parapente
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Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 3:49 pm

Boeing are under serious threat not only in the VLA market but now also their 777 cash cow. Below is a link to a well writen article by a former Boeing employee and a NASA link where the BWB scale prototype can be seen flying. This former Boeing official argues cogently that Boeing need to develop this aircraft now if they are not to loose the "top end" of the aircraft market that they have enjoyed for so long.
I agree with the article,I know that many will not. Time will be the judge.

http://www.leeham.net/filelib/Rudy071007.pdf



http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/improvingflight/bwb_main.html
 
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Stitch
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 3:57 pm

The BWB will make a great freighter and will likely first see service in that role - most likely as a USAF "heavy lift" platform to replace the C-5M Galaxy.

If Boeing launches it as a passenger plane - and especially to compete with the A380 - I'm going to be buying EADS stock something fierce.

I do not know why Boeing thinks the market can support 1000 VLAs all of a sudden. I expect it's just marketing BS to try and make the market look so big that airlines feel they need both the A380-800 and the 747-8I, but so far airlines seem to be taking a much more cautious stance and buying only a small number of VLAs and making them all A380-800s.

Even if Boeing can definitively prove that a BWB would whip an A380-800 or -900 across the board in economics and do so in the double-digits, I do not believe they can do so within the next decade, which at that point enough airlines will have committed to the A380 and done so in enough quantity that they will "live with their decision". I just cannot see them - much less their stockholders - writing-off one 11-figure investment just to immediately commit themselves to another.
 
swallow
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 4:07 pm

The priority after the 787 program should be Y1. I do not see Boeing commiting the resources to build a BWB ahead of Y1 since the airlines have started pushing for a new generation single aisle plane. The VLA market is fragmenting anyway with the 388 the platform of choice for pax and the 748 for freight.

The next battle will be Y1 vs NSR when the engine technology is ready.
The grass is greener where you water it
 
JTR
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 4:10 pm

Before Boeing embarks on any more projects, they need to get the current ones in the pipeline finished. Once 787s are delivered and the 777F and 748 projects are winding down, then we can talk about Y1; Y3 is a long way off.
 
CHRISBA777ER
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 4:13 pm

Nobody has yet come up with a compelling solution to the problem of carrying pax in the wings of a BWB - how are you going to ensure you give them a smooth ride? Would I ride in the wings of a BWB? Yes but I would want four point harnesses and no hot drinks anywhere near me. The moment forces will make for a very unpleasant ride if things are anything other than flat calm - any bumps and you will be rising and falling several dozen feet. Might not be so bad if you are sat by a window, but if you arent? Puke bag central. I just do not see a way of solving that problem unless they plan to seat the pax down the centreline - no windows and rows 30 across?

A BWB that big will not be practical on current runways/taxiways/gates due to its collossal wingspan.
What do you mean you dont have any bourbon? Do you know how far it is to Houston? What kind of airline is this???
 
A520
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 4:33 pm

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 4):
Nobody has yet come up with a compelling solution to the problem of carrying pax in the wings of a BWB - how are you going to ensure you give them a smooth ride? Would I ride in the wings of a BWB?

My impression is that the transition between todays aircraft and BWB will not be a one step process but rather a gradual evolution. The wing roots will become longer and the wing thicker with time, while the tube will become "cigar-shaped" with a width limited to may be 3-aisles in the central part before increasing further.

In this way, evacuation solutions will be developed gradually as well. Parallely, flying trajectories will evolve to reduce steep angle change of direction, and passengers will get accustomed to fly further away form windows.
 
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Revelation
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 4:36 pm

Planes can turn while staying flat - it's called a skidding turn. I should know - I've done it often enough!  Smile It's just not very elegant nor as efficient as a banked turn. Who knows what ways can be invented to optimise a flat turn, especially with the degree of computer control available these days. Planes don't spend a huge amount of time in turning flight, and the places where turning is needed the most, takeoff and landing, are already done with the cabin secured.
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ikramerica
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 4:39 pm

Caling Boeing in trouble doesn't make the BWB any more practical as a passenger aircraft.

