roseflyer
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Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 1:15 am

Has anyone else heard about the rumor that United will not receive any new airplanes until the year 2017 for mainline operations? I doubt it is true since I heard it from a pair of pilots, but I'm curious what others think. If it is true, then I can't imagine too much international expansion. Domestic expansion has been exclusively on Regional jets for years, but I'm surprised to hear that UA won't have new planes for 10 more years.

However, I'm sure if there are any mergers, then that number will be thrown out the window. Also, what about current orders that are not fulfilled?

What speculations are out there?

[Edited 2007-12-04 17:24:13]
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
zvezda
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Plantes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 1:17 am

Don't forget that UA have 42 A319/A320s on order.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Plantes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 1:18 am

Well that might be why UA doesn't plan to order new planes - they intend to merge with someone by then.
 
JetBlueGuy2006
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Plantes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 1:19 am

I would be surprised if this is not true, planes get old and need to be replaced. If they want to keep up with all the international expansion that will happen with the A380, 787 and 350, they need to replace.

Also, you might want to delete the T in your title

[Edited 2007-12-04 17:19:59]
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ASAFA
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Plantes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 1:20 am

What is your source for the information?

How could anyone know that they will not place orders for airplanes in the next 10 years? Did they say no orders or they would not take delivery until 2017? By then much of their fleet will be in need of replacement.

I heard that after 5 consecutive quarters of profitability they would be in a position to order new aircraft for expansion, so I would take any of these rumors with a grain of salt.

A lot can happen in 10 years.
 
uadc8contrail
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Plantes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 1:22 am

rose,
where did u hear this rumor???..where ever you heard it, it can not be true....some of the 400s are coming up on 20 years, some of the 300s are pushing 20 as well, with the 42 busses coming online(if it actually happens) they could convert some of those to a 330/350 or 340 but iirc didnt tilton tell the chicago biz community at some conference that it was not going to happen till around 2010....
bus driver.......move that bus:)
 
roseflyer
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 1:26 am



Quoting Uadc8contrail (Reply 6):
where did u hear this rumor???..



Quoting ASAFA (Reply 5):
What is your source for the information?

I heard it from some UA pilots and didn't believe it. I haven't seen any information about new order rumors for United. I however wouldn't be surprised if new planes won't be ordered for a long time, but 10 years before new deliveries seems like a long time.
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
richierich
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 1:32 am



Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 7):
I heard it from some UA pilots and didn't believe it. I haven't seen any information about new order rumors for United. I however wouldn't be surprised if new planes won't be ordered for a long time, but 10 years before new deliveries seems like a long time.

Logic says this can't be true. I mean, who really knows? As ASAFA said, a lot can happen in 10 years and considering we don't even know where UA will be in 10 months or what the airline scene will look like in the USA a decade from now, I'd say this is just pilot banter.

If UA doesn't place an order for new planes within 10 years, I'm guessing that is because they no longer exist. It's unlikely they'll be able to survive running their current fleet to the ground, that's my opinion.
None shall pass!!!!
 
eghansen
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 1:34 am



Quoting JetBlueGuy2006 (Reply 4):
I would be surprised if this is not true, planes get old and need to be replaced. If they want to keep up with all the international expansion that will happen with the A380, 787 and 350, they need to replace.

The following link is from a November 21 article in Business week.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/.../db20071120_389009.htm?chan=search

This is a direct quote from the article:

"One sign of that is United's extended pause on fleet expansion. While other carriers have begun placing orders for new planes, the Chicago company says it plans to rely on its existing fleet of 460 jets until 2015 or 2016. By then the planes will be 20 years old, on average. While United executives say they're simply waiting until the next generation of fuel-efficient, narrow-body jets hits the market, industry insiders believe Tilton (who wasn't available for comment) knows that loading up on pricey plane orders could lessen United's appeal to other carriers."
Nowadays, it is hard to tell when the commercials end and real life begins
 
zvezda
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 1:34 am



Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 7):
I heard it from some UA pilots and didn't believe it.

