hnl-jack
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When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:03 pm

At the current time there is enough traffic to support non-stop service at least five days a week between either LON or FRA and HNL. Germany and England together provide sufficent numbers to make the venture worthwhile. With the advent of the 772ER the aircaft is certainly there to fly the route over the pole.
 
JRadier
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:14 pm

Traffic is one thing, yield is another. HNL is mainly vacation traffic, which is in general lower yielding. Lack of Business/First passengers will give you a hard time to operate the flight profitable. Routing your passengers through mainland hubs makes more sense.
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SpencerII
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:21 pm

In answer to the posters question When? Probably not in the near future. With codeshare and Hawaii yields, It is not the best way or wisest way to place your resources---It would require to aircraft devoted entirely to that operation, and I cannot see anyone committing an aircraft such as what you are talking about to anything like that.
 
Viscount724
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:38 pm

I can't see a major airline operating Europe-HNL nonstop. Maybe a charter/leisure carrier but even there yield would be low. It's also too far for one aircraft to operate a roundtrip in 24 hours and dedicating 2 aircraft to a low yield route like with virtually no business traffic would be a poor use of resources especially with current fuel prices. Connections via the many Hawaii gateways in the US and Canada works better and much of that kind of traffic would want to make a stopover enroute anyway.
 
JGPH1A
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 8:55 pm

You'd be very lucky to get a European non-charter carrier to fly direct services to Hawaii - hell, even AA and UA both claim they only fly to Hawaii to keep the frequent flyers happy - they need somewhere to burn miles. The routes don't yield much, they're long and expensive with very little local traffic coming the other way. Routes from Japan make money because of sheer volume.
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nzrich
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:03 pm

Maybe a airline like NZ might and continue its flight through to LHR as it could still fill any empty seats with passengers from AKL to LHR and still get the yields as passengers between HNL and LHR would be the icing on the cake for the service .. A service like that would also help the AKL-HNL leg to and get it to daily ..
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ikramerica
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service

Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:30 pm



Quoting SpencerII (Reply 2):
In answer to the posters question When? Probably not in the near future.

It's been discussed many times.

There are those here that actively dismiss it out of hand because it doesn't exist now, because europeans would rather go elsewhere, that if they go to HNL they also want to go the Los Angeles, that the connecting flights through the USA are almost as convenient anyway etc. etc. (despite being confronted with tourist numbers and aircraft schedules that say otherwise).

The real problem is the most likely candidate city would be London (due to language considerations and historical considerations), and such flights CAN'T exist under Bermuda 2 without another city pair being dropped. Further, for the longest time, only a 747 could do the job, and that was too big.

But now Bermuda 2 is dead and smaller long range aircraft exist (or soon will).

SRB has said he would likely launch HNL service in the future, and it's likely a matter of when they get enough 787s to make that route the best route to add. Or it's even feasible that they put A343s on the route while they use the newer planes for other routes. We'll see.

http://starbulletin.com/2007/04/25/business/story01.html
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UAL777UK
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:36 pm



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 6):
SRB has said he would likely launch HNL service in the future, and it's likely a matter of when they get enough 787s to make that route the best route to add. Or it's even feasible that they put A343s on the route while they use the newer planes for other routes. We'll see.

But even if he does, hows he going to get good yields, I am struggling to believe that up front will be a major money maker, but as you say, we'll see but IMHO we will be waiting a hell of a long time before we see this route open up.
 
JGPH1A
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:40 pm



Quoting UAL777UK (Reply 7):
But even if he does, hows he going to get good yields, I am struggling to believe that up front will be a major money maker, but as you say, we'll see but IMHO we will be waiting a hell of a long time before we see this route open up.

Very good question - it's ALL leisure traffic. Even convention traffic is almost entirely continental US-based. Hawaii is a VERY long way away from Europe, it's a helluva long flight. There's no need to travel that far when you can get essentially the same experience in Jamaica or the Domincan Republic for much less money. And if you HAVE to have a beach holiday in the U.S., there's always Florida.
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LAXintl
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Sun Nov 18, 2007 9:52 pm



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 6):
It's been discussed many times.

