skyhigh
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What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Thu Nov 29, 2007 12:55 pm

Sorry if this has been discussed. I have seen posts on BBI but not this specifically.

I was recently reading an article in Airports of the World regarding the new BBI airport in Berlin, due to open in 4 years.

LH have successfully built a strong second hub at Munich, without detracting from their main hub at FRA. They have also more recently increased their presence in DUS to compete with Air Berlin.

Although FRA is the centre for finance, Berlin now ranks 3rd in European cities by tourist numbers. It is also now the capital and houses the German Government, designed by Norman Foster no less! I imagine that there is a fair amount of interest from many airlines wanting to use the new facility.

No doubt LH will want to build a substantial hub at the new BBI. What will this mean for its other 2 hubs and 1 focus city? Can LH operate from all 4 airports without downgrading services at any of them?

Many thanks
Luke
 
CRJ900
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Thu Nov 29, 2007 1:07 pm

I think LH is big enough to have a 4th "hub" in Germany, Berlin. For the time being, I think yields are not great to/from Berlin due to pax being mainly tourists, while FRA, MUC and DUS have a lot of business traffic.

Perhaps LH CityLine will be a good choice for LH at BBI. CRJ900s have low operating costs yet allow LH to offer a premium class, like they do in MUC.
Come, fly the prevailing winds with me
 
caspritz78
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Thu Nov 29, 2007 2:01 pm

When it comes to business travellers Berlin is not very interesting. Tourists are very price sensitive and not a great source of steady income and the German Government is neither. Maybe it will change in a few years and BBI will become an Eastern Europe Hub for LH but right now I think LH is very comfortable with their two hubs in FRA and MUC and their increased activity in DUS.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Thu Nov 29, 2007 2:32 pm

Quoting Skyhigh (Thread starter):
No doubt LH will want to build a substantial hub at the new BBI.

If the traffic and fares were there, why wouldn't they have done so already? I don't see LH adding much just because of a new airport to a city where they've shown little interest.

[Edited 2007-11-29 06:33:22]
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
Drogba
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Thu Nov 29, 2007 5:17 pm

Well, you shouldn't forget ZRH, which will be another hub of LH, after the take over of LX. I think that Lufthansa will settle some long-haul planes at BBI, as they've announced it, but FRA, MUC and ZRH will be their focused Hubs. I'm not so sure about DUS, because AB is very active their, espacially together with LT.
Something else you should not forget is, that Air Berlin has ordered 25(!) Boeing 787 with an option of another 25. They'll be put into service at 2013 and you never can be sure that BBI will open in 2011. If you think about a coorperation of AB and Condor in 2009 they'll even have 9 more 767 and 13 757. Air Berlin is growing and growing and I think that Lufthansa will have a hard stand against them, so I'm really curious what will happen there.
Next trips: TXL-VNO-FRA-ZRH-TXL, TXL-FRA-MAD-MUC-TXL , SXF-NAP-SXF, GWT-TXL
 
eghansen
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Thu Nov 29, 2007 5:29 pm



Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 3):
If the traffic and fares were there, why wouldn't they have done so already? I don't see LH adding much just because of a new airport to a city where they've shown little interest.

Because Tegal is small and restricted. It could never be a major hub.

Quoting Drogba (Reply 4):
Something else you should not forget is, that Air Berlin has ordered 25(!) Boeing 787 with an option of another 25.

Also, when BBI opens, Tegal will close shifting all traffic to the new airport to be combined with the current mostly leisure traffic at Schoenefeld.

******
This whole discussion reminds me of Washington DC in the 1960's and 1970's when the US Capital was considered an unsophisticated backwater town compared to New York and Dulles was a little used airport that everyone hated because it was too far to drive to.

Today Washington is the fourth largest metro area in the US and Dulles is a major hub for United.

I have no doubt that within a few years of its opening, BBI will be a major hub the same size as Munich whether it is for Lufthansa or Air Berlin.
Nowadays, it is hard to tell when the commercials end and real life begins
 
MaverickM11
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Thu Nov 29, 2007 7:10 pm



Quoting Eghansen (Reply 5):
Because Tegal is small and restricted. It could never be a major hub.

Right, but the point is that LH has tried services to TXL, ie Transatlantic, that have not been successful. You need more than a big, nice airport to build a hub.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
Leskova
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Thu Nov 29, 2007 10:12 pm



Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 6):
Right, but the point is that LH has tried services to TXL, ie Transatlantic, that have not been successful. You need more than a big, nice airport to build a hub.

And that is pretty much what it comes down to.

No decent yields, no adding of flights. Just because an airport is there doesn't mean it'll be used.

