LAXintl
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DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:31 pm

Could be interesting to see what an auction would do to airlines that have maintained long standing grand father type operations at JFK.

Quote:
DOT Considering Slot Auctions Instead Of Congestion Pricing
12/10/2007

The U.S. Transportation Dept. is backing away from congestion pricing for New York airports, and sources say DOT is instead looking at slot auctions as well as extending flight caps to all three New York region airports.

DOT officials last week told industry representatives it will not carry out its threat to introduce congestion pricing to alleviate New York delays but still wants to bring in some sort of market mechanism for New York, and has indicated some type of slot auction system could be proposed.

Also, DOT is believed to be considering extending the flight caps to all three New York area airports, partly to address concerns that airlines could cut flights at JFK and add them at Newark.

Full story (subscription required)
http://www.aviationweek.com/publicat...ions+Instead+Of+Congestion+Pricing
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STT757
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 4:57 pm

I don't know if it's mentioned in this article, it was mentioned elsewhere that the lottery would take into account airlines who have already made significant infrastructure investments in their respective facilities at EWR and JFK.

This would protect CO at EWR, who have made Billions in improvements to their facilities in the course of the 20 years CO has been operating their EWR hub. AA who just completed a Billion Dollar investment in a new Terminal, and B6 who is in the midst of a very substantial Terminal redevelopment.

It's unclear where DL would stand as they have not invested near what CO, AA and B6 have invested in their facilities.
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flyingcat
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 5:00 pm

Interesting.

Although If this occurs B6 will be hamstrung for growth in NYC without committing to frames larger than an Airbus narrowbody. Im sure they could move slots around but this will force them to expand elsewhere. IAD perhaps.

[Edited 2007-12-09 09:00:52]
 
goboeing
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 5:03 pm

EWR simply cannot continue to operate the way it is right now.

Everything scheduled to arrive after 1PM coming from within 2000 miles is groundstopped or gets a lengthy EDCT time even on days with no wind or weather.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 5:08 pm

Freakin duh!

Peak pricing only works on public transportation such as highways, busses or trains where route flexibility does not exist and the only way to offset a peak is to ramp up cost at the prefered time to travel. If you put a premium on flights during the peak time, the airlines simply pay it and redistribute it across all the flights at the airport over the course of the day, or on a macro scale across their entire fleet of a similar type of aircraft where 3-4 flights a day at a single airport is hardly a pin-prick in the overall cost of doing business. The "peak pricing" crap/"contingent valuation method is the biggest load of BS I've ever heard of. The FAA was stupid enough to listen to academia who have been pushing this on airports for nearly a decade, what a bunch of clowns.
 
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SLCUT2777
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 5:24 pm



Quoting Flyingcat (Reply 2):
IAD perhaps.

Do what Indy Air did?

Quoting GoBoeing (Reply 3):
EWR simply cannot continue to operate the way it is right now.

Everything scheduled to arrive after 1PM coming from within 2000 miles is groundstopped or gets a lengthy EDCT time even on days with no wind or weather.

It's almost a given every day there are or will be ground stops going into one of the three NYC airports. Usually all three.
Hopefully slot restrictions will convince some if not all carriers to at least be judicious with their CRJ flights into these airports. Hopefully many will not choose to use CRJs into NYC.
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JGPH1A
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 5:41 pm

Why not put an aircraft minimum size limit on the vast majority of slots, thereby encouraging carriers to reduce frequencies and introduce larger aircraft instead ? Does Podunk, NH really need 3 RJ's a day from JFK ? Wouldn't one per day timed to coincide more or less with intercontinental arrivals/departures banks be enough ?
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jetblueguy22
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 5:48 pm

Why are the airlines focusing just on JFK. What the DOT should do is to give the airlines some type of incentive if they go to surrounding airports for their domestic flights. SWF and HPN have plenty of slots. They may not have the longest runways but they can handle some smaller aircraft. The airlines who are trying to tap in to the NY,CT, and NJ markets should consider those airports for hubs. They can build terminals and not have a bunch of competition. I have friends that go out of JFK everyday and would love to see some of the smaller airports utilized more.
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LAXintl
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 6:08 pm



Quoting STT757 (Reply 1):
I don't know if it's mentioned in this article, it was mentioned elsewhere that the lottery would take into account airlines who have already made significant infrastructure investments in their respective facilities at EWR and JFK.

No mention of any special rights for carriers having invested in facilities.

Only that the DOT sees a 80'ish flight hourly limit at JFK while the airport is running at 100+ so cuts could occur across all operators including international carriers and that the DOT was warming up to IATA's slot lottery model.

Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 6):
Does Podunk, NH really need 3 RJ's a day from JFK ?

