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Stitch
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Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 4:49 pm

We have heard rumblings of a possible "777 Next Generation" from both airline and Boeing principles to compete with the A350 family.

On the surface, this seems ludicrous, since the A350 will be significantly lighter in structure and will benefit from new materials technology as well as an improved wing and engine. Even if you don't believe the 25% cheaper claims Airbus makes in terms of seat-costs and fuel-burn for the A350 vs. the 777, the A350 will still be measurably better.

And yet... Could Boeing pull it off?

In this discussion - EK: Door Is Still Open To Boeing Despite A350 Deal (by EI321 Nov 17 2007 in Civil Aviation) - Alangirvan posted the following quote from an interview by Flight's Geoffrey Thomas with Boeing's Scot Carson:

Quote:
"Boeing is also working on engine and aerodynamic improvements in the 777-300ER and 777-200LR aircraft," according to Mr Carson.

"We (Boeing and GE) are working on improvements from the GEnx (for the 787) program into the GE90," Carson said.

He also noted that Boeing was fine-tuning the aerodynamics of the aircraft and expected to offer airlines a package that would match the promised seat mile costs of the newly launched A350-1000 years before that aircraft entered service.

In the longer term, Boeing is considering its options for a replacement for the 777 that would possibly enter service in the 2015-2018 time frame."

BlueSky1976 added that if Boeing decides to give 777 a brand new composite wing, it would extend the market life of the 777 family by at least another 20 years.

In that same thread, JoeCanuck postulated:

Quoting JoeCanuck:
If Boeing can indeed improve the 777 performance levels to match the 350, and can keep it cheap enough, why wouldn't airlines buy it? Most of the savings in the 350 will come from the engines. It's definitely in GE's best interest, as well as Boeings.

GE continues to be publicly non-committal on powering the A350, while continuing to extol the virtues of the LR777 and GE90-11xB family available today.



While it does seem unlikely Boeing could match the A350 in performance across-the-board, could they develop a lighter 777 structure and give it a new wing and improved engines and get close?

Al-Li alloys have advanced a great deal since the early 1990's when they were first considered for the 777 and would create a lighter and stronger frame. And techniques like laser welding or friction-stirred welding (FSW) would result in a smoother surface (less rivets) and would reduce labor costs and assembly times. And improved use of composites would help reduce weight even more as well as lower maintenance costs.

The GE90 has been superseded by two generations of GE engines (GP7000 and GEnx), yet a number of the technologies introduced with those two generations can likely be implemented in the GE90, lowering SFC and noise.

A new wing design - even if not produced out of CFRP - would improve field, climb and cruise performance and result in less thrust, noise, and fuel burn then the current 77L and 77W.

If Boeing could lower seat-costs and fuel burn by up to 10% and increase range to 8000nm (matching the A350-1000), it might be the "safe bet" for many existing 777 operators over the A350 and could give Boeing the "breathing room" they need until around 2020 to launch Y3 as a true 777 replacement with a 350 and 400 seater along with an "Special Performance" 300 seater with sufficient range to link any two cities on the globe 365-days a year at nominal payload.

The key, of course, is the money and the time. Even minor updates could be hundreds of millions and going for a significant overhaul will be in the billions. Boeing is still looking at a couple hundred 777 sales even if they do nothing and they can add even more by lowering the price on each sale as the A350's EIS approaches.

And yet, a 777NG can be developed and brought to market much quicker then a 787HGW, to say nothing of a true replacement (Y3). It is based on a design both proven and popular. And it is wider, which allows 10-abreast Economy and 7-abreast Business seating for fitting more passengers in similar physical seat comfort to the A350.


Opinions?
 
pnwtraveler
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 4:58 pm

It wasn't too long ago that somewhere on here someone from Boeing made a statement that incremental improvements to aircraft are a hallmark of Boeing and that they were looking at it for the 777. I have searched and can't find it. Boeing did it with the 747-300 while it was finalizing the 400. It wasn't a huge seller but some airlines took it until the two man cockpit 400 came to market. I think there is room for an advanced 777 before the full blown Y3 is launched. If airlines are asking for something in sufficient quantities they will do it.
 
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 5:00 pm

Noone seems to consider that a A330NG can beat the B787...

But are we all wrong? A330 v 1.0 selling like hot cakes and is there something we all missed? A330 and B777 will all be paid off and can be sold profitable to a low cost.
 
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A

Sun Nov 18, 2007 5:03 pm



Quoting Olle (Reply 2):
Noone seems to consider that a A330NG can beat the B787...

Likely because the airlines themselves didn't think so. And since they're the ones buying the thing...

Anyway, let's not try and make this a debate about the 787. Or another whizzing match about Boeing and Airbus. Please? Let us stay on topic.  pray 
 
airbuske
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 5:10 pm

Even if Boeing manages to drastically improve on the performance of the 777, correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the unit price of a 777 about 1.5 times that of an XWB?
 
olle
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 5:12 pm

>> Anyway, let's not try and make this a debate about the 787.

I agree, but also I consider that if Boeing does not create a 777NG with a new wing and a lot of other huge improvements I consider that the differents between 777NG and the 350 in performance should be similar to the current situation with A330NG and the B787...


It might show that Airbus did something very smart to leave the lowend of the 787 / 767 market and instead concentrate on the 777 market. I am not shure that Boeing predicted this in the start.

