Flying-Tiger
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Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:10 pm

Seems that the Groupo Marsans order has caught Iberia by surprise:

Quote:
Iberia Lineas Aereas de Espana SA said it will decide on whether to buy the superjumbo A380 Airbus or the 747-800 Boeing (NYSE:BA) by the end of 2008 or the beginning of 2009, chief financial officer Enrique Dupuy said.

Speaking during Investor Day, Dupuy said the planes will have more than 450 seats and the flag carrier would need at least 10 planes to optimise costs.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/...cles/newstex/AFX-0013-20799806.htm
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Stitch
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:14 pm

IB was one of the original customers Airbus expected to order the A380. Not sure they need something as big as the 747-8I, to say nothing of the A380, but if they do, then my money would be on the A380
 
adicool
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:22 pm

What routes could IB possibly be serving with the A380? The only that comes in mind would be MAD-EZE...
 
columba
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:25 pm

Quote:

Speaking during Investor Day, Dupuy said the planes will have more than 450 seats and the flag carrier would need at least 10 planes to optimise costs.

More than 450 seats wouldn´t that rule out the 747-8I ??

Quoting Adicool (Reply 2):
What routes could IB possibly be serving with the A380? The only that comes in mind would be MAD-EZE...

Read the article "The new fleet's routes would focus on Mexico and Buenos Aires and other destinations due to mature over the next four years."
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
wingman
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:40 pm

I'd say the 748 was ruled out the day Boeing was born. IB even suggesting it is pretty comical. Airbus knows it'll be free to charge full list and maybe even a mark-up just for Christmas.
 
albird87
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:44 pm

Quoting Adicool (Reply 2):
What routes could IB possibly be serving with the A380? The only that comes in mind would be MAD-EZE...

IB could also send them to MIA IMO. Maybe that would ruin AAs route but those flights always seem to be full. MEX would also be another good route for the A380.
Maybe JFK also and, if they fly to Asia, HKG or NRT?
 
mestrugo
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:46 pm

I suppose at least MAD-EZE, MAD-MEX , MAD-LAX and MAD-SCL could run with those new airplanes. The daily service to SCL is currently run with an A340-600 and it's almost always full, so I suppose they could use bigger planes, either the A380 or the B748i.

Whatever they choose, it will be welcome!
 
Norcal773
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:54 pm

IB order the 748? Phuliiiz! I'll believe it when I see it. AA must be looking at the A330 then!
If you're going through hell, keep going
 
scouseflyer
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:55 pm

They have been suggested, by several posters on this board, as possible destinations for the ILFC frames on a lease but this is the first time I've heard of them as buying customers.

Interesting, very very interesting!
 
Rj111
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 1:56 pm

Quoting Albird87 (Reply 5):
if they fly to Asia, HKG or NRT?

I would doubt it, they have a weak presence in the far east.

I would imagine GRU, MEX, EZE and SCL would be strong candidates. I can't see them ordering a lot of either type when they do choose.

Quoting Wingman (Reply 4):
I'd say the 748 was ruled out the day Boeing was born.

Well they didn't rule out the 727/757/747-2/3/4 and others the day Boeing was born.
 
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PM
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:09 pm

Gotta be honest. This is Airbus's to lose.
 
gabo787
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:15 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 3):
More than 450 seats wouldn´t that rule out the 747-8I ??

Well in Boeing website they claim that the 748 can carry 467 pax in 3.class configuration, and since IB only fly business and coach, I don't think that capacity could be an issue if they chose this plane.

I think that capacity wise the 748 fit's better in IB needs, the 380 is way to big for they route network right now, but......you never know.

just my 2 cents
 
EI321
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:27 pm

I did not think they would order the A380 so soon.
 
PRAirbus
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:32 pm

I knew it, it was a matter of time...Marsans' order has put IB on the spotlight...I guess the winner will be the A380. IB already has a vast Airbus fleet, to offer a competitive to mirror other European competitors the A380 would be the best choice. If BA ties the knot w/IB more synergies could be explored between the two being BA an A380 carrier as well. Sadly, I do admit the 747-8 would look awesome in IB's livery...too bad the 747-8 is not selling...I guess that model is doomed.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:34 pm

Quoting PRAirbus (Reply 13):
too bad the 747-8 is not selling...I guess that model is doomed.

I'm sure you probably meant the "B748I" is doomed... Wink
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trex8
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 2:49 pm

Quoting Wingman (Reply 4):
I'd say the 748 was ruled out the day Boeing was born.

I guess those were a funny version of the Trident and not 727s they operated for years then right?
 
PRAirbus
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:03 pm

Yes, I meant the 747-800...what a shame!
 
airbazar
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:22 pm

Quoting Norcal773 (Reply 7):
IB order the 748? Phuliiiz! I'll believe it when I see it. AA must be looking at the A330 then!

