Flying-Tiger
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QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 12:09 pm

Summary:
- QF has placed staff in Seattle to monitor B787 progress
- has concerns about the delivery schedule
- could cope with the currently announced 6 months delay, everything above "not really pretty"
- in serious discussions with Airbus about large A350 XWB order
- Boeing not planning to firm specifications for next B787 in the next couple of years

All in all a very good read.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...qantasnov07,0,6637644.story?page=1
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scouseflyer
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 12:17 pm

Very interesting - it looks like the XWBs would be in addition to the 787s not to replace them - the info about the 787-10 is very interesting - this almost guarentees Airbus a clear run at the 777 / A340 replacement market for a couple of years.
 
jacobin777
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Orde

Wed Nov 07, 2007 12:24 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
- Boeing not planning to firm specifications for next B787 in the next couple of years

..you should have highlighted this also... Wink

"That said, we're working with all of [our airline customers]," she said. "We're very engaged with them, getting a feel for their needs and what they'd like with that airplane."

Which basically means we're not going to firm anything up yet, but if enough customers want something else, we'll try our best to get it done.

Not only that, firming up doesn't mean anything. The A350 won't be firm for a while, even though carriers have a very good idea of what they will be getting, in fact, carriers will be getting guarantees from the various manufacturers (both Boeing and Airbus).
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anstar
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 12:27 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 2):
Not only that, firming up doesn't mean anything. The A350 won't be firm for a while

True, but at least they are offering a larger capacity aircraft which some airlines (QF/EK) seem to want,

These 787-10 order's are Boeing's to lose (for the A350)
 
keesje
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 12:30 pm

Dixon praised the new Airbus model and sounded impatient with Boeing's reluctance to unveil firm specifications for a stretch version of the Dreamliner, tailored for the same niche.

"Everything points to it being an aircraft with enough size and range to be very important for not just us but quite a number of airlines," Dixon said of the A350.

Boeing doesn't plan to firm up design specifications for the next 787 model "for a couple of years," Leach said.


Boeing has a 800 aircraft backlog for the 787, (the fastest selling aircraft in history) and confidence the 777 can be upgraded with help from partner GE to be competitive for another 10 yrs.

So no hurry for Boeing to bring up a 787-10 and for GE to come up with a NG engine north of 85k lbs.

Of course there might be a price (QR, EK, BA, QF, CX..).

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Lumberton
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 12:43 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 4):
Of course there might be a price (QR, EK, BA, QF, CX..).

QR has already decided; EK will go with the A350XWB. The A350XWB was always going to win at EK, given the investment stake.

I agree with you on the others; they are in play for either.
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
 
WINGS
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 12:46 pm

Yet another 787 customer that is looking towards doing a 787/A350 combo.

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
- in serious discussions with Airbus about large A350 XWB order

Qantas has been in serious discussions with Airbus for a while now. Its good to get an update of the situation. While I don't expect anything to be ordered in 2007, I would expect early 2008 as an eventual date, especially as QF will look into securing early delivery slots for the A350-1000.

If Boeing fails to deliver the 787, within the new schedule, Qantas/Jetstar will be very happy to have committed to the additional A330 orders in 2006. I wonder if more A330's are part of their contingency plans?

Anyone know if Qantas has anymore options for the A330?

Regards,
Wings
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JoeCanuck
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 12:49 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
- Boeing not planning to firm specifications for next B787 in the next couple of years

I thought that the 350 specs weren't going to be finalized for at least another year as well.
What the...?
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 12:53 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 7):
I thought that the 350 specs weren't going to be finalized for at least another year as well.

True, design freeze will be next year IIRC. OTOH this info from Boeing indicates that they have decided to more or less put the B787-10 on ice for the time being (and to focus on bringing out the orderes -300, -800 and -900s) but to keep an eye on the market how this develops to be eventually ready to either bring out a B777NG or a B787-10.
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keesje
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:03 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 8):
to keep an eye on the market how this develops to be eventually ready to either bring out a B777NG or a B787-10.

and it looks like they shouldn't look for to long..