Goes back to a very basic principle of equal access to smaller communities which has always been a big part of US transportation policy. Anyhow, looking at an airport like LGA airlines obviously enjoy operating those CRJ flights to Podunk as they must be bringing in good cash.
In addition any move away from such policy that could jeopardize service from smaller communities would have the areas Congressional delegation up in arms.

Quoting Jetblueguy22 (Reply 7):
HPN have plenty of slots.

Suggest you talk to the good residents of Westchester County. The shoe box of a terminal at HPN, does have hourly capacity limits which are reached for a good portion of the day and limit any meaningful increase in flights.
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FFlyer
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 6:09 pm



Quoting Jetblueguy22 (Reply 7):
SWF and HPN have plenty of slots. They may not have the longest runways but they can handle some smaller aircraft.

As far as reported in media, SWF actually has one of the longest runways in the country. Capable of handling anything up to A380, AN-225, or Space Shuttle.
 
ANother
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 6:12 pm

Auctioning,  scratchchin  Interesting idea. Some questions:

1. Where do they get the slots to auction? Do the confiscate a set percentage, say 10%. Or do they take them all?
2. After an airline 'buys' them through an auction, do they really own them - or is just a lease for a fixed period of time? 6 month schedules period, for example.
3. What happens if they don't use them (say 80% of the time)? Do they lose them, and do they get a refund?
4. Can anyone buy, or just airlines? and why?
5. What if an airline can't afford to pay up front? Can they pay over time ... so much a month?
6. What happens to the money? Goes to the airport? to the FAA? to the US taxpayers?
7. If the airport gets some or all of the money, where is the incentive for them to improve infrastructure? Isn't this an incentive for them to not improve? Same question if FAA gets the money.
8. Can an airline buy a slot, with the intention of not using it? This would have some pretty nasty anti-competitive effects.

While searching for 'market-based' solutions this isn't it. Using the buy-sell rule would be a (not perfect but) better solution.
 
LAXintl
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 6:30 pm

The IATA slot system has been developed over the years (near 60) as pretty much an international standard that allows the use of a limited resource in an unbiased and efficient manner.

Slots are allocated according to historical precedence so an air carrier with a 4:20pm departure last summer timetable will get the same 4:20pm slot next summer unless they failed to operate it.

Some highlights are:
1) Slots are allocated on bi-annual basis.
2) Airlines require 80% usage factor (completion&ontime) to retain historical slots
3) Slots that fall short of the 80% mark return to a pool
4) 50% of slots in the pool are allocated to 'new entrants' as defined with 4 or less current operations at the airport.
5) Remaining 50% of pool slots are allocated based on consideration of various criteria including competition, aircraft mix, service on a new route etc..

Now how the DOT would manage to switch JFK from a free for all, to a slot system overnight particularly in light that everyone agrees some sort of overall flight cuts are needed and some carriers would be left empty handed is the million dollar question.
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Cubsrule
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 6:50 pm

Does anyone know what the DoT can and cannot do at JFK without Congressional approval? I know if ORD goes back to 'real' slots, Congress would have to approve it... not sure if the same is true at JFK.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
4) 50% of slots in the pool are allocated to 'new entrants' as defined with 4 or less current operations at the airport.

I suspect the FAA would define 'new entrants' as 8 operations or fewer just to keep it consistent with ORD.

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 4):
If you put a premium on flights during the peak time, the airlines simply pay it and redistribute it across all the flights at the airport over the course of the day, or on a macro scale across their entire fleet of a similar type of aircraft where 3-4 flights a day at a single airport is hardly a pin-prick in the overall cost of doing business. The "peak pricing" crap/"contingent valuation method is the biggest load of BS I've ever heard of. The FAA was stupid enough to listen to academia who have been pushing this on airports for nearly a decade, what a bunch of clowns.

Peak pricing has further implications for JFK, though, because it will affect B6 much less than either DL or AA... I'm not advocating one way or another, but it's something to keep in mind.
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bobnwa
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 7:08 pm



Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 6):
Does Podunk, NH really need 3 RJ's a day from JFK ? Wouldn't one per day timed to coincide more or less with intercontinental arrivals/departures banks be enough ?

Do you think that all the people traveling from Podunk to JFK are making an intercontinental trip? I don't think so. I would say very few are.
 
ANother
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 7:08 pm



Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
The IATA slot system has been developed over the years (near 60) as pretty much an international standard that allows the use of a limited resource in an unbiased and efficient manner.

Two comments on this;

1. While it is an international standard - many countries use it for all operations (International and domestic) at their airports - in reality it has to be all ops, or it wouldn't work properly.

2. Although the Schedules Conferences are managed by IATA, it is open to any airline IATA member or not. The last meeting in Toronto had almost 1000 participants (people, not airlines/airports/coordinators).
 
