EI321
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EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 1:20 pm



Quote:
Emirates has left the door open to potential future orders with Boeing for its 747-8I and proposed "777X" enhanced, despite the major deal at the Dubai air show for up to 120 Airbus A350 XWBs.

The A350 deal, which comprises 70 firm orders and 50 options for delivery from 2014, came after a long evaluation that also included Boeing's proposed 787-10 stretch. However, Emirates Airline president Tim Clark says that the majority of the firmly ordered XWBs will be used for replacement of older aircraft, and there is still a longer-term requirement where Boeing could compete with the improved 777 derivative that it is studying.


http://www.flightglobal.com/articles...-boeing-despite-huge-a350-xwb.html

1. I thought the 747-8I has been frozen, is it able to reach LAX as desired?
2. Can the 777NG be launched in time to order it before the A350 comes along?
 
MSYtristar
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 1:44 pm

Who the hell knows what EK is thinking?

I personally think that every order EK makes is a huge gamble. I just cannot fathom the airline taking ALL the options for the aircraft they have on order. 50+ A380's...a huge risk for EK....70+ A350's....huge fleet of 777's which will be around for awhile....A340's.....maybe more Boring orders....in my opinion, way too many large aircraft for the market. DXB may be a happening place right now but who knows what will happen in the next 5-10 years? I know people over there like to flaunt the fact that they have billions upon billions to spend, but it's getting ridiculous. I will stick with my prediction that in 10-15 years time we could very well see a huge amount of widebodies suddenly available on the open market.
 
aa1818
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 1:54 pm



Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 1):
I personally think that every order EK makes is a huge gamble. I just cannot fathom the airline taking ALL the options for the aircraft they have on order. 50+ A380's...a huge risk for EK....70+ A350's....huge fleet of 777's which will be around for awhile....A340's.....maybe more Boring orders....in my opinion, way too many large aircraft for the market. DXB may be a happening place right now but who knows what will happen in the next 5-10 years? I know people over there like to flaunt the fact that they have billions upon billions to spend, but it's getting ridiculous. I will stick with my prediction that in 10-15 years time we could very well see a huge amount of widebodies suddenly available on the open market.

I agree somewhat with you.
I think that if EK was the only airline in the MidEast then their growth etc could be sustainable in the long term, however the problem for me is with QR, EY, GF, RJ and others, also on spending sprees vying to become hubs. Also DXB is no longer the only city pushing for the hot-spot. DOH and Abu Dabi are also in the running. I think that something will have to give, and in less than 10 years we will see some sort of 'equilibrium' position where the carriers cannot and will not grow too much and will have ot concede certain routes to each other.

Amazing growth though, for such a volatile region!
I'd love for EK to get some new Boeings- 748is need some orders and maybe push Boeing to stay competitive with the 777!

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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 2:01 pm



Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 1):
50+ A380's...a huge risk for EK....70+ A350's....huge fleet of 777's which will be around for awhile

Have you seen their pax number growth? Year on year.

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 1):
DXB may be a happening place right now but who knows what will happen in the next 5-10 years?

The vast majority of EK's pax are not going to Dubai, they're flying via DXB to somewhere else.
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 2:04 pm



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 3):
Have you seen their pax number growth? Year on year.

I understand that. But who's to say it will continue at that level?
 
NYC777
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 2:17 pm

Well the're apparently still interested in teh 787-10 too and I think Boeing is going to have some news on that very soon.
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 2:38 pm



Quoting EI321 (Thread starter):
1. I thought the 747-8I has been frozen, is it able to reach LAX as desired?

I think that there is a distance between what Boeing is willing to Bet thier money on in terms of performance, and what EK is willing to bet thier money on in performance. Doesn't matter that much to either, given the number of years thet the 747 is sold out coupled with how soon the flight test program for the 748 will begin.

If it all goes right, and Boeing does beat the contracted specs, then I'm guessing it will be a heck of alot closer to what EK was demanding than most would think.

Its also possible that EK will get some for short haul VLA flights, but I doubt it somewhat with the 777 having 10Y making their seat count quite close to the 747 compared to the normal 777 => 747 seat count gap. In addition for short haul to india, the 747's quickly hit thier exit limit seat count, making both the 777 and A380 better choices for high density routes that are almost entirely Y class. A 777-300 will only lose a handful of seats compared to a 747, and the A380 gets upto stupid huge counts.
 