I think Boeing should be (and probably is already) making some strategic trade-offs. E.g. pull the plug on the 747-8i, 787-3, 763 and/or C-17 and inject the money, smart boys, girls and resources into the 787-9, 787-10, 777NG/Y3 and/or 737RS..

Airbus did so recently on the A380F, A350 and A306F.
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JoeCanuck
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:04 pm

I reckon there's a bit of cat and mouse going on between Boeing and Airbus, as there should be. Nobody is locking into real specs until the other guy does it first. By the time the carbon dust settles, it'll just be a larger, composite version of the 320/737 game; matching specs across the board.

So far, all the airlines have now are performance guarantees, and pretty optimistic ones at that. As a customer, you just can't lose. If the planes don't live up to the billing, you get the difference in cash. Sweet.
What the...?
 
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:10 pm

Seems like EK may have chosen the A350 over the B787-10 (if ever made firmly available by Boeing) and that without such a launch order (50-100 units), there is not going to be a B787-10 in the near future.
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Stitch
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Orde

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:11 pm

Honestly, I don't see where Boeing has a real choice here.

As noted, the 787 is the fastest-selling widebody in history and, even before the first one takes flight, is now the fourth most-popular widebody model ever (behind the 747, 767 and 777). While I am quite sure that Boeing would love it to be the third, second, or even the most-popular widebody model ever, the plain fact is that they have their hands full just building what they have already on order.

Frankly, Boeing can afford to let Airbus score 500 orders for the A350 by 2013. Why? Because they have already sold 1000 777s and should easily sell another 250 (minimum) by 2012.

I think Boeing suddenly launching a 787-10/787-11 would cause more worry then less. Boeing's focus right now needs to be to get the 787-3, 787-8 and 787-9 into the hands of those customers, not to spend resources on new models. Boeing also has to launch the 747-8 and 777F. Then, and only then, should Boeing launch the 787-10 and 787-11.

What would folks have said back in late 2006 if, after the second delay, Airbus announced the A380-800R, A380-900 and A380-900F? This forum - and the markets - would likely be in full-riot mode. Instead, Airbus canceled the A380-800F - even though it meant Boeing would score more 747-8F orders - and the A345E/A346E and put their nose to the grindstone and got MSN003 into SQ's hands within the newly revised timeframe.

I put to you that come mid-2008 if Boeing has announced and sold the 787-10/787-11, scored 200 orders for the pair, and is not ready to deliver LN0007 to NH their stock price will be substantially lower then not having the 787-10/787-11, facing an A350 with 400 orders, and not only having delivered LN0007 to NH, but also LN0008 and another score of planes to other customers.

Again, Boeing can wait. They will lose orders, yes, but there will be plenty more coming into play down the road. Airbus will reap the rewards of being early, but the situation in the 300-400 seat market is not as volatile as it was in the 200-300 seat market. Airbus is not going to score 1000 A350 orders in the next four years just because hundreds of 777s and A340s will be placed during that time, pushing back the need for replacements and expansion.
 
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Orde

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:14 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):

Why would they pull projects for which they have sales? They have a couple of billion dollars of 747i sales alone. Considering most of the R&D money for the F, model, the i is going to be mostly profit.

The 787-3 has a bunch of sales and isn't significantly different enough than the -8 to make a difference. The C-17 and 763 are pure profit at this point. If they really need the space, they can kill the 763 whenever they wish, though they it's worth a ton of cash if they win the tanker contract. The C-17 is almost done as it is.

I'm going to guess that Boeing and Airbus are both fairly aware of what is at stake for them and are acting accordingly.
What the...?
 
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Stitch
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:19 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 9):
I think Boeing should be (and probably is already) making some strategic trade-offs. E.g. pull the plug on the 747-8i, 787-3, 763 and/or C-17 and inject the money, smart boys, girls and resources into the 787-9, 787-10, 777NG/Y3 and/or 737RS..

I think Boeing is better off letting those programs continue and just delay bringing the 787HGW to market to concentrate on getting the 787LGW out the door and into customer's hands.

Airbus can only score so many orders by the 2013 EIS - I figure 500 is a nice round figure. Certainly Boeing would like those orders, but they should sell another 500 787s by then along with 250+ 777s.