Would it not be more smart to make a 787-10 and create a Y3 from 777-300 as the smallest and a 747-8 as the biggest?

How much weight can Boeing take off the 777? will it be enough for making something interesting without invest too much $/€?
 
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 5:13 pm



Quoting Olle (Reply 2):
No one seems to consider that a A330NG can beat the B787...

That's because it can't. The 787 largely obliterates the economics of the A330...

Quoting Olle (Reply 2):
But are we all wrong? A330 v 1.0 selling like hot cakes and is there something we all missed?

No, we're not wrong. The A330 continued to sell because it was a solid aircraft available in the near-term. The same airlines looking for a long-term solution rejected the A350 v1.0 because it wasn't a viable competitor to the 787.

Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
On the surface, this seems ludicrous, since the A350 will be significantly lighter in structure and will benefit from new materials technology as well as an improved wing and engine. Even if you don't believe the 25% cheaper claims Airbus makes in terms of seat-costs and fuel-burn for the A350 vs. the 777, the A350 will still be measurably better.

And yet... Could Boeing pull it off?

Anything could happen, but I don't think it can be done anymore. Whatever "version" of A350 Airbus has reached, I think they've finally got a product that Boeing can't match with a 20 year-old platform anymore.

I think Boeing would be best advised to begin delivery of heavier 787 variants by 2016 at the absolute latests and start a FUD campaign for Y3 in 2009-2010 for a product to enter service in 2018-2020.
 
sh0rtybr0wn
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 5:32 pm

No, the 777 will never compete with the A350.

Figuring out how long to milk 777 sales before devoting massive resources to the Y3 project (777+747 replacement ~ 350-450) is a very important question for boeing.

A year and a half ago it looked like Airbus was in serious trouble, but now that they've got the A350 right, it seems like Boeing might be in trouble.

How will Boeing convince airlines to order their new 777NG when after 2015 everybody is flying new A350s? And will they have the resources to design a CRFP 777 replacement if they decide to do Y1 737RS next? I think if Boeing chooses an all new 737 as their next big project, we wont see a 777 replacement until 2022.

For that reason I hope Boeing really makes the 787-10 (and maybe -11) a near perfect plane in order to be able to keep selling and building widebodies after the 777 stops production.

But even after 2015, could the A350 production be sold out so far in advance that 777s are still selling? Even if they are, I think Boeing should not "improve" the 777, and should just build a new model from the ground up.
 
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 5:54 pm



Quoting Airbuske (Reply 4):
Even if Boeing manages to drastically improve on the performance of the 777, correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the unit price of a 777 about 1.5 times that of an XWB?

The XWB will almost certainly enjoy lower production costs, which will result in a lower list price. And this may very well kill any prospects for a seriously-overhauled "777NG". Boeing has now likely recovered the R&D costs of the current 777 program and therefore only needs to worry about actual production costs and overhead, but that would not be the case with a major overhaul.

Quoting Olle (Reply 5):
It might show that Airbus did something very smart to leave the low-end of the 787 / 767 market and instead concentrate on the 777 market. I am not sure that Boeing predicted this in the start.

When Boeing created the 7E7/787, Airbus' long-term plans were to stay the course with the A330E/A343E and to develop an A345E and A346E to help narrow the performance gap to the 77L and 77W. It was only after the 787 design had been committed to and the original A350 was struggling to find the same level of acceptance ("rejected" is too strong a word since it did have close to 200 orders) that Airbus decided to move up-market with the XWB.

Quoting Olle (Reply 5):
Would it not be more smart to make a 787-10 and create a Y3 from 777-300 as the smallest and a 747-8 as the biggest?

I believe that if Boeing decides to replace, rather then enhance, the 777 in the "near term", they are better off either doing a 787HGW (787-10 and 787-11) or moving to Y3 with 10-11 abreast Y seating and two models around 350 and 400 seats, each. I do not think Boeing will want to scale to around 450 seats because it negates the 747-8I (even if that model has minimal sales prospects) and could infringe upon the 747-8F, which is the model Boeing most likely wants to protect.

Quoting Olle (Reply 5):
How much weight can Boeing take off the 777? (And) will it be enough for making something interesting without invest too much $/€?

That is the $64/€43 question.  Smile

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 6):
Anything could happen, but I don't think it can be done anymore. Whatever "version" of A350 Airbus has reached, I think they've finally got a product that Boeing can't match with a 20 year-old platform anymore.

I think Boeing would be best advised to begin delivery of heavier 787 variants by 2016 at the absolute latests and start a FUD campaign for Y3 in 2009-2010 for a product to enter service in 2018-2020.

I don't see Boeing launching both a 787HGW and Y3 as there would be too much overlap between them, but I do see launching one or the other by the late 2010's.

A very mildly refreshed 777/GE90 would support such a program. Sell the 777 until the 787HGW or Y3 rolls out and then convert it to freighters. It would be interesting to see if Boeing could assemble both the 747 and 777 freighters in Building 40-22, which would free-up Building 40-25 for additional 787 assembly. On the other hand, if 77F production rates are only a few a month, a lot of the space in 40-25 used to hold major 777 sub-assemblies could be used to hold major 787 sub-assemblies to support a quicker 787 final-assembly line in 40-26. If Boeing could get a 787 out the door in two days instead of three, that would support a 33% increase in line rate right there...  scratchchin 
 
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A

Sun Nov 18, 2007 6:09 pm



Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
Even if you don't believe the 25% cheaper claims Airbus makes in terms of seat-costs and fuel-burn for the A350 vs. the 777, the A350 will still be measurably better.