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 3:01 pm



Quoting NYC777 (Reply 5):
Well the're apparently still interested in teh 787-10 too and I think Boeing is going to have some news on that very soon.

I doubt it. They've never stated that. It was mentioned at the time of the A350 deal that they were still interested in the -8 and -9, which were to be pitted against the A350-800, and now in this article the 747-8i and '777X'. No mention was made of them still being interested in the 787-10. I think that ship has sailed with the A350 order.
 
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 3:31 pm



Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 1):
.70+ A350's....huge fleet of 777's which will be around for awhile....A340's.....maybe more Boring orders..

...most of the A350's are for fleet replacement of earlier aircraft...

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 1):
I personally think that every order EK makes is a huge gamble. I just cannot fathom the airline taking ALL the options for the aircraft they have on order. 50+ A380's..

....I don't know where they are going to be sending all of their A380's to, but certainly Australia, United Kingdom, possibly New York will be seeing number of them.
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EI321
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 3:53 pm



Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 8):
Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 1):
.70+ A350's....huge fleet of 777's which will be around for awhile....A340's.....maybe more Boring orders..

...most of the A350's are for fleet replacement of earlier aircraft...

I wish people would realise this! Emirates will eventually have about 100 777's and the A350 order will be used to replace their 777's, A332's, A340's [if they still have any left by 2014], etc.

I still think they wont order the 747-8i. It may be just a negotiating tool for more A380's, but then If an outsider like me is able to conclude that Emirates interest in the 747-8i is a ploy, surely Airbus will call their bluff on this also!
 
PEET7G
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 4:47 pm

I think EK has the power, the will and the money to order everything and anything... they are smart enough to lock production slots and pull an A340-600 trick on the manufacturers any time. I think it was a great trick, and if you are in their position, I think you can afford the luxury of playing these games on the manufacturers. Why is it so unbelievable, that they just might order an equal amount of 787-10s if it lives up to their expectations, and later take delivery of the better performing type? Oh, and before anyone jumps on the issue of penalty money... think again... there will always be an other product the manufacturer will be happy to relocate your money on, so they will not lose you as a customer.

One big issue that bothers me is: I am not saying that the EK bubble will burst, or that there is no base for their shopping spree, but what most of the EK lovers fail to see, is that the run away success of EK came at a time when they managed to offer superior service on superior equipment in a market environment where everyone was pulling back on expenses by offering low value services, reducing costs, etc, etc... EK has to face several issues in the future:

-Declining standards mainly due to fast expansion (I can testify on that one for sure)
-New EK style wannabes like QR, EY (and their product is one to look at for sure!)
-Fast growing, and very, very high standard competitors on one of their target market: India (think of what 9W, AI, or IT will have to offer!!!)
-In all together they will face new and even superior products like the stunning new SQ product, the upcoming QF upgrade and many, many more carriers growing up and even surpassing them sometimes.

In all together, I am not saying that there is no hope for their business plan, on the contrary... if anyone can do it, EK can... but it will be much harder and at some point their growth will stall, or there will be a total showdown between their competitors, or something will definitely happen for sure. The only thing I am optimistic about is that us, the travellers will be the big winners with airlines fighting to the dead with lower prices, possibly better services, etc... I hope...
As for their plan to start up new bases abroad to enter new markets... well, I don't see governments allowing EK to ruin their local carriers, at least not in this form... but who knows?
Peet7G
 
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 4:57 pm

Well, well, well...
First I've mentioned the hypothetical possibility of Boeing developing the "true NG" 777 variants, dubbed 777-8 (777-200LR replacement) and 777-9 (777-300ER replacement).
Now mr. Tim "I tell OEMs what to design" Clark is speaking about the mysterious "777X".

Interesting... V E R Y interesting!!!  scratchchin 
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MSYtristar
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 5:15 pm



Quoting EI321 (Reply 9):
Emirates will eventually have about 100 777's

I know that. And I also know that no matter how you look at it, EK will have such a huge fleet of widebodies (well, they do now really) down the road that the chance is there that overcapacity could...hence "could"...become an issue for them down the road. DXB is not an immune market. There is always a limit on future growth. As an enthusiast I love to see them order everything under the sun, but I just have a hunch that they could be dealing with a rather unpleasant situation down the road once all the 380's join the fleet, as well as the hundreds of other new wide body deliveries. I wish them luck, of course.
 
