Flying-Tiger
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SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 6:36 am



Quote:
National flag carrier South African Air-ways (SAA) could decide in January to acquire extra aircraft.

The company’s return to growth could make such a step possible.

“If we continue to grow at the rate we’re growing now, we may have to acquire further aircraft, whether new or old, in the future,” states SAA CEO Dr Khaya Ngqula. “This is now on the horizon. We’ll have workshops first and then discuss the issue with the board in January.”

http://www.engineeringnews.co.za/article.php?a_id=121195

No indication given what might be on the table but IMO it will be more long-haul equipment (A330-200, A340).
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PM
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 7:02 am

Couldn't they just take the 747s out of storage?
 
JoKeR
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 8:33 am



Quoting PM (Reply 1):
Couldn't they just take the 747s out of storage?

None in storage, all found new lives elsewhere...
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BreninTW
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 8:36 am

AFAIK, the only 747 that SA still has sitting in storage is Ndizani (ZS-SAJ) -- while I'd LOVE to see her take to the air again, it's not likely to happen in a hurry.
 
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American 767
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 8:52 am

Maybe they'll go for the 747-8, which would be nice. I'm not sure they will buy it but at least they are evaluating it, and compare it with the A380, in terms of performance and revenue. If they buy it they will start by ordering a couple of those with options on a few more, and if they are really happy with it then they will exercise their options.

Possible SAA 747-8 or A380 routes:
JNB-LHR
CPT-LHR
JNB-FRA

Ben Soriano
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scouseflyer
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 8:58 am

I've always wondered if they could be a destination for some of the ILFC A380s, although they're short of cash and if they want a cheap new wide quickly it's looking like the 767!
 
columba
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 9:04 am



Quoting American 767 (Reply 4):
. I'm not sure they will buy it but at least they are evaluating it, and compare it with the A380, in terms of performance and revenue.

Where do you have found that information ?
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
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American 767
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 10:56 am



Quoting Columba (Reply 6):

Quoting American 767 (Reply 4):
. I'm not sure they will buy it but at least they are evaluating it, and compare it with the A380, in terms of performance and revenue.

Where do you have found that information ?

I didn't say they would buy it. I was only thinking of this as a possibility. The company is returning to growth according to the article posted above. SAA has a long history with the Boeing 747.
Ben Soriano
 
columba
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 11:18 am



Quoting American 767 (Reply 7):
I didn't say they would buy it. I was only thinking of this as a possibility. The company is returning to growth according to the article posted above. SAA has a long history with the Boeing 747.

But you said that they are evaluating the A380 and 747-8I in the article posted above no type is mentioned so it could only be A350s and 787s they consider. Don´t get me wrong I would love SAA get the 747-8I, their 747-400s were one of the best looking aircraft around.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
Bongodog1964
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 3:09 pm

If SAA couldn't justify a 747-400 on JNB-LHR, their need for the 747-8i or A380 is slightly suspect.
 
columba
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 3:12 pm



Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 9):
If SAA couldn't justify a 747-400 on JNB-LHR, their need for the 747-8i or A380 is slightly suspect.

AC and KL could also fill an A380 on some routes and are not ordering it.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
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ZSOFN
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 3:14 pm



Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 9):
f SAA couldn't justify a 747-400 on JNB-LHR, their need for the 747-8i or A380 is slightly suspect.

I personally don't think they had a problem justifying the 744 on the route; it's a huge market. I think a combination of having a slightly ageing 744 fleet & increasing shift to Airbus were behind dropping the aircraft. A332s/A350s & A380s would be my prime suspects...
 
shankly
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 3:35 pm

SAA has a poor recent history of getting the right aircraft at the right price and is probably the only airline in the world that could not make money on full capacity 12hr 744 flights (LHR-CPT & JNB). That says alot about the airline rather than the actual a/c it flies.