Well, they were a long, long time Boeing operator and operated the 747 until as recently as last year.
I think the 748 has as good a chance as the A380. The airline already has lots of experience operating the 747 and the A380 may be too much aircraft for IB. Cargo is a very important aspect of IB's operation to S.America and the A380 has horrible cargo capabilities in a pax configuration. Also in favor of the 748 is the fact that Boeing is desperate for new customers. they's already shown to EK that they will do anything to get new customers. They may give IB a deal they can't refuse.
 
WINGS
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:29 pm

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 17):
Boeing is desperate for new customers. they's already shown to EK that they will do anything to get new customers.

Boeing refused to build a shortened/longer range version of the 748i. How exactly is that convincing EK to order it?

Regards,
Wings
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na
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:30 pm

Indeed this is Airbus business to loose. But unless they want to" keep up with the Jonesses" the 748I should be big enough for IB. For what should they need 10 A380s? This will be a rather political thing then.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:32 pm

Quoting PRAirbus (Reply 16):
Yes, I meant the 747-800...what a shame!

...I'm sure you probably mean the "B747-8[i]" (Intercontinental) version and not the B747-8[/F] (freighter version)... Wink

I'm only giving you a hard time, don't take my comments seriously.... Smile  highfive 
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Stitch
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 3:40 pm

Quoting EI321 (Reply 12):
I did not think they would order the A380 so soon.

I think a number of airlines have run the numbers, and decided that the A380-800 is the only logical choice for a 20-year airframe. So I think airlines are placing their small initial orders now, even though they know they can't use the plane to maximum effectiveness now, but expecting that in six to seven years when they will start getting them, they will be able to.
 
panam92
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:10 pm

My money is on the A-380
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:14 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 21):
A380-800 is the only logical choice for a 20-year airframe.

How is it any more logical from an airframe standpoint than a 747-8? That really doesn't make any sense.
 
FCKC
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:23 pm

Stitch

Totally agree with your comment.

Why buying a plane (in the IB case 748I) which will be the perfect size TODAY and some years after , but will be too small in some years to COME ?
As airlines buy a plane for about 20 years , it is far more logical to order the bigger model now , even if it is not maximalised during only a few years , but still have a low economical cost.

I guess we have to thing about futur , and not now.

At IB my 2 cents are for the A380.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:26 pm

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 23):
How is it any more logical from an airframe standpoint than a 747-8? That really doesn't make any sense.

Off the top of my head...

  • Performance - It carries more stuff farther and more efficiently. And it will only get better (A388E/A388R).
  • Expansion - It offers 20% or more capacity. And it will only get better (A389).
  • Technology - It's based on 20 year old systems, not 40.
  • Future - It's the first model in the family, not the last.
 
columba
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:33 pm

Quoting FCKC (Reply 24):
As airlines buy a plane for about 20 years , it is far more logical to order the bigger model now , even if it is not maximalised during only a few years , but still have a low economical cost.

I doubt that, how is the saying, "an airline never went bankrupt flying too small aircraft". As an airline I don´t know how the market will develop in 20 years and what difficulties I will encounter (terrorism, war, bird flue etc..) and I don´t want to make a loss for the next ten years to maybe make some profit in 11 years.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:42 pm

Quoting PanAm92 (Reply 22):
My money is on the A-380

I didn't see anyone offer the possibility that IB might buy a mix of both; perhaps a larger number of 748i's but enough A380s to get them started using that airplane. This might prove to be something other than a winner-takes-all thing.
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B747forever
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:45 pm

I think that they wíll go for the A380. But isnt it the A380 to big for IB???
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Stitch
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:45 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 26):
As an airline I don´t know how the market will develop in 20 years and what difficulties I will encounter (terrorism, war, bird flue etc..) and I don´t want to make a loss for the next ten years to maybe make some profit in 11 years.

Pretty much every commercial airliner family out their has a multi-year delivery wait. Yet airlines continue to order them. Successful airlines have at least a better then wild-guess view of how they expect their future traffic patterns are going to pan out.

Also, you mitigate risk through prudent initial purchases. Every A380 customer started small. SQ and AF ordered 10. QF took 12. Even EK started with 5. LH was the "risk-taker" with an initial order of 15. Everyone else took between 2 and 6 at first.

I do not believe IB will take 10 in their first order. An initial order for 2-4 strikes me as both sensible and likely.
 
na
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:49 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 25):
Technology - It's based on 20 year old systems, not 40.

As much as I´m aware the 747-8Is engines (787 derivatives) are one generation ahead of the A380. And engines are not unimportant when it comes to judge an aircraft.
 