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 5:24 pm



Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 12):
As an enthusiast I love to see them order everything under the sun, but I just have a hunch that they could be dealing with a rather unpleasant situation down the road once all the 380's join the fleet, as well as the hundreds of other new wide body deliveries. I wish them luck, of course.

I agree with much of what MSYtristar is saying. Especially his thoughts on the used widebody market just down the road...just filled with an incredible variety and amount of our large birds. I think we will be seeing many widebody a/c being broken up long before they, well, live the life of a NWA DC-9. Future oil prices don't exactly help this situation either.
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A350
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 5:37 pm

Their strategy is economy of scale: always have the bigger planes with lower CASM and therefore be able to offer the superiour product and the denser network at better prices than the competition. So they are kind of purchase addicted since they have to keep the distance to the fast growing rivals. I don't see the other middle east carriers as a real threat for them, EK is the original. The indian airlines however may become a tough competitor with a natural advantage on the indian O&D market as well as on the Europe-East Asia market. Their business model is risky, but sound.

Concerning the article cited by the thread starter, I wonder if this is a diplomatic way to say goodbye to the Dreamliner rather than something else. Read it carefully: "Emirates has left the door open... for its 747-8I and proposed "777X" enhanced" . He speaks about hypothetical airplanes (since he wants a shrinked 748), no word about the 787.
Cheers

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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 5:39 pm



Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 1):
maybe more Boring orders

Oh I don't know - Boeings aren't all that boring!
 
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 5:42 pm



Quoting SK736 (Reply 15):
Oh I don't know - Boeings aren't all that boring!

Nice catch man. I guess spell check IS a good thing.
 
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 6:16 pm



Quoting A350 (Reply 14):
therefore be able to offer the superiour product and the denser network at better prices than the competition.

....flying EK a couple of times per year every year, I don't find some of EK's prices to be completely competitive.. no 

Quoting A350 (Reply 14):
He speaks about hypothetical airplanes (since he wants a shrinked 748)

....he wants a plane which can carry pax/cargo a desired distance...it doesn't matter if its a shrink or not..the "shrunk" version would have been able to do that however Boeing is working on getting the current size of the B748I to EK's range specification.... yes 
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BlueSkys
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 6:16 pm

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 12):
DXB is not an immune market. There is always a limit on future growth

No region is ever immune, But.... Dubai is the fastest developing city in the world, and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future. UAE is being smart about it, they do not want to base their economy entirely on oil and are doing a VERY good job of creating sustainability after black gold. Dubai is probably the most stable investment out of most world cities.

[Edited 2007-11-17 10:17:37]
 
Rbgso
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 6:59 pm



Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 16):
I guess spell check IS a good thing.

Spell check wouldn't have helped you my friend, as "boring" is a valid word....
 
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lightsaber
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350

Sat Nov 17, 2007 8:55 pm

EK knows they will order again, so its

From the thread launch article:

Quote:
Tim Clark says that the majority of the firmly ordered XWBs will be used for replacement of older aircraft, and there is still a longer-term requirement where Boeing could compete with the improved 777 derivative that it is studying.

"Fifty-eight of the 70 firm A350 orders are replacements for our A330s, A340-300s, 777-200s, and 777-300 Classics," says Clark.

Considering the new growth markets EK is entering, they will later need a new airframe. But for the 748I, I agree with many others here, its LAX or bust. Boeing also has to watch out for the A380R. But that depends on production slots. My sources say Boeing can increase production by 6 a year (yea, a mere 1/2 per month) given about a 20 month lead time. They can even increase production by 2 a year with very little lead time (but at a price-premium for the first units).  spin  So if Boeing will promise the range (contractually), then they would have a leg in.  spin  Not that Boeing's crying over EK's 77W acceptance rate...  Wink

Quoting PEET7G (Reply 10):
-Fast growing, and very, very high standard competitors on one of their target market: India (think of what 9W, AI, or IT

Ok, after you talked service, why is AI on that list?  Wink Seriously 9W is getting a good reputation among western Expatriates who do a lot of business in India. They #1 complaint? Frequency or the lack of it. In other words, they want to see more growth!  bigthumbsup  IT? Needs to go international fast, but that's its own thread.

