no one can quite know what is in Mr. Menke's mind. There may be stations that, in themselves, don't do all that well, but provide critical feed at DEN.

There is also the question of multiple frequencies on the common routes with Southwest - they may be great for market share, but what do they do to yield?

There may be a couple of the Mexican p2p's that are wobbly - I'm not at all sure that BNA-CUN is worth the bother, and it seems to screw up any Mexican expansion they might have in mind for MEM.

And I think they have to make a decision about MEM, too. They're adding an additional MEM-MCO and also MEM-FLL by Christmas, so - is it a focus city or not? If it is, I think they need to add a couple of business routes. If it isn't, I don't quite know what it is.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
F9Animal
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 8:10 am

Quoting HikesWithEyes (Reply 14):
Of course, if it was AS getting out of a market, you would be howling about the injustice of lost jobs.

Hikes, who said F9 was cutting jobs? Your a little quick at the assumption.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 25):
And I think they have to make a decision about MEM, too. They're adding an additional MEM-MCO and also MEM-FLL by Christmas, so - is it a focus city or not? If it is, I think they need to add a couple of business routes. If it isn't, I don't quite know what it is.

mariner

I think it would be wise to take a shot at more flights out of MEM. NW has really reduced flying out of MEM, and there is plenty of opportunity out of there. I could see them taking advantage of MEM for some Caribbean routes perhaps. NAS and SJU would be a nice start. I know Potter had mentioned several times that he had visions and urges to hit the islands. Now might be a good time to look into it, if they have not already started looking.  Smile In fact, it would be nice to see old Mariner kick off the service! LOL!
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
apodino
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 8:31 am

Quoting Tripleboom (Reply 15):
I just spoke with a couple of the MODs here in DEN and the C Concourse plans are still moving along.. looks like we could be looking at that as a a reality by the end of the year. Supposed to be "low-priority" flights, i.e. Mexico outbounds that require passengers be checked in plenty early anyway. Should be interesting (translate hectic) out there for the CSA and RSA sides of things, but I just got promoted just in time to beat the DEN winter blues! Cozy office with hot cocoa here I come!

I am a bit confused. Frontier operates from the A concourse at DEN (or so I thought), and we are talking about a C Concourse expansion? If there is a C Concourse Expansion, wouldn't it be easier to move CO to C to give F9 more room in A? Especially after United agreed to move the Ted flights out of A and onto B with the rest of the UA flights, which should have freed more gate space for F9. Am I missing something here?
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 8:36 am

Quoting Apodino (Reply 27):
If there is a C Concourse Expansion, wouldn't it be easier to move CO to C to give F9 more room in A?

Yes. But Continental would have to agree, and they haven't, not yet at least.

Quoting Apodino (Reply 27):
which should have freed more gate space for F9. Am I missing something here?

Frontier took over all the UA/Ted gates on A. But they also advised DIA in April that they needed three more gates.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
AirframeAS
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 9:13 am

Congrats to F9! Good job! I am very excited and looking forward to my very first trip ever on F9 on Nov 19th PHX-DEN!  bouncy 

Quoting Ytib (Reply 6):
Frontier
60 Aircraft Total for
- 49 A319
- 11 A318
- A320 start deliveries in FY08 Q4 (aka Feb 08) - total of 10 on order

Mariner or F9Animal: With the A320's coming online, will F9 be phasing out the A318's and becoming an A319/20 only fleet? I think this would make alot of sense for F9, IMO.

Quoting Ytib (Reply 6):
- CR7 by Horizon ending in Dec 07

I thought this was already over.

Quoting Ytib (Reply 18):
I noticed last night there was an aircraft doing a DEN-BOI-FAT-DEN charter, the BOI-FAT being the 8xxx flight with the pax

This was the Fresno State charter, I think. They played Boise State tonight (or last night as I type this...) and lost.
A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 9:35 am

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 29):
will F9 be phasing out the A318's and becoming an A319/20 only fleet?

I doubt it. The A318 is very useful to Frontier.

It would also mean a fleet reduction. They have 11 x A318, but only 10 x A320 coming in.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
CarsAir04
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 1:21 pm

DCA & LGA are always full and usually produce a good yield. Even in the winter is can be hard to non-rev to these 2 cities. A lot of the Colorado congressmen can be found on the DCA flight.