It would be a coup for SAA to bag the lease company 380's and start operating those on its prime routes way ahead of its rivals (and possibly for the 2010 world cup?). However, one suspects SAA could not negotiate a decent deal if it had to and would soon be moaning that despite 90%+ load factors, it can't make money on the 380.

I love SAA; it is (was) a true one off and I hate to see it in such a stagnant state
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AF022
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 4:15 pm



Quoting American 767 (Reply 4):
Possible SAA 747-8 or A380 routes:
JNB-LHR
CPT-LHR
JNB-FRA

Are you serious? The utilization of these routes is horrible, and they will never be able to cover the high ownership costs if the plane is on the ground all day long.
 
QF744ER
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 4:20 pm

I'm still waiting to see something definate as to where the ex SAA B744's are going, nothing has appeared on any of the usual aviation forums with the exception of -SAX.

Apparently Transaero for the RR powered ones and PR for the 2 x GE ones.
 
speedbird128
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 5:07 pm



Quoting Shankly (Reply 12):
That says alot about the airline rather than the actual a/c it flies.

Spot on. If they were *given* free aircraft they wouldn't be able to make a profit...
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pfletch1228
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 5:23 pm



Quoting QF744ER (Reply 14):
I'm still waiting to see something definate as to where the ex SAA B744's are going, nothing has appeared on any of the usual aviation forums with the exception of -SAX.

TAAG Angola have some. Cathay also took some. I watched the TAAG crew come pic up the last of the 744s at JIA and you can still see them flying the Luanda -> JNB route.

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 9):
If SAA couldn't justify a 747-400 on JNB-LHR, their need for the 747-8i or A380 is slightly suspect.

They couldnt justify it because of the balloon lease scheme that was attached to all aircraft. The payments got more and more the older the aircraft got. Coupled to age based increase in maintenance costs, and the CASM incl lease payments were more than the sustanable RASM. The lessors wouldnt re-look at the payments, so they had to go... I am sure at market related leases, the CASM figures would work on the 744.

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 5):
although they're short of cash and if they want a cheap new wide quickly it's looking like the 767!

Unlikely. SA had 3 x 762ER and replaced them with A343. They were problematic in the fleet, and by all accounts, SA were happy to see the 767 leave.

Quoting Scouseflyer (Reply 5):
I've always wondered if they could be a destination for some of the ILFC A380s

If my memory serves me, they actually did have a contract of sorts with ILFC for the A380s then pulled out the deal before finalising due to financial constraints.

I dont think you will ever see new Boeing products flying for SA again. They are an Airbus shop now. Even SAA Technical are gearing towards an all airbus future. The leases on the 738 fleet start expiring in 2010, so the replacements for these 21 birds will tell the story at the end of the day - and my bet is that it will be the A320 as SA have repeatedly stated that they work better for them on their route network than the 738s do (and SA would know as they have operated the A320 before, and operate A319 now). They have also cancelled 777s they had on order in the past.
War does not determine who is right. War determines who is left.
 
AF022
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 8:23 pm



Quoting Pfletch1228 (Reply 16):
The leases on the 738 fleet start expiring in 2010

How many do they have? Are they expiring in a short period of time, or over a long period? Will they be replaced with A321?
 
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American 767
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Fri Nov 23, 2007 11:18 pm



Quoting AF022 (Reply 13):
Are you serious?

I was only talking about possible plans for the future, if they ever order a new jumbo but it doesn't look like they will, according to the replies.
Ben Soriano
 
md90fan
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sat Nov 24, 2007 2:00 am



Quoting Pfletch1228 (Reply 16):

TAAG Angola have some. Cathay also took some. I watched the TAAG crew come pic up the last of the 744s at JIA and you can still see them flying the Luanda -> JNB route.

TAAG took some ex.SAA 744? Are you sure?
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Umfolozi
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sat Nov 24, 2007 5:29 am



Quoting Pfletch1228 (Reply 16):
The leases on the 738 fleet start expiring in 2010, so the replacements for these 21 birds will tell the story at the end of the day

How will this affect Mango?
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andz
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sat Nov 24, 2007 5:53 am



Quoting AF022 (Reply 17):
How many do they have?