Sigh yes....
UK/Europe - Honolulu Non-stop? (by CHRISBA777ER Feb 13 2007 in Civil Aviation) Any Demand For A Europe To HNL Non-stop Service? (by N593HA Sep 10 2005 in Civil Aviation) Europe To Hawaii Nonstop? (by HALFA Feb 17 2004 in Civil Aviation)


I guess some people dont give up on the dream and fail to accept the many reasons why a service (particularly a scheduled one) is not right around the corner.
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koruman
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:14 am

Actually, once the 787-9 arrives it is very likely to happen.

Air New Zealand can't operate any more Auckland-London Heathrow services via California but can use other US intermediate points, and using Honolulu would work well from the following points of view:

1. AKL-LHR passengers would fill the high yield seats, while AKL-HNL and HNL-LHR passengers would fill the back of the plane.

2. It would offer AKL-LHR passengers totally new departure time options (services via LAX leave in early evening and via HKG leave around midnight, while a service via HNL would depart early in the morning from both AKL and LHR.)

And by the way, if Virgin Atlantic open the route they are likely to use their Manchester / Gatwick - configured 787-9, with a seat count likely to be roughly 16 Upper Class / 64 Premium Economy / 200 Economy, which would use Premium Economy demand to retain high-yields.
 
ikramerica
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:44 am



Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 8):
Very good question - it's ALL leisure traffic.

Except when it's not.

There is cargo, and there are conventions.

And Las Vegas and Orlando are "all leisure traffic" (also a fallacy) yet they make it to europe.

The reason it doesn't exist now is because the city that makes the most sense, London, can't have service because of a stupid treaty. But that ends in 4 months.

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 9):
I guess some people dont give up on the dream and fail to accept the many reasons why a service (particularly a scheduled one) is not right around the corner.

That's a nice spin on something that is by no means settled.

And service does seem "right around the corner" in aviation terms at least, it's just will it be profitable?
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gigneil
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:48 am



Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 4):
You'd be very lucky to get a European non-charter carrier to fly direct services to Hawaii - hell, even AA and UA both claim they only fly to Hawaii to keep the frequent flyers happy

That is ABSOLUTELY untrue.

Both AA and UA have repeatedly said that they serve Hawaii because it is massively profitable for them. Hawaii traffic may be leisure, but it is far from low yield. Try getting a cheap ticket to HNL on either.

NS
 
sw733
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:03 am

No offense, but...Hawaii isn't really that great. Europeans have a lot of better places to go to in southern Europe/northern Africa, and even the Caribbean, than Hawaii. Add that to the 7200+ mi. trip LHR-HNL (compared to just over 4000 mi LHR-SXM as a random Caribbean destination I picked), and...well...not going to happen. Japanese go to Hawaii, Europeans don't.
 
Viscount724
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:14 am



Quoting Gigneil (Reply 12):
Both AA and UA have repeatedly said that they serve Hawaii because it is massively profitable for them. Hawaii traffic may be leisure, but it is far from low yield. Try getting a cheap ticket to HNL on either.

That is probably largely related to the use of smaller aircraft (e.g. many 757s and now 737s) by US carriers serving Hawaii, compared to 747s, L1011s and DC-10s on virtually all flights a few years ago. Domestic routes to Hawaii also have at least some business traffic (probably not much) paying the highest fares, while there would be almost none Europe-Hawaii. The much longer nonstop distance would also be more costly to operate especially at current fuel prices since you burn quite a bit of fuel just to carry the extra fuel required for a 15 hour sector. Rules would no doubt also require a double crew (2 relief pilots) and more than one night's crew rest at the turnaround point for both cockpit and cabin crew on such a long sector.

I think most carriers would find it more profitable to use the aircraft on 2 roundtrips on 6 to 8 hour sectors in the same time it would take the aircraft to get from Europe to Hawaii and back.

If Europe-Hawaii was lucrative, considering all the US-Europe open-skies markets that already exist, airlines would already be doing it. It seems that they consider it more lucrative to code-share with their alliance partners.
 