Jerseyguy
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 7:28 pm



Quoting Flyingcat (Reply 2):
Although If this occurs B6 will be hamstrung for growth in NYC without committing to frames larger than an Airbus narrowbody. Im sure they could move slots around but this will force them to expand elsewhere. IAD perhaps

Someone has to say it so I will

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LAXintl
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 10:08 pm



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 12):
I suspect the FAA would define 'new entrants' as 8 operations or fewer just to keep it consistent with ORD.

I doubt it. Unlike ORD where international carriers were exempt a JFK program would include them.

By setting a high threshold, foreign carriers would be free to continue growing under the guise of 'new entrant' while US airlines would be blocked, so I very much doubt DOT would allow such a loop whole at JFK which clearly has much more international demand then ORD.
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eghansen
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 10:46 pm



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 12):
Does anyone know what the DoT can and cannot do at JFK without Congressional approval? I know if ORD goes back to 'real' slots, Congress would have to approve it... not sure if the same is true at JFK.

Congress passed legislation in 2000 ending slots at ORD in 2002 and JFK on January 1, 2007. They would have to pass legislation before the FAA could return to using slots.
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bok269
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 11:05 pm



Quoting Laxintl (Reply 8):
Suggest you talk to the good residents of Westchester County. The shoe box of a terminal at HPN, does have hourly capacity limits which are reached for a good portion of the day and limit any meaningful increase in flights.

 checkmark  Expansion at HPN, SWF, TTN, etc., has the potential to relieve the pressure put on the big three. The problem is that the service from these three seem under advertised, and above all the obvious capacity restraints and local objections. If those in the area who complain about the minor noise issue were to see how a little bit of noise could help keep them from sitting in a 2 hour taxi out, maybe things will start to change. However, one thing they cannot emulate at these airports is the amount of non-stop destinations served as well as variety of carriers.
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commavia
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 11:08 pm

Will the madness never end?

We need more runways, and more efficient airspace use, and better ATC. We don't need to be artificially constraining capacity even more.

Quoting STT757 (Reply 1):
I don't know if it's mentioned in this article, it was mentioned elsewhere that the lottery would take into account airlines who have already made significant infrastructure investments in their respective facilities at EWR and JFK.

This would protect CO at EWR, who have made Billions in improvements to their facilities in the course of the 20 years CO has been operating their EWR hub. AA who just completed a Billion Dollar investment in a new Terminal, and B6 who is in the midst of a very substantial Terminal redevelopment.

Why that is encouraging - as airlines like CO, B6 and AA should be "compensated" (in this hypothetical slot scheme) for the immense investment they've made - this has trouble written all over it. If the FAA only repossesses, say (and I'm just using these numbers for argument) 5% of the slots/take-off positions that CO, B6 and AA have, but repossess 10% of everyone else' slots/take-off positions, you'll have lawsuits, claims of unfair treatment, of bias against companies too small or too new to have had the equal opportunity to invest in their own terminals.

I agree that if a slot repossession/reallocation system does come to pass, and if airlines like CO, B6 and AA aren't as hard-hit by it because of their new terminals, the biggest loser will definitely be DL. DL already has pretty much the most to lose, along with B6, at JFK, as those two airlines alone are responsible for probably 50% - at least - of the new flying at JFK in the last 2-3 years. If DL has to give up more slots than AA or B6, I doubt they'll just accept that quietly without a fight, which is why I tend to doubt it will happen that way.
 
DAL767400ER
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Sun Dec 09, 2007 11:30 pm



Quoting Commavia (Reply 19):
We need more runways,

But remember that new runways are evil and would only lead to more flights being added instead of reducing delays, althewhile cutting down poor trees and filling innocent up innocents waters with rubble.

/end treehugger bullcrap

And as much anybody on here wants to see Jamaica Bay filled up with rubble to provide space for a new 13R/31R (might as well fill up Flushing Bay for a new 13L/31R at LGA as well), it just won't happen with all the environmental paranoia in this world these days.
 
LGA777
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA &

Sun Dec 09, 2007 11:59 pm

For those of you who don't follow LGA closely it is getting really bad again ATC wise. As other's have said some sort of GDP happens basically around 1400-1600 lcl six days a week and often lasts till late at night(Saturday is usually ok due to hugely reduced schedules) regardless of the weather, Last Thursday was an exception, severe clear and no GDP or either one with no significant EDICT times then the shit hit the fan. From 1500-1700 lcl takeoff que was about 60-70 mins long but the inbounds just kept on coming. Finally by 1700 there was no where to put the inbounds so all arrivals did a right turn after landing on 22 and qued up near the MAT. 45-60 mins became the average time from touchdown to block in and still 60 to now 90 min waits in line for takeoff. Finally around 1800 a Ground stop was issued followed by a significant GDP and by around 1930 lcl the gridlock was completely over. This situation is starting to remind me of 2000 and I hope something is done to reduce congestion and delays. For anyone reading this who needs to fly out of LGA and be on time book an Originator departure and you will be fine. Try to avoid anything after 1400 lcl unless delays are not going to be a big problem for your trip!