The biggest selling aid for the 787HGW will be the 787LGW.
 
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Orde

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:21 pm

It would be silly for Boeing to firm up specifications for the 787-10 at this point, since the A350 specs aren't even firm for the base models. A lot can happen in two years, and Boeing has their hands full sorting out production problems on the 788, getting the 789 into production and both of them certified..
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keesje
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:26 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
The biggest selling aid for the 787HGW will be the 787LGW.



Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

hmm, long term you mean..
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baroque
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:28 pm

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 1):
Very interesting - it looks like the XWBs would be in addition to the 787s not to replace them - the info about the 787-10 is very interesting - this almost guarantees Airbus a clear run at the 777 / A340 replacement market for a couple of years.

It would be interesting to know how QF would use the two types IF it were to buy both. One possibility would be the 787 more to Jetstar and the 350 to Qantas, which would be an inversion of earlier practices. There always was a certain logic to the two types being complementary to some extent once the 350 became a 350XWB.

I will bet the factories are happy with all those customers breathing down their collective necks. Airbus might as well lay out the guest areas for the customers in advance of starting on the 350, they will be expecting to arrive in hordes.

Interesting article, pity Dicko does not care to let us know about all this back here where we are paying for it.  Wow!
 
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:31 pm

And intersting that QF in particular would be pushing Boeing to focus on another massive project while still trying to wrap its head around a project that is equally important to both Boeing AND Qantas. EK I can understand, they could give a rat's ass about delays on the 3,8 and 9 since they have none on order. Seems odd but I get the feeling that Boeing myst be saying to themselves "these airlines gave Airbus 5 years to study our new airplane and 3 re-writes to come up with a great airplane itself, and now we wnat the same luxury even if it costs us 200-300 orders in the -10 range." I figure they want to know exactly what they need to compete against before plunking down another $2-3B to do it. There are other airlines out there besides QF, QR and EK and we should all remember that those airlines that order both series will always be in play for the larger variants beyond firm orders. They will be playing the larger models off one another for options orders 5-7 years out in what I'd call the industry's first real "options wars". Up to now these options orders may have been contested here and there but not like we'll see in the future.
 
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Stitch
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Orde

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:31 pm

I think QF may be taking a page out of the EK playbook, frankly. By talking up the A350, they get a better price on those 50 787 options they're sitting on.

I have a feeling that just as we heard for years how EK is "almost ready" to buy the 747-8I, I think we might be hearing for years how QF is "almost ready" to buy the A350...  Wink
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Orde

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:41 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 16):

"Dixon, meanwhile, said Qantas is in "serious discussions" with Airbus for a large order of A350-XWBs, largely composite aircraft built to hold upward of 350 passengers. Qantas officials plan to visit Toulouse this fall for a detailed look at the new aircraft, which has been redesigned multiple times after customers complained that it didn't match the technical breakthroughs of the 787. They expect to decide on an aircraft next year, Dixon said."

That's not quite the same as "Prepares A350 order".

The vast majority of the -10/-11/-whatever R&D work is already done for the 787 and they're already constructing the majority of what will be common components of the future models. When they do decide, it should take considerably less time to get new models ramped up than if they were building a plane from scratch.

Qantas has the most 787 orders. If they order some 350's, too, that just makes things more interesting.

Considering we're talking delivery dates into mid next decade, it's all long term.
What the...?
 
swallow
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:48 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):
Again, Boeing can wait. They will lose orders, yes, but there will be plenty more coming into play down the road.

Good point. IIRC, this is a 2,500 airplane market and both OEMs will score lots of orders. None of them can meet demand all by themselves. I think the media put too much hype into 'an order for X is a loss for Y'. Both have their hands full with new airplane programs and have healthy backlogs previously unheard of in the industry. We need both to keep each other honest and the customers benefit from the competition.

My $ 0.02
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jacobin777
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:05 pm

Quoting ANstar (Reply 3):

True, but at least they are offering a larger capacity aircraft which some airlines (QF/EK) seem to want,

...Boeing has already stated they are ready to offer the B787-10.....it's only a matter of "if" and not "when".

Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):

I think Boeing suddenly launching a 787-10/787-11 would cause more worry then less. Boeing's focus right now needs to be to get the 787-3, 787-8 and 787-9 into the hands of those customers, not to spend resources on new models. Boeing also has to launch the 747-8 and 777F. Then, and only then, should Boeing launch the 787-10 and 787-11.

 checkmark 

Quoting Baroque (Reply 17):
It would be interesting to know how QF would use the two types IF it were to buy both. One possibility would be the 787 more to Jetstar and the 350 to Qantas, which would be an inversion of earlier practices. There always was a certain logic to the two types being complementary to some extent once the 350 became a 350XWB.

...I think it will be destination specific more than carrier specific.
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Stitch
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:16 pm

Let us look at the current A350 order book:

QR - They ordered the original A350 over the 787. Do we really think a 787-10 and 787-11 would have made them change their mind? I do not believe so. So that is not a "lost" order.

US - Same deal. No "lost" order there.

AY - Major Airbus operator now. I do not believe the 787-10 would have swayed them.

IT - By default they get A350s as part of their "Airbus Sampler Pack" order, so they would not have cared about the 787, period.

SQ - They have to replace planes on a pre-set schedule, so availability likely drove that decision. If Boeing had the 787-10, I believe they would have bought it, instead. So that is a "lost" order.

VN - Their order is for the A350-900 and they are a 787 customer, so here too is a "lost" opportunity for Boeing as I believe they would have taken the 787-10 if it was available.

EK - This one is hard. I do not believe that EK is wedded at the hip to Airbus. I believe that an available 787-10 might have swung the order to EK, but they do have a large Airbus fleet and the A333 was a better choice for interim lift for them then additional 77As, which would have given Airbus a solid foundation. Undecided.

If we take EK out of the equation, even if the 787-10 was available, at best, we'd be looking at 30 firm orders with SQ and VN. Meanwhile the A350 still would have secured a minimum of 133 orders from QR, US, AY and IT.

So I don't think not having the 787-10 right now has been a great blow to Boeing nor do I see it having been a serious competitor that would have stolen many scores of A350 orders.

EK is the big deal at the moment, but I also believe it is the only big deal left before 2010.

And I believe Boeing will have the 787-10/787HGW ready by 2010 in time for the next wave of major RFPs.
 
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:31 pm

Quoting Lumberton (Reply 5):
The A350XWB was always going to win at EK, given the investment stake.

Yeah, which is why they rejected the A350XNB out of hand.  Yeah sure

Theres no need for false excuses. If Boeing were building the better plane, Emirates would order it.

Why do you think they canceled the A340-600's and ordered the 777-300ER?
 
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:34 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 12):
I think Boeing suddenly launching a 787-10/787-11 would cause more worry then less.

 checkmark 

Quoting SEPilot (Reply 15):
It would be silly for Boeing to firm up specifications for the 787-10 at this point, since the A350 specs aren't even firm for the base models. A lot can happen in two years, and Boeing has their hands full sorting out production problems on the 788, getting the 789 into production and both of them certified..

I agree. It's just not in Boeing's interest to commit to new models when so many things can change in the next few years.

It's kind of interesting to me that nothing has changed in this situation, and a whole new thread has been spawned.

It also seems interesting to me how desparate airlines are to order products that will not see the light of day for five or more years. They must have some incentive to lock in the current prices and technologies.
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:36 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 23):
EK is the big deal at the moment, but I also believe it is the only big deal left before 2010.

Don't forget BA "Phase II" (probably next year).

I'm sure they'll be some others before 2010 as well.
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Flying-Tiger
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:45 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 25):
It also seems interesting to me how desparate airlines are to order products that will not see the light of day for five or more years. They must have some incentive to lock in the current prices and technologies.

Interesting observation. IMO financing plays the major part in here. At the moment here is so much money floating around that it is quite easy to convince investors to finance this or that new plane order. The next downturn wil come for certain - and try to convince somebody to lend you a lot of money when you are already writing losses. I get the feeling that the next downturn might be a very pronounced one.

Still, this has no longer to do with the original topic - Qantas commenting on the B787 and A350XWB. Would be nice if we can go back there.
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JoFMO
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:46 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 23):
EK is the big deal at the moment, but I also believe it is the only big deal left before 2010.