BAKJet
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:25 am



Quoting Koruman (Reply 10):
Air New Zealand can't operate any more Auckland-London Heathrow services via California

Why not?
 
koruman
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:26 am



Quoting SW733 (Reply 13):
No offense, but...Hawaii isn't really that great. Europeans have a lot of better places to go to in southern Europe/northern Africa, and even the Caribbean, than Hawaii. Add that to the 7200+ mi. trip LHR-HNL (compared to just over 4000 mi LHR-SXM as a random Caribbean destination I picked), and...well...not going to happen. Japanese go to Hawaii, Europeans don't.

No offence, but that's nonsense.

Firstly, Honolulu is less than an hour further away (440 miles further) from London than Singapore, yet Britons go in their masses to all sorts of places in Thailand, Malaysia or Indochina.

The only reason they don't go to Honolulu ANY MORE is because flying via LAX or ORD adds an extra five or six hours to the trip.

Secondly, more than twice as many Britons visited Honolulu in 1986 than 2006. Have you stopped to wonder why? The answer is that 747 classics and DC-10s needed to make refuelling stops across the Pacific, and passengers from Australia and New Zealand to the UK (and vice versa) jumped at the chance of a stopover in Hawaii. But now that those airplanes overfly Hawaii, those sorts of passengers are no longer catered for.

Lastly, as someone who has been to multiple Caribbean islands and all across Spain, Italy and France, I am astonished by your assertion. Most Caribbean islands are charmless barren American condo building sites (hello Aruba and St Maarten). Southern Europe is great, if you can afford high Euro prices, don't mind surly service and aren't upset by being pickpocketed. Waikiki may be built up but have you been to the other islands? Different strokes for different folks: Hawaii is a nice destination if you want to combine natural beauty with freedom from petty crime, beggars and hawkers trying to sell you postcards and souvenirs on the beach. And you can drink the water and need no shots, which isn't true in southeast Asia.
 
koruman
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:33 am

Quoting BAKJet (Reply 15):
Quoting Koruman (Reply 10):
Air New Zealand can't operate any more Auckland-London Heathrow services via California

Why not?

Because although the NZ-UK bilateral allows unlimited services into any LHR airport it specifies one service per day via LAX or SFO. This is also reflected in the NZ-US bilateral.

That is why Air New Zealand has just opened up AKL-YVR as a new service which will be extended on to London when there is demand for a third daily AKL-LHR flight, and it is why NZ5/6 AKL-LAX is highly likely to be extended on to Manchester.

The options for an eventual fifth and sixth daily flight from Auckland to the UK are Shanghai (except the transit experience there is so horrible that that is on indefinite hold) and, once the 787-9 is online, either AKL-PER-LHR or AKL-HNL-LHR. To be honest, when AKL-PVG was opened it was fully expected that it would soon continue on to LHR, but the check-in / immigration / security / transit situation at Shanghai is so aversive that Vancouver was conjured up as an alternative.

Demand between the UK and New Zealand is doubling every three years, and Air NZ's existing double daily 747-400 services will be replaced with smaller 777-300ERs, so current planning for Air New Zealand is for four daily services by 2011 and six daily services by 2013.

[Edited 2007-11-18 17:48:09]
 
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LTU932
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 3:56 am



Quoting Koruman (Reply 16):
Firstly, Honolulu is less than an hour further away (440 miles further) from London than Singapore

You should have clarified this a bit to avoid confusion. According to the Great Circle Mapper, LHR-HNL is 6289 nm if flown as a North/Northwest-South/Southeast route, while LHR-SIN is 5879 nm if flown as a West-East route. That's a difference of 410 nm or roughly 472 statute miles.
 
LAXintl
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 4:44 am

Lets get some facts on the table regarding Hawaii travel from Europe which can help as a reality check to show its a rather thin market.

In 2006 of 7.6mil visitors to Hawaii mere 104,841 (1.3%) were from Europe. Of this 54.2% were from the UK, and 24.6% from Germany. Arrivals had strong seasonality with 2-1 swing from the peak month to lowest month.