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:50 pm

Quoting EBJ1248650 (Reply 27):
I didn't see anyone offer the possibility that IB might buy a mix of both

Given the lowish numbers that IB would likely be interested in buying, a mixed fleet really wouldn't make much sense.

Evidence currently suggests the vast majority of airlines that are interested in the A380 are not interested in the 748I (with one notable exception*).


*Next week may reveal a second, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
A342
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:52 pm

Quoting Columba (Reply 26):
I doubt that, how is the saying, "an airline never went bankrupt flying too small aircraft".

Arguably, Independence Air went bankrupt because they did just that.
Exceptions confirm the rule.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 4:58 pm

Quoting NA (Reply 30):
As much as I´m aware the 747-8Is engines (787 derivatives) are one generation ahead of the A380. And engines are not unimportant when it comes to judge an aircraft.

A plane is more then it's engines.  Wink

And if Airbus does hang XWBs off the A388E, A388R and/or A389, then those engines will be a generation ahead of the GEnx motors hanging off the 747-8I.
 
FLVILLA
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:05 pm

As mentioned before if BA does get together with IB in the near term then that can only offer synergies with A380 fleets and so on, also I expect BA and IB to be in the market for the A350XWB at some point in the next 1-2years. Group Discount anyone ?  Wink
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Aisak
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:11 pm

Quoting Airbazar (Reply 17):
The airline already has lots of experience operating the 747 and the A380 may be too much aircraft for IB

The airline hasn't operated a 747 in years. Last two 747-400 flying IB colors were wet-leased from Air Atlanta (TF-AMA and AMB if memory serves me right). Also, how would you rate the experience operating an all Airbus fleet in the coming months?

Quoting B747forever (Reply 28):
But isnt it the A380 to big for IB???



Quoting Gabo787 (Reply 11):
I think that capacity wise the 748 fit's better in IB needs, the 380 is way to big for they route network right now, but......you never know.

A380 was way way way too big with IB flying the 319 MIA mini-hub and a dual hub at BCN, MAD.
A380 might be too big for 2007 network where most shorthaul planes are being focused on MAD and new services are being introduced to America. (BOS, IAD, increased frequencies to LatinAmerica...)
A380 will not be that big for the years to come, when IB has to replace some old 340-300, when all shorhaul routes will feed the MAD hub (only exceptions BCN to MXP, ORY, BRU and BCN-LHR JSA with BA), when IB will try long-haul flights out of BCN and when IB will expand MAD services to un(der)served LATAM destinations and new Asia destinations... Then, deploying the 380 on JFK, MIA, MEX, EZE or SCL runs could come in handy to free some 340s.
 
by188b
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:23 pm

So if IB order the A380, will that mean they use every Airbus fleet type currently in production?
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MAH4546
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:23 pm

Quoting Adicool (Reply 2):
What routes could IB possibly be serving with the A380? The only that comes in mind would be MAD-EZE...

Buenos Aires, Mexico City, and Miami.
a.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:25 pm

Quoting BY188B (Reply 36):
So if IB order the A380, will that mean they use every Airbus fleet type currently in production?

Per Wikipedia, IB does not operate the A318 nor any A330 model. They also do not operate the A345.
 
bogota
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:35 pm

Quoting MAH4546 (Reply 37):
Buenos Aires, Mexico City, and Miami.

BOG will be up to 10 weekly on IB A340-600 as of January so in a few years it might also be an A380 possibility.
 
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scbriml
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 5:35 pm

Quoting BY188B (Reply 36):
So if IB order the A380, will that mean they use every Airbus fleet type currently in production?

They only operate five of the ten models currently in production (eleven if you include the A332F). So, some way short.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
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LTU932
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 6:25 pm

IMO the only plane that would make better sense for IB is the 747-8I. It's not too big, but it's also not too small, and it can be used to complement the A346 on routes that definitely need more capacity, especially when demand rises in smaller South American and in Central American destinations, where the A380 may not be handable for one reason or the other (e.g. the runway isn't strong enough for a 500+ t heavy aircraft).
 
bmacleod
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 6:58 pm

Isn't Iberia nearly all Airbus? Looking at their market they really don't need anything bigger than A346s. If they were to decide between A380/748i, the A380 would win on fleet commonality....

[Edited 2007-11-07 11:10:38]
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gigneil
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 7:10 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
Seems that the Groupo Marsans order has caught Iberia by surprise:

Iberia isn't the only one.

Quoting Norcal773 (Reply 7):
AA must be looking at the A330 then!

According to Scott Hamilton and every other credible journo on the market, AA is in fact looking quite closely at the NSR and the A350.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 38):
Per Wikipedia, IB does not operate the A318 nor any A330 model. They also do not operate the A345.

They do have both the 318 and 330 on order, however.