Hence why we talk CASM with EK:

Quoting A350 (Reply 14):
Their strategy is economy of scale: always have the bigger planes with lower CASM

EK has no choice but to have a low CASM. RASM tends to be a bit higher for non-stop service. (Sometimes quite a bit higher) So whatever aircraft EK orders, they have to recognize they'll have to get competitive. However, India to the US... until there is an economical non-stop aircraft, all of the hubs will compete on their individual merits. And that will generate a lot of a.net discussions!  bigthumbsup 

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 17):
however Boeing is working on getting the current size of the B748I to EK's range specification....

And that is the best solution for all around. Hence why the group of consultant structural engineers I want to hire won't be released from Boeing!  hissyfit  Hence why many contracts are called "golden handcuffs."  Wink Hmmm... I shouldn't look in the mirror when making comments like that...  scratchchin   Wink

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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 9:09 pm

Is it better to gamble and have spare capacity? I have no idea with this but I'm sure someone here has.

Which is better here, forgetting the original cost of purchasing the aircraft, because for that lets say that with all the oil money behind them EK can afford to buy all the outstanding planes they have on order. Is it better to have...

1. A full B777-200 having to fly at Max weight and fuel

or

2. A 70% full B777-300 that is obviously flying way under capacity

My question is this, does it always make sense to fly the correct capacity plane at 100% capacity over a plane that is larger than required at a lower capacity, would EK be better off, excluding the purchase of the frames to have over capacity in their fleet than vice versa, is it econoically stupid to have a larger aircraft flying a route at say 70%.
If it's not that stupid to fly a larger plane undercapacity, then surely this is an acceptable risk to take, if the market goes crazy, they your extra capacity is to your advantage, however, if your flying to your capacity and the market goes crazy, you will surely struggle to respond as new aircraft and crew would not be that easy to source at short notice.

 confused 
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 9:33 pm

I don't think they'll order the 787 or the 748, they're just blowing smoke to keep Airbus' salespersons on therir toes.
I also think it's brilliant of Boeing not to invest heavily in the continued success of one customer.
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Stitch
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 9:42 pm

I still don't see a 747-8I in EK's future, no matter what it's specs are. At best, they'd lease some until they can get A380-800Rs.

As for the 787-10, a ~550,000mt model using a stretched 787-9 fuselage and all other systems would make a fantastic A330-300 and 777-200A replacement, offering more passengers, more belly cargo, and better range. It would also do alright as a 777-300A replacement, as well.

Since EK flies the 772 and 773 and was rumored to take 30 A333s at Dubai...  scratchchin 

Quoting Jacobin777 (Reply 8):
...most of the A350's are for fleet replacement of earlier aircraft...

 yes 

EK will replace 8 A343s in 2014 with the first batch of A350-900s. Then they will replace the 12 777-300As with 20 A350-900s. They will then replace the 10 A345s and 9 772Es with more A350-900s. The other 23 units are likely for expansion.
 
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 9:47 pm



Quoting Lightsaber (Reply 20):
EK has no choice but to have a low CASM. RASM tends to be a bit higher for non-stop service. (Sometimes quite a bit higher) So whatever aircraft EK orders, they have to recognize they'll have to get competitive. However, India to the US... until there is an economical non-stop aircraft, all of the hubs will compete on their individual merits. And that will generate a lot of a.net discussions!

Within a year, India-US market will see a lot of capacity from Indian carriers.

Jet will continue to add new cities on India and US side through BRU--I expect three more cities, LAX, IAD, and ORD by the end of 2008.

AI will start its operations through MUC, and it is reasonable to assume that they will have flights to at least three NA cities.

IT will be eligible to fly by August 2008 and should be able to start operations to three NA cities by 2009. However, IT is going to pursue a non-stop strategy to US--it may be a game changer if done right.
 
EI321
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sat Nov 17, 2007 10:38 pm



Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 22):
I don't think they'll order the 787 or the 748, they're just blowing smoke to keep Airbus' salespersons on therir toes.

As I said above, is it really plausable that guys like us can cop this, but Airbus themselves cant?
 
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sun Nov 18, 2007 2:49 am

EK always seems to be on a spending spree!

But I wonder, if EK is being a little too ambitious?
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Stitch
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350

Sun Nov 18, 2007 4:28 am



Quoting Stitch (Reply 23):
Then they will replace the 12 777-300As with 20 A350-900s.