Some of the most bizarre rumors I've ever heard were from UA line pilots. On the other hand, the rumors I've heard from UA test pilots, while not always true, were always plausible.
 
AABB777
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 1:44 am

My understanding is that UA will not have new aircraft for 'some time'. UA will continue to expand international capacity about 15% over the next 3 years, while shrinking domestic capacity. They also do not have any a/c on order. The fleet you see today is the fleet they will have for some time. Thankfully they are ungrading several produces, including international first and biz. UA is basically putting the 'for sale' sign in the yard and just waiting for a buyer to come along.
 
Bicoastal
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 2:51 am

With economists predicting a global downturn in the economy and a recession in the USA, UA may be very prudent in holding back expensive aircraft orders. Demand for air travel is cyclical. If we are heading in to a period of less demand, United Airlines could be sitting pretty while other airlines with new equipment have a hard time filling seats and paying off huge new debt.
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sh0rtybr0wn
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 2:55 am

I believe it

They decided against 77W, haven't ordered the 787 yet , now they're about 1 year away from not being able to get an A350 until 2017 - if they're lucky.

UA ( and AA too ) have to buy some order up some new widebodies soon or their going to have an antique fleet when everyone else is flying the most efficient state of the art fleet.

Somebody will explain how Boeing is saving 9000 787s for UA and AA, but I'm not buying that idea.

Its like UA is planning on not being in business in 8-10 years; so why get new planes.

If the "no new planes until 2017" is true, they should order A350s, before it reaches 700 plus orders.

There has to be some reason that all the world's biggest and most successful airlines are ordering new efficient widebodies like crazy; while UA orders nothing. I don't get it.
 
zvezda
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 201

Wed Dec 05, 2007 3:10 am



Quoting AABB777 (Reply 11):
They also do not have any a/c on order.

Then please explain the disposition of the 42 A319/A320s that UA have had on deferred order for the last ten years. They have not been delivered. That means they have either been cancelled or they are still on order. If they have been cancelled, can you provide a link?
 
jawake
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 3:10 am



Quoting RoseFlyer (Thread starter):
What speculations are out there?

I have heard something similar. I read their 5 year plan that they make no mention of acquiring new equipment. And honestly, the B787 and the A350 are sold out, so I do not see that before 2017.

Would they go for B747-8? Maybe, I know the A380 made a visit to UA SFO facilities, but that might too much.

I would not be surpise if 10 more years go by without new aircraft. They are in the midst of a major upgrade on their 767s and 747s. We will see.
 
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mariner
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 3:19 am

The rumor was basically confirmed at the Calyon Conference by Jack Brace:

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8TAPKUG0.htm

"Brace said the airline can carry out its next round of international expansion by reconfiguring or shifting airplanes from its domestic operations. "Beyond that 15 percent, at some point we may want to order a handful of international planes," he said."

"A handful of international planes" seems to be it for a while.

mariner
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N174UA
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 4:58 am



Quoting RoseFlyer (Thread starter):
I'm surprised to hear that UA won't have new planes for 10 more years.

I'm not. Apart from the '400s, UA has one of the younger fleets out there.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Thread starter):
What speculations are out there?

The economy is heading toward recession, industry consolidation, Jake Brace announcing that they could ground up to 100 of their unencumbered aircraft to adjust to lower demand...

Quoting Uadc8contrail (Reply 6):
some of the 400s are coming up on 20 years

Including the inspiration for my username...N174UA joined the fleet in January 1990, making it one of the oldest 400's they fly.

Quoting Richierich (Reply 8):
If UA doesn't place an order for new planes within 10 years, I'm guessing that is because they no longer exist.

Or they could be double the size. Who knows? Like politics, 10 years is an eternity in this industry. If we do head into recession, like I think we are, then it's entirely possible UA could pick up some aircraft really cheap. Or it could be through a merger.