Quoting Pfletch1228 (Reply 16):
these 21 birds

when in doubt.... read!  Smile
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flymad
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sat Nov 24, 2007 6:43 am



Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 9):
If SAA couldn't justify a 747-400 on JNB-LHR, their need for the 747-8i or A380 is slightly suspect

As was discussed in another thread. IIRC, problem with profitability (or lack thereof) on the LHR route was because the lease costs on the 744's were so high (almost double what they should have been paying). SA sold most of their 744's and leased them back at a ridiculous lease cost with an exorbatant annual increase built in as well. Had the 744's still been SA's own (as in purchased outright like they were before being sold and leased back) they would problaby still be in service with SA and flying profitably.  twocents 
 
pfletch1228
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sat Nov 24, 2007 8:37 am



Quoting MD90fan (Reply 19):
TAAG took some ex.SAA 744? Are you sure?

Yip I am sure. What I am not sure of is the terms and conditions. Prior to SA grounding the 744, they had it out on wet lease with crew to TAAG anyway. TAAG have "sold" their 777's, so I am not sure if the ex-SA 744 is a permanent fixture in their fleet, or if they are wet leasing it short term directly from the owners until they can replace the 777s.

Quoting Umfolozi (Reply 20):
How will this affect Mango?

They have 4 birds on sub-lease, all HGW versions. They are getting another 2 birds ex-SA at the end of the year, also HGW versions. I imagine if they want to keep them at the end of the lease, they will enter into contract negotiations directly with the lessors and get a favourable lease rate. At the moment they are paying "Market related rates" for them through SA, but SA is heavily subsidising the lease rate as the rate attached to them via the owner lessor is circa 2001 when the Rand was at R12:$1. I believe you will see a situation whereby SA will move all the 738s worth keeping to Mango (the HGW versions), renegotiate the leases, and get rid of the rest. The HGW version of the 738 is however ideal for Mangos operation (high pax density, range, performance out of JIA in summer, and they dont need the containerised cargo ability as they seldom carry cargo), and it is a seperate pilot pool, so I believe they will keep them.

The remaining 738s at SA will be get replaced by A320s, more than likely with IAE engines like the previous 7 they had. They have not given any indication whether they will look at any A321s.
War does not determine who is right. War determines who is left.
 
SA006
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sat Nov 24, 2007 10:03 am

Interesting.

Any more A340's on the cards for international use?

Off topic , but for the South African members quick question....were any aircraft damaged last night at JNB after the horrendous hailstorm? Haven't heard anything..
Proudly South African
 
Leskova
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sat Nov 24, 2007 10:16 am



Quoting SA006 (Reply 24):
Any more A340's on the cards for international use?

While I'd love to see that happening, I guess that SAA probably will be heading the A350's way; question is what they'll be doing in the short-term, which is probably where the A340 might sill have a chance: they've operated A332s before, but have never ordered them, so I guess that they came to the conclusion that that aircraft just didn't fit into their fleet & needs.

Then again, that was a couple of years and managements back... who knows what they're thinking these days...

Damn... I've always really enjoyed flying on SAA, it's really sad to see them in the state they're in these days...  Sad
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Thorben
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sat Nov 24, 2007 10:16 am



Quoting ZSOFN (Reply 11):
A332s/A350s & A380s would be my prime suspects...

Excactly my thoughts. A332s could do routes to South America, India, the Middle East and Europe. A350s should replace the A342s and A343s in 7-8 years, A380s could be used to FRA and LHR.
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
flymad
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sat Nov 24, 2007 11:53 am



Quoting SA006 (Reply 24):
Off topic , but for the South African members quick question....were any aircraft damaged last night at JNB after the horrendous hailstorm? Haven't heard anything..