NS
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 7:14 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 25):
Off the top of my head...



Performance - It carries more stuff farther and more efficiently. And it will only get better (A388E/A388R).

Expansion - It offers 20% or more capacity. And it will only get better (A389).

Technology - It's based on 20 year old systems, not 40.

Future - It's the first model in the family, not the last.

I'm not saying that IB will order 748's...in fact I think they will go 380...but there are a few items to consider here.

a) 747-8I will still be a very efficient aircraft. It will do its job well. Boeing tends to underpromise and overperform when it comes to such things.

b) Who's to say IB is interested in future stretches of the aircraft, or needs A380 capacity? A 3-class 748 would offer a pretty big upgrade in seats and cargo volume over their current largest a/c. Not every airline needs to go for the biggest, nor is it wise for every airline to do so.

c) 747-8 avionics/systems...based on an older design...so what? I never understood this argument. At AirTran there were no real complaints that the 717 was based on DC-9 avionics.

d) First or last model of the family doesn't really matter. 748 or 380 would both last a good 20 years + in airline service, and by that time, who knows what models will be on the market?
 
SCAT15F
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 7:38 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 33):
A plane is more then it's engines.

And if Airbus does hang XWBs off the A388E, A388R and/or A389, then those engines will be a generation ahead of the GEnx motors hanging off the 747-8I.

Sure, but Iberia will be buying the A380-800, not the E,R or 9, and the 748i is more efficient than the A380-800 as it stands right now, at least according to boeing.

Everybody on A.net is giving up on the 748i way too soon. This order is Boeing's to lose in my opinion.
 
gigneil
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 7:40 pm

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 44):
At AirTran there were no real complaints that the 717 was based on DC-9 avionics.

Say what now? Systems or avionics?

NS
 
WINGS
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 7:41 pm

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 43):

They do have both the 318 and 330 on order, however.

Iberia do not operate the A318, nor do they have any A318 on order. They did in fact place an order for the A318 in 2006, although it was quickly converted to the A319.

The also don't have any A330 on order. Recent rumours have suggested that they are close to placing an order, but in the mean time it seems that they will be leasing some frames, although I don't have a confirmation regarding this.

Regards,
Wings
Aviation Is A Passion.
 
mpdpilot
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RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 7:49 pm

Quoting FCKC (Reply 24):
Why buying a plane (in the IB case 748I) which will be the perfect size TODAY and some years after , but will be too small in some years to COME ?
As airlines buy a plane for about 20 years , it is far more logical to order the bigger model now , even if it is not maximalised during only a few years , but still have a low economical cost.

Well I can think of a good reason, you don't by something that looses you money today just because it is possible that it will get you money in the future. The 747-100 comes to mind. That aircraft was operated by a large number of American carriers in the past but it was too big and now they don't operate anything that big anymore. So that doesn't make it logical.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 25):
Off the top of my head...



Performance - It carries more stuff farther and more efficiently. And it will only get better (A388E/A388R).

Expansion - It offers 20% or more capacity. And it will only get better (A389).

Technology - It's based on 20 year old systems, not 40.

Future - It's the first model in the family, not the last.

For the sake of arguement,

Performance- The A380 may carry more passengers but to my knowledge it doesn't carry much more if any more cargo which to some airlines is important, Also we aren't talking about what the airframe could become, Boeing could very easily design a replacement for the 748i that would do just what the upgraded version of the A380 does.

Expansion- yes the A380 offers more capacity but is the extra capicity needed, I would look at AA for example they use 777's hardly the largest plane out there and I could think of numerous routes where they could even use more capacity in a single airplane but they still don't have anything bigger.

Technology- As far as I know the only thing that is going to remain the same one the 748i is the fuselage. The cockpit and the engines and all that stuff will be much more advanced. I will also say that regardless of the technology onboard if it is more economical who cares.

Future- does it really matter if you have the family to add on to. IB could buy the 748i today and in 20 years buy the next boeing jumbo, whats wrong with that, it is still another airplane that they have to buy. Judging by your comment about technology (which I disagree with) the A389 would be outdated and they should pick the new boeing then anyway.

I wouldn't say that the the A380 is the logical choice, I wouldn't say that of the 748i either. I would say that they both have merit. From what little I know about IB I would say that the 748i is a much better fit in their network for the near furture. Perhaps an A380's capacity could be used in the future but there isn't enough evidence to make a billion dollar decision based on that.
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MSYtristar
Posts: 7543
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:52 am

RE: Iberia To Decide On B748/A380

Wed Nov 07, 2007 7:55 pm

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 46):
Say what now? Systems or avionics?

I guess it would be systems. I'm slipping in my old age. I used to have really interesting chats with the pilots in regards to the similarities of the two airplanes.