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PVG-YUL In 2008-2009?

Fri Nov 02, 2007 7:15 pm

This morning, on Radio-Canada, I heard an interview of Montr�al's Mayor, G�rald Tremblay, who is in Shanghai with a trade delegation, and he told the reporter that, along with a representative of ADM (A�roports de Montr�al), they had a meeting at Shanghai Airlines, and they were looking to a direct liaison between Shanghai and Montr�al in 2008 or 2009.

Any chance of it happening for real?

I did a search and fond nothing about it.
"When I find out I was wrong, I change my mind. What do you do?" -attributed to John Maynard Keynes
 
sebring
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RE: PVG-YUL In 2008-2009?

Fri Nov 02, 2007 7:40 pm

Considering that there was a story recently about the Chinese allocating all new North American frequencies for 2008-09 without any designations for Montreal, I highly doubt it. Given the current state of relations between Canada and China, it also appears that there is little likelihood that China will soon confer on Canada designated tourism status which would be needed to really boost tourism numbers from China to Canada. So if I were a betting man, I'd bet against.
 
flyyul
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RE: PVG-YUL In 2008-2009?

Fri Nov 02, 2007 9:22 pm

Sebring,

Agreed 100%.. however, its coming from Gerald Tremblay, so there is some credibility to the rumour. I still dont buy it, and I would agree with your bet against it.
 
EXAAUADL
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RE: PVG-YUL In 2008-2009?

Fri Nov 02, 2007 9:31 pm

Is there a large Chinese population in YUL...does Shanghai Airlines code with AC so you could get conenction to say YHZ, YOW, even BOS, BDL?
 
sebring
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RE: PVG-YUL In 2008-2009?

Fri Nov 02, 2007 9:31 pm

Quoting Flyyul (Reply 2):

Agreed 100%.. however, its coming from Gerald Tremblay, so there is some credibility to the rumour. I still dont buy it, and I would agree with your bet against

They can pitch whatever they want, but the Chinese don't seem to have it on the radar for 08-09. Shanghai Airways doesn't even fly to Canada yet. It's only going to start codesharing with AC. At this point, they are behind other Chinese international carriers in exploring Canadian routes. It would seem more likely that they will work with AC a while, perhaps start a route to YVR or YYZ, before getting into an all-new market for Chinese airlines. I also imagine YYC has more allure right now than YUL. A better idea for Tremblay might be to go to Cote Vertu Ouest and check out their plans for China.

[Edited 2007-11-02 14:32:59]
 
sebring
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RE: PVG-YUL In 2008-2009?

Fri Nov 02, 2007 9:35 pm

Quoting EXAAUADL (Reply 3):
Is there a large Chinese population in YUL...does Shanghai Airlines code with AC so you could get conenction to say YHZ, YOW, even BOS, BDL?

There is a Chinese population, but nothing like the one in YYZ or YVR, and AC already offers people in YOW and YHZ good connections to China. Unless the Chinese tourism market really grows, and there is that obstacle that neither Canada nor the US are designated Chinese tourism destinations which greatly constrains the numbers, a YUL service seems far-fetched.
 
flyyul
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RE: PVG-YUL In 2008-2009?

Fri Nov 02, 2007 9:36 pm

Fair enough..

But my question is why would Tremblay make a categoric statement, saying that they are "close" to reaching a deal. That implies negotiation based on some solid grounds for feasibility of the service.

Im not saying your wrong, but is it possible that we are missing something?
 
sebring
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RE: PVG-YUL In 2008-2009?

Fri Nov 02, 2007 9:41 pm

How close is close and how categoric was he?

You know about close only counts in horseshoes.

Here are the 2008-09 route designations

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...1082&sid=ayKziNsynIMw&refer=canada


I'm also going to guess that with no 787s coming now until 2009, their 2008 expansion plans are already being pushed back, meaning it would be 2010 before they have enough planes to offer service to Canada.


[Edited 2007-11-02 14:48:15]

[Edited 2007-11-02 14:54:52]

[Edited 2007-11-02 14:55:44]
 
flyyul
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RE: PVG-YUL In 2008-2009?

Fri Nov 02, 2007 10:10 pm

Sebring,

My question then becomes, why did Tremblay make such a statement? Knowing what we know, is Shanghai being disingenuous?
 
sebring
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RE: PVG-YUL In 2008-2009?

Fri Nov 02, 2007 10:22 pm

Quoting FLYYUL (Reply 8):

My question then becomes, why did Tremblay make such a statement? Knowing what we know, is Shanghai being disingenuous?

Not having heard the comment, I can't interpret it except that when it comes to air services, politicians across Canada grasp at straws and make claims that don't pan out. Besides, since there is nothing firm or official, even good intentions can be expressed as "close" to be fact without risk of being called a liar if nothing materializes in that timeframe.
 
flyyul
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RE: PVG-YUL In 2008-2009?

Fri Nov 02, 2007 11:11 pm

Sebring, thxs.. I agree with your assesment
 
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yyz717
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RE: PVG-YUL In 2008-2009?

Sat Nov 03, 2007 4:31 am

Quoting FLYYUL (Reply 6):
But my question is why would Tremblay make a categoric statement, saying that they are "close" to reaching a deal. That implies negotiation based on some solid grounds for feasibility of the service.

It's called hype. Or spin. For the folks back home. Fueled perhaps by the giddiness of a Mayor running Canada's 4th largest city (as measured by airport traffic) while visiting China. He has to show something for the wasted tax dollars in sending him over there....a vague non-announcement about a smaller Chinese airline talking about adding YUL service helps.

There is no way a small independent Chinese airline will bet the farm on new service to a minor Cdn market that the larger Chinese carriers have so far shunned, not to mention AC. Not to mention that ULH aircraft would be needed for such a route. Not to mention about 100 other economic realities preventing this from happening any time soon.
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LH423
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RE: PVG-YUL In 2008-2009?

Sat Nov 03, 2007 3:25 pm

Quoting Sebring (Reply 9):
Not having heard the comment, I can't interpret it except that when it comes to air services, politicians across Canada grasp at straws and make claims that don't pan out.

Exactly. Mayors around the world do this all the time. Take a look at the big hoopla that the mayor of Boston stirred when Hainan announced that they had chosen BOS over a few other US cities, including Seattle. At the same time, cargo flights were announced. The cargo flights have started, Hainan on the other hand will be launching services to the US soon, most likely to SEA.

Fact is, mayors generally don't have the same grasp of airline lingo that we do. Therefore, when an airline announces that they have a certain city on their radar, that gets translated into "we plan on serving your fine city in the near future". Sometimes it happens, sometimes it doesn't. However, I'd see China service out of Montréal as being on the list, but not a priority.

Who knows though. Hopefully Shanghai will prove me wrong.

LH423
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RP TPA
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RE: PVG-YUL In 2008-2009?

Sun Nov 04, 2007 2:36 am

IMO, the closest we'll ever see a direct YUL-China flight will be if/when Canada and China ever come to some kind of agreement to end whatever is causing their latest hissy fit. AC could then start up their long-rumored service to Guangzhou, and use a 767-300 (or, at the rate this is taking, a 787) to fly YUL-YVR-CAN. Maybe it's not a non-stop, but technically it's a direct flight. AC often uses a widebody for the morning flights to YVR to feed their pacific flights, so this one might make sense. But I won't be holding my breath.