Nothing on the news wires but maybe somone at the JNB itself could confirm
 
A390
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sat Nov 24, 2007 1:15 pm

I am working at JNB today and have not heard of any damage to a/c last night.

Back to the topic:
I seriously doubt SAA is in a financial state to purchase new a/c, they have been making a loss for years now.
Could fleet decisions could also mean changing schedules, routes, phasing out other a/c types (such as they did with the B744) ?
 
SA7700
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sat Nov 24, 2007 5:18 pm



Quoting A390 (Reply 28):
I seriously doubt SAA is in a financial state to purchase new a/c, they have been making a loss for years now.

I agree with you.

Quoting Pfletch1228 (Reply 23):
TAAG have "sold" their 777's, so I am not sure if the ex-SA 744 is a permanent fixture in their fleet, or if they are wet leasing it short term directly from the owners until they can replace the 777s.

IIRC TAAG's 777's are out on wetlease, due to the EU ban of TAAG's planes in EU airspace. For the record, their 3rd 777 is in the final assembly stage in the hangers here in Everett.
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
SA7700
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sat Nov 24, 2007 5:33 pm



Quoting Thorben (Reply 26):
A332s could do routes to South America

Forgive my ignorance, but how? IIRC the A332 is 120 minutes ETOPS restricted, making JNB-GRU-JNB a no-go.
When you are doing stuff that nobody has done before, there is no manual – Kevin McCloud (Grand Designs)
 
pfletch1228
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sat Nov 24, 2007 5:35 pm



Quoting SA006 (Reply 24):
Any more A340's on the cards for international use?



Quoting Leskova (Reply 25):
While I'd love to see that happening, I guess that SAA probably will be heading the A350's way; question is what they'll be doing in the short-term, which is probably where the A340 might sill have a chance: they've operated A332s before, but have never ordered them, so I guess that they came to the conclusion that that aircraft just didn't fit into their fleet & needs.

Well if the price is right, they will get more A340s. SA are very happy with them as they are perfect for hot and high JNB. Having said that, they have just taken back the A343 that were on lease to Jet, and at the moment seem to be about right sized for their route structure. They are also sending more 738s through Africa, and focusing the A319 fleet on domestic. They are actually running the A319s between JNB and CPT now to free up 738s for northbound flights. The focus at SA at the moment is very much around building the African route network, and dropping the non profitable international routes. Any acquisition made now would be to accomodate this strategy as they make their bread and butter in Africa.

There were murmurings a while back that SA wont be looking at the 787 or A350 until concrete hot and high performance figures are available. But take that with a pinch of salt...
War does not determine who is right. War determines who is left.
 
andz
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sat Nov 24, 2007 6:53 pm



Quoting SA006 (Reply 24):
were any aircraft damaged last night at JNB after the horrendous hailstorm? Haven't heard anything..

The "horrendous" hailstorm wasn't as bad as reported, I live 5 min from the airport and was out on my motorcycle in it ... it stung but wasn't enough to damage a plane.
After Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says WTF...
 
dutchjet
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sat Nov 24, 2007 7:15 pm

The key issues facing SAA are as follows:

1. Rationalization of the narrowbody fleet: the A32X/737NG mix clearly does not make much sense in the long-run and my guess is that SAA will go with Airbus. Where that leaves Mango and its 738s is unclear, but posts above seem to indicate that the 738 may be retained for this mission.

2. Medium capacity widebody fleet: SAA has a mix of A342s (acquired second hand from LH) and new build A343 (some of which were leased out to Jet)....I assume that before SAA makes any commitment for newer airliners in this class, it must sort out and finalize its longhaul route system. SAA has recently added some longhaul routes while dropping others to Europe, their strategy is not exactly clear. The A342s are getting older, and while they are certainly not in need of immediate replacement, its time to start planning.....and $100/bbl oil is another factor to consider. Clearly, this is a 787 vs A350 competition.

