Flying-Tiger
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United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 8:51 pm

Quote:
UAL Corp.'s United Airlines, the world's second-largest carrier, said it's asking Boeing Co. and Airbus SAS to develop a new narrowbody jet for its domestic fleet.

United wants ''the narrowbody equivalent'' of a Boeing 787 or an Airbus A350, so it's speaking with the planemakers about starting such a program, Chief Financial Officer Jake Brace said today at a Goldman, Sachs & Co. conference in New York.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...601103&sid=arObpOqlKP0c&refer=news

The next carrier pushing for it - but IMO it will take some time until we will really see something on this front from both Airbus and Boeing.
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4everRC
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 8:55 pm

IMO, A and B will start considering this when 737s and A320s stop selling, or at least slows down
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gigneil
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 9:02 pm

Both Uni-ted and Air France can push all they want... but the reality is that the many many lovely things about the 787 don't scale down all that well. The major benefit will have to come from the engines, and neither vendor is ready.

United is right, however. They have one metric fuckton of 737s to retire and some reasonably old A320s and some of the first A319s. It doesn't make sense to do a big investment in the A320 right now if the NSR is around the bend, because they'd need to act on pretty much 100 airplanes.

Air France, a little less so. They just topped up, and have less 737s to contend (how many do they even fly these days?).
They're fine for the moment.

NS
 
atlaaron
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 9:09 pm

There was recently a thread on A.Net that talked about how the Boyd Group felt United was concerning itself with one thing, selling itself. Looking for new planes to be delivered after 2015 does not fit with that.

While I think UA would like to merge with someone, I think Boyd was off.
 
gigneil
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 9:14 pm

I don't think Boyd is wrong that their top officers are focused on that.

In the meantime, they do have an airline to run and are hedging against failure, and they have chief pilots and operations directors and VPs to look at new planes while Tilton bends over for prospective dates.

NS
 
PresRDC
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 9:21 pm

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 2):
The major benefit will have to come from the engines, and neither vendor is ready.

Pratt will be ready by 2013.
 
visityyj
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 9:24 pm

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 2):
Air France, a little less so. They just topped up, and have less 737s to contend (how many do they even fly these days?).

None. (2 "stored" at Perpignan though).
 
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tjwgrr
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 9:27 pm

Isn't NWA pushing for the same thing, a composite narrow body?
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gigneil
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 9:27 pm

Quoting PresRDC (Reply 5):
Pratt will be ready by 2013.

Unfortunately, I think you and I both know that neither manufacturer will launch a program based on Pratt and Whitney's word.

NS
 
PresRDC
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 9:35 pm

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 8):
Unfortunately, I think you and I both know that neither manufacturer will launch a program based on Pratt and Whitney's word.

I strongly disagree.

Pratt will be ground testing its GTF eithe rlater this year or early next year and flight testing is set for some time next year.

Further, Pratt is under contract to develop the same type of engine for MHI by 2013. While this would obviously need to be scaled-up for a 737/A320, they are contractually committed to produce the core design by that time.
 
gigneil
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 9:37 pm

I hope you are right. I'll buy you a beer.

NS
 
jacobin777
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 9:45 pm

IIRC, WN has been pushing for this also.
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ikramerica
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 9:54 pm

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 2):
Both Uni-ted and Air France can push all they want...



Quoting Tjwgrr (Reply 7):
Isn't NWA pushing for the same thing, a composite narrow body?

With these 3 large carriers, added to AA, CO, WN and DL, Boeing could launch the program right now and have an order book approaching 1000 including options. So it really leads one to believe they don't have the resources nor the engines to offer it yet.

Once the 787 is sorted out, expect Boeing to offer first. They have more to improve on over their 737NG than Airbus does over their A320 anyway, and the A320 is a stronger product which will get even stronger with the E versions arriving.
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SkyexRamper
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 10:06 pm

United just needs to push itself onto the next 737 variant. What do they need outside the 737 family? After the bring in 737s to replace all their older 737s and A319/20s they can merge with Continental.
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gigneil
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 10:08 pm

They can merge with Continental now.

NS
 
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4everRC
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 10:21 pm

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 14):
They can merge with Continental now.