My guess is that Menke will take a look at some of the cities that have 3-6 flights a day in which they are not needed. I often notice that only one or two of the flights to certain cities that have 4 or more flights are full, while the others have very few on the flights. Now this isn't an all year thing of course, but maybe during those known times, flights can be cut and put to better use on the more popular routes to Florida, Mexico, etc.

I read an article today in the Rocky Mountain News that Menke was also looking to tighten ties with other airlines thru partnerships or code-shares. It was mentioned a while back about Hawaiian having a flight out of Denver, possibly starting a partnership with F9. I think that would be great for both. UA started non-stop to Hawaii and the loads look really good and I think there is room for more. F9 could filter that traffic to Denver from a lot of their cities and connect them to the Hawaiian flight.

I think the future is bright for Frontier and Menke is just the guy to take them a little further. He and Tate also mentioned in that article that their technology, ie: website, kiosks, etc, are things that need to be improved and will probably have some top priority over the next few years.
 
Type-Rated
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 4:16 pm

I think that maybe a few tag on flights may work for F9.
DEN-MDW-DCA might work, only ATA has nonstops MDW-DCA
DEN-MEM-DCA or LGA may work. NW charges outrageous prices on the MEM-DCA leg.
Fly North Central Airlines..The route of the Northliners!
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 4:28 pm

Quoting Type-Rated (Reply 32):
DEN-MEM-DCA or LGA may work. NW charges outrageous prices on the MEM-DCA leg.

While I'm only going by what I've seen, it would seem F9 is already playing with fire at MEM, and I'm sure additional services will be met by the the big red compass smackdown again. Not saying F9 would fail - who's to say? Their product is certainly better than any NW DC-9 or CRJ, but NW just doesn't ever seem to want to play nice.

If the flights were to leisure destinations, maybe NW wouldn't bother. But on the business routes, it would seem like NW would fight the fight. Let's just hope they don't start up their "We're going to be adding NW service from Denver to DCA, LGA, and CUN" crap.

-Dave
-Dave
 
FRNT787
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 5:29 pm

Quoting Kohflot (Reply 24):
SNA.

Have flown twice on DFW-DEN-SNA and all of the DEN-SNA flights were full. The only problem was that it was summer and much of the traffic was the infamous Disneyland Crowd.
"We have a right to fail, because failure makes us grow" --Glenn Beck
 
F9Animal
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 6:29 pm

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 29):
Mariner or F9Animal: With the A320's coming online, will F9 be phasing out the A318's and becoming an A319/20 only fleet? I think this would make alot of sense for F9, IMO.

I think the A320 will compliment the fleet nicely. It will offer more seats to the heavy routes like LAS and a few Mexico destinations. I doubt F9 will let the 318's go, as they are efficient for the operation. I would not be surprised if F9 gets more of them in the future actually (318's that is).
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 6:36 pm

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 33):
it would seem F9 is already playing with fire at MEM,

Yes.

But also "perhaps not".

NWA went junior nuclear when Frontier announced MEM, and immediately added service on MEM-MCO and MEM-LAS, and changed MEM-DEN to mainline.

For good measure - to teach Frontier a lesson - they added IND-DEN. And for more good measure, Airtran added MEM-MCO.

(I've never understood Airtran's rationale for that - MEM isn't really "their turf").

Did it have an affect? Originally, on MEM-LAS, yes, although that may - stress "may" - be turning around now.

MEM-MCO has been different, maybe because it is actually DEN-MEM-MCO, and gets a fair amount of through traffic. Yield might be the question. For a while, in the summer, Airtran was offering some $84 round trips MEM-MCO.

But when it became clear that Frontier wasn't going away, NWA's 4th MEM-MCO became a variable, mostly only operating on week-ends, and Airtran cut MEM-MCO to 5 x weekly for slow season - I think it is back to daily now or soon.

Meanwhile, NWA's IND-DEN went away in August and Frontier announced MEM-FLL, a second MEM-MCO and a third daily MEM-DEN.

And NWA kept quite quiet, maybe in line with your theory that they won't over-react to leisure routes. But yes, I agree, destinations like LGA and DCA would get a different reaction. And anyhoo, Frontier couldn't get slots for those.