3. VLA: Does SAA require an airplane bigger than the A346? I think that SAA is at a disadvantage on the busy LHR-JNB, LHR-CPT and FRA-JNB routes without an aircraft is the 748I or A380 category.....but the financial case for a small fleet of rather expensive high capacity airplanes is a difficult one due to the fact that 2 aircraft are required to run these routes if overnight services are to be offered in each direction (which is the schedule preferred by most pax, and especially those important premium full fare pax.)

Interesting times......can SAA afford to invest in new aircraft once again without wrecking its finances? And, while some predict that SAA will go all Airbus, I am not so sure. We heard how AC was going all Airbus until the 787/777 order was placed, we heard that LH was going all Airbus until it surprised a lot of people by launching the 748I....thus, time will tell what SAA does.
 
Thorben
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sat Nov 24, 2007 7:22 pm



Quoting SA7700 (Reply 30):
Forgive my ignorance, but how? IIRC the A332 is 120 minutes ETOPS restricted, making JNB-GRU-JNB a no-go.

ETOPS 180 min, AFAIK.
France 1789; Eastern Germany 1989; Tunisia 2011; Egypt 2011
 
speedbird128
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sun Nov 25, 2007 6:48 am

Quoting Flymad (Reply 27):
Nothing on the news wires but maybe somone at the JNB itself could confirm

Didn't hear anything about hail-damage either... (Down here in Boksburg it was all smaller than marble size hail)

[Edited 2007-11-24 22:52:39]
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Leskova
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sun Nov 25, 2007 11:20 am



Quoting Thorben (Reply 34):
Quoting SA7700 (Reply 30):
Forgive my ignorance, but how? IIRC the A332 is 120 minutes ETOPS restricted, making JNB-GRU-JNB a no-go.

ETOPS 180 min, AFAIK.

Indeed, it is ETOPS180 certified:
http://www.geae.com/aboutgeae/presscenter/cf6/cf6_19950206.html
http://www.airbus.com/en/presscentre...releases_items/06_04_26_etops.html
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columba
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sun Nov 25, 2007 11:44 am



Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 33):
3. VLA: Does SAA require an airplane bigger than the A346? I think that SAA is at a disadvantage on the busy LHR-JNB, LHR-CPT and FRA-JNB routes without an aircraft is the 748I or A380 category.....but the financial case for a small fleet of rather expensive high capacity airplanes is a difficult one due to the fact that 2 aircraft are required to run these routes if overnight services are to be offered in each direction (which is the schedule preferred by most pax, and especially those important premium full fare pax.)

I think SAA has the need for a VLA whether it is the 747-8I or A380 is the question. and it depends mainly on the 787 vs A350 decision. I can see them leasing 2-4 A380s and buying A350s.

Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 33):
Interesting times......can SAA afford to invest in new aircraft once again without wrecking its finances? And, while some predict that SAA will go all Airbus, I am not so sure. We heard how AC was going all Airbus until the 787/777 order was placed, we heard that LH was going all Airbus until it surprised a lot of people by launching the 748I....thus, time will tell what SAA does.

LH going all Airbus was an a.net myth, they have always said that they don´t want to be dependant from one manufacturer - I remember reading posts from you were you said that all the time to people who claimed that LH would never buy Boeing again.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
Umfolozi
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Sun Nov 25, 2007 3:03 pm



Quoting Columba (Reply 37):
I can see them leasing 2-4 A380s

I would love to see an A380 in SA colours some day. Just imagine that tail!
The only good suit is a wetsuit
 
flymad
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RE: SAA To Decide On Fleet Decisions In 2008

Wed Nov 28, 2007 9:38 am



Quoting Dutchjet (Reply 33):
Interesting times......can SAA afford to invest in new aircraft once again without wrecking its finances

Much has been said on this and various other thread about SA's dire financial situation. They may not be able to afford new aircraft, but they have just announced a 25 million rand sponsorship of the national Springbok Rugby team as official carrier - BA were previously official carriers of the national rugby team.