Quoting Mariner (Reply 16):
"Brace said the airline can carry out its next round of international expansion by reconfiguring or shifting airplanes from its domestic operations. "Beyond that 15 percent, at some point we may want to order a handful of international planes," he said."

"A handful of international planes" seems to be it for a while

Depending on the age of the domestic 763's and 772's, UA would have to invest in refurbishing those planes for 3-class service. I'd have to see the analysis (i.e. NPV) before I agree if it's worth it do that. Or, they pick up planes from someone else on a wetlease or if a competitor fails.
 
hnl-jack
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 7:40 am

If UA intends to add to the fleet beginning in 2017 and if that's long range widebody equipment, they'll need to make an order in the next two years, unless the order is for the B-748 or A-380. At the rate the 787 and A-350 are selling the production will be sold out though 2017 in the foreseeable future. The recent HA order for the A-350 as part of their A-330-200 order appears to have been made to insure aircraft availability.
 
AirframeAS
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 7:56 am



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 10):
Some of the most bizarre rumors I've ever heard were from UA line pilots.

Or ANY pilot for that matter.... As someone said earlier: Alot can happen in 10 years. Airlines cannot really predict what will happen in 10 years, let alone 3 months.

Can someone do a breakdown on UA's active fleet including the planes stored in the desert (excluding permanent retired aircraft)?? I am assuming UA has some 772's still in storage here in Arizona, but not retired.
A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
 
UAL777UK
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 11:44 am



Quoting HNL-Jack (Reply 17):
At the rate the 787 and A-350 are selling the production will be sold out though 2017 in the foreseeable future.

As has been stated time and time again on here, A & B, particularly B will have slots available for the like of UA, AA and DL, should they decide to make a sizeable order for the 787. They will NOT have to wait until 2017 or alike for those babies to join theitr fleets.
 
columba
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 11:52 am



Quoting RoseFlyer (Thread starter):
that United will not receive any new airplanes until the year 2017 for mainline

You said will not receive any new airplanes before 2017, with the A350 and 787 being sold out for years the earlist aircraft they would get would arrive around that time.
It will forever be a McDonnell Douglas MD 80 , Boeing MD 80 sounds so wrong
 
PlunaCRJ
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 12:07 pm

Quoting Bicoastal (Reply 11):
With economists predicting a global downturn in the economy and a recession in the USA, UA may be very prudent in holding back expensive aircraft orders. Demand for air travel is cyclical. If we are heading in to a period of less demand, United Airlines could be sitting pretty while other airlines with new equipment have a hard time filling seats and paying off huge new debt.

   Totally agree. What I would do in the case of United (and if I had money) is to sell most of the 777´s, 747´s and all the 767´s and replace them with a smaller fleet of 787´s. They could also pocket the money from the sell of all the planes they currently fly.

In case of an economic recession UA will have the advantage to offer less capacity (less smaller newer aircraft) whilst having the top in aviation technology and don´t worry about fleet trouble for many years. This is UA´s opportunity to order aircraft.

Quoting RoseFlyer (Thread starter):
United will not receive any new airplanes until the year 2017 for mainline

For MAINLINE. Could we see a dramatic increase of regional aircraft flying as United Express domestic?

[Edited 2007-12-05 04:09:58]
 
UnitedTristar
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 12:31 pm



Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 18):
I am assuming UA has some 772's still in storage here in Arizona, but not retired.

Incorrect. UA has done all possible to get more usage out of its fleet. If they had planes in storage, they wouldn't be looking as desperately for equipment time as they are now.

-m

 airplane 
 
AABB777
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 1:04 pm



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 13):
Then please explain the disposition of the 42 A319/A320s that UA have had on deferred order for the last ten years. They have not been delivered. That means they have either been cancelled or they are still on order. If they have been cancelled, can you provide a link?

I've not see any news link that confirms the ' no a/c on order' statement. My source is a high-level UA exec. The info could be wrong, or could be correct for now until UA 'needs' new a/c. Also told that UA in a 'perfect world' would only like to have three a/c types - for example, only A320s, 787s, and 777s - but that is pretty far off.
 