Take HAJ as an example - my dear hometown has facilities that could easily handle way more than they currently do, the northern runway is sufficient for intercontinental ops; the terminals are built to get you from car to plane in a minimum of time... but, alas, the airport is pretty much ignored by LH and lots of other major airlines.

Mind you, it's not as if the catchment area doesn't have interesting groups in it - VW has its headquaters not too far away in Wolfsburg, and there are quite a few IT companies in the area around Hannover. But: traffic and yields aren't sufficient to support more than the airport gets right now, so the nice facility, more than capable of handling a lot more passengers than it handles today is left unused for an unfortunate high amount of time.

Having a nice airport is simply not all that's important.

BBI will not change that fact.
Smile - it confuses people!
 
eghansen
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens

Thu Nov 29, 2007 10:29 pm



Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 6):
Right, but the point is that LH has tried services to TXL, ie Transatlantic, that have not been successful. You need more than a big, nice airport to build a hub.

Pretty much the same arguments that were made when Strauss airport was built outside Munich. Munich is now a big hub. And the same arguments that were made when Dulles was built outside Washington, which is now a big hub.

BBI is not a backwater attempt to draw traffic with concrete. It will be the only airport serving the capital city of Germany with a population of 3.5 million. It will have a train station under the main terminal with rail service to all of eastern Germany with a catchment area of 16 million people. The catchment area is considerably larger than Denver or Atlanta. Germany is a country with 80 million and only two hubs. Munich is already looking to add a third runway which will be opposed by local residents and environmentalists when BBI opens.

I have no doubt BBI will be a major hub within a few years of opening.
Nowadays, it is hard to tell when the commercials end and real life begins
 
Leskova
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Thu Nov 29, 2007 10:40 pm



Quoting Eghansen (Reply 8):
Pretty much the same arguments that were made when Strauss airport was built outside Munich. Munich is now a big hub.

MUC/Riem was bursting at the seams - all airlines operating into it were desperate for added capacity, which the FJ Strauss airport provided.

TXL/Berlin is not even close to being in the same situation.

Quoting Eghansen (Reply 8):
It will have a train station under the main terminal with rail service to all of eastern Germany with a catchment area of 16 million people.

So? FRA has a train station that offers connections to all of South, West and Northern Germany... DUS has good train connections throughout the western part of this country - and DUS, as opposed to the TXL, actually has quite good yields.

Quoting Eghansen (Reply 8):
Germany is a country with 80 million and only two hubs.

And a third is just about exactly the thing that this country does not need.

Quoting Eghansen (Reply 8):
Munich is already looking to add a third runway which will be opposed by local residents and environmentalists when BBI opens.

Ok... so... a third runway in MUC will be opposed - but a third HUB in Berlin won't?? Please...

Quoting Eghansen (Reply 8):
I have no doubt BBI will be a major hub within a few years of opening.

I have no doubt in my mind that you will be proven wrong.
Smile - it confuses people!
 
SailorOrion
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Fri Nov 30, 2007 7:32 am

LH has stated that they will start a limited number of intercontinental flights from BBI once it opens (sorry I don't find the source right now), however this has little to do with a hub. A hub is something that literally costs billions, maybe even tens of billions to build; it also takes about a decade to build. Look at the MUC example: LH has decided to use MUC as a second hub in about 1995/1996, and it just begins to pay off.

One should also consider that while MUC is a hub, it is mostly a continental Europe hub. In a few years, MUC could even be the most important hub in Europe for intra-European travel, given the current growth rates in traffic and connection passengers. Intercontinental traffic in MUC is not (yet) very important (it's less than a fourth of what FRA gets).

BBI offers nothing that MUC + 3rd runway + T2 expansion and FRA + 4th runway + T3 cannot offer, so why invest 10 billion in another hub?

SailorOrion
 
SailorOrion
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens

Fri Nov 30, 2007 7:47 am

There's another thing to consider: BBI isn't really about adding capacity. BBI isn't even a new airport.

Currently SXF has a sucky terminal and two runways. The runway permit independent operations in any weather condition (theoretically, it's not used like that afaik), however only one take-off and one landing. In a sense, this allows exactly the same operations that LHR has nowadays.

BBI is nothing more than a new terminal for SXF, the extension of one runway, and the relocation of another to allow independent approaches in any weather. BBI also means the closure of four perfectly fine runways in the Berlin area and the closure of facilities which can handle 15 million annual pax. (25 million if the second 'star' in TXL had been built, as it should have 15 years ago). BBI basically cuts capacity, especially airside. Those dipheads aren't even keeping both of SXF's current runways open, even though they could get their op count into 110-120 and give an AAR of 80.

