LAXDESI
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AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 6:30 pm

AI to convert all Boeing 747-400s into cargo freighters, and order either A380 or B748 within next six months for deliveries in 2011-2016.

No indication as to how many will be ordered, but recent news report indicate about 12 A388s--if B748, then 16 would be the equivalent number in capacity.

If they go Airbus, I wonder if they would consider the A389 or A388R. A388R would be perfect for BLR-SFO, BOM/DEL-JFK/EWR non-stops.

I am sure Boeing will be extremely aggressive, and could bag the order by offering an attractive package on 748I/748F given AI's decision to enter air cargo business with a dedicated freighter fleet.

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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 6:35 pm

I think AI will go with 748 but I could be wrong!
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LAXDESI
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 6:45 pm



Quoting BlrBird (Reply 1):
I think AI will go with 748 but I could be wrong!

I think and hope so too. 748s will most likely have the 787 GenX engines leading to commonality of engines, and therefore lower maintenance costs--AI has 28 787s on order.
 
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scbriml
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 6:45 pm



Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
I wonder if they would consider the A389 or A388R

Since neither of these planes are offered by Airbus, they'd struggle to buy them.

Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
I am sure Boeing will be extremely aggressive, and could bag the order by offering an attractive package on 748I/748F given AI's decision to enter air cargo business with a dedicated freighter fleet.

Boeing has not been aggressive enough so far to win any additional 748i orders since LH selected it. The piece says nothing about them buying new-build freighters, just converting their existing 744s. They're very unlikely to be buying 748fs, so Boeing will have no leverage there.

Quoting BlrBird (Reply 1):
I think AI will go with 748 but I could be wrong!

Well, that covers all the bases!  wink 

I think AI will be another new A380 customer.
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 6:46 pm

I think AI is already preparing some pilots.  Big grin

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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Mon

Sun Nov 18, 2007 6:51 pm

So does AI think that they have miraculously shed all the red tape and the oversight of umpteen committees of "empowered groups of ministers" and all the political wrangling so that they can place an order within six months? Optimism at its best! That being said, it may be that Thulasidas is determined, on a personal level, to get this accomplished on his watch - before he retires. Perhaps this may help the process along.
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:04 pm



Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
AI to convert all Boeing 747-400s into cargo freighters, and order either A380 or B748 within next six months for deliveries in 2011-2016.

I thought all the A-380 production slots are taken up to 2013. Is that not true? If it is, then the only logical choice is the B-747-8i.
 
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Stitch
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:10 pm



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 3):
I think AI will be another new A380 customer.

Agreed.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 6):
I thought all the A-380 production slots are taken up to 2013.

Airbus has enough orders to fill every production slot through July 2013, but that does not mean that every production slot is filled through that date. Deferments, planned deliveries post 2013, and such could open up slots in 2011.

ILFC also has 10 on order, though the first one has been deferred until 2013 so it would not be an option prior to that.
 
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:14 pm



Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
No indication as to how many will be ordered, but recent news report indicate about 12 A388s--if B748, then 16 would be the equivalent number in capacity.

??

That's not true from a passenger or cargo capacity comparison. further, that is making the assumption that AI needs "x" number of seats, not "y" number of VLAs.

I think AI has a good chance at the A380, but by keeping the 744s and buying the GE787s, there is a case for engine and crew commonality with the 748I instead.
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:35 pm



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 3):
I think AI will be another new A380 customer.

- I'll agree with that, would make a good choice with they need a VLA.
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 7:36 pm

So whats all the problems AI having lately, 5 planes grounded due to mechanic problems?

[Edited 2007-11-18 11:36:42]
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deaphen
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:09 pm

Its my own information, but i can assure you that there will be an order for ten or more A380'a. Probably timed with Sarkozy'z visit to India early next year.  Wink

You can call it insider information.

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LAXDESI
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:15 pm



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 3):
Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
I wonder if they would consider the A389 or A388R

Since neither of these planes are offered by Airbus, they'd struggle to buy them.

I think Airbus is considering A389 with an EIS of 2015(there is a thread about it). AI's desired delivery schedule runs from 2011 to 2016, which makes consideration of A389 likely--if Airbus offers it.
 