That should have been 12 777-300s replaced with 20 A350-1000s (per Wiki).
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sun Nov 18, 2007 4:32 am

DXB and the other Middle East cities will always be hubs. There will never be nearly enough in Dubai, (or Abu Dhabi or Doha, etc), to make it a huge end destination. That strategy relies on customers not having a competitor who flies direct.

EK does a ton of business to India. Sure, at the moment, there is huge traffic between India and the Middle east. At some point, though, that will slow down. Dubai is already pricing itself out of the market as a destination in itself and its infrastructure just can't keep up. There isn't much you can get in Dubai that isn't nicer, cheaper and more convenient somewhere else. At some point, the novelty of Dubai will wear off.

What happens when the Indian airlines really get going? If Indian customers can fly direct to their destinations, why would they route through DXB?

Anyone who's flown Y on EK will tell you that the service is going way down. It's all about price, now. They are usually the cheapest. The more seats they have available, the cheaper they can sell them. That will only work to a point, though. The question is how much the rising seat counts of the regional competitors will eat into their margins.
What the...?
 
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lightsaber
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sun Nov 18, 2007 4:42 am



Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 24):
IT will be eligible to fly by August 2008 and should be able to start operations to three NA cities by 2009. However, IT is going to pursue a non-stop strategy to US--it may be a game changer if done right.

I'm going to quote you out of order as this is what I feel is the game changer. The "natural advantage" 9W, IT, and AI enjoy is the ability to bypass the intermittent points.

Oh, I should have been clearer earlier, West Coast US non-stop.  spin  Amazing how wrong what I typed before is if you are east coast based.  Wink

Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 24):
Jet will continue to add new cities on India and US side through BRU--I expect three more cities, LAX, IAD, and ORD by the end of 2008.

Definitely  hyper  and their scissor hub strategy is an exciting way to provide a tremendous amount of interconnectivity. Funny how a google search to find out the expansion plans of the BRU scissors hub kept pointing back to a.net.  Wink

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antskip
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350

Sun Nov 18, 2007 5:12 am

Quoting MSYtristar (Reply 1):
Who the hell knows what EK is thinking?

EK does not appear like an organization that does not know what it is doing - and far into the future. And they are the only people who need to know what the are thinking. I would think they would prefer that.

I don't know what EK are thinking, either (not being on their management team); but it seems to me that they are a very different model to most airlines. To EK opposite principles apply to most - the more capacity and more routes they have within their network the less risk, not more risk. Their whole plan seems to depend on bandwidth plus a web that feeds itself. The greater the size of the web the greater the redundancy. An idea taken from I.T.? Dangers lie in quality control more than quantity control, IMHO. They have to provide a consistent product throughout their web. If there is any weakness in quality of product anywhere, it will affect the whole system. Ironically, at present their super-hub, DXB, is also their weakest point - it is sub-standard. Yes, they have a new airport in construction - but their planning there has been far more tardy even than Airbus with the A380. Such quality lapses will affect EK big-time, and if they allow such things to re-occur, no giant worldwide capacity/bandwidth and worldwide reach/web will save them.

Quoting A350 (Reply 14):
Their strategy is economy of scale: always have the bigger planes with lower CASM and therefore be able to offer the superior product and the denser network at better prices than the competition.

absolutely! EK don't want to "dominate", so much as be the standard everywhere, internationally. the starbucks/macdonalds of the air. however, to do that, they have to have the same standards everywhere on their network. that will not be easy. smaller, more restricted enterprises like QF and NZ will be ready to exploit EK's weak spots.

[Edited 2007-11-17 21:15:11]

[Edited 2007-11-17 21:16:38]

[Edited 2007-11-17 21:23:51]

[Edited 2007-11-17 21:25:27]

[Edited 2007-11-17 21:26:30]
 
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:14 am

"Boeing is also working on engine and aerodynamic improvements in the 777-300ER and 777-200LR aircraft, , according to Mr Carson.

"We (Boeing and GE) are working on improvements from the GEnx (for the 787) program into the GE90," Carson said.

He also noted that Boeing was finetuning the aerodynamics of the aircraft and expected to offer airlines a package that would match the promised seat mile costs of the newly launched A350-1000 years before that aircraft entered service.