Celestar

[Edited 2007-11-29 23:51:53]
 
EMB170
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Fri Nov 30, 2007 12:59 pm



Quoting SailorOrion (Reply 10):
Intercontinental traffic in MUC is not (yet) very important (it's less than a fourth of what FRA gets).

I don't know, but I used LH to fly ORD-MUC-BUD and return way back in 1998 and, although FJS was new at the time, it already seemed to get its fair share of intercontinental flights (to the US alone, LH served EWR, ORD, SFO and LAX; DL served JFK and ATL; US served PHL). Granted, it wasn't FRA, but it was a nice alternative...I breezed into and out of the airport without my plane having to circle the airport many times or having to wait in a very long line for takeoff.  Smile

So, while MUC may not get the lion's share of flights, I wouldn't venture to say it's fair that "Intercontinental traffic in MUC isn't very important yet"...


EMB170, who prefers MUC to FRA as Germany's hassle-free gateway (dunno if this is still true, though)
IND ORD ATL MCO PIT EWR BUF CVG DEN RNO JFK DTW BOS BDL BWI IAD RDU CLT MYR CHS TPA CID MSP STL MSY DFW IAH AUS SLC LAS
 
Drogba
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Fri Nov 30, 2007 2:12 pm

Well, you should not forget that Delta and Continental are serving TXL and are quite successful (average load = 80%). Okay, they're using B767 and B757, but together it's like one B747. Qatar Airways is serving TXL from DOH and will replace the A300 by an A330 in February (they started with an A319LR!). Berlin has a lot of potential, but TXL is too small for more airlines and the runways are too short. All in all Berlin has around 20 million passengers per year and that almost without any long-haul flights.
LH is quite timid to invest into Berlin, because they made a lot of bad experiences here. But when you look at AB, you can see that it is possible to serve Berlin, without any losses. I don't know, if Lufthansa tries again to make a hub out of Berlin, especially with the big competition between the airlines.
Next trips: TXL-VNO-FRA-ZRH-TXL, TXL-FRA-MAD-MUC-TXL , SXF-NAP-SXF, GWT-TXL
 
SailorOrion
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Sat Dec 01, 2007 9:19 am



Quoting EMB170 (Reply 12):
I don't know, but I used LH to fly ORD-MUC-BUD and return way back in 1998 and, although FJS was new at the time, it already seemed to get its fair share of intercontinental flights

True of course, but nevertheless MUC has much much fewer intercontinental flights by LH than FRA has, whereas the number of continental flights in MUC has meanwhile surpassed FRA.

Quoting EMB170 (Reply 12):
EMB170, who prefers MUC to FRA as Germany's hassle-free gateway (dunno if this is still true, though)

It still is  Smile Will hopefully get even better when T2S opens.

Quoting Drogba (Reply 13):
Well, you should not forget that Delta and Continental are serving TXL and are quite successful (average load = 80%). Okay, they're using B767 and B757, but together it's like one B747. Qatar Airways is serving TXL from DOH and will replace the A300 by an A330 in February (they started with an A319LR!). Berlin has a lot of potential, but TXL is too small for more airlines and the runways are too short. All in all Berlin has around 20 million passengers per year and that almost without any long-haul flights.
LH is quite timid to invest into Berlin, because they made a lot of bad experiences here. But when you look at AB, you can see that it is possible to serve Berlin, without any losses. I don't know, if Lufthansa tries again to make a hub out of Berlin, especially with the big competition between the airlines.

You points are all valid and I agree that LH will probably not open a hub at SXF when AB does so. Few airports/cities can sustain a dual-hub operation. The only really large dual-hub operation in know of is AA/UA in ORD.

SailorOrion
 
PlaneHunter
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Sat Dec 01, 2007 9:32 am



Quoting Eghansen (Reply 5):
I have no doubt that within a few years of its opening, BBI will be a major hub the same size as Munich whether it is for Lufthansa or Air Berlin.

Same size as MUC within a few years? Do you know MUC's current pax figures? I guess not.


PH
Nothing's worse than flying the same reg twice!
 
columba
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Sat Dec 01, 2007 9:32 am



Quoting Drogba (Reply 4):
Something else you should not forget is, that Air Berlin has ordered 25(!) Boeing 787 with an option of another 25. They'll be put into service at 2013 and you never can be sure that BBI will open in 2011. If you think about a coorperation of AB and Condor in 2009 they'll even have 9 more 767 and 13 757. Air Berlin is growing and growing and I think that Lufthansa will have a hard stand against them, so I'm really curious what will happen there.