Demographically wise, largest group was 25-40 years olds with wedding and honeymoon travel being one of the primary drivers. Average daily spending was $168, somewhat in the middle of the pact for all visitors, however on the lower end of international ones. Of European travellers 69% were 1st visitors, the 2nd lowest rate of return visitors. 71.3% stayed on Oahu (cheapest isle). Just over 1/2 were on air+hotel package holidays.

So, to sum up the European Hawaii traveller, they are a younger budget conscious traveller whom make the trip once in their lives often related to a honeymoon/wedding

So can a dedicated Europe-HNL flight be supported with only 287 average daily visitors from all over Europe with rather weak(cheap) demographics??

In addition I am near certain many of these travellers also add in US mainland destinations as part of their trips, so there is no guarantee they would even be interested in a nonstop only service even if you could corral them to a single European departure point.

Data source: HVCB

[Edited 2007-11-18 20:48:38]
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DavidByrne
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 5:43 am



Quoting Koruman (Reply 17):
Demand between the UK and New Zealand is doubling every three years, and Air NZ's existing double daily 747-400 services will be replaced with smaller 777-300ERs, so current planning for Air New Zealand is for four daily services by 2011 and six daily services by 2013.

I didn't realise that planning at NZ was down to this level of detail at this stage. I'm assuming that this info comes from a reliable source? Does the "6x daily by 2013" include all European services, or just LHR? I assume all Euro services? And is YVR accepted within NZ as the next transit point for Europe? If confirmed, this is an interesting timetable for NZ expansion - but before I invest too much emotional energy in it, I do want to be sure that it's kosher info!
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hman
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service

Mon Nov 19, 2007 7:47 am



Quoting Laxintl (Reply 19):
So, to sum up the European Hawaii traveller, they are a younger budget conscious traveller whom make the trip once in their lives often related to a honeymoon/wedding

Here in Europe Hawaii vacations are usually considered very expensive. If you go to your travel agency you very well spend 5000 EUR for two weeks. That's why many people don't even consider it.

Airlines do offer good deals, but nobody seems do know about this. I went to Hawaii last year with a couple friends just for fun and spent 800 EUR for the flights TXL-JFK-LAX-OGG-LAX-JFK-TXL on DL. Everybody was astonished about this. Sure this trip was a pain in the a** as it took 40hrs out there and 22hrs on the return. A direct flight would cut the travel times significantly and could probably gain a lot "high yielding" economy traffic through the travel agencies.

On the other hand, I enjoyed not to have that many Germans or any other foreign group of tourists around. At least most of the time, until we got to Oahu  Wink.
 
Flying Belgian
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 7:56 am



Quoting Koruman (Reply 10):
Air New Zealand can't operate any more Auckland-London Heathrow services via California but can use other US intermediate points, and using Honolulu would work well from the following points of view:

I wasn't aware of that point. Can I ask you the reason why ?

Thx;
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hz747300
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 8:01 am

How about HKG - HNL nonstop service!? That would be nice too. Perhaps with the 773ERs coming to CX, they can shift an A330 to daily HNL service!

Does Hawaii advertise itself to the European tourist--has it done anything to drive up tourism from there? If not, and with no major airline based there, it will most likely have to be a charter airline. Then the question becomes, what does Hawaii offer that the Caribbean or Mediterranean doesn't? What's the hook to have someone trapped in a 18hr flight (what would it be in a direct polar route???)?

There would not be a lot of premium traffic on that route either.
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Pohakuloa
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 8:38 am



Quoting Gigneil (Reply 12):
That is ABSOLUTELY untrue.

Both AA and UA have repeatedly said that they serve Hawaii because it is massively profitable for them. Hawaii traffic may be leisure, but it is far from low yield. Try getting a cheap ticket to HNL on either.

NS

indeed...and as for hawaii residents going towards the mainland or europe, on average it is far more expensive for us to travel away from hawaii than it is for anyone else to travel to hawaii. almost double on a one way basis via many airlines on a HNL-west coast destination!
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Bofredrik
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 9:16 am

How long would the total flying time incl (1 hour stop ?) be between
for example LHR-HNL-AKL compared with LHR-HKG-AKL?
 