Regards

LGA777
 
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DocLightning
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 12:14 am

I've said it several times and I'll say it again.

On any given weekday, there are about 28 non-stop flights (when you account for code-shares) from the three NYC airports to SFO. The vast majority of these flights occur on aircraft the size of a 757 or smaller. DL uses a 738 on a number of these routes.

NOBODY needs to choose between 28 flights per day. Five or six would offer quite adequate flexibility.

If these 28 flights could be compressed into 5-6 flights per day by using large aircraft that would save some 22 flights per day. Now, imagine the same stunt being pulled for MIA, ORD, LAX, LAS, SLC, and every other major hub airline with an absurd number of flights being flown on small a/c. That alone might save as many as 300 flights/day.

And what about the little guys like B6? They can either suck it up and buy a 787/A330 for those routes or they can code-share with other airlines. But there's a point at which frequency ceases to matter because no matter what time my flight is scheduled to leave, it's not leaving then... or if it does leave, then it sits on the ground for 3 hours.
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Cubsrule
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 12:37 am



Quoting Laxintl (Reply 16):
By setting a high threshold, foreign carriers would be free to continue growing under the guise of 'new entrant' while US airlines would be blocked, so I very much doubt DOT would allow such a loop whole at JFK which clearly has much more international demand then ORD.

Are there any carriers that have between 4 and 8 flights right now? BA has 8, so they're likely to get regulated regardless. AF is the only carrier for which I think the number would matter, as I can't think of any other carrier that wants to grow a whole lot. LH might add a flight to DUS at some point, but that would put them at 4 exactly.
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LAXintl
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:05 am



Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 23):
Are there any carriers that have between 4 and 8 flights right now?

Just about every foreign airline at JFK <8 flights per day.

Would it be ok for Virgin, Air Jamaica, TACA, Air Canada, Mexicana, Emirates, Cathay, Avianca, Swiss etc.. to keep growing during peak traffic times while others (namely US carriers) would be stuck year after year holding the same frequencies will almost no hope of growth.

If anything I could see the DOT/FAA applying the strictest litmus test for any new entrants to ensure competition is not tilted in favor or against any single or group of airlines.
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klwright69
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA &

Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:11 am

This will get very interesting...

EWR has never been slot controlled, so it is interesting to see the FAA including EWR in any proposed changes.

The ground stops and ATC delays at EWR are bad. During the summer CO flight 629, DEN to EWR, normally leaves at around 12:30 p.m. and is usually delayed 1 to 3 hours. Sometimes even flight 529, which arrives in EWR at 11:30 p.m. from DEN, is even delayed on the EWR end.

I wonder what CO is going to do over the longhaul to maintain their market position in the NYC area, since they can't continue to keep adding flights at EWR indefinitely. Yes, I know DL's and B6's growth at JFK has been more explosive. I am just wondering about how CO is going to protect their lead position over the long term.

I personally haven't flown into any NYC area airports in a long, time. But I remember hearing from my father (retired CO captain), and personally experiencing terrible delays at all three of the airports even 10 and 15 years ago. I can't even imagine what it must be like now.
 
RJdxer
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:37 am



Quoting GoBoeing (Reply 3):
Everything scheduled to arrive after 1PM coming from within 2000 miles is groundstopped or gets a lengthy EDCT time even on days with no wind or weather.

Of course there is wind and weather, the ATC OIS page says so!
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lincoln
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:50 am



Quoting GoBoeing (Reply 3):
Everything scheduled to arrive after 1PM coming from within 2000 miles is groundstopped or gets a lengthy EDCT time even on days with no wind or weather.

And just as an example of the follow-on effect: One of my company's clients is located on Capitol Square in Richmond, VA. In the past 9 months I've done CLE-RIC-CLE three times; I'm going to be doing it again the week of January 7th.

There are three invairable truths about this itinerary:
a) The fare will be no less than $1,100
b) The CLE-RIC segment will be ontime
c) The RIC-CLE segment will be delayed at least 90 minutes because the aircraft is coming from EWR and EWR is under a ground stop, has low ceilings, high winds, bad gas, or...