What about the big pending orders from BA and LH?
 
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:54 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 23):
EK is the big deal at the moment, but I also believe it is the only big deal left before 2010

What about AA? AA might be another big deal...
 
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:11 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 22):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 17):
It would be interesting to know how QF would use the two types IF it were to buy both. One possibility would be the 787 more to Jetstar and the 350 to Qantas, which would be an inversion of earlier practices. There always was a certain logic to the two types being complementary to some extent once the 350 became a 350XWB.

...I think it will be destination specific more than carrier specific.

It could be destination specific, but at this distance it is difficult to pick which routes are going to support the higher loads for the 350, presuming that and not range is the criterion.

It is also possible that one or the other might be made more comfortable in a QF configuration. The 787 as an 8 abreast, or the 350 as a nine, either might be more the QF style. But to make the 787 have greater comfort the 9 abreast would have to go. They also have to "fit" with the 380s - assuming they do arrive!
 
jacobin777
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:26 pm

Quoting Baroque (Reply 30):
It could be destination specific, but at this distance it is difficult to pick which routes are going to support the higher loads for the 350, presuming that and not range is the criterion.

..hence why I'm not making any predictions as to what QF/JQ would do if they got the A350s... Wink

Quoting Baroque (Reply 30):
But to make the 787 have greater comfort the 9 abreast would have to go.

....I agree on that....of course, one could pull and "EK" and offer 9-across but better seat pitch....
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Stitch
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:36 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 26):
Don't forget BA "Phase II" (probably next year).



Quoting JoFMO (Reply 28):
What about the big pending orders from BA and LH?

BA I think can wait. They still have plenty of 744s and those new 77Es to hold them over. I think they could push back the decision until 2009 at which time Boeing should have enough of a handle on the 787 production schedule to launch the 787-10/787HGW.

As for LH, I think that one is in the bank for Airbus. LH is moving to an all-Airbus fleet sans the one niche they need that Airbus cannot fill - 400-450 seats. That LH added more A346s makes me believe they are positioning themselves for an A350 order when the models are available. So I don't think the 787 has a chance there, even if the -10 and -11 were on offer.

Quoting PZ (Reply 29):
What about AA? AA might be another big deal...

The A350 is too big at the bottom (A358) and top (A359) for AA. As such, AA will buy the 787 and likely will start with a -8 and -9 order. They can wait for the -10 and get 77Es or 77Ls in the interim if they have to.
 
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Orde

Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:25 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
QF has placed staff in Seattle to monitor B787 progress

And the article says, "We monitor this in Toulouse and in Seattle all the time," Dixon told the Tribune

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
has concerns about the delivery schedule

"That shouldn't be read as the fact that we do think there will be delays," Dixon said. "But we would be remiss not to have contingencies."

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
could cope with the currently announced 6 months delay, everything above "not really pretty"

I didn't see what you quoted, I see "Six months we can deal with," said Dixon of the 787 delay announced by Boeing officials last month. "Anything longer will certainly make our life more difficult."

I suppose two people can read the same article and take away different things.
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:34 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 33):
Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
QF has placed staff in Seattle to monitor B787 progress

And the article says, "We monitor this in Toulouse and in Seattle all the time," Dixon told the Tribune

=>

Quote:
"Boeing has been quite open with us. They do appear confident that there will only be a six-month delay. But I'd be lying not to say that we have our concerns."



Quoting Revelation (Reply 33):
Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
could cope with the currently announced 6 months delay, everything above "not really pretty"

I didn't see what you quoted, I see "Six months we can deal with," said Dixon of the 787 delay announced by Boeing officials last month. "Anything longer will certainly make our life more difficult."

=>

Quote:
"Six months we can deal with," said Dixon of the 787 delay announced by Boeing officials last month. "Anything longer will certainly make our life more difficult."

In the end it comes down that Qantas has its concerns with the B787 schedule and has taken the precaution to move [extra] staff to Seattle to have a close look on the B787 progress.
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Orde

Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:41 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Reply 34):
In the end it comes down that Qantas has its concerns with the B787 schedule and has taken the precaution to move [extra] staff to Seattle to have a close look on the B787 progress.