...if Boeing and GE can achieve the numbers they believe, the B77W has some kind of chance...also, I think these numbers would reflect 9-across on the A350-10 and 10-across on the B773ER.....



..that being said, it would be fairly expensive to the changes (i.e.-composite wings, etc) Boeing would make. The plane would probably have to be recertified again also.

Quoting Airbuske (Reply 4):
correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the unit price of a 777 about 1.5 times that of an XWB?

..actually, the A350-1000 and B773ER are closed to being evenly matched in terms of price (I think)..however, given the A350-1000 is a new plane with a very start up (i.e.-development and manufacturing) costs and with Boeing doing extremely well on the B777 program (even the B77W/B77LR/B77F are doing extremely well), Boeing can afford to give a larger discount...that is something which needs to be taken into consideration.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 8):
The XWB will almost certainly enjoy lower production costs, which will result in a lower list price.

....production costs might be lower, but initial (startup) costs are much larger..that is certainly known.....given that launch customers get a nice discount, planes sold "later on the production line" will have to be sold at a higher costs to recuperate investments.....where the converse is true for the B777 program.

All-in-all, I don't see the B77W competing with the A350-1000 in 6-7 years from now...... Sad
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 6:25 pm



Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
He also noted that Boeing was fine-tuning the aerodynamics of the aircraft and expected to offer airlines a package that would match the promised seat mile costs of the newly launched A350-1000 years before that aircraft entered service.

I'd like to see that.
 
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:00 pm



Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
On the surface, this seems ludicrous, since the A350 will be significantly lighter in structure and will benefit from new materials technology as well as an improved wing and engine. Even if you don't believe the 25% cheaper claims Airbus makes in terms of seat-costs and fuel-burn for the A350 vs. the 777, the A350 will still be measurably better.

And yet... Could Boeing pull it off?

Of course they can pull it off. They can probably never match the technical performance of the A350 because of a 20 year technology gap, but airlines don't care about that. They care about cost. Matching the cost of the 777 to the A350 is much much easier, and that's all that's required to stay competitive. Obviously, we should expect the A350 to be more successful if executed per design, but Boeing can continue to sell 777's against the A350 for some time if they want to.

Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
The GE90 has been superseded by two generations of GE engines (GP7000 and GEnx)

It's true that the GE90 has two engines after it. Saying that it's been superseded or that the GP7000 and GEnx are different generations (from the GE90 or from each other) is pretty misleading. Both of the newer engines borrow heavily from the GE90 and are incremental improvements across the board. Fitting those improvements back into the GE90 is just like the Tech Insertion program on the CFM56, and I would fully expect we'll see something like it on the GE90.

Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
And yet, a 777NG can be developed and brought to market much quicker then a 787HGW, to say nothing of a true replacement (Y3).

How do you figure? The changes required for a 777NG are considerably larger than those for a 787HGW.

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 7):
No, the 777 will never compete with the A350.

Sure it will. "Compete" and "win the market share" are totally different things. Only one aircraft can be winning the market, but that doesn't mean you don't have two aircraft competing. The 777 is competing *right now* with the A350...Airbus is obviously pitching the A350 in sales campaigns against the 777 and both aircraft are winning some campaigns. Ergo, they're competing.

Tom.
 
airbuske
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A

Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:00 pm

Okay so I made some rough calculations for my own comparison. I don't claim that they are precise or accurate.

Big version: Width: 872 Height: 478 File size: 115kb


As you can see above, assuming that improvements in engine performance will give the 777NG will have similar fuel burns to the A350 XWB, the 772LR which has almost the same range as the A359 weighs about 20% more. The same deal goes when comparing the 773ER and the A350-1000.

Is it possible? I don't know
 
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:10 pm



Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 7):
it seems like Boeing might be in trouble.

 laughing  Boeing isn't in trouble by any means.

Boeing does face an interesting decision, but it's not one that they need to rush by any means. The 787 and 777 continue to sell very well. Eventually, the A350-1000 will start to take sales from the 777, but to date Airbus has only sold 40 of that model.

I see their choices as being
1 - Develop -10, -11 and HGW variants of the 787 and leave the 748i to battle the A380.
2 - Develop the "basic stretch" -10 and an all-new Y3 in the 350-450 seat range.
3 - Develop the "basic stretch" -10 and go with a 77W "warm-over" to try and battle the bigger A350s till Boeing decides what to do with the 787 and Y3.

In terms of money invested to develop planes, option 1 is likely to be the cheapest overall. However, the HGW versions do still present some challenges, not least around engines. I don't believe the GEnx can grow enough to power these HGW planes. RR could offer a bleedless version of the Trent-XWB, but GE might have to develop a GEnx 1.5. There will likely be quite a few differences between the -8 and the HGW versions (new u/c, new wing, different engines).

An all-new Y3 will be very expensive, and there are plenty who think the market isn't big enough to support it.

Option three might buy Boeing some time, but could be a risky strategy if the warmed 77W isn't good enough to stop airlines switching to the A350.

As I said, they have a decision to make, but they do have quite a bit of time available to ensure they make the best one.
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Stitch
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:16 pm



Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 11):
How do you figure? The changes required for a 777NG are considerably larger than those for a 787HGW.