The last time I flew this itinerary -- about two weeks ago, it was part of a larger CLE-RIC-CLE-GRR-CLE, and thanks to that delay I would have misconnected in Cleveland (the agents at RIC were very helpful  Smile )

Lincoln
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA &

Mon Dec 10, 2007 2:06 am



Quoting Flyingcat (Reply 2):
Although If this occurs B6 will be hamstrung for growth in NYC without committing to frames larger than an Airbus narrowbody. Im sure they could move slots around but this will force them to expand elsewhere. IAD perhaps.

Saw an interesting documentary about the building of B6's new "super efficient" terminal, talking how it's built around the A320s and EMB170s, no allowance for anything bigger.

Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 6):
Why not put an aircraft minimum size limit on the vast majority of slots, thereby encouraging carriers to reduce frequencies and introduce larger aircraft instead ? Does Podunk, NH really need 3 RJ's a day from JFK ?

Hey, I live in Podunk, NH! We like our 3 RJ's to JFK. Actually I'd love to see a DC-3 making the run, but, hey, I'm a sentimental fool....

Quoting Jetblueguy22 (Reply 7):
Why are the airlines focusing just on JFK. What the DOT should do is to give the airlines some type of incentive if they go to surrounding airports for their domestic flights. SWF and HPN have plenty of slots.

Not a bad idea, at least for SWF.

Quoting ANother (Reply 10):
2. After an airline 'buys' them through an auction, do they really own them - or is just a lease for a fixed period of time? 6 month schedules period, for example.

I believe the ailines end up owning them, but I've never understood that. I feel the airports should lease them, and when the leases are up, they should be returned to the airport and be re-bid.
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Aircellist
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 5:02 am



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 22):
I've said it several times and I'll say it again.

On any given weekday, there are about 28 non-stop flights (when you account for code-shares) from the three NYC airports to SFO. The vast majority of these flights occur on aircraft the size of a 757 or smaller. DL uses a 738 on a number of these routes.

NOBODY needs to choose between 28 flights per day. Five or six would offer quite adequate flexibility.

If these 28 flights could be compressed into 5-6 flights per day by using large aircraft that would save some 22 flights per day. Now, imagine the same stunt being pulled for MIA, ORD, LAX, LAS, SLC, and every other major hub airline with an absurd number of flights being flown on small a/c. That alone might save as many as 300 flights/day.

And what about the little guys like B6? They can either suck it up and buy a 787/A330 for those routes or they can code-share with other airlines. But there's a point at which frequency ceases to matter because no matter what time my flight is scheduled to leave, it's not leaving then... or if it does leave, then it sits on the ground for 3 hours.

Just sounds so right, in my opinion...
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Boeing7E7
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 5:21 am

Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 6):
Why not put an aircraft minimum size limit on the vast majority of slots, thereby encouraging carriers to reduce frequencies and introduce larger aircraft instead ? Does Podunk, NH really need 3 RJ's a day from JFK ? Wouldn't one per day timed to coincide more or less with intercontinental arrivals/departures banks be enough ?

Why not just do away with deregulation? Just kidding. This is what really needs to be done. In fact, any large hub airport (FAA definition, not airline definition) shodul be able to dictate a size of aircraft during the peak hours if that airport is congested. Setting say an 80-seet limit to black out 70 seaters and below doesn't hurt anyone. Network carriers would be forced to pull out RJs for mainline and new entrants typically have 100-seaters anyway. Right now its a zero sum game. They dump RJ's in there because its cheaper than a mainline aircraft at a delay prone airport. Everyone follows suit and the problem is compounded because no-one wants to lose market share.

Quoting Jetblueguy22 (Reply 7):
What the DOT should do is to give the airlines some type of incentive if they go to surrounding airports for their domestic flights.

Like what? A cash offset for lost revenue?

Quoting Jetblueguy22 (Reply 7):
SWF and HPN have plenty of slots.

Everyone repeat after me....

US aviation was "DEREGULATED" in 1978. There is no such thing as a "slot", unless an airport is slot controlled for congestive relief. SWF and HPN do not have slots, you do not have to buy access to the airport nor do you have to buy rights to a particular route. If the market existed, the carriers would be serving the airport with more frequency or larger aircraft. They do not see demand, therfore they do not overserve that lack of demand.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
The IATA slot system has been developed over the years (near 60) as pretty much an international standard that allows the use of a limited resource in an unbiased and efficient manner.

IATA doesn't apply.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 12):
Does anyone know what the DoT can and cannot do at JFK without Congressional approval?

Not a damn thing. New York however operates as a system of airports, so they can put limitations on the size of aircraft at any one of EWR, LGA or JFK, but not all of them or more than one of them. They could if they wanted to make one airport regional, one domestic and one International as long as access for everyone is provided to the market. The problem is, all three airports are jacked. The only real solution is more capacity be it new runways, a new International only airport or another domestic airport.