In the longer term, Boeing is considering its options for a replacement for the 777 that would possibly enter service in the 2015-2018 time frame." Interview with Geoffrey Thomas

This is what Scott Carson was saying during the show last week - this makes it look as though matching the A350-1000 will be a straight forward job - so does anyone imagine what EK's target for an improved 777 NG will be, with EIS in 2015? EK made Airbus try again several times with the A350 because they did not like a warmed over plane. If Boeing wants to use materials and methods from the 787 program, that will be a bit more than fine tuning. If the 737NG can hold its own against the A320 family, will Boeing do the same with the 777 NG? Range for 777-300ER NG would be about 8500 miles?
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350

Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:29 am



Quoting Alangirvan (Reply 31):
EK made Airbus try again several times with the A350 because they did not like a warmed over plane.

EK didn't like the size or performance of the original 350. They didn't really seem to care a lot about the materials. If Boeing can indeed improve the 777 performance levels to match the 350, and can keep it cheap enough, why wouldn't airlines buy it?

Most of the savings in the 350 will come from the engines. It's definitely in GE's best interest, as well as Boeings.
What the...?
 
klkla
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:45 am

Dubai only makes sense as a hub for so many routes. For the majority of the world DXB is not a convenient hub and for that reason EK will not be able to sustain their current growth. Luckily for Boeing most of their EK planes are being delivered now and in the near future, not years away when I foresee this airline encountering over-capacity problems. Airbus will bare the brunt of this because the majority of their orders are scheduled farther out.

I don't think this scenario will play out for at least another five years but EK will either default on a large percentage of their Airbus orders or become a reseller and/or leasing company IMHO.
 
BlueSky1976
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:31 am



Quoting Alangirvan (Reply 31):
If Boeing wants to use materials and methods from the 787 program, that will be a bit more than fine tuning. If the 737NG can hold its own against the A320 family, will Boeing do the same with the 777 NG?

If Boeing decides to give 777 a brand new composite wing, it will extend the market life of the 777 family by at least another 20 years.

Quoting Alangirvan (Reply 31):
Range for 777-300ER NG would be about 8500 miles?

I'd say probably somewhere around 8,000 - 8,600nm for 777-9 (777-300"NGER") and 8,600 - 10,000 nm for 777-8 (777-200"NGLR").
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chiad
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:42 am



Quoting Klkla (Reply 33):
For the majority of the world DXB is not a convenient hub

May I as you: "Why not?"
What have made you reach this conclusion?
 
hawkercamm
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:56 am



Quoting Antskip (Reply 30):
I don't know what EK are thinking, either (not being on their management team); but it seems to me that they are a very different model to most airlines. To EK opposite principles apply to most - the more capacity and more routes they have within their network the less risk, not more risk. Their whole plan seems to depend on bandwidth plus a web that feeds itself. The greater the size of the web the greater the redundancy. An idea taken from I.T.? Dangers lie in quality control more than quantity control, IMHO. They have to provide a consistent product throughout their web. If there is any weakness in quality of product anywhere, it will affect the whole system. Ironically, at present their super-hub, DXB, is also their weakest point - it is sub-standard. Yes, they have a new airport in construction - but their planning there has been far more tardy even than Airbus with the A380. Such quality lapses will affect EK big-time, and if they allow such things to re-occur, no giant worldwide capacity/bandwidth and worldwide reach/web will save them.

Just imagine the effect on the whole network if EK were ever able to purchase BA to get a LHR European hub. Add in a US west coast hub and they would be a truly world wide carrier that would compete with any of the alliances.

Would such an airline force the global alliances to merge together?
 
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scbriml
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sun Nov 18, 2007 10:48 am



Quoting Klkla (Reply 33):
For the majority of the world DXB is not a convenient hub and for that reason EK will not be able to sustain their current growth.

Have you looked at a globe? Dubai is very convenient for about 70% of the World's population. The other side of the World from Dubai is the middle of the Pacific.

Just one quick example, when my wife and I went to the Maldives for a vacation, we purchased a package based on best price for the resort we wanted. We didn't have a choice on airline, as it was a fixed package. We flew EK (and very good it was, even in Y).
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XT6Wagon
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sun Nov 18, 2007 12:13 pm



Quoting EI321 (Reply 25):
As I said above, is it really plausable that guys like us can cop this, but Airbus themselves cant?

EL321, its simple, The Airbus sales men are paid to guess just how much more or less a given airline is willing to pay for a Airbus instead of the plane they had Boeing quote.

