|Quoting Wolflair (Reply 12):|
Such a bid could trigger a bidding battle like Barclays vs. RBS consortium for ABN. Be sure that if BA goes for IB, LH would not sit tight without giving a battle.
As VV701 said, while there definitely are still hurdles to clear, this deal is essentially BA
's to lose. Because they already own 10% of Iberia, and have first right of refusal on a further (approximately) 30%, they already stand to almost control Iberia no questions asked, without any possibility of interference or "battle" from anyone. If BA
wants to control 39% of Iberia, they can tomorrow, without any difficulty. So, of course, they would have to fight for another 11% +1 share in order to gain full control of Iberia, and other bidders like perhaps AF
, other banking consortiums, etc. might well battle them for that. But again, as VV
said, those other bidders would have a very difficult time in gaining full control of Iberia when a single shareholder - BA
, hypothetically - would control nearly 2/5 of all the votes. With that amount of power, it wouldn't be too challenging for BA
to find another sizeable voting blog representing at least 11% +1 share of the remaining equity to go along with them.
Again, from my perspective: if BA
wants this deal (BA-IB merger) to happen, it will happen. Simple as that.