Further, the so-called 777 killers are 6-8 years away, and Boeing will have their own 77E replacement shipping by then in the 787-10. Similar to how the 739ER is enough to replace most 757 missions, the 787-10 will do the same for the 77E, which of course does leave room for a more capable smaller Y3 in the far future I suppose.

So what's the concern? That Boeing loses out on the VLA passenger market between now and 2016? Airbus will make zero dollars on VLAs during that period. Zero.

That Boeing will lose out of 77W sales? Possibly, but they've already said they will respond, and basically have until 2017 to deliver that plane. The A346 being first to market didn't really hurt 77W sales, after all.

The most pressing needs at Boeing are to get the 737RS on offer, the 787 flying, and the 748 built.

Getting some impractical BWB design into passenger service is not a pressing issue.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 4:41 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
- I'm going to be buying EADS stock something fierce.

..I wouldn't be too sure if I were you.. stirthepot ..maybe you can use your hard-earned money on other stocks instead... Wink Like Air Carriers  duck  liar ..

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
Even if Boeing can definitively prove that a BWB would whip an A380-800 or -900 across the board in economics and do so in the double-digits, I do not believe they can do so within the next decade, which at that point enough airlines will have committed to the A380 and done so in enough quantity that they will "live with their decision". I just cannot see them - much less their stockholders - writing-off one 11-figure investment just to immediately commit themselves to another.

..the article stated 30% better performance on fuel burn alone..that's huge...but I still think we'll be seeing a BWB freighter version first...

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 4):
Nobody has yet come up with a compelling solution to the problem of carrying pax in the wings of a BWB - how are you going to ensure you give them a smooth ride? Would I ride in the wings of a BWB? Yes but I would want four point harnesses and no hot drinks anywhere near me. The moment forces will make for a very unpleasant ride if things are anything other than flat calm - any bumps and you will be rising and falling several dozen feet. Might not be so bad if you are sat by a window, but if you arent? Puke bag central. I just do not see a way of solving that problem unless they plan to seat the pax down the centreline - no windows and rows 30 across?

...I know there was a good discussion regarding this particular problem in the "techops." section..you might want to try it there.

I
"Up the Irons!"
 
Tom12
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 4:45 pm

What is Y1??


Tom
"Per noctem volamus" - Royal Air Force Bomber Squadron IX
 
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Revelation
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 4:47 pm

Inspiration, move me brightly! Light the song with sense and color.
Hold away despair, more than this I will not ask.
Faced with mysteries dark and vast, statements just seem vain at last.
Some rise, some fall, some climb, to get to Terrapin!
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 5:17 pm

Reading the article, the author makes a serious misstatement of historical fact in saying that the air force made a large order of KC-135's in 1954. At that time the order was for 25 and Boeing was told in no uncertain terms that those would be the only ones Boeing would ever sell, as Lockheed had won the competition. It wasn't until years later, when Lockheed dropped the ball, that the large order was realized.
As to the prospects for the A380, I do agree that Boeing will answer it eventually, but it should by no means be their top priority. They have the 748 to keep Airbus honest on pricing, even if they never sell another pax model (which I believe they will, although not a lot of them.) The 748F will make the line profitable, and the A380 will not make any money unless the market changes drastically. Things can and do change, and if demand for VLA's picks up Boeing will most likely deal with it; but I do not believe that they should right now.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
planemaker
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 6:24 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
I do not know why Boeing thinks the market can support 1000 VLAs all of a sudden. I expect it's just marketing BS to try and make the market look so big that airlines feel they need both the A380-800 and the 747-8I, but so far airlines seem to be taking a much more cautious stance and buying only a small number of VLAs and making them all A380-800s.

I think that the simple answer is that after failing to launch the "old" 747-500, 600 & 700 (concept), Boeing had nothing to go head-to-head against the A380 and therefore chose to frame the market battle into a "P2P" vs "H2H" contest... all the while knowing full well that demand in the VLA category would be real. As the ex-Boeing salesman says...