Certainly Boeing knows what happens if you guess wrong on it, and suddenly an airline that had no actual intention of going to the other way is receiving planes from the other guys. JetBlue ring a bell? Its just one of the airlines that Boeing arrogance pissed off.

So far Airbus has been very willing to go right down to the bone from the reports out there. Only time will tell if they cut too deep or not on these contracts. Its clear though that if they didn't go far enough it would have been Boeing sales.

Which is why "threats" of going the other way almost always work. You don't sell those 20 A320 or 737 today to Airline X, and then 10 years down the road Mr losing Salesman is at the soup kitchen for the homeless cause Airline X just received its 50th plane of that type. Or 100th...

In EK's case, they have proven to both Airframe makers two very critical points

1.Make EK happy, EK fills your wallet
2. Piss off EK, EK tosses your planes and orders into the dumpster.

#1 prevents #2 from either company from telling EK to take a hike. So Boeing is going to work to see if they can make planes work for EK since there is money there. EK will buy them if they work for them. Airbus will try to do the same, and more pointedly have a fresh memory of just what happens when the plane stops working for EK. A346 order ring a bell? Only Airbus right now is in DEEP with EK since if they somehow piss them off enough to cancel the A380 or A350 order.... ouch. Boeing while would really like to keep the EK orders, doesn't have two major programs with unfilled EK orders hogging the order books.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sun Nov 18, 2007 1:18 pm



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 37):

It only works as a hub as long as airlines need to stop there for fuel, or they are flying EK. The Asian competition isn't sitting still while EK goes nuts. Most people I know that have flown the big 3 in the middle east, prefer EY and QR quality to EK's, but usually EK is cheaper. That could change, of course.

If airlines find enough passengers who want to fly point to point, that'll eat in DXB.

I'm not predicting the death knell of EK by any means. They've done a tremendous job but the other guys aren't slackers either.
What the...?
 
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scbriml
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sun Nov 18, 2007 3:42 pm



Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 39):
If airlines find enough passengers who want to fly point to point, that'll eat in DXB.

Well, it's going to take a good few years before we know if that's the case or not.

But again, as an example, just look at the UK airports that EK serves with long-haul flights - LHR, LGW, BHX, MAN, NCL, GLA. From those airports pax can connect to the rest of EK's network in DXB for Africa, Asia and the Middle East. It's easier and probably cheaper for folks to do that than to fly short-haul to LHR and fly BA. And, once established at those airports, EK isn't offering just one flight!

As much as I like BA (and I'm lucky to be a 25 min drive from LHR), they are not going to offer point-to-point services from BHX, MAN, NCL and GLA to anywhere near the number of destinations that EK can offer with one stop in DXB. As it happens, I think BA is unlikely to offer any international services from those airports. This is the thing that people forget when they say the new longer-range planes like the A350 and 787 will simply "bypass" DXB. EK will still have a lot to offer pax, and very likely more than the local carriers can.
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chiad
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Sun Nov 18, 2007 5:36 pm



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 37):
Dubai is very convenient for about 70% of the World's population.

I totally agree with you Scbriml.
Though EK doesn't fly from Oslo yet, I know it will happen sooner or later.
For me it would be perfect to fly EK from Oslo to Australia, the Pacific, Far East, Middle East, Indian Ocean and even Southern/Eastern Africa.
I am going to Mauritius in March, and funny enough .. I look to a flight where I can fly EK.
Think if they would start to fly an A350 to Oslo for a connection to all the places I mentioned above. It's at least as good as getting a flight connection in London, Frankfurt, Amsterdam or Paris.

Another thing worth taking notice of is that EK is being backed up by huge investment projects in Dubai.
http://www.bentbay.dk/dubai_construction.htm

Now ... if EK can offer a stop-over in Dubai for me and my wife when we travel, we are bound to use EK just to visit this high profiled city for a couple of days, if not to spend a vacation there.

And even just for shopping. In Dubai, the worlds biggest airport will offer shopping malls that few, if any, airport can match.
I am not very into shopping, but my wife ....  Smile
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alangirvan
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:29 am

How far is too far out of the way? Dubai and any of the Gulf hub airports are a bit off the great circle between UK and Pakistan or Indian airports, but priced right passengers are prepared to take an indirect flight. Airlines from the Gulf still sell travel between European cities and Asia - BKK and KUL even though non stop flights are available. Even when Jet and Kingfisher are flying non stop from India to North Ameirca, EK will still use price to attract people to a one stop service. So will EY, QR and perhaps Oman AS, and even Kang Pacific.
 
antskip
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:59 am



Quoting Chiad (Reply 41):
In Dubai, the worlds biggest airport will offer shopping malls that few, if any, airport can match.