...and sell their Airbii to the merged DL/NW!  duck 
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KELPkid
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 10:22 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
United wants ''the narrowbody equivalent'' of a Boeing 787 or an Airbus A350, so it's speaking with the planemakers about starting such a program, Chief Financial Officer Jake Brace said today at a Goldman, Sachs & Co. conference in New York.

Let's take the B787 as en example:

How much fuel savings would the aircraft realize, using current-generation engines with, say, bleedless technology and largely composite airframe construction? I'd say not much, which is why B and A are saying "it's the engines, dummy" and are holding out for the next generation in narrowbody engines, like geared turbofans...
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mainMAN
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 10:55 pm

Quoting Flying-Tiger (Thread starter):
United wants ''the narrowbody equivalent'' of a Boeing 787 or an Airbus A350

If they want the 757 line to re-open (with 878/350 technology), why not just say so?

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 2):
They have one metric fuckton of 737s to retire

That's a lot of 737s....! Almost a desert full.
 
frontierflyer
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 10:57 pm

UA needs new planes now not 5 10 years.
 
gigneil
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 10:58 pm

Meh, IDK about that. I think they're doing ok with narrowbody capacity.

They definitely need widebody capacity...

NS
 
PanAm747
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:00 pm

Quote:
If they want the 757 line to re-open (with 878/350 technology), why not just say so?

I think they are (in their usual round-about speak), but THAT would be one heck of an airliner, yes? Amazing take-off performance with a lighter weight?  eyepopping 

As far as narrowbody demands, let's not forget that AA has some rather old Mad Dogs still flying and will be looking for something all new to replace them. Along with United and possibly NW, what about DL? Will they in the market for soon for replacing their 737's and 757's?
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roseflyer
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:20 pm

Quoting Frontierflyer (Reply 18):
UA needs new planes now not 5 10 years.

The United network is getting a ton of new airplanes, but all of them are Embraer 170s and CRJ-700s. The are replacing many 737s. But I look forward to more mainline planes entering the fleet. The mainline fleet has been shrinking for a while.
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Tango-Bravo
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:38 pm

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 11):
IIRC, WN has been pushing for this also.

In fact, Herb Kelleher has been quoted as telling a Boeing official that if Boeing could translate the technology of the 787 to an aircraft the size of a 737, WN would immediately place an order for 200 aircraft.
 
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1337Delta764
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:44 pm

So, is there a chance that the engine competition for the Y1/737RS and NSR could be CFM vs. Pratt, leaving RR out? While the market could theoretically support three engine manufacturers, it is up to Boeing/Airbus to decide on that. I personally think that the 787 market might have been able to support three engine manufacturers as well, but Boeing decided against it. CFM already has a proposed engine, the LEAP56. Since there is no word that IAE will develop a new engine, for now we should assume that RR and Pratt will develop engines independently for the 737RS/NSR.
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SPREE34
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Wed Nov 07, 2007 11:51 pm

Quoting Tango-Bravo (Reply 22):
In fact, Herb Kelleher has been quoted as telling a Boeing official that if Boeing could translate the technology of the 787 to an aircraft the size of a 737, WN would immediately place an order for 200 aircraft.

Southwest is about the only US carrier with the checkbook to do it.

I don't see Airbus or Boeing going into any R&D debt for the US carriers wishes anytime soon. I"m sure both manufacturers are already studying 320/737 replacements. They'll both want to see demand from financially able customers before they start laying out the big money on development.

Another thought. When the new generation narrow body designs start showing up, Airbus and Boeing won't be the only two builders with offerings.
I don't understand everything I don't know about this.
 
jacobin777
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 12:28 am

Quoting Tango-Bravo (Reply 22):
Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 11):
IIRC, WN has been pushing for this also.

In fact, Herb Kelleher has been quoted as telling a Boeing official that if Boeing could translate the technology of the 787 to an aircraft the size of a 737, WN would immediately place an order for 200 aircraft.

...B787 composite technology will be more efficient in twin-isle planes and long-haul domestic....that is where the essential weight savings will be. Only about 8-10% of the 20%-25% advantage the B787 has over its rivals is due the weight savings from the CRFP itself, rest of it to manufacturing, maintenance, engines etc.