What will happen is when gridlock fully sets in, the airports will get de-hubbed. The hub cariers simply won't be able to sustain the losses associated with operating there. The FAA simply needs to let this play its course and let the market dictate the future. At the core of this issue is some airline in a back room that wants more turf to protect their hub.

[Edited 2007-12-09 21:46:47]
 
MSYPI7185
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 5:39 am



Quoting Laxintl (Reply 24):
Just about every foreign airline at JFK <8 flights per day.

Would it be ok for Virgin, Air Jamaica, TACA, Air Canada, Mexicana, Emirates, Cathay, Avianca, Swiss etc.. to keep growing during peak traffic times while others (namely US carriers) would be stuck year after year holding the same frequencies will almost no hope of growth.

Here is my main concern. With the open skies btwn US & EU basically any carrier in the EU will be able to add flts to JFK and the US carriers would be unable to compete on the route during peak hours.
This would be harmful to DL, AA and UA specifically, but on the other hand could not US, CO, or NW for example begin Intl ops out of JFK. I do not know how many flts US, CO or NW have out of JFK at this time, but it would probably be easier for them to adjust schedules to take advantage of this.

Just my thoughts

Later
 
Flighty
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 5:55 am



Quoting Commavia (Reply 19):
We don't need to be artificially constraining capacity even more.

We don't? What do you call traffic lights? Those constrain capacity. They also make our cities function. Slots do the same thing for airports.

Free-for-alls don't work. Just because a resource is not infinite does not mean it is scarce.

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 4):
If you put a premium on flights during the peak time, the airlines simply pay it and redistribute it across all the flights at the airport over the course of the day

Where do you get that from? In my world, if a flight costs too much to fly, it gets cut or re-timed. Which is exactly what will happen when $5000 daily tags get put on peak time slots. The flights get cut, or the price goes up again. Bidding wars are futile because the slot rental market is liquid. Any traffic jam can be tamed by congestion pricing, even JFK. Would the result be economically optimal, yes.

The point is, the goal gets achieved, no matter what. You can't say the airport would remain crowded under peak pricing because that's simply untrue. Prices would rise until the goal is achieved, by definition. The NYC traffic jams are costing everybody in the country money. Airline disturbances like this are incredibly costly.

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 4):
The "peak pricing" crap/"contingent valuation method is the biggest load of BS I've ever heard of. The FAA was stupid enough to listen to academia who have been pushing this on airports for nearly a decade, what a bunch of clowns.

Whatever. I think the FAA is caving in to the ATA, the airline lobbying group. The airlines were going to whine about slots, so the government said fine, screw you all. Which is exactly where we are without congestion pricing: screwed.
 
rjpieces
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 6:05 am



Quoting Laxintl (Reply 24):
Would it be ok for Virgin, Air Jamaica, TACA, Air Canada, Mexicana, Emirates, Cathay, Avianca, Swiss etc.. to keep growing during peak traffic times while others (namely US carriers) would be stuck year after year holding the same frequencies will almost no hope of growth.

Interesting that you mention those particular airlines as none of them but Virgin and Swiss have significant operations during peak times...Airlines with significant evening operations like BA, AF,LH, etc have the most to lose...
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 6:11 am

Quoting Flighty (Reply 32):
In my world, if a flight costs too much to fly, it gets cut or re-timed. Which is exactly what will happen when $5000 daily tags get put on peak time slots.

In the real world, the carriers with buying power redistribute those costs across the system. Only those who can afford to pay can play. That's the definition of discriminatory pricing and is against Federal Law.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 32):
The point is, the goal gets achieved, no matter what.

Ask Boston about how their "peak pricing" worked out. It landed them in court, not to mention the fact it didn't work.

[Edited 2007-12-09 22:13:06]
 
ikramerica
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 6:20 am



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 22):
If these 28 flights could be compressed into 5-6 flights per day by using large aircraft that would save some 22 flights per day. Now, imagine the same stunt being pulled for MIA, ORD, LAX, LAS, SLC, and every other major hub airline with an absurd number of flights being flown on small a/c. That alone might save as many as 300 flights/day.

Let's just federalize it while we are at it, call it "Amsky" and run 747s on the route, and subsidize the flights too.

And what theoretical 640-700 seat planes are you planning on running on these routes (did you even do the math?) considering the backlog for A380s runs 5 years or so...  Wink
Of all the things to worry about... the Wookie has no pants.
 
commavia
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 7:56 am



Quoting DAL767400ER (Reply 20):
But remember that new runways are evil and would only lead to more flights being added instead of reducing delays, althewhile cutting down poor trees and filling innocent up innocents waters with rubble.

That's right, how could I have forgotten?