Not yet it doesn't. The present airport is more like a refurbished hangar. Not enough room, overwhelmed rest-rooms (though the staff try very hard to keep the places clean and the people moving through...), basic eating and coffee options, and expensive duty-free. Definitely 2-star. For EK's sake, their new airport will have to be world-standard, rather than akin to a 1970's Greyhound bus terminal. Considering the huge investment in the airline, I am sure it will be a knockout - something to look forward to!

For now, it really is place to suffer rather than to enjoy in its own right. But then some people find it exotic...I don't think it is a good advert either for the UAE or for EK. Certainly not what I expected from the EK self-promotions I had been reading for so many years on their aircraft. Pure spin, IMHO.
 
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scbriml
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Mon Nov 19, 2007 8:57 am



Quoting Antskip (Reply 43):
Not yet it doesn't. The present airport is more like a refurbished hangar. Not enough room, overwhelmed rest-rooms (though the staff try very hard to keep the places clean and the people moving through...), basic eating and coffee options, and expensive duty-free. Definitely 2-star.

I think he's talking about the new airport, not DXB.

DXB should improve significantly once the terminal extension fully opens.
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OHLHD
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Mon Nov 19, 2007 9:12 am

Why not, maybe they will follow QR´s lead this time. Go for A350´s as well as B787´s.

The EK order was for sure a little wake up call for Boeing.  Smile
 
antskip
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Mon Nov 19, 2007 10:56 am



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 44):
I think he's talking about the new airport, not DXB.

Yeh - wondered about that (smile). Like a lot of people (especially EK executives?), I am looking forward to the new DXB airport. I feel that EK are actually, despite their overt complaints, relieved that the A380's were delayed 2 years, as the present DXB (and therefore EK) is in no state to deal with any more passengers coming through its doors. EK/DXB concept is already too successful for its home infrastructure. The home hub should be, if anything, a step up from being on the plane, not a decided step-down - something to look forward to, after flying for 14 hrs. The A380's and the new DXB should come on-line in better sync - a nice combo to look forward to, one feeding off the other.
 
columba
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Mon Nov 19, 2007 11:04 am

I can think that the 787-10 could replace the 777-300 (non ER) while the A350 will replace the A330/A340/77W on longhaul flights.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
JayinKitsap
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:26 pm

Each airline has an actual seat mile cost for each route in the system. Offering a ticket thru your hub with segments that have a total distance substantially over the competitions means either your pricing will not compete or your profits will tank. Conversely, your offering will be unappealing to the customer and be unlikely to be purchased. Few would take LHR-DXB-MAN over a LHR-MAN flight, even if the 1st was free. In long haul flights, having your segments be in total 20% longer in length could mean 4 or 5 extra hours of flying.

My real question with EK is when will their growth hit the wall on the routes where DXB has a reasonable advantage. EK has some 120 planes currently with 40 carrying about 260 pax average seating and the balance being about 340 pax for a total of 37,600 seats. They have on order 246 planes with 58 x 517 = 29,986 + 188 x 300 = 56,400 or 86,386 seats total. So in 8 years they will be between 90,000 and 120,000 seats. This is double to triple the current seats.

It would be a real challenge to keep yields profitable with that much increase. Perhaps EK can go where no airline has gone before. (to paraphrase an old qoute)
 
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zeke
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RE: EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal

Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:00 pm



Quoting JayinKitsap (Reply 48):
EK has some 120 planes currently with 40 carrying about 260 pax average seating and the balance being about 340 pax for a total of 37,600 seats. They have on order 246 planes with 58 x 517 = 29,986 + 188 x 300 = 56,400 or 86,386 seats total. So in 8 years they will be between 90,000 and 120,000 seats. This is double to triple the current seats.

It would be a real challenge to keep yields profitable with that much increase.

They have been doing 20% RPK increase of late, and still being very profitable. Many of those new aircraft as you have shown in a round about way will be to replace existing aircraft as well.
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