"Continuing claims by Boeing management about the much better prospects for the 787
vs. the A380, such as those made recently in Bangkok by the Boeing VP of Marketing,
Randy Tinseth, I believe, do not reflect reality and may well do more harm than good to
Boeing's reputation than necessary, because the two aircraft were developed for totally
different markets
.


In addition to the 3 points that the gentleman raises regarding "reversing the trend," he fails to mention the single point that will drastically "reverse the trend" in relatively short order... consolidation - not just in the USA but across borders.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
flysherwood
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 7:08 pm

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 12):
Boeing had nothing to go head-to-head against the A380 and therefore chose to frame the market battle into a "P2P" vs "H2H" contest... all the while knowing full well that demand in the VLA category would be real. As the ex-Boeing salesman says...

The A380 has sold less than 200 units 7 years after its launch. Airbus has stopped trying to determine at what point break-even on the program is going to happen. It is believed to be close to 500 units for that to happen. In the meantime, Boeing has sold 760 of the 787's 1 year before EIS. Who do you think made the right decision?  Yeah sure
 
roseflyer
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 7:16 pm

The article makes some good points and is rather truthful even though it doesn't have any sources or references.

My biggest problem is that the paper is concerned on leading in sales. But it is not concerned about profits. Ok, yes Boeing could build a plane that would trounce the A380, but is it economically feasible? Yes it probably would sell, but the development costs of a blended wing body design are astronomical. Could the costs ever be recovered? I want to see that article take on the financia aspect before I will believe that Boeing needs to build a BWB design. Sure Boeing could win a market, but if it costs the company its solvency, then its not worth it.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
ikramerica
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 7:28 pm

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 13):
The A380 has sold less than 200 units 7 years after its launch. Airbus has stopped trying to determine at what point break-even on the program is going to happen. It is believed to be close to 500 units for that to happen. In the meantime, Boeing has sold 760 of the 787's 1 year before EIS. Who do you think made the right decision?

Airbus did! Because they have the biggest plane, and bigger wins. Always. Big grin

All Boeing has done with the 748 is steal the VLA Freighter market right back from Airbus (well, the 777F helped too). Since a large number of the 1000 VLAs over 20 years are going to be F's, sounds like a cost effective plan. And the 748I, though not selling in high numbers, will have orders trickle in eventually (A380 line sells out, 744s get old, what do second tier airlines do then?). Not sure if it's cost effective, but I would assume it will eventually break even. And of course, it does keep A380 margins down, which is one reason the break even keeps going north. If margins were good, it would have stabilized in the 420-450 range.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
pnwtraveler
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 8:11 pm

The sonic cruiser isn't dead just because it was before its time. The extra efficency and speed may come about if the projected growth in aviation continues and oil costs continue to escalate.
 
XT6Wagon
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 9:03 pm

Quoting Pnwtraveler (Reply 16):
The sonic cruiser isn't dead

This part is correct, Its not DEAD, its just not actively being developed. Boeing has been reported to still have a small staff keeping at investigating emerging technologies, and to keep running numbers on Speed Vs Cost.

Its a shame that so many look at the fuel burn of the Sonic Cruiser and cry "It would NEVER WORK". Yah the fuel burn per hour was high, but given that it cuts hours and hours off the competitions slow as 3 legged sloths A340 and A330, the overall trip fuel burn wasn't unreasonable. Coupled with the massive savings in every other cost an airline sees when operating a flight, from capital, to crew costs, in the days of $30 a barrel oil it was hands down cheaper to run than the 787, much less the "old" planes it would compete with in the market place.

Of course, Premium travel tanked with recession taking the bottom of that market away at the same time the high end was getting murdered by private jets and fractional jets. Fuel prices doubled. Risk in the industry went from "high" to "insane", which is why the sonic cruiser was placed in holding for a conventional low risk plane that is hands down better than the old stuff in ANY market, not just the good ones. Or in the ones where fuel costs were a foot note compared to capital and crew costs.
 
EMBQA
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 9:19 pm

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 13):
The A380 has sold less than 200 units 7 years after its launch.