OHLHD
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 9:29 am



Quoting HNL-Jack" class=quote target=_blank>HNL-Jack (Thread starter):
At the current time there is enough traffic to support non-stop service at least five days a week between either LON or FRA and HNL.

Maybe there are enough people to travel this route but a non-stop would be much more expensive and the ultra longhaul segment is rather for business men then for the average tourist.

Would you want to step out of an aircraft after a 18h flight - half dead - and you need 3 days to start enjoying your holidays and after your flight back home you need another 3 days before you can start working again?

This would not be a money maker.  Smile
 
koruman
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 11:43 am



Quoting Bofredrik (Reply 25):
How long would the total flying time incl (1 hour stop ?) be between
for example LHR-HNL-AKL compared with LHR-HKG-AKL?

Interesting that you should ask.

Auckland to London via Honolulu is 57 miles shorter than via Hong Kong (the existing NZ38/39) and 334 miles shorter than via Los Angeles (the existing NZ1/2).

No Air New Zealand aircraft will have the range until the 787-9 joins the fleet, but offering Honolulu as an additional routing spreads departures and arrivals between AKL and LHR around the clock. And the AKL-LHR through passengers fix up the problem of HNL being a low yield destination.

Quoting DavidByrne (Reply 20):
didn't realise that planning at NZ was down to this level of detail at this stage. I'm assuming that this info comes from a reliable source? Does the "6x daily by 2013" include all European services, or just LHR?

Very much so actually. The size of the 787-9 and 777-300ER orders, and the number of 777-200ERs to be retained from the lessor, has been predicated on anticipated growth in the NZ-UK market. It's why on the NZ Aviation thread I'm always so sceptical of flights to South America or India, because all the capacity is due to be used to the UK.

And my understanding is that the third or fourth flight would be a Manchester one.

Also, now that Air NZ services Honolulu only twice weekly you have to ask yourself why they bother to keep their own lounge and sales office. And my understanding is that the "Hong Kong solution" is under active consideration, namely fix a poorly performing route from AKL by extending it as a refuelling point en route to somewhere more profitable, which in Honolulu's case limits the options to Vancouver, Toronto or London due to cabotage rules.
 
DavidByrne
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 11:54 am



Quoting Koruman (Reply 27):
Also, now that Air NZ services Honolulu only twice weekly you have to ask yourself why they bother to keep their own lounge and sales office. And my understanding is that the "Hong Kong solution" is under active consideration, namely fix a poorly performing route from AKL by extending it as a refuelling point en route to somewhere more profitable, which in Honolulu's case limits the options to Vancouver, Toronto or London due to cabotage rules.

I've always thought of HNL-YYZ as being potentially very difficult, given that NZ couldn't make YVR work via HNL. They won't want to extend to YVR in competition their own non-stop service (although, perhaps, 3x AKL-YVR nonstop, 4x via HNL might just work). But the Toronto market for NZ? Hmmm. Really only leaves London.
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scbriml
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 12:53 pm



Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 11):
and there are conventions

Yes, but how many attend those conventions from Europe? I suspect the numbers are very small.
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koruman
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:18 pm

Quoting DavidByrne (Reply 28):
always thought of HNL-YYZ as being potentially very difficult, given that NZ couldn't make YVR work via HNL. They won't want to extend to YVR in competition their own non-stop service (although, perhaps, 3x AKL-YVR nonstop, 4x via HNL might just work

I think you might have hit the nail on the head there. Auckland-San Francisco only opened 2 years ago as 3x weekly and has already been a daily service now for ages.

Air New Zealand's 777-200ER fleet is currently under-utilised, and I would guess that the current options being considered in the short-term are:
1) Keep AKL-YVR as 3x weekly, but add AKL-HNL-YVR as a codeshare with Air Canada on the other four days, on the basis that AC's conversion of YVR-HNL-SYD into YVR-SYD will sharply reduce its own YVR-HNL capacity, and probably guarantee a decent load for Air NZ.
2) Keep AKL-YVR as 3x weekly, and extend AKL-LAX on to Manchester 3x weekly.
3) Increase AKL-YVR to five times weekly, and continue every flight onto London as a codeshare with Air Canada.