Yes, but the 777 order book does not extend to 2014-2015. Unless significant numbers of 787-8 and 787-9 orders are switched to 787-10s, Boeing can't offer new 787-10 production slots until around that time.

Now, if Boeing goes for a full-on 737NG style refresh of the 777 where the only thing they keep are the rough fuselage dimensions, then such a plane would take years to develop and market.

But if Boeing and GE can get some "quick wins" that can be streamlined into the next "block" of 77Ls and 77Ws - and maybe even the first "block" of 77Fs - then Boeing might be able to not only make the planes on order for a 2009 delivery better, but secure additional orders in the 2010-2020 time-frame as they work on the 787HGW or Y3.
 
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:37 pm



Quoting Airbuske (Reply 12):
Okay so I made some rough calculations for my own comparison. I don't claim that they are precise or accurate.

Max payload range for the A359/A3510 is not 8100 and 8000nm. Those ranges are range with max pax+bags, not max payload. That changes your chart quite a bit  Wink
 
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:49 pm

>> I do not think Boeing will want to scale to around 450 seats because it negates the 747-8I

I consider that the 747-8I is a dead fish in the water. It might short term replace some 747-400 but with the A350, A380-8 (v 1.0 and soon a upgraded v 1.5?) and A380-9 etc the Y3 should cover 777-300 and up. 777-200 should be covered by 787HGW.

The next question is if 787HGW needs a new wing or if it can have the same wing as 787-8 and 787-9?
 
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:17 pm



Quoting Olle (Reply 16):
he Y3 should cover 777-300 and up

what do you guys mean when you say Y3?!? off topic but i have always wondered!

nitin
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A

Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:28 pm



Quoting Olle (Reply 16):
I consider that the 747-8I is a dead fish in the water.

As do I, but if Boeing builds a brand-new 450 seater that means that the 747-8F becomes a less-effective freighter. Sure, Boeing can hold-off on offering a Y3F, but it will eventually happen and that means the 747-8F will not sell as many units as it could which will lower the variant's RoI.

Quoting Olle (Reply 16):
The next question is if 787HGW needs a new wing or if it can have the same wing as 787-8 and 787-9?

The existing wing can take close to 50t (US) more weight, but Boeing might want to develop a new wing, anyway, that would be more effective and efficient with higher MTOWs.
 
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:30 pm

In the past, Boeing has a very good track record for making new planes out of old airframes. The 747, which is perhaps finally facing obsolescence after 40 years, and ONLY because of the A380, was continually upgraded during its lifetime. A 747-400 has almost nothing in common with a 747-100. Same goes for the 737. There are some airframes that are really meant to last. I think the 777 airframe is a solid one. It's not made of the fanciest materials, but it could easily be upgraded. Changing materials can be easier than changing the whole design. Not every conduit needs to be re-positioned, not every curve re-imagined. It would vastly reduce the development costs and breathe new life into an already excellent product.

Could it compete with the A350? I don't know, because even still, Airbus has been typically tight-lipped about what sort of performance to expect with the A350. And anyone who claims to know probably doesn't.
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:41 pm



Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
But if Boeing and GE can get some "quick wins" that can be streamlined into the next "block" of 77Ls and 77Ws - and maybe even the first "block" of 77F's - then Boeing might be able to not only make the planes on order for a 2009 delivery better, but secure additional orders in the 2010-2020 time-frame as they work on the 787HGW or Y3.

Big version: Width: 445 Height: 297 File size: 114kb



Do you mean like 787's variable camber feature? This picture (from a 2006 FlightInternational article) shows a wind tunnel mock up of a 777 with new lift devices - some sort of single slotted flaps. I recall Boeing saying they were testing it for the Dreamliner, it seemed strange to do it on a 777.
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:44 pm



Quoting Deaphen (Reply 17):
what do you guys mean when you say Y3?!? off topic but i have always wondered!

Boeing did a series of design studies a while back on what a whole new product line would look like. The most well known was called "Yellowstone", which had three airplanes spanning the entire size range: Y1, Y2, and Y3. Y2 is what became the 787. Y3 a theoretical airplane based on 787-like technology that would replace the 777 and 747.

So "Y3" and "Y1" have become shorthand for "777 replacement" and "737 replacement" respectively. This isn't strictly correct, since there were design studies other than Yellowstone and a plane other than Y1 or Y3 might be what actually gets built, but that's a minor semantic detail.

Tom.
 
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 10:23 pm



Quoting Olle (Reply 2):
Noone seems to consider that a A330NG can beat the B787...

But are we all wrong? A330 v 1.0 selling like hot cakes and is there something we all missed? A330 and B777 will all be paid off and can be sold profitable to a low cost.



Quoting Olle (Reply 5):
I agree, but also I consider that if Boeing does not create a 777NG with a new wing and a lot of other huge improvements I consider that the differents between 777NG and the 350 in performance should be similar to the current situation with A330NG and the B787..

One advantage the 787 had was that it was entering a market which significantly greater sales volume. A new design optimized for that market would have development costs spread over a very large number of units. The 350 pax market that the 773ER serves and A350-1000 will serve has inherently lower volume, and thus fewer units to spread costs over. In that type of market a derivative may make sense if it can be developed cheaply. Plus Boeing has the advantage of a favorable exchange rate.

Quoting Olle (Reply 5):
Would it not be more smart to make a 787-10 and create a Y3 from 777-300 as the smallest and a 747-8 as the biggest?