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:18 pm



Quoting Deaphen (Reply 11):
Its my own information, but i can assure you that there will be an order for ten or more A380'a. Probably timed with Sarkozy'z visit to India early next year.

You can call it insider information.

regards
nitin

Brilliant !! Will be cool to see all those ''Palace'' windows. Cant wait to see that cabin interior !! It will really be like an Indian palace .
 bigthumbsup 
 
LAXDESI
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:39 pm

From a post on Indian Aviation thread:
big Boeing presntation planned at AI CMD's office for 747-8 and addtional 20 777s.....
 
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Stitch
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Mon

Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:52 pm

Quoting Deaphen (Reply 11):
Its my own information, but i can assure you that there will be an order for ten or more A380's.



Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 14):
From a post on Indian Aviation thread: big Boeing presentation planned at AI CMD's office for 747-8 and additional 20 777s...

Maybe AI is going to do a split-order?

Pick up five 747-8Is to replace their three 747-300s and one 747-400M and then order 10 A380s to replace their 747-400s?

Or 15 747-8's to replace their existing 747 fleet and then 10 A380-800s to launch new routes? AI could schedule the A388 deliveries for the tail end of the 2010s.

But with 12 77Ws and 3 77Ls left to deliver, if they add another 20, would they need the 747-8 or A380-800? They could replace their 747 fleet with those plus have extras...

Plus Wiki says the 77Ws will replace the 747-300s and AI is refurbishing the 747-400s, which sounds like they tend to keep them...

[Edited 2007-11-18 12:55:33]
 
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HAWK21M
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:54 pm

I feel the B748i would get the nos unless The Infrastructure catches up to consider the A380.
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:01 pm

Where can AI take a380s? and where do they currently take their current 747s could it be possible they are gearing up for expansion?
 
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:04 pm

I hope for a 748i order, but I suspect it will be an A380 order. Just a guess based on the massive expansion in Indian aviation generally.


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mk777
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:08 pm

I think AI needs to launch new routes, first, with their LR's and 77W's which they have begun inducting in their fleet. So far, besides the NY region in N. America, i haven't seen them announce any new routes with their new equipment.

I guess they could replace B744 with A388 on LAX, ORD and EWR (does EWR now see the 777?) but where else are they going to fly besides remaining stuck to the NY region???

All i am saying is there has to be strategy before just buying 20 or so planes!!!!
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:17 pm

I could see them flying A380 to SIN, SYD, LHR at least.

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KennyK
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:28 pm

Don't Kingfisher have 5 A380s on order ? So why would AI go for second fiddle with 748s especially with Emirates soon to be flying in and out of many major Indian cities within the next couple of years ?
 
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:37 pm



Quoting LAXDESI (Reply 12):
I think Airbus is considering A389 with an EIS of 2015(there is a thread about it).

Yes, but Leahy was talking about project go-ahead in 2010. So if AI wants to place an order in early 2008, the -900 is not an option.
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ikramerica
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:40 pm



Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
Pick up five 747-8Is to replace their three 747-300s and one 747-400M and then order 10 A380s to replace their 747-400s?

??

AI only flies 9 747s as capacity aircraft right now.

The other 3 are combies, with under 300 seats. Their 772s hold more pax. The 77Ws hold way more.

Thus they only need to replace 9 VLAs here. Yes, they want to grow, but the idea that they would buy 16 748I or even 12 A380 all at once makes no sense to me, not when they have a bunch of 77Ws on order with more cargo space than either, and which they are outfitting to hold 340+ pax, already their second largest plane.

I could see them with an initial order of 6 A380s or 6 748I and some additional other planes like 787-9 or 77W (or even A350, but it seems their timeframe is to start deliveries pre-A350 EIS).
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:40 pm



Quoting KennyK (Reply 21):
Don't Kingfisher have 5 A380s on order ? So why would AI go for second fiddle with 748s especially with Emirates soon to be flying in and out of many major Indian cities within the next couple of years ?

I guess carriers which order the B748 will be "second fiddle'" and if carriers don't order either will be "third fiddle"... sarcastic 
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LAXDESI
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Sun Nov 18, 2007 10:55 pm



Quoting Mk777 (Reply 19):
guess they could replace B744 with A388 on LAX, ORD and EWR (does EWR now see the 777?) but where else are they going to fly besides remaining stuck to the NY region???