Honolulu may regain Air New Zealand services to Vancouver next year, but any AKL-HNL-LHR service will have to wait for the 787-9s to arrive in 2011, and even then it will probably be a lower priority than Auckland-Perth-London simply because the Western Australian long-haul market is so much richer and higher yielding than the American one .

[Edited 2007-11-19 05:21:18]
 
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flylku
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service

Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:24 pm



Quoting JRadier (Reply 1):
Traffic is one thing, yield is another. HNL is mainly vacation traffic, which is in general lower yielding. Lack of Business/First passengers will give you a hard time to operate the flight profitable. Routing your passengers through mainland hubs makes more sense.

This is spot on.

Quoting Gigneil (Reply 12):
Both AA and UA have repeatedly said that they serve Hawaii because it is massively profitable for them. Hawaii traffic may be leisure, but it is far from low yield. Try getting a cheap ticket to HNL on either.

Perhaps, but UA serves many of the Hawaii routes with specially configured, high density 777s (two class) and the domestic version of the 767 (also two class). Indeed, the newly "wing-tipped" 757s are destined for Hawaii. Could / would a European carrier be willing to carve up their fleet in the same way?
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etops1
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 1:52 pm

that's a real long haul . it's roughly 6296 nm between london anf honolulu going westbound. i am flying it right now on my flt sim using a virgin 747-400. i took off form lgw @ 830am lgw time. looking to arrive in hnl at around 930am hnl time give or take. flt time is around 14:55. over northern canada right now and it's still dark. talking to edmonton center.
 
kl911
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 2:08 pm



Quoting Laxintl (Reply 9):
I guess some people dont give up on the dream and fail to accept the many reasons why a service (particularly a scheduled one) is not right around the corner.

Last week when Arkefly ( Holland) received their new 737-800 an executive said that when they receive their 787's HNL is serious option to fly it to, together with LAS. That should be in 2010.

KL911
 
itsnotfinals
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 2:37 pm



Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 4):
hell, even AA and UA both claim they only fly to Hawaii to keep the frequent flyers happy

This is one of the longest running fallacies on Anet. FF tickets are extremely limited to Hawaii on all airlines.

Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 4):
Routes from Japan make money because of sheer volume.

you contradicted yourself here. Volume does not replace yield.

Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 8):
There's no need to travel that far when you can get essentially the same experience in Jamaica or the Domincan Republic for much less money

You must actually be in the US not south Africa. You forgot Faro, Malaga, Ibiza, Tenerife, all of Greece, Turkey , etc etc etc. All of these destinations are within 4 hours flying time (orless) of northern Europe.
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JGPH1A
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 2:44 pm



Quoting Itsnotfinals (Reply 34):
you contradicted yourself here. Volume does not replace yield.

No but in the absence of one, the other is acceptible if costs can be kept down.

Quoting Itsnotfinals (Reply 34):
This is one of the longest running fallacies on Anet.

Everyone I've spoken to in Revenue Management at AA and UA say the routes barely scrape by, and the only reason they keep them going is for the FF's. So, amusingly enough did HA and AQ when discussing interline agreements with AA and UA. Who am I to disbelieve them.
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 2:49 pm



Quoting HNL-Jack" class=quote target=_blank>HNL-Jack (Thread starter):
At the current time there is enough traffic to support non-stop service at least five days a week between either LON or FRA and HNL.

Would you be able to demonstrate this with numbers and source?

Also, non-HNL will be no better off. For example, Maui traffic on LHR-HNL will have to compete with multiple one-stop connection possibilities through the US and even Canada.
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 2:52 pm



Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 35):
Everyone I've spoken to in Revenue Management at AA and UA say the routes barely scrape by, and the only reason they keep them going is for the FF's.