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Stitch
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 1:07 pm



Quoting UAL777UK (Reply 19):
As has been stated time and time again on here, A & B, particularly B will have slots available for the like of UA, AA and DL, should they decide to make a sizeable order for the 787. They will NOT have to wait until 2017 or alike for those babies to join theitr fleets.

Unless 787 production will not be as fast as Boeing expects. If Boeing can only average 80-90 planes a year for a couple of years instead of the planned 120, that will push deliveries out even more. Some believe Boeing on Tuesday will announce they will not be able to meet their 2009 production ramp and will fall short by 30% or more.
 
birdbrainz
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 1:24 pm

If there is a global downturn, you'll see lots of order cancellations. Maybe UA is thinking that it can scoop up some of the excess planes that other people bought, and get them at fire sale prices. Just a thought.
A good landing is one you can walk away from. A great landing is if the aircraft can be flown again.
 
jacobin777
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 201

Wed Dec 05, 2007 1:40 pm



Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 12):
They decided against 77W

....they haven't specifically stated they won't order the B77W, the fact they aren't ordering wide-bodies probably indicates they won't be ordering the B77W.

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 12):
haven't ordered the 787 yet

...and? They can still place an order in a year or so and get some early slots as well as frames by 2014.......

Quoting Sh0rtybr0wn (Reply 12):
Somebody will explain how Boeing is saving 9000 787s for UA and AA, but I'm not buying that idea.

......9000....sure... sarcastic 
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jfk787nyc
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 2:01 pm

Economic downturn does not mean anything drastic. There are global players involved now not just the United States. Brazil Russia India China are Half the WORLD's population and they are all making more money than they have ever imagined.

Just out on Bloomberg US Productivity rose 6.3% more in the THIRD Quarter than what was expected, WHY? Because we are a Dollar Based Country and will obviously always be. The United States is finally bringing back work to the States instead of outsourcing it. There is nothing to worry about expect the dollar falling and OIL rising because it is a Dollar pegged commodity. So, if United and all the other carriers don't hurry up and order planes as fast as possible prices for these planes will go way up because the cost of production will go up on these planes. Not, because the cost of labor is going up but because the cost of the commodities will be going up in a dollar value.

Basically, The number one thing big business in the United States should do right now is to get into DEBT, Our Federal Reserve is on a mission to speed up inflation in the United States to help all of the sub-prime mortgage people out there.
If you are locked into a contract today for $50'000 monthly, In three years the $50'000 dollars will feel like $35'000 Dollars. So, these airlines must start moving much faster.
 
jawake
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 2:13 pm

Sorry to ask this question, but what is a 77W?

Are we talking about the 777-300?
 
africawings
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 2:40 pm

The danger with United's business approach is that they can easily rationalize themselves right out of business (I've seen this happen before). In other words, while they are correct in their thinking in terms of saving money and cutting costs by using older planes, fickle passengers like me (who is a Premier Executive Gold Customer on United by the way) will eventually switch in droves to a different airline when that airline starts to introduce newer planes. That's the intangible they (United management) don't account for (it's what we create in marketing; the reason to believe in one airline over another...newer planes in the target customer's minds = more safety and more comfort).

So, when guys like us (airliners.net) start talking about the new IFE on board and how well the new 787 for example flies...I promise you that a large number of passenger will switch and United will be bought out (unless that is their intention all along).

I switched 10 years ago from Northwest to United (initially for my job) but I stayed with United once I got to fly their then new 777s. So, if anyone here works with United, please spread the word!
 
PRAirbus
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 2:46 pm

I think anyone could same the same about AA too...no new orders on AA's horizon except for a few 738s and some 777s here and there...the A300s are falling apart, very unreliable and dirty...yet the CEO keeps getting bonuses and passengers have to fly on dingy, old and dirty jets...WELCOME to the post 9/11 era of US Majors...things will get worse especially w/the price of oil and upcoming contract negotiations.
 