I think a design starting slightly higher than the 773ER and extending to A388 capacity makes most sense, with the higher capacity variants coming sometime after 2020.
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Scipio
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 10:39 pm



Quoting Stitch (Reply 8):
I do not think Boeing will want to scale to around 450 seats because it negates the 747-8I (even if that model has minimal sales prospects) and could infringe upon the 747-8F, which is the model Boeing most likely wants to protect.

I do not think Boeing sees the 747-8 as a multi-decade product. It's more like a stopgap solution. The sensible thing for Boeing seems to be to cover the 300-350 passenger size with 787HGW models and position Y3 in the 350-500 passenger size, replacing the B777-300ER and 747-8 and competing with the A350-1000 from above and with the A380 from below.

Pretty much a kind of plane like Keesje's Ecoliner...

But with Y1 being a necessity in the next ten years and resources needed for the 787HGW, I do not expect Y3 before the end of the next decade at the earliest. Meanwhile, improvements to the 77L and 77W are the way to go.

Scipio.
 
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 11:23 pm



Quoting Deaphen (Reply 17):


Quoting Olle (Reply 16):
he Y3 should cover 777-300 and up

what do you guys mean when you say Y3?!? off topic but i have always wondered!

nitin

Y3 is supposed to be Boeing's answer to the need to replace both the 747 and the 777. The project hasn't been started yet, though there are some who believe the 748i isn't selling well because airlines want Boeing to go to work on the Y3 and give them a fresh new airplane that will replace the 747 altogether. Hope this answers your question.
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Stitch
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 11:26 pm



Quoting Scipio (Reply 23):
I do not think Boeing sees the 747-8 as a multi-decade product. It's more like a stopgap solution.

I think it is more a case of "well, we needed to build the 747-8F anyway, so might as well make a passenger model and see if it sells".

Boeing has consistently said they don't see the 450+ seat market to be a large one, especially large enough to justify their own eleven-figure investment.

Also, unless Boeing does indeed go with two decks (ala the Ecoliner) or a 12-abreast single deck plane (ala the Boeing 763-246C concept), then it is unlikely they will be able to get beyond 400 seats without exceeding 80m. A 65m 10-abreast Y3-100 would seat around 350 and a 75m 10-abreast Y3-200 would seat around 400 in a "standard" Boeing three-class configuration.
 
sh0rtybr0wn
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 11:57 pm



Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 11):
Airbus is obviously pitching the A350 in sales campaigns against the 777 and both aircraft are winning some campaigns. Ergo, they're competing.

Not Fair. When they A350 is in production, no way people will buy the 777. Will the A330 compete against the 787? No. But its selling now because you can get one. Airlines will be topping off A330s and 777 fleets for a while but both planes order books will decline after that.

Quoting Stitch (Reply 14):
But if Boeing and GE can get some "quick wins" that can be streamlined into the next "block" of 77Ls and 77Ws - and maybe even the first "block" of 77Fs - then Boeing might be able to not only make the planes on order for a 2009 delivery better, but secure additional orders in the 2010-2020 time-frame as they work on the 787HGW or Y3.

You know, that kind of talk sounds like the first 350 proposal, and we know where that ended up. I say either do 737 replacement or 777 replacement; but whichever one Boeing does, do it 110% and aim very high.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:03 am



Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 26):
You know, that kind of talk sounds like the first 350 proposal, and we know where that ended up.

Yup. Which is why it might be better for Boeing to just take the couple hundred 777s they're going to win, anyway, and let the A350 build it's foundation and then launch Y3 to bracket it at the top with Y2 (the 787) bracketing it at the bottom and then start squeezing...
 
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:26 am

I am not too convinced about something ..NG

All XXNGs planes failed
767-400 , A340-500-600 , 707 with CFM56 engines , Caravelle12 , first A350 project based on the A330 , TU154M....................except the highly sucessful 737.

If Boeing want to be competitive vs A350 and not to lose market share they have with the 777 , they have to build a very efficiency new plane , or to go ahead with 787-10 or even 11.That's my feeling.
 
EI321
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:36 am



Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
Opinions?

A very well written piece stitch.

My opinion is that this will have the same effect against the A350 that the 'A350MK1' had against the 787.

Bring on the 787HGW!
 
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SEPilot
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:42 am



Quoting Stitch (Reply 27):
Yup. Which is why it might be better for Boeing to just take the couple hundred 777s they're going to win, anyway, and let the A350 build it's foundation and then launch Y3 to bracket it at the top with Y2 (the 787) bracketing it at the bottom and then start squeezing...

I have said pretty much the same on this subject many times. The 777 is dead; it will still enjoy sales until delivery times for the A350 become competitive, and then it will become just like the 767 is now. It is a great plane, and has provided many airlines with spectacular service, but it is time to move on. The same applies to the 748; any attempt to protect it will only cost sales. Boeing did expect to sell a substantial number of 748i's, but that does not appear to be happening; but I believe that they are selling more 748F's than they expected to. They will make money on the project, but if they allow consideration for it to compromise the Y3 design they are being foolish indeed. I believe that Boeing will launch Y1 within the next couple of years, and will launch Y3 as soon as they have the resources available. They will not develop HGW versions of the 787 because that will cut into Y3 territory; this will mean that they will cede the large widebody market to Airbus for a few years but will regain it with a better and more complete lineup. They probably will not develop a direct competitor to the A380, but Y3 should offer considerably better CASM which will marginalize the A380. Anyway, that's what I would do if I were running Boeing.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
BAKJet
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:35 am

I think that the A350 and 777 are competitors.But many airlines have already bought the 777, so it would make sense to buy more 777 so that they would have more fleet commonality. Another thing is that some airlines are loyal to Boeing and some to Airbus. So, I don't think they really need to do too much to make it competitive.