It would be nice to see some facts, since UA seems to tie up over a billion dollars of assets every day to fly to and from Hawaii, that is highly doubtful.

The FF statement is just false. for 8-12 FF seats you're going to send a 777 from DEN to HNL for 15 hours of r/t flight time and all that expensive fuel?
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 4:48 pm



Quoting Itsnotfinals (Reply 34):
you contradicted yourself here. Volume does not replace yield.

Not totally true.

Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 35):
No but in the absence of one, the other is acceptible if costs can be kept down.

Volume does indeed not replace yield, but if you have loadfactors close to a 100% yields can be lower to cover the costs. So if there wouldn't be as much passengers, total income would decrease to a point where they don't cover the costs anymore, and the flight makes a loss.

Quoting Itsnotfinals (Reply 37):
The FF statement is just false. for 8-12 FF seats you're going to send a 777 from DEN to HNL for 15 hours of r/t flight time and all that expensive fuel?

Why is it just false? It might very well be (and I'm not arguing the claim that UA/AA just operate HNL flights for FF pax) that the flight itself barely makes a profit (because of the low yields) but you still operate the flight to keep Frequent Fliers happy as they make a lot of money elsewhere in the system.
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 5:58 pm



Quoting Koruman (Reply 16):
Firstly, Honolulu is less than an hour further away (440 miles further) from London than Singapore, yet Britons go in their masses to all sorts of places in Thailand, Malaysia or Indochina.

The only reason they don't go to Honolulu ANY MORE is because flying via LAX or ORD adds an extra five or six hours to the trip.


Hmmm...you can't really compare going to Thailand, Malaysia, and Indochina with Hawaii. First, like you said, the trip is shorter. Even if you're talking about an hour. Secondly, a lot of people go to those Asian countries because of business. Hawaii, on the other hand, is more vacation/leisure/ and "conferences". Thirdly, and most importantly, those Asian countries are a bigger bargain to Europeans b/c there are always promotions going on and let's face it, everything is a LOT cheaper than in Hawaii, where your bottled water will cost you $5. So while the tickets may be similarly priced, Hawaii always ends up being the more expensive option.

Quoting SW733 (Reply 13):
No offense, but...Hawaii isn't really that great. Europeans have a lot of better places to go to in southern Europe/northern Africa, and even the Caribbean, than Hawaii.

While many people may be bashing on your comment, I think you're correct. Europeans have the Mediteranean Sea, Greece, Carribeans, Tahiti, Fiji, Mauritius, etc. that they could go to. Why go to Hawaii?
 
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 6:02 pm



Quoting JRadier (Reply 38):
total income would decrease to a point where they don't cover the costs anymore, and the flight makes a loss.

That is called yield management. the airlines use very sophisticated algorithms to maximize yield and Hawaii flights are no exception.

Quoting JRadier (Reply 38):
but you still operate the flight to keep Frequent Fliers happy

You operate flights no make money. No route planner in the world will tell you operate to a city just to keep certain people happy.
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 6:08 pm

One other wild card ... the strength of the Euro. Demand for travel to the U.S. as a tourist destination will grow in proportion to the weakness of the dollar. Europeans may look at Hawaii as a cheaper destination relative to regional tropical locations even if the airfare is a quite a bit higher.

Many of my Europeans colleques have said that if they were to go to Disney, they would go to Orlando Disney as it is much cheaper than Euro Disney in terms of total cost. Oh ... and the weather is better.
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COSPN
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 6:10 pm

HKG and SIN would make more sense SQ used to fly to HNL guess droped because of low yeild...
 
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 6:13 pm



Quoting B777a340fan (Reply 39):
Tahiti



Quoting B777a340fan (Reply 39):
Why go to Hawaii?

If you go to Tahiti, then why not also Hawaii? Tahiti is just as commercial and expensive as Hawaii is.
 