So until the engine technology is not ready (that's the "biggie"), I don't see either carrier ready to bring out something new..especially given the current backlog for both...
"Up the Irons!"
 
Super80DFW
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 12:58 am

It hurts me to think of a LEGACY carrier asking a european company for new aircraft. Nothing against Airbus. Airbus is a very nice aircraft manufacturer. Just would think that an american airline would want to help the US economy not the european economy.
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PlanesNTrains
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 1:15 am

Quoting Super80DFW (Reply 26):
It hurts me to think of a LEGACY carrier asking a european company for new aircraft. Nothing against Airbus. Airbus is a very nice aircraft manufacturer. Just would think that an american airline would want to help the US economy not the european economy

I'm sure others will reply with how much of the content in Boeing aircraft is made overseas, and much of the content in an Airbus aircraft is made in America, and that many European carriers opt for Boeing aircraft, so a US carrier opting for an Airbus aircaft shouldn't be of concern - so I won't go there.  Smile

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-Dave
 
ceo@afg
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 1:20 am

I've heard the statements made about composite fuselages not giving much weight reduction for a narrowbody vs. a widebody. Fair enough, one major point which I've not seen mentioned at all however, is the massive cost reduction in maintenance.

You might not see much fuel savings, unless PW manages to improve fuel burn drastically with their new GTF (and GE, RR, CFM and IAE manage to do the same with whatever offering they bring to the next generation of NBs).

You WILL however see a major impact on your maintenance budget.
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ikramerica
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 1:35 am

Quoting Tango-Bravo (Reply 22):
In fact, Herb Kelleher has been quoted as telling a Boeing official that if Boeing could translate the technology of the 787 to an aircraft the size of a 737, WN would immediately place an order for 200 aircraft.

Firm orders + options would be, right off the bat:

CO 100
AA 150
WN 250
Ryanair 200
NW or UA 150 (I wouldn't assume both would go Boeing, one would go A320E)
DL 150

That's 1000 right there.

And if they do introduce a TRUE 757 replacement, expect another order+option:
CO 50
AA 125
NW or UA 75
DL 125

That's another 375, for a total of 1350+ orders and options. And that's only from 6 customers (though some of the biggest).

Boeing of course knows this. They know all of these carriers are still dragging their heals on replacing their entire older fleet with 737NGs (or going to Airbus in the case of UA and NW), so one assumes that they have told them when the planes will be available and given them a general idea of what they will be like, but it's all been done behind closed doors.
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co777er
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 1:44 am

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 29):
And if they do introduce a TRUE 757 replacement, expect another order+option:
CO 50

I'd say more than that! But they need some more money first (duh).

EWR - Europe / High-density domestic / Caribbean
IAH - More South American routes and Latin America routes as well.
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ikramerica
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 2:17 am

Quoting CO777ER (Reply 30):
I'd say more than that! But they need some more money first (duh).

Well, they have 739ERs coming in, which already allows for 757s to be used for expansion. And the 757-300s will stick around for another 15 years, maybe even joined by a few more second hand as time goes by. 757RS would be used to replace the 41 752s they have now, so 50 sounds about right as a rough number even including some expansion. If the planes can fly to southern/eastern europe, then maybe even 10 more to directly replace the 762s (which will at first be replaced by 787s, but eventually the 764s would leave, and those planes can shift up to replace those, meaning you'd need to re-replace the 762s...  Wink ).
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dl767captain
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 2:18 am

Quoting 4everRC (Reply 1):
IMO, A and B will start considering this when 737s and A320s stop selling, or at least slows down

Thats not a good idea for A or B, they should use the large 737 and A320 order book as a safety net so they have time to make a great replacement while they are selling good, so when sales do slow down they will have the replacement ready for production.

Quoting PresRDC (Reply 9):
Pratt will be ground testing its GTF eithe rlater this year or early next year and flight testing is set for some time next year.

Further, Pratt is under contract to develop the same type of engine for MHI by 2013. While this would obviously need to be scaled-up for a 737/A320, they are contractually committed to produce the core design by that time.

Isn't PW the more popular engine manufacturer for the narrow bodies? i could easily be wrong.

Quoting Skyexramper (Reply 13):
United just needs to push itself onto the next 737 variant. What do they need outside the 737 family? After the bring in 737s to replace all their older 737s and A319/20s they can merge with Continental.