Who do you think made the right decision?

Watch yourself.. I got banned for 2 weeks for saying something just like that last year...
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
 
planemaker
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 9:28 pm

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 18):
Watch yourself.. I got banned for 2 weeks for saying something just like that last year...

He shouldn't get banned but on the one hand his post is "flame bait" as it has absolutely nothing to do with my post that he is supposedly responding to, and on the other hand makes his post on its own makes no sense.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
flysherwood
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 9:49 pm

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 19):
He shouldn't get banned but on the one hand his post is "flame bait" as it has absolutely nothing to do with my post that he is supposedly responding to, and on the other hand makes his post on its own makes no sense.

How so? I responded to your comment about the P2P vs. H2H. You did say Boeing had nothing to respond to the A380, didn't you? And how is it flame bait when I am stating the truth of the situation?
 
EMBQA
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 9:51 pm

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 19):
He shouldn't get banned but on the one hand his post is "flame bait" as it has absolutely nothing to do with my post that he is supposedly responding to, and on the other hand makes his post on its own makes no sense.

I disagree.. The first post comments that Boeing needs to develop a VLA soon, or loose its market edge. Boeing years ago looked into this with the 747-500 (as you noted) and saw no market. Flysherwood just commented on what looks to be true so far, after nearly 7 years of sales the total for the A380 is only 169. Far below the break even numbers.. far below expectations, below what could be called a sucess and as for right now, Boeing looks to have made the right choice.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
 
FLALEFTY
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 11:25 pm

If Boeing takes their time and makes certain that the 787 is "right", they will have a "cash cow" that will rival the 777 and the 73NG for many years to come.

It will be a game changer.

The A380 is the new "queen of the skies" and will sell well now that it is finally in service. I see another 1,000 sales over the next decade.

The 748i is simply an extension of the 748f program, just a way to find an additional 100 ships to ease their way past "break even".

But the real "cash cow" battle is the successors to the 73NG and A32X narrow bodies.
 
David_itl
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 11:25 pm

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 21):
Far below the break even numbers.. far below expectations

Why do people assume that Airbus would sell even the original break even figure of 270 prior to entry into service? 169 orders now with 20 or so more to be firmed up makes it around 190 sold in 7 years i.e. 27 a year. Even if they only garner 15 A380 sales for 15 years would mean a minium production run of 415 units. The fact that the only cancellations have been induced by Airbus not willing to develop a freighter at this time, and deferral by other airlines until such times as either their network or hub airport is sufficiently developed for it suggests that the looks to be an aircraft for the short to medium term, with several repeat orders already from some launch customers, and with the "green issues" coming into play, even the long-term as some tree-huggers may perfer to see 3 "smaller" aircraft be replaced by 1 A380-900, even on routes which frequency ought to be the determing factor on a routes success.
 
albird87
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 11:40 pm

When u say Boeing need to be bold.... would an all composite aircraft (or mostly all composite!) be being bold?? I mean the 787 i think is a first in this area (please tell me if im wrong- the area would be in commercial transport also.)
You also have to remember that Boeings mission statement is not the same as Airbus.

I do beleive that Boeings idea is to fly point to point so that people can travel without having to stop- ala 787... 767 replacement but also has the range to open up a lot of routes that would of been too expensive to use a large aircraft which would be needed for the range.
Airbus have the idea of Hub to Hub travel.... So do to this you want to move as much as possible- hence the A380. the A380 can move masses and then people can connect on using feeder aircraft (such as the A320 family)

Both companies have completely different ideas... however that does not mean that they will also try and pinch sales from each other....
My own thoughts here is actually Airbus wanted to prove that they could make a complete double decker aircraft that could compete squarely in the face of the 744 and be better!! They have suceeded with this in the A380... Will we see Boeing make a bigger, better aircraft??? I dont think so but i would expect that there will be a new VLA from boeing maybe in the next decade but lets get the projects in the hangars and drawingboards off into the air before they tackle this...
 