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 6:20 pm



Quoting FlyLKU (Reply 41):
One other wild card ... the strength of the Euro. Demand for travel to the U.S. as a tourist destination will grow in proportion to the weakness of the dollar

With US tourism arrivals about to set a record in 2007, conventional wisdom would indicate Hawaii would get its slice of the pie as well.
In reality however instead international Hawaii visitors for the first 9 months of 2007 is actually down 4.6%, with total international visitor days down even more drastic 9.5%. Country specific visitor stats show, UK visitors numbers are down 4.3%, while Germany was down 0.8% thru September '07.
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 6:27 pm



Quoting Pohakuloa (Reply 24):
indeed...and as for hawaii residents going towards the mainland or europe, on average it is far more expensive for us to travel away from hawaii than it is for anyone else to travel to hawaii. almost double on a one way basis via many airlines on a HNL-west coast destination!

Interesting side note to this: there's a growing level of traffic on the YVR-HNL,OGG routes from Hawaiians wanting to ski at Whistler in the winter. I've run into Hawaiians on the ski lifts and on the flights. I don't have any numbers, but the anecdotal evidence is sure strong.

I also think Europeans interested in Hawaii's other islands (e.g Maui, Hawaii) could easily find routings like LHR-YVR-OGG of LHR-SFO-OGG a much more convenient way of getting there than a direct LHR-HNL trip with and inter-island leg tacked on. I go to Hawaii at least once a year, and I avoid Waikiki like the plague.
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 6:29 pm



Quoting Itsnotfinals (Reply 40):
That is called yield management. the airlines use very sophisticated algorithms to maximize yield and Hawaii flights are no exception.

It is, and I don't think I believe I said anything else. But the point I was trying to make it to explain why volume can offset a lower yield.

Quoting Itsnotfinals (Reply 40):

You operate flights no make money. No route planner in the world will tell you operate to a city just to keep certain people happy.

I never said the flights don't make money. I said they might (and I emphasize 'might') barely make a profit (but a profit anyway). If they would stop the flights to Hawaii, those customers might (again, might) switch to other carriers that do offer HNL/OGG etc service. That would cause you to loose income (and with FF, that might be very good income) elsewhere in the system. So operating a flight that only makes a small profit can be kept to keep passengers.

Same thing with connecting passengers. A flight itself may loose money but it can have a positive effect on the system as a whole.
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ORDagent
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 6:31 pm

It is only a matter of time before we get Europe-Hawaii nonstops. The vactioning public in the U.K. and Germany in particular witll demand it. It started after the war with trips to the Costa Del Sol beaches and Greek Islands. Thailand and Southeast Asia followed. The Carribean then came into vogue. The tour companies are always looking for the next exotic local as the battle to keep vacationing public coming back. Today there are nonstop charters from all over the Carribean to all over the U.K. and Continental Europe. With First Choice and other charter/leisure airlines getting the equipment to do it I can't see how it won't happen on at least a seasonal basis.
 
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 6:35 pm



Quoting Itsnotfinals (Reply 40):
You operate flights no make money. No route planner in the world will tell you operate to a city just to keep certain people happy.

You are correct, but realize that real life adds more complexities than your argument presents. For instance, perhaps if UA decided tomorrow to end all service to Hawaii, they would lose so many frequent fliers that they might start losing high yields on many other flights. Frequent fliers might transfer over to AA/DL with many Hawaii flights, causing UA in turn to lose money.
 
mdl21483
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RE: When Will We See Europe - HNL Non-stop Service?

Mon Nov 19, 2007 6:39 pm



Quoting Bofredrik (Reply 25):
How long would the total flying time incl (1 hour stop ?) be between
for example LHR-HNL-AKL compared with LHR-HKG-AKL?

Using an operating cruise speed of 490KTS:


LHR-HKG 57°(NE) 5209 nm 10:38
HKG-AKL 135°(SE) 4943 nm 10:05
total in-air time LHR-HKG-AKL: 20:43

LHR-HNL 338°(N) 6289 nm 12:50
HNL-AKL 204°(SW) 3814 nm 7:47
total in-air time LHR-HNL-AKL: 20:37

So not much of a saver in terms of flying times. It would still take a single frame upwards of 24 hrs for a round trip- and thats not including common factors like using/fighting any winds aloft and non-great circle routings over land
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