Well if boing can make a great (Y1) to replace both their 737s and 757s then UA would go with them, but only if the Y1 would beat out the NSR, that puts UA in a good position they have 737s and A320s (both series) so they can choose from either manufacturer, it will probalby come down to if A or B has the engine type UA wants
And merging with CO, just think when CO needs to replace all those 737s, they will no doubt chose the Y1, along with DL and AA, so boeing should definately be ready.
 
gigneil
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 2:37 am

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 32):
Isn't PW the more popular engine manufacturer for the narrow bodies? i could easily be wrong.

PW doesn't even make engines for todays most popular narrowbodies. CFM owns the lions share due to its exclusivity on the 737 plus its about 50ish percent share of the A320 family.

NS
 
platinumfoota
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 2:52 am

What UA really wants is a 757NG. 757 with better fuel efficiency and maybe a composite fuselage. UA uses the 757 for P.S service, Hawaii and between hubs, they're getting old  fight  There is no current replacement for the 757, thats what UA is pushing for.
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aerlingusa330
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 2:56 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 27):
I'm sure others will reply with how much of the content in Boeing aircraft is made overseas,

True,

But Boeing is an American-owned company  Smile

and!

American-owned means tax dollars  Wink
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PresRDC
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 2:57 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 33):
PW doesn't even make engines for todays most popular narrowbodies. CFM owns the lions share due to its exclusivity on the 737 plus its about 50ish percent share of the A320 family.

Sure it does, through IAE.
 
UA_727
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 2:59 am

Quoting Platinumfoota (Reply 34):
What UA really wants is a 757NG. 757 with better fuel efficiency and maybe a composite fuselage. UA uses the 757 for P.S service, Hawaii and between hubs, they're getting old There is no current replacement for the 757, thats what UA is pushing for.

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gigneil
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 3:01 am

Iiii don't think that's all of it...

I think UA, like a lot of folks, want a family of craft that are common that covers from about the 73G to a little larger than the 757 with, maybe, basic transatlantic range.

I maintain that a family of craft but two different wings is optimal. A 318/319/736/73G size set of planes with one wing and 3500ish nm range and a 738/739/320/321/757 maybe 753 size set of planes with another said wing and 3500ish nm range (or some combination thereof... I could see the 318/736 size plane being eliminated entirely, possibly even the baseline being in between the 73G/319 and 738/320 today and the largest being between the size of the 752 and 753, you know?)

Now, that may not be doable. These planes are light already, and composite construction may not really drop their weight significantly. If they really beat by 15 or so percent but maintain their weight I think we'd be ok except for possibly that largest plane still being a bit sluggish on takeoff but with still good performance in air.

NS
 
PresRDC
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 3:12 am

Quoting DL767captain (Reply 32):
Isn't PW the more popular engine manufacturer for the narrow bodies? i could easily be wrong.

I think, P&W still has the largest installed fleet, but the number is steadily declining as the fleet ages. Over time, it will lose-out to the CFM56. I don't recall the exact year when it is forecast to happen, but it is not that far off.

The thing to understand about the engine business is that it is very capital intensive to launch a new engine program. Not only do you have the costs to develop the engine, but you have the costs to sell the engine, which, essentially, involves paying airlines to take the engine. At the end of the day, the a new engine deal is really a financial deal.
 
BlueSkys
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 3:55 am

I may be completey wrong here, but should Boeing have never even thought of the 748 and just started on a 737/757 replacement?

Seems like a much better decision considering how the 748 is selling.

Or, just pitched a 748 Cargo version.

Thoughts?
 
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N328KF
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 4:03 am

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 2):
Air France, a little less so. They just topped up, and have less 737s to contend (how many do they even fly these days?).



Quoting Visityyj (Reply 6):
None. (2 "stored" at Perpignan though).

Well, keep in mind that AF/KL has been negotiating lately as a consolidated group. With that in mind, KL, Transavia NL and Transavia FR have substantial 737s in their inventory.
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ckfred
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 4:16 am

I think AA said a while back that it would prefer to order a new generation of narrowbodies, but it can't wait for the timetable that Boeing presumably is following, deliveries starting in 2012-2014. So, that's why it is pushing up deliveries of 737-800s, starting in 2009.