EXAAUADL
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 2:51 pm



Quoting Stitch (Reply 2):
Well that might be why UA doesn't plan to order new planes - they intend to merge with someone by then.

it is almost as though UA is purposely mismanaging istself for the long term
 
brilondon
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 2:54 pm

First off the headline should read "until" and you would give yourself more credit. Second, UA would probably not say much about its fleet plans that far into the future for all the above reasons. If you heard it from a couple of pilots I would question what they are hearing if it is from an official source or just water cooler gossip.
Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
 
richierich
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 2:54 pm



Quoting N174UA (Reply 16):
Or they could be double the size. Who knows? Like politics, 10 years is an eternity in this industry. If we do head into recession, like I think we are, then it's entirely possible UA could pick up some aircraft really cheap. Or it could be through a merger.

Yes - I was not hinting that I think UA will cease to exist in 10 years, although it is a distinct possibility for any airline in the USA I suppose. Indeed they could be double the size too, no question about that.
None shall pass!!!!
 
brilondon
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 2:59 pm



Quoting Jawake (Reply 28):
Sorry to ask this question, but what is a 77W?

Are we talking about the 777-300?

Yes.
Rush for ever; Yankees all the way!!
 
halls120
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 3:25 pm



Quoting Africawings (Reply 29):
In other words, while they are correct in their thinking in terms of saving money and cutting costs by using older planes, fickle passengers like me (who is a Premier Executive Gold Customer on United by the way) will eventually switch in droves to a different airline when that airline starts to introduce newer planes.

That is one view.

The other view is that once UA reconfigures the first and business sections of their existing international fleet, some premier executive UA customers (like me) won't particularly care that UA isn't first on the block to get the 787's.

After all, if the lie-flat seat on a 767 is similar to what UA would order for the 787, what's the big deal?

As long as my seat is comfortable and up to date, and the airframe is properly maintained, I could care less what aircraft I'm flying.

I actually prefer the 767's, as it means fewer people to contend with at immigration, customs, and baggage.
"Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of Congress. But I repeat myself." Mark Twain, a Biography
 
sh0rtybr0wn
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 3:51 pm

That idea of Boeing saving UA copious 787 slots is getting old. Soon Boeing will be "saving" them slots for 2016.

It just seems odd that people continue to strongly defend UA for having amazing business sense to not order any new efficient longhaul airplanes; even at a time when all the worlds best, most profitable airlines are indeed ordering these new fuel efficient planes.
Shouldn't UA be able to put a minimum down payment for 789s and 748s if they're such great Boeing customers?
So where are all the articles about what bad decisions ANA, JAL, SQ, QF, AC, VS, AF, LH and other airlines have made buying new planes? Will they all be in trouble when oil is $200 USD a barrel and UA is happily flying 767s?
It seems to me that UA, and maybe a couple other legacy carriers can make enough money to stay in business now, but not to afford new planes. That may work for a while, but wont that fleet strategy and rising fuel costs cause further bankruptcies in the future?
 
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Stitch
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 4:16 pm



Quoting Jawake (Reply 28):
Sorry to ask this question, but what is a 77W? Are we talking about the 777-300?

Specifically, the 777-300ER.

The 777-300 is the 773.

Quoting Africawings (Reply 29):
The danger with United's business approach is that they can easily rationalize themselves right out of business (I've seen this happen before). In other words, while they are correct in their thinking in terms of saving money and cutting costs by using older planes, fickle passengers like me will eventually switch in droves to a different airline when that airline starts to introduce newer planes.



Quoting Halls120 (Reply 35):
The other view is that once UA reconfigures the first and business sections of their existing international fleet, some premier executive UA customers (like me) won't particularly care that UA isn't first on the block to get the 787's. After all, if the lie-flat seat on a 767 is similar to what UA would order for the 787, what's the big deal?

Halls120 is dead-on. It is what is inside the shell that counts more then the shell itself.