Forgive me, it's been a while since I've taken my tree hugger-NIMBY refresher course. Sorry!  sarcastic 
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 12:50 pm



Quoting STT757 (Reply 1):
It's unclear where DL would stand as they have not invested near what CO, AA and B6 have invested in their facilities.

Airlines that have operated historically at JFK, and get reduced in service, because of the slot system, will take the DOT, FAA, and NYNJPA to court to protect them selves. These will include AA, B6, CO, DL, and UA..

Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 6):
Does Podunk, NH really need 3 RJ's a day from JFK ?

If it makes money, yes, they do need it.

[

Quoting ANother (Reply 10):
Auctioning, Interesting idea. Some questions:

1. Where do they get the slots to auction? Do the confiscate a set percentage, say 10%. Or do they take them all?
2. After an airline 'buys' them through an auction, do they really own them - or is just a lease for a fixed period of time? 6 month schedules period, for example.
3. What happens if they don't use them (say 80% of the time)? Do they lose them, and do they get a refund?
4. Can anyone buy, or just airlines? and why?
5. What if an airline can't afford to pay up front? Can they pay over time ... so much a month?
6. What happens to the money? Goes to the airport? to the FAA? to the US taxpayers?
7. If the airport gets some or all of the money, where is the incentive for them to improve infrastructure? Isn't this an incentive for them to not improve? Same question if FAA gets the money.
8. Can an airline buy a slot, with the intention of not using it? This would have some pretty nasty anti-competitive effects.

While searching for 'market-based' solutions this isn't it. Using the buy-sell rule would be a (not perfect but) better solution.

A market based system is the only one that would work fairly. Government action to "balance" total operations will give some, who don't support the service access they don't need. A market based system will force these players out and only support flights that make money.

Quoting LAXintl (Reply 11):
The IATA slot system has been developed over the years (near 60) as pretty much an international standard that allows the use of a limited resource in an unbiased and efficient manner.

Slots are allocated according to historical precedence so an air carrier with a 4:20pm departure last summer timetable will get the same 4:20pm slot next summer unless they failed to operate it.

Some highlights are:
1) Slots are allocated on bi-annual basis.
2) Airlines require 80% usage factor (completion&ontime) to retain historical slots
3) Slots that fall short of the 80% mark return to a pool
4) 50% of slots in the pool are allocated to 'new entrants' as defined with 4 or less current operations at the airport.
5) Remaining 50% of pool slots are allocated based on consideration of various criteria including competition, aircraft mix, service on a new route etc..

Do you mean like ORD? Now there is a failed system. Domestic airlines are slot restricted, while International carriers can do what ever they want.

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 12):
Does anyone know what the DoT can and cannot do at JFK without Congressional approval? I know if ORD goes back to 'real' slots, Congress would have to approve it... not sure if the same is true at JFK.

Unless Congress steps in (which they will), the NYNJPA really has the last word here.
 
Mir
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:02 pm



Quoting Jetblueguy22 (Reply 7):
What the DOT should do is to give the airlines some type of incentive if they go to surrounding airports for their domestic flights. SWF and HPN have plenty of slots.

HPN will never be a major airport for the NYC area, the Greenwich NIMBYs won't stand for it.

Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 34):
Only those who can afford to pay can play. That's the definition of discriminatory pricing and is against Federal Law.

So how is an auction any different? It would still be only those who can afford to pay.

-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:08 pm



Quoting Mir (Reply 38):
So how is an auction any different? It would still be only those who can afford to pay.

Who said anything about an auction?
 
Mir
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 1:13 pm



Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 39):
Who said anything about an auction?

The thread starter did:

Quoting LAXintl (Thread starter):
The U.S. Transportation Dept. is backing away from congestion pricing for New York airports, and sources say DOT is instead looking at slot auctions as well as extending flight caps to all three New York region airports

-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 2:28 pm



Quoting Mir (Reply 40):
The thread starter did:

Roger.
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 3:35 pm



Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 30):
Why not just do away with deregulation?

Didn't we already do that?

Quoting Ikramerica (Reply 35):
And what theoretical 640-700 seat planes are you planning on running on these routes (did you even do the math?) considering the backlog for A380s runs 5 years or so...

Great idea. Doesn't NH and JL have all of their B-747-400Ds for sale?
 
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DocLightning
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 3:37 pm

People keep answering comments about forcing airlines to reduce frequency and increase aircraft size as "federalization" and "re-regulation."

Well, maybe that's a GOOD thing. When there isn't enough regulation in a given industry, the industry goes to pot. You find ground-up mice in hamburger, unsafe automobile design, complete environmental destruction in almost any industry, and other examples of putting the bottom line ahead of the customer and the community. That's why regulation exists. It exists to protect an industry from its own tendency to damage itself.