It's not clear to me if A388s(or B748s) will be primarily used to operate non-stop India-NA or India-MUC-NA one-stop flights.

Non-stops to SFO and LAX will not be possible without a significant payload penalty. That leaves only JFK, EWR, ORD, and IAD--four large Indian population centres--as possible non-stop markets. By the time either aircraft arrives, AI would have gained a lot of valuable experience on their non-stops to JFK on 777s.

One-stops via MUC will provide AI the ability to carry a full payload, and generate additional cargo revenues which will compliment its decision to start a cargo airline.
 
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:18 am



Quoting OA260 (Reply 13):
Will be cool to see all those ''Palace'' windows. Cant wait to see that cabin interior !! It will really be like an Indian palace

You mean, it will be a flying indian palace  Wink
Only, will the have palace windows on the upper deck, too?

Cheers

A350
 
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:19 am



Quoting KennyK (Reply 21):
Don't Kingfisher have 5 A380s on order ? So why would AI go for second fiddle with 748s

I highly doubt the majority of passengers care what type of aircraft they are on. AI could very well go for either aircraft, but I doubt they will choose it based on what aircraft Kingfisher will be operating a few years from now.

How many Indian airports can handle (effieciently) the A380? When Airbus brought it, was there a lot of trouble or was it business as usual?
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:27 am



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 3):
Boeing has not been aggressive enough so far to win any additional 748i orders since LH selected it. The piece says nothing about them buying new-build freighters, just converting their existing 744s. They're very unlikely to be buying 748fs, so Boeing will have no leverage there.

How would you know this unless you are in on the negotiations? You are probably right though. I could see the A380 being the leading freighter in the future if they design a way to load and unload the plane from the front like the 747F.
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Stitch
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:08 am



Quoting Brilondon (Reply 28):
I could see the A380 being the leading freighter in the future if they design a way to load and unload the plane from the front like the 747F.

Which, alas, they cannot.

The A380-800F will likely fly and will likely find a home with non-package cargo carriers, but it might not be until the late 2010's and it will require a not-insignificant amount of updating in order to match the cargo density values of the 747F series. But if they can lighten the MEW and strengthen the floors to push payload density equal or better then the 747F and total payload into the 175-180t range, then it should be compelling enough over the 748F's 140t and 744BCF's 113t payload to justify the infrastructure costs needed to utilize it.
 
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:58 am

The tide is currently running behind the A380 and not the 748i. Of course, that could be a good reason for Boeing to make AI an offer they can't refuse but, somehow, I don't think they will. If Boeing can keep the 747 line running quite merrily with profitable 748F orders (and they obviously can) then it's not clear why they would sell AI (or anyone) 748is at or near cost. I'm beginning to think that Boeing don't want 748i sales badly enough to do whatever it takes to get them.

Put AI down for a dozen A380s would be my guess.
 
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 2:03 am

What is the status of DEL-JFK. Will it still be going nonstop in 2/08? Will LHR-JFK remaing, giving AI 3 daily flights at JFK?
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 2:17 am

It will be the A380 hands down, the 748i just doesn't offer any advantage for AI that the A380 would, especially in terms of capacity for future growth, not to mention the fact that many of their competitors will be operating the A380, the cant afford to go with the "poor man's" 380. It should be another blow to the 748i program. If they do get the A380,as they likely will, it could also open the door for future Airbus orders, taking away a long time predominantly boeing customer. The 748i just does not fill the niche AI needs; barely larger than the 777/350, and no where near the A380, doesn't leave room for expansion. Too bad about the 744's being converted to garbage scows (aka freighter) though...  Sad hope the passenger versions presently in the fleet dont go away soon, i'd love to fly on them one day.
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 2:57 am

This should help alleviate Boeing's timetables for 748 production, considering they delayed it 6 months (IIRC) to finish out 744 production.
 
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 4:36 am



Quoting A350 (Reply 26):
You mean, it will be a flying indian palace Wink
Only, will the have palace windows on the upper deck, too?

They put the palace windows on the upper deck of the 744 so I guess they would on the A380.