If you put UA's old "cradle" Business Class seats and IFE in a 787 and their new lie-flat seats and IFE in a 767, which plane would you fly?
 
unitednrt
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 201

Wed Dec 05, 2007 4:25 pm



Quoting PlunaCRJ (Reply 21):
For MAINLINE. Could we see a dramatic increase of regional aircraft flying as United Express domestic?

The United Express operation will continue to grow well into 2008, albeit not the double-digit percentage increases since 2003 YOY, but new markets will be added as well as supplementing the overall mainline operation. A 3-4% domestic ASM drop will be supplemented by United Express increases with 70-seat capacity.
"...That's a lovely name. My name's Milton; Milton Ettenheim, but my friends call me Bubbles."
 
Flighty
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 201

Wed Dec 05, 2007 4:30 pm



Quoting EXAAUADL (Reply 31):

it is almost as though UA is purposely mismanaging istself for the long term

Suddenly every airline is supposed to buy new jets every 10 years? UA comprehensively renewed their whole fleet in the last 15 or so years. They are set for the next 10, without a problem.

There won't be any new technology before 2017 anyway. The 763ER is superior to the B788 in some ways, unless you need more freight capacity.

With new, fresh interiors, UA will have a good product in the coming 10 years, and around 2017, they will upgrade at an ideal time -- their existing birds used up.

My only question is whether the 744s will last that long. New 773ERs may be better. But clearly, UA thinks they can wait for the A350-1k, the A389, or the wishes of a merger partner. The pax 744s will last another 5 years, but 10, that's pushing it in terms of their economic lives IMO.
 
africawings
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 4:31 pm



Quoting Halls120 (Reply 35):

As long as my seat is comfortable and up to date, and the airframe is properly maintained, I could care less what aircraft I'm flying.

I actually prefer the 767's, as it means fewer people to contend with at immigration, customs, and baggage.

---

Interesting perspective. I thought I absolutely loved the DC 10-30 until the 777 arrived in United's fleet. I feel much safer on newer aircraft and would pay extra to fly on them (to your point about the 767 and smaller loads, the 787-300's are basically the same size as a 767-300 so you can still get through immigration quicker)

As a marketer and economist, the law of diminishing returns weighs heavily on my mind when I fly no matter how well they are maintained ...they are old airframes for a reason ( think TWA 800 and the United flight the lost pat of the cargo door due to metal fatigue over Hawaii in 1984)
 
tcfc424
Posts: 444
Joined: Mon Nov 17, 2003 11:56 am

RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 5:37 pm

I think there are 3 possible reasons for United holding off on placing aircraft orders.

1) They want to wait until contract negotiations have been completed so they know just what they can afford. (That should be mid-2009 if things go right)

2) They want to use a new aircraft order as a bargaining chip for the pilot's contract bargaining. (Dangle a carrot, so to speak)

3) They are looking for a merger partner and want to withhold creating extra debt that would lessen the chance of having a suitable dancing partner.

I believe, really that it could be a combination of all of these issues. The latter is probably the most important right now, and worth waiting for IMHO. Sure, consolidation has been "on the horizon" since 9/11, however with the economy slowing, the catalyst to set off the chain of events could be coming into play. Perhaps if none of that consolidation occurs within the next year, contract talks will be hot and heavy and UA will start looking at aircraft orders.

Just out of curiosity, what is they delivery timeframe for 737's and 319/320's?
 
hnl-jack
Posts: 251
Joined: Wed Mar 14, 2001 10:34 pm

RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 5:50 pm



Quoting UAL777UK (Reply 19):
As has been stated time and time again on here, A & B, particularly B will have slots available for the like of UA, AA and DL, should they decide to make a sizeable order for the 787. They will NOT have to wait until 2017 or alike for those babies to join their fleets.

I've never heard Boeing or Airbus "officially" state that...and if that is the case, the manufacturers won't wait forever if others want earlier delivery and are willing to place "firm orders."
 