I don't know what NWA would do about - say - MEM-MDW because NWA does not serve that.

Comes the bigger question of the overall value of MEM to Frontier. I think - and this is just me - they either need to decide if they want a small focus city there and protect that - or they need to put those aircraft elsewhere.

As a couple of good analysts have noted, Frontier's primary and almost over-riding concern has to be DEN. Very few cities can support a three airline hub, and while Southwest doesn't have "hubs" (they say), they have ramped up at DEN and it took Frontier a while to learn how to cope with that.

I think this quarter's results are outstanding, especially in view of (a) oil at $90 and (b) the Southwest DEN ramp-up.

But they are Mr. Potter's results, largely because of all the changes Frontier made earlier in the year. Mr. Menke has to put his stamp on the airline now.

He's been tough already - dropping SAN-MZT before it started - so not even the Mexico flying is a sacred cow.

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
F9Animal
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 6:41 pm

Hey Mariner, what are your feelings on Lynx? There was just another gear collapse with SAS on the Q400. Do you think this might cause a further delay on getting them certified if they ground the Q400's again? I sure hope not!!!
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 8:13 pm

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 37):
Hey Mariner, what are your feelings on Lynx? There was just another gear collapse with SAS on the Q400.

And Qantas have just ordered 12 more plus 24 options.  Smile

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSSYD14049820071022

I don't know what is happening with the Q400 at SAS, but it seems unqiue to them. I am told (?) it may have something to do with salt-air corrosion, but Horizon doesn't seem to be having the problem at SEA.

I think Lynx/Q400 is great idea for Frontier, and they are moving closer to certification, they are going to the proving runs. According to this article, both sides have agreed to a schedule that would see it up and running by early December:

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drm.../0,2777,DRMN_23912_5731920,00.html

"An FAA spokesman said the two sides have agreed on a tentative schedule that could give Frontier approval in early December.

The FAA has essentially signed off on all the appropriate training manuals, procedural documents and other materials related to Lynx and has moved on to the demonstration phase.

"The simplest way to say this is that the airline now demonstrates to us that they can launch a flight on time, land on time and do it safely," said Allen Kenitzer of the FAA."


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AirframeAS
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 9:35 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 30):
I doubt it. The A318 is very useful to Frontier.

It would also mean a fleet reduction. They have 11 x A318, but only 10 x A320 coming in.

I swore I could have remembered a conversation with someone, I think it was F9Animal or Mariner or someone else that F9 could be phasing out the 18's in favor of the 20's and retaining the 19's. But then again, maybe I was just hallucinating.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 38):
...Horizon doesn't seem to be having the problem at SEA.

That is because SEA is nowhere near a coastline or a body of water. The closest body of water is Angle Lake (1 mile south) and Puget Sound (10 miles to the west). They are up on the hill. Plus the air isn't that salty at all.

I think Lynx using the Q400's is a winner. All it takes is the DEN media to shut the hell up about the safety flaws and let Lynx prove itself as a reliable carrier alongside its bigger sister: F9. Lynx and F9 should do what AS/QX is doing in terms of being in the same partnership/group.
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 10:56 pm

Quoting Mariner (Reply 36):
Comes the bigger question of the overall value of MEM to Frontier. I think - and this is just me - they either need to decide if they want a small focus city there and protect that - or they need to put those aircraft elsewhere.

Thank you for the analysis as always.

In regards to a focus city, you have to worry - if that's the right word - after they pulled out of LAX, and certainly carriers like AirTran are also having a hard time finding a new focus city that can stand up to the legacies and also make money.

I realize that these things are in a sense unrelated, but when you see carriers enter and leave cities, you start to wonder if they'll find one that will work. I certainly support them trying, and I don't think there is a crystal ball to tell them where to try next. Just look at the track record for the entire industry.

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 39):
I swore I could have remembered a conversation with someone, I think it was F9Animal or Mariner or someone else that F9 could be phasing out the 18's in favor of the 20's and retaining the 19's. But then again, maybe I was just hallucinating.

It certainly wouldn't have been Mariner, and I know I've never heard this before personally. It's always sounded like they are happy with the aircraft. But I also hoped they'd go A321, so who knows?