SkyyMaster
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Fri Nov 02, 2007 11:56 pm

I will probably be flamed for being one of those "tree huggers", but IMO, A & B ought to at least be giving some semblance of research into alternative fuel sources to go along with the next generation of aircraft. I've seen people on here say there is an infinite amount of oil in the earth, and I flat out don't buy that. Even if true, oil prices are not likely to go anywhere they were a couple of years ago, only higher. I think Boeing's 787 sales speak for themselves and their future. I just think everyone needs to be looking to the generation after that.
 
D328
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 12:14 am

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 22):
The A380 is the new "queen of the skies"

A380 is not ane will never be the new Queen, the B747 will always be the Queen of the skies.
 
EMBQA
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 12:30 am

Quoting David_itl (Reply 23):
Why do people assume that Airbus would sell even the original break even figure of 270 prior to entry into service?

Because most people can add.

Let's say I'm a company and I'm going to produce a thing called the 'Widget'. It will take me several years to design and build the 'Widget'. After cost over runs, delays and many other things associated with building the 'Widget' it comes time to actually start handing out my 'Widget' to the customers that ordered it. I'm going to be a little worried if I've only sold about 25-30% of the units required to cover the cost of design. Even more so that I now have a finished product that is out in the field for the customers to actually see.... and trust me, I'm smart enough to know orders will not start pouring in, just because its out in the real world
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
 
jacobin777
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 12:30 am

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 12):
I think that the simple answer is that after failing to launch the "old" 747-500, 600 & 700 (concept), Boeing had nothing to go head-to-head against the A380 and therefore chose to frame the market battle into a "P2P" vs "H2H" contest... all the while knowing full well that demand in the VLA category would be real. As the ex-Boeing salesman says...

Your right..its probably impossible for Boeing to have built an "A380-esque plane....I guess Boeing doesn't really have any experience in the VLA department..  mischievous 

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 18):
Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 13):
The A380 has sold less than 200 units 7 years after its launch.

Who do you think made the right decision?

Watch yourself.. I got banned for 2 weeks for saying something just like that last year...

..nothing wrong in speaking the truth... Wink

Quoting FLALEFTY (Reply 22):
The A380 is the new "queen of the skies" and will sell well now that it is finally in service. I see another 1,000 sales over the next decade.

..wow..you are even more optimistic than Leahy..maybe he can hire you as his protoge...  smirk 
"Up the Irons!"
 
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Stitch
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 12:45 am

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 21):
The first post comments that Boeing needs to develop a VLA soon, or loose its market edge. Boeing years ago looked into this with the 747-500 (as you noted) and saw no market.

Not entirely true. The 747-500 and 747-600 did have interest from the Asian carriers, however when the "Asian Financial Flu" set in, those carriers no longer had money to buy new planes and the development cost - in mid-1990's dollars, no less - was looking to push upwards of $12 billion. There was really no way Boeing could fund that without a few score, minimum, in hard orders backed by serious hard dollars.

The 747-X and 747-X Stretch were indeed "mild refreshes" by Boeing, significantly cheaper to produce ($3-4 billion in early 2000 dollars), to see if there was any traction for a larger 747 against the A3XX/A380. Nobody bit at first, but when 9/11 imploded TATL traffic between the EU and NA, LH worried about filling their A388s and started to nudge Boeing into building the 747-X. However, traffic recovered within a couple of years and LH decided that they were "safe" with the A388.

Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 25):
I will probably be flamed for being one of those "tree huggers", but IMO, A & B ought to at least be giving some semblance of research into alternative fuel sources to go along with the next generation of aircraft.

One nice thing about jet turbines is they'll burn darn near anything combustible. So as fuel sources change, the jet turbine should adapt, though efficiency and performance may take a hit.
 
rwessel
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 12:55 am

Quoting Revelation (Reply 6):
Planes can turn while staying flat - it's called a skidding turn. I should know - I've done it often enough!

Ugh. That'll just make things worse. Instead of a gentle transient vertical motion, you'll subject the passengers to a sustained horizontal acceleration? IOW, like when a car turns and you're thrown to the side?