One of the questions is how many variants will Boeing offer? Any airline that has 757s and 737s would love to see a variant in the 180 to 190 seat range.

By the same token, how small will Boeing go? Anyone flying A319s or 737-300s would presumably want a plane around 120 to 130 seats.
 
tdscanuck
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 4:22 am

Quoting PresRDC (Reply 9):
Pratt will be ground testing its GTF eithe rlater this year or early next year and flight testing is set for some time next year.

Further, Pratt is under contract to develop the same type of engine for MHI by 2013. While this would obviously need to be scaled-up for a 737/A320, they are contractually committed to produce the core design by that time.

The biggie problem with the GTF isn't the technology or performance, it's the durability. It's pretty easy to analyze a GTF on paper and know that it gives you the kind of gains you need, and Pratt has been working on bits of it for so long that I don't think there's any really significant technology risk left. The major concern is durability. The CFM56 is a *very* reliable engine with a very long maintenance interval. No operator is going to want to backslide on that and, no matter what Pratt says, Boeing and Airbus are going to want years of hard performance data for that gearbox before they're ready to bet the proverbial farm on it.

Tom.
 
Vctony
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 4:49 am

I am thinking that the new baseline aircraft size is around 135-140 seats (first + economy) (in between the 73G/319 and 738/320 (and around the size of the MD-81/82/83/88). Most markets that can support a 73G/319 could support a more fuel efficient aircraft with 10-15 more seats. My thinking is that the baseline new narrowbody aircraft should be this size and have a variant seating around 160-165 seats and another at about 185-190 seats. I also agree about two separate wing designs (one for a longer range aircraft and one for short turn, high cycle operations). AA, CO, DL, NW, UA, US, WN would all be believed to be major customers of this type of aircraft; as would AF, KL, LH, BA, AZ, IB, and most large MD-8x, 73X, A32X, and 75X operators. I don't think Boeing should go smaller than MD-8X sized for the baseline model though.

PS: I wish that actually a decent amount of R and D money was spent on developing a high speed rail system in the US. I enjoy the European train system and feel that if something similar was done in the US the travel experience in general would be more pleasant. Of course, if such a system were developed I could see most domestic flying by legacies eliminated (sans transcons) and the domestic travel network would almost be exclusively trains and LCCs with the legacies doing the transcontinental/international flying. As much as I am an aviation fan I am equally a rail fan.
 
asteriskceo
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 5:31 am

752 replacement I assume?
 
aveugle
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 6:05 am

Maybe Boeing should make a next generation 757?  Smile  Silly  duck 
 
RDUDDJI
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 7:00 am

Wow. That's the same thing myself and others have been saying for over a year...(and is not really surprising to anyone who has a pulse). The composite narrow body idea is nothing new. But kudos to UA for waiting this time...

Great to see some analysts sign on...
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
commavia
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RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 7:11 am

Quoting Ckfred (Reply 42):
One of the questions is how many variants will Boeing offer? Any airline that has 757s and 737s would love to see a variant in the 180 to 190 seat range.

Well, I think the question of scalability is one of the biggest issues/question marks that airlines are eagerly waiting to hear about regarding Boeing's/Airbus' next-generation narrowbodies.

If either of them could offer a single airframe that could be efficiently scaled in the entire 100 to 200 seat range, with variants probably at the 100-, 125-, 150-, and 200-seat levels, without sacrificing too much in the way of operating economics or performance, I think airlines would be highly, highly receptive. Especially since, if you look at certain airlines (just in the U.S., not even counting foreign carriers), the numbers are simply astounding: if AA were given an airframe that could serve the entire 100-200 seat market, you're looking at 500 airframes, easily, assuming only very minimal expansion. And that's just one airline. Delta, United, Continental, etc. would all have similarly massive requirements if that sort of technology were achieved.
 
FlyboyOz
Posts: 1743
Joined: Tue Nov 21, 2000 10:05 am

RE: United Pushes For New Narrowbody

Thu Nov 08, 2007 8:02 am

I thought UA have got the new aircraft already- i.e. B757-200 with winglets. It should be called B757-400. Similar to the 747's series. Looks like new aircraft. LOL!
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