I agree AB will be the biggest airline at BBI. It is very well liked and if they offer longhaul flights from Berlin I think it will be the airline of choice for many people here. LH will likely station some A330s/A350s or 787s in BER but no A380s or 747-8Is (sadly) and offer some flights to the US east coast (Washington D.C.), Canada and Asia.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
jush
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens

Sat Dec 01, 2007 10:00 am



Quoting Eghansen (Reply 8):
I have no doubt BBI will be a major hub within a few years of opening.

It will not be anything like that within the next 15 to 20 years and that is simply because nobody is interested in the surrounding areas of Berlin cause there is nothing but plain ehhhm nothing.
There are only a lot of tourists where you don't get alot money from. It won't change until there is the Business.

There are plenty of big airports we build after the wall was removed and they are hardly used (i.e. Leipzig that hopefully gets more cargo operations soon)-

Don't see it happen in 2 decades that BBI is becoming a hub or a big transcontinental airport for any airline.

Regds
jush
There is one problem with airbus. Though their products are engineering marvels they lack passion, completely.
 
JoFMO
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Sat Dec 01, 2007 11:02 am



Quoting Jush (Reply 17):
It will not be anything like that within the next 15 to 20 years and that is simply because nobody is interested in the surrounding areas of Berlin cause there is nothing but plain ehhhm nothing.

That is not soooo much different to Munich. Both cities are surrounded by quite unpopulated (in German terms) areas.

But I agree that LH will not transform BBI into a real hub. They already have more than enough. But I am certain that BBI will create the critical mass to sustain long haul travel for LH. I hope that they will also invest in better flights to Europe, but the low costs seem to have already absorbed the market already quite well.
 
stylo777
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Sat Dec 01, 2007 11:25 am

the chance of BBI getting a LH hub is just as HAM, HAJ or STR getting a hub (so almost no!).

BBI = Berlin = Air Berlin  Wink
 
jush
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Sat Dec 01, 2007 12:15 pm



Quoting JoFMO (Reply 18):
That is not soooo much different to Munich. Both cities are surrounded by quite unpopulated (in German terms) areas.

Correct but unlike Berlin Munich has some serious business going on there.

Regds
jush
There is one problem with airbus. Though their products are engineering marvels they lack passion, completely.
 
Glom
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Sat Dec 01, 2007 1:52 pm

LH have a hub in India?
 
columba
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Sat Dec 01, 2007 3:43 pm



Quoting Glom (Reply 21):
LH have a hub in India?

Berlin Brandenburg International but the real airport code will be BER.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
SailorOrion
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Sat Dec 01, 2007 7:40 pm

or SXF if THF remains open

SailorOrion
 
Leskova
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Sat Dec 01, 2007 8:09 pm



Quoting SailorOrion (Reply 23):
or SXF if THF remains open

Doesn't necessarily have to be that way - as an example, FRA is both airport and city-code, which also includes HHN. And I think it's the same for BKK and DMK (or whatever Don Muang's code is now).
Smile - it confuses people!
 
nosedive
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Sat Dec 01, 2007 8:20 pm



Quoting Skyhigh (Thread starter):
No doubt LH will want to build a substantial hub at the new BBI.

BBI is trying to shoot past DUS, not MUC. Why would a city that has, or has recently had, upwards of 10% unemployment? Jobs, and many businesses, are elsewhere in Germany.

I'm still wondering if/when AB will codeshare with anyone (and not buy them  Wink)
 
SailorOrion
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Sun Dec 02, 2007 10:04 am



Quoting Leskova (Reply 24):
Doesn't necessarily have to be that way - as an example, FRA is both airport and city-code

True, same for MUC anyway (AGB is included there); however I basically see little reason why the expansion of SXF should require the change of the airport code.

SailorOrion
 
nosedive
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Mon Dec 03, 2007 9:26 pm



Quoting Viscount724 (Reply 29):
Using BBI is much like using DIA which you also see used unofficially for Denver International Airport although the official code is DEN (which was also the code for the old Stapleton airport before it closed when the current "DIA" opened).

 checkmark 
And DIA may kick ass airside, but its a spotter's nightmare. 56 square miles and then a runway shift.... ahhh rocky mtn high  Silly
 
AussieItaliano
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RE: What Is The Future For LH Hubs After BBI Opens?

Tue Dec 04, 2007 1:46 am



Quoting Jush (Reply 20):
Correct but unlike Berlin Munich has some serious business going on there.

And that is what made MUC a success. If an airport like FJ Strauss were to be built in Antarctica, that would not make it a hub. What made MUC a success was the local economy. Can't say the same for Berlin just yet. Of course I have nothing against Berliners and would love to see a third hub for LH in Berlin, but I can't see it happening until the economy in the former DDR improves drastically to be on par with the original BRD.
Third Runway - LHR, Second Runway - LGW, Build Them Both!!!