A skidding turn is unlikely to be a solution for anything. Just limit the aircraft to sufficiently low roll accelerations, roll rates and/or bank angles* in all but exceptional situations, and you're done.

Any turbulence induced rolling motions ought to be significantly reducible with stability augmentation, and pitch and yaw transients won't be any worse than they are now (actually less, since the passenger compartment will be shorter).

Although frankly, I think the whole airsickness "problem" for BWBs is grossly exaggerated, since any passenger compartment on any reasonably sized BWB will still be fairly narrow. Besides, while a wider cabin would certainly contribute something to the problem, it's not at all clear what the parameters are. After all, we don't see higher incidents of airsickness in the outboard seats of 747s than in MD-80s. And we ought to at least see *some*, after all we're talking doubled forces, accelerations, rates, whatever on the 747.

IMO, this is likely to be a complete non-issue at least up to 15-18 seats wide, and is unlikely to require anything beyond some minor maneuvering limits and stability augmentation up to the 25-30 wide range. And, IMO, I think those are seriously conservative estimate.

The real problem is whether or not there’s a sufficient market for an aircraft of that size.


*It's unclear to me which of those three, or combination thereof, is the biggest contributor to airsickness.
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:07 am

Quoting Parapente (Thread starter):
Boeing are under serious threat not only in the VLA market but now also their 777 cash cow. Below is a link to a well writen article by a former Boeing employee and a NASA link where the BWB scale prototype can be seen flying. This former Boeing official argues cogently that Boeing need to develop this aircraft now if they are not to loose the "top end" of the aircraft market that they have enjoyed for so long.

They're under some threat in the passenger VLA market, although the size of that market is quite small compared to the midsize widebody so, from a business point of view, it's not that huge a deal. They're doing just fine in the freighter VLA market.

The 777 "cash cow" won't be under any threat for 6-8 years, as previously pointed out, and will likely be upgraded or replaced to make it more competitive by the time the A350XWB enters service so, again, a challenge but a manageable one.

The BWB is not the fix for the next one or two passenger jets.

Quoting CHRISBA777ER (Reply 4):
Nobody has yet come up with a compelling solution to the problem of carrying pax in the wings of a BWB - how are you going to ensure you give them a smooth ride? Would I ride in the wings of a BWB? Yes but I would want four point harnesses and no hot drinks anywhere near me. The moment forces will make for a very unpleasant ride if things are anything other than flat calm - any bumps and you will be rising and falling several dozen feet.

The ride in the wings of a BWB due to turbulence (I assume that's what you mean by "bumps") shouldn't be any worse than the center of a BWB (or the cabin of a conventional configuration). A BWB wing would be far stiffer than a conventional wing so the vertical motion would be largely the same for the whole structure. The more significant concern is what happens during roll when the vertical motion is quite large (but zero relative to the cabin). Motion sickness needs some thinking.

Quoting A520 (Reply 5):

My impression is that the transition between todays aircraft and BWB will not be a one step process but rather a gradual evolution. The wing roots will become longer and the wing thicker with time, while the tube will become "cigar-shaped" with a width limited to may be 3-aisles in the central part before increasing further.

I'm not sure this would work. The current conventional configuration is extremely highly tuned...a "mid-way" design between conventional and BWB is very likely to be less efficient than either endpoint. The benefits of a BWB come about precisely because it's a totally different configuration.

Quoting Pnwtraveler (Reply 16):
The sonic cruiser isn't dead just because it was before its time. The extra efficency and speed may come about if the projected growth in aviation continues and oil costs continue to escalate.

The Sonic Cruiser's extra efficiency was relative to its peers of the day, and it used all all the efficiency gain by going faster...compared to a 787/A350XWB it would be significantly less efficient. Rising oil costs will hurt the Sonic Cruiser, not help it.

Quoting SkyyMaster (Reply 25):
I will probably be flamed for being one of those "tree huggers", but IMO, A & B ought to at least be giving some semblance of research into alternative fuel sources to go along with the next generation of aircraft.

They're both doing quite a lot of research on that front, although it's much more on the engine companies than on A & B. They decide what kinds of fuel you can put in the airplane, not Boeing and Airbus.