Well doing so pushed the A380 forward, so I'm all for it on that angle for the 787 since she will come sooner, too. Big grin
 
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:41 pm

Quoting Keesje (Reply 4):
Dixon praised the new Airbus model and sounded impatient with Boeing's reluctance to unveil firm specifications for a stretch version of the Dreamliner, tailored for the same niche.

Once again, Dixon is on record as saying he wants the 787-10 to seat 350. That's "the same niche" and he's said it before.

Again, Dixon is stuck as he didn't order the 77W or 346 when he should have and now it doesn't make sense long term for his company to order either of those, and he wants to rectify it.

His impatience regarding the 787-10, considering the A350-1000 isn't coming until 2015 and is likely not available in bulk until 2016, is silly. Even if Boeing waits until 2009 to launch a 787-10, it'll still EIS before the A350-1000.

But if Dixon wants a 350 seat 787-10, that plane isn't coming any time soon, or ever, really.
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Orde

Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:49 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 36):
But if Dixon wants a 350 seat 787-10, that plane isn't coming any time soon, or ever, really.

 yes   checkmark 

So should QF surprise me and order the A350-1000, I can't blame Boeing because the only model that could meet that demand other then the 77W is the 787-11 and that plane cannot be built without significant improvements which will take time. So I can't really be upset at Boeing for losing that order, nor can I be disappointed at QF for doing it.

If QF orders the A350-900, then I'll still be surprised, but since the 787-10 could fill that role, I won't be upset at Boeing for losing that order because I feel they need to get QF their 787-8s and 787-9s, but I will be a bit disappointed at QF for noting they're worried about getting their 787-8s and 787-9s on time, yet telling Boeing they also have to get them 787-10s on an accelerated schedule, as well.
 
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:53 pm

It would nevertheless be reconforting to see some tangible evidence of the actually assembled aircraft and how their interior ,cockpit etc. looks like.
If the 787 is to fly in some months,there must be a nearly finished plane assembled by now.
When do first roll-tests start ?
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 7:12 pm

If Boeing is talking to airlines about their needs are they just talking about the 787-10, or are have they also opened the door for Y3?

While Y3 may seem a long way off Boeing is getting competition from the 350 and they may have decided that it is time to move on with Y3. A lot of the heavy costs associated with the move to composites have been met with the 787, which would help a lot financially. There is also the fact that EIS around 2015 - 2016 would make it competitive with the 350 now.

Looking at Y3, I don't see why Boeing can't start talking to the airlines about it, getting their reactions and moving forward based on those reactions. It also helps slow the 350 sales - just like when SQ was ready to be a launch customer for the 7E7 and Airbus told them to wait as there was something better on the way.
 
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 7:56 pm

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 39):
If Boeing is talking to airlines about their needs are they just talking about the 787-10, or are have they also opened the door for Y3?

They always talk about everything. Y3, 787-10, 777NG, Y1, 748.

I'm just not sure I understand the urgency of the A350-1000 order, considering it's 8 years off in terms of delivery. BA didn't see the urgency either, which is why they said they'd revisit that at a later date.
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 9:26 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 36):
Again, Dixon is stuck as he didn't order the 77W or 346 when he should have and now it doesn't make sense long term for his company to order either of those, and he wants to rectify it.

I agree but I still think if QF can get the B77W by 2009 Dixon & Co. would be flying the B77W 7-8 years before the A350-1000 ....direct competitor Virgin Australia (or whatever its going to be called) is getting their B77W's only next year.

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 40):
I'm just not sure I understand the urgency of the A350-1000 order, considering it's 8 years off in terms of delivery. BA didn't see the urgency either, which is why they said they'd revisit that at a later date.

......maybe he believes he won't be able to get earlier delivery slots so he's doing a bit of "saber-rattling".
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 9:30 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 36):
His impatience regarding the 787-10, considering the A350-1000 isn't coming until 2015 and is likely not available in bulk until 2016, is silly.