Quoting JRDC930 (Reply 32):
Too bad about the 744's being converted to garbage scows (aka freighter) though... Sad hope the passenger versions presently in the fleet dont go away soon, i'd love to fly on them one day.

Consider yourself lucky if you don't get a chance to travel on an AI 744. They're in pretty bad shape...unless you get the one that they refurbished but it doesn't take long for them to get bad again.
 
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 4:51 am



Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
AI to convert all Boeing 747-400s into cargo freighters

Great idea  Smile

Quoting LAXDESI (Thread starter):
Boeing will be extremely aggressive, and could bag the order by offering an attractive package on 748I/748F given AI's decision to enter air cargo business with a dedicated freighter fleet.

To make it more attractive, Boeing should offer AI a package which includes buying back their B 744s as part of AI's order for B 748Is and B 748Fs which will ultimately result in the B 744Fs being replaced by new B 748Fs.

Also I do not think that AI can fill up even 75% of an A 380 year round if they flew daily nonstop from BOM or DEL to any U.S. East Coast city. The only way I feel AI is do this if they make a hub in the UK (MAN) for onward flights to USA as then the capacity of the A 380 can deployed effectively for 2 different market segments which see high density demand to/from India.

At the end of the day though, I feel Air India will order the A 380 for prestige reasons largely in order to stay competitive with EK and the EU carriers who will be using the A 380 to BOM & DEL in the future. However, to keep everyone happy, a few B 777s too will also be ordered  Wink
 
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 8:43 am



Quoting Brilondon (Reply 28):
How would you know this unless you are in on the negotiations?

I don't "know" and I'm certainly not "in on the negotiations", but it can be reasonably surmised given the lack of success of the 748i vs. A380 when they are competing for VLA orders. Boeing is clearly not making airlines "offers they can't refuse".
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Gr8Circle
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 2:27 pm



Quoting Stitch (Reply 15):
Pick up five 747-8Is to replace their three 747-300s and

AI have only 2 owned 743 combis.....in addition, they have one leased 744 combi..that makes three combis in all.... smile 
 
Flighty
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 3:05 pm

The A380 is mainly seen battling out the premium markets.

For AI to order the A380 would signal the beginning of the A380 developing-country phenomenon (with 600 seats or so).

It could happen, but a 440 pax 748I could happen just as easily. And there, AI is not paying for a full upper deck that specializes in premium products, which they don't need at the moment (AI is no SQ).
 
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 3:15 pm



Quoting Flighty (Reply 38):
which they don't need at the moment (AI is no SQ).

While I think this is true beyond doubt, the SQ is 12/60/399. I can see AI filling a A380, but remember with nothing like a FSuite that SQ offers. Witht their own seats, I can see them offering and filling the same config. Remember, they are *A and could possibly use UA/US/AC as feeders into JFK to go onto India.

The other option would be 60/??Y.

Am I alone thinking that?

Dave
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 3:18 pm

Air India will buy the A380 since every major Asian and European airline is buying them. At some point most of these airline will fly them to India since the seat demand is so great. Emirates will invade India with their high-density A380 will 700 plus seats to feed the Dubai hub. Given the slot constrains in the UK, especially at LHR, Air India would be wise to buy the whale jet. The 748 being is to close in size to the 777-300ER in AI's fleet.
 
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 3:56 pm



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 36):

I don't "know" and I'm certainly not "in on the negotiations", but it can be reasonably surmised given the lack of success of the 748i vs. A380 when they are competing for VLA orders. Boeing is clearly not making airlines "offers they can't refuse".

While it's impossible to refute that the 748i isn't pulling in orders left and right, it's also not a real argument to say that it's losing out big-time to the A380. As far as I know it as only lost one head-to-head battle. All other confirmed A380 orders since the launch of the 748i have been follow on orders. So I'm sorry, to say that Boeing isn't making offers airlines "can't refuse" is frankly a cheap point to score. We have little history to go on here. It's of little or no surprise that Boeing has not accumulated orders with many of the airlines that placed A380 orders previously. Only time will tell, but so far, not enough time has passed to see enough head-to-head orders go to the A380. One such order to date does not constitute a pattern.

Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 40):
Air India will buy the A380 since every major Asian and European airline is buying them.

While this logic seems to make some sense now, given the recent hype, I highly doubt that in the end most airlines will buy the A380 simply to keep up with the Joneses. The decision to buy an aircraft has many, many areas of consideration, and ultimately, the airline will usually buy what makes sense to them economically and strategically.

None of this is to say that I think the A380 won't be the aircraft of choice. Frankly, I think its odds are very good, but I don't think that discussions can be framed around the premise that the 747-8i is a marketplace loser. Yes, it doesn't have a huge backlog, but it also hasn't seen too much battle in the war of the RFP. We'll see where it ends up in five years. Until then, we can only go one acquisition at a time.
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 4:23 pm



Quoting Jfk777 (Reply 40):
The 748 being is to close in size to the 777-300ER in AI's fleet.

Very true. All right, I admit, the A380 has the upper hand given that AI is a 773ER operator. Instead of a 748 they could just get more 773ERs.
 
Gr8Circle
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 5:06 pm



Quoting Flighty (Reply 38):
For AI to order the A380 would signal the beginning of the A380 developing-country phenomenon

Hasn't TG ordered the 380? I would classify Thailand as a 'developing country' ......
 
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 5:38 pm



Quoting Flighty (Reply 42):
Very true. All right, I admit, the A380 has the upper hand given that AI is a 773ER operator. Instead of a 748 they could just get more 773ERs.

Boeing's scheduled presentation to AI is for 748I and 20 777s, for deliveries in 2011-2016.

AI should hold off on ordering A380 or B748 until they have had a chance to see how the proposed MUC hub and Star alliance membership works out.

If the orders for VLA is for one-stop operations to NA through MUC alone, then A380 may be the right choice; if it is for one-stop NA operations through multiple Euro cities(LHR, CDG) B748 may be the right size.

As for using the VLAs for non-stop service on India-NA east coast, why not wait a year and see if its non-stop BOM/DEL-JFK service on B777s can be profitable. If B777s with 238 seats can not be profitable, it is unlikely that AI will figure out a way to make A380/B748 profitable on BOM/DEL-JFK.
 
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 5:49 pm



Quoting Jtdieffen (Reply 41):
So I'm sorry, to say that Boeing isn't making offers airlines "can't refuse" is frankly a cheap point to score.

I'm not scoring points, just responding to the often written claim "Boeing will make them an offer they can't refuse!" or words to that effect (see opening post for an example). Even where the 748i has been pitched to airines when it isn't in competition with the A380, it hasn't won orders. Clearly, Boeing is not prepared to offer the 748i at give-away prices. It's not a bad thing, and certainly not a criticism of Boeing by me. I'm just offering a different viewpoint to the often aired one that Boeing can make, or does make, "great offers" to airlines on the 748i.

Quoting Jtdieffen (Reply 41):
We have little history to go on here.

Not quite true. Since the A380 was launched Boeing has won no 744 pax orders from new customers (just a few top-ups) and their only 748i airline customer to date had already ordered the A380.

Quoting Jtdieffen (Reply 41):
One such order to date does not constitute a pattern.

If you believe BA is the only airline where the 748i has competed with the A380, then Boeing's sales team is clearly not working hard enough. It was also the contest that many believed was a guaranteed win for the 748i given BA's history and very large 744 fleet. If the 748i can't win there, where can it win?
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 6:34 pm



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 45):
It was also the contest that many believed was a guaranteed win for the 748i given BA's history and very large 744 fleet. If the 748i can't win there, where can it win?

An excellent point. Many airlines have been evaluating the 748i and the A380 head on, and while no decisions have been made, one can see that they are leaning toward the A380, just from minor industry leaks and from the fact that these airlines NEED growth opportunities which the 748i doesn't offer (just too similar to the 777). this will be a great year for the A380, and confirm the fact that no niche exists for the 748i. AI will simply be another airline that confirms this fact. Virtually every airline considering the 748i will have to compete with the A380, in both capacity, cost, and inflight product; and im sorry to say the 748i just doesn't allow for much flexibility as the "poor man's" Airbus. I haven't the foggiest idea why LH need such an aircraft with little or no niche.
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 6:51 pm



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 45):
Not quite true. Since the A380 was launched Boeing has won no 744 pax orders from new customers (just a few top-ups) and their only 748i airline customer to date had already ordered the A380.