Tom.
 
planemaker
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:02 am

Quoting Flysherwood (Reply 20):
How so? I responded to your comment about the P2P vs. H2H. You did say Boeing had nothing to respond to the A380, didn't you? And how is it flame bait when I am stating the truth of the situation?

If you truly think that the 787 is a response to the A380 than you know very little about commercial aviation. If that is the case, then your post was not flame bait, otherwise it was.

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 21):
I disagree.. The first post comments that Boeing needs to develop a VLA soon, or loose its market edge. Boeing years ago looked into this with the 747-500 (as you noted) and saw no market. Flysherwood just commented on what looks to be true so far, after nearly 7 years of sales the total for the A380 is only 169. Far below the break even numbers.. far below expectations, below what could be called a sucess and as for right now, Boeing looks to have made the right choice.

Thank you David_itl and Stitch for responding to the above.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
mestrugo
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 8:12 am

Quoting D328 (Reply 26):
A380 is not ane will never be the new Queen, the B747 will always be the Queen of the skies.

Say WHAT!? The Connie is the real queen of the skies, sonny!
 
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scbriml
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 11:03 am

Quoting D328 (Reply 26):
A380 is not ane will never be the new Queen, the B747 will always be the Queen of the skies.

Well, the airlines, press and general public would tend to disagree with you.

The A380 will be called the new queen of the skies by many outside the aviation industry (even by some inside!)
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 11:08 am

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 34):
The A380 will be called the new queen of the skies by many outside the aviation industry (even by some inside!)

That's not the correct definition of it, though, so those people would be wrong. The 747 will always be the true "Queen of the Skies". Just because a new model comes along doesn't mean the newer plane can steal that moniker away from the 747. Based on what? Size? Give me a break.
 
ebj1248650
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 1:58 pm

Isn't it too soon to be even suggesting Airbus's A380 won't hit the break even point? Boeing didn't think the 747 would sell more than 600 units over the life of its production run, but look what's happened. We're only now beginning to see what the A380 will do in service and to get our first glimpse of passenger reaction. Time will tell whether Airbus made a good move, but for now it seems to be too soon to judge.
Dare to dream; dream big!
 
abba
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 2:32 pm

Quoting JTR (Reply 3):
Once 787s are delivered and the 777F and 748 projects are winding down, then we can talk about Y1; Y3 is a long way off.

- and before that Boeing needs to develop the 7810 and 7811.
 
Buddys747
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 2:38 pm

Quoting Albird87 (Reply 24):
My own thoughts here is actually Airbus wanted to prove that they could make a complete double decker aircraft that could compete squarely in the face of the 744 and be better!! They have suceeded with this in the A380...

It's a totally new aircraft compared to the 744, no wonder. You buy a brand new car, it's going to be better economics than one that's 15+ years old.

Time will only tell if the A380 will be successful and the airlines can fill the planes. The 747 was (and you could say still is) successful but over the years many carriers have been going smaller aircraft, so I doubt we will ever see the A380 in large numbers, hence previous quotes the 747 will still be the queen of the skies.
 
EMBQA
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:04 pm

Quoting Planemaker (Reply 32):

If you truly think that the 787 is a response to the A380 than you know very little about commercial aviation.

Then tell us why it can't be...??? and size can not be used as a factor
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
 
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scbriml
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:21 pm

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 35):
That's not the correct definition of it, though, so those people would be wrong.

There's no right or wrong about it. The airlines, the press and the public do and will call the A380 the new queen of the skies. You just need to get over it.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:27 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 40):
The airlines, the press and the public do and will call the A380 the new queen of the skies. You just need to get over it.

I don't have anything to get over my friend. You can't have two "Queen of the Skies". You just can't. I'm sure a new nickname can be bestowed upon the 380 without much difficulty. Maybe "Princess of the Skies" will be more fitting since she is the newer plane?
 
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scbriml
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:43 pm

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 41):
You can't have two "Queen of the Skies".