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7e72004
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 11:17 pm

How are the IND flights doing? (Both the IND-DEN and IND-CUN?)
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lrdc9
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 11:43 pm

Quoting Type-Rated (Reply 32):
ATA has nonstops MDW-DCA

Not for long, they are dropping sevice to DCA and LGA, not a god sign. At least as I understandi it, the charters are quite profitable.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 36):
And anyhoo, Frontier couldn't get slots for those.

With ATA leaving a slots created for an LCC, F9 might be able to get it's hands on the slots.

As a DCA flyer many hopes to the success of F9 Linx, and them gettig the DCA and LGA slots (if they want them).
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Alias1024
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sat Oct 27, 2007 11:46 pm

First, congrats to everyone at Frontier on a very good quarter!!!

I think the Q400 is a very smart move for F9. In an era of high fuel prices, it is the perfect aircraft for most routes too small for mainline. The economics of the aircraft are spectacular....when it works. SAS isn't the only airline that has had caution panels lighting up like christmas trees. Most operators have had some reliability issues (mostly avionics) with the Q400, but more recent software updates have hopefully fixed a lot of these problems. Given the excellent reputation of F9 maintenance, I think they will do a good job of quickly learning the quirks of the aircraft and will have good reliability from it after a short time. Colgan on the other hand is going to be pure comedy. They will probably run out of room in the flight deck for all the MEL stickers.
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FRNT787
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sun Oct 28, 2007 12:49 am

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 39):
I swore I could have remembered a conversation with someone, I think it was F9Animal or Mariner or someone else that F9 could be phasing out the 18's in favor of the 20's and retaining the 19's. But then again, maybe I was just hallucinating.

Perhaps you are thinking of their conversion of 8 A319 orders to 4 A318 orders and 4 A320 orders last year.

 Smile
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F9Animal
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sun Oct 28, 2007 1:13 am

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 39):

I swore I could have remembered a conversation with someone, I think it was F9Animal or Mariner or someone else that F9 could be phasing out the 18's in favor of the 20's and retaining the 19's. But then again, maybe I was just hallucinating.

It was not me!!!  Smile

Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 44):

Perhaps you are thinking of their conversion of 8 A319 orders to 4 A318 orders and 4 A320 orders last year.

Smile

That has to be it.
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mariner
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sun Oct 28, 2007 1:55 am

Quoting Lrdc9 (Reply 42):
With ATA leaving a slots created for an LCC, F9 might be able to get it's hands on the slots.

That possibility is certainly there. But they are "within perimeter" slots, so Frontier couldn't get them fror DEN, which is outside the perimeter.

Even if they did apply, there is no guarantee they would get them, of course, there is always a bunfight for DCA slots. For Frontier to have any chance at all, it would have to be from somewhere like MEM or MDW to even apply.

ATA couldn't make money on MDW-DCA, so let's assume Frontier might want MEM-DCA and got them - then, as PlanesNTrains notes, what would NWA do in retaliation? Would they do anything?

The bigger question is what Mr. Menke wants to do with MEM - will he expand it at all? I don't have any clues to his thinking on that.

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AirframeAS
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sun Oct 28, 2007 3:12 am

Quoting FRNT787 (Reply 44):
Perhaps you are thinking of their conversion of 8 A319 orders to 4 A318 orders and 4 A320 orders last year.

Yes, thats it! To quote: "Whoops, Pardon Me, My Bad!" ~Jack the Snowshoe Hare (N940FR)  bouncy 

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 45):
It was not me!!!  Wink

Yeah, yeah, yeah! I was looking for someone to blame!  Wink Now I can't blame Mariner! ROFL!
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denverdanny
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sun Oct 28, 2007 5:46 am

Is Frontier competing at LAX to Mexico? Maybe that would be a good place to evaluate service. Doesn't Alaska operate from there as well? I say drop out of California and go east, young man.
 
kingcavalier
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RE: Frontier - Excellent Quarter

Sun Oct 28, 2007 5:55 am

Quoting DenverDanny (Reply 48):
Is Frontier competing at LAX to Mexico?

They have a daily flight to SJD, but I'd like to see some more Mexico service from LAX (maybe CUU and GDL).
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