We're talking about the 748, not the 744. The 748i has been on offer since November 2005. In that time the only non-top up order for the A380 has been British Airways.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 45):
If you believe BA is the only airline where the 748i has competed with the A380, then Boeing's sales team is clearly not working hard enough. It was also the contest that many believed was a guaranteed win for the 748i given BA's history and very large 744 fleet. If the 748i can't win there, where can it win?

I'm not saying that the 748i hasn't been in the running anywhere, but again, BA is really the only "competition" between the two to-date. All other A380 orders have been follow-up orders. It's naturally difficult for the 748i to win orders with airlines that have already committed elsewhere. For airlines that have thus far committed to neither plane, it is still anyone's guess as to which way the orders go. The BA is the first true win for the A380 over the 748i. I expect some airlines will operate both, many neither, some the A380, and some the 748i.

I don't think it's fair to say that if it can't find a home at BA, then it can't find a home anywhere. Frankly, I think Lufthansa was one of the last airlines I expected an order from, but they did. The two, though representative of their respective company's VLA offering, are still very different aircraft. The A380 does not solve all the world's problems. The 748i is a perfectly viable model and presents some benefits over the A380.

Ultimately, on the broad conversation of the 748i, I think that it will truly come down to real-world performance. If they can make it perform better than its targets, I believe we will see a fairly large number of follow-ons. If not, the orders will be limited.
Regards! JDief
 
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 8:39 pm



Quoting Jtdieffen (Reply 47):
We're talking about the 748, not the 744. The 748i has been on offer since November 2005.

I'm just pointing out that against the A380, Boeing is struggling to sell planes, whether it's the old 744 or the new 748i.

Quoting Jtdieffen (Reply 47):
In that time the only non-top up order for the A380 has been British Airways.

British Airways (12), Grupo Marsans (4), Al Jaber Aviation (2) have all signed MOUs or LOIs, with the first two very likely to be firm before the end of the year. From everything I'm hearing, you'll be able to add Air India and All-Nippon to that list in the next few months. wink 
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RE: AI To Place A380 Or B748 Order In Next Six Months

Mon Nov 19, 2007 9:15 pm



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 48):
I'm just pointing out that against the A380, Boeing is struggling to sell planes, whether it's the old 744 or the new 748i.

I guess I just don't see the 744 as relevant to the the discussion. It makes it sound like it's a new aircraft. The 744's demise was brought on by a several different aircraft after a superb run. The A340-600, 777-300ER, and A380 have all contributed to the end of the 747-400. The discussion in this case is focused around the argument that Boeing has struggled to sell the 748i against the A380. I am not at all disagreeing that we may well someday look back and say that, but what I am saying is that we don't have many examples that the A380 is a cold-blooded Intercontinental killer. The history just isn't there.

Quoting Scbriml (Reply 48):
British Airways (12), Grupo Marsans (4), Al Jaber Aviation (2) have all signed MOUs or LOIs, with the first two very likely to be firm before the end of the year. From everything I'm hearing, you'll be able to add Air India and All-Nippon to that list in the next few months.

Okay, first off, it's more than possible that both with pick up the A380, but it's not a given yet, so it's not fair to count them until the deals are signed, no matter how likely they may be. If we look at orders for the A380 vs 748i as a new type for the purchasing airline, the 748i has still outsold the A380 by 2 frames since its launch(according to your above figures). Also, if we want to talk about VIP aircraft, the 747-8i has four (or five?) on the books over two years. The Al Jaber aircraft are anything but firm at this point as John Leahy points out in the official press release:

“The letter of interest for the A380 is very preliminary at the present time,” says John Leahy, Chief Operating Officer, Customers. “But we trust that it could result in a new A380 VIP customer over the next few months.”

I'm not trying to question the world-dominating success of the A380. I just think that many fail to put the order books into perspective with each other. You can make all the arguments you want that it's a slow seller, but I'm just not sure it's appropriate to write it off as dead because of the A380 simply crushes it in marketplace.
Regards! JDief