There's the old one, and now, a new one. Every Queen in history has a successor. wink 

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 41):
Maybe "Princess of the Skies" will be more fitting since she is the newer plane?

Good luck trying to convince the airlines, the press and the public on that one my friend. wave 

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/336825_a38026.html

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d95661c8-7e9e-11dc-8fac-0000779fd2ac.html

http://images.businessweek.com/ss/07...10/1015_singaporeA380/index_01.htm

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...0,682956.story?coll=la-home-center
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:47 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 42):
Good luck trying to convince the airlines, the press and the public on that one my friend

Oh I know. I've seen the press. Just another reason why the media generally doesn't know what they are talking about.  Wink

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 42):
Every Queen in history has a successor

Perhaps "Queen of the Skies 2" is more fitting. It can't be called the "New Queen of the Skies" because the 747 hasn't gone anywhere.
 
EMBQA
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:49 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 42):
Every Queen in history has a successor

...and when the last 'Queen' goes to Marana for storage, it will be a Northwest DC-9 crew flying them home.
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
 
planemaker
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:00 pm

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 39):
Then tell us why it can't be...??? and size can not be used as a factor

It should be very obvious to someone with more than a passing interest in commercial aviation. And, furthermore, to say that "size cannot be used as a factor" is obviously illogical when there is a range of 737s, 777s and a new 747 in the same lineup as the three 787s. But more pertinent to both your's and Flysherwood's posts... both of you have gone off on a tangent to my original response to this...

Quoting Stitch (Reply 1):
I do not know why Boeing thinks the market can support 1000 VLAs all of a sudden.


And my response to Stitch is not about the A380 vs the 787... which the two of you have carried on about.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
jacobin777
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:09 pm

How about "King of the Skies"? Nothing wrong with that (not even "derogatory" like many here on A.net believe "Whalejet" is)....as there will be new B747's flying around which will meet and great its larger flying companion - the A380 (and of course, the converse is true also)...makes sense to me...
"Up the Irons!"
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:10 pm

Quoting Rwessel (Reply 30):
Although frankly, I think the whole airsickness "problem" for BWBs is grossly exaggerated, since any passenger compartment on any reasonably sized BWB will still be fairly narrow. Besides, while a wider cabin would certainly contribute something to the problem, it's not at all clear what the parameters are. After all, we don't see higher incidents of airsickness in the outboard seats of 747s than in MD-80s. And we ought to at least see *some*, after all we're talking doubled forces, accelerations, rates, whatever on the 747.

It's not really double in a 747 because all of the rates are slower. Your body only picks up accelerations, not velocities. If you double the radius and you only need to drop the rotation rate by less than half to hold the same acceleration.

The major issue in a BWB is that (at least on some designs) the radius is *much* larger and, much more importantly, large portions of the cabin can't see a window and so they don't have a horizon reference. That is a recipe for motion sickness. Even in the center of a 747, most people can see part of a window.

Quoting EMBQA (Reply 39):
Quoting Planemaker (Reply 32):
If you truly think that the 787 is a response to the A380 than you know very little about commercial aviation.

Then tell us why it can't be...??? and size can not be used as a factor

What do you mean size can't be used as a factor? It *is* a factor. The 787 and the A380 are built for totally different missions, primarily because of their size, and there is no overlap between those missions. Therefore the 787 can't be a response to the A380 because they're targeting different markets.

Tom.
 
bravogolf
Posts: 359
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:27 pm

Quoting Mestrugo (Reply 33):
Say WHAT!? The Connie is the real queen of the skies, sonny!

Ditto He probably has never seen or heard Connie doing a low pass.

Why do a BWB? Get rid of the extra drag and go straight to a flying wing.
 
EMBQA
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RE: Time For Boeing To Be Bold

Sat Nov 03, 2007 5:29 pm

I'm just not going to go any further with this as we all have our own opinion on this subject and feel strongly about it. I guess time will tell. Will Boeing sell 1000 B787's before Airbus sells 200 A380's...? Will the A380 ever break even...? Will more A380 orders be canceled or will more come in..? None of have that crystal ball........
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"

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