The airlines have made it clear that they intend to buy more and more small A/C and fly more and more frequent routes on smaller and smaller planes. Thus, it is time for the government to step in and say "enough is enough!"

You make a given set of slots at each airport. No more flights may be scheduled than there are slots. Period. Slots are assigned either by lottery or by auction. An airline didn't get a slot? They can code-share with an airline who did. You used to have 8 flights a day and now you can only have 3? Fine, get a 777 and combine all those silly 737 flights.

New York City is in serious trouble. If this city doesn't get its infrastructure fixed (and soon), the city is going to face a decline from being a world center of cultural power to a nothing.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
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Cubsrule
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 3:37 pm



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 37):

Do you mean like ORD? Now there is a failed system. Domestic airlines are slot restricted, while International carriers can do what ever they want.

That's incorrect. Anyone can start new international service. No one except carriers with fewer than 8 arrival authorizations can start new domestic service. How is that unfair?

Quoting Laxintl (Reply 24):

Just about every foreign airline at JFK <8 flights per day.

I know (everyone except BA, in fact), but I'm wondering how many would really grow to 8 if the government let them. I suspect AF would, and as I said, LH may add a DUS flight, but the only other carrier I could see growing that much is VS (SRB has made it pretty clear through his VX minions that he's not happy about the government stepping in at JFK)... for the vast majority of carriers, it wouldn't matter if the government alloted them 4, 8, or 20 slots.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
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kc135topboom
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 3:52 pm



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 43):
When there isn't enough regulation in a given industry, the industry goes to pot.

When something isn't regulated by the government, market forces tend to regulate that idustry. When the government regulates an industry, inefficencies tend to drive costs up, and services down. It is the government that causes an industry to go to pot.

Name one industry, or function, outside of the US Military that the US Government does well?

Quoting Cubsrule (Reply 44):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 37):

Do you mean like ORD? Now there is a failed system. Domestic airlines are slot restricted, while International carriers can do what ever they want.

That's incorrect. Anyone can start new international service. No one except carriers with fewer than 8 arrival authorizations can start new domestic service. How is that unfair?

Isn't that what I said?
 
Cubsrule
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 4:03 pm



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 45):
Isn't that what I said?

Well, yes and no. The distinction between domestic and international carriers isn't based on whose flag they fly. It's based on their destination.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more
 
roseflyer
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 4:08 pm



Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 6):
Does Podunk, NH really need 3 RJ's a day from JFK ? Wouldn't one per day timed to coincide more or less with intercontinental arrivals/departures banks be enough ?

I think the problem is that one flight that does connect to the international bank. JFK doesn't have problems with a mid morning flight before internationals are arriving at full speed. That's how small airports can keep New York service. The three airports aren't that congested 9am-1pm.

Quoting FFlyer (Reply 9):
As far as reported in media, SWF actually has one of the longest runways in the country. Capable of handling anything up to A380, AN-225, or Space Shuttle.

Oh I'm waiting for it now. Soon we will see nonstop space shuttle service between New York and London on the slightly used space shuttle fleet by the next generation maxjet/silverjet/eos.

Quoting JerseyGuy (Reply 15):
Someone has to say it so I will

Long rumored Midwest Hub City

Ah yes, another failing hub in a midwestern city that can't support it based on O/D. We all know how connection based hubs have been doing recently. STL, PIT...
If you have never designed an airplane part before, let the real designers do the work!
 
Mir
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 4:12 pm



Quoting Boeing7E7 (Reply 41):
Roger.

So if peak pricing is "discriminatory pricing", is a slot auction really all that different? I'm not implying that you think it is, it's just a question.

-Mir
7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
 
Cubsrule
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RE: DOT Considers JFK Slot Auction, New Caps LGA & EWR

Mon Dec 10, 2007 4:25 pm



Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 47):
We all know how connection based hubs have been doing recently. STL, PIT...

STL is seeing the best RASM growth of any of AA's hubs... MEM does fine as well. While places like CMH and PIT failed, smaller hubs with less local traffic than the likes of ORD and EWR can work. It just takes some nursing. (Note also that WN has a large presence at STL, so it's not like AA only makes STL work because it's a super high-fare environment).

Quoting RoseFlyer (Reply 47):

I think the problem is that one flight that does connect to the international bank. JFK doesn't have problems with a mid morning flight before internationals are arriving at full speed. That's how small airports can keep New York service. The three airports aren't that congested 9am-1pm.

The problem, though, is that these small airports have JFK service in large part for international connections. There's no practical difference between Podunk having 1 flight and having 3, because in 95% of the cities with RJ service to JFK, there is only one flight during the congested time.
I can't decide whether I miss the tulip or the bowling shoe more

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