SFORunner
Posts: 306
Joined: Fri Jul 30, 2004 4:23 am

RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 5:51 pm



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 13):
Then please explain the disposition of the 42 A319/A320s that UA have had on deferred order for the last ten years. They have not been delivered. That means they have either been cancelled or they are still on order. If they have been cancelled, can you provide a link?

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/cgi-bin/news.pl?id=19059&seenIt=1

Quote:
The carrier also has asked for bankruptcy court approval of an agreement with Airbus to defer delivery of 42 aircraft from the A320 family.

In court documents filed late on Friday, UAL said delaying the delivery is an acceptable alternative to taking delivery or rejecting the purchase agreements with Airbus.

"Under the amended agreement, the deliveries of these aircraft will be deferred to 2011 and beyond, consistent with the company's plan of reorganization," said UAL spokeswoman Jean Medina.

 
Flighty
Posts: 7651
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:07 am

RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 6:07 pm



Quoting HNL-Jack (Reply 42):
I've never heard Boeing or Airbus "officially" state that...and if that is the case, the manufacturers won't wait forever if others want earlier delivery and are willing to place "firm orders."

Okay. But it's still true that AA, DL, UA are each capable of 100-200 787 or A350 over time, again that's 100+ _each_.

A lot of backs can get scratched in a 100 frame order... and those orders _will_ eventually hit, Boeing and Airbus both know that. So, are B & A doing a bit of anticipatory hand-rubbing over those orders, yes, I should think so.

But, we're probably talking about deliveries 8-10 years out.
 
AirframeAS
Posts: 9811
Joined: Thu Feb 05, 2004 3:56 pm

RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 7:27 pm



Quoting TCFC424 (Reply 41):
Just out of curiosity, what is they delivery timeframe for 737's and 319/320's?

IIRC, the timeframe for a spanking brand new 737 for an order placed today would be delivered around 2013. I remember a thread all about the huge backlog of 737 orders. As for the A320 family, I don't know. I don't follow Airbus, respectfully.
A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
 
Danny
Posts: 3714
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2002 3:44 am

RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 7:39 pm



Quoting Zvezda (Reply 13):
Then please explain the disposition of the 42 A319/A320s that UA have had on deferred order for the last ten years. They have not been delivered. That means they have either been cancelled or they are still on order. If they have been cancelled, can you provide a link?



Quoting SFORunner (Reply 43):
"Under the amended agreement, the deliveries of these aircraft will be deferred to 2011 and beyond, consistent with the company's plan of reorganization," said UAL spokeswoman Jean Medina.

That is correct. UA still have those 42 Airbus aircraft on order with deliveries scheduled between 2011 and 2015.
 
bmacleod
Posts: 2450
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2001 3:10 am

RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 7:44 pm

I wonder if Boeing's 747-8 team has heard this rumor. It would be bad news for them as UA is a favorite for the 747-8I.

Of course if they do merge with DL and DL takes over, DL would probably prefer the 77W. Or they may prefer to wait for the yet-to-be-developed Y3.
The engine is the heart of an airplane, but the pilot is its soul.
 
ikramerica
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RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 8:02 pm



Quoting Bmacleod (Reply 47):
I wonder if Boeing's 747-8 team has heard this rumor. It would be bad news for them as UA is a favorite for the 747-8I.

I can't see UA holding on to their oldest 744s until 2017. Just too old. now NW? sure, but UA is going to have to either retire them for smaller planes (77W) or replace them with VLA (748i or A388). And they won't wait until 2017 to start.

So I find the veracity of the rumor to be questionable.
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
NWAROOSTER
Posts: 1030
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2005 2:29 pm

RE: Rumor: United Airlines: No New Planes Till 2017

Wed Dec 05, 2007 10:36 pm

If Northwest Airlines can fly their DC-9s into eternity, Why can't United fly their existing fleet of 737s, A319s and A320s that long? Northwest's DC-9s are about 30 years old and still flying. Also, with the good possibility of mergers, buying new aircraft can wait. There will be fleets to combine!  old 
Procrastination Is The Theft Of Time.......