I think the 787-10, 777-200 and A350-900 are comparable. The A350-1000 is bigger approaching 777-300 capasity, a 787 competitor should be a further stretch.. Maybe Boeing should do the bigger 787-10 & --11 together incorporation strenghtened LDG, wings etc.
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 9:32 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 41):
I agree but I still think if QF can get the B77W by 2009 Dixon & Co. would be flying the B77W 7-8 years before the A350-1000 ....direct competitor Virgin Australia (or whatever its going to be called) is getting their B77W's only next year.

I agree. But they won't do it. It would make Dixon look like he was wrong in the past.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 41):
"saber-rattling".

I imagine there's pressure internally on him, as he's really done a crappy job the last 5 years all around. A cornered animal makes a lot of noise...
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 9:42 pm

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 7):
Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
- Boeing not planning to firm specifications for next B787 in the next couple of years

I thought that the 350 specs weren't going to be finalized for at least another year as well.



Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 10):
I reckon there's a bit of cat and mouse going on between Boeing and Airbus, as there should be

 thumbsup 
That's exactly how I read Boeing's actions at the moment. They're not going to rush into a new/development programme when a) they don't need to and b) they've enough going on already.

BTW, IIRC FINAL Design freeze for the A350 is scheduled for October 2008, if my memory serves me right..

Regards
 
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Orde

Wed Nov 07, 2007 9:44 pm

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 43):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 41):
I agree but I still think if QF can get the B77W by 2009 Dixon & Co. would be flying the B77W 7-8 years before the A350-1000 ....direct competitor Virgin Australia (or whatever its going to be called) is getting their B77W's only next year.

I agree. But they won't do it. It would make Dixon look like he was wrong in the past.

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 41):
"saber-rattling".

I imagine there's pressure internally on him, as he's really done a crappy job the last 5 years all around. A cornered animal makes a lot of noise...

He might have made a few bad decisions the past few years (of course not including the B787 purchase.. bigthumbsup  ) but the B77W is still gaining either new customers or "top-up" customers (such as AF)....I would see nothing wrong with it for QF to purchase the B77W right now for 2009-2010 deliveries.....

Trying to sell of QF was wrong also, if he was an honorable man, he would have stepped down after that catastrophe.  blockhead  Might as well bite the bullet....  gasp 
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:39 pm

THis really doesn't spell any type of disaster IMO for Boeing, because the A350 is not really what I would call the 787's rival, just as the A380 is not the 747's rival. It is quite clear that Boeing and Airbus have different beliefs about what the market needs, and are not trying necessarily to directly knock each other out of the sky.
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:52 pm

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 26):
Quoting Stitch (Reply 23):
EK is the big deal at the moment, but I also believe it is the only big deal left before 2010.

Don't forget BA "Phase II" (probably next year).

I'm sure they'll be some others before 2010 as well.

There are loads.

AF, KL, LH, Various Chinese, CX [possibly], UA etc, etc

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 40):
I'm just not sure I understand the urgency of the A350-1000 order, considering it's 8 years off in terms of delivery.

They need to get early slots.

Quoting Thrust (Reply 46):
THis really doesn't spell any type of disaster IMO for Boeing, because the A350 is not really what I would call the 787's rival

If they are not rivals I dont thow what are!

Quoting Thrust (Reply 46):
just as the A380 is not the 747's rival.

Than how do we explain all the articles entitles ''XXX airlines say that are evaluating the A380 against the 747-8''?
 
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Thu Nov 08, 2007 12:37 am

I don't understand Qantas not getting 777-300ER aircraft, the 744 are 20 years old and tired. There needs to be a plane between the A380 at 475 seats and the 787-9 with 300 seats. With JetStar getting 787-8 and Qantas taking 787-9 the fleet needs a plane smaller then the A380 and bigger then the 787-9. The 777 would allow for smaller west coast american or Canadian cities, a capitol to capitol airplane within Asia plus serve South Africa and Latin America. Sydney to JFK nonstop, both ways, could happen with a 773ER. That could open up DFW, Miami and ORD.
 
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RE: QF Prepares For B787 Delay, Prepares A350 Order

Thu Nov 08, 2007 12:48 am

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 48):
There needs to be a plane between the A380 at 475 seats and the 787-9 with 300 seats.

Which is why they like the A350-1000. The remaining jumbos can survive until 2016/2017.

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