[Edited 2007-11-18 17:36:34]
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:44 am



Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 26):
Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 11):
Airbus is obviously pitching the A350 in sales campaigns against the 777 and both aircraft are winning some campaigns. Ergo, they're competing.

Not Fair. When they A350 is in production, no way people will buy the 777.

Obviously, only time will tell, but it's virtually unheard of for one plane to take 100% of the market when their performance figures are that close. The A350 is not nearly as big a jump over the 777 as the 787 is over the 767.

Tom.
 
sh0rtybr0wn
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:51 am



Quoting SEPilot (Reply 30):
They will not develop HGW versions of the 787 because that will cut into Y3 territory

Well first of all, what do you mean by Y3? Could be 350 / 400 or could be 400 / 500 seats.

Either way, a 330 seat 787-10 or 11 will fit in beautifully with Boeing's mid size widebody offerings, and if done really sweet, it could pick up some new airlines and sell many to existing 787 carriers.

Airlines wouldn't have to choose between the BIG 787 or Y3 because Y3 would start with substantially more seats and go way higher.

So I think the best way to deal with the situation is do what the Irish dude said :

Quoting EI321 (Reply 29):
Bring on the 787HGW!

 
mandala499
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 2:08 am

Airbuske...
Your comparison chart is using things that are different from each other.
At MTOW and Max Payload, you probably can't carry max fuel.
If you carry max fuel, you can carry whatever weight remains to reach MTOW... and then see how far you go.

Just assume the number of seats between the respective versions are the same.
Do your comparison based on MTOW, and compare them for 3000NM to 8000NM for each.
Get the fuel amount and payload comparisons for those missions.
Then you can get a more accurate figure for competition between the two... fuel burn per seat NM or fuel burn per ton kilometer (just use the payload figures).

In the past I suspected a trend in that for aircraft of similar capacity and mission profiles Airbus can give you the lowest cost per mile, Boeing have a higher figure in costs but can give a better revenue potential (330 vs 777 classic case), and therefore on a route margin basis, they're very competitive. Can't compare them on single aspects fairly, gotta compare them on what matters most... it's not who has the lowest cost, but who has the best operating margins. Though I suspect the 350 might beat the 777 in this comparison...

Mandala499
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
sh0rtybr0wn
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 3:02 am



Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 32):
The A350 is not nearly as big a jump over the 777 as the 787 is over the 767.

You really think so?

Whats your take on how much better than the 767 is the 787, and how much better than the 777 is the hypothetical A350XWB?

I thought it was a very similar jump in efficiency because both are composite planes vs. AL.
 
sstsomeday
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 3:29 am

I don't think Boeing should try to milk the 777 to compete with the new-technology 350.

My feeling is they would instead commit to the 787-10, and also get a head start on the replacement for the 737/320 market, which will be huge.

Whereas Airbus has a very healthy order book indeed, I would suggest that their finances do not support them starting another clean sheet aircraft in the near future. 380 investment and delays have taken their toll financially in the short term, and sloe producton rates for the first two years will not help. "Power 8" restructuring will be expensive, and at the moment the 350 is costing them a lot of development money but not bringing in any revenue to speak of.

Boeing, on the other hand, is in a better position to commit to a new design once the 787 is going out the door in numbers, which will be much sooner than the 350.
I come in peace
 
iwok
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 3:54 am



Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
While it does seem unlikely Boeing could match the A350 in performance across-the-board,

I don't think it needs to beat the 350 across the board: just the high end because the 787 has the lower end under control.

Quoting FCKC (Reply 28):
I am not too convinced about something ..NG

How about the 737-NG  confused 

iwok
 
tdscanuck
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 4:05 am



Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 35):
Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 32):
The A350 is not nearly as big a jump over the 777 as the 787 is over the 767.

You really think so?

Yes.

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 35):

Whats your take on how much better than the 767 is the 787, and how much better than the 777 is the hypothetical A350XWB?

787 is supposed to burn 20% less fuel than the 767. I would be very surprised if the difference between the 777 and the A350XWB exceeds 10%, Airbus proclamations notwithstanding. The biggest thing the A350XWB will have over the 777 is engine improvement, but there's no way that will reach 20%. Use of CFRP will provide some weight advantage (and considerable maintenance advantage) but the 777 structure is extremely good (and makes use of quite a bit of CFRP as well).

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 35):

I thought it was a very similar jump in efficiency because both are composite planes vs. AL.

Composites aren't actually that large a contributor to increased fuel efficiency. The biggest gains are in passenger comfort and maintenance cost. They are generally lighter, but it's not as much of a change as you might expect. The 787 is getting the benefit of about 25 years of technology improvement over the 767. The A350XWB only has about 15 years over the current generation 777.

Tom.
 
WingedMigrator
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A

Mon Nov 19, 2007 4:45 am

The A350, if one believes the published performance specs, will burn ~20% less fuel than corresponding 777 models on identical missions. The former is made primarily of composites, the latter primarily of aluminum alloys.

The 787 will burn ~20% less fuel than corresponding A330 models. The former is made primarily of composites, the latter primarily of aluminum alloys.

Given the similarity in the above relationships, one can infer that the "refreshed 777" going against the A350 will meet the same fate as the "refreshed A330" met against the 787. So, for 777NG advocates, the question becomes this: why would the 777NG fare better against the A350 than the A330NG fared against the 787?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 5:15 am



Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 39):
So, for 777NG advocates, the question becomes this: why would the 777NG fare better against the A350 than the A330NG fared against the 787?

When the 787 was 8-abreast and the A350 was 9-abreast, that helped the A350. When Boeing moved to 9-abreast, as well, that is when the A350 really started to stumble. The 777NG would still offer 10-abreast in Y, as well as 7-abreast in C/J.

Again, the point of the 777NG would not to be to go head-to-head with the A350 and win a significant number of those RFPs. It would be to win more RFPs closer to 2013 then the "baseline" 777 would, as well as win enough past 2013 to keep current Boeing customers "in the family" until Y3 could be delivered in the late 2010s.
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 6:46 am



Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 39):

The greatest contributor to those gains were the engines. Even Airbus has stated that there are not significant weight savings in going to CFRP. There are many benefits but weight isn't the major one.

Back when the original 350 was to use the same engines as the 787, it would have had similar efficiencies. The problem that EK and others had with it was that it was too small and, I believe, short ranged. Some brainiac pointed out that you could put 9 across in a 787 so everybody wanted that option in the 350 too. That's why the new 350 is called the XWB.
What the...?
 
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scbriml
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 7:50 am

Boeing does have another weapon that it can use to make the existing 777 models more attractive vs. the A350. They can simply slash the price. While this strategy is almost "admitting defeat", it would likely gain the 777 some additional sales over the next five years.

Of course, it doesn't do anything for the longer-term competitivness of the 777 against the A350, but it would buy Boeing more time just when they need it.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Mir
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 8:28 am



Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 11):
Airbus is obviously pitching the A350 in sales campaigns against the 777 and both aircraft are winning some campaigns. Ergo, they're competing.

I suspect that the sales that the 777 is getting over the 350 are similar to the sales that the 330 is getting over the 787, with some airlines deciding that they're better off having a decently economical plane now than a more economical plane several years down the line.

Delivery timeline, while certainly important, is about the only thing the 777 has going for it over the 350.

-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
 
slz396
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 8:37 am



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 42):
Boeing does have another weapon that it can use to make the existing 777 models more attractive vs. the A350. They can simply slash the price.

How ironic...

Are we allowed to make the claim "they're only selling because they're giving them away for free!" then, a remark which has been thrown all too easily to Airbus in the past by some Boeing fan-boys?
 stirthepot 

Back to topic:

The last minute decision from Airbus NOT to go ahead with the original A330-based A350 and NOT to fight head on with the 787 after all, but rather come with a larger all new plane aiming right in between the 787 and 777 proofs to be a very good one and gives Boeing a very very though nut to crack, putting them in a catch 22 situation:

1- the XWB has cut off all cheap growth potential of the 787 the way Boeing had planned it.
Still remember the reassured statements of Boeing on just how stellar a stretched 787, dubbed the 787-10, would be? Currently you don't hear of them no more, do you? That's because they are trying to figure out just how and at what price they can come with a larger model of the 787 which can be competitive to the A350.

2- the XWB has forced Boeing to consider ending the live of the 777 more than a decade sooner than it had planned, something which is extremely inconvenient, as Boeing wanted to focus on their 737 replacement during that time period.

The XWB definitely is the biggest party spoiler for Boeing EVER, as it basically shattered a very carefully drafted plan to introduce a fully new product line in a sequence which would have put each of the 3 new products in the lead position at a time when the predecessor was nearing the natural end of its life, while letting the successful products live through their entire usefull life. It now seems inevitable that this will not be the case for several Boeing products and that the outcome of it all will be that Boeing will have to give up its dominance in the market segment of planes above roughly 300 seats!
 
flipdewaf
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 9:10 am



Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 39):
Given the similarity in the above relationships, one can infer that the "refreshed 777" going against the A350 will meet the same fate as the "refreshed A330" met against the 787. So, for 777NG advocates, the question becomes this: why would the 777NG fare better against the A350 than the A330NG fared against the 787?

I agree with that one there, what is it that boeing will be able to do with the 777NG that airbus couldnt do with the A350 original? you cant just "make it out of cfrp" instead because its not as easy as that. I think the airlines would say the same thing they did with the A350 and it will simply not cut the mustard. The way I see it is that If boeing develop Y3 then the Y1 market is going to be left open to airbus or boeing can make Y1 now and leave the 777 to live out its life and try and get Y1 up and running with Y3 coming aaround 2018~2020.

Fred
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zeke
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 11:58 am



Quoting Stitch (Thread starter):
Opinions?

I think a 773ER update could be competitive over 3000-6500 nm, but the way forward I would think would be a hybrid material, not to go composite. Hybrids are lighter and stronger than composites, easier to manufacture, with similar fatigue properties, and more importantly on an aircraft that has been designed with a traditional AL structure, easier and cheaper to substitute. I would image that GEnx engine technology will creep into the GE90 and GP7200 as they have similar beginnings improving the TSFC.

I dont think an updated 772LR or 772F will be competitive, mainly on the cost front. Nor do I see a 773ER being competitive over 8000 nm, the amount of extra fuel they would need to carry for the additional block fuel flow, as well as airframe would be too prohibitive in my view over that distance.

Quoting Tdscanuck (Reply 38):
The biggest thing the A350XWB will have over the 777 is engine improvement, but there's no way that will reach 20%. Use of CFRP will provide some weight advantage (and considerable maintenance advantage) but the 777 structure is extremely good (and makes use of quite a bit of CFRP as well).

The 777 currently only have about 10% composite use, 330 has over 20%, to structurally "catch up" with the A350XWB would require about a 40% increase in advanced materials on the 777, the 777 would also need to improve the aerodynamic package.

Quoting WingedMigrator (Reply 39):
The A350, if one believes the published performance specs, will burn ~20% less fuel than corresponding 777 models on identical missions. The former is made primarily of composites, the latter primarily of aluminum alloys.

The 787 will burn ~20% less fuel than corresponding A330 models. The former is made primarily of composites, the latter primarily of aluminum alloys.

The 789 will burn about 15% less fuel than an A332 with the same number of passengers onboard in 3 class config (250-260 pax) over about 6000 nm, the 763ER will burn about the same about of block fuel as the 789, but has about 50 less pax, or about 3.5t less payload.

The 789 does this over the 332 by a lower TSFC, meaning lower block fuel, and lower TOW, with similar OEW. The A350XWB will have a significantly lower OEW/TOW and lower TSFC than the 773ER. In my view the best gains for the 777 would be to make it a little longer and improve the TSFC for the same OEW.

But if Airbus was to make the obvious counter move adding a further stretched A350-1000 ??? by 2.9 m or 4.35 m would allow for 4 or 6 more LD3s as well as more pax than a 773QRXNG.
We are addicted to our thoughts. We cannot change anything if we cannot change our thinking – Santosh Kalwar
 
JoeCanuck
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A

Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:16 pm

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 44):
The XWB definitely is the biggest party spoiler for Boeing EVER, as it basically shattered a very carefully drafted plan to introduce a fully new product line in a sequence which would have put each of the 3 new products in the lead position at a time when the predecessor was nearing the natural end of its life, while letting the successful products live through their entire usefull life. It now seems inevitable that this will not be the case for several Boeing products and that the outcome of it all will be that Boeing will have to give up its dominance in the market segment of planes above roughly 300 seats!

You are such a silly rabbit...so darned gleeful whenever you can create another, "The Death of Boeing is Nigh", post. So childlike in your misguided innocence, no matter that you have nothing more than vitriol from which to draw your conclusions. Nothing is inevitable except death. All else is speculation...no matter how much you may wish it.

[Edited 2007-11-19 05:21:53]
What the...?
 
jacobin777
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A

Mon Nov 19, 2007 2:09 pm



Quoting Slz396 (Reply 44):

2- the XWB has forced Boeing to consider ending the live of the 777 more than a decade sooner than it had planned,

...after the Boeing 777 has been in production for 20 years??

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 44):
The XWB definitely is the biggest party spoiler for Boeing EVER

..after it has sold over 1100 frames??

Quoting Zeke (Reply 46):

But if Airbus was to make the obvious counter move adding a further stretched A350-1000 ??? by 2.9 m or 4.35 m would allow for 4 or 6 more LD3s as well as more pax than a 773QRXNG.

 checkmark ...given the size of the A350 wings, I expect to eventually see an A350-1100....operating economics on it would be fantastic. It would be even larger than the largest B787 (a hypothetical -11) but I do think that might eat into A380/B748 sales....

Quoting JoeCanuck (Reply 47):
You are such a silly rabbit...so darned gleeful whenever you can create another, "The Death of Boeing is Nigh", post. So childlike in your misguided innocence

I don't think its "misguided innocence", I think its just plain "misguided"... Wink
"Up the Irons!"
 
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seabosdca
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RE: Can Boeing Make The 777 Competitive With The A350?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 2:29 pm



Quoting Slz396 (Reply 44):
1- the XWB has cut off all cheap growth potential of the 787 the way Boeing had planned it.
Still remember the reassured statements of Boeing on just how stellar a stretched 787, dubbed the 787-10, would be? Currently you don't hear of them no more, do you? That's because they are trying to figure out just how and at what price they can come with a larger model of the 787 which can be competitive to the A350.

This is absurd. I don't normally mind informed A vs. B debate -- we learn a lot from it -- but your hyperbole and smug tone are often really grating.

Boeing has never trumpeted the 787-10. All we've had from Boeing are occasional statements that it will happen but is still being defined.

A non-HGW 787-10 and the A350-900 would be different aircraft for different markets. Your comparison is just as if I compared an A330-300 to a 777-200ER and complained the A330-300 wasn't competitive. The 787-10 would be considerably lighter, with lower thrust and less range, but better efficiency on those missions it is capable of performing, than an A350-900. WingedMigrator's charts demonstrate this if you don't believe me, and show that the 787-10, just like the A330-300 in its day, will be a giant-killer in seat cost terms. Different aircraft for different missions.

I'm wondering something else about a potential 777NG, though. Would it be possible for Boeing to make the walls just a couple inches thinner on each side, in order to allow for 17.2" 10-abreast seating? If Boeing could add just enough space to make the 777NG a true 10-abreast aircraft for full-service carriers, that would have a dramatic effect on the aircraft's economics even before any other changes. Too bad for pax, but that's what you get for singlemindedly